The 2013 PECOTA projections are out and I thought I'd post some of the Cubs below. Since you have to be a subscriber in order to download the spreadsheet, I'm only going to include PA and wOBA, which I calculated using the basic formula. For pitchers I'll only show IP and FIP (I calculated this too).
PECOTA is projecting the Cubs only score 664 runs so it's not a powerhouse offense or anything. Castro is expected to have the most value at 3.4 WARP and no one else, using the depth charts section of Baseball Prospectus, is projected with more than 1.9 WARP.
PECOTA loves Kyuji Fujikawa and still really likes Carlos Marmol, but there's still going to be a closer controversy there if both perform as PECOTA expects. As for Jeff Samardzija, I'd not put a whole lot of weight in these forecasts. He beat them all last year because it was clear he had improved. The projections are still weighting the seasons prior to 2012 in which he mostly sucked. PECOTA doesn't think much of Arodys Vizcaino.
PECOTA likes the Cubs pitching. Only the Reds in the NL Central are projected to allow fewer than the 706 runs the Cubs are projected to allow.
Overall, PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to finish in 5th place in the NL Central with 77 wins.
Over at The Cub Contrarian, Kyle used an estimated WAR for players to get a team win total. I thought I'd do the same thing, but I'm going to do it two ways: projections and my wild ass guesses.
I could easily see Castillo being a 2 WAR player, but I'm not buying it. I could also see him being replacement level, but I think he'll end up adding some value, but not a whole lot. Dioner Navarro is a waste of a roster spot and perhaps the most overpaid player in baseball history in that he's earning infinitely more than he deserves to be paid.
I think Rizzo is a very good young player, but I don't believe he's a future superstar. I think he'll make some all-star teams and provide a lot of value while being paid little. That sounds like what the Cubs need.
Barney isn't much of a hitter, but he's a fantastic fielder. Put him in the 8th spot (9th would be better if the pitcher wasn't batting) and let him do his thing with the glove.
Don't say I'm not an optimistic person because I just predicted that this horrible duo would actually provide positive value. Not much and I'm inclined to go with replacement level, but I'm just too optimistic a person for that nonsense.
Shortstop: Starlin Castro (3.5), backups (hopefully there aren't any)
Like Rizzo, I think Castro is a very good young player, but future superstar probably isn't what he'll become. Coming off his worst offensive season he'll be trying his hardest. Hopefully he can take some more pitches and walk more. If he can do that, he could become a very good hitter. As it is now, he's a bit better than average at the plate. Defense is still a big question mark.
I don't ever expect much of anything out of the backups. Their job is to basically hold the job down a day here and a day there. Inconsistent playing time makes it worthless to try and predict what these guys will do in my opinion.
I don't think Feldman will be in the rotation long. He's not all that good. The top 3 aren't anything special, but they're not bad either. Baker will probably have a worse year than projected due to returning from TJS, but he could still provide some positive value
Bullpen: (2.0)
Like the bench, I find it useless to try and predict what you're going to get from a reliever in such a small sample. I do think we'll see Carlos Marmol have a better year than last year before being traded near the deadline. I have no clue what to expect from Kyuji Fujikawa. Shawn Camp is OK and so is James Russell. As long as Rafael Dolis doesn't actually close games this year, I'll consider the bullpen outstanding.
Total: 24.5 WAR
Replacement level is generally thought to be a .300 winning percentage, which is equal to 48.6 wins over 162 games. Let's get started.
So my wild ass guess is that the Cubs win 73 games. Kyle on The Cub Contrarion got 80-82, but he was using a .330 replacement level team and was even more optimistic than the optimistic me.
Projections (CAIRO)
In table format…
Player
oWAR
pWAR
Fld
WAR
Anthony Rizzo
1.7
1
1.8
Darwin Barney
0.3
9
1.2
Luis Valbuena
1.0
0
1.0
Ian Stewart
0.6
-4
0.2
Starlin Castro
2.5
-4
2.1
Alfonso Soriano
0.9
-2
0.7
David DeJesus
0.9
-2
0.7
Nate Schierholtz
0.6
-1
0.5
Backups
2.0
2.0
Jeff Samardzija
*1.5
*3.1
Matt Garza
2.6
2.6
Edwin Jackson
2.8
2.8
Scott Baker
*0.2
*1.6
Scott Feldman
1.1
1.1
Bullpen
2
2.0
Total
23.4
CAIRO only projected 30 innings for Scott Baker so I used the newly released ZiPS projection of 1.6 instead. For Samardzija, CAIRO was still projecting some relief appearances since he'd been a reliever in 2011 so I also used the 3.1 ZiPS projection.
The projections version (better than my wild ass guesses) makes the Cubs a 72 win team.
I was curious which players had the best games in 2012 for this shitty team we follow. I used Win Probability Added (WPA) from Baseball Reference to compile the list. There's no reason to write more of an introduction than that so here they are.
Despite Wood's up and down season, he ended up having an OK year and this is only the first of three times he'll appear on this list. In this game Wood threw 7 innings and didn't allow a run in a 6-1 Cubs victory over the Mets on June 25.
The Pirates return to mediocrity or worse had already hit by the time September 16th rolled around, but hte Cubs came back from a 6-1 score to beat them 13-9. Rizzo was 3-5 with 6 RBI. He hit 2 home runs and a double. Surprisingly, this is the only appearance for him on this list.
16. Travis Wood, .425 WPA
Travis Wood's 2 best games cames agains the Astros. This one was on September 12th. He threw 7.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run as the Cubs won 5-1. Wood had the 5th, 6th and 7th highest single game WPA for a Cubs pitcher this past season.
On May 9th Maholm bettered Tim Hudson as the Cubs beat the team he'd later play for. Maholm threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 3 and struckout 3.
14. Alfonso Soriano, .432 WPA
Soriano hit a 2-run home run in the 6th inning to give the Cubs an 8-7 lead on May 28th. They'd win 11-7 and Soriano went 3-4.
In one of the very few Cubs games that actually made me excited enough to care about Cubs baseball, Barney hit a game-tying 2-runhome run in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs against the Cardinals on September 21st. It had 2 of the better performances by a Cub this year. We'll get to the other one later.
I guess I haven't been keeping track because this seems like the first game on the list in which the Cubs lost. On May 3rd the Cubs took a 3-0 lead into the 9th inning behind Dempster's great start. Carlos Marmol didn't record an out before the score was tied and Rafael Dolis lost it in the 10th.
Although Soriano was homerless in April, he did go 3-5 on April 24th. The final of those hits was a walk-off single in the 10th inning against the Cardinals.
Soriano's walk-off hit was made possible by LaHair's game-tying home run in the 9th inning. LaHair was 2-4 with a walk and a home run on the day.
9. Alfonso Soriano. .464 WPA
On June 8th against the Twins, Soriano hit a game-tying home run in the 8th inning. He went 3-5 on the day, but the Cubs lost in the 10th.
8. Ryan Dempster, .506 WPA
On Opening Day the Cubs hosted the Nationals and Dempster threw 7.2 innings, allowed only 2 hits, a run, walked 3 and struckout 10. The Cubs lost 2-1 and Stephen Strasburg who would later be shut down for good because the Nationals were liking their 2012 season too much.
7. Alfonso Soriano, .512 WPA
The Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 8-1 on July 13th thanks to Soriano's 4-4 day with 2 home runs. Not too surprisingly, Soriano appeared on this list more times than any other player though 7th was the highest.
6. Bryan LaHair, .522 WPA
In a June 7th loss in Milwaukee, LaHair hit a game-tying pinch hit home run in the 8th inning. The Cubs would lose 4-3 in the 10th.
5. David DeJesus, .532 WPA
In the game that Barney hit the game-tying home run in the 9th, DeJesus had the walk-off single scoring Brett Jackson in the 10th. DeJesus was 4-6 and had 1 RBI.
4. Darwin Barney, .545 WPA
Barney went 2-3 with a couple walks on May 30th when the Cubs beat the Padres 8-7. Starlin Castro tied the game in the 8th and Barney hit a walk-off home run in the 9th.
Samardzija's 8 inning, 1 hit, 0 run, 1 BB and 5 K performance on July 23 in Pittsburgh was the single best performance by a Cubs pitcher all season. The teams combined for 6 hits and 2 runs, but the Cubs squeaked away with a win by having only 4 hits. One of the most boring games of the year had one of the best starts of the season. Funny how that works out.
2. David DeJesus, .627 WPA
The Cubs lost 8-7 in 13 innings to the Brewers, but DeJesus was 2-4 with 5 RBI. DeJesus didn't even start the game either. The Cubs trailed 1-0 in the 7th when DeJesus came to bat with the bases loaded. His grand slam gave the Cubs a big lead late in Milwaukee, but Cubs bullpen. Down 1 in the 9th, DeJesus tripled home Ian Stewart.
Joe Mather: better than Josh Vitters1. Joe Mather, .755 WPA
If you can't laugh that Joe fucking Mather had the best game of any Cubs player all season, you have no sense of humor. One of the worst players in all of baseball in 2012 actually managed to have the best game of any Cub in their entire shitty season. I don't know about the rest of you, but that makes me laugh. I've been laughing about it since I decided to write this article. If yiou're wondering why he's here, he had a 2-run single in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals driving in the tying and winning runs with 2 outs in the game. Mather was 2-3 with a walk.
We're only 31 games into the season, but I was curious for some unkown reason who had the best game of any player on the team. Win Probability Added (WPA) is the perfect stat for this. Below are the top 10 WPA's of the season for the Cubs.
10. Matt Garza, April 29th @ Phillies: The Cubs won 5-1 behind Garza's 7 inning, 1 hit performance. He also walked only 1 and struckout 10. This is the only time Garza is in the top 10, but this start wasn't even his best one of the season if we use Game Score. He has the top 2 game scores of the season for Cubs pitchers with an 84 in this one and an 85 on April 12th. WPA: .353
9. Jeff Samardzija, May 2nd @ Reds: The Cubs won this one 3-1 behind Samardzija's 7.2 innings. He allowed 3 hits and a run while walking 2 and striking out 7. WPA: .365
8. Jeff Samardzija, April 24th vs Cardinals: Samardzija out-pitched Adam Wainwright as the Cubs won 3-2. Samardzija threw 6.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, walked a couple and struckout 9. WPA: .368
7. Jeff Samardzija, April 8th vs Nationals: The Cubs beat Jordan Zimmerman and the Nationals 4-3. Samardzija nearly completed this game as he threw 8.2 innings, allowed 4 hits, 3 runs (only 1 earned), walked no one and struckout 8. WPA: .380
6. Ryan Dempster, May 3rd @ Reds: The 2nd night in the row the Cubs got a brilliant performance by a pitcher, but this time they lost. Dempster went 8 innings, didn't allow a run and allowed only 3 hits. He walked 1 and struckout 6. The Cubs led 3-0 entering the 9th and Carlos Marmol allowed 3 runs without recording an out. WPA: .380
5. Paul Maholm, May 9th vs Braves: Maholm has an ERA just over 4 and 4 wins on the season while Dempster has no wins and a league leading 1.02 ERA. Anyway, in this game Maholm was excellent as the Cubs beat the Braves 1-0. You remember this since it was the last game they played. He threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits, no runs, 3 walks and struckout 3. WPA: .428
4. Alfonso Soriano, April 24th vs Cardinals: This is the same game as Samardzija's #8 ranking. Soriano was 3-5 in this one, but he ranks so high because his final hit was a walk-off one. WPA: .449
3. Bryan LaHair, April 24th vs Cardinals: This is the 3rd time this game has appeared in the top 10. LaHair was 2-4 with a walk and hit the game tying home run in the 9th inning. Since we know so many players have performed well in this game it's worth noting that this game also probably has some of the worst performances. WPA: .450
2. Ryan Dempster, April 5th vs Nationals: Dempster threw as well as you could hope on Opening Day as he threw 7 innings, allowed 5 hits and a run. He walked 1 and struckout 5. The Cubs took a 1-0 lead into the 8th and Dempster was relieved by Kerry Wood who blew the first of several blown saves for the Cubs this season. Carlos Marmol allowed a run in the 9th and the Cubs lost 2-1. This is the only game in the top 10 the Cubs lost. WPA: .505
<img style="" src="http://obstructedview.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/joe-mather001.jpg" alt="" title="Mather celebrates his game-winning hit against the CardinalsApril 23rd vs Cardinals: Mather went 2-3 with a walk in this game, but the Cubs trailed 2-1 entering the bottom half of the 9th. After Jason Motte struckout Soriano, he walked LaHair and Geovany Soto. Clevenger pinch hit for Rafael Dolis and advanced the two baserunners on a groundout. With 2 outs, trailing by 1 and runners on 2nd and 3rd the Cubs had just a 23% chance of winning. Then Joe Mather singled to CF scoring both runs to give the Cubs the win. WPA: .756
As you can see, no performance compares to Mather's game-winning hit against the Cardinals. I was somewhat surprised to see that among the top 10 there were 7 pitchers. Then again, the Cubs offense has sucked and they've been all about starting pitching this season so it shouldn't have shocked me.
The worst 3 in WPA all belong to Carlos Marmol. In those 3 outings Marmol threw a combined 0.1 innings, allowed 4 hits and walked 6. 6 runs crossed the plate though only 4 were earned. He's lucky to not have given up more runs than he did. His WPA was -0.698 on May 3rd against the Reds, -0.640 on April 7th against the Nationals and -0.530 on April 24th (there's that game again) against the Cardinals. The 4th worst was Samardzija's start against the Marlins on April 19th (-0.431). Chris Volstad had the 5th worst performance on the team the very next day against the Reds (-0.397).
The 5 worst performances for a Cubs batter have been Steve Clevenger (4/17, -0.034), Joe Mather (4/15, -0.034), Jeff Baker (4/10, -0.034), Reed Johnson (4/19, -0.036) and Soto (5/9, -0.037).
Dempster went six innings against the Rangers, allowing 2 runs on four hits and 2 walks and striking out three. Marmol had a scoreless 2/3 of the inning before leaving the game with some sort of hand injury. It was chalked up to cramps but he's getting an MRI anyway. The Cubs scored two runs on either side of a Blake DeWitt triple but were otherwise unable to generate much offense against Neftali Feliz and the Rangers.
Against the A's, Rodrigo Lopez continued his quietly good spring with 5 innings of one-run ball, with four strikeouts. I think he has a good chance to stick around as the long man in the pen given Sonnanstine's and Wood's troubles this spring. Tony Campana had 4 hits, including the Cubs only extra base hit of the day (a double).
Is there a Cubs game today?
No.
Opening Day Starter speculation
ESPN's Doug Padilla thinks that things are moving in a Ryan Dempster direction for the opening day gig. Sveum will most likely make an officially official announcement on Friday. The ESPN guys continue to be under the impression that Maholm has been fighting for a job on the roster, but now believe that his job is safe.
Ian Stewart missed a few games with a minor quad injury, but a more concerning bit of news is that his wrist isn't completely healed (and might never be):
“It stinks to say, but I’ve kind of got to the point where I have some nagging stuff that’s probably going to linger for a while with my wrist,” Stewart said. “That’s why I always have heat or ice on my wrist. That’s just a thing that’s going to be there.”
That wrist problem (and a hamstring injury) was a big part of his crummy 2010.
On Saturday I published this year's playing time survey and more than 50 of you took the time to fill it out. Thanks for taking the time. I'm going to go ahead and publish the results here. I didn't make any adjustments to the batters because you guys pretty much nailed it as far as position and team totals go. I did make some small adjustments to the pitchers as our total was more than a couple hundred innings shy of what a team will pitch each year. There was no reason to increase it to 1450 innings as most of the remaining innings you didn't project would be taken up by replacement level players anyway. But I did do a little adjusting by bumping each starter's projected total up a bit by a different perentage increase than I used for relievers. Overall, I added just 100 innings spread among all the players so it's not a big deal.
There's really only one player that stands out to me: Marlon Byrd. I'm guessing some of the reason he's as low as it is (438) is because you guys are expecting him to be traded. That's probably a pretty good guess. Since we've been publishing these surveys (since 2008), I don't think I had ever projected someone to get more than 600 plate appearances until this year (Castro).
This was also the first year I projected so many plate appearances to be spread among several different players. It appears we're thinking the same thing in that Jackson and Rizzo will get some playing time at some point, but not all that much. They won't get an insiginficant amount of playing time, but they're not going to be the primary player at their position until much later in the season. One thing I thought was interesting though, was that LaHair is projected to have 388 PA and Rizzo 190. It's the one position that doesn't add up, but then I realized that I have been assuming Jeff Baker is going to play at 1st base against most of the lefties. Maybe that doesn't happen early on in the season, but at some point I'm thinking Baker takes over for LaHair vs lefties.
Soto's projected PA are right in line with what I was thinking, but it's also interesting that nobody could settle on a back-up catcher. Castillo is projected to get the bulk of the back-up work, but only 20 more PA than Clevenger.
Joe Mather 126 PA? It does appear he has locked up the spot on the team, but other than Byrd that number surprised me the most.
Personally, I think the overall total for DeJesus is a bit off. He has 900 PA over the last couple years though he did bat more than 550 times each of the three previous seasons. I had hiim at somewhere between 401-450, but closer to the 401 total. DeJesus can't hit lefties (.308 career wOBA, 83 wRC+). I'll admit that I don't really know who is going to take those PA vs lefties, but at some point I think someone will. I also think he's an injury waiting to happen. That's just me. It's clear I had different expectations than the rest of you so I wouldn't bet on my expectations being correct. If I was betting, I'd bet on these.
No surprise to see Garza atop the list in projected innings. The projections were also set up in a way that we'd not end up with projections over 200 innings. If you think so and so is going to pitch 200 innings I'm certainly not going to argue with you, but I feel a 200 inning projetion is about like projecting a batter to get 725 PA. It happens. Sometimes it happens regularly, but there are just too many things that get in the way. Especially for pitchers.
For example, in Garza's best season in his career (last year), he threw only 194 IP. Pitching 200 innings just isn't something you can expect in my opinion.
There's also little surprise seeing the drop off after Garza and Dempster. Maholm is coming off an injury, Volstad isn't all that good, Wells is about to be given the Cubs Special Bullpen Test and most of you think there's little chance Samardzija remains in the rotation for that long. Speaking of Samardzija, I set up a separate survey for him when it became clear he was going to get some starts to begin the season. I took the numbers from that survey for Samardzija's total here.
I am a little surprised to see Marmol with just 65 innings, but not surprised to see Wood pitching just 51. Sean Marshall had been a reliever the last couple years I felt comfortable projecting 75 innings out of. I did project between 71-80 for Marmol, but certainly expected closer to 71.
It says something about our expectations of James Russell as a pitcher to see him getting 51 projected innings. Or it says something about the Cubs lack of pitching, particularly from the left side in the bullpen. I'm going with the latter because for the most part, that list of relievers is about as unimpressive a list as I've seen in a Cubs uniform in a long time. That said, I'd much rather pay league minimum for a guy like Mateo or Dolis than big money for someone who isn't Mariano Rivera.
Not that it matters, but in the next few days I'm going to look back at our past playing time projections and see how we did. I know for a fact we failed miserably in 2009, but that team missed expectations by about 10 to 15 wins. We can't predict an injury. We know who is more likely to get injured, but injuries happen to all the players. All we can really do is project how the manager is going to use the players and with a new manager that's more difficult than before.
I’ve been a bit confused by one of Theo’s comments since taking over as President of Baseball Operations.
“We need starting pitching. You can’t take your chances very seriously as a club if you go in to the season without, not just five guys you can point to, but six, seven and eight guys. You better know who your ninth starter’s going to be because you’re going to need him. The numbers show that you’re going to need your ninth starter at some point during the course of the year.
“So we have to build our starting pitching depth. We don’t have a ton of depth beyond the obvious guys who are in the rotation right now. That’s a priority.”
Obviously a team needs depth at starting pitching. Then again, a team needs depth in the bullpen, infield, outfield, and behind the plate. Depth is without a doubt an important part of building a contending team. There will be injuries and you have to replace them with competent ballplayers. But do you really need to know your 9th starter is going to be?
That’s probably overstating it. I really doubt Theo Epstein and/or Jed Hoyer really need to know who the 9th starter is going to be. I think, or rather I’m hopeful, that what he means is that you need depth. I think the Cubs are focusing too much on starting pitching and not enough on offense. There are a couple reasons for this. First, the offense is a lot worse than the pitching staff. Second, there are some high quality starting pitchers who will be available via free agency over the next few years while there is little that will be available offensively. So it’s going to be a lot easier to find pitching in the years to come than it will be to find offensive firepower.
Arguing about which is more important to this team is another issue entirely. It’s something that deserves further exploration, but right now I’m curious why they feel they need to be 9 deep in the rotation. Have the Red Sox ever needed a 9th starter? If so, how much have they had to rely on him?
Before I started looking into this I expected that over the years they surely had to have a 9th and probably even 10th or 11th starter. I expected that happened in not just one year, but multiple years. That being said, I also expected that those starters would make few starts and I think if we looked deeper we’d probably find they were primarily spot starts. I wanted to look into the number of starters the Sox needed each year.
The 2006 Red Sox rotation had all kinds of injury problems. 14 different pitchers started a game and only Josh Beckett and Schilling started more than 23.
It’s clear at this point that the Sox have gone 9 or more deep in their rotation several times, but I’m still not convinced it’s something you have to plan for. Seriously, if your 9th starter is taking the ball every 5th day for more than a few turns in the rotation you’re probably in big trouble.
93 times the Red Sox have needed an 8th or higher starter since 2003. In Jed Hoyer’s two years in San Diego he needed an 8th starter 6 times and didn’t have to call on a 9th starter. In 11 seasons at the helm between these two they’ve needed at least and 8th starter 99 times. I’m not sure how many innings those guys have pitched, but I’d estimate fewer than 5 innings per start for that caliber a starter. If we estimate an average of 4.5 innings pitched that’s 445 innings. Roughly 41 innings each season have been pitched by an 8th starter or higher. That’s about what you’d expect to get from your 4th best reliever.
Those 41 innings are mostly from the 8th starter’s position of course. There are significantly fewer thrown from starters worse than that. So far the Cubs have paid no attention to pitching so we have to question whether or not Theo was serious. I highly doubt he cares all that much if he knows the name of the guy who would be the 9th starter. I think what he said is nothing more than emphasizing the need for depth. I don’t believe he or Jed are crazy enough to think a 9th starter is all that valuable. There’s just no reason to believe that they’ve been faced with needing a valuable 9th starter over the course of their careers.
I’d like to see the Cubs go after a really good starting pitcher, but they’ve let two free agents sign with other teams and the only quality starters remaining are Roy Oswalt and maybe Paul Maholm. Yu Darvish is available, but will cost a lot of money. If the Cubs are only interested in adding depth I’m not convinced they don’t already have it. If they want to improve the rotation then signing Roy Oswalt or Yu Darvish would be a good idea.
Speaking of Darvish, it brings up something else that has irritated me. For more than a year now the media and fans have said that Darvish could be “just another Daisuke Matsuzaka.” Dice-K was worth 8.3 rWAR in his first two seasons in the US. He struckout nearly a batter per inning and while his walk rate (4.2 per 9) he still struckout 2 batters per walk. He led the league in hits per 9 in his second season allowing fewer than 7 hits per 9 innings. His ERA+ was 127 over those two years. Then he was hit with some injuries. That happens with pitchers. Any time you sign a pitcher you accept that he could spend a lot of time on the DL. He was never the same after the injuries, but early on he more than lived up to expectations.
Darvish is younger and was a significantly better pitcher in Japan. There really is no comparison between the two, but if the best you have is that Dice-K didn’t live up to expectations you’re wrong. He lived up to them and then got injured. Happens all the time.
This doesn’t mean I want the Cubs to shell out $100 million or more to acquire him. I’m just saying that any pitcher could just be another Dice-K. Dice-K was just another Mark Prior. Mark Prior was just another Kerry Wood and so on.
Every year the Cubs struggle the masses come out and say the Cubs should play the kids. It happens every single time. It happens when a veteran is struggling. It’s happened a lot as the 2011 season has progressed. Who exaclty are the kids on the Cubs?
Generally speaking, we refer to kids as being younger than 18. Often times it’s reserved for children even younger than that. Once a person reaches the teenage years, they are often referred to as teenagers. A teenager hates to be called a kid and we tend to show them some respect and refer to them as either a young adult or simply a teenager.
Think about how you use the word. If I hear someone say “the kids down the block were playing baseball,” I’m picturing young kids. Maybe a few teenagers, but mostly kids who have not reached that age yet. Perhaps that is just me, but the families I have known rarely refer to children over the age of 12 or 13 as kids. If they do, it’s in the general sense. “I have to get the kids to school by 8 am.”
“When you were a kid what did you want to grow up to be?” At what age are you thinking of. Are you thinking of your senior year in high school or when you were just a little kid and dreaming about being an all-star 2nd baseman one day? I remember a time at my house with a buddy of mine and we were talking about going to law school together at the University of Iowa. I was 6 or 7 years old. A couple years later all I wanted to be when I grew up was a star baseball player. We tend to think of ourselves as grown up long before we actually are.
By the time I was 15 I knew playing professional baseball was out, the only interest I had in the law was avoiding it and much of my attention was focused on the girls lucky enough to catch my eye. I sure as hell didn’t see myself as a kid. I was about ready to get my driver’s license, a job, and eventually my own car. I would officially become an adult, at least I thought, when I got those things. Anyone called me a kid and I was sure to tell them that I’m far too mature to be called a kid.
In real life you rarely hear a person who is 18 or older referred to as a kid. Usually when it’s done it’s by some adult who thinks referring to them as kids gives them more power. But in sports, these athletes are regularly referred to as kids. I’ve done it myself. Starlin Castro is just a kid. It’s true in some way, but mostly it’s just bullshit. I do have a tendency to refer to the younger athletes in baseball as kids. Once they get to 25 though, no way. Just because a player is in the minor leagues without any big league experience doesn’t mean he’s a kid.
Some people don’t really understand this. This time of the year it’s time Quade plays the kids according to them. And they’re searching for any answer as to why he wouldn’t. For example, in Levine’s chat today there’s this (h/t to RC).
Jason: I understand the Quade is trying to win as many games as possible but doesnt the fact thathe didnt play the “kids” as much as he should kind of hint that even he knows his days are number? If he felt like he was going to be back he wouldnt he want to see who can play?
Bruce Levine: That’s a possibility. I think you’re right about that. Also there is no direction in the organization for Quade. There is no top baseball guy telling him what the plan is for next year. When you’re out there on an island like Quade is, you just try to win every game.
My first thought was this: who the hell are these kids? I start going through the roster in my head. Starlin Castro is still young. He’s playing every day. DJ LeMahieu is 22 and not getting regular playing time. If you do play him, you have to sit Darwin Barney who would then be a kid not getting playing time according to these people.
I keep thinking about the roster (the 40-man roster specifically). Welington Castillo is only 24, but he’s injured. Those are the only 3 players under the age of 25. I know Campana is 25, I think Clevenger is 26 and Blake DeWitt is 25 or 26. Are we going to refer to 25 and 26 year olds as kids? Seriously? The prime of their career is maybe only a year away at the most. The fact they haven’t played much to this point suggests they probably won’t play much after that age too. Is Tyler Colvin still 25? I’m not sure. It doesn’t matter. He’s not a kid.
I know Jeff Stevens is 27 and Bryan LaHair is 28. Isn’t Geovany Soto 29? Those are all the players under the age of 30. Maybe Luis Montanez is too. He’s probably 30 since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in 2001.
So I start going through the pitchers now. I’m pretty sure Rafael Dolis is the youngest at 23. Casey Coleman is 23 or 24. Coleman is getting regular playing time. Dolis isn’t, but are we complaining about 23 year old reliever not getting much playing time? Really? I’m pretty sure Andrew Cashner, Christopher Carpenter and James Russell are all 25. There are your pitchers under the age of 25 unless I missed someone. I’m not going to waste my time and look this stuff up. It’s not worth it.
There are two guys on the roster who I can understandably be called kids: Starlin Castro and DJ LeMahieu. If you wanted to include 23 you’ve Rafael Dolis and and Casey Coleman. As I said and as every Cubs fan knows, Castro is playing every day. Coleman is in the rotation. Dolis was called up as a reliever and will naturally have to earn more playing time. Nothing wrong with that. The only possible thing Cubs fans can complain about with regards to “kids” not playing is DJ LeMahieu, but if he was playing the “young kid” Darwin Barney would not be.
If people are going to refer to 25, 26 and 28 year olds as kids, this is literally a situation a manager cannot win. There’s a reason those guys are 25, 26 and 28 and barely have any experience. It’s because they were never good enough prior to that to deserve being called up. Why would people suddenly think they would be now?
So please, let’s stop referring to the guys who are old for the minor league level they have been at as kids. They aren’t. Tony Campana is not a kid. Starlin Castro is 4 years younger than Campana. Castro will be one year away from being free agent eligible by the time he’s Campana’s current age. Are we going to refer to him as a kid at that point? Of course not.
A month ago I took a look at how the Cubs top prospects (ratings from John Sickels) were doing and the final part was a form for you so we could have our own top prospect list. The final part in this series will be those results. I know you’ve waited on pins and needles for them so you won’t have to wait much longer.
20) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C: Very effective against runners, has some power, but on-base skills are sketchy.
Castillo has only had about 60 plate appearances since we last checked in. I’m not sure if he’s been injured or what. He’s hitting .315/.376/.589 in over 200 PA at AAA this season. He kind of reminds me of Geovany Soto in terms of development.
Below is a list of Soto’s triple slash lines from age 18-24 and what level he was at:
19 Rk A- .188/.257/.188 (36 PA) 20 A- .271/.334/.423 21 A+ AA AAA .287/.337/.383 22 AA .232/.275/.386 23 AAA .255/317/.498 24 A+ AAA .301/.367/.522 (42 rehab PA at Daytona)
Soto was about a year ahead of Castillo, but neither catcher had impressive numbers until their age 24 season. Early on it looked as though both catchers would have to field their position excellently to get by at the big league level, but by age 23 for Soto, it appeared as though he had plenty of power to play every day behind the plate. Castillo has clearly shown that AAA is too easy.
I’m not saying that Castillo is going to have as successful a career as Soto has had, but it’s just something that I’ve noticed this season. Both took off at age 24. Soto has still been inconsistent at the big league level with the stick so take the comparison for what it’s worth (not much).
19) Ben Wells, RHP, Grade C: Hasn’t pitched yet, but seventh round pick from Arkansas high school has potential as a hard-throwing starter.
Wells scouting report at the time he was drafted by Baseball America said this about him:
Ben Wells pitched at 84-87 mph most of his amateur career, but by the end of this spring he was throwing 90-94 mph and pitching a five-inning perfect game in the state 7-A championship game. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound righthander has a good feel for pitching, too, as he pounds the strike zone with a three-pitch mix that also includes a hard slider and splitter. He committed to Crowder (Mo.) JC and now is drawing attention from Southeastern Conference schools. Wells has the size and stuff to go in the first five rounds of the draft, though he may not have been scouted extensively enough to go that high.
Wells doesn’t turn 19 for over a month and in 41.2 short-season A ball innings he’s allowed 44 hits, struckout 30 and walked 14. The walk rate is good, but hitters aren’t having any difficulty getting base hits against Wells and he’s having a little trouble striking them out. He’s an extreme groundball pitcher (2.44 GO/AO).
18) Jin-Young Kim, RHP, Grade C+: Will he be worth the big bonus?
Things have gotten worse for Kim since we last checked in. He’s allowed 38 hits in 24.1 short-season A ball innings. He’s allowed 4 home runs, walked 15 and struckout only 16. Only one time this season has he not allowed any runs. In his second appearance he threw 3.2 innings, allowed 5 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2. Not exactly an impressive outing by any means. His best outing other than that one was a 4 inning appearance in which he allowed 7 hits, walked 1 and struckout 2.
17) Austin Kirk, LHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate for 2011.
Kirk is having another solid season though last time we checked in he had gotten roughed up in his three previous starts and that trend has continued. Overall he’s thrown 118 innings at Peoria and allowed only 94 hits, walked just 27 and has struckout 101. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but his control is excellent. I don’t know how his skills will translate to the next level or levels, but it’s always nice to see a young pitcher in the Cubs organization who throws strikes.
16) Su-Min Jung, RHP, Grade C+: Wasn’t great at Peoria, but I think he can get better faster than people anticipate.
After walking 24 and striking out only 19 in 43.2 innings at Peoria, he was sent back to Boise. It hasn’t gone any better there either. He’s walked 16 batters, struckout only 8 and has allowed 9 runs in 10.2 innings.
15) Brooks Raley, LHP, Grade C+: Was very effective in the second half.
Raley has LOOGY written all over him. Never a strikeout pitcher, Raley has struckout just 54 in 104 innings at AA. He’s walked 37 and allowed 13 home runs. Raley doesn’t strike many out, batters don’t have any trouble getting base hits or home runs and he doesn’t have excellent control, though it’s not bad. At the age of 23, I expect we’ll see Raley moved to Iowa next year and put in the bullpen. It’s hard to imagine there’s a future there as a starter. There may not even be one as a LOOGY.
14) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: Another one (live arm, needs polish).
The Cubs acquired Wallach when they traded Ted Lilly to the Dodgers last year. Remember when the Cubs had a ton of strikeout pitchers who had a very high ceiling? Yeah, those days are gone. Wallach is yet another starter who doesn’t strike many batters out. He’s struckout 71 in 91 High A innings. He’s walked 34 so his command isn’t bad, but there’s probably not a large enough difference between K% and BB% for him to be a serious candidate for the rotation in the future. He turns 23 in December.
13) Rafael Dolis, RHP, Grade C+: Another guy in the live arm/needs polish brigade.
Converted to closer after 4 AA starts, he hasn’t been that impressive. On the season at AA he’s struckout only 6.6 batters per 9 and walked over 4 per 9. He does keep the ball on the ground and in the ballpark, but his strikeouts will only continue to decline as he moves up the system while his walks go the opposite direction. He’ll turn 24 in January and spend most or all of 2012 in Des Moines.
12) D.J LeMahieu, INF, Grade C+: I think people are a bit too down on him; he could surprise this year.
After breaking out in AA earlier this season, he was called up to Chicago out of necessity. After being sent back to AAA, things have not gone well. in 121 PA he’s hit .278/.306/.330 for the I-Cubs. LeMahieu just turned 23 so he’s another guy who is going to spend most or all of 2012 in AAA. He needs to work at getting on base without requiring a hit to do so.
11) Marquez Smith, 3B, Grade C+: Not young, but ready to help at the major league level and can catch people off-guard.
It seems rare to me that there’s a guy who has consistently hit as well as Smith has who has never gotten a shot at a big league job. It’s not just the Cubs either. He was available in last year’s Rule 5 and no team even took a flyer on him. The consensus seems to be that there’s little Smith can do to make up for whatever deficiency there is that we’re not seeing in the numbers. It’s not defense as he’s known as a good defender. It’s not like he’s a left fielder or 1st baseman. He plays 3rd base and could easily switch to 2nd if needed. Like I said last time, whatever it is that’s holding Smith back is something that we can’t see, but it’s obviously present.
Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.
I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.
The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.
Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.
Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.
Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.
Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.
While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.
I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.
Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.
Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.
While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.
Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.
Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.
Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.
Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.
Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.
If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.
It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.
Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?
