ryan dempster – Obstructed View

Better Know a Cub: Mike Olt

Mike Olt is a strong man. He's a patient man. He's a man with a good glove. And he is a man almost wholly written off in some parts. He's a man with undeniable warts and undeniable talents; this is a quality he shares with everyone in baseball not named Mike Trout. Most importantly to me, he's a man who will likely be tabbed Opening Day as the starting 3B for the Chicago Cubs. How scared should you be?

Not very. I think there's a great chance that Mike Olt provides actual, no-fooling value right away.

Pedigree

Mike Olt was born August 27, 1988 in New Haven, CT. I've been to New Haven (Yale is there, and I took a visit with a friend during our college search. Didn't get in.), and it's not a place you'd expect greatness to emerge outside of the actual campus of Yale (outer New Haven is representative of Outer Heaven, or lets go with Cabrini Green for those who aren't Metal Gear fans), but greatness did in fact emerge. Mike Olt attended UConn for three years, and he more-or-less mashed as soon as he attended. The Huskies went from a 27-28 team Olt's freshman year to 48-16, 2nd in the Big East, and 28th in the country his junior year. This was good enough for Olt to be drafted in the 1st round (48th overall by the Texas Rangers); Olt was the first Husky to be drafted in the first round since Charles Nagy in 1988 (two UConn alum were drafted in the first round in 2011; George Springer and Matt Barnes).

Olt was immediately sent to A- to finish the season and he was great there (.400 wOBA). In 2011, he started the season in Rookie ball (this makes sense. Rookie seasons are essentially over at the conclusion of a college season, and Olt played relatively deep into the CWS anyways. Combine that with the fact that he's a 3-yr college player, and you'd feel comfortable putting him in A- for a half-season, but maybe not comfortable enough to keep him there if you have another option), but shortly earned a promotion to A+ after 15 plate appearances and continued his dominance of the minors. He earned a trip to the AFL that season; in 127 PA, he absolutely eviscerated the league with a .485 wOBA. He hit a HR every 10 PA.

All of this success masked a minor problem; Olt's strikeout rate. Olt had always carried a nice walk rate, but his strikeout rate hovered around 21% in college (23.9, 26.0, 17.8), and had predictably grown in the majors. In 2011, his strikeout rate had climbed to 25.6%. In fact, Mike Olt and Bert Jerkson had nearly identical 2011 campaigns (14.7% and 25.6% for Olt, 15.4% and 27.0% for Jackson), and Brett Jackson's campaign was in AA-AAA. Olt would have to fix this in 2012 to take the next step to universal top-prospect.

He didn't. He repeated his 24.0% mark in AA (he had 24.0% in A+ the year before), and was absolutely lost at the plate in a call-up, owning a .206 wOBA at the major league level in his 40 PA taste. Still, failing at the majors is a common occurrence even among the best prospects. As a 23-year old only in his 2nd full professional year, setbacks are the norm.

The problems really started in the Dominican Winter League. Olt was hit by a pitch, in the head. He suffered a concussion, and his vision started getting funky. Eventually, it'd be diagnosed as a derangement of the tear ducts. The derangement eventually failed in keeping his eyes free from allergies, and with that, Olt's vision deteriorated. Olt would free-fall in 2013, going from 1.7 strikeouts per walk in 2012 to 2.4 strikeouts per walk in 2013. This apparently career-altering injury allowed the Rangers to include him as a reclamation project in a Matt Garza deal. Olt went to Des Moines and was frankly terrible.

Or was he? The line is putrid: .168/.276/.275. The wOBA (.262) would be the lowest by 60 points and any non-MLB stop in his career. However, his strikeouts went down to 24.3%. His K per BB fell from 2.5 in Texas to 1.9. His BABIP was .207; that's indicative of poor contact but also some poor luck. His ISO was much, much lower than it was in previous seasons (.107 for Des Moines). Olt was bad in Des Moines, but not as bad as his initial line looks.

In 2014, the expectation was that Olt was bound for AAA if not another organization. 3B is deeper in Chicago than any other organization, with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Christian Villanueva, and Jeimer Candelario all having at least a reasonable shot at ending up there. 2 of those players are Top 15 prospects in baseball. Couple that with the fact that the Cubs were coming off competent campaigns from the incumbent timeshare at 3B in Luis Valbuena and Donnie Baseball, and things looked grim.

It didn't play out that way. Olt claimed his vision problems were behind him, leaving only a lingering shoulder issue that's affected him since his 2009 UConn days. The spring training line looks promising in some areas (.275/.321/.608, 5 HR) and not promising in others (15 Ks, 4 BBs, 55 PAs). Murphy was sent to Texas, and Valbuena sent to 2B (his more natural position anyway). We're at the point where Olt isn't just an option at 3B, but the expected starter there.

Offense

Year	Age	Team	League	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR	BB	SO	BABIP	BB%	K%	K/BB
2008	19	UConn	Big East	251	0.318	0.386	0.577		13	25	60	0.377	10.0%	23.9%	2.4
2009	20	UConn	Big East	173	0.301	0.396	0.527		8	21	45	0.387	12.1%	26.0%	2.1
2010	21	UConn	Big East	304	0.318	0.404	0.659		23	34	54	0.326	11.2%	17.8%	1.6
2010	21	Rangers	A-	310	0.293	0.39	0.468	0.4	9	40	77	0.378	12.9%	24.8%	1.9
2011	22	Rangers	R	15	0.214	0.267	0.429	0.306	1	1	5	0.250	6.7%	33.3%	5.0
2011	22	Saguaros	R	127	0.349	0.433	0.764	0.485	13	15	36	0.400	11.8%	28.3%	2.4
2011	22	Rangers	A+	292	0.267	0.387	0.504	0.399	14	48	70	0.314	16.4%	24.0%	1.5
2012	23	Rangers	AA	420	0.288	0.398	0.579	0.426	28	61	101	0.327	14.5%	24.0%	1.7
2012	23	Rangers	MLB	40	0.152	0.25	0.182	0.206	0	5	13	0.227	12.5%	32.5%	2.6
2013	24	Rangers	AA	12	0.333	0.333	0.75	0.466	1	0	6	0.600	0.0%	50.0%
2013	24	Cubs	AAA	152	0.168	0.276	0.275	0.262	3	20	37	0.207	13.2%	24.3%	1.9
2013	24	Rangers	AAA	268	0.213	0.317	0.422	0.328	11	35	89	0.288	13.1%	33.2%	2.5

2008	19	UConn	College	251	0.318	0.386	0.577		13	25	60	0.377	10.0%	23.9%	2.4
2009	20	UConn	College	173	0.301	0.396	0.527		8	21	45	0.387	12.1%	26.0%	2.1
2010	21	UConn	College	614	0.305	0.397	0.563	0.400	32	74	131	0.352	12.1%	21.3%	1.8
2011	22	Rangers	R-A+	434	0.289	0.396	0.577	0.421	28	64	111	0.337	14.7%	25.6%	1.7
2012	23	Rangers	AA-MLB	460	0.276	0.385	0.544	0.407	28	66	114	0.318	14.3%	24.8%	1.7
2013	24	2 Orgs	AA-AAA	432	0.201	0.303	0.379	0.309	15	55	132	0.268	12.7%	30.6%	2.4
2014	25	Cubs	ST	55	0.275	0.321	0.608		5	4	15	0.290	7.3%	27.3%	3.8

Olt's carrying card has always been his power; he has a lot of it. His debut season saw him hit 23 HR in college and 9 in the pros for good measure. Until 2013, Olt's lowest SLG was the .527 he had in 2009 at UConn, a year in which he was sidelined for a sore right shoulder (I believe). Olt is also the rare specimen who improves his walk rate at each level; 10% as a freshman, 12.1% in 09 and 10, 14.7% in 2011, and finally 14.3% in 2012. Given these numbers, it's an easy walk to believe that Olt's going to rebound to something like those rates in 2014.

Olt's K rates have consistently been in the 21 to 26 percent rate, and those are livable. The 2013 number (30.6%) is definitely not. Olt will have to shore that up to have a future at the major league level; honestly, he'd have to shore up the 21 to 26% rate he had through AA because the pitching doesn't get easier.

Olt's power is going to allow him to dictate how he is pitched, and he'll be able to draw his share of walks as a result. That being said, Olt is particularly vulnerable to some pitches; some scouts believe his swing leaves him vulnerable to top-shelf velocity and that he still chases the outside junk.

If you were to take Olt's minor league line before 2012 and find a comparable major leaguer, you'd have a really hard time. He had the walks and strikeouts of Chase Headley, but the production of Josh Donaldson. That's somewhere in the vicinity of 3.5 to 7.7 WAR (helpful, I know). Unfortunately, that's a poor approximation of what he'd translate to in the majors. Olt's 24.3% mark in those seasons already puts him at 18th in 2013, just ahead of Yoenis Cespedes. A better comparable might be Mark Trumbo; Trumbo walked 8% of the time in 2013 and struck out 27% of the time. Those seem in line with what we might expect from Olt. Funnily enough, Trumbo and Olt share similar ISOs throughout the minors. Even this is a pale comparator, though; Trumbo had lower walk rates and strikeout rates than Olt in the Majors. LOWER than Olt's! Still, if Olt can recreate Trumbo's .250/.300/.470 line, maybe with a little higher OBP and a little lower SLG, that wouldn't shock me. Attached to a plus glove at 3rd, it'd also be quite valuable.

Defense

Olt is a plus defender at 3B. He's the prototypical size (6' 2", 210) for the position, and he's mechanically sound there. While slow, Olt is agile, with a good first step and the arm is a factor at 3rd for him. Earlier this spring training, he made a nice charge and throw to nail Mike Trout on a dribbler to left. Villanueva is a better defender than Olt (probably the best defender in the Cubs system), but Olt is definitely stout enough to be a plus there and not a minus.

Summary

Olt went from untouchable in a Dempster trade in 2012 to a reclamation project in a Garza trade in 2013. As much as one would like to think this was solely the work of a deranged tear duct, it wasn't. Olt has some swing-and-miss issues he'll have to address to improve. Luckily, even maintaining his pre-2013 rates would result in a useful player; improving among them could put Olt in the upper-tier of third basemen in short order. The leash will be short, given the myriad replacements at 3B hungry and waiting for their chance at the hot corner. Hopefully, Olt plays well enough to cement his place there for the foreseeable future.

2013 Cubs Prospects in Review: Kyle Hendricks

kyle-hendricks Kyle Hendricks is a 6-3, 190 pound right-handed starting pitcher. He turns 24 on December 7th and was drafted 8th round of the 2011 Draft out of Dartmouth College. Here's what Baseball America wrote at the time of the draft.

An economics major at Dartmouth, Hendricks brings a heady presence to the mound. He does more than just outsmart hitters, though, as he has legitimate stuff too. While he pitched exclusively in relief for Spokane, Hendricks mixes four pitches and has a starter's profile. He uses a sneaky 89-91 mph fastball that can get as high as 94, a sharp curveball, an occasional slider and a plus changeup. The changeup is his best pitch and one he's willing to throw in any count. "You watch him pitch and you can never tell what he's throwing," Hulett said. "His pitching tempo is always the same, whether its a fastball or a changeup. He's just got a good idea out there with great composure and great presence on the mound."

The Cubs acquired Hendricks, the team's minor league starting pitcher of the year, from the Rangers last summer for Ryan Dempster. The Cubs also acquired 3rd baseman Christian Villanueva.

Performance

Hendricks was more of a throw-in when the Cubs acquired him. He was someone who had pitched well, but didn't have a high ceiling. He still does't, but he's now pitched well enough that he's climbed the Cubs prospect rankings.

He had a dominating season in AA and pitched quite well in AAA. At Tennessee, Hendricks threw 126.1 innings over 21 starts. He struckout 101, walked only 26 batters, hit 5 batters and threw just one wild pitch. Among AA pitchers who threw 80 or more innings, Kyle Hendricks' 1.85 was the best. No other pitcher was below 2. His 2.65 FIP was third best.

In AA he struckout 19.9% of the batters and walked only 5.5%. He allowed only 3 home runs. His 14.8% K-BB% ranked 22nd in AA.

Hendricks was promoted to Iowa near the end of the season and made 6 starts. He threw 40 innings and struckout 27 batters. He walked 8. His K% dropped to 17%, but his walk rate remained at 5%.

His walk rate was even better last year. Overall this season, Hendricks made 27 starts and threw 166.1 innings. He allowed 142 hits and only 5 of them were home runs. He struckout 128 and walked 34. He struckout 19.2% of the batters faced and walked 5.1%.

Hendricks performed better than the Cubs could have expected when they acquired him.

Scouting

GW wrote about Kyle Hendricks scouting report just a few weeks before the season ended so I'm just going to quote him (thanks, GW).

The Good:

He’s dominated hitters in the minors due to above-average control and command of his four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup)

His simple mechanics allow him to consistently repeat his delivery — both from the full windup and from the stretch.

Hendricks did a nice job of changing speeds and mixing his pitches…

[He] received swinging strikeouts on both his changeup — which showed plus potential — and on his cutter…

The Bad:

He has a fringe-average fastball in the 87-91 mph range.

I was a little surprised in his lack of athleticism.

His curveball was just fringe-average on this day and did not result in many swings and misses — most were fouled off.

It would be easy to look at the ERA and FIP that he has posted in his career and get really excited about Hendricks. Go ahead and get excited, but temper your expectations. It's hard to work at the MLB level when your fastball often sits in the 80s. We don't see a lot of guys throwing 80 mph fastballs because they usually aren't very good. They tend to get hard at the MLB level.

Still, there's something to be excited about despite the lack of velocity. I can't really remember the last time the Cubs had someone with the command that Hendricks has shown. Strikeouts and walks are the two most predictive pitching stats. You like guys who strikeout a lot, but more than that, you need separation between the two. You also need to keep the walks under control. You can't strikeout 30% of the batters and walk more than 15% and expect to remain a starter, or a reliever for very long. However, Hendricks seems to have a high enough strikeout rate that we're going to see him in Chicago. He's got a chance to be as good as a mid-rotation pitcher, but could safely fall into a number 4 or 5. That has value.

Hendricks has 4 pitches: fastball, slider, curve and his best pitch is his change-up. His change-up was ranked as the best in the Carolina League in 2012 by Baseball America. His mixes up his fastballs too. He throws a 4-seamer, 2-seamer and cutter. He commands all his pitches well and based on eye from this video, he repeats his delivery with ease. I won't add anything else because of my untrained eye.

Kyle Hendricks vs. Wilmington (5/20/2012) from Jason Cole on Vimeo.

Outlook

Hendricks will probably return to AAA at the start of next season as a 24-year old. There's a chance he could earn a spot in the Cubs rotation with a strong spring training, but Theo and company have been deliberate and will likely want him to get more work. The good news is that the work for him can pile up quickly. He averaged nearly 6.1 innings per start in 2013. he did average even more in AAA (one out shy of 7 innings per start).

He pitched either 7.0 innings or 8.0 innings in 12 of his 27 starts. Interestingly, there were only two starts (back to back starts in May) in which Hendricks was pulled mid-inning. Each start he pitched 6.2 innings. Compared to C.J. Edwards, Hendricks is a throwback to when they threw 300 innings per season.

At some point in 2013 we will see Hendricks make his Major League debut. I'm going to guess it happens around mid-May.

If he can maintain his K-BB% he can be good even without the high strikeout rate. The guy will throw strikes and he mixes his pitches well enough to be an MLB starter.

Considering he was viewed as a throw-in, the Cubs have to be super happy with what they've gotten in return.

2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews

Cubs Prospects on the Rise, June edition

Myles already posted the Cubs prospects who have fallen so now it's time to look at the ones who have risen. We'll also have an updated Cubs top prospects list for you.

3. Pierce Johnson – The 22 year old supplemental first round pick from 2012 is probably a little too old for his level, but he's been dominating. He only logged 11 innings after the draft last year, but started the year in Kane County. He's made the most of it and will be due for a promotion soon.

In 62.2 innings, Johnson has 25.7% of the batters he's faced and walked only 7.1%. He's also kept the ball in the ballpark as he's only given up 4 home runs.

He has given up more hits than you'd like. To be precise, he's given up 63 of them and that's a higher number than you'd like for someone advanced for his level. Despite the impressive control, he's allowed more than 1.3 baserunners per inning due to the number of hits allowed.

There's plenty of reason to be optimistic regarding Johnson, but also reason to be concerned. The large number of hits allowed could be the result of a leaky infield, but I'd have to check out the other pitchers before we could even go there.

While Dave and I did not think that Johnson had the highest ceiling among the pitching prospects in the Cubs organization, we did rate him higher than the others. This was because we thought he had a higher floor and because he was older, would move much more quickly. I can't speak for Dave, but Johnson has moved up simply because some others have dropped.

Dillon Maples has performed poorly when he's healthy, which isn't often. Arodys Vizcaino is injured. The others on our list have yet to make an appearance. So these guys have either stayed where they were or dropped while Johnson's defense independent statistics have been quite good. We'll need to see how he performs at the next level, which we should get a glimpse of this year.

2. Kyle Hendricks – The 23 year old right hander was drafted twice. In 2008 he was taken by the Angels in the 39th round. He went to Dartmouth instead and it paid off. Three years later he was drafted by the Rangers in the 8th round.

He was a reliever his first year with the Rangers, but was so good they moved him to the bullpen and he's continued to be impressive. The Cubs acquired Hendricks, along with Christian Villanueva, for Ryan Dempster last July. He had a rocky start with the Cubs, but has been excellent so far this year.

In 71.1 innings, he's struckout 21.3% of the batters and walked only 5.6%. He has a 2.57 FIP and a more impressive 2.14 ERA. Hendricks throws a ton of strikes and hasn't been hit particularly hard. He's allowed 61 hits this year and only 2 home runs.

He hasn't been known as a top prospect or anything, but he's continued to put up impressive numbers since turning pro. He's not long for AA and should see significant AAA action this season.

1. Arismendy Alcantara – One of the youngest minor leaguers in the system relative to the league's median age, Alcantara has not disappointed. He hasn't just been as good as previously. He's been quite a bit better.

He's currently batting .289/.364/.478 with a .381 wOBA. His wRC+ is 141. While his BABIP is .341, that's right in line with his career average. His walk rate sat below 5% in his first two seasons and climbed to 5.3% a year ago. This year it's nearly double that at 9.8%. He has the best ISO in his career at .189 in large part due to the 9 home runs he's hit in 265 plate appearances.

That's a lot compared to before. Alcantara had hit 9 over the previous two seasons totaling 749 plate appearances. He's hit as many or more doubles than he has in any season in less the playing time too. His speed has not suffered with the addition of the power. He's stolen 16 bases compared to 25 last year. He's on pace to top that figure. He's become an excellent base-stealer.

He was successful 25 of 29 times last year and 16 of 18 so far this year. Since 2012 he's been successful 87.2% of the time.

He's done all this while playing shortstop. I don't see Alcantara pushing Starlin Castro to another position, but if Alcantara continues to play well, we could see him moved to 2nd base and Darwin Barney moved to the bench.

If Alcantara keeps hitting like he has been, he'll probably be due for a promotion around July.

Honorable mention: Christian Villanueva and Javier Baez. Baez hasn't moved up since he was the top prospect and a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. He really has nowhere to go but down. He's being mentioned here because last month he was listed as the player who had fallen the most. He's had a monstrous month since then. I still have the same reservations about him that I did a month ago. He has shown more patience, but he still has a very low walk rate. He's also struckout less so there's been some regression to the mean in both areas. Both are a little higher than you'd like, but no player is perfect.

Christian Villanueva has quietly put together another quality season on offense in AA. His rate stats aren't pretty. You could even look at them and dismiss him, but it's good enough to be quite a bit better than the average hitter (119 wRC+). He's also hit for more power since coming over in the trade last summer. His ISO this year is .175. Vaillanueva has consistently been between 19% and 26% better than the league average hitter. I don't think he really has the tools for that to translate well to MLB, but if you factor in his well above average defense, he's still a nice prospect.

We'll have an updated top prospects list tomorrow afternoon.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-23-13

Iowa Cubs 1 @ Memphis Redbirds 4

This will be short since the I-Cubs barely hit the ball last night.

Nick Struck went 6 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2 and struckout none. Casey Coleman struckout the side in the 7th. Yoanner Negrin gave up 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work.

Logan Watkins was 1-2 with 2 more walks. Brad Nelson was 1-3 with a walk. Ryan Sweeney and Brian Bogusevic were each 1-4.

Montgomery Biscuits 4 @ Tennessee Smokies 3

Kyle Hendricks struckout 9 and walked only 1 over 7 innings. He gave up just 3 hits and a run. In his 3 previous starts this season he had struckout 6 and walked 6. The walks are a bit concerning for Hendricks, who was acquired along with Christian Villanueva for Ryan Dempster. At Daytona last year he walked just 18 batters in 147.2 innings. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but with the kind of control he showed last year at Daytona, you don’t need to be.

Zach Rosscup struckout 3 and allowed a hit in his inning. Trey McNutt proved he was Cubs bullpen ready by giving up 3 hits and 2 walks in the 9th innings. He also gave up 3 runs.

Matt Szczur was 1-3 with a walk and Arismendy Alcantara was 0-3 with a walk. Jonathon Mota was 2-4 with a double and a home run.

Daytona Cubs 0 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 3

The Cubs had 0 runs on 4 hits so there won’t be much to talk about here either.

PJ Francescon allowed 5 hits and a run over 5 innings. He struckout 4 and walked 2. Yao-Lin Wang gave up 4 hits and a walk while surrendering 2 runs over 1.1 innings. Frank Del Valle struckout 4 and walked a batter in 1.2 innings of work.

In 8.2 innings pitched so far, Del Valle has an impressive 16 strikeouts. He’s also walked 7 batters so he’s been a little like Carlos Marmol. Neither his control or strikeout ability has been this high before. He’s generally thrown strikes and struckout a bit less than a batter an inning.

Ben Carhart was 2-3 with a double. John Andreoli was 1-3 and Matt Szczur was 1-4 with 2 strikeouts. Javier Baez was 0-3, but he did take a walk in his final at-bat. More of that, please.

Jorge Soler was 0-4. He’s returned to this place called Earth since returning from his suspension. He’s 1 for his last 13, but he’s still not striking out a lot. Has 9 strikeouts and 7 walks on the season.

Peoria Chiefs @ Kane County Cougars (Postponed)

2013 Cubs Prospects Ratings

A little over 2 weeks ago, I wrote an article with Uncle Dave's help about a different way to rate prospects. Dave got the idea from Hockey's Future.

Dave's explanations of what each number grade (ceiling) represented was so awesome that I used it word for word. I did want to clarify something on the letter grades (floor). An A represents a player who could lose a grade off of his ceiling. A player with a 9 could become an 8. Nobody has a 100% chance of reaching their ceiling and even few people will have an A. Each other letter grade is another number the player could drop. A 7D could end up at a 3.

The ratings below are for the 15 positional prospects that Myles wrote about, along with 6 pitching prospects. There is a way to take these ratings and create a rankings, which we'll get to at the end, but for now, the list below does not represent a ranking of the prospects.

Dave and I each wrote about the player in our correspondence. I'm going to try and pick and choose parts of each of our comments to include with the players. if you don't like something that was said, it was probably Uncle Dave who said it.

2013 Cubs Prospects: Position Players

Javier Baez: 9F. His tools scream superstar potential, though his upside rating takes a .5 to 1 point hit if he's shifted over to third. To this point, patience has been the only thing holding him back from being a top 10 prospect. So far, it's terrible, but he's young and there's plenty of time to fix it. If he does, a switch to 3rd won't much matter, which is probably inevitable with Starlin Castro at SS anyway. He's still young enough that he could wind up a AAAA guy if everything goes wrong. His performance this year will go a long way in putting a finer focus on his evaluations.

Albert Almora: 8E. Unusual for a player so young to get an E, but his makeup and defense make it a very good bet that he hits the bigs at some point, even if it's as the next incarnation of Bobby Scales. Tools are a bit short for an elite prospect. He only has 145 professional plate appearances and has yet to play in a full season league. He'll go to Kane County this year, but right now he's a guy who's an all around good talent, but has done little to nothing.

Jorge Soler: 9F. Tools and potential are a bit below Baez given his defensive position but his absolute upside is a guy who hits .300 with 40 HR most years, which puts him in the 'perennial all-star' conversation. He has more power potential, speed and raw athleticism than anyone else in the farm system except for the next guy on the list (the power part). Maybe even the entire organization, MLB included. Again, he's at a pretty critical juncture that could see his letter rating improve significantly by the end of the year, or his number rating drop. Due to the small sample and low levels he's performed at, he still has a long way to go and can therefore drop considerably. It would be easy to rate Soler higher than Baez, but the fact that Baez can play SS gives him the edge.

Dan Vogelbach: 8.5E. I'm giving him a better letter grade than Soler due to his approach and his outlier power. Vogelbach's power potential is off the charts and he's shown great plate discipline too. It's tough to give a guy who hasn't gotten past Boise that good of a letter, but at the same time, it's tough for me to envision that Vogelbach has a floor lower than Brad Nelson, who I think is a pretty solid 3.5 now that the dust has settled.

Brett Jackson: 7C. He could still sniff Mike Cameron's career arc, and even if he doesn't I think he's all but sure to catch on as a fifth OF for someone as long as he's cost controlled. He had his worst season at AAA, but still had a 107 wRC+. Even in his worst minor league season, he was a better than average hitter and played a premium position. He'll have to cut down on the strikeouts, but this is still a guy who has fringe all-star potential. ZiPS has him at 2.5 fWAR this season and Oliver at 1.9 fWAR. His strikeouts prevent him from being an elite talent, but Jackson still has an MLB career ahead of him.

Gioskar Amaya: 8F. Could wind up as an 8.5 with another year under his belt by dint of playing a middle infield position. He's shifted from SS to 2nd, plays above average defense, but without outlier tools it's tough to consider him a sure-fire bet to hit the bigs at his age.

Arismendy Alcantara: 7.5E. That optimistic upside rating is based on his developing power and playing SS. Could be lower. Letter grade is a shade better than those above him due to his experience at the mid-minors level and lower ceiling. The numbers aren't eye-popping or anything, but he was in the middle of a really good year in a pitcher's league before getting injured. If the improvement from last year is real, he's more of a sure thing than Amaya. The potential is there as he showed more power a year ago, but we'll know more this year.

Jeimer Candelario: 6D. Does not seem like he has all-star upside (for the sake of comparison, he has 6 HR in 310 PA at A-, and Vogelbach hit 10 in 168). Candelario just finished his age 18 season and he played the entire season from July until the end in Boise. He has age on his side, but right now the numbers just don't support someone who is going to be able to hit like a traditional 3rd baseman.

Logan Watkins: 6C. As with Jackson, looks a good bet to catch on as a utilityman somewhere. Upside of blossoming into Jose Hernandez with less bat and more glove not particularly inspiring, though. Another decent comp might be Todd Walker than was mentioned in the comments here recently. He has plate discipline, bats left handed and plays up the middle, which are all the reasons why he's likely to play at the MLB level for at least a few years.

Dave Sappelt: 5.5C. Can play CF, and if the on-base skills he showed in a small number of ABs in 2012 are real, he could be useful. If he hits like he did at Iowa last year, he will not be useful. He has a passable walk rate and a low strikeout rate. He also wins the award for looking like the smallest player I had ever seen on tv during an Iowa Cubs game. From a distance, he looked his size could match that of any 12 year old in Des Moines.

Marco Hernandez: 6.5E. Has shown flashes of gap power but has a long way to develop. Apparent ability to stick at SS makes him a legit top-list prospect until he completely stops hitting. His BABIP has been high in the low minors and at A ball he was exposed for his free swinging ways. His strikeout rate went through the roof and only had an OK walk rate.

Christian Villanueva: 6.5D. Consistent power and on-base skills promising in the low minors, though he's not been young at any stop. Needs to show an upward arc this year to justify his upside rating, perhaps by improving his hit tool or making the climb to being a 25 HR-type of guy. He reminds me a bit of Placido Polanco in that he might end up an underrated 3rd baseman. I wouldn't be too terribly surprised to see Villanueva at 3rd in 2014 and Logan Watkins at 2nd base.
Also in his favor, he was not blindsided by being traded for Ryan Dempster.

Junior Lake: 7E. Gap power and speed combo could play well if all goes right, especially if he sticks at SS. The fact that his best OBP to date has been .341 when repeating AA is a bit scary, though. If he doesn't take advantage of the PCL this year, there's a chance he washes out completely. You don't like seeing these sort of questions linger this long. Could be deserving a better letter grade due to his defense at SS. It's reportedly been MLB caliber for a couple years and guys who play good defense at SS, end up having at least a short career.

Matt Szczur: 5B. Has only performed well when old and repeating a level. His upside is limited by his age, though if he can add a bit more power and show the top end of his on-base skills he could be a useful regular. He'll never be a star, but his discipline improved last year. He struggled at AA and that's where he'll begin 2013. Makeup and glove make him a good bet to catch on as a fifth OF somewhere.

Josh Vitters: 4.5B. Last two years at age-appropriate stops in the minors were acceptable, though his value vanishes if he can't stick at 3B. Has already established value as a AAAA guy, so his floor is relatively high at this point. At the very least, Vitters will stick around the upper minors for awhile and maybe catch on at the MLB level from time to time with various teams.

2013 Cubs Prospects: Pitchers

The Cubs have 6 pitchers in their system that belong in the discussion with these 15 players. Unfortunately for the Cubs, most of them have very little professional experience, some of them have significant injury concerns above what you'd expect from any pitcher and they're mostly a very long way from reaching the big leagues.

Pitchers are harder to rate and/or rank than position players. Pitchers have a tendency to get injured. Injuries often don't heal completely and even prevent players from improving. Some of the times, they just get worse. Years ago, Baseball Prospectus came up with TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect).

Myself, and most others, even at BPro these days, would disagree with that, but it started for a reason: young pitchers are very difficult to project.

Dave and I ignored the inherit injury risk for pitchers with the exceptions of those who have already experienced them. If you didn't ignore this, almost all pitchers would receive a very low ceiling. This doesn't help us in terms of ratings the prospects. We can accept the reality that pitchers face while also sometimes ignoring that risk.

Arodys Vizcaino: 8F. There's a lot to like here, with two plus pitches and what appears to be pretty good control. It's pretty easy to imagine him being a classic front-end power pitcher. He's still young, throws hard and has been very impressive at the minor league level. His K-BB% was outstanding in the minor leagues and definitely indicates someone who could be a front of the rotation starter. However, he's recovering from TJS and we will need to monitor his recovery. Persistent arm trouble could keep him out of the bigs. We'll keep our fingers crossed on this one.

Dillon Maples: 8G. Second verse, same as the first, little bit louder and even though Maples appears to have a similar skillset as Vizcaino, a little bit worse. Hard throwing righty with a great curveball, signed in 2011 and has all of 10.1 professional innings to his name. Scouts haven't been too impressed with his mechanics and while 10.1 innings is nothing, he hasn't impressed them with his control. Still has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter, or a number 2, depending on which scout you read. Injury troubles this early are never a good sign. Also, he gets demerits for claiming on Twitter that the USA has the best national anthem in the world, which shows disturbing lack of judgement (or at least bad taste in music). Very low floor due to early injury history.

Duane Underwood: 8G. Another very live arm, but unsurprisingly lacks polish given his debut age last year was just 17. Among all the potential starters, he probably throws harder than any of them. He could get a bump in upside over Maples due to his easy velocity (said to hit 97 in live action) at such a young age, but there are a lot of questions with pitchers of this age. Won't really have a good feel for what he might be able to do until he has a couple of years under his belt. Could have 3 plus pitches, but all of them need work.

Pierce Johnson: 6D. Forearm troubles his junior year at Missouri State kept him out of the first round of the draft. The Cubs selected him with their first pick of the 2nd day. Showcases a good curveball and is fairly polished after three years at the University of Missouri. Ceiling isn't quite as high as some others on this list but I'd expect him to move up relatively quickly (could be in the high minors next year if all breaks right). He sits 90-92 and reaches 96. He only has 11 professional innings, but has good command and can strike some batters out. ETA is much sooner than the previous two pitchers.

Paul Blackburn: 7F. Throws fairly hard considering his age and stature, said to have good mechanics. His potential to physically mature gives him a slightly higher upside than we saw with Johnson. Still a long way off, so it will be a while before we can really refine this grade. Everything with Blackburn is projectability at this point. Scouts are hopeful his velocity ticks up some, which it should. They like his mound presence and polish. They think he could eventually have 3 plus pitches. Key word, eventually. The Cubs liked Blackburn a lot and he's more polished than Maples and Underwood so he could move more quickly through the system.

Juan Paniagua: 6E. Big arm, but unusually thin resume for his age. My sense is that he's basically the same developmentally as a first-year high school draftee, but he's 23 (supposedly). That makes it tough to imagine him as anything more than a bullpen arm or back-end starter as he just has too much to figure out. Raw talent requires giving him a fair upside rating, though. MLB lists his age as undetermined. According to documents, which can't possibly be trusted considering it's his third official document, he'll be 23 in less than a week and has a very long way to go. The Cubs signed him for $1.5 million so they really liked what they saw. He's currently having Visa issues and hasn't arrived in the US yet, which will only further delay what we know about him.

What if we wanted to combine the upside and floor so we could rank the players? This isn't something I'm particularly interested in. One of the reasons why I like this system so much is that it gets away from ranking and puts more focus on something that I think is more useful to us. Whether a guy is ranked 1st, 2nd or 3rd really doesn't tell us much about the player.

People do enjoy their rankings so we can use the upside and floor to create them in a more objective manner. Multiply the upside by 10 and subtract 5 from each letter below A. So a 5B player would be 45. Here they are.

Javier Baez 65
Jorge Soler 65
Dan Vogelbach 65
Albert Almora 60
Brett Jackson 60
Gioskar Amaya 55
Arismendy Alcantara 55
Arodys Vizcaino 55
Logan Watkins 50
Christian Villanueva 50
Junior Lake 50
Dillon Maples 50
Duane Underwood 50
Jeimer Candelario 45
Dave Sappelt 45
Marco Hernadez 45
Matt Szczur 45
Pierce Johnson 45
Paul Blackburn 45
Josh Vitters 40
Juan Paniagua 40

I'd like to thank Dave for being a tremendous help in understanding these ratings, helping me write this and for allowing me to waste so much of his time. It's at least his work as much as mine. Much thanks goes to Hockey's Future for the idea.

That revamped Cubs rotation

Much has been written here in the last few days about the Cubs rotation injuries and what it means for the overall strength of the rotation. Most, or actually all of that has been negative. Sure, losing Garza can't be spun as a positive so I'm not going to do that.

As the resident optimist, I am here to assure you that the Cubs rotation is still better than last year and better by a wide margin compared to the rotation the Cubs ended the season with (Garzaless, Dempsterless and Samardzijaless).

The first thing we have to do as fans when trying to compare a rotation right now to a rotation from a previous season is to compare apples to apples. We want to compare this rotation to, for the purposes of this post, to last year's rotation by comparing the strength of each prior to the start of the season. Come July we can compare how the groups have performed, but right now, we have to compare pre-season to pre-season.

For last year's rotation, I'm only going to say two words: Jeff Samardzija.

I can't just say two words because, like Boyd Crowder, it takes me 40 words when 4 will do. See how I've already turned those two words into a bunch of crap? I'm good at that.

When the Cubs announced that Jeff Samardzija would be in last year's rotation it was maddening, funny and everything in between. He was the worst possible starting pitcher on the roster based on what we knew at this point a year ago. Clearly the Cubs knew something we didn't and good for them, but we didn't know that and anybody who wants to say that 40 innings of decent work in the bullpen in 2011 predicted the kind of season he had last year is full of it.

Ryan Dempster was the opening day starter last year. He was followed by Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija (not only did he make the roster, but he was the number 3 starter!), Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm. Based on their previous years, I think most people expected little to nothing from Samardzija and Volstad. Most of us figured Travis Wood would come up soon enough to replace one of them. He did. Volstad kind of sucked and went to the minors.

Using the OV projected playing time for 2012, the 5 members of the rotation were projected to be worth 7.9 WAR. The most recent CAIRO projections for the projected starting 5 this season is 7.8 WAR. Those 5 are Edwin Jackson (3.2), Matt Garza (2.4), Jeff Samardzija (1.6), Scott Feldman (1.2) and Scott Baker (0.4).

Our OV projected playing times for those 5 last year was 873 innings, CAIRO, due to recent injuries to some of these pitchers, is only projecting 607 innings. The projections are based on the last few years and, take Jeff Samardzija for example, he was a reliever prior to 2012 so he's only projected to throw 135 innings. Scott Baker is projected to throw only 30 innings.

Adjust those innings upwards and the rotation we expected this season is better than last year's. It's not a great rotation, but CAIRO and PECOTA have Samardzija projected much lower than a couple of the others.

Scott Baker has recorded an out this spring before having to undergo another MRI. Matt Garza is battling an injury and will miss at least the first monty of the season. The rotation is shaping up to be Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva. Samardzija, Jackson and Feldman are projected by CAIRO to be worth 6 WAR.

The CAIRO for Travis Wood is 1.9 WAR and it's 1.0 WAR for Villanueva. So the expected Cubs rotation is projected to be worth 8.9 WAR, which is better than last year's rotation to begin the season.

Even if the Cubs lose another pitcher or two to the DL, they're likely to be better than they were at the end of the season. Guys like Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley and others can't be expected to be nearly as bad as they were. Even a guy like Josh Vitters would improve upon his season last year because you can't do anything but improve.

Walking someone when it doesn't matter (as much)

For each pitcher from 1993-2011 with at least 5,000 Batters Faced, I've added up the average growth in run expectancy per NIBB. The average increase in RE for an NIBB over that period was .323 runs, which jives with Tango's findings here. There were 175 pitchers in the sample, with a standard deviation of .013.

The pitcher who gave up the least damaging change in RunEx with at least 5,000 BFP was Rick Reed at .258 RE/NIBB, a full .065 better than the league in that time. Reed scores just ahead of Gregg Maddux at #2 with a change of RE .041 better than the league. – James Gentile

Greg Maddux is 2nd best behind Rick Reed. Interestingly, Steve Trachsel is next. The 7th worst is Kerry Wood and the worst is Ryan Dempster.

Rant Sports: The Chicago Cubs Continue To Prove They’re a Joke In Failed Anibal Sanchez Signing

If blogs could be designated for assignment, Rant Sports, along with Bleacher Report, would have been DFA'd a long time ago. They're not even replacement level blogs worthy of the minimal amount of attention, but here we are: paying attention to them because there isn't anything else to write about. So why not make fun of the less intelligent among us? I don't have an answer so let's get to it.

The Chicago Cubs Continue To Prove They’re a Joke In Failed Anibal Sanchez Signing

There are many reasons the Chicago Cubs are a joke, but the failed Anibal Sanchez signing isn't one of them. It's frustrating for sure, but at the end of the day it would have been a questionable contract anyway so it's pretty easy to move on.

Not long after news broke that the Cubs “signed” Sanchez, reports surfaced that it wasn’t a done deal and the Detroit Tigers were still in the running. Of course Sanchez ended up signing with the Tigers for 80 million instead of the reported 5 years 75 million the Cubs had “signed” him for. What a joke of a franchise.

It happens. While I agree things like this have happened far too much over the past 6 months, it does happen. It could be that this front office is terrible at keeping things under wraps or it could just be a fluke. I don't have any idea which it is, but I am certain of this: if the front office is terrible at keeping things secret, it will in in no way whatsoever impact the talent on the club now or in the future. I struggle to understand how something that has no impact can make the Cubs a joke of an organization. That's like saying a right fielder is a joke of a player because he wasn't charging the ball on a routine pop fly to 3rd base.

Theo Epstein was brought in to fix, build, and turn this franchise around. So far, he’s been at the front of THREE botched signings/trades. What do I mean by botched?

Well, the definition of botch is the following according to my google machine:

1. To ruin through clumsiness.

2. To make or perform clumsily; bungle.

3. To repair or mend clumsily.

n.

1. A ruined or defective piece of work: "I have made a miserable botch of this description" (Nathaniel Hawthorne).

2. A hodgepodge.

I'm going to take a stab in the dark and say you mean that. Just a guess.

His staff leaking TWO completed trades before they were official, and now Sanchez. Dempster was traded to Atlanta….oops. Carlos Marmol was traded for Dan Haren….my bad….Anibal Sanchez signs with the Cubs….eek.

Let's say they did leak it. It didn't affect the outcome. Dempster declined to accept a trade to Atlanta. He didn't really want to go there and since he had no-trade rights, it was entirely his decision. The Cubs backed out on Dan Haren because of injury issues and rightly so. Haren only signed a 1-year deal as a free agent and was let go by the Angels. As for Sanchez, the Cubs estimated his value at around $75 million and reportedly offered as much as $77.5 million to get the deal done. Seeing as they estimated his value at that, they were reluctant to go over that because, you know, they didn't value him for more than that.

None of these are bad decisions by the Cubs. Not a single one of them and anyone who argues otherwise is fucking stupid.

Are you kidding me Cubs?

No, they're not kidding you. They're running a business and don't much give a shit what you think. Sorry about that.

What kind of Mickey Mouse organization are you running over there?

A bad one that hopes to improve. There's an article to be written about this and the possible cons of such of a plan, but it's not one that will ever appear on a below replacement level blog like Rant Sports.

Here’s a thought

Oh goody. Rant Sports Thoughts.

keep your mouths shut until the ink is dry. How many times is that going to happen? Once, okay…but THREE times? Wow.

Oh, I was thinking it was actually going to be the first thought ever on Rant Sports. I was wrong.

Once again, the Cubs show that they’re a complete joke of an organization.

But not because of this. It's difficult to understand.

The good news in all this?

That Rant Sports will continue to entertain us?

How much ass could this Cubs team suck if this Cubs team could suck ass?

Short answer: probably not much more ass than they sucked last year. After all, the Cubs have lost 101 or more games only 2 other times in franchise history. It's not easy being as bad as the 2012 Cubs were.

Long answer?

The 2012 Cubs joined the 1962 and 1966 teams as the only ones in franchise history to lose 100 or more games. The 2012 Cubs can rest assured that they did not post the team's worst record as the other two teams each lost 103. You may say that's not fair becuase they haven't always played 162 games. You'd be correct.

Their .377 winning percentage was 4th worst in history. The two teams from the 60s were worse and so was the strike shortened 1981 Cubs who played only 106 games.

The 1962 Cubs could at least argue they were the youngest in baseball. Their position players were the youngest in baseball and averaged over 2 years younger than the league. The pitchers were the 3rd youngest. There were 9 teams whose position players were younger than the Cubs in 2012 and 13 teams had a younger pitching staff.

You have to go back to 1992 to find a full season in which the Cubs scored fewer runs than the 2012 club did. You then have to look back to 1976 to find another full season that they scored fewer runs.

The Cubs basically did nothing to improve their offense. They re-signed two players who had been non-tendered in Nate Schierholtz and Ian Stewart. Both are essentially replacement level players and the Cubs have the unfortunate luck of paying them more than $4 million combined. To make room for Schierholz in RF, they're going to move David DeJesus to a position in which he'll be a worse fielder.

They haven't done much to improve their pitching either. They replaced Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm with the Scotts. Scott Baker hasn't made a start since August 8th, 2011 (he did make 2 relief appearances in September of that year) and Scott Feldman. Feldman has a career 4.81 ERA and an FIP over 4.5. He has only thrown 150 or more innings twice in his career (151.1 in 2008 and 189.2 in 2009). Not to mention, the Cubs have a lot more uncertainty with Matt Garza than they did entering last season.

The Cubs probably do suck more ass right now than they did entering last season, but I still think it's unlikely they lose more games. It's damn hard to lose more than 100 games. The Cubs have sucked for most of their existence and have done it only 3 times. It's possible the Cubs lose more games, but I think it's more likely they'll lose fewer while being a worse team.

h/t to Suburban Kid for the idea of this post and mikeakaleroy for the headline

Winter Meetings Facepalm UPDATED

The Winter Meetings are underway and even though the Cubs won't be that active, I wanted to keep up with what's going on with them.

Kyuji Fujikawa

It still appears as though the Cubs have signed Fujikawa to a 2-year deal worth $9.5 million plus an option. However, the Cubs have not yet confirmed this.

Early arriving scouts at the Gaylord Opryland Resort on Sunday for the Winter Meetings were as curious as Cubs fans: Did the team sign Japanese free agent pitcher Kyuji Fujikawa or not?

The Cubs continue to keep quiet about Fujikawa, whom they have reportedly inked to a two-year, $9.5 million contract. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and MLB Network reported the deal on Saturday, saying Fujikawa would receive a signing bonus of $1 million and $4 million in salaries in 2013 and '14. There also was a vesting option valued at $5.5 million or $6 million, to be determined by games finished.

Cubs officials would neither confirm nor comment on the report. – Carrie Muskat

My guess is that the contract is official depending on a physical, but I was under the impression he was still in the US so that shouldn't take all that long. I haven't heard any reports that deny the Cubs signed him so I think we can be about 95% certain they did.

3rd Base

Muskat also mentioned the Cubs will be looking for a 3rd baseman after they non-tendered Ian Stewart. Josh Vitters provided no reason whatsoever to think he's capable of playing that position every day and Luis Valbuena will at the very least need a platoon partner. I still like the idea of signing Kevin Youkilis, but the Cubs have been in contact with Jeff Keppinger.

Peter Gammons Q&A

Tim Dierkes of MLBTR did an interview with Peter Gammons and I really enjoyed it. This part blew my mind:

Is there any reason the Dodgers can't jump up to a $300MM payroll in a couple of years?

I think it's a distinct possibility. I could see them at least going $220MM. Some of the people in the organization have said that the goal is to have an All-Star at every position. George Steinbrenner had that same goal once in the 80s. It'll be fascinating to see. They clearly understand baseball is entertainment. The competition with the Angels for the market and the Giants for the division is absolutely fascinating. It's such a high-stakes poker game, it's going to be really fun to watch.

Gammons also talks about the shift from the AL East to the West (both divisions).

Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano will be shopped as the Cubs have done for at least a full year now. They had worked out a trade with the Giants at the deadline, but he extercised his no-trade rights. The Cubs will have to kick in some money to find a team and probably won't get much in return. Bill James projects a league average .325 wOBA for Soriano next year. He's due to make $36 million over the final two years of his contract and the Cubs have already found one team interested so my guess is that Soriano will be traded this winter.

UPDATES

* Justin Upton is still on the block and the Cubs have been connected to him at least twice so far, but that doesn't appear to be the case right now. I'd love to acquire Justin Upton if he's really available. He's the perfect age the Cubs are looking for and he'd instantly be the best player on the team.

* The Brewers and Ryan Dempster are talking. The Brewers reportedly want a 2-year deal while Dempster is seeking more than that.