Cubs close to trading Sean Marshall for Travis Wood?

sean-marshall111According to Bruce Levine the Cubs and Reds are close on a deal that would send Sean Marshall to the Reds for 24 year old left-handed starter Travis Wood and two minor leaguers. We found that Marshall has a surplus trade value of about $6.5 million so this seems like a great trade for the Cubs. Wood has barely over 1 year of service time so he’s under club control for 5 additional years at the very least. The first two years would pay him league minimum at which point he’d become arbitration eligible until he reached free agency three years later.

Oliver projects Wood as a 2.5 WAR player over 170 innings in 2012. The following years Oliver has him at 2.4, 2.3, 2.3 and 2.3 WAR at which point he’d be a free agent. Wood’s surplus trade value is below.

Year WAR per win $WAR Salary
2012 2.5 5.0 12.5 0.5
2013 2.4 5.3 12.6 0.5
2014 2.3 5.5 12.7 5.1
2015 2.3 5.8 13.3 8.0
2016 2.3 6.1 14.0 11.2
Total 11.8 5.5 65.1 25.2

That’s a surplus value of $40 million so if the Cubs can acquire Wood and a couple of prospects while only giving up Sean Marshall I’d be thrilled. Let’s be a little cautious and take 3 WAR away from the total. That’s still a surplus trade value over $20 million.

It was suggested in the comments that Wood could then be used to acquire Anthony Rizzo from the Padres. The projections for Rizzo are not kind. Oliver projects .2 WAR next year and never a season higher than .8 WAR. Bill James projects a .318 wOBA and from a 1st baseman that is not at all good. CAIRO projects a .289 wOBA and .1 WAR.

I think those projections are low on Rizzo, but trading Wood for him makes no sense in my opinion. If you want to trade Matt Garza for him and the upside that Rizzo offers, go for it. I’d be reluctant to even do a Garza/Rizzo swap at this point.

Besides, the Cubs need young, cost-controlled players and Wood is just that. I don’t want the Cubs trading young players for young players. That defeats the purpose of rebuilding. Trade the veterans who aren’t going to be around for a contending team for younger players.

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Teams interested in Matt Garza and Sean Marshall

The rumors surrounding teams interested in Matt Garza have been around for a long time. Every year teams have inquired on his availability so it’s no surprise he’s once again the target of trade speculation. Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that teams were also interested in Sean Marshall. The Cubs are set to undergo a rebuilding project that will likely take a few years at the very least. As a result, every player on the roster is available for the right price.

Garza has two years left while Marshall has only one year remaining. We’ve talked about Garza’s trade value before, but haven’t looked at Marshall’s. He’s set to earn $3.1 million in the final year of the 2-year contract he signed last offseason. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end so his value is limited. Marshall ranked 5th in fWAR among relievers in 2010 and 3rd in 2011. He’s combined for 5 fWAR the last two years and has established himself as the best reliever on the Cubs. He’s one of the better relievers in baseball.

Oliver projects 2 WAR from him in 2012. That makes him worth $10 million and gives the Cubs a surplus trade value of $6.5 million. The compensation system changes dramatically next year under the new CBA. In order to qualify for draft pick compensation a team will have to offer their free agenta  qualifying offer for more than $12 million. There is no chance that the Cubs or any other team would offer Sean Marshall that kind of money. Marshall would have been a type A under the previous CBA and would have been worth an additional $5 million. That’s not so anymore. His total surplus trade value is the $6.5 million mentioned before.

A Grade B pitcher is valued at $7.3 million while a grade B hitter is worth about $5.5 million. Using last year’s Cubs top prospects by John Sickels we see that Chris Carpenter and Jay Jackson were grade B pitchers. Josh Vitters was a B-. That gives you an idea of the caliber of player the Cubs could expect in return. It’s difficult to say whether he’d be worth more or less. Teams tend to overpay for relievers, but realistically speaking you’re probably better off expecting a somewhat marginal return. Marshall is good, but he’s a reliever. He’s going to pitch 70 innings per season for a team that will pitch about 1450 innings. He’s a very small piece to the puzzle, but he is good enough that he’s going to provide significant value.

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