The Next Generation of Cub Players and Plate Discipline

baezclippedThe Cubs Convention took place this past weekend. OV's own Aisle424 was present and will summarize his thoughts on it shortly (I think). In the meantime, Josh has already weighed in. Bruce Miles was all over the goings-on, as well, and his twitter feed is well worth checking out. A couple of highlights:

I know the sheen is off the new front office for some, but I still take comfort in the little things, like their understanding of how runs are generated in baseball. In 2012, Almora, Baez, and Soler combined to walk 30 times in 675 plate appearances. That's good for a 4.4% rate, which is not good at all.

Compare these quotes to erstwhile minor league director Oneri Fleita on Josh Vitters near the start of the 2011 season:

There are times when Vitters is too patient at the plate.

Coming in to the 2011 season, Vitters had walked 56 times in 1269 plate appearances. That is good for, you guessed it, a 4.4% rate.

There is something to be said for not calling out young players in public, and there is even a case to be made for not fiddling too much with a player's approach. Fleita himself made this case in to Kevin Goldstein:

You just let guys like that play. I learned a long time ago that guys who can hit .300 with power, you can teach them to hit .200 with no power, so when they have that much talent, you let them write their own script.

The bottom line, though, is that Cubs' system has a plate discipline problem, and has had that problem for as long as I can remember. The talent has not been good enough to let the players "write their own script." The difference between The Thoyer and Hendry Eras is that the former publicly acknowledges that it's a really big deal, and is evidently going to do everything they can to fix it. Jabronis like me can appreciate that.

Why extending Oneri Fleita and possibly Tim Wilken's contract doesn't matter

A part of me does wonder whether these kind of moves aren’t as bold or suggestive as I think. Consider this: we fully expect the Cubs to dump Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano this Winter, eating tens of millions of dollars in the process. Would it really be so shocking for Ricketts to be willing to eat these personnel extensions, too, if the new GM wants to bring in his own guys? — Bleacher Nation

Exactly. The days of the Cubs being unwilling to eat a contract like Milton Bradley‘s are done. When you think about that situation the Cubs handled that perfeclty in that they didn’t just release him and they actually got a player who was useful for a year. The Cubs were reportedly interested in paying a huge percentage of Soriano’s contract to trade him and will do the same with Zambrano this offseason. Fleita and Wilken if signed will make probably less than a million bucks per year combined so that won’t be an issue.

Not to mention the buyouts included in the contract for Fleita and surely included in Wilken’s if he gets one. Ace goes on a bit and reaches a different answer than I did.

I actually think the answer is yes, despite the apparent bent of my rhetorical question. Sure, the financial cost would be relatively low – I have hard time imagining that Fleita and Wilken, combined, make more than $1 million per year. But the personal cost would be quite high. What kind of name do you make for yourself when you sign guys – expressly so they don’t take opportunities with other clubs – and then can them a couple months later, knowing all the while that it was how you expected things to play out?

As cold and calculating as Ricketts might be (and that’s a compliment), I don’t think even he wants to start out in baseball with that reputation – it remains a “people” business.

It is a people business, but there are ways to handle a situation like this if it comes up. Ideally Ricketts would have told Fleita and Wilken the situation, and by including buyouts and such in their contracts, he actually did so it would seem to me that these guys are well aware of what may happen. I also think the “name” he’d make for himself is one that shows that he’s not going to meddle in the business side of things if such a decision was made. I don’t think it would reflect poorly on Ricketts, but quite the opposite to be honest.

The reality here is that Fleita was kept around because he’s familiar with the system and any GM would want him around for at least the first season since he wouldn’t be taking over until sometime in November. Wilken has made one hell of a name for himself so I think most people not named mb21 thought that Wilken would be retained anyway. After all, when Andrew Friedman took over as the Rays GM, Tim Wilken was the scouting director and he didn’t fire him. Wilken left the following year for the Cubs. 

Regardless of why the Cubs did it, or whether or not it may reflect poorly on Ricketts, signing Fleita and eventually Wilken remain mostly inconsequential. Neither is going to make that much money and the Cubs are already interested in shipping away about $60 million or more so I’m pretty sure another million won’t be an issue. 

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Oneiri Fleita Getting An Extension is Clearly a Sign of the End of the World

Bruce Levine is reporting today that Oneiri Fleita got a four-year extension as Vice President of Player Personnel earlier this week.  This is huge for a couple of reasons: 1) it means a Cubs beat reporter may have reported a story within the same calendar week as when the events actually occurred (largely believed to be an omen signaling the beginning of the end of the world) and 2) the Cubs made this move without first having a new General Manager in place (which is largely believed to be an omen signaling the beginning of the end of the world – on Twitter anyway).

I’m not nearly as concerned as the people OMGing all over the place like the Cubs just signed Aaron Miles to a 10-year, $300 million contract as a pitcher.

How much money could Oneiri Fleita possibly make? A million dollars a year?  Maybe?  I can’t find anything solid, but Ivychat Chuck said Hendry was rumored to make $2.5 million per year as the GM, so the guy reporting to him probably makes less, and probably significantly less.  That would make the Cubs on the hook to Oneiri Fleita for an additional $4-$6 million total.

I understand that is a lot of money, but when you are talking about the kind of money that streams through a major baseball organization like the Cubs, that is nothing. This is a team that is looking at pissing away tens of millions to rid themselves of Zambrano and Soriano.  What’s a few more if the new GM decides he doesn’t like Oneiri Fleita when he gets here?

There are a lot of important details missing before we all go jumping off a bridge because Ricketts made a move that is, admittedly, a bit out of the ordinary.  Is he guaranteed that position?  Is he guaranteed certain job responsibilities?  

Fleita gets four more years as VP of Player Development.  It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the Cubs create a position above Fleita (a President of Player Development?) inserted above him in the organizational hierarchy.  Shit like that happens in corporate America all the time, and we know Tom is fluent in corporate-speak and double-talk.

In the last thread, MB hypothesized that maybe the Ricketts already have the GM choices down to a short list and could have determined from each of them that they would be amenable to having Fleita kept as part of the organization if they got the job.  The fact that this has not been reported doesn’t mean anything since we are just now learning from the Chicago press that Kennedy was shot.

We know that the reason Ricketts extended Fleita is because he is highly regarded and being sought by opposing teams.  Maybe the Cubs locked him up to keep him a Cub, knowing that no contract in sports is an iron-clad blood oath between the two parties if there are other interested parties involved.  Maybe the Tigers will be willing to part with a prospect in order to get their hands on Fleita if the next GM decides he’s not his man.

The worst case scenario is that the new guy comes in and fires Fleita on the first day he’s on the job and the Cubs pissed away $4-$6 million.  That is hardly the end of the world for this team.

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