ron santo – Obstructed View

Kris Bryant is good at sports

A little over 3 years ago the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant with the 2nd pick of the 2013 First Year Player Draft*. He was considered either the top prospect or close enough to the top that few teams, if any, would have passed on him given the chance to take him that high. It was somewhat surprising to see the Houston Astros pass on him with their top pick, but they saved some money by taking Carlos Correa. They chose to spend a bit more later on and Correa has become every bit as good as the Astros hoped. Mark Appel was taken first overall that year (corrected from original).

*Can MLB please change the name of the draft to MLB Draft?

The Cubs signed Bryant to the suggested slot of $6.7 million a month later and his professional career began shortly thereafter. In Bryant’s first full professional season he hit 43 home runs in 138 games between AA and AAA. He has a very good chance of hitting 40+ home runs in his first full MLB season. He’s already got 25, which is 1 shy of his season total last year. He was called up as soon as the Cubs secured the additional year of service time so he spent what is basically the full season with the Cubs, but technically, 2016 is his first full season in the big leagues.

Last year he hit .275/.369/.488 with a .371 wOBA and 136 wRC+. It was a fantastic rookie season that earned him Rookie of the Year honors in the National League. He was worth 6.5 fWAR, which I think surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. It was quite odd to see a Cubs prospect surpass expectations. It was a welcome surprise, but even the most optimistic had to be a little worried. Kris Bryant was striking out a lot. Despite the strikeouts, 199 of them in his rookie season, he was an outstanding and productive player in the minor leagues and proved to be just that at the MLB level.

He was helped out last year a little with a BABIP near .380. It’s fallen back to a more reasonable .315 this year. All he’s done this season is hit .286/.384/.578 with a .403 wOBA and a wRC+ of 153. He’s been worth 5.0 fWAR already.

The Cubs have 74 games remaining, which isn’t quite half the season, but I began to wonder just how good Bryant’s season may be in relation to this franchise’s best seasons by WAR. It’s unlikely Bryant will end up being worth 10 WAR, but it’s also possible. Bryant’s WAR at Baseball Prospectus (bpWAR) is 5.39. BP would have a different leaderboard since they use a slightly different way to calculate their WAR, but I just wanted to show that by at least one WAR measure, Bryant may well be on his way to a 10 WAR season.

That is, if we consider what he is on pace for and not what he’s likely to do. For example, it looks like Bryant is projected to be worth about 2.5 WAR the rest of the way leaving him just shy of 8 WAR. We’ll come back to this more reasonable estimate, but first let’s just be kids and imagine.

Rogers Hornsby‘s 1929 season is unlikely to be topped any time soon. He was worth 11.1 fWAR that year so even the most optimistic person would have trouble arguing that Bryant has much of any shot of catching or passing that. Hornsby’s 1929 season is the only one in franchise history to reach 10 fWAR in a season. Sammy Sosa came close in his memorable 2001 season (9.9). In 1959 Ernie Banks was worth 9.7 and in 1967 Ron Santo was worth 9.5 fWAR. Fergie Jenkins was worth 9.6 fWAR in 1971 and 9.5 in 1970. No other Cubs player has had a season worth as much as 9 fWAR. Those 6 seasons stand well above every other season by a Cubs player.

If Bryant puts together the kind of 2nd half that we hope he does, he very well could crack that top 6. Not only that, he could become just the 2nd Cubs player to crack 10 fWAR in a season.

I don’t think that will happen. If I had to guess, I’d say he ends up at around 8-8.5. Even if he reaches his rest of season projection, he’ll still finish with one of the best seasons for the Cubs since at least 1903. Here they are below.

Rogers Hornsby: 11.1 (1929)
Sammy Sosa: 9.9 (2001)
Ernie Banks: 9.7 (1959)
Fergie Jenkins: 9.6 (1971)
Ron Santo: 9.5 (1967)
Fergie Jenkins: 9.5 (1970)
Ernie Banks: 8.7 (1958)
Ron Santo: 8.7 (1966)
Ron Santo: 8.5 (1966)
Hack Wilson: 8.5 (1930)
Fergie Jenkins: 8.2 (1969)
Ryne Sandberg: 8.0 (1984)
Ernie Banks: 7.8 (1955)
Mark Prior: 7.8 (2003)
Frank Chance: 7.7 (1906)
Ron Santo: 7.7 (1965)
Heinie Zimmerman: 7.6 (1912)
Harry Steinfeldt: 7.5 (1906)
Joe Tinker: 7.5 (1908)
Ryne Sandberg: 7.4 (1992)

Jake Arrieta (2015), Mordecai Brown (1909) and Billy Herman (1935) are next at 7.3 fWAR.

Kris Bryant is only 24 years old, though. If we limit this list to players 26 and under, it looks even better. You’ve got Ron Santo in the top two spots in 1964 and 1966 with 8.7 and 8.5 fWAR, respectively. Fergie’s 8.2 fWAR in 1969 is next and the only other player with 8 or more is Sandberg’s 1984 (8.0).

Bryant has a shot at having the best season among 26 and under Cubs since 1903.

Starlin Castro and 200 hits in season

Starlin Castro sits at 192 hits entering today’s games. There are 13 games remaining this season and there seems a good chance he ends up with 200 hits. That’s a big number and one that is often talked about. If you get 200 hits, you supposedly are a great hitter. Certainly, at Castro’s age, doing it is quite impressive, but where does it rank in the history books?

If we look only at the Cubs for starters we find that Starlin Castro’s 192 hits currently ranks 3rd among players 23 and under. Only 2 players 23 or younger have had more hits in a season than Castro has at age 21. In 1932, 22 year old Billy Herman had 206 hits. 23 year old Augie Galen had 203 hits in 1935. Then there’s Castro and after him is 23 year old Ron Santo (187), 22 year old Hugh Duffy (182) and in 6th is the young 23 year old Rafael Palmeiro with 178 hits in 1988.

Plate appearances obviously matter and we find that Herman had 728 of them while Galen had 748. Both of those led the league. Castro has 656 plate appearances to date. He’ll likely finish just over 700.

As you can hopefully tell, no player Castro’s age or younger has had more hits in a single season. The closest to Castro is 21 year old Ron Santo with 164 hits (655 PA). Phil Cavaretta in 1935, at the age of 18, had 162 hits. Castro is far away the leader at his age and it’s not even close.

If Castro plays every game te rest of the way and gets about 4.5 plate appearance per game, he’ll finish the season with 715 plate appearances. Using his current 4.4% walk rate, that’s 56 at-bats the rest of the way. This means he’d have to hit only .143 to get to 200 hits. That’s possible of course, but more likely is that he gets more than 200 hits. In order to tie Herman for the most hits in a season by a Cubs player 23 or under, he’d have to hit only .250. That’s more than reasonable if he plays every game. If he bats his career average of .305 he’d end up with 209 hits. ZiPS projects .300 the rest of the way he’d also end the season with 209 hits.

But what exactly does 200 hits mean other than it being a milestone? Castro doesn’t walk much at all so much of his value is in his batting average. Remember that he was 3rd among 23 and under players in hits? Among players who qualified for a batting title in a Cubs uniform and were 23 and under, Castro’s 110 OPS+ ranks 32nd. Not that it isn’t impressive because it is. Reducing the age to 22 and under, Castro then ranks 12th so a lot of those ahead of him were 2 years older. For 21 and under players Castro’s 2011 ranks 5th andh is 2010 ranks 12th (out of 19).

That 19 is perhaps the most impressive number of all. Only 19 players 21 and under have qualified for a batting title in a Cubs uniform. That goes all the way back to 1876 and several of the player on the list are there more than once. Cavaretta is on it 4 times. Only 14 players in a Cubs uniform have ever qualified for a batting title (21 and under).

There have been 388 seasons since 1947 in which an MLB player has qualfied for the batting title when they were 21 or under. Castro is currently tied at 16th in hits with Orlando Cepeda and is one behind Ted Williams. If he finishes the season with the 209 hits we used above, he’d finish tied for 5th Denny Lyons. In 3rd is Ty Cobb with 212 hits so if Castro gets hot and plays every game he could end the season with that many hits. Above Cobb is 1996 Alex Rodriguez with 215 hits so that’s going to take a very hot Castro the rest of the way. Lloyd Waner’s 223 hits at the age of 21 in 1927 is tops for that age group. All Castro would have to do between now and the end of the season to tie Waner is bat .554. Unless he goes cold he’ll finish in the top 10.

Castro’s 110 OPS+ pales in comparison to the 167 that Cobb posted or the 160 that A-Rod posted. However, Lloyd Waner’s OPS+ was the same as Castro’s right now. Of those 388 seasons, Castro’s OPS+ this season ranks 144th. Oddly enough, he’s tied at 110 with Gary Templeton. For those who remember, Bryan Smith used Templeton as a comparable player prior to last season (two parts) to project what Castro would do at the MLB level.

What Castro has done at such a young age is really impressive. He’s likely to reach what is considered a huge milestone at the age of 21 (there’s hit number 193 right there!). However, when you incorporate other aspects of batting, he falls back a bit, but still well above average.

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Aramis Ramirez and "performing when it counts"

The Cubs and Aramis Ramirez have a mutal option for 2011 at $16 million, but it’s unlikely he exercises that option. Ramirez is looking for more than a one-year deal and as the best free agent 3rd baseman he’ll easily get a multi-year deal on the free agent market. It’s hard to say whether or not the Cubs will offer him an extension because we really have no idea what the team plans to do. Until we do it’s only speculation.

One argument that was brought up in the comments on that Bruce Levine article was a popular one we’ve often heard about Ramirez: he only performs after the team is out of the race. This is easy enough to check. Let’s start with 2003 which was the first year Ramirez played any important games. I’ll be using rWAR below.

While with the Pirates in 2003 Ramirez batted .280/.330/.448. That was good for a 99 OPS+ and he was worth .7 WAR. After joining the Cubs he hit .259/.314/.491. That’s a 105 OPS+ and in many fewer games he was worth more WAR (1.1).

In the first half of 2004 he hit .326/.374/.550. He then hit .308/.372/.613 in the 2nd half.

First half 2005: .298/.356/.549 and then .311/.362/.608.

First half 2006: .259/.320/.481 followed by .328/.388/.556.

First half 2007: .312/.356/.556 followed by .308/.375/.542.

First half 2008: .285/.386/.515 followed by .294/.371/.522.

He spent much of 2009 injured so it’s not like that it’s his fault.

First half 2010: .207/.268/.380 followed by .276/.321/.526.

First half 2011: .298/.346/.497 followed by .311/.374/.515.

Other than 2010 I don’t know how anybody could say that Ramirez wasn’t performing well in the 1st half. It’s either a lie or it’s ignorance.

Not to mention the obvious flaw in the argument. These people assume it counts early in the season, but doesn’t count later in the season. If a batter goes 0-4 in 81 games and 4-4 in the other 81, does it really matter how it’s distributed? Would his 4-4 every game in the 2nd half have less value than 4-4 in the first half? Of course not.

To these people, it counts early in the season every single year even if you’re the 1999/2000 Cubs or the 2011 Astros. That’s ridiculous. Ramirez has been an excellent player for the Cubs and suggesting otherwise is just plain dumb.

Among players who had 3000 plate appearances as a Cub since 1947, Ramirez’s 126 OPS+ ranks 6th behind Sammy Sosa (139), Billy Williams (135), Derrek Lee (129), Leon Durham (128) and Ron Santo (127). There haven’t been that many with 3000 PA so let’s lower it to 2000.

Ramirez falls to 7th (Andy Pafko is now 3rd). So you know, Ramirez is ahead of Mark Grace, Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson and Ryne Sandberg.

Among 3rd baseman for the Cubs with 1000 PA since 1947, he ranks 3rd behind Bill Madlock and Ron Santo.

Going all the way back to 1876, Ramirez ranks 4th in OPS+ among Cubs players with at least 1000 PA.

Among all infielders he ranks 10th. Since 1876 only Santo and Stan Hack have more Batting Runs at 3rd base for the Cubs than Ramirez. Among all infielders he’s 10th, just barely behind Ryne Sandberg who had twice as many plate appearances. He’s 9th in Batting Runs per 700 plate appearances.

Including all Cubs players since 1876 with 1000 or more PA, Ramirez ranks 21st in Batting Runs. Think about that for a moment. Only 20 Cubs players have produced more WAR Batting Runs in a Cubs uniform than Ramirez has in over 135 years.

Trying to argue that Ramirez has been anything other than a very good player for the Cubs makes a person look unintelligent. There is no argument in favor of such a position. None.

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Measuring Heart: A Scale of 1 to Santo

Executive Chairperson-in-Chief via Proxy cum Laude slash Editor’s note: I offered the chance to pick a post topic in exchange for American Idol results. Emily came through for me and picked the topic “Santo!” I found it to be a perfectly timed suggestion. Thanks, Emily, for not forcing me to compromise my already discredited journablogistic integrity.

I’ve heard it said that heart cannot be measured. I call BS. I can measure heart. I can see it on display. I can admire it in ample quantities. I can even put a number on it: 10.

How much explanation do you need for this? When Cubs fans talk about heart, we can agree almost universally that Ron Santo is the gold standard. He was the epitome of toughness, courage, loyalty, resilience, and enthusiasm—all the elements comprising that ethereal quality we call heart. Cubs legend Ron Santo had it all. On the scale of heart, Ron Santo was a perfect 10.

We can agree without much debate that Ron Santo had heart, but before we go measuring this or any other player or team on the Santo scale, let’s be clear about Ron Santo’s accomplishments in the field of gutsiness.

Ron Santo was a gifted athlete. He put up monster numbers, Hall of Fame worthy numbers (as mb21 states eloquently and convincingly). Ron Santo being talented really doesn’t have much to do with heart. He was, as the saying goes, good at sports. Ron Santo excelling at a Hall-of-Fame level while battling diabetes at a time when not a whole lot was known about treating diabetes? That shows heart.

Ron Santo tirelessly working to raise money for JDRF, even after he passed the point when diabetes research could no longer help him? That’s heart. Continuing to face every day with a smile even as diabetes robbed him of his legs, bit by bit? Diabetes may have shortened his career, it may have taken his legs, and it eventually took his life, but as long as he lived, Ron Santo never allowed diabetes to diminish his heart. His love for life. His love for people. His love for the Cubs.

He gave of himself to help people who suffered like he did, whether they suffered from diabetes or just suffered from wanting the Cubs to win. But let’s not confuse those two struggles, okay?

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