playoffs – Obstructed View

Dreamcast 96: The Dream Matchup

As Rob Manfred climaxes from another LA vs NY matchup, MLB will get their marquee championship event with the best team from each league, among the fattest payrolls with the brightest stars in the largest media markets in the world. Topics for this episode include:

What we thought about the LCS games
Who’s going to pay Juan Soto all that money
Setting up our little offseason team-building game to get the Cubs back into the postseason
Some items about TV and accessibility to baseball content

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 96: The Dream Matchup

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Pennant Chase In Progress

I feel like the term “pennant chase” is used kind of to describe the race to the postseason during the regular season, but you don’t actually get to win a pennant until you are the last team standing in the league championship series. I guess you also don’t get a pennant once you win the World Series because the prize is a hunk of metal with a bunch of pokey things that can take your eye out.

Anyway, before we get to the World Series, the final four teams will vie for their respective league’s pennant. Between the Dodgers and Mets trading beatdowns and the Yankees taking advantage of some dumbness from Cleveland in their initial game of the ALCS, I can see both series going the distance, especially when nobody can run out a full rotation anymore and have to resort to bullpen games by design or by necessity. We could see another Subway Series (great for New York, not so great for the rest of us), a New York vs LA thing, or a true underdog story of sorts. I think MLB would like the first two, but Cleveland fans wouldn’t mind another shot at not blowing a 3-1 lead?

I did notice that the World Series is doing the Friday-Saturday thing, avoiding football on Thursday and Sunday. The full schedule of remaining games is here, and I’d be curious to see who comes out on top, and we can make our best guesses in the comments.

About the MLB Postseason…

So we were talking about the way the MLB playoff system is set up in the previous post, and given how three of the road teams just advanced this past week, two of them relatively easily, I guess part of the calculus is trying to figure out a way to ensure the home team has a greater advantage. Then, once they advance out of the wild card rounds, how do you ensure the bye teams can get more of an advantage than they’ve shown since the three division winner/three wild card system was instituted? There’s an interesting article about that on MLB dot com, but given the lack of sample, it’s mostly kneejerk reactions based on recency bias right now, so perhaps everything’s fine the way it is. Especially when you figure that baseball is inherently chaotic, and nobody is going to do a best-of-75 or whatever number you need to make sure the “upsets” don’t happen as often (assuming arms don’t start falling off in the clinching game 69). I generally agree that the teams, despite getting into the postseason, have flaws that got exposed on the highest stage, but that won’t stop us from trying to figure out ways to make life easier for the better seeds, who built teams that either earned their 90+ wins or just lucked into it, but the wins are wins.

We can start by assuming that MLB will never ever reduce the number of teams making the postseason after having expanded it, because postseason = more money. We will further assume that once the A’s actually move to Vegas and Tampa Bay gets their new stadium built that MLB will expand to 32 and likely adopt the NFL’s 1 (bye) + 6 (division winners + wild cards) system per league. AC doesn’t like deliberately tiring out pitching staffs, but that’s basically what the pitch clock may be doing anyway (plus the icky injury bug that’s cropped up lately that bears investigation), and that’s part of the appeal behind getting that bye, right? And per the article I shared before, it makes sense to get the bye than not, because at least you get the rest and the ability to set the rotation prior to the games that count.

Regardless, we are far from the system where you had to win the league, or there was only one division winner getting to the NLCS and that was it. There is also a better system than a wild card getting equal footing against the top overall league seed, or a one-and-done game. Perhaps the grousing at this time is just because people are making excuses for their team, or sour grapes from the players who lost, but given the unlikely prospect of shortening the season and the reluctance to extend the postseason deeper into November (eww), I am thinking this is the best possible system at this time.

Maybe just try to get the bye, and hope that when you play games that count, that you don’t suck at it. This is also a message to teams like the Cubs to not assume that 84-87 wins will get you in, because that certainly was not the case this year. I get that trying to build a team projected for 95+ wins is hard, but that confers the best possible advantage, and then you just have to try to fight past the chaos regardless of your seed in the postseason. I guess that’s the appeal of the NCAA basketball tournament anyway, everyone appreciates the underdog, but a team that plows through the playoffs can rightfully be crowned a legend.

All is Lost

I’ve been diligently looking for work and have some interviews here and there, hopefully something sticks soon. And I guess the timing is good for when I start an eventual new job because the Cubs’ season is over:

The Cubs now sit at 79-76 on the season. The Diamondbacks and Mets currently hold the last 2 National League Wild-Card spots with the Braves still challenging behind them in the standings.

“It was a tough year, obviously,” Kyle Hendricks said after Saturday’s loss. “Just up-and-down. It just seemed like we’d catch steam and then couldn’t maintain it.

“Just a really up-and-down year. Not surprising we’re at about .500. Just how it went for us this year. When we played our good baseball, played fundamental, we could beat anybody. But we just couldn’t put it together for the full year this year.”
Marquee Sports Network

Technically there are a week of games remaining, including the finale against the Nationals that has yet to be played as I clickety-clack, but (soon-to-be former) Cubs World Series hero Kyle Hendricks is correct in that the lack of consistency and the absolutely putrid months of May and June (seriously, what was up with that) killed the season. It’s a disappointment on many levels for a team we all thought could make some noise at the beginning of the year. At least they weren’t eliminated in like July like certain other Chicago-area teams.

As the Cubs play out the string, it was interesting to see Craig Counsell and Jameson Taillon address the fact that they were so far behind the Milwaukee Brewers (seriously, who saw this gap coming?) and how they really needed to work to catch up. Taillon reiterated the need to generate a 90-win team at minimum. Whether we expected the Brewers to be this good, or whether they deserve to be this good, is immaterial, as the Cubs could have and should have done more to address the flaws that we were all witness to during this season. I think there are plenty of positives to take into the next season, including how they did make a late season surge again (a bit too little and too late, of course), but as Counsell implied, some difficult decisions will be made as Jed Hoyer enters his final guaranteed season as president of baseball operations.

I can say with some level of certainty that guys like Kyle Hendricks (sad face) and Drew Smyly (meh) won’t be back. Whether Cody Bellinger opts out or not is up in the air, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong maturing into the everyday center fielder, Bellinger’s value if he stayed on the Cubs may take a hit, so that is worth monitoring as the offseason draws closer. I’m going to take an educated guess that the Cubs also upgrade their bench, at the minimum, and find a way to get more consistent relievers although we all know that bullpen arms are volatile.

The important thing is to raise the projection in the offseason, as this team will max out at 86 wins if they run the table in the remaining time. That is probably highly unlikely as they are hard pressed to sweep a Phillies club that needs to compete for the top seed, and a Reds team with very little to lose and some bright spots of their own, but as many have lamented throughout 2024, if a few of the saves hadn’t been blown and if a few more hits had dropped, things would be really different. So the issue is not only the projection, but luck and preparation. Whoever joins the club, whether it is a promotion from the minors, a trade, or a free agent signing, needs to be onboarded effectively. Slumps need to be nipped faster. Struggles need to be addressed with more urgency. I don’t envy the people in charge who have to deal with it.

Ricketts was selling Cubs Convention tickets pretty recently, so as we wait for the regular season to end and watch another World Series without the Cubs, let’s hope they give us something to be excited about in what we hope to be the inflection point of this “retool” period. Baseball is better when the Cubs are in the playoffs, and while I am thankful that they played meaningful games almost into the final week of the season, there is a lot of work to do to get them back into the dance.

In Before Getting the Live Chicken

In between searching for new employment and whatever else is going on in real life right now, I thought I’d temper some expectations and doom with some math. Funny enough, the only mention of “math” in the OV archives is one of the old comics about Joe Mather of all people, but I’m too lazy to grab something math-y from Al Gore’s internet, so this can stay and be fun. Incidentally, once upon a time when the Cubs sucked, I watched Joe Mather walk off an obviously superior Cardinals team at Wrigley, so strange things do happen in baseball.

We are at the point where we need more strange things to happen in favor of the Cubs. The problem, of course, is the prolonged slump in May and June that put them in this position in the first place (kind of the opposite of what happened last year). Having one of the first major bullpen fails that actually led to a loss after a hot streak was annoying but not unexpected. The problem is that certain clubs above the Cubs in the standings aren’t losing at the same time. Arizona and San Diego are too far away. Milwaukee has the division pretty much locked up. At 71-67, the Cubs have 24 games remaining to make up either the 10 game deficit in the division (probably not going to happen) or the 3.5 games (more like 4.5 with having lost pretty much every tiebreaker) between them and Atlanta, not to mention having to outplay the Mets, so it’s doable, just very very difficult and improbable.

The month of September has plenty of winnable games, but also a few land mines. Theoretically the Cubs can take Paul Skenes to school and then win their series against the Pirates despite laying a stinker in the opener, but that will be a tough task. Then the Yankees with a recovered Anthony Rizzo come into town, and that is not an easy matchup even if said Yankees have been struggling. Then a West Coast road trip to visit the Dodgers (not easy) and Coors (chaos incarnate) before a hopefully easier homestand against the A’s and Nationals. The last road trip of the year is three in Philly, who have the lead in their division but haven’t clinched anything yet, before finishing off the season at home against the Reds, who by that point you hope will be done.

With those 24 games remaining, the Cubs could go .500 (which would suck) and get to 83 wins, which would match last year’s surprising (yet ultimately disappointing) record, only this season we expected slightly better, so let’s not do that. Given that nobody wants to lose, the Cubs probably need anywhere from 86 to 90 wins to get that last wild card, so that’s between 15-9 (.625) and 19-5 (.792). Given their blitz through some easier competition and some of the matchups coming up, those are certainly still possible, as long as they don’t get fully embarrassed against the good teams and do what they need to against the bottom dwellers. While I would refrain from making any bets, I would also not completely dismiss this slim but still very real possibility. And even for those who gave up in June, at least you’re paying attention again, eh?

Dreamcast 94: Mission – Improbable!

With the Cubs’ odds shrinking by the day, we jabronis got together to commiserate and cling to the last threads of hope before mathematical elimination. Stuff we talked about:

The standings and the huge climb ahead if the Cubs are to make a stretch run;
Improvements and great performances from the big league club and the minor leaguers;
Random MLB stuff, including those goofy new pitching rules being brainstormed;
Baseball is hard!

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 94: Mission - Improbable!

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The Ever-Diminishing Odds

It’s a Cubs off day, so that’s about time to check in on our favorite squadron’s slim chances of making a difference this season…

Currently, the Cubs stand at 61-64, in third place in the NL Central, 11.5 games back of Milwaukee for the division (kiss that goodbye), and 5.5 games back of Atlanta for that final wild card spot.
To get that wild card, the Cubs will have to leapfrog the Cardinals, the Giants, the Mets, and the aforementioned Atlanta squadron.
Fangraphs odds give the Cubs virtually no chance (0.4%) of winning the division, no chance whatsoever of clinching a first round bye (dying laughing), and only a 3.1% overall chance of making the postseason by any means (cue Dumb and Dumber gif).

Given all this, I guess we continue to be thankful that most of the National League still blows and the Cubs haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet, unlike certain neighbors to the south. The road to the end of the season gets decidedly easier, though that won’t mean much if the Cubs can’t muster up a run, let alone many runs, in the games that remain. Here’s the schedule going forward for those curious…

Off day (that’s today!)
3x Tigers at home
3x @ Marlins
3x @ Pirates (maybe they’ll miss Skenes or he’ll have been shut down because they’re cheap)
Off day
3x @ Nats
3x Pirates at home
Off day
3x Yankees at home
3x @ Dodgers (eww travel)
Off days
3x @ Rockies (gross, Coors)
3x A’s at home
4x Nats at home
3x @ Phillies (hope they clinched a bye or tops in the league by then so they can coast)
Off day
3x Reds at home to close the season

Napkin math says they need at least 85 wins to even have a chance, which is two more than they got all last year. With 37 games remaining, that’s a 24-13 record. They should probably aim to do better than this, with some red-hot prospects in Iowa that might yet get the call in September, but as berselius says, play better and things might happen.

Dreamcast 90: This is Fine

RC & AC have passionate discussions about those wacky infield fly rules with interference baked in, along with some Cubs stuff you probably already are steamed about regarding the poor performances and what lies ahead. RC is moving back to Chicago soon but there might be one more episode on the off day right before the big road trip back east.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 90: This is Fine

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Dreamcast 85: Unchecked Optimism

We’re mere hours from Opening Day if you consider anything less than 48 “mere,” so it’s time to do our season preview episode!

In this edition:

The great Shohei Ohtani gambling caper
Cubs roster, rotation, bullpen, lineup, and outlook
MLB predictions including awards and postseason

We’ll probably talk about the MLBPA snafus later on after we get a few games that actually count under our belt.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 85: Unchecked Optimism

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Dreamcast 76: Magnificent Seven

Congratulations to the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks for giving MLB a postseason ratings nightmare, and for preventing me from calling this episode “The Full Dombrowski” just for berselius.

Topics include:

Our enjoyment of the postseason so far
Whether the playoff structure and the bye is good or bad
Things to take care of for the Cubs this offseason to get an invite to the party next year

We’ll try to do something right after the World Series where I actually do some research to see what the Cubs can feasibly do to make a 2024 postseason run a reality.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast

Dreamcast 76: Magnificent Seven

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