The Cubs’ IFA Mistake

Why we can be confident that the Cubs didn’t intend to exceed their pool space in 2013-14 International Free Agency.

There hasn’t been any significant news on the International Free Agency front since the Cubs officially signed Catfish Tseng last week. (The Cubs don’t seem to be in on Alexander Guerrero, which is somewhat disappointing, though not unexpected). As such, I thought I would present a few thoughts on the Cubs’ July 2nd IFA strategy, since it seems that a few are still not convinced that the team made any sort of error in judgement in the market. I don’t think it’s a big deal, but I’m not one to let a good debate die, and I certainly don’t think the team deserves media accolades for their grand strategy.

My position is that the team intended to stay within their allotted pool space. I also don’t think there is anything about their actions during IFA signing that should have led us to believe that the team was in dire financial straits. And I think that all of this is fairly obvious to an outside observer. If you agree with me, or are just counting down the days until the start of the NFL season, no need to read on.

1. Jen-Ho Tseng: Fallback or Target?

Take a minute to compare Baseball America’s predictions for top 30 signings to the actual outcomes. This wasn’t guesswork. There wasn’t a whole lot of mystery about where most of these players were going to sign, since most had already agreed to deals. The one big exception was Tseng, a Boras client who acted like Boras clients do, stringing out the process to get the best offer. Now, it could be the case that the one guy out of all the available IFAs that the Cubs targeted for overspending happened to also be the player that didn’t have an agreement in place by the Fourth of July. More likely, though, is that he was the best (and nearly only) available fallback when the team realized that acquiring the necessary pool space to sign Eloy Jimenez was going to be more costly than they thought.

2. International pool money is worth more than it’s weight in dollars.

This is a bit of a subtle point, but fairly obvious if you think about it. The reason that the international cap exists is because teams would spend more money on these players if they were left to themselves. With the exception of the occasional barren year for talent here or there, this means that a dollar’s worth of pool space is going to be worth more than a real dollar. The implication here is that if the Cubs were trying to overspend their pool while saving some money in the process (as is claimed by their defenders), they would have been better off doing anything but what they did. Want to trade Ronald Torreyes because he’s redundant? Go for a prospect or cash elsewhere, not pool space. Want to maximize the return on Scott Feldman? Ask for cash or a lower-level arm instead of pool space. In fact, this is what the Cubs did with Carlos Marmol. Marmol essentially had no value (he cleared waivers for the Dodgers after they acquired him), but the Cubs managed to get $500k in salary relief by sending along $210k in pool space.* Teams targeted pool space in order to stay within their spending limits, not to exceed them. I see no reason to believe the Cubs were an exception.

*The inclusion of Guerrier complicates the issue a bit, but I think the general point stands.

3. The Cubs didn’t save much money.

For all their effort, the team really didn’t spend that much less than they would have had they not made any trades for space. The Cubs ended up spending $10.2 million on IFAs when including the penalty tax. Without any acquired space, they would have spent $11.1 million. However, if they had acquired an extra $613k in space ($404k without the Marmol trade) and passed on Tseng, they would have spent only $6.4 million. That was the cost-saving move, not getting more than halfway there and overspending anyway. And it would have come with the added bonus of no penalties in 2014. That the Cubs didn’t go that route to me is a clear signal that the additional space was too expensive (likely in terms of prospects), and they weren’t willing to pay for it.

4. Don’t take my word for it.

To your average beat reporter, covering the acquisition of 16-year old Dominicans is above and beyond the call of duty. They simply have no reason to doubt front office explanations on the matter, no matter how ad hoc. The front office leaks their intentions in early July and then confirms in mid-August? Sounds like consistency.

Fortunately for those of us who are really interested, Ben Badler exists. Badler correctly predicted where all but 3 of the top 30 prospects would sign; it’s safe to say that he has his ear to the ground. And he has consistently maintained that the Cubs miscalculated here. He first reported that teams were having troubles trading for space in late June, reiterated that the Cubs were one of these teams in early July, and has heard nothing to convince him otherwise (see here in response to OV’s own Sitrick).

I’m not bothered by what the Cubs did. It would be nice if they had perfect foresight, but for most of us, a front office that’s actually willing to spend in the international market is still a refreshing upgrade. I wasn’t crazy about the Torreyes trade, and am glad that they didn’t have to give up another prospect of that caliber in order to stay within their space. If there is anything to take from this, it’s that not every move is going to be brilliant. Theo has said that from day one, and on that front, I completely believe him.

Jen-Ho Tseng Headed Down Under; Complete Cubs IFA News

Jen-Ho Tseng officially signs with the Cubs and heads to Australia. Luis Encarnacion agrees to terms with the Phillies. A look at the Cubs’ strategy for the IFA period.

Jen Ho-Tseng Officially Signs

The Cubs made things officially official with Jen-Ho Tseng on Monday, in a move that was originally reported three weeks ago. The team is a friend of Taiwan, having now employed seven Taiwanese players in their history, a figure that is second only to the Indians.* Tseng will receive a $1.625 million bonus as well as college tuition and some sort of allowance for his family to travel to the US. For their part, the Taiwanese media has moved on in their search for the next Catfish.

*In case you are wondering, current Taiwanese players in the system are Yao-Lin Wang and Pin-Chieh Chen. Former players include Hung-Chih Kuo, Hung-Wen Chen, Chih-Hsiang Wen, and Tzu-An Wang. Taiwan Easterling is not eligible for inclusion.

International Free Agents in Action

As 16-year olds, most of the Cub signees are currently ineligible to participate in DSL/VSL play.* The exceptions are the 19-year old Tseng, who is heading to Australia to participate in MLB’s Australian Academy before making his way to the US in September, and Jefferson Mejia, who has made a single appearance to date in the Dominican Summer League.

*I’m not completely clear on the rules here. For some reason, 16-year old Julio Urias is eligible and has been pitching most of the season in A-ball. My understanding is that since he came from the Mexican League, different rules apply. As an aside, a sixteen-year old holding his own in the Midwest League? Pretty good.

Luis Encarnacion to the Phils

Dominican third baseman Luis Encarnacion, the fourth ranked prospect in BA’s top 30, signed with the Phillies last Friday. My sense in perusing other Cubs blogs is that quite a few people thought the Cubs had a chance with Encarnacion, who signed immediately after turning 16. This despite those in the know predicting he would sign with the Phils for months now. As far as I can tell, all the speculation stemmed from a Phil Rogers report that Leonardo Molina and Encarnacion were next on the Cubs’ list as part of their plans to spend wildly on IFAs. At about the same time, Gordon Wittenmeyer had a similar report, without speculating on any names. It seems like Phil simply went down BA’s top 30 list, found the ones who were unsigned, and reported them as Cubs targets. Quite frankly, he should have known better. Phil does some work for BA and presumably could have emailed someone who could fill him in on what was really happening, namely that these particular players were unsigned only because they were not yet 16; agreements were in place. The lesson here? Never bet against Badler.

Cubs Finished?

There are several still-unsigned players that have been highly regarded by one talent evaluator or another at some point. These include Yimmelvyn Alonzo, Wladimir Galindo, Wasner Peguero, and Angelo Serrano. At this point, there are no reported issues preventing these players from signing, so I expect that if they were on the Cubs’ radar, they would already be in the fold. Shortstop Obispo Aybar-Lara is another name to keep in mind, as he will be ineligible to sign until April 2014. Other names could emerge in the meantime, but I think it’s safe to say that there are no impending deals.

Overall, it’s a little disappointing to those of us who hoped that going over meant going way over, but not unexpected given the predetermined nature of these agreements. Of the bigger names that appear not to have had an agreement on July 2nd, the Cubs successfully signed Tseng, but showed no interest in Cuban defector Leandro Linares.

Cubs IFA Strategy

With the benefit of hindsight, we can bring some clarity to the Cubs’ plan. My guess is that the club worked in the weeks prior to July 2nd to acquire additional spending pool space such that they wouldn’t have to go into the penalty. I suspect that the deal they made with Houston, sending Ronald Torreyes for space, was agreed upon well before they realized that they wouldn’t be able to acquire enough. I think that by July 2nd, the opening of the current period, the Cubs had a pretty good idea that it wasn’t going to happen, and thus agreed to the trade that sent pool space along with Carlos Marmol to the Dodgers. Not wanting to close the door completely in the midst of trading season, however, they held off on signing Jimenez as well as their Plan B until later. What was that Plan B? It’s looking like it was simply to sign Jen-Ho Tseng.

For their part, the front office seems to be sticking with their story that the original plan played out precisely as expected; I am thoroughly unconvinced. This line stood out to me in particular:

Because the Cubs had the second-most pool money, which was determined by how the team finished in 2012, they wanted to take advantage of being in that position, Epstein said.

What the Cubs did was the opposite of taking advantage of their position. As the Rangers showed, pool space is irrelevant if you want to overspend on IFAs. Taking advantage of their position would have meant either trading space away (on net) and then going over anyway, or staying just within the penalty limits. If saving a million or two on taxes this year while incurring spending limits next year is their definition of “taking of advantage of that position,” then the coffers are pretty bare (and I don’t think that they are). Love your work, Brett, but I’m just going to have to go ahead and disagree with you there.

Ben Badler on the Cubs’ IFA Pickle

Baseball America’s international free agency guru Ben Badler was on the Baseball America Podcast today, where he discussed many of the issues we’ve been debating around these parts related to the Cubs’ sticky situation. It was a very informative interview, so I have transcribed extensively. To date, Badler has correctly predicted the signing team for 20 of the 22 signed free agents from his top 30, so he definitely has his ear to the ground in this process.

On Teams’ Familiarity with Eloy and Gleyber

A guy like Eloy Jimenez… was in Amauris Nina’s program when Elier Hernandez was a sixteen year old kid who was popping up on the radar [2011]… Back then was when teams were getting their first look at Eloy Jimenez, so they’ve been scouting him for years. There are kids in Venezuela like Gleyber Torres, Greifer Andrade, all these guys who have been playing for Venezuelan tournament teams… since they were fifteen, fourteen, sometimes as young as 12 years old… So they’ve known about these guys for a long time.

On the Cubs’ Bonus Pool Situation

I think what you’re seeing the Cubs do is pretty much what we expected, they signed Moreno, they signed Gleyber Torres, they signed Jefferson Mejia, and I think they’re probably, once they acquire the pool space, going to sign Eloy Jimenez, but they don’t have the pool space right now to be able to do that. I’m sure they are not thrilled that they have to make trades before the trade deadline, when other teams realize that their backs are up against the wall… because teams [now] know that what we wrote was 100% accurate. So they are kind of losing a little bit of leverage in the trade market when they are trying to trade someone like Matt Garza or somebody else on their major league team … And that’s why you’re seeing them say things like “Oh, yeah, we don’t definitely have to acquire more pool space.” Things like that.

On the Possibility Of Going Into the Penalty

… I mean, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did just end up going over it, and paying the penalty anyway if they can’t acquire that pool space. They would have severely miscalculated. …That’s great that you might be able to get Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres. Talent-wise we have them as the top two players on the board, but if they overcommitted to somebody like Erling Moreno or Jefferson Mejia, or anybody else, not realizing.. “oh shoot, we’re not going to have the pool space to sign all these guys,” and having to pay the penalty [next year] when you’re probably going to have… one of the top five bonus pools again. To not be able to sign a guy for over $250,000 next year… I mean, you could have still signed Eloy Jimenez and Gleyber Torres and then kept your pool money for the next year. So sure, maybe they could trade some of that pool space, but that pretty significantly handcuffs you.

Contrasting Implications for Overspending between the Cubs and Rangers

For [the Rangers], I can see them having more justification than if the Cubs end up doing that, because the Rangers are probably going to have one of the smallest pools next year, so you could say, alright let’s take an every-other-year strategy to the international market. Now if you’re the Cubs, and next year your bonus pool is going to be three and a half million dollars, then that sort of … cuts off a window of opportunity you’ve been afforded, so I don’t agree with a decision to pay the penalty… But, if you’re looking at probably having a bonus pool that’s at the bottom of the pack, I can understand going for a lot of the guys that you have at the top of your board, and saying “alright, we’ll swallow it for next year.”

On the Possibility of Backing Out of A Deal

They made those commitments to guys, or sort of gave their word to them, but they didn’t have those trades worked out before July 2nd… If teams can’t come up with those trades and unless they’re really committed, “we’re going to honor those deals not matter what”… It could create some very volatile situations with some very powerful dudes, so I don’t think that’s in the best interest of anyone.

On Ronald Torreyes

It’s not so much that he’s young in double-A, I don’t really care so much about that, but just the bat control that he has and I think he’s a good defender at second base. I like him a lot more than some of these guys who are in the top 30… I certainly understand the strategy that [the Astros] were trying to take this year.

On Talent Tiers

You could put any of those top ten guys in just about any order; I think those guys pretty clearly separated themselves. All ten of those guys, that was pretty strong consensus that those were definitely the top ten ten guys in the class this year. Once you get past the top twenty or so guys, the difference in talent is just so thin…

On Leonard Molina

I think that once Leonardo Molina turns 16 in August, [the Yankees] will probably sign him for about one and a half million dollars…

Cubs Acquire Moreno, Arrieta, Strop, Guerrier, Go All In on 2013 IFAs

The Cubs made a series of moves today, the net result being the acquisition of a few marginal players and some additional pool space to sign international free agents.

Trade Roundup

Trade 1: Cubs give up Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger for Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, and pool space

Feldman had been good this year, but unfortunately his track record leaves a lot to be desired. As a result, the return is less than one might have hoped. Arrieta has bounced between the minors and the O’s rotation throughout his career. Scouts have always liked the stuff, as he was twice a top 100 prospect, but that has never translated into much major league success. In 2012 he actually put up decent peripherals (22.0% K’s, 7.1% BB’s) over 114 big-league innings, which is I suspect a big reason why the Cubs are interested, but was crushed to the tune of a 6.20 ERA. In 2013 he has been horrible over 5 starts. Meh, maybe a change of scenery will help. Pedro Strop is a reliever with bad control who generates lots of ground balls.

Trade 2: Cubs trade Carlos Marmol and pool space to the Dodgers for Matt Guerrier

This is bit of a head scratcher for me. Guerrier was a successful heavy-usage set up man with the Twins, but has been very ordinary since joining the Dodgers two and a half years ago. The periphs are not there anymore, he had elbow problems in 2012, and he looks like a minor leaguer at this point. He is not making as much money as Marmol, but it still seems an odd move for a team like the Cubs, who seem to be hording IFA pool space.

Trade 3: Cubs trade Ronald Torreyes to the Astros for pool space

Most of those who follow the Cubs’ minor league system closely seem to like Torreyes. He’s very young for his level (20 at AA), and he can hit (.312 career BA). He’s tiny, however, and the Cubs are obviously hording pool space. Remind me why they didn’t just release Marmol, again?

Cubs Sign IFA Erling Moreno

With the luxury of having additional pool space, the Cubs have signed a third top IFA prospect, RHP Erling Moreno for $800,000. Moreno is #16 in BA’s ranking, and #48 for TAM.

BA:

Moreno doesn’t have a plus fastball yet, working anywhere from 87-90 mph, but he has plenty of room to add weight and velocity so he could throw in the mid-90s eventually. He gets good angle on his fastball and works down in the strike zone. He keeps hitters off his fastball with a solid changeup, a pitch that some scouts think is ahead of his breaking ball. Other scouts prefer his breaking ball and think it’s a projectable pitch.

TAM:

Strong athletic build with present strength. Wide shoulders and thick lower half. Fastball 86-87mph with projection. Low effort delivery, 3/4 with good downward plane. Does a good job locating the fastball. Shows good control.

Pool Space Roundup

From	Amount
Orioles	$388,100
Astros	$468,400
Astros	$316,300
Cubs (to LAD)	$209,700

It’s been widely circulated that the Orioles sent $388,100 to the Cubs, but the Orioles didn’t have a slot or combination of slots that add up to that number which is a combination of their third and fourth slots. I’m going to stick with it just because Jed confirmed the net amount acquired to Bruce Miles. This means the Cubs have $2.44 million remaining, taking into account the allowed 5% overage and the Torres, Mejia, and Moreno contracts. Eloy Jimenez has been rumored to sign at $2.7 million with the Cubs, so something is obviously not adding up here. Jimenez could sign for less (though Rangers rumors are still floating around), but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that the Cubs are not done making moves. (Poor Brett may have picked the wrong day to do his marathon.) I also wouldn’t expect the Cubs to go right up to their limits with the Eloy signing, as most teams eventually acquire at least a dozen or so lesser names on the cheap.

Regardless of the details here, it’s clear that the Cubs made the 2013 IFAs a huge priority. I won’t comment too much on the wisdom of this decision. Obviously the Cubs saw an opportunity given their large bonus pool and the available premium talent. This is clearly a long term move, though, as it will probably be five years before any of these players sniff the majors. I give them credit for long term thinking, but IFA’s are also famously a big gamble, given their age and distance from the majors. Impact talent is hard to find, and clearly the Cubs think it’s worth the risk.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13

Tuscon Padres 4 @ Iowa Cubs 2

Chris Rusin threw 6.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 4 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. He also hit a batter. Zack Putnam struckout the only batter he faced. Rafael Dolis gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and allowed a walk and a hit. He struck a batter out.

The I-Cubs only had 6 hits and a walk in this one. Logan Watkins had one of the two extra base hits as he went 1-4 with a double. Ian Stewart also doubled and was 2-4. Donnie Murphy was 2-3.

Tennessee Smokies 7 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5

Dallas Beeler had another strong outing. He went 6 innings, walked 2 and struckout 6. He gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. Trey McNutt struckout 2 in an inning of work.

All of the position players in the lineup had a hit. The top of the order did this:

Matt Szczur 3-5, double
Ronald Torreyes 2-5, double
Arismendy Alcantara: 3-4, 2 doubles, home run

Jair Fernandez was 2-4 and Anthony Giansanti was 2-4 with a double and a triple.

Daytona Cubs 6 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Zach Cates walked 2 and only struckout 1 in 5.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 3 runs. David Cales threw 2.1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 4. Hunter Cervenka struckout 2 in an inning of work.

The Cubs acquired Cervenka, along with Michael Bowden, in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Red Sox. He’s appeared in 9 games this season and has thrown 17.2 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits and 4 runs. He’s struckout 16, but he has walked 10. He’s had a tendency to walk a lot of batters so there doesn’t see to be much improvement there. He’ll either need to improve that or he may only have a career of a LOOGY ahead of him.

Zeke DeVoss and Dustin Geiger were 2-5. Geiger doubled. Javier Baez had another good day at the plate going 3-5 with a double. That’s two days in a row he’s had good results. More of it, please.

Jorge Soler continues to rake. He was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Wes Darvill was 3-5.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 0

Pierce Johnson had his best start of his career last night. He threw 6 innings and struckout 9 batters while walking only 1. He’s having a great year so far. Over 8 starts and 40.2 innings, he’s walked 12 and allowed only 1 home run. He’s struckout 45. Pierce turned 22 a week ago and it won’t be long before he’s in the Daytona rotation if he keeps this up.

Justin Amlung walked 2 and struckout 3 in 2 innings. Jeffry Antigua struckout 2 and and allowed a hit in 1 inning. The Cougars pitchers struckout 14 batters and walked only 3.

Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 2-4. Vogelbach had a double and a strikeout while Shoulders struckout twice and hit his 9th home run of the season. Jeimer Candelario doubled in 4 plate appearances. Oliver Zapata was 3-4 with a home run.

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Rays 2

The VSL Cubs had allowed a ton of runs so far. They’ve allowed 22, 8, 15, 15 and now 2 runs. It’s nice to see them play a game that I can be certain is actually baseball.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-29-13

Round Rock Express 10 @ Iowa Cubs 9

Nick Struck walked 4 and struckout 1. He gave up 3 home runs. In just 3 innings he gave up 4 hits and 5 runs. The only other pitcher worth mentioning was Blake Parker who threw the 9th. He walked a batter and struckout 2.

Logan Watkins was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Brett Jackson’s new swing was 1-4 with his 2nd home run of the season. He walked once and struckout twice. Of course he struckout twice.

Ian Stewart was 1-4 with a walk. The headline in the Des Moines Register should be: Ian Stewart got a hit.

Ryan Sweeney was 2-4. Brad Nelson had the big night going 4-5 with 2 doubles.

Pensacola Blue Wahoos 3 @ Tennessee Smokies 0

Eric Jokisch wasn't very good over 5 innings. He only struckout 1 and walked 1. He allowed 6 hits, one of which was a home run and allowed 3 runs. Frank Batista threw a clean 6th inning and Tony Zych pitched the 7th and final inning. He allowed a walk and struck a batter out.

Matt Szczur was 1-3 and Ronald Torreyes was also was 1-3. Those were the only hits for the Smokies in game 1 of the double-header. Jae-Hoon Ha, Rafael Lopez and Jonathon Mota were each 0-2 with a walk.

Moving on.

Pensacola Blue Wahoos 0 @ Tennessee Smokies 3

Kyle Hendricks threw a gem in this one. He threw 6 innings, allowed only a hit and a walk while striking out 8. Marcus Hatley struckout 2 in the 7th.

In 5 April starts, Hendricks pitched 25 innings, allowed 22 hits, 10 runs, 8 walks and struckout 23. His last two starts have been awesome. He's thrown a combined 13 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run. He walked only 2 and struckout a total of 17.

Only one Smokies hit mattered in this one and it was the final one of the game. Jae-Hoon Ha didn’t start the game, but pinch hit in the bottom of the 7th inning with 2 on and 2 out. He hit a walk-off home run to win the game and show me that I should not talk about his lack of power.

Palm Beach Cardinals 1 @ Daytona Cubs 2

The Cubs won this game to even up their record to 12-12. Yeiper Castillo got his first start of the season after several relief appearances this year. He threw 4 innings, walked a batter and struckout 8. Impressive first start.

Luis Liria threw 2 innings, allowed a hit and struck a batter out. Hunter Cervenka threw 2 inning, allowed a hit and a run and struckout 4.

Another game, another Zeke DeVoss walk. Another Zeke DeVoss strikeout. Two of them in this one. Tim Saunders was 0-2 with a couple of walks. Javier Baez was 1-3 and was hit by a pitch. He also had another error, his 11th of the year. He’s on pace for about 64 errors this year.

Jorge Soler and John Andreoli were each 1-4. Dustin Geiger was 1-2 with a home run and a walk.

Ben Carhart and Chad Noble were each 1-3. Both had doubles. Both struckout twice.

Kane County Cougars 6 @ Lake County Captains 7

The Cougars took a 6-2 lead into the final inning (the 7th) and gave up 5 runs to lose. Felix Pena struckout 3 and allowed 5 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings. Then Ian Dickson and Matt Iannazzo shit the bed.

If the fans hadn’t been so negative, that would not have happened.

Dan Vogelbach hit his 3rd home run of the season and Rock Shoulders hit his 5th. Shoulders was 1-3. Marco Hernandez was 1-4 and Jeimer Candelario was 0-2 with a walk.

Kane County Cougars 2 @ Lake County Captains 4

Michael Heesch struckout 7 and walked 1 in 5 innings. However, he allowed 6 hits and 4 runs. Steve Perakslis gave up a hit in an inning of work.

Dan Vogelbach hit his 4th home run of the season. He was 1-3. The only other hit for the Smokies in the late game was by catcher Oliver Zapata who was 1-1 with a walk. Jeimer Candelario was 0-2 with a walk.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-25-13

Iowa Cubs 9 @ Omaha Storm Chasers 3

Barrett Loux isn’t very good at baseball. He threw 4.2 innings, gave up 8 hits and walked 4. That’s almost 3 baserunners per inning. Esmailin Caridad walked 2 and struckout 3 over 2.1 innings. Cory Wade gave up 2 hits and a walk in .2 innings. Rafael Dolis got the save with 1.1 innings of work, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts.

I-Cubs pitchers gave up 10 hits, one of which was a home run, and walked 9 batters yet somehow gave up only 3 runs.

Logan Watkins was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts. He walked 4 times. The Cubs had 10 walks on the night.

Hide your children was 4-5 with a walk. Ryan Sweeney had the big night again going 4-5 with a triple and a home run. He walked and struckout also. Darnell McDonald was 2-5 and Edwin Maysonet was 2-4 with a walk.

Pensacola Blue Wahoos 1 @ Tennessee Smokies 2

Dallas Beeler threw 7 shutout innings and allowed 7 hits. He walked 1 and struckout 2. The right hander was selected by the Cubs in the 2010 draft in the 41st round. In 4 starts so far this season he’s thrown 31.1 innings and allowed only 17 hits. He’s struckout only 7, but also shown really good control in walking only 7. He’s been a bit BABIP lucky to date and doesn’t have the ability to strike a lot of batters out. He struckout 70 last season in 136 innings.

He made 9 starts for the Smokies in 2011 and returned there for the entire season last year. He’s now made 40 starts in AA so will probably see a promotion to Iowa at some point before too long.

Zach Rosscup allowed a walk, hit and a run in his inning while Brian Schlitter didn’t allow any hits or walks. He struck a batter out in 1 inning.

Ronald Torreyes had a great night as the leadoff hitter. He was 3-3 with a walk. He had a single, double and a triple. The rest of the Smokies combined for only 3 hits. Jae-Hoon Ha and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4. Ha struckout twice and Villanueva struckout once. Catcher Rafael Lopez was 1-3 with a double.

This week’s prospect profile will be Jae-Hoon Ha who deserves more attention than I’ve given him.

Lakeland Flying Tigers 3 @ Daytona Cubs 5

Zach Cates allowed 4 hits and no runs in 5 innings. He walked 1 and struckout 4. Yeiper Castillo struckout the side in the 6th. Austin Reed’s struggles continue. He gave up 3 hits and 3 runs in 1 inning pitched. He also walked 3. More on him in a moment. David Cales threw the final 2 innings, allow no hits or runs, walked 2 and struckout 4.

Austin Reed was a 12th round pick in 2010 and after a season as a starter, the Cubs move him to the bullpen in 2012. He wasn’t going to have any success as a starter considering he barely struck anybody out. He had a decent season in relief last year at Peoria, but so far this year he’s given up 15 hits in 7 innings. He’s allowed 9 runs, walked 6 and struckout 6.

Everybody in the Cubs lineup had a hit and they had 12 in total so let’s just stick with the guys who had more than 1. Javier Baez homered in the 1st inning and singled in his final at-bat. He struckout once and was picked off. Hopefully we’ll start to see him improve at the plate, but to be honest, I’m not concerned about that. I’m confident he’ll hit better, but the question is whether he’ll walk enough and strikeout less. Without improvements there, he’s going to struggle at some point. Maybe it’s this year. Maybe it’s next year, but he can’t continue to strikeout as much as he has to this point in his career and walk as infrequently as he has.

Chad Noble was 2-3 with a home run and a walk. Anthony Giantanti was 2-3 with a walk.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Fort Wayne TinCaps 6

Lendy Castillo sucks. There. After 6 shitty innings by Castillo, Justin Amlung struckout 2 in an inning of work. Steve Perakslis gave up a hit in 1 inning. He also struck a batter out. Did I mention that Lendy Castillo is terrible? He is.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-4 with a walk. Dan Vogelbach was 0-4 with a walk and his 2nd stolen base of the year. Go figure.

Rock Shoulders, Marco Hernandez and Willson Contreras were each 1-3. Both Shoulders and Hernandez took a walk. Bijan Radenmacher was 2-4.

Lendy Castillo still sucks. In case I have not been clear, Lendy Castillo blows ass. Ass.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-24-13

The only team scheduled to play was the Smokies so here we go.

Montgomery Bisquick Biscuits and Gravy 5 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 4

Matt Loosen threw 4.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 4 and struckout 3. Marcus Hatley allowed a hit and a walk in an inning of work and surrendered a run while striking out 2. AJ Morris officially came in the game to pitch the 7th inning, but was replaced before facing any batters. There must have been some kind of injury. He’s had shoulder problems before, but this could just be a simple issue.

Tony Zych threw 2.1 innings, allowed 2 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs. He didn’t strike anybody out. Frank Batista retired the final two batters without problem.

Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a double and a walk. Ty Wright was 2-5 with a double. Christian Villianueva and Rafael Lopez also had doubles. Villanueva was 1-4 while Lopez was 1-2 with 2 walks.

Matt Szczur had a walk and a hit in 5 plate appearances and Ronald Torreyes was 1-5. Szczur stole his 8th base of the season.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-22-13

Iowa Cubs 5 @ Memphis Redbirds 2

Brooks Raley gave up 5 hits and 2 runs in 5.1 innings. He walked 2 and struckout 3. Zach Putnam, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker finished the game without allowing any runs. He did give up 3 hits and walked 3 while striking out 5.

1B Brad Nelson was 2-4 with a home run and a strikeout. I expected to be writing his name in these recaps frequently, but he's gotten off to a slow start. Nelson is the perfect example of a quad-A talent.

Brian Bogusevic was 2-4 with a double. Ian Stewart and Logan Watkins were both 1-3 with a double. Watkins also walked twice.

Montgomery Biscuits and Gravy 3 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 9

Eric Jokisch gave up 8 hits and 3 runs, only 1 of which was earned, in 6.1 innings. He struckout 3 and walked 2. He has an impressive 1.11 ERA over his first four starts and this last one was actually his worst. He's struckout 20 and walked 5 over 24.1 innings. He's allowed 19 hits.

Brian Schlitter threw the final 2.2 innings, didn't allow a hit or a run and struck a batter out.

Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a home run. Everyone else in the lineup had one hit with the exception of Ronald Torreyes who went 0-3.

Matt Szczur and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4 with a double. Jae-Hoon Ha and Rafael Lopez were each 1-3 with a double and a walk.

Daytona Cubs 7 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 4

In Austin Kirk's 4th start of the season he threw 5 innings and allowed 4 hits and runs. He also gave up a home run. However, He struckout 8 and walked 2. It was his best strikeout to walk ratio of the season. In 18 innings he's struckout 16 and walked 10.

Zach Cates walked a batter in 1.1 innings. He didn't allow any hits or runs. Hunter Cervenka walked a batter and struckout 2 in 2.2 innings.

Javier Baez had a good day at the plate. He was 3-5 with a double and a strikeout. Over his last 10 he's started to hit, but still has not gotten on base nearly enough. His batting average is just over .300 and his OBP is .289. He's slugged over .550 so he's made up for it, but over that span he has 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. On the season he has 24 strikeouts and 2 walks and a .250ish OBP.

Zeke DeVoss was 0-3 with 2 walks. This guy can get on base. He's struggled a bit over the last 10. His batting average is barely over .200 and his slugging is under .300, but his OBP is over .425.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 and Jorge Soler was 0-5. That's the first 0-fer I can remember for Soler.

Peoria Chiefs 9 @ Kane County Cougars 6

Michael Heesch is off to a pretty good start this season. He threw 6 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2, struckout 5 and did allow a home run. In 3 starts this year, he's thrown 14 innings, allowed 11 hits and 5 earned runs. He has allowed 9 overall runs, a 5 walk and 12 strikeout rate isn't too bad. It's not great by any means, but it could be a lot worse. He's had 2 pretty good starts and a terrible start.

I've known 3 guys in my life named Brian Smith. I met one in high school, another while in Iowa City and the other one in Des Moines. There's a writer on Fangraphs named with the same name, though his name is spelled Bryan. There's also a Brian Smith with the Cougars and he sucked in his most recent outing. He allowed 3 hits, walked 2 and gave up 5 runs though only 1 was earned.

Smith is a left-handed reliever born on December 12, 1992. In 8 innings this year he's walked 7 and struckout 7.

Matt Iannazzo pitched 2.1 innings, gave up 5 hits and walked 3 and escaped while allowing only 2runs.

Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a home run and Marco Hernandez was also 2-4. His two hits were doubles. Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with a walk and Gioskar Amaya was 2-5. Jeimer Candelario had 2 walks and a hit in 5 plate appearances.

Prospect Profile: Ronald Torreyes

This is a continuation of the weekly series of of writing about a Cubs prospect profile. Early on, I will be writing about guys that Dave and I did not cover in our Prospect Ratings. Links for past ratings and past profiles at at the end. Additional links can be found at the end of the article.

Who is Ronald Torreyes?

Torreyes was signed out of Libertado de Berinas, Venezuela, by the Cincinnati Reds as a teenager. At 17 he came to the United States and made was naturally sent to the Reds rookie league. Born September 2, 1990, Torreyes is still young for his current level (Daytona), but has been loved by a number of prospect experts. He is only 5-9, 140 so these people have not thought he was capable of becoming a superstar, but they've really liked the way he's played at such a young age.

In 2010 at various rookie leagues, Torreyes played about an equal number of games at SS and 2B, but has since settled in at 2B permanently.

The Cubs acquired Torreyes prior to the start of the 2011 season for Sean Marshall. Along with Marshall, the Cubs also grabbed Travis Wood and Dave Sappelt.

Where is he?

He played the entire season in 2012 at High A, Daytona and has was promoted to AA Tennessee this season. He is the youngest qualified position player (15 AB or more) in the Southern League. Among all qualified Southern League players, only Taijuan Walker (Mariners) is younger. Unfortunately, Torreyes doesn't have nearly the potential that Walker has. Walkers threw 126 innings at AA last year and doesn't figure to be in the minor leagues too long.

Is he any good?

Torreyes began the season on the disabled list and returned just over a week ago. He has 30 PA at AA already and has played as well as possible. He's hit .350/.500/.400. It's only 30 PA, but a good start is better than a bad one. He has also taken 5 walks and has yet to strike out.

He got off to a horrible start last year, but came on strong in the second half and finished the year with a .264/.326/.385 batting line. The Florida State League is a pitcher's league so that was still good for a 102 wRC+.

In over 1200 career plate appearances, Torreyes has hit .324/.384/.463. He's also been very young for each level, which makes those numbers even more impressive.

Awhile ago I wrote about the median minor league age for each level and came up with my own appropriate age for those levels. According to that, Torreyes would be the Cubs prospect who is currently youngest for his level.

While prospect evaluators have been quite pleased with his performance so far, most see him as having a difficult time cracking the starting lineup on a regular basis. He's quite small and doesn't have much power, doesn't get on base a ton and doesn't have great speed.

The Cubs have a number of middle infield candidates that are ranked higher than he is.

OV Prospect Rating

Torreyes doesn't have tremendous potential, but when you consider his age and success at each level while being among the youngest players, he is a prospect. He gets on base enough and plays a valuable position, which mean that his floor is relatively high when you also factor in him being in AA.

Rating: 5.5 C. This gives him a ceiling of someone who could become a starter, which I think we have to consider. It also gives him a floor of someone who doesn't become the typical quad-A player. This makes sense since he hasn't even gotten to AAA yet.

This gives him 45 points in our rankings, which puts him above Nick Struck, Josh Vitters and Juan Paniagua among the now 24 players we've done. It's tied with Jeimer Candelario, Marco Hernandez, Dave Sappelt, Matt Szczur, Pierce Johnson and Paul Blackburn.

Tag: ronald torreyes