Tag: ryan dempster

Series Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks (1-1) at Chicago Cubs (1-2)

All I should have to say about yesterday’s game is that the Cubs lost on a 2-run infield single. It was that kind of day.

However, despite the fact that the Cubs lost two games to the emintently beatable Pirates there were things to be happy about. Here’s a breakdown of what we learned

The Good

  • Starlin Castro. What a great start to the season. He hit two triples yesterday, and his baserunning led to seemingly half of the Cubs runs in the series. Even if everything else goes to shit it will be exciting to watch him this year.
  • Matt Garza fought the luck dragon for 7 innings in his first officially official start in a Cubs uniform, but I think it was good enough to make sure the fans didn’t turn on him out of the gate for not being Cy Young. He set a career high of 12 strikeouts and threw boatloads of strikes. He didn’t walk anyone and gave up 12 singles, and it seemed like every one of them were seeing eye grounders.
  • Carlos Pena is as good as advertised on defense. Brenly seems to have a new man-crush but at least it’s on a player that’s actually pretty good. I think the over/under on the number of times we’ll hear about Pena’s pregame fungo routine for the rest of the season should be set around 50 times.
  • Geovany Soto is batting higher in the order at last. We’re still seeing a few dumb lineup things like Barney batting second, but I don’t think we’ll see that as often as we’ll see Soto batting 5th or 6th.
  • Carlos Marmol had his jaw-dropping slider working in Saturday’s game.
  • Colvin looked as good defensively as we should expect, given his ability to hack it in CF, in nailing Jaramillo at the plate in the 8th inning of Sunday’s game to preserve the Cubs lead. He looked a little lost in RF last year but if his glove shows up he’ll be better than the replacement level 4th outfielder that the projections see him as.

The Bad

  • The Cubs offense is going to struggle to score runs. They scored 12 in this series,and were helped by 4 unearned runs thanks to the Pirates crappy defense. The Cubs are also swinging at everything. They didn’t have a good PA in Saturday’s game until Z’s double in the third inning. In that PA he saw as many pitches as the team did in the first and second innings.
  • Marlon Byrd needs to move down the lineup, and soon. After a gift throw into RF by Ronny Cedeno to gift-wrap the Cubs chances to tie the game on a sac fly, Marlon continued his habit seen through the series of swinging on the first pitch. He grounded out into a game ending double play.
  • Carlos Marmol did not have his jaw-dropping slider working in Sunday’s game. However, even when Marmol’s wild he can still get away with it at times. He walked the first hitter, the second hiter hit a flare just over Barney, but then the pirates gave up an out and he got the WAG that usually gets him out of trouble. Just bad luck that it glanced off of Marmol and a bad decision by Castro. Pena did a great job corraling the throw but it was too late for it to matter.

Anyway, that’s behind us now. The Cubs host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a 3-game series before their first road trip of the season. Arizona is 1-1 after Sunday’s game in Colorado was cancelled due to snow.

Team Overview

BP projects the Diamondbacks to be the low team on the totem pole in the NL west this season, with a record of 76-86. Their biggest problem is their pitching staff, which is projected to give up the second most runs after only the Coors-aided Rockies staff. To be fair, they do play in a hitters’ park themselves.

Since not much has happened in the season so far I’m just going to post their main players’ ZiPS projections.

Position Players

Player wOBA ADR
SS Drew .337 2
RF Upton .377 8
2b Johnson .358 4
1b Branyan .374 5
CF Young .340 7
C Montero .332 -5
3b Mora .309 -6
LF Nady .321 0

Drew is banged up and didn’t play in the first two games, so there’s a good chance Willie Bloomquist will get at least one of the starts if not all of them, given the weather in Chicago.

Pitchers

Player FIP
Dan Hudson 3.62
Saunders 4.65

Kennedy

 4.06
Enright 4.84
Gallaraga 4.97
Putz (CL) 3.40
Hernandez 4.83

Former Pirate Zach Duke would normally be in the rotation, but a line drive in spring training broke his hand, putting him out for 6-8 weeks.

Players to watch:

Aside from the obvious Cubs choice, Starlin Castro, I’ll pick an ex-Cub in Xavier Nady (the one armed bandit) for the DBacks. I hope we get to see numerous lollipop throws back to the infield in this series.

Pitching Matchups:

(ZiPS projected FIP in parentheses)

Monday: Joe Saunders, LHP (4.65) vs Randy Wells, RHP (3.95)

Saunders came to the DBacks as part of the Angels’ Dan Haren robbery. Saunders had a breakout year in 2008, posting a 3.41 ERA and 17 wins for the Angels. However, that was tempered by a .266 BABIP and a good measure of HR luck. The following year he posted a 4.60 ERA and a 5.17 FIP, but still somehow managed to win 16 games. For some reason that was good enough for the DBacks to grab him.

Wells is looking to bounce back from his “sophomore slump”, in which his ERA jumped by a point and a quarter but his peripherals stayed just about the same. Hopefully the groundballs he’ll generate won’t find all the holes that Garza’s did yesterday.

Tuesday: Barry Enright, RHP (4.84) vs Andrew Cashner, RHP (4.46)

Enright posted superficially solid numbers after being called up from AA last year, posting a 3.91 ERA and a 6-7 record in 99 innings. However, his .248 BABIP had a lot to do with that, and his FIP and xFIP were 5.62 and 4.96 respectively. It looks like he’s a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike a lot of guys out, which is not a great combo.

I’m glad that this is the game that I’ll actually be able to catch all of (stupid work), as I’m excited to see what Cashner can do this season. He definitely got a great matchup for his first start. From what I remember his change-up was starting to look good in ST, and if that trend continues he should be able to stick in the rotation.

Wednesday: Armando Galarraga, RHP (4.97) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (3.73)

Galarraga is of course famous for the near perfect game with the Tigers last season. He was 8 2/3 of an inning through it and was fed the ball on a groundout to 1b to seal the deal when veteran umpire Jim Joyce ruled the runner safe (replay showed that he was out). Despite all the media hoopla around the play, Galarraga and Joyce both handled the situation well. Joyce tearfully apologized after the game and (gasp) admitted that he made a mistake. Galarraga accepted the situation gracefully saying “nobody’s perfect”, and went to great length to assure Joyce that there was no bad blood. Perfect game notwithstanding, Galarraga was never that great of a pitcher and the Tigers released him in the offseason.

Dempster started strong but fell apart in his opening day start. He lost control in the 5th and Neil Walker made him pay with a grand slam, and after Quade put him out in the 7th (with 100+ pitches and two shaky innings in the bank) he gave up another HR to put it out of reach of the Cubs offensive offense.

Prediction

The matchups look good in all three of these games. I like the Cubs to win two out of three to bring themselves back to .500

Continue reading “Series Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks (1-1) at Chicago Cubs (1-2)”

Random Thoughts

Three games doesn’t tell us anything, but they were three predictable games. The offense struggled, which they’re going to do all season long. That’s especially true against right-handed pitchers. The defense let the team down late in Sunday’s game. Rather than a tie, a defensive mistake allowed the Pirates to take the lead. The pitching staff was solid, which they mostly will be this season. The Cubs made at least one mistake on the bases and nearly one or two others. That’s going to happen a lot this season too.

I didn’t single any player out because I don’t think it’s important. People say it’s a team game and it is even though we can measure the individual contributions of each player. Three games in there’s no reason to single anyone out for mistakes. The point I’m making is that the Cubs played about as well as we can expect them to play this season. At least in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Strength: pitching. Weakness: everything else. That’s how it was this weekend and that’s how it will be much of the season.

Starlin Castro is fun to watch. I’d forgotten just how much fun. It’s obviously more fun when he collects 8 hits in 3 games as well as a walk. He showed more power in spring training and he’s shown the ability to drive the ball a bit more so far this season. Don’t go expecting 25 home runs like And Counting is or you’re likely to find yourself booing him at some point. If he does hit 25 I’ll pretend I agreed with AC about the 25 home run prediction. It will make me seem smarter that way.

He’s not a finished player, but he’s still the youngest player in the game. 

The top three starters for the Cubs lost two of three games vs the top three of the Pirates. That’s probably not a good sign, but it’s also not exactly their fault. When you score 7 runs in the two losses combined, you can’t expect to win too many ballgames. You’re certainly going to lose more than you win. 

How many more times do we have to hear about Carlos Pena saving errors? Is he the only 1st baseman who scoops balls out of the dirt? Isn’t that kind of important for 1st basemen? I’m betting that the ones who struggle at picking it out of the dirt are the ones who find themselves in AAA for a long time. It’s part of the job. Maybe Pena is better than the average player. I can buy that, but this talk about him saving X number of errors is irrelevant unless you’re going to tell me how many errors the average 1st baseman saves. 

I’m all for Darwin Barney playing 2nd base. May as well see what he has. Play him every day. I’m not expecting much. In fact, I expect he’ll be sent to AAA by the end of May. Play Colvin every day too. That’s what I’d do. However, if the Cubs want to win games, you platoon Tyler Colvin and Alfonso Soriano, not Fukudome and Colvin. You platoon Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker, not Baker and Barney. 

Marlon Byrd batting 3rd doesn’t bother me. That’s the least important spot in the top 5 spots in the lineup according to the extensive research in The Book. That seems a good spot for him. Speaking of Marlon Byrd, he’s been awful since the middle of last season. 

It’s nice to see Alfonso Soriano come through. I always like that because I fear he’s going to get booed out of the stadium if he doesn’t. And when he doesn’t, he usually is booed out of the ballpark. 

Carlos Zambrano left with cramps on Saturday. It’s a problem he’s had throughout his career. It seems to me that Z has something that’s causing that. Even if it isn’t, big deal. He was ready to come out of the game anyway so it doesn’t really matter.

Matt Garza allowed 12 hits, struckout 12 and walked nobody in 7 innings. If that’s happened before, it hasn’t happened often. Most of the hits were seeing eye grounders. Overall, he had a really good first start and it was easily the best of the three so far. 

I’m glad Kerry Wood is wearing a Cubs uniform again. I just wish he’d be wearing the Cubs uniform while playing for the Yankees or Red Sox. I’d like to see Wood win a championship and I’m afraid that’s not happening for him with the Cubs. 

Carlos Marmol remains the up and down pitcher we’re used to seeing. One day he looks like he’s literally the best relief pitcher not named Mariano Rivera. The next day is a different story.

The Cubs play 3 at home vs the Diamondbacks before hitting the road. They have Randy Wells pitching tomorrow afternoon followed by Andrew Cashner and Ryan Dempster. I’m excited to watch Cashner pitch in the rotation. A quick look at the probables shows the Cubs probably have the pitching advantage in at least 2 of those games (Wells and Dempster). No idea as far as Tuesday’s game goes. 

Continue reading “Random Thoughts”

Cubs Officially Won’t Lose Them All


What have we learned so far in the two games the Cubs have played?  Not a ton, but there are some things about how the games have gone so far that stuck out to me.

1) Scoring runs is going to be an ordeal more often than we’d like.

The Cubs have scored four earned runs in two games and been handed four other unearned runs.  The Cubs aren’t always going to face the Pirates and their terrible defense, so the Cubs are going to have to score some runs on their own if they want to win games.  They have 19 hits in two days, so getting on base hasn’t been the problem.  The top two men in the order have reached base in 10 of 19 plate appearances, so the problem hasn’t been guys not getting on in front of the meat of the order.  The problem is that the 3-4-5 hitters have one RBI between them in two games with runners on base all over the place.  That can’t continue. For what it is worth, I don’t expect that to be as pronounced an issue as it has been the first two games.

2) It’s good Dempster and Zambrano were flip-flopped in the rotation.

Yes, Dempster’s results weren’t all that good, but he gets a pass because he’s Ryan Dempster.  At least, the media hasn’t seemed to jump on him for giving up a booming grand slam after getting himself into a mess via the walk (as he did in a certain playoff game).  The narrative seems to be that Dempster pitched OK, but didn’t execute a few key pitches.  Last year, Zambrano had to deal with the Lollipop Guild as his middle-infield defense that allowed weak grounder after weak grounder up the middle to get into the outfield, and then didn’t execute a pitch to Jason Heyward on a homerun that has just left the solar system.  The media couldn’t wait to blame Zambrano for not being an Opening Day calibre pitcher and things went downhill from there. So I’m glad it was Dempster giving up the bomb this year so we got spared that narrative.

3) Starlin Castro is really, really good at baseball.

This kid just keeps getting better and he is growing up right in front of us.  Enjoy it.  He’s special.

4) Carlos Pena is pretty good at defense.

He has snagged a number of throws that I’m sure Xavier Nady (or Colvin) would have just waved at as they bounded on by.  He may never be the bat we want him to be, but at least he can catch the ball and help out our infielders in preventing runs.

5) I haven’t had to swear at the bullpen yet.

Pretty much every reliever has looked OK, with the exception of Samardzija and that is shocking to nobody.  Even Grabow looked effective.  Again, it is difficult to extrapolate anything from it, but it certainly is nice to be saying that when they’ve been effective instead of trying to make ourselves feel better after craptastic outings like some of the other NL Central bullpens have had to do already.

6) It took four fewer games to get a win against Pittsburgh this year.

Let’s just breathe a sigh of relief on that one.

That’s what I’ve taken from the first two games, anyway.

Continue reading “Cubs Officially Won’t Lose Them All”

Probably something about nothing

Prior to tomorrow's game we'll be posting the final NL Central interview. I had planned to post it this evening, but I thought I'd throw something else together.

Anyone who has read much of anything of mine over the years knows that I'm not one of those people who goes nuts over pitch counts. That doesn't mean I don't pay attention or that I don't think there are certain things that should be done. I do. My opinion is that you take the starter out after 3 times through the order unless he's an elite pitcher. That's basically the idea and I don't want to dive too much into it because it's not really important.

In today's 6-3 Opening Day loss to the Pirates, Ryan Dempster had what I'd call a so-so start. At times he looked excellent and he made a couple huge mistakes. In the end, Dempster allowed 6 runs in 6.2 innings. Mistakes happen. These won't be the only ones Dempster makes this season and the ones today aren't any more or less important than ones he'll make down the road.

In those 6.2 innings Dempster threw 114 pitches. The previous three seasons Dempster threw 91, 98 and 95 pitches in his first start of the season. It was rather cold today at Wrigley Field. It's been cold early in the season before in Chicago. I was kind of surprised to see that in 2009 Dempster's second start he threw 110 pitches. The following year he threw 114 in his second start. Last year he threw 120 in his third start and 111 in his next.

Not being injured in the past doesn't mean he's going to be injury free in the future, but it's clear he's thrown high pitch counts very early in the season in the past. My initial reaction was probably a little too negative. I'd have preferred Dempster not throw over 110 pitches today, but I generally don't like to see pitchers on the mound at 110 pitches anyway.

It's not because of the potential of injury down the road. It's because by that time pitchers are almost always working on the order the fourth time and the offense has a significant advantage at that point. I also understand that managers would don't tend to take that into consideration even though it's something Greg Maddux has talked about many times. So it's clearly something that is talked about amongst the players and/or coaches. I think managers prefer to use their starters in fear of their bullpen or in fear of having to use too many relievers in the future.

It's probably not a good idea, but I don't think it should have irritated me either. Dempster has handled it in the past and was certainly near or above 100 pitches in his next to last start in Arizona. I hope we don't see him throwing over 110 pitches in several consecutive starts, but until that happens I think I overreacted.