Tag: playoffs

Championship Series, As If the Two “Leagues” Weren’t Just One MLB Anymore

And then there were four.

The division series this year were pretty lopsided and not the way any of us would have thought, but in retrospect, that teams that got bounced, despite having the better seed, probably should have done more with their pitching. In further retrospect, I guess you don’t expect so many injuries or that much ineffectiveness all at once (see: Cubs), but they just chose the worst possible time to slump and/or have their flaws exposed, so this is what we are left with.

Since the Rangers and Phillies remain alive, they can’t really say anything about money not working for the playoffs (at least, half the time here). And since at least one Atlanta player is accepting responsibility, I guess we also have to consider that the players should just, well, play better.

I’m sure some random somber and/or controversial things happened when Nick Castellanos blasted his two homers.

Anyway, the Texas Rangers are at the Houston Astros starting on Sunday, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are at the Philadelphia Phillies starting on Monday for the championship series. I think it’ll be a rematch of Houston-Philly from last year, but baseball has that silly habit of being chaotic, so we will wait and see.

Dreamcast 75: The Post-Mortem

The postseason will continue without the Cubs again, but we got together anyway to talk about what a fun season this was despite the disappointing end. Topics include:

  • Things we liked and definitely did not like
  • How to fix some of the slumpy and stupid issues the Cubs dealt with this season
  • The mastery (or lack thereof) of David Ross
  • Wish list for the offseason, including Cody Bellinger (maybe)
  • AC’s undying love for Nick Madrigal

This one’s a longer one because we had a lot of stuff to say. We’ll get together again just before the World Series in case there’s some Cubs-related news that popped up but mostly just to talk about the playoffs probably.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 75: The Post-Mortem
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The Next Phase

Other than being the title of a pretty cool Star Trek episode, this coming week marks the next phase in the Cubs race towards extra baseball in October. As it stands, the Cubs stand 3.5 games back of NL Central leader Milwaukee, so they didn’t lose too much ground after an unfortunate (but ultimately acceptable) split in Cincinnati. They are also 2.5 games back of Philly for the top wild card spot and 3 games up on the final spot, so there is a cushion to work with should they falter this week. However, said teams behind the Cubs have all had their issues, which is why that cushion remains despite the hiccups with the bullpen and offense and possibly David Ross being a conundrum.

Let’s take a look at the week’s slate:

Cubs –> at home vs SF (3) & AZ (4); I’m hoping for 4-3 or better, basically they should avoid losing either series.

Reds –> vs Mariners (3) & STL (3); Mariners may be helpful as they are on a tear, but the Cardinals have lost some devil magic so who knows with them. Reds have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cubs so it would be best for the Reds to crash this week.

Diamondbacks –> they will host the Rockies (3) before heading to Chicago and I’m pretty sure the Rockies will be absolutely useless in that series, but strange things are afoot this time of year and the various Rockies playing for their next shot might not mind being spoilers.

Philly –> at Padres (3) & vs Marlins (3); the Padres just won a crucial series (for the Giants anyway) against SF before the Wrigley series so they might yet play spoiler some more, while the Marlins are suddenly one of the contenders tied for that final wild card spot so they should be suitably motivated to work over the Phillies.

Marlins –> 3 vs LA before their series in Philly, so maybe the Dodgers work them over since LA is still mathematically in the hunt for the top seed instead of their current second seed, either way the Dodgers are most likely earning a bye.

Giants –> after Wrigley, they’ll host the Rockies for 3 and as stated above, the Rockies are likely to be useless so it behooves the Cubs to win their series as they did earlier this season.

Brewers –> @ PIT (3) & @ Yankees (3); I expect the Pirates to be of no help and the Yankees did just sweep the Astros for the first time in a decade, but they’ve been trash for a while and the Brewers did channel the dark dimension for their most recent winning run before they ran into the Cubs, so if they continue to run the table the division may be slipping away, though if the Cubs hold serve they’ll keep that series at the end of the season very intriguing.

You wanted meaningful baseball in September, you got it.

Cubs v. Pirates – October 7, 2015

It's here. Jake Arrieta vs. Gerrit Cole. Let's do this.

Lineups (my best guess)

Pirates

RF Polanco (L)
LF Marte (R)
CF McCutchen (R)
3B Ramirez (R)
2B Walker (S)
1B Alvarez (L)
C Cervelli (R)
SS Mercer (R)
SP Cole (R)

Cubs

CF Fowler (S)
RF Schwarber (L)
LF Bryant (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
2B Castro (R)
C Montero (L)
SS Russell (R)
SP Arrieta (R)
3B Baez (R)

When the Pirates are at bat:

As excellent has Arrieta has been, he's "only" been great in strikeouts this year. Pedro Alvarez aside, the Pirates don't strike out too often. Since Kang is injured and Sean Rodriguez does not figure to start in this game, only Alvarez is even league average in strikeout rate this year. The point I'm trying to get at is that I would expect a good amount of balls in play, which does increase (slightly) the variance of outcomes for Arrieta. Since Arrieta is an incredible pitcher, the increased variance is a bad thing. 

Gregory Polanco has been an unquestioned disappointment this season. Polanco is the only outfielder on the team with an OPS+ under 100 (it's 92). Even worse, his power just hasn't been there; an ISO of .125 isn't what you are hoping for from your everyday rightfielder.

ISO among qualified RF, 2015
Name Team ISO wOBA wRC+ WAR
Bryce Harper Nationals 0.319 0.461 198 9.5
Jose Bautista Blue Jays 0.285 0.389 148 4.5
Carlos Gonzalez Rockies 0.269 0.364 114 2.4
Nelson Cruz Mariners 0.264 0.396 158 4.8
J.D. Martinez Tigers 0.253 0.372 137 5
Ryan Braun Brewers 0.213 0.366 129 2.8
Jay Bruce Reds 0.209 0.309 91 0.1
Marlon Byrd – – – 0.206 0.317 100 1
Curtis Granderson Mets 0.198 0.357 132 5.1
Carlos Beltran Yankees 0.195 0.346 119 1.9
Shin-Soo Choo Rangers 0.187 0.365 127 3.5
Mark Trumbo – – – 0.187 0.327 108 1.1
Brandon Moss – – – 0.181 0.308 94 0.6
Matt Kemp Padres 0.178 0.325 110 0.4
Josh Reddick Athletics 0.177 0.338 117 3
Torii Hunter Twins 0.169 0.304 90 0.5
Kole Calhoun Angels 0.167 0.317 105 3.8
Gerardo Parra – – – 0.161 0.334 108 0.4
Jason Heyward Cardinals 0.146 0.346 121 6
Gregory Polanco Pirates 0.125 0.304 94 2.3
Avisail Garcia White Sox 0.108 0.295 83 -1.1
Ender Inciarte Diamondbacks 0.105 0.325 101 3.3
Nick Markakis Braves 0.08 0.327 107 1.6

This isn't to say that Polanco doesn't have redeeming qualities. He gets on base and plays pretty good defense (that one play notwithstanding). He just isn't the offensive force that the Pirates have been looking for; Clint Hurdle minimizes the power shortage by leading him off and hoping that the power bats knock him in.

Starling Marte is one of my favorite players. He doesn't really get any press, but he's been very good for his entire career. This year, he cut out the strikeouts and played incredible outfield defense, maybe even Gold Glove caliber at LF. He hit .287/.337/.444 and added some home runs to his arsenal (19), though his ISO stayed the same. He even steals bases (30 this year, 30 last year), and can generally take the extra base on a ball in play. 

Luckily for Arrieta, Marte struggles against cutters, though perhaps he struggles against them because they've been thrown at him by Jake Arrieta. 

The Pirates are generally pull hitters. Pedro Alvarez, as you would expect given his hitting profile, is the biggest pull hitter on the team now that Kang is injured, but both Marte and Walker are also big pull guys. It's easy to imagine a Marte groundball to the left side deciding a run in this game; he's probably the biggest candidate on the team to cause an error for either Russell or CUBS 3B, so if that happens, it isn't completely out of the blue.

 

Sometimes I forget just how good Andrew McCutchen really is. His lowest OBP in the last 4 years is .400; he had 673 PA that season, hit 31 HR, and recorded 6.8 WAR on his way to a 3rd place MVP vote (he won it the next year). Cutch isn't as fast as he used to be, but he can still burn you on the basepaths; pair that with Montero's seeming inability to throw runners out this year and you can imagine him pushing the envelope in an attempt to score runs. A game in which McCutchen DOESN'T reach base in a game in which you have to think the Cubs have won.

Andrew McCutchen is basically the only Pirate that has had success against Jake Arrieta. In 27 plate appearances, he's batted .348/.444/.435. If you think that's unfair to Jake due to his early-career struggles, that's not exactly true: in 2015, Cutch went .333/.467/.417. McCutchen is an MVP-caliber player; the only one the Pirates have. You can afford to pitch around him and force the rest of this lineup to beat you.

The other two offensive players with a long book on Arrieta have really, really struggled. In 21 PA, Aramis Ramirez went .105/.190/.105 and literally did not reach base against him this year. Pedro Alvarez went .118/.211/.284 on him in his career. As can be assumed with nearly every hitter in baseball, Arrieta has been a ton to handle this season.

Aramis Ramirez does not strike out. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't really get on base either. He owns a .246/.297/.423 line this year; he can still hurt you with his power but he'll have the second lowest OBP in the starting lineup. It's sort of ridiculous how often he makes contact; This year, he made contact with 90.0% percent of pitches he swung at in the strike zone (average is 86.7%) and 83.5% of pitches out of the zone (average is 78.9%); pair that with an extremely aggressive approach and Ramirez does not really have long plate appearances. This is a good thing for a pitcher hoping to get through 8 innings, like Arrieta. 

Neil Walker is extremely steady. You know you are going to get a wRC+ around 110, average defense at 2B, home run totals in the teens. That player has tremendous value, especially at the $8 million the Pirates paid him. Walker is another good baserunner and a switch hitter; unfortunately, he's much, much better from the left side than he is from the right. for all intents and purposes, consider him a lefty (and a pull lefty at that). 

When I think of Pedro Alvarez, I'm always thinking that he sucks – and defensively, that's true. He's a full-time DH at this point, someone who struggles to even play first base badly. What surprised me is how relatively new this phenomenon is. He was a bad defender last year, and then only below average before then. If he's only averagely bad at first, you can swallow a .243/.318/.469 line with 27 HR (what he hit this year). In a one-game series, I think they'll probably stick with him there, though there are rumblings of replacing him with Sean Rodriguez. 

Alvarez has made real progress with reducing his strikeouts lately. He sits at a 26.7% rate for the year. That's bad, but it isn't in the 30s like it was for the 2011-2013 seasons. He's always drawn his walks, and high-variance players like Alvarez are precisely the ones that can ruin the day of a very good pitcher like Jake. If it makes sense, Kyle Hendricks would rather face Pedro Alvarez more than Jake Arrieta would.

Francisco Cervelli has been the revelation of the year for the Pirates. Injuries and perceived ineffective have made Cervelli into the bottom half of a platoon for his entire career until 2015, where he signed a $1 million contract to replace Russell Martin. He did almost exactly that; he posted a .295/.370/.401 line with elite catcher defense this season. He isn't going to crush the ball out of the park, but he will get on base with high regularity, and that's extremely important. His talents are somewhat wasted at the 7th spot in the lineup, what with Mercer and Cole to follow him, but that's where he hits anyway.

Jordy Mercer hasn't been very good this year. Mercer's ticket to MLB paychecks in the past have been "play very good defense, and hit just enough to justify keeping him around and batting him 8th." Unfortunately for Jordy, his power completely evaporated this season, so while his walks and strikeouts stayed the same, his offense was just about the worst in baseball this season.

Lowest wOBA, >400 innings
Name Team wOBA wRC+
Omar Infante Royals 0.238 44
J.J. Hardy Orioles 0.248 49
Ichiro Suzuki Marlins 0.250 53
Billy Hamilton Reds 0.251 52
Chris Owings Diamondbacks 0.255 52
Carlos Sanchez White Sox 0.262 60
Jordy Mercer Pirates 0.265 68
Wilson Ramos Nationals 0.265 63
Eric Sogard Athletics 0.266 67

That's a very sad list. Mercer is good with the glove, but he's no Simmons or Lindor. That means that after this season, he'll almost certainly struggle to find a spot on a major lineup unless he catches on like a Herrera-type or someone takes a chance on his power returning.

Gerrit Cole is a pretty good hitting pitcher, notching a career .171/.200/.193 line (the league average line for pitchers is .131/.158/.168).

This is the lineup that Arrieta will most likely face. Not a ton of strikeouts, but the power isn't really there either. Barring some defensive miscues, this is a type of lineup Arrieta can and has handled. Opponents hit .185/.236/.271 against Arrieta on the year. His year wOBA against is .225; his second half wOBA against is .186. His wOBA on full counts is identical to Jordy Mercer's wOBA in general (.265). When Gerrit Cole outhits the sum of opponents Arrieta has faced in his last 3 months, you know it's going to be tough for Pittsburgh to score. 

When the Cubs are at the plate:

Dexter Fowler had a really nice stretch of the season in August (where he hit .298/.408/.587). However, since then, he's hit .219/.315/.325. Fowler is definitely a QO guy, and I hope he takes it. That said, I don't think Fowler has a long-term future with this team, considering just how many younger players are in front of him. After the dust settled, Fowler had a .256/.346/.411 season with average (statistically) to below-average (eye test) defense.

One thing that is important is that Fowler will be hitting lefty against Cole in this game. Fowler is a groundball hitter, and many of those groundballs will be hit right at Pedro Alvarez. Much like Marte will test the sometimes spotty defense of Kris Bryant, Fowler is liable to force Alvarez to get at a groundball hit his way. I like his odds there. 

Kyle Schwarber's slump is very overrated. Sure, in his last 28 days, he's hitting .188/.333/.333 (when your slump has an OBP that exceeds the league average, you're doing alright). The problem is merely the steady diet of left-handed pitching that he's seen. Against lefties, Schwarber is an awful .143/.213/.268. Against a righty, like Gerrit Cole, he's hitting .278/.396/.557 on the year. Schwarber has the 9th highest wOBA against righties this year with 200 or more PA. He is truly an elite hitter against the majority pitching hand already, and that's utterly remarkable. No Cub hits righties anything like he does, and if Schwarber isn't in the lineup, the Cubs simply don't have their best lineup out there. 

It's important to note that I have Schwarber in RF and Bryant in LF. That's due to the cavernous left field dimensions in PNC Park. Schwarber is an okay runner, but Bryant is a better runner than he is. 

Kris Bryant is the Cubs MVP this year, if you don't allow pitchers. He did lead the league in strikeouts this year; that may make you blush. I see it as a GREAT thing. Bryant put up a 6 WAR season while having something he clearly needs to work on. I once remarked that players with Bryant's minor league strike rate historically do not succeed in the majors (the best player to come out of AAA with a strikeout rate above 27% at the time was Tyler Flowers). Well, Bryant's strikeout rate went up to 30.6%, and yet nobody cared. That's the leeway you get when you walk 11.8% of the time, hit 26 home runs, and slash .275/.369/.488. 

Bryant has some defensive issues to work on if he wants to play 3B in the future, namely his inexplicable knack for leading Rizzo into the first base line with nearly every throw early on in the season (though to his credit, that quieted down as the season went on). His 6'5" stature also limits his lifespan at the position (Chipper at 6'4" is the only comp I can think of that made it there long-term), but with some offseason fielding work he can probably get another 3-4 years of pretty good defense there (throwing excepted). 

It's interesting to note that Bryant struggles away from Wrigley Field. While at the Friendly Confines, he hits .311/.408/.629. Away from it, he's .243/.333/.360. The latter is still a decent line; the OBP is over half the Pirates' starters in this game. The real issue there is the lack of power, for one reason or another. I'm not concerned any more than I would be, but it's something to look at.

Anthony Rizzo has debatably had the best start to a Cubs career since integration (and as you might know, I don't really consider pre-integration baseball as baseball), and undebatably since Ernie Banks.

Highest OPS, First 5 Cubs seasons, min. 2000 PA
Rk Player OPS+ PA From To G HR OPS Pos
1 Ernie Banks 131 2601 1953 1957 613 136 0.881 *6/5
2 Anthony Rizzo 129 2375 2012 2015 547 101 0.842 *3/H
3 Billy Williams 122 2056 1959 1963 496 74 0.83 *7/9H
4 George Altman 122 2016 1959 1962 539 74 0.836 98/H37
5 Mark Grace 118 3200 1988 1992 751 46 0.788 *3/H
6 Ron Santo 118 3089 1960 1964 734 104 0.808 *5/6H
7 Ryne Sandberg 111 2759 1982 1985 623 60 0.776 *45/H6
8 Jody Davis 100 2338 1981 1985 629 76 0.735 *2/H
9 Starlin Castro 99 3186 2010 2014 740 51 0.735 *6/H

Do you know what the absolute best part is? He's under team control until 2021. That's as long as Kris Bryant, for what it's worth. (And Kyle Schwarber. And Addison Russell.) Anthony chopped down his strikeouts (18.8% to 15.0%), but it came with a tradeoff of weaker overall contact. Trading a sure out (the K) for a maybe out (soft contact) is still a skill, even if turns a .311 BABIP into a .289. Rizzo his .278/.387/.512 with 31 HR, and even stole 17 bases. While he no longer has much of a L/R platoon advantage going, he still does better against righties (.905 OPS).

Something else interesting to note is that Cole likes to pitch lefties down and away. That is actually where Rizzo is at his most effective. I'll be interested to see where Cole decides to pitch Rizzo. Will he try to go away from his bread and butter, or will he go strength on strength?

Let's go back to August 6th. Starlin Castro, the starting SS, goes 0-4. It's the worst season in a career that has had a very bad season in it. He's hitting .236/.271/.304, and he has found himself out of a starting job, and possibly out of the Cubs long-term plans. He doesn't play for 5 days, and when he does, he's a defensive replacement at second base, a position he has never once played in the majors. 

Since that moment, Starlin Castro has hit .353/.373/.588. Not since 2010 has Castro had a streak like that (if you want to see something incredible, go back and look at Castro's 2010 season. His July was just incredible.) I had real doubts that Castro would make the post-season roster a month ago; I'm pretty sure he's starting at second base now. It really is an incredible turnaround. Can a player win Comeback Player of the Month?

The thing about Castro is even when he's really bad (and he is capable of being really bad), he still doesn't really strikeout. He has a preternatural ability to put the bat on the ball; it's just where that ball is going that is sometimes the problem. For that reason, he seems like he'd be best suited batting directly behind the pitcher, and other players that don't get on base. Castro is fast, but not fast enough to escape the double play if his dribblers dribble right to an infielder. When Castro has a .588 slugging, however, you probably want as many players on base in front of him as you can possibly get. 

Miguel Montero's primary contribution to the season as been #wearegood. His secondary contribution has been a surprisingly potent bat in the middle of the Cubs lineup. Mideseason slump aside (where he was battling an injury), Montero has really been a force for the Cubs (at least on the offensive side of the ball). Montero is a lefty, but has a reverse split this year (.749 OPS vs. RHP, .786 vs. LHP). 

The best part of Montero's year is the re-emergence of his on-base skills. Montero reached base in 34.5% of his plate appearances this season, a mark he hadn't reached since 2012 (when he finished 32nd in MVP voting, hilariously). Montero's defensive skills have left a little to be desired this season, but with a bat as good as his, he's still been a good part of the season.

Interestingly, and cryptically, if you go to Addison Russell's B-Ref page you'll see a Steve Horvat sponsors it. The message is just "Salt Lake City, Utah." if you google "steve horvat salt lake city," you get a hit for a law firm in Utah, so I assume it's him. If that's the case, why wouldn't you…you know…include some sort of message? Was this a random adwords hit? Viral marketing for your law firm? I really don't get it. 

If Addison Russell was still an Athletic, I'm fairly sure that Oakland fans would look back on the 2015 season and say "well, that sucked. At least that young shortstop looks promising. I hope we never trade him for a two-month rental." On the Cubs, he was a bit of a disappointment considering the offensive output of the rest of the young Cubs. Russell had a decent first year, but it wasn't earth-shattering. He really struggled against LHP (.527 OPS), but he was better than average against the righties (.746 OPS). That said, he got better as the season progressed, and when he switched to shortstop, he hit .259/.315/.465. Add to that a stellar defensive performance at both positions, and you get a very solid rookie season (3.4 WAR!!!) that almost nobody cares about. Consider that Russell's bWAR matches Castro's career high.

Arrieta hit .152/.163/.266 this year. While he struck out 54.2% of the time, his .114 ISO this year is higher than Francisco Cervelli's. Arrieta's ISO against is .081; it is literally true that Arrieta is likelier to hit for extra bases on a base hit than a random Pirate. Arrieta allowed 56 extra-base hits in 870 PA (6.4% of plate appearances); Arrieta had 4 extra-base hits in 83 PA (4.8% of plate appearances). Isn't that just insane?

It's certainly possible that Tommy La Stella gets the nod instead of Javier Baez here. I lean Javy because he's the better defender and La Stella has a reverse split anyways (taking away the importance of being left-handed). That said, La Stella is "taking grounders at 3B" while Bryant practices in left today. Still, Baez has been great defensively and La Stella is limited in the best of circumstances. Pretty interestingly, Baez had 0.5 fWAR in 28 games, which translates into around 2.8 fWAR if he had the whole season. That was 100% defensive. Baez cut his strikeouts down to 30.0% (!), and only had a .118 ISO. It was evident that he traded his crazy leg kick and upper-tier power for a little more swing control. Javy may still yet carve out a career as a premier power threat, but that only happens if he can get the strikeouts down. Gerrit Cole isn't the type of person to test that out on…so maybe it is Tommy La Stella.

Gerrit Cole had a filthy season. His ERA was 2.60, his FIP was 2.66, and he had 5.4 fWAR. He didn't walk anyone (5.3% walk rate), and his HR/9 rate was less than half of the league average. In an average season, Gerrit Cole probably finishes 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young voting. He might finish 6th this year.

Cole pounds the zone down and away from both lefties and righties, and he throws 96mph heat. His slider is pretty much unhittable.

Both teams are hoping to get through the game with just their starters. If that doesn't happen, the Pirates have the slight edge in bullpens. I like Melancon a lot, even if he doesn't strike out as many as you'd think an elite closer should. He gets away with it by never walking anyone and inducing really shitty contact. Those skills combined to give him 51 saves this year, most in the majors. Tony Watson is similarly dominant; even the other pen arms (Joakim Soria, Joe Blanton, Arquimedes Caminero, Antonio Bastardo) have been great for the Pirates this year. The Cubs bullpen…isn't like that. While Rondon has been great nearly all year, I don't trust Strop or Wood nearly as much as I'd trust their corsair counterparts. I'm freely willing to admit that might be because I've seen way more of the Cubs than the Pirates and thus prejudge them to be worse.

The Pirates' bench took a hit when Kang got hurt. That took Mercer off the bench and put him back into starting duty. Still, Michael Morse and Josh Harrison (former Cub!) are still capable bench bats. After that, it gets light. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler and Tommy La Stella are capable starters that just don't happen to have a starting job with the Cubs. Chris Coghlan is even better than that. I haven't even mentioned Austin Jackson, who has a punchers chance at starting in this game and has been great for the Cubs since he was acquired. I think that the Cubs' ability to put great pinch hitters in to face whomever the matchup dictates more than neutralizes the difference in bullpen quality.

It's impossible to predict one game of baseball, but everything seems to lean slightly to the Cubs here. The Cubs have the better lineup and the better pitcher. They have the deeper bench (not really important in a one-game playoff, but you never know), and the bullpen isn't so much worse that it matters overmuch. 

I can't wait for this game.

 

 

 

NDLS Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (88-74) vs Washington Nationals (98-64)

The Nats lost 102 and 103 games in 2008 and 2009, respectively, and improved to 69-93 in 2010. Last year they finished the year with a 80-81 record, which was a marked improvement. Still, it's tough to read too much into a team whose leader in rWAR was a relief pitcher (Tyler Clippard). There was no doubt about it this year though. The Nationals led the majors in wins and run differential, and were just six runs behind the Reds in runs allowed. Since May 22, they held the lead in a division that was widely regarded as the best in the NL going into the year.

The Cardinals, despite losing Albert Pujols to the Angels and the good Chris Carpenter to being Chris Carpenter, were still slightly favored to win the division over the upstart Reds. They got off to a hot start, leading the division for the first month or so but relinquished the lead to the Reds in late May, and were never able to catch them again. They had the best run differential in the division for most of the year, and finished at +117 which was second best in the NL. They were only 2.5 games back of the Reds in July, and I kept expecting their record to regress upwards based on that number but it never really happened. I guess 88 wins is nothing to sneeze at though.

Projected Starting lineups

Cardinals Nationals
CF Jon Jay RF Jayson Werth
RF Carlos Beltran CF Bryce Harper
LF Matt Holliday 3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Allen Craig 1B Adam LaRoche
C Yadier Molina LF Mike Morse
3B David Freese SS Ian Desmond
2B Daniel Descalso 2B Danny Espinosa
SS Pete Kozma C Kurt Suzuki

Rotations

Cardinals: Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, Ross Detweiler

Team Statistics (NL ranks)

  Cardinals Nationals
wRC+ 107 (1st) 102 (3rd)
BSR -1.2 (9th) -18.3 (16th)
UZR -20.4 (12th) 8.7 (6th)
DRS +13 (5th) -13 (10th)
SP FIP- 91 (2nd) 89 (1st)
RP FIP- 103 (14th) 96 (5th)

In case you were wondering, Mike Morse (-5.3) and Adam LaRoche (-3.4) were the biggest baserunning offenders for the Nationals, but it takes a team to put up a total that terrible.

Game Schedule

Game 1 (@StL): Sunday, 2:07 CT

Game 2 (@StL): Monday, 3:07 CT

Game 3 (@WSN): Wednesday, TBA

Game 4 (@WSN): Thursday, TBA

Game 5 (@WSN): Friday, TBA

Storylines you may or may not care about

The Nationals finally let Teddy Roosevelt win their Presidents Race. If they get swept, expect to hear all sorts of black cat/goat/Babe Ruth level team jinexes.

You might not have heard, but Stephen Strasburg was shut down and is missing the playoffs. That should get more of the blame than Teddy if they lose. I still can't believe how badly the Nats handled that innings limit.

Awkward photo fan favorite Lance Berkman is done for the year, and probably his career, due to a knee injury suffered early this year. Sorry, MO.

I can't wait to see what Genius Moves Cards manager Mike Matheny will pull out this postseason. He learned a lot from TLR, so I'm expecting at least three innings to have three or more pitching changes during this series.

Prediction

It's hard not to pick the Nationals here, but as we know anything can happen in a short series. *Gives finger to Diamondbacks, Dodgers*

Series preview: San Francisco Giants (94-68) vs Cincinnati Reds (97-65)

The Reds jockeyed with several other NL Central teams (including the Pirates!) for the divisional lead for the first half of the season, but after July 19 they moved into first place and never looked back. The closest they got to losing the lead was on August 9th, after NL MVP Shawn Camp exerted his powers and defeated the Reds to bring their lead down to 2.5 games. After that the Reds went on a five game winning streak and were never less than six games up the rest of the year.

The Giants basically had one opponent this year in their longtime rivals the Dodgers. The Dodgers got off to a strong start to the year, and the Giants were 7.5 games back in late May. Tim Lincecum lost whatever it was that made him Tim Lincecum, but Matt Cain threw a perfect game in mid-June in a run that led to the Giants tying for the divisional lead at the end of the month. For the next month and a half the Giants and Dodgers had eleven lead changes, and oddly enough the Giants only kept the lead after their center fielder and MVP candidate Melky Cabrera was busted for using testosterone. I'm disapponted in Cabrera, only becuase I was looking forward to the stupid contract that the Royals were inevitably going to offer to him next year.

Projected starting lineups:

Reds Giants
2B Brandon Phillips CF Angel Pagan
SS Zack Cozart 2B Marco Scutaro
1B Joey Votto 3B Pablo Sandoval
LF Ryan Ludwick C Buster Posey
RF Jay Bruce RF Hunter Pence
3B Scott Rolen 1B Brandon Belt
C Ryan Hanigan LF Xavier Nady
CF Drew Stubbs SS Brandon Crawford

It's not exactly clear what's going on with the back end of the Giants lineup. Joaquin Arias has picked up a lot of starts at SS lately, and Nady/Blanco seem to be in a platoon situation in LF. The Reds have chosen Zack Cozart and his .288 OBP to bat in front of perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto. I guess he must have plus speed, because stolen bases what you really need when you have a high slugging batter right behind you.

Rotations

Giants: Derrek Lee, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito

Reds: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey

Team Statistics (NL Ranks):

  • wRC+: Giants 99 (4th), Reds 93 (9th)
  • BSR: Reds 5.3 (4th), Giants 4.3 (5th)
  • SP FIP- : Reds 98 (7th), Giants 102 (10th)
  • RP FIP- : Reds 82 (1st), Giants 99 (10th)
  • UZR: Reds 11.9 (4th), Giants 8.6 (7th)
  • DRS: Reds 32 (2nd), Giants -7 (8th)

Maybe I should have picked the Giants as my most overrated team, huh.

Game schedule:

Game 1 (@SFO): Saturday, 8:37 PM CT

Game 2 (@SFO): Sunday, 8:37 PM CT

Game 3 (@CIN): Tuesday, 4:37 PM CT

Game 4 (@CIN): Wednesday, TBA

Game 5 (@CIN): Thursday, TBA

Storylines you may or may not care about:

I wonder which Cabrera will be mentioned more tomorrow: Miguel's Triple Crown or Melky's PED suspension.

Will Big Time Timmy Tim show up in the playoffs? The Giants are considering starting Zito over him in game three, which shows how much his star has fallen.

The Reds are starting Bronson Arroyo in a playoff game. It would be fitting if he faces off against Barry Zito. If they make it to the WS, I hope the Orioles do too so he can face off with Joe Saunders in the LOL-Bowl.

Speaking of futility, Ryan Theriot was the Giants starting 2B for half the year, and batted second for 64 games.

Reds manager Dusty Baker was hospitalized with an irregular heartbeat for four days during the Cubs series last month, and may even have had a mild stroke. He's lost 20+ pounds and is back with the Reds to face the last team that he took to the World Series.

Buster Posey is probably the NL MVP, and has had a relatively quiet MVP season. I haven't really heard any buzz for anyone in the NL other than Posey, and that's just been from Giants fans. Joey Votto probably would have been the MVP if he hadn't missed a nearly two months with a knee injury in the middle of the season. He led the NL with a .474 OBP. Those are Playstation numbers. He also had a .567 SLG, 6th in the NL, but somehow only 14 HRs. He came in second to Rodrgio's 50 doubles with 44 of his own.

Projection:

I can't seem to find the BPro odds either, but I think the Reds are the clear favorites in this series.

Wild Card Friday “Series” Previews, including an all-new playoff results simulator!

Tonight's games:

St. Louis at Atlanta: Kyle Lohse, RHP (2.86, 3.51, 3.96) vs Kris Medlen, RHP (1.57, 2.42, 2.97), 4:07 PM CT

It's hard to believe that Lohse has put up nearly 11 fWAR since the Cardinals picked him up off the scrap heap. I would say he's a member of the Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame, except he's not as good as Wandy. I wouldn't be surprised if Dave Duncan becomes the first pitching coach inducted to the HOF.

I didn't even realize Medlen was a starter until a few weeks ago, let alone that he missed almost all of last year following Tommy John surgery. I think I keep mixing him up with Braves* closer Craig Kimbrel. Though in my defense he's only made 12 starts this year. He's posted a 0.91 ERA in those starts, so he's got that going for him. Note to the Nationals – see how the Braves have their top young pitcher throwing in the playoffs? That would sure be a nice thing to have.

*Thanks to @CapitolAvenue, I keep misspelling the Braves as Barves.

Baltimore at Texas: Joe Saunders, LOL (4.07, 4.08, 4.25) vs Yu Darvish, RHP (3.90, 3.29, 3.52) 7:37 PM CT

I don't know what's more baffling, the Orioles postseason run with a run differential of +7 or the fact that Joe Fucking Saunders put up a 3.63 ERA, 3.77 FIP in the AL east after moving to Baltimore. The Orioles deserve to lose this game on principle for starting Joe Saunders in an elimination game.

Darvish had a rocky first few starts in MLB, walking 13 in 17.2 innings, but since then he's been pretty much exactly what the Rangers have been hoping for. In his debut year, he struck out 221 batters in 191.1 innings and issued 89 walks, posting 5.1 fWAR.

Predictions:

One of the reasons why posts have slowed down here at OV is because we've been working on a top secret wild card playoff game simulator. After weeks of argument and optimization, here's how it works.

  1. Reach into your pocket and grab a coin
  2. Assign one team to each face
  3. Flip it to see what face comes up

The results of this extremely scientific simulator says the winners will be the Braves and the Rangers.

Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs New York Yankees (97-65)

This series already began in disappointment, as the marquee matchup between extremely likely Cy Young winner Justing Verlander and C.C. Sabathia was suspended due to rain in the second inning. The game will resume tonight with different starters and the score 1-1. I said last night that it was good for the Yankees given how great Verlander is, but C.C. is also a great pitcher and there’s a hugh dropoff in talent for both sides.

Team Overviews

Team stats, AL rank in parentheses

Detroit New York
wOBA .336 (5th) .346 (3rd)
UBR -6.8 (12th) 1.3 (6th)

UZR

 -3.7 (9th) 6.4 (5th)
DRS -15 (12th) -9 (10th)
SP FIP 3.94 (6th) 3.97 (7th)
RP FIP 3.98 (7th) 3.65 (3rd)

Both of these teams have a little less firepower than I thought, stat-wise. They’re both great teams but no particular numbers blow me away as they did in the TB-TEX series.

Detroit’s offense was overwhelmingly led by Miguel Cabrera’s monster season, in which he posted a .436 wOBA and a whopping 65.6 wRAA and a slash line of .344/.448/.586. His .365 BABIP certainly helped, but Cabrera hit the cover off the ball this year. After Cabrera the two other largest contributers were C Alex Avila (.383 wOBA) and sort-of C Victor Martinez (.368 wOBA). Lucky for the Tigers they can use the DH, since they had three guys for two positions there. Cabrera’s huge year more than made up for disappointing seasons from the usually underrated Brandon Inge (.247 wOBA in 303 PAs) and the shambling remains of Magglio Ordonez (.283 wOBA in 357 PAs). Ordonez has still been getting a few starts a week (I’m guessing due to platoon advantage), but Inge has pretty much lost his job to Wilson Betemit. It’s a bummer, as Inge is one of my favorite baseball stories – a catcher who converted to 3b and became an elite defender.

On the pitching side, it’s not quite Verlander and pray for rain, but he is far and away better than the rest of the rotation. The top four spots each made more than 30 starts (Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Brad Penny) and the fifth spot was bounced around between Phil Coke and a bunch of roster filler before the relatively unkown Doug Fister siezed the job after being acquired from Seattle. Fister has easily passed Penny on the depth chart and is probably the second best pitcher on the team now. Hot-doggin’ Jose Valverde is the Tigers closer, but the most notable name in the Pirates bullpen is former Cubs prospect Al Albuquerque, who was traded for Jeff Baker. He’s had a Marmol-like year, striking out 67 while walking 29 in 43.1 innings.

The Yankees offense was much more spread around than the one-man wrecking crew of Cabrera. Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez all had solid years at the plate, posting 15 or more wRAA each. LF Brett Gardner had a mediocre year at the plate but still managed to swipe nearly 50 bases while putting up monster defensive numbers (UZR and DRS and Men’s Fitness agree). Jorge Posada finally fell apart this year, unable to catch and posting a .309 wOBA mostly as a DH. They got about as much value as you would expect from the 4-year deal they signed with him before the 2008 season, when he was a 36 year old catcher.

On the pitching side they’ve got C.C., who has had yet another big year and will get yet another big contract this offseason, and a bunch of palatable guys. Nova is a guy who looks like a solid average MLBer going forward, and fellow Yankee developee Phil Hughes still has some work to do to get back to his previous 2.5 WAR-ish form. The rest of the Yankee rotation is staffed with retreads like Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, and A.J. Burnett, who Rothschild was supposed to fix but kept on sucking. With the rainout there’s a chance A.J. could make an appearance in this series. There’s no need to talk about the back of the bullpen with this team, but the pitchers in front of him have struggled a bit, most notably by the unwanted by Cashman high-profile FA signing Rafael Soriano. RHP David Robinson meanwhile, who I had never heard of this year, has had a monster season posting a 1.84 FIP over 66.2 innings for the team.

Pitching Matchups

ERA, FIP, xFIP listed for each pitcher

Saturday (Friday): Ivan Nova, RHP (3.70, 4.01, 4.16) vs Doug Fister, RHP (2.83, 3.02, 3.61), 7:37 PM CT

Nova seems like an under the radar guy, as with all the frenzy over Yankees prospects by their fans/media he never really got any attention over the likes of Betances, Hughes, and Montero. But he’s a solid pitcher and a ground ball machine. He was solid down the stretch, and since returning to the team in the end of July he’s only given up more than three runs twice, once in a blowout win over the Royals and in the final game against the Red Sox.

Fister had a quietly solid 2010 with the Mariners, posting a 3.65 FIP over 171 innings despite striking out less than five batters per nine. Fister’s strikeout rate regressed upward this year, but his pinpoint control was even better (1.54 BB/9).

Sunday: Max Scherzer, RHP (4.43, 4.14, 3.70) vs Freddy Garcia, RHP (3.62, 4.12, 4.36), 2:00 PM CT

I remember when Scherzer was coming up with Arizona a few years ago many scouts were worried that he wouldn’t be able to stick as a starter. He’s proved his doubters wrong, posting 30 starts or more in each of his three full seasons as a starter. Scherzer had some bad luck with the home run ball this year but generally was right in line with his previous two solid seasons.

It seems like Garcia has been pitching forever, but he’s only 34. After stinking up the joint last year with the White Sox he posted yet another solid year with the Yankees. His strikeout rate is still hovering a bit below 6, but most of his skill lies in not issuing free passes and he’s maintainted that this year.

Tuesday: C.C. Sabathia, LHP (3.00, 2.88, 3.02) vs Justin Verlander, RHP (2.40, 2.99, 3.12)

There’s been some rumbling that Sabathia might get the extra rest but I don’t buy it. Colon or Burnett could take this start if the Yankees grab a 2-0 series lead, but otherwise it should be CC. For all the buzz about Verlander being a lock for the Cy this year (a product of his 24 Wins and some BABIP luck), Sabathia has had a better year. The two pitchers have farily similar peripherals, but the difference with Sabathia is that he gets more ground balls. Of course, CC does not have a 100 mph fastball.

Wednesday:  A.J. Burnett, RHP (5.15, 4.77, 3.86) vs Rick Porcello, (4.75, 4.06, 4.02)

Did Rothschild “fix” A.J. Burnett? Sort of. Burnett’s strikeout rate jumped by nearly a batter an inning this year, but his walk and gopherball rates did not improve. There’s also a very good chance that the strikeout improvement was simply regression, as last year’s 6.99 K/9 rate looks like an outlier on his career numbers.

Porcello is a sinkerballer so take his FIP numbers with a grain of salt. He succeeds the way that all sinkerballers need to succeed – he pounds the strike zone. IIRC Porcello is a guy that Ryno has lamented the Cubs not taking over Vitters.

Friday: Ivan Nova, RHP vs Doug Fister, RHP

Prediction

Yankees in four

Continue reading “Series Preview: Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs New York Yankees (97-65)”

Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) at Texas Rangers (96-66)

I’m going to write my usual previews for each of the playoff series. I’ll say flat out that I don’t follow the AL at all, so any of you Rays fans who aren’t still in a daze should feel free to chime in with comments/inevitable corrections to anything I say here.

Before we get to the Rays, let’s stop and applaud Texas for their great season. Unlike the Rays heart-attack finish, Texas has either led or shared the AL West division lead since May 16. However, despite the fact that their eventual margin of victory over the Angels was ten wins they kept it close for nearly the entire season. During that streak of 121 games, their division lead was three games or less for 94 of them, so the Angels made them sweat. They finished one game ahead of the Tigers for the honor of not playing the Yankees in the first round.

There’s not much more I can say about the Rays season that wasn’t said on Wednesday night. That was probably the most exciting night of baseball I’ve witnessed since September 14, 2008.

Team Overviews

Team stats, with AL rank in parentheses

Rays Rangers
wOBA .320 (7th) .348 (2nd)
UBR 4.8 (3rd) 23.0 (1st)
UZR 53.7 (1st) 25.9 (4th)
DRS 77 (1st) 45 (3rd)
SP FIP 3.99 (8th) 3.80 (3rd)
RP FIP 4.14 (10th) 4.38 (13th)

The rangers have been undersold by just about everyone. They’re a great team. Most surprising was that baserunning number – the team just doesn’t make many mistakes on the bases. Andrus, Kinsler, and Young all have very good numbers, and slugging CF Nelson Cruz is the only non-catcher with a significantly negative number.

Offensively, the most amazing line was put up by 2B Ian Kinsler, who posted a .370 wOBA despite a .243 BABIP, good enough for 6.2 oWAR. Angels castoff Mike Napoli might have been the difference between Texas making the playoffs and the Angels watching from home – he posted a .444 wOBA in 432 PAs. No batter had a truly putrid year – about the only negative thing you can say about the Texas offense is that their first baseman, Mitch Moreland, is barely better than replacement level. Hilariously, Michael Young was getting a lot of MVP love from the twitters despite the fact that he ranked 6th on the team in WAR among offensive players alone (too lazy to compute, but about the same by oWAR). Maybe I’m forgetting the extra 5 gWAR (gritWAR).

Pitching is always what held Texas back, but Colby Lewis aside they all had good years (and Lewis’s was merely average). Most importantly, all five of their starters stayed healthy. There were only five games this season that weren’t started by C.J. Wilson, GW’s boy Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando, or Colby Lewis. Their bullpen was a little shakier, but in the playoffs the top relievers matter more, and they have a good unit fronted by Neftali Feliz, Zombie Darren Oliver, and former Padre Mike Adams.

I’ve barely looked at Tampa’s numbers this year, so bear with me Rays fans. What I find most amusing at first glance is that while Longoria had a “down year”, I’m guessing due to an injury, he still managed to post a 6 WAR season (merely 5 oWAR) with a .239 BABIP. And he was paid only 2 million! It’s going to be a long time before a team gets more value out of a contract than Tampa with Longoria, unless he looks back, fires his agent, and his new agent tells him to hold out for more money (sorry for that image, Rays fans). The only players to put up significantly poor offensive numbers were Reid Breignac (-1.1 oWAR in 264 PAs) and Dan Johnson, though I think Rays fans might forgive him.

On the pitching side the Rays stayed mostly healthy, with the exception of Jeff Niemann who missed a month or so in May/June with a back injury. His back was bothering him a bit in late September as well, so it’s something to keep an eye on. The other four members of the rotation threw 29 or more starts, but the most intriguing pitcher is top prospect Matt Moore, who was called up during the playoff push and struck out 11 Yankees in his first MLB start. The Rays must trust him, seeing as they gave him the first start in the playoffs over the more experienced Niemann and Davis. Aside from Moore’s inexperience and Niemann’s back, the Rays other cause for concern could be likely Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson. He’s going to be a solid pitcher for many years with the Rays, but his 2.95 ERA is more a product of a .223 BABIP as his peripheral numbers give him a 4.72 xFIP on the year. He’s not seeing a huge innings jump from last year (31 innings), but if the Rays move further into the postseason he may look tired. I don’t think the team would complain if they made it far enough to worry about his innings load however.

Pitching matchups

ERA, FIP, and xFIP listed

Friday: Matt Moore, LHP (2.89, 2.17, 1.85) vs C. J. Wilson, LHP (2.94, 3.24, 3.41), 4:07 PM CT

After watching the Cubs all season this series will feel strange given the number of left-handed starters on each team.

Moore has thrown mostly fastballs in his brief stint in the majors, which average out at around 96. He also throws the occasional curveball and changeup. There’s not much we can say from his major league numbers, but his minor league numbers certainly suggest that fastball is a pretty good one. The highest FIP that Moore has produced since he was promoted to A-ball in 2009 was 2.83, and he’s easily struck out well more than a batter per inning at every level he’s pitched at. He’s only pitched 20 or so more innings than he did last year so fatigue shouldn’t be that big of a problem either.

Wilson had the best season of his career, perfect timing from his standpoint as he’ll be a free agent this offseason. It’s hard to believe that any pitcher playing half his home games in Texas (especially this summer) could put up a 2.98 ERA, though to be fair he did pitch better on the road. A big part of his success this year was finding the plate – he walked slightly less than three batters per nine, much better than his earlier numbers which were comfortably around the four batters per nine range. He also upped his strikeouts and continues to get ground balls. Some team, possibly the Cubs, is going to pay him a lot of money this offseason.

Saturday: James Shields, RHP (2.82, 3.42, 3.25) vs Derek Holland, LHP (3.95, 3.94, 3.76) 6:07 PM CT

Shields was the poster child for regression to the mean (and then some) this season. I can’t count how many times I heard people talking about how Shields’s 5.18 ERA last year was largely driven by his .341 BABIP and some bad HR variance. The batted-ball script flipped almost symmetrically this year, as he posted a .258 BABIP this year on the way to his 2.82 ERA, while his peripherals stayed almost exactly the same. He also pitched nearly 250 innings this year, which might lead to some problems this postseason. He’s not showing any signs of it though, going seven innings or more in every start since the beginning of August, and holding the Yankees to two runs over eight and two thirds innings on Monday.

I’m looking for something interesting to say about Holland but can’t seem to find anything at all (laughing). He’s a solid, consisten pitcher who puts up good-to great numbers without standing out in any particular area. According to fangraphs his fastball is his best pitch, which averages around 94 mph.

The starters for the rest of the games are all TBA, so I’m just going to spitball these depending on who is the best pitcher available

Monday:  Colby Lewis, RHP (4.40, 4.54, 4.10) vs  David Price, LHP (3.49, 3.32, 3.32), 4:07 PM CT

I think these two are the most likely starters for this game. Lewis hasn’t had the greatest year, but Ogando has more than doubled his workload from last year (and was showing signs of wearing down), and while Harrison has had a nice 2011 he was hammered in his three previous years when called up to the majors so they might want to ease him in a bit. Lewis, of course, is a pitcher who sucked early in his career, bouncing around between the Rangers, Tigers, and A’s before saving face in Japan and resurrecting his career. He came back last year and posted a 4.6 WAR season with Texas, but things were a little rockier this year, mostly due to the gopherball. Lewis is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so the Rangers are likely to avoid pitching him in Arlington this postseason.

Hellickson would be available for this game, but there’s little question that the Rays would start him over their nominal ace given the chance. Price was nails as the Rays began their playoff push (or more accurately, the Red Sox began their collapes), posting back to back double digit strikeout games vs Toronto and Baltimore after going 8 innings in three straight starts against fellow playoff contenders NYY, BOS, and DET. Since then Price hasn’t quite been able to replicate that success (well, regression), and was hit hard by the Yankees in game 162 before Longoria and Dan Johnson slugged them to the win.

Tuesday: Matt Harrison, LHP (3.39, 3.52, 3.85) vs Jeremy Hellickson, RHP (2.95, 4.44, 4.72), TBA

Harrison’s success is a bit of a head scratcher. He posted FIPs above 5 in each of his stints in the majors going back to 2008. They weren’t just cups of coffee either – he posted at least 60 innings in all three seasons. It’s not that surprising given that he’s a ground-ball pitcher, but this year he did a better job of finding the plate and had a bit of luck with home runs, which led to a successful season. As I alluded to above, Harrison only threw 85 innings last year (since the Rangers bullpen-tested him) so they need to keep an eye on him. Unlike Ogando, however, he finished the season strong posting a 2.73 FIP in September.

I don’t have much to say about Hellickson that I didn’t mention above. He’s had a lot of luck with BABIP and HRs this year, but on the other hand his strikeout and walk rates are much worse than his minor league record would suggest. I can’t wait until the Rays somehow manage to sign him and Moore to 8 year, $14million dollar contracts.

Thursday: James Shields, RHP vs C. J. Wilson, LHP, TBA

If this series goes five, I’d be shocked if anyone other than these two get the starts. That’s a great potential matchup

Prediction

This should be a great series, probably the best of all the divisional matchups. I think Texas takes it in four games, though if the Rays had clinched earlier and were able to line up their rotation it would be too close to call (though I’d still give Texas the slight edge).

Continue reading “Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) at Texas Rangers (96-66)”

Expand the Playoffs ASAP

Major League Baseball should add more playoff teams. Now. And they shouldn’t stop at just one more wild card team. They might as well add two and force one of the division winners to prove themselves with an extra postseason round. 

Bud Selig reiterated this week his belief that the playoff field would expand to ten teams as early as 2012. The wild cards have proved they belong in the postseason. Since the wild card was introduced in 1995 (technically 1994, the year MLB proved that having zero teams in the playoffs was a bad idea), wild card teams have a 139-133 postseason record (.511). That’s a pretty decent sample size. The wild card concept (and playoff expansion in general) was originally greeted with much skepticism, but thus far the teams first place forgot have fared better in October than their divisional-champion opposition.

Their success shouldn’t surprise us. A wild card team can easily have the second best record in the league, and that was the one of the initial justifications for adding them: ensure that the team with the second-highest win total reach the postseason. Adding another wild card will make it impossible for the team with the third-highest win total to miss the playoffs. That’s good, I guess, but it’s not enough.

Adding one wild card per league and one extra postseason series is a way of making the lesser teams in the league earn their place in the later rounds. It rewards, in theory, teams that have proved their worth by winning their divisions. The problem is, history has shown us that division winners as a group are slightly inferior to wild card teams. Isn’t that what the 139-133 record tells us? So shouldn’t at least one divisional winner have to play its way into the divisional round of the playoffs? I believe so.

This weird mini-round pitting wild card against wild card threatens only the other wild card teams. The same wild card teams that have, as a group, shown they belong in the postseason just as much as the division winners do. They shouldn’t be penalized for the fact that MLB’s divisional alignment is stupid. But they will.

I know a lot of people bemoan playoff expansion because it waters down the field. Well, in the past that hasn’t been the case. It also makes the playoffs more exciting for more fans. Cal Ripken and the homerun boom have been credited for saving baseball after the 1994 debacle, but playoff expansion gets too easily dismissed as a savior. Expanding the postseason makes October more interesting. It makes the pennant chases of September fun to watch. It even makes August, July, and June more bearable knowing that the definition of contention is broad enough to include almost anyone.

Especially as Cubs fans, that should come as a welcome innovation.

Continue reading “Expand the Playoffs ASAP”