ronald torreyes – Page 2 – Obstructed View

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-21-13

It’s not easy writing about the Iowa Cubs. They are easily the least interesting team in the Cubs organization. Hell, the team in Chicago is even more interesting. We get paid the big bucks to do it so here we go.

It was Hide Your Children Day in Memphis as Brent Lillibridge made his 2nd straight start. He was 1-4. The Cubs had only 6 hits and no runs so the children didn’t miss much. Brian Bogusevic and JC Bocsan had the best days for the Cubs as each were 1-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Impressive.

Brett Jackson’s new swing was a late-inning replacement, but never batted. Logan Watkins didn’t start, but got 2 at-bats and struckout once.

Drew Carpenter allowed 2 hits in 5.2 innings, but walked 5 and struckout 6. He didn’t allow any runs. Hisanori Takahashi pitched 1.1 innings and struck a batter out. Yoanner Negrin pitched the final 1.2 innings, allowed 2 hits and the only run of the game.

Montgomery Biscuits and Gravy 9 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 6

Alberto Cabrera struckout only 1 and walked 4 over 5.1 innings. He also allowed a home run, a total of 5 hits and 4 runs. Marcus Hatley threw 1.2 innings, allowed a hit and struck a batter out. Kevin Rhoderick gave up 4 hits and 2 runs in an inning. He struckout 1. Trey McNutt threw 2 perfect innings and struckout 1. Tony Zych got the loss in the 11th inning as he gave up 3 hits, a walk and one run.

Matt Szczur was 1-4 with 2 walks and a strikeout. Rubi Silva was 2-5 with a double and Johermyn Chavez was 1-4 with a double and a walk. Anthony Giansanti was 2-2 with a double and a walk.

Ronald Torreyes was 0-1. I’ll have more on him later today.

Daytona Cubs 1 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 9

The Cubs pitchers sucked (one of them didn’t). The offense had only 2 hits. Fun game.

Ryan Searle gave up 6 hits and 5 runs over 4 innings. He surrendered 2 home runs, walked 2 and struckout 4. Austin Reed struckout 2 and walked no one in his 2 innings of work. Sounds great. Nope. He gave up 6 hits and 4 runs.

David Cales allowed just one hit in 2 innings, no runs, no walks and struckout 3.

Tim Saunders and Jorge Soler were each 1-4. Zeke DeVoss, John Androli and Micah Gibbs each walked. Nobody else did anything. Javier Baez didn’t start, but got 2 plate appearances later in the game. He was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts.

Peoria Chiefs 6 @ Kane County Cougars 7

Tyrell Jenkins struckout 7 and walked 0. That’s about as good as you can ask for when. A lot of balls did fall in for hits (7) and due to the number of batters faced he pitched only 4 innings. Corey Baker gave up 5 hits and 4 runs in 2 innings of work. Jhonny Polanco didn’t give up any hits or walks in 2 innings and struckout 2.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with a double. Marco Hernandez was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Dan Vogelbach was 0-3 with the team’s only walk.

Jeimer Candelario and Oliver Zapata were 1-4. Rock Shoulders and Chadd Krist were each 2-4. CF Trey Martin was 3-4.

JoT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-14-13

Alburquerque Isotops 1 @ Iowa Cubs 4

Chris Rusin made his 3rd start of the season for the I-Cubs on Sunday. He had his best start of the year. He had allowed 7 runs (6 earned) over his previous 11 innings of work while striking out only 6 and walking 6. On Sunday he threw 7 innings, allowed just 4 hits and a run while striking out 4 and walking no one.

Zach Putnam got the 2-inning save and didn't surrender any hits or runs. He walked 1 while striking out 3.

The Cubs had just 6 hits and Brian Bogusevic was the only Cub with more than one. He was 2-4 with a run scored. Brett Jackson got the day off and Bogusevic started in CF and led off. Darwin Barney filled in for Logan Watkins. Barney was 0-1 with a strikeout and 3 walks.

Ian Stewart began his rehab at Iowa and was 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts.

Brad Nelson, Darnell McDonald and Luis Flores were each 1-4. Chris Rusin added a hit in 3 plate appearances.

Chattanooga Lookouts 3 @ Tennessee Smokies 7

Dae-Eun Rhee is off to an interesting start. He walked 3 and struckout only 1 in his first start last week, but allowed just 2 hits and a run in 4.1 innings. On Sunday he threw 6 innings, allowed just a single hit and no runs or walks while striking out 3. He's allowed just 3 hits in 10.1 innings, but has gotten a little lucky as far as BABIP goes. Better to be lucky than unlucky.

Rhee was once a prospect who had a high ceiling, but was derailed with injuries very early in his career. He either never fully recovered or simply didn't have the stuff to make it as a lot of people though.

Zach Rosscup strukcout 3 and walked 0 in an inning of work. He did allow 2 hits and a run though. Kevin Rhoderick allocked 2 hits and 2 runs while walking 1 and striking out 1 in an inning of work. Brian Schlitter struck out a batter and allowed a hit in his inning.

Jae-Hoon Ha was 3-3 with a double and a walk. LF Rubi Silva and 2B Ronald Torreyes also had multi-hit games. Torreyes was 2-3 with a walk and Silva was 2-4 with a strikeout.

Torreyes came of the DL on Friday and has 4 hits and 3 walks in 9 plate appearances. He was the best player the Cubs got in return from the Reds for Sean Marshall after the 2011 season (they also got Travis Wood). The guy can hit, but got off to a slow start in High A last season. He did turn it around late in the season and ended up with a respectable line.

He's just 20 years old and already in AA so he's very young for the level. He might be the youngest position player in the Southern League. Among players with 17 at-bats (qualifed hitters), Arismendy Alcantara is the 2nd youngest player and Torreyes is younger than him, as well as the player above Alcantara.

I'll have a prospect profile for Torreyes next week. I think Myles may have overlooked Torreyes in his prospect rankings.

Alcantara and Matt Szczur were each 1-4. Alcantara struckout once and Szczur struckout twice. Szczur stole his 5th base of the season. Jonathon Mota was 2-4.

Daytona Cubs 3 @ Tampa Yankees 1

Zach Cates walked 3 and struckout 4 in 6 innings of work. He allowed 4 hits and a run. Austin Reed pitched the next 2 innings and allowed 3 hits, no runs, no walks and struckout 2. Peacekeeper Frank Del Valle got his 2nd save and struckout the side in the 9th.

Stephen Bruno, Dustin Geiger and Micah Gibbs were each 2-4. One of the hits for Gibbs was a double. The only other hits in the Cubs lineup belonged to Ben Carhart (1-4) and Javier Baez (1-4). Each player doubled.

Kane County Cougars @ Wisconsin Timber Rattlers double header postponed

Revisiting the Cubs offseason transactions

Since the Cubs changed management this past offseason I thought it might be fun to look back at the transactions and see how they've turned out so far. Keep in mind these are a final analysis. There's still much time left for some of these deals to look different than they currently do. I considered breaking this into parts, but decided to post it at once instead.

NOVEMBER

► November 30, 2011: the Cubs signed David DeJesus

Contract: 2-year, $10 million. The pact pays DeJesus $4.25 million each in 2012 and 2013. There is a $6.5 million option for 2014 or a $1.5 million buyout.

At the time: DeJesus was worth $15.2 million over 2 years using CAIRO, Bill James and Oliver projections (as well as an increase to them due to him switching leagues). This was prior to any projection for him as a Cub. The PECOTA projection had him worth 1.8 WARP in 2012 and 1.1 WARP in 2013 so it closely matches our early estimate. Picking up the option was probably not going to happen unless DeJesus exceeded expectations.

Early analysis: DeJesus was going to help improve the Cubs defense and baserunning, which had been horrible for some time. He was a solid bat coming off a down season so there was even a reason to think he might actually exceed expectations. Considering the cost, there was really nothing to dislike about the contract.

Performance: He's played in 96 games and about one-third of them have come in CF. He's hit .262/.352/.378. His .320 wOBA comes out to a 95 wRC+, which is the exact same as it was in 2011. UZR thinks he's been a below average fielder (-4) and his UBR only slightly better than average on the bases (0.4). His DRS is -4 in CF and 0 in RF so the two metrics are in agreement about his defense (FRAA has him at -2.9 also).

Overall he's been worth .7 fWAR, .4 rWAR and .2 WARP (Prospectus). Average them if you wish and you get .4. PECOTA projects another .5 WARP the rest of the way, which would give him .7 WARP on the season. We should probably expect by the end of the season he'll be just above 1 WAR, which makes him worth the money he was paid in 2012 and not likely worth the additional $5.75 million he's owed. Things could change by this time next year, but for now this hasn't been a very good deal for the Cubs.

DECEMBER

► December 8, 2011: Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu for Casey Weathers and Ian Stewart

Contracts: Colvin could be arbitration eligible after this season, but is currently making about league minimum. DJ LeMahieu would be under club control for 6 years. Stewart was 2nd year arbitration eligible and had already agreed to a 1-year, $2.2 million contract. Casey Weathers had no MLB service time.

At the time: The trade included 3 picks drafted in the 1st round. The two the Cubs acquired were top 10 picks and Colvin was selected 13th overall. LeMahieu was picked in the 2nd round.

Early Analysis: I don't remember having much to say about this trade. I know it wasn't a great trade and it wasn't a bad trade at the time. It was just OK. I think Baseball Prospectus said at the time that there were no winners except for the players who get to move to new teams. The Cubs probably got a bat that was a safer bet to produce, but it came at a higher price.

Performance: Ian Stewart has hit .201/.292/.335 (.265 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and is done for the season. Both DRS and UZR agree he's a slightly better than average fielder, which is a huge upgrade from Aramis Ramirez. However, Ramirez more than made up for his defensive issues and Stewart has not come close. His FWAR is 0.0, rWAR is -0.1 and WARP is -0.7 (average of -0.2). Considering the salary, the Cubs haven't come close to getting what they've paid for and he's now someone who is likely to be non-tendered.

Casey Weathers spent much of the season injured and overall he's in AA at the age of 27. He's thrown 28.2 innings and has an ERA of 5.97 and an FIP approaching 7. The guy walks everybody on the planet. You could face Weathers and you'd be 0-0 with a walk. Get this, Weathers has a really good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Hard to believe.

DJ Lemanieu has had a couple stints with the Rockies this season and it hasn't gone well in 31 games. He was league average at AAA, which doesn't say a whole lot.

Tyler Colvin has once again found his power stroke. In 258 PA he's batting .282/.318/.560 with a .367 wOBA, which is good for a 121 wRC+. He's played primarily in RF, but has also logged a lot of innings in CF, LF and 1B. The defensive metrics are in agreement that he's been below average. FRAA is the highest for him and it's -0.1. He's been worth 1.3 fWAR, 0.6 WARP and 0.8 rWAR (average 0.9). He'll surely regress some (ZiPS has him at .338 wOBA the rest of the way compared to .303 for Stewart).

This is a trade the Cubs would like to have a do over on. It's not one of those trades they'll regret forever. Tyler Colvin has proven he belongs on an MLB roster although he may not be an everyday starter. Factoring in the salary you'd obviously prefer the left handed hitting outfielder who is working at league minimum to someone like Stewart. Add in the fact that Lemahieu might actually provide some depth to an organization at some point and the secondary players involved in the trade make this an obvious win for the Rockies. Not a huge win, but a win.

This trade took place on the final day of the Winter Meetings (Rule 5 Draft). The Cubs also took Lendy Castillo from some organization who probably doesn't regret losing him one damn bit.

► December 12, 2011: Cubs sign Joe Mather

Contract: He's not yet arbitration eligible. He entered the season with just over 1 year of service time and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2014.

At the time: Mather was signed along with 9 other players over a 3 week span in December for the purpose of filling out their spring training roster. Even if he managed to make the team he wasn't expected to provide much of anything.

Early Analysis: There was none. It was a transaction that most people though was irrelevant along with the many others they signed.

Performance: Mather has hit .221/.273/.356. His wOBA is .273 and his wRC+ is 63. He's played all around the field, but primarily at CF and 3B. He's chipped in 51 innings in LF, 7 in RF and all of 2 at 1st. His defense has been average to a bit below average on the season. His fWAR and WARP are both -0.4 and his rWAR is -1.3. The average of the 3 is -0.7. He's only been on the roster because the Cubs suck and the only reason I'm even including him here is because he's stuck at the MLB level all season, but that's not an indication of how he's played. If they were paying him anything more than league minimum he'd be gone and even at league minimum he barely deserves the shot he was given.

► December 23, 2011: Cubs trade Sean Marshall to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes

Contract: Marshall was owed $3.1 million in 2012. The Reds subsequently extended him through the 2015 season, but that's irrelevant to us. Wood had just over a year of service time so was still a couple years of service time away from being arbitration eligible. Sappelt had 5 to 6 more years before free agency and Torreyes is in High A.

At the time: Before it was known who the two minor leaguers were, this was a fantastic trade for the Cubs. Wood only for Marshall would have been a good haul. Getting Sappelt and especially Torreyes in the deal only sweetens it.

Early Analysis: Marshall probably should have been the Cubs closer instead of Marmol over the last 2 to 3 seasons. The Cubs didn't do it and despite Marshall being a setup man, he was still damn valuable. He was just a reliever and the limited innings obviously limited his value, but the Cubs turned a relatively small trade surplus into 3 players.

Performance: Marshall has kept doing what he'd done in Chicago. He has an impressive 2.36 ERA and 2.32 FIP to go along with 1.1 fWAR. His rWAR is 1.3 and his WARP 1.0 (average 1.1). He's provided value above his salary this year to the Reds.

Travis Wood has had an up and down season. He was terrible in spring training and lost his grip on the rotation. He spent some time in AAA posting a solid, but unspectacular 3.76 FIP even though his ERA 4.57. At the big leagues he hasn't been very good overall. His 4.77 ERA looks good compared to his 5.62 FIP. That's good for -0.2 fWAR. His rWAR is -0.1 and his WARP is 0.2 (average 0.0). Wood is still 25 and there's more than enough reason to think he can contribute something over the next few seasons, but back of the rotation is probably his ceiling at this point. He might be better off as a LOOGY.

Dave Sappelt hit .256/.311/.345 at AAA this year. That's a .300 wOBA and a 71 wRC+. At 25 years old he probably doesn't have much of any career at the big league level ahead of him.

Torreyes is only 19 and already at High A where he has hit .271/.332/.399. That's a .338 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Considering how poorly he started, that's quite good. After May his OPS was just a little over .500. He had an OPS of .923 in June and .849 in July. He's kept hitting in August. Considering the age, he's had a damn good season so far.

The Cubs probably won't get much out of Wood and probably nothing from Sappelt, but they'll probably get enough from Wood to make the trade a good one by the time it ends. There's always the possibility Wood surprises though with his stuff I just wouldn't count on it. The real hope for making this as fantastic a trade as it was at the time is for Torreyes who could have a bright future in front of him.

JANUARY

► January 3, 2012: Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Contract: 1-year, $1.5 million

At the time: After hitting .309/.348/.367 (.354 wOBA, 116 wRC+) in 266 PA in 2011, re-signing Reed Johnson was a no-brainer. In 2011 his average WAR was 1.0 and as a 4th outfielder hitting primarily against lefties it was a safe bet he'd produce again.

Early Analysis: For $1.5 million there was no reason to be anything other than happy to get a guy of his quality to return.

Performance: In 183 PA Reed hit .302/.355/.444 prior to being traded to the Braves. His wOBA with the Cubs was .346 (112 wRC+) and he did exactly what the team expected (140 wRC+ vs lefties).

► January 5, 2012: Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano to Miami Marlins for Chris Volstad

Contract: Carlos Zambrano and all but the league minimum (about $17.5 million) were sent to the Marlins for Chris Volstad who somehow turned 3 mediocre to bad seasons in a $2.7 million first year arbitration salary.

At the time: The Cubs should have paid no more than about $10-11 million AND received Chris Volstad or someone like him. This was a bad trade when it was made. If you looked only at the CAIRO projections it matched up perfectly, but there were other projections. That's about the best that can be said: using one projection system the trade wasn't bad.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded away someone who was projected to be worth about 1.1 WAR for someone who was projected to be about replacement level or maybe a little bit better. Not only that, the Cubs send the Marlins buckets of cash and had to pay Volstad more than he ever deserved. It was the Cubs who signed this contract on January 17th. I can't even imagine what Volstad was asking for. There's almost no way he would have won in arbitration. Take the chance. Offer the guy what he's worth, which is about a million bucks or less. Fuck this $2.7 million shit.

Performance: Volstad has somehow managed enough of a decent FIP (4.27) to be worth .6 fWAR. That's rather impressive considering he's given runs away for free this year. Here, take some runs. I'm Chris Volstad and I don't need them! I've got a decent FIP. Volstad's rWAR is -1.3 and his WARP is 0.0. Average them together and you get -0.2. Not surprisingly, he's been terrible and he's done while making way more money that he should have. And oh yeah, the Cubs sent a billion bucks to Miami too.

Zambrano got off a solid start this year, but his FIP at this point (4.56) matches his FIP from a year ago (4.59). He's struckout a few more batters, but walks a lot more. Z has been worth .8 fWAR, .5 rWAR and -0.2 WARP (average 0.4).

The value difference is only about a win, but the Cubs are paying $20.2 million for below replacement production.

► January 6, 2012: Cubs trade Andrew Cashner with Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates

Contract: All the players were auto-renewal (league minimum)

At the time: How could you not love turning a relief pitcher into a 22 year old 1st basemen? I don't even care if he had half the potential that Rizzo had, you'd have to love it.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded a former top prospect in Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo. The two other players involved were just there for the fun of it. We'll talk about them, but not much. I don't think this needs much analysis. This was an obvious win for the Cubs at the time of the trade. I'm shocked that 1) Josh Byrnes would even consider such a trade and 2) that the Padres owner would even allow it. If you get a chance to trade a highly touted pitching prospect for a highly touted position player you make that trade almost every time. You better than have an explanation why you would or wouldn't make such a trade and preferring Yonder Allonso and Andrew Cashner over Rizzo ain't one of them.

Performance: Cashner has, like always, had some injury issues. He was moved back to the rotation, which helps lessen the damage of this trade if Cashner could ever stay healthy. That's unlikely. All Rizzo has done was tear up AAA .304/.346/.528 (.369, 128). He's been worth .9 fWAR, .9 rWAR and .8 WARP in less than 150 plate appearances. He's probably not this good, but for a guy who is 22 and who will only get better he's awfully damn valuable.

Zach Cates is 22 and has split the season between High A and Low A. He's been terrible. Kyung-Min Na has been equally terrible.

► January 10, 2012: Cubs sign Paul Maholm

Contract: 1 year, $4.75 million with a club option for $6.5 million or a $0.5 million buyout (minimum earned salary would be $5.25 million)

At the time: Based on the available projections Maholm's average projected WAR was a little over 1. This gave him a value of about $6.5 million for one year.

Early Analysis: Maholm was quietly putting together a solid career in Pittsburgh. This was a good signing at the time and the projections prior to the season that I listed above underestimated his talent. Berselius ran them, as he did for other pitchers, and he came up with 2.3 WAR. What's not to like about signing a guy to produce a win when you can reasonably expect more than 2?

Performance: As Berselius has been saying throughout the season, Paul Maholm did Paul Maholm things. In 120.1 innings he didn't walk many (2.5 per 9), strikeout a lot (6 per 9), had a 3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP. His fWAR was 1.5, rWAR was 1.4 and for some unknown reason BPro's WARP was 0.0. PECOTA also projected only .6 WARP so if you went strictly on that projection and their value metric it didn't work out so well.

Then again, the Cubs acquired one of the best pitching prospects entering the season for Maholm so yes, it worked out wonderfully. Although Arodys Vizcaino is recovering from Tommy John surgery, there's every reason to think he can bounce back and return to being the dominant pitcher he was. The question remains whether he can do that as a starter or as a reliever at the big league level. Either way, the Cubs ended up getting tremendous value for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. That trade alone more than justifies both contracts.

► January 13, 2012: Cubs sign Kerry Wood

Contract: 1 year, $3 million with a club option and no buyout

At the time: I wasn't as excited about this as a lot of Cubs fans were. I didn't think Kerry Wood deserved much of anything from the Cubs. I just didn't think he was good enough for the $4 million he wanted.

Early Analysis: What I just said can be put here too. It was only $3 million so it's not a big deal, but I'd have passed.

Performance: Wood retired in May after not pitching well early on. Presumably he didn't collect any additional paychecks so this ended up being for nothing. Cubs lost a little bit, but who really cares?

FEBRUARY

► February 2, 2012: Cubs sign Gerardo Concepcion

Contract: While the deal wasn't official until March 11, we learned in early February the Cubs and Concepcion had agreed a 5-year contract paying him $6 million. He was also added to the 40-man roster and as a result immediately began using his available option years.

At the time: This was a 20 year old who had struckout under 5 and walked just under 4 in his one year in Cuba (age 18). Giving this guy a contract worth millions was mind boggling and it was even more bizarre he'd be put on the 40-man roster.

Early Analysis: Everything about this signing was based on projection. The scouts loved him. The numbers weren't fantastic, but we only had a small sample. It was a ton of money and a huge commitment that, in my opinion, was destined to fail from the start.

Performance: I'm not sure what's worse about his performance. Is it the 70 hits allowed 52.1 innings in Low A? Is it the 30 walks (5.2 per 9, 12%)? The 28 strikeouts (4.8 per 9, 11.2%)? The 4 balks? Seriously, it's gotta be the balks. How can you balk 4 times in Low A? Among qualified pitchers (apparently somewhere around 70 innings) there is only 1 pitcher who has balked more than 4 times (David Goforth, 7). He's done so in more than twice the innings. If it's not all of that, what about the 6 home runs? This guy is fucking terrible. He makes Hayden Simpson look like Cy Young. What a shit contract at the time and it's looking even dumber now. One scout from another team who recently saw him said the Cubs keep trying to say it's the mechanics, but if you were at a junior college game and saw this guy pitch you'd leave. Even Hayden Simpson kept people in their seats at D2 games.

► February 21, 2012: Cubs trade Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein

Contract: Carpenter and Kurcz were auto-renewal player

At the time: The Cubs acquired one of the best GM's in the game and gave up only a relief pitcher. There are arguments that the Cubs shouldn't have even been willing to give anyone up, but losing an injury prone relief pitcher for Theo is no big deal. The Cubs hired Theo in October so he'd been on the job 4 months by this time anyway.

Early Analysis: see above

Performance: Carpenter has been injured, but Kurcz has been damn good at the age of 21 at AA. He turns 22 tomorrow and so far this year in AA he's struckout 12.9 batters per 9 though he has walked 4.8 per 9. He's struckout 32.1% of the batters faced and walked 12.1% of them. That's an excellent K-BB%. He's thrown 50.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.04 and an FIP of 3.10.

If you could sum Year One up in any way, I would probably go with this: throw crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks. While the Cubs did acquire a fantastic prospect in Anthony Rizzo, most of what they did this past offseason was rearranging the deck chairs. Along with the great trade for Rizzo, the Cubs sure acted dumb when they acquired Concepcion for about $6 million more than he was worth. Overall, you've got to be pleased with how the offseason turned out. Those expecting every transaction to turn to gold have quickly learned that isn't happening, but most of us already knew that.

The Children Are Our Future – Minor League Update Sponsored by TGI Friday’s

AZL Cubs

Shawon Dunston, Jr.'s minor league career has not gotten off to a fast start. He was 0-4 last night. After spending 71 plate appearances at Boise he was demoted to the AZL Cubs where he's been an improved hitter, but nothing that gets you excited. On the season he's hit .228/.291/.347. Albert Almora was 1-4 with a double and now has 3 hits in 17 at-bats. Jorge Soler was 2-4 and after 6 games he's hitting .292/.320/.542. Lendy Castillo threw 4 solid innings on assignment after contracting David Patton Syndrome. The Cubs will have to activate Castillo within 14 days or they have to offer him back to Philly. Considering he's been in the AZL for two weeks, I don't think the Cubs care one way or the other. Nor should they.

Boise

Gioskar Amaya was 2-5 with a triple and is now hitting .322/.388/.534. He and Marco Hernandez were similarly ranked by evaluators prior to this season, but Amaya has separated himself from Hernandez who was 2-4 last night, but after a miserable time in Peoria, he only has a .600 OPS at Boise. Hernandez was playing SS while Amaya was at 2nd last night. Dan Vogelbach has 8 hits in 4 games and 3 of them are doubles. Dude can hit.

Peoria

Wes Darvill was 2-4, but isn't hitting very well. Javier Baez continues to do what Baez does. He was 2-3 with a home run and a walk. The home run was the 11th of the season in just 50 games. He's added 8 doubles and 5 triples too. He's OPS'ing over 1.000 now. Zach Cates threw 5.1 innings, allowed 3 hits while striking out 7 and walking just 1. Sheldon McDonald and combined for 3.2 innings allowing just 2 hits, no runs, walking nobody and striking nobody out.

Daytona

Ronald Torreyes was hitless and the Daytona Cubs just got a less less interesting when Jae-Hoon Ha when unfortunately injured. Matt Szczur was promoted to AA to take his spot so there's not much to talk about with this team in my opinion. Robert Whitenack had a solid start, which reduced his ERA to 6.63 so there's that.

Tennessee

Szczur led off and played CF last night, but was 0-4 with a couple strikeouts. His promotion was deserved on its own and it's unfortunate how he got to Tennessee, but he's there. He hit better than anyone could have expected at Daytona. He transformed himself into one of the organization's more patient hitters (13.4% walk rate) and he has the tools to play CF and be a productive leadoff hitter at the big league level. Junior Lake was 2-4 with a couple doubles and is now hitting .293/.343/.438. Greg Rohan and Juan Apodaca each added a couple hits and Logan Watkins had 1. Zach Rosscup struckout 6 in 3.2 innigns of relief and didn't allow a hit. He did allow a couple walks and a couple runs.

Iowa

Not sure why it's even said anymore, but Brett Jackson struckout again last night. Just once this time. He's struckout in 10 consecutive games and has totaled 17 strikeouts over that time. July 17th is the only game in July in which he's played and didn't strikeout. Jackson's game log on First Inning goes back to June 21st and that July 17th game is the only game he didn't strikeout. Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a walk and some guy named Chris Volstad, can't be the Chris Volstad, actually pitched a very good game. He threw 8 scoreless innings, allowed 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 strikeouts.

Obstructed View’s Top 20 Cubs Prospects

1. Brett Jackson OF AAA

The Math — The 23 year old, 2009 1st round pick has a slash line .261/.339/.494. Astronomical strikeout rate (33.8%), but he still has a 114 wRC+.

The Good — Despite the K's Jackson has still been a productive player. He gets a ton of XHB's with his speed and has plenty of pop from CF. He steals bases very well. Plays a prime position and is one correction away from being a potential superstar.

The Bad — Strikes out like the love child of Adam Dunn & Mark Reynolds. His contact problem only seems to be getting worse. Walk rate is down as well.

Prediciton — Will finish the year in Iowa and maybe get a cup of coffee in Sept. Will win a starting job in 2013. Don't see a productive future for him unless he can get that K rate back to at least 25-30%. Likely hits in the .240/.320/.450 range. Maybe a couple 20/20 seasons.

2. Javier Baez SS A

The Math — 19 years old. 2011 1st Round Pick. Slash line .303/.375/.484. wRC+ 160. He already has 13 stolen bases and has been caught just once.

The Good – Everything so far. He is even more impressive when you watch him play. Great swing and works the count to his favor. High energy player.

The Bad — Doesn't walk as much as you would like. A little swing a miss to his game. Too early to see any major flaws.

Prediction — Who the hell knows with a younger player, but considering an entire industry has sprung up to provide this very guesswork let me say that the only thing keeping Baez out of the top spot is that I tend to skew towards guys who have done well at the upper levels of the minors vs potential and projection. That said, Baez seems to possess all the tools necessary to become a big leaguer. I think we see him in Daytona next year or maybe in AA if he really takes off. Scouts believe he'll be moved to 3rd base, but he has more than enough bat to play there.

3. Jorge Soler OF AZL

The Math –– 20 years old. 2012 Int'l Free Agent. Huge contract.

The Good — Scouts love him. He looks like a ballplayer.

The Bad — Nobody has seen him play yet. Its all projection.

Prediction — MB and I talked about not putting guys like Pierce Johnson or Almora on the list even though by virtue of having a heartbeat Johnson would be a top 5 arm in our system but I couldn't resist with Soler. I was a major bandwagon supporter for this guy and I like the fact that the scouts that BA & KG talk to both thought this guy was a top 10 pick. So lets just be conservative and say he will hit HR's the way Billy Hamilton steals bases.

4. Matt Szczur OF A+

The Math — 22 years old. 5th round in the 2010 draft. Large signing bonus. Improved walk rate leading to an OBP 100 points higher than his .273 average. Batting line is .273/.373/.383, which is good for a 126 wRC+. He's stolen 28 bases already this year and was voted the Midwest League's best defensive outfielder in 2011.

The Good — You have to love the fact that we are seeing an increase in walks as the level of competition increases. Especially considering this is his 2nd full year as a pro player. When you take a raw athlete like Szczur was out of college what you hope to see are adjustments as they focus and learn more about baseball and so far we have. Very good at stealing bases and plays an athletic CF.

The Bad — Not a lot of power so far. Have seen reports that talk about how he uses his athletic ability to get to balls in CF vs running the correct route.

Prediction — Both of us are pretty high on this guy right now. I could see him being the leadoff hitter going into the 2014 season.

5. Josh Vitters 3B AAA

The Math — 22 years old. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. Batting .302/.356/.509 with a wRC+ of 115. He's improved his walk rate to 6.7% while his strikeout rate remains what it's been the last 2 years. His .207 ISO is his best since it was .219 in 2009 (hadn't topped .180 since).

The Good — His production never dropped off a cliff as he advanced. He has been young at every level so far. Blossoming at the right time. Scouts have always raved about his swing.

The Bad — Never shown this kind of production before. Defense still a question mark at 3B and will never hit enough to be a force at 1B. Walk rate is still low. While he's young he's been in the minor leagues since 2007. Age is important, but so is service time. On the plus side, he's never stalled at any level.

Prediction — Call me (dylanj) a Vitters believer. I think we have found a guy who will give us league average or better production at the league minimum for the next several years. Vitters wasn't a reach at 3, scouts always loved him (said he was the best high school bat in the country) and I think he will prove them right starting in 2013 when he locks down the starting 3B job.

6. Jeimer Candelario 3B A-

The Math –– 18 years old. 2010 International Free Agent. Born in the US, but moved to Dominican Republic. Baseball America says if he'd stayed in the US he'd have been drafted in the 1st round in the draft last month. Instead, the Cubs got him for $500,000, which is a bargain compared to what a team would have spent in the draft. All he's done so far is crush professional pitching. He's batting .337/.379/.517, which is good for a wRC+ of 174.

The Good — Everything so far. He's killed it at every level. One of the youngest players for his team at every level as well.

The Bad — Only been at two levels. Has a stiff body and won't stay at 3B so will need to keep hitting to keep value in LF or 1B.

Prediction — This guy has as much potential as anybody in our system. He has what you want to find which is great stats to verify the love scouts show him. He is also doing it at a young age. He's too far away to make any MLB debut prediction but like Baez he has the tools needed to be an impact player.

7. Junior Lake SS AA

The Math — 22 years old. International Draft. He's hitting .286/.335/.404 (104 wRC+). He walked a lot early in the season and flashed a lot of power, but has since reverted to the guy who doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for much power. Still 22 and already in AA though.

The Good — At times has flashed about every tool you can. Incredible physical makeup. Strongest arm in the Cubs system IF or OF.

The Bad — Has never put together a complete season. Doesn't walk enough. Still a poor SS.

Prediction — Really hard to say. I think the Cubs give him another year as a position player to make it or flame out before moving him the mound. He has a absolute cannon for an arm.

8. Dan Vogelbach 1B AZL

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft. All he's doing is hitting .331/.391/.629 (156 wRC+). Not even 100 plate appearances in his career so far so it's difficult to know how good he really is, but the guy can hit.

The Good — Scouts loved the bat coming out of the draft. Has hit so far. Lost some of the weight he had as a HS player.

The Bad — He's still a fat, questionable defensive 1B playing in the NL. Which means he needs to hit like a motherfucker to ever matter.

Prediction — He hits well enough next year that he becomes a trade chip to an AL team and the Cubs move him.

9. Gioskar Amaya SS A-

The Math –– He posted a .377/.417/.510 line last year in the AZL (136 wRC+), but that was in large part because of .458 BABIP. He's been at Boise this season (minus one game at AAA) and has seen his BABIP dip nearly 100 points, but he's increased his walk rate slightly and has about the same strikeout rate. Despite the much lower BABIP, Amaya is hitting .306/.359/.482. That's good for a .399 wOBA and a wRC+ (151) even better than last year. Not a slugger, but has an ISO of .176.

The Good — Hits the ball very well. Has produced everywhere he has been so far.

The Bad — Not a lot of power there. Needs to improve the walk rate.

Prediction — Peoria next year.

10. Ben Wells SP A (disabled list)

The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 7th round of the 2010 draft. Only 2.2 BB/9 in his first taste of pro ball last season and a nice 3.51 FIP. This season he'd increased his strikeout rate and also decreased his BB/9 below 2. He was having a fantastic season. He only had 3 starts this year last 5 innings or longer (longest was 5.2 innings).

The Good — All his advanced stats are trending in the right direction even as he moves up in the system. Adding velocity to his pitches. Really heavy sinker could play well in Wrigley if he ever gets there.

The Bad — His elbow has exploded. Don't know if we will get the same guy back.

Prediction — We won't really know what we have here until 2014.Keep your fingers crossed.

11. Welington Castillo C AAA

The Math — 25 year old international free agent. He's been on the Cubs 40-man roster since 2010 and is more than likely out of options after this season. Batting .247/.395/.393 this year in AAA. Last year in AAA he accrued a lot of his value through power (.238 ISO), but this year it's been his ability to get on base (.153 ISO). He's been in AAA for parts of seasons going back to 2008.

The Good — Has done about all you can in the minors by being a productive guy year in and year out. Had at taste of MLB action.

The Bad — May not be better than Clevenger. Probably not an everyday catcher.

Prediciton — Should form a good tandem with Clevenger once Soto leaves. Expect to see him up full time starting next season.

12. Marco Hernandez SS A-

The Math — 19 year old international free agent. His .861 OPS in rookie ball last season (and his position) is why he's here. He's slumped this season. In 2008 the Cubs rookie team had Starlin Castro and Junior Lake split time and both made the league's top 20 prospects for Baseball America. In 2011 they had a couple other shortstops splitting time who made the same list in Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez. He has potential, but hasn't hit well after the promotion this year.

The Good — Best true SS in our system. Still young for his level.

The Bad — Has been pretty much awful this year.

Prediction — Will probably head back to Peoria once Baez gets promoted.

13. PJ Francescon SP A+

The Math – 23 year old drafted in the 40th round of the 2011 draft. He had an excellent pro debut last year striking out over 27% of the batters and walking under 5%. Strikeout rate has dropped to 15.8% in High A and the walk rate remains solid at just over 6%. He allowed only 4.7 hits per 9 in Peoria this year, but it's jumped to 9.2 in Daytona. He's a little old for Daytona, but was a late round pick who completed 4 years of college.

The Good — Dominated Peoria earlier this year. Stuff seems to be improving.

The Bad — Hasn't been nearly as good in Daytona so far. Small sample size but a 5.94 K/9 isn't going to cut it.

Prediction — Will continue to be the best healthy starter we have by default until some of 2012 guys get their feet wet. Will probably start the year in Daytona next season.

14. Alberto Cabrera RP AAA

The Math — The 23 year old international free agent was a starter last season and not a very good one. He was converted to the bullpen this year and there's really only two things you need to know: he's thrown only 45.1 innings between AA and AAA and his K-BB% is .25. He has struckout 30.9% of the batters he faced this season and walked (plus hit by pitches) 5.9%. This is AA/AAA, but to give you an idea how good this is, the best reliever in history (Mariano Rivera) had his best season in 1996 and his K-BB% was .226. I'm not comparing him to Mo. That would be silly. I'm just providing a reference point for those unfamiliar with a good K-BB%.

The Good — Has been totally filthy since moving the bullpen. Video game numbers. Keith Law described his fastball as one of the best he's seen from any prospect period. 97 mph with plus plus sink.

The Bad — It's only been about 50 IP so we don't have big track record here. Law also said he lacked a true secondary pitch.

Prediction — We will see him in the pen this year.

15. Ronald Torreyes 2B A+

The Math — 19 year old international free agent was the high upside player the Cubs received in the Sean Marshall trade. His only bad stint up to this season was 68 PA in 2010. He then tore that league up last year and had a 144 wRC+. He got off to a slow start this year, but has started hitting of late (season wRC+ of 91). He's young for Daytona too. His 4.6% walk rate in A ball last year has jumped to 7.6% this year in the more difficult league. His strikeout rate is just 6.6% and he's been a victim of BABIP this season (.240).

The Good — Has really hit at every level despite being young. Walk rate improved this year.

The Bad — It seems that his bat fell of a cliff this year but his BABIP is .240. Its always been over .350 before this season.

Prediction — I'm still a big believer in this guy's bat. Before this season his career #'s were damn similar to Starlin Castro's. He's a long way from the majors but I think he is the best 2B prospect we have. I hope he gets a crack at AA next season but wouldn't be surprised if they make him repeat the level.

16. Michael Burgess OF AA

The Math –– The 23 year old was drafted in the 1st round by the Washington Nationals in 2007. The Cubs acquired him for Tom Gorzelanny. Burgess has been an above average hitter his entire career and this year in AA is no different. His .368 wOBA is good for a 126 wRC+. He got an 87 PA taste of AA in 2010 with the Nationals and struckout in 30% of his plate appearances. This year it's down to 15.9% and he walks in over 9% his plate appearances. He has the organization's strongest arm in the outfield and while his power is down a bit this year, Jim Bowden once called it "thunderous".

The Good — Been productive at every level. Cut down the K's. Always had a decent walk rate.

The Bad — Repeating AA. Old for the level. Might be an org type player.

Prediction — Burgess is a hard guy to evaluate. On the numbers alone he seems pretty legit but the fact that nobody like BA or BP talks about this guy might mean scouts see something we don't. He needs to head on up to Iowa.

17. Arismendy Alcantara SS A+

The Math — 20 year old international free agent is hitting .306/.341/.453 in a league with a .701 OPS. His wOBA and wRC+ is .367 and 128. Alcantara joins Javier Baez, Junior Lake, Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez on our list of shortstops. The Cubs are rich in talent up the middle. Arguments could be made for Alcantara being higher on this list.

The Good — Terrific offense for the Florida State League at a premium position. Excellent basestealer.

The Bad — I've never heard anyone say his defense was even average. Scouts don't seem to be that excited by him.

Prediction — He gets bumped up to AA next season.

18. Logan Watkins 2B AA

The Math — 22 year old drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft is from the home state (KS) of the two people writing this post. With the exception of 2010, Watkins numbers have been above average everywhere he's played. He has a solid walk rate of 11.4% and a decent strikeout rate (16.8%). He doesn't hit for a lot of power (career .378 slugging), but he does have above average speed. He's stolen 72 bases in his career and already has 16 this year (5 shy of the most he's had in his career in a season). He wasn't a great base-stealer early in his career, but the last 2 seasons he's stolen 37 bases and only been caught 9 times. After hitting all of 1 home run in his first 3 seasons he's muscled up and combined to hit 9 over the last 2.

The Good — Plays multiple positions. Does a little bit of everything offensively.

The Bad — Doesn't excel at anything. May not hit enough to make the bigs.

Prediction — Watkins could turn out to be a nice utility player. We will see him in Iowa in 2013.

19. Zach Rosscup RP AA

The Math –– The 24 year old was drafted by the Rays in the 28th round of the 2009 draft. He's 24 already and hasn't even thrown 150 innings in his career, but the results have been there. Prior to this season he had FIPs of 2.38, 2.85, 1.83 and 3.50 at his various stops. He hasn't allowed a run this season, but has only thrown 9 innings.

The Good – Was pretty good as a starter in Daytona last year and got hurt. Just recently made his debut working out of the pen so far this year and has been filthy. Has pitched well every at every level he has been at.

The Bad — Old for his level. Has trouble staying healthy.

Prediction — If he can stay healthy and pitch like he has he will be the greatest pitcher of all time. This has a 0.00001% chance of happening. Let's just hope he can stay healthy for now.

20. Trey McNutt SP AA

The Math — The 23 year old was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft. He quickly took to pro ball and dominated the low minors (through High A). A big warning sign sounded in his brief 15.2 inning stint at AA as his strikeout rate plummeted from over 10 to just 7.5. Despite that, his career numbers were awesome to that point and he was ranked as the 48th prospect in baseball entering 2011. Since then he's remained at AA and has seen his strikeout rate drop 3 years in a row while his walk rate has gone the wrong direction too.

The Good — Still has good stuff as I've heard the fastball is still in the mid 90's with a big breaking ball. This should translate well to the bullpen.

The Bad — Just totally fell off this year. At best we are looking a pen arm.

Prediction — Becomes a serviceable relief pitcher. In Chicago by next year. Could pitch in the upper 90s out of the pen.

The Children Are The Future-Cubs Minor League Update Sponsored By Binny’s Beverage Depot

Iowa

Dave Sappelt hit his 2nd HR of the year and Anthony Rizzo knocked in 3 RBI's. Adrian Cardenas keeps killing the ball down there and Vitters is now sporting a sweet .635 OPS. But at least he has 5 walks vs 6 k's. Keep in mind he is still young for AAA. Casey Coleman had a good start but the bullpen shit the bed and Iowa lost 7-12.

Smokies

Jae Hoon Ha went 3-4 with a SB. Nick Struck went 5 IP and gave up 1 ER. He now has a 2.45 ERA.

Daytona

Daytona broke out the big sticks winning 13-2. Spellcheck Jr went 2-6 and is almost up to a .200 batting average. Torreyes picked up a pair of hits and a walk as well. Nelson Perez had a big day going 3-3 with a HR, 3 RBI's and pair of walks.

Peoria

Oliver Zapata continues to hit very well going 2-4. He now has 13 hits in 28 AB's for the year. The big story was Michael Jensen had another great start. Jensen only allowed 2 base runners in 7 IP and struck out 6. It was reported that Jensen was throwing in the low 90's with a good curve. Its still early but Jensen has been one of the few bright spots in the minors this year.

The Children Are The Future-Cubs Shit Sponsored by ALCO

Iowa

Josh Vitters took a walk. Move along sir.

Smokies

Kevin Rhoderick and Alberto Cabrera both had good outings in relief. These are two guys you could see up in the majors at some point this year as the Cubs continue to develop relief pitchers and 2nd basemen. Its all part of the plan people.

Daytona

Ronald Torreyes had a 3 hit game and Austin Kirk had another great outing. Kirk has dazzling standard numbers with a 1.54 ERA in 4 starts but he has only struck out 9 batters during that stretch. Anything I have seen on the guy describes his stuff as fringy at best and the FSL is very pitcher friendly so I wouldn't get too excited until he can start missing more bats.

Peoria

A conversation between DylanJ and God. DylanJ- God is it too much to ask that a single player do something worth noting to help me write these fucking things? God- Yes it is. Go fuck yourself.

So there you have it. Nobody did anything worth wasting my time on. Go to bed.

Minor League Update: 4-8-12

Iowa Cubs

Brett Jackson had another multi-hit game as he went 2-4 and he also walked again. He's walked in 3 consecutive games, which he'll do frequently. Through his first 3 games he's an impressive 5-11 with a double, triple, and has 3 walks. He's also driven in 3 and scored 3. Jackson will strikeout a lot and he's done that once again too. Anthony Rizzo was 1-4 last night. Catcher Blake Lalli was 2-4. Chris Rusin threw 5.1 innings, allowed 6 hits and 4 runs while striking out 3 and walking 2. NatE. Robertson is in mid-season Chicago Cubs bullpen form. He threw 1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 runs. He'd be the ideal late-inning reliever for the Cubs. Blaker Parker added another scoreless inning, striking out 1 and allowing a hit.

Tennessee Smokies

Logan Watkins continues to hit as he was 2-5 last night. Watkins started his professional career nicely in 2008, but had really struggled in 2010. He rebounded with a nice season for a 2nd baseman in the Florida State League a year ago. Jae Hoon Ha was 2-4 and Michael Brenly 1-4. Jonathon Mota was 1-4 at the plate and pitched a 1-2-3 inning in mop-up. Dallas Beeler threw 5, allowed 6 his and a run. He didn't walk anybody and struckout 2. If there's one thing I've noticed about the Cubs minor league starters so far they have just not been striking that many batters out. With the exception of Francescon, the numbers have been underwhelming. Daniel Berlind would also fit right in the Chicago Cubs bullpen. After a strong start from Beeler, Berlind comes into the game and can't complete an inning before allowing 8 runs. He allowed 7 hits and walked a batter in .2 innings. Casey Weathers somehow managed to pitch 1.1 innings and allow 6 baserunners, but only 1 run.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs had only 4 hits and Matt Sczczur and Ronald Torreyes didn't get any of them. Greg Rohan was 1-4, John Andreoli 2-3 with a walk and Sergio Burrell was 1-3. It was a little surprising to see Hayden Simpson sent to Daytona, but Daytona he is. He got off to a good enough start compared to what he's done before. He threw 4.1 innings, allowed 5 hits and a run. He didn't walk anybody and he only struckout 2. He threw 29 strikes and 26 balls. Casey Harman Larry Suarez finished the game and allowed only 1 hit and 2 walks (no runs).

Peoria Chiefs

Zeke DeVoss was 1-3 with a double and a walk. Eduardo Gonzalez, Brad Zapenas and Taylor Davis each had 2 hits. Gonzalez was 2-4 with a HR. Paul Hoilman was 1-4 and didn't strikeout. He did take a walk. Jose Rosario had a good start. He threw 5.1 innings, allowed just 2 hits and 2 runs. He walked 3 and struckout 2. Yao-Lin Wang threw 1.2 innings and didn't allow a hit or a walk. He struckout 2. Wang did hit 2 batters though. Austin Reed and Andrew McKirihan threw perfect 8th and 9th innings.

The 4 starters last night struckout a combined 7 batters in 20 innings. Remember when the Cubs used to have all those fireballing strikeout pitchers? Yeah, those days are over.

Minor League Update 4-6-12

I'd like to make this a daily feature here at Obstructed View, but have you looked at the minor league rosters? I'd suggest you avoid doing so if you haven't looked already. I'm not going to tell you about the game. Who cares if the Daytona Cubs won? I'm not even sure they do. Maybe there are a few fans who attend regularly who would like to see a win, but the rest of the world couldn't care less. What's important about these games is how the players perform and even on a daily basis it doesn't much matter, but writing about the Chicago Cubs isn't a whole lot more fun than their minor league teams? Have you seen the Cubs roster? Again, don't look.

Iowa Cubs

This is the most interesting team this year and will be until Brett Jackson and/or Anthony Rizzo are called up to the big leagues. At that point they become just another team in the Cubs minor leagues barely worth paying attention to.

Both of them got off to strong starts last night. Jackson had 2 hits and a walk in 5 plate appearances while Rizzo was 2-4. They each added a stolen base too. The Iowa Cubs had 10 hits, but only Dave Sappelt's double was for extra bases. Tony Campana led off last night and he also had 2 hits. Not to be outdone by Jackson and Rizzo, Campana added a stolen base of his own. Campana also had a sac fly.

Josh Vitters took a walk. No, I wouldn't joke about this shit. He really did. He was 1-3 with a walk. Vitters was the Cubs top pick (3rd overall) back in 2007, but we sometimes forget how young he is. He won't turn 23 until mid August. While his minor league numbers haven't been all that good, he's still young and has played against older talent throughout his career. The bottom line with Vitters is that if he doesn't improve his plate discipline he's got little hope of sticking on MLB roster for too long. His walk rate is horrendous, but we've talked about that enough.

Only 2 I-Cubs went without hits last night: Welington Castillo was 0-2 last night (no walks or HBP) and Adrian Cardenas was 0-3. Castillo also added an error with a catcher's interference.

Randy Wells got the start and threw 6 innings and allowed only 2 hits. He walked 3 and struckout 2. The problem last night was that both hits were home runs. That's about what you get from you number 4 starter. It's just weird the Cubs have their number 4 pitching in Iowa.

Manny Corpas threw 2 scoreless innings. He allowed a hit, didn't walk anybody and did not record a strikeout.

Tennessee Smokies

Logan Watkins and Justin Bour each went 3-5 last night. Bour hit the only home run for the Smokies. James Adduci and Jae-Hoon Ha each had 2 hits.

Nicholas Struck had a really good outing. He threw 6 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run while walking just 1 and striking out 10. Struck made 11 starts and 12 appearances for the Iowa Cubs at the end of the season last year, but the Cubs opted to send him back to Tennessee to start the year. Between 3 levels last season (Daytona, Tennessee, Iowa), Struck threw 147.1 innings, but allowed a lot of hits. He allowed 173 of them and walked 44.

I became interested in Struck back in 2010. That season he allowed only 108 hits in 128 innings. He struckout 96 so he's not a strikeout pitcher, but last year I lost interest. I'm sure part of the reason he allowed so many hits is nothing more than bad luck, but he just doesn't strike out enough batters. He's only 22 and based on the Cubs recent starting pitching acquisitions I'm not sure he's not better than some they have gone after, but he's more than likely not going to be all that good. He does have good command. He walked 44 last in year in those 147.1 innings.

Kevin Rhoderick relieved struck and allowed a hit over 2 innings while striking out 2. Rhoderick is an intriguing relief prospect. He was drafted in the 9th round in 2010, but didn't play professionally until last year. Between Daytona and Tennesse he threw 71.1 innings, walked 43 and struckout 77. Most of those innings were at the higher level and while he appears to have issues throwing strikes, he does get plenty of strikeouts. Most impressive is that he was ridiculously tough to hit last year. In those 71.1 innings he allowed just 45 of them.

That's more than a large enough sample to reach conclusions! In all seriousness though, we need to see how he performs beyond those innings. He needs to reduce his walks while keeping his strikeouts up there where they currently are. He's tough to hit so he could probably afford to throw a few more in the zone. A strong start from him and we could see him in Chicago by July.

Daytona Cubs

Matt Szczur led off and was 1-5 with an RBI. Rubi Silva had 3 hits.

Along with Dave Sappelt the Cubs also acquired Ronald Torreyes when they traded Sean Marshall to the Reds. Torreyes had 2 hits last night for Daytona. He's also an interesting prospect. He's not going to walk all that much, but he's going to walk about as often as he strikes out. He's hit for a very high average in the minor leagues, but doesn't appear to have great speed. He's definitely not below average and maybe he's just not very good at stealing bases. He did hit 12 triples in 2010, but 10 of them were in Venezuela. Last year he had 5 in about 300 plate appearances. He's stolen 37 bases in 2 years, but has been thrown out 24 times. He'll fit right in with the rest of the Cubs in Chicago. He's also just 19. He has a lot of progression ahead of him so it's difficult to know what to expect. He is only 5'9" and weighs just 140 pounds. Who knows, maybe an offseason transformation like Darwin Barney can turn him into a guy hitting 40 home runs.

Matt Loosen started for the D-Cubs, but lasted only .1 innings. Before he could get the second out he had allowed a hit and walked 4. He was just doing his best Kerry Wood impression. AJ Morris threw an inning and allowed a hit and an unearned run. Morris was one of the guys the Cubs acquired for Tom Gorzelanny, but Morris missed all of the 2011 season so this was his first outing as a Cub. Morris had primarily been a starter in the Nationals organization so I'm the bullpen test is alive and well.

Peoria Chiefs

Michael Jensen, last year's 26th round pick, started for the Chiefs and he allowed just 2 hits in 5 innings and no runs. He walked 1 and struckout 2.

Paul Holliman was drafted in the 19th round last year and began his first full season league by going 0-2 with 2 strikeouts a walk. That's something Holliman will do a lot. Walk and strikeout. He walked in 16.3% of his plate appearances last year. He struckout in 35% of them. He hit 17 home runs (5.7% of his PA). 57% of his 300 plate appearances last season resulted in a walk, strikeout or home run. Add in the 4 HBP and you have 58.3%.

As much as I love these 3 true outcome players, that's an absurd strikeout rate at a short-season league for someone who went to college. That's a ridiculous strikeout rate for someone fresh out of high school. I normally don't care too much about strikeout rate. Last year Holliman, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you can't play at the MLB level striking out that much. Especially when you consider it's only likely to get higher as he moves up the system.

Zeke DeVoss was 1-5 with 3 strikeouts. He was also drafted last year (3rd round). He also takes a lot of walks. He walked in nearly 20% of his 168 plate appearances at Boise last season. He struckout in 16.7% of them. Last year he hit .309/.449/.383. I don't know that I've ever seen an OBP almost 70 points higher than SLG. DeVoss has no power and he had a .390 BABIP last year so that's going to come down considerably.

Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been busy

The Cubs were having a rather quiet offseason until December 23rd when they traded Sean Marshall. In a span of one month they’ve traded Marshall, DJ LeMahieu, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Zambrano, Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Ha. All of them except Ha were on the team’s 40-man roster. A new front office trading current players is nothing new.

On July 5, 2002 Jim Hendry was promoted to GM. At the deadline they traded Darren Lewis. A few weeks later they traded Tom Gordon and Jeff Fassero. At the beginning of September they traded Bill Meuller. In November Hendry traded for Paul Bako. He then traded Todd Hundley. As the season neared he released former top prospect Kevin Orie. In free agency he added Shawn Estes, Ramon Martinez, Troy O’Leary, Tom Goodwin, Mark Guthrie and Mike Remlinger. The 2003 Cubs were significantly different than the 2002 team.

New executives tear bad teams apart and that’s what we’ve seen Theo and Jed doing. Let’s briefly go over the trades again.

On December 8th the Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. LeMahieu and Colvin are more than likely nothing more than back-ups, but Stewart does have some upside. I wouldn’t call this trade a win for either team except to say the Cubs added more upside than they gave away.

The second trade occurred on December 21st, but wasn’t officially official until the 23rd. Sean Marshall was traded to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. It was a great trade for the Cubs. Sean Marshall had a $6.5 million trade value and they received at least $20 million in value in return and possibly as much as $40-50 million. I still have no idea why the Reds would make this trade.

A few days ago the Cubs traded Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins for Chris Volstad. I’m not the biggest fan of this trade. I figured there was as much chance of Zambrano being a Cub next year as there was that I’d be the starting pitcher on Opening Day, but Volstad just doesn’t impress me. Aside from his 2008 rookie season he’s been pretty bad. He gives up home runs like people give out candy on Halloween. That’s not likely to improve in the hitter friendly Wrigley. He does keep the ball on the ground, but it seems every time it’s in the air it’s a home run. Let’s hope for a 100% ground ball rate. That being said, the money is a wash and the Cubs got something for someone who teams had little interest in.

Yesterday the Cubs completed a trade sending Andrew Cashner and minor leaguer Kyung-Min Ha to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and minor league Zach Cates. I like this trade a lot more today than I did yesterday. There was very little chance that Cashner was going to be used as a starter and even if he did it’s not like we can count on him to make even 20 starts. He has become a relief pitcher at this point so getting an every day player who is much younger and has more upside is nothing but a good thing.

In the meantime the Cubs have reportedly maintained interest in re-signing Kerry Wood, but before they can sign him they would have to remove someone from the 40-man roster. The most likely candidate would be one of the three left-handed relievers with little to no experience. Jeff Beliveau was added to the roster this offseason so that’s out. John Gaub and Scott Maine are the other two so I would think one of them would be taken off if they signed Wood. Or they could make another trade.

At this point there’s no reason at all to keep Matt Garza. Keep negotiating with multiple teams as I assume they are still doing and at some point I expect them to accept the best offer. I also expect the Cubs to trade an outfielder as they have 7 of them on the 40-man. They cannot trade Reed Johnson or David DeJesus as each were signed to free agent contracts this offseason. There’s little to no chance that they would trade Matt Szczur. That leaves Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, Tony Campana and Dave Sappelt. I can’t imagine they’d trade Sappelt as he’s valuable simply because he’s a cost-controlled player. They’d love to trade Soriano, but is any team going to take him? He has almost no value at all. I’d bet that Byrd gets traded yet this offseason, which will open a spot for Brett Jackson when he’s ready to be called up.

The Cubs have built themselves a very good and young offensive core to build around in the future. Brett Jackson is only 23 and is already the best outfielder in the Cubs organization. Anthony Rizzo had a disappointing rookie season, but he still has a great deal of potential. At just 22 years old he has a chance to be a middle of the order hitter for this team for many years. Starlin Castro is probably better than both of them and he’s also the youngest of the group.

If this group can develop as we hope and remain prison-free, the Cubs have a very good offensive core. We may soon see a lineup that includes the three of them at the top. Brett Jackson has more power than your typical leadoff hitter, but he gets on base an awful lot. He makes the pitcher work and has a lot of 5 and 6 pitch at-bats. He has plus speed so he can move himself into scoring position without help. Castro is more of a number 2 hitter even though he hit third a lot last year. He could develop into a legitimat middle of the order hitter. Rizzo has the potential to be a number 3 hitter. I expect we’ll see a lot of Jackson, Castro, Rizzo combinations in the order in the future. Hopefully they can all develop into middle of the order threats.

There is not this kind of young and talented core to build around when it comes to the pitching staff though. Dillon Maples may be the best pitcher in the organization and he hasn’t even thrown a professional pitch yet. Trey McNutt is the second best. Both of them may actually profile better as relievers. The good news is that there are several very good starting pitchers who will soon become free agents so the Cubs can begin to acquire top shelf pitching prospects and add veterans for the time being.

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