Tag: ryan dempster

Cubs sign Scott Feldman

The Cubs added another right handed starting pitcher to their team today when they signed Scott Feldman to a 1-year deal for $6 million. There's another million bucks in incentives. Although he hasn't come close to a full season pitched in terms of innings but one time in his career, he's been relatively healthy. He hasn't had an arm injury since 2006 and that was a forearm injury. He battled through a knee injury in 2010 and then missed most of 2011 due to a knee surgery.

Following his impressive 2009 season the Rangers bought out his final years of club control with a 2-year deal for $11.5 million. The Rangers held a $9.25 million club option for 2013, but declined it.

According to pitch f/x on Fangraphs, his most common pitch is a sinker that he threw at an average of 91.5 mph last year (91.7 in 2011 and just below 91 in 2010). He also throws a cutter, curveball, changeup and the occasional 4-seam fastball. He threw his cutter most often last year against lefties, which isn't too surprising. He threw the sinker more frequently against righties.

He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't strike a lot of batters out (just 17.9% last year). He also doesn't walk many hitters (6% last year, 8% in his career).

Despite keeping the ball on the ground, and in the ballpark about as one would expect, he's never really had as good an ERA as you might expect. His career ERA is over 4.8 and he has a 4.56 FIP and 4.52 xFIP. He had an ERA over 5 last year, but his FIP and xFIP were in the 3.80s. He's a guy who has been up and down throughout his career though mostly he's just been down.

His career fWAR is only 8.7 in 727 innings. He has 4.7 career WARP and 3.0 rWAR. Over the past few seasons his fWAR is 3.9 in just under 300 innings. The WARP is 2.9 and his rWAR -0.7. His rWAR was -1.1 in 2010 and he followed that with 0.4 in 40+ innings and only 0.0 last year.

He has some upside, but then again, what MLB player doesn't? Throwing strikes is something this team hasn't excelled at over the past decade, but it's something the new front office is emphasizing. They're also going after pitchers will good control though the K-BB% is still probably not as good as the types of pitchers the Cubs went after before.

I don't think that's too surprising considering the type of player the Cubs are targeting. They're not going after the higher profile players, but rather the guys who might come at a bargain.

As far as bargains go, this one looks to be a pretty good one. CAIRO projects 100 innings pitched and a 4.73 ERA. it projects an FIP of 4.27 and 1.1 WAR. Those projections are for the Rangers so a move to the NL will lower those rates a bit and increase the WAR. Bill James projects a 4.19 ERA and 4.14 FIP while Guru projects and ERA over 5.

It seems to me that Guru is probably a little too pessimistic while Bill James a little too optimistic. That said, I expect Feldman to be worth a little over a win and be worth the $6 million he's being paid. There's the possibility he's much worse or a little better making him a good bargain.

It's a good sign by the Cubs. There's little to risk and potentially something to gain. If Feldman can show that last season is something that can be repeated the Cubs get a chance to have a solid 3rd or 4th starter and someone they could extend.

Dave Cameron put it well here:

Feldman might not have the reputation of a quality starter yet, but he’s shown the skills necessary to become a perfectly acceptable middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. Last year, he ran a 3/1 K/BB ratio while maintaining an average ground ball rate, putting him in the same xFIP range as guys like Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Dan Haren,. He doesn’t have the same track record of success as those guys, but he’s also going to cost a fraction of the price, and offers the same low BB/average K/average GB skillset.

In a more friendly home ballpark and with better results at stranding runners, Feldman projects to be something not too far from a league average starting pitcher in 2013. And, while he’s going to be labeled a stop-gap type of signing, he doesn’t turn 30-years-old until February, so there’s no reason to think that the Cubs can’t extract longer term value from him if he pitches well in 2013. With Feldman and Baker, the Cubs have added a couple of pieces to their rotation who aren’t just pump-and-dump guys, but could be solid pieces to build future rotations around as well. This isn’t just patching a hole because the Cubs need arms for next season – these deals are investments in buying low on pitchers who could be part of the next good Cubs team, even if that team is still several years away.

There's a bit of a small sample size issue when he compares Feldman's last 150 innings to those of Dempster, Jackson, Lohse and Haren who have consistently put up above average xFIPs. Prior to the previous 150, Feldman had been much worse so take the sample size stuff written there with a grain of salt.

What we know about the potential Dan Haren trade

I've been a bit under the weather the past week so I have read very little Cubs related news with the exception of what's been posted on this site. I know Berselius mentioned something about people on his twitter feed being upset at the Cubs for failing to complete another trade. If I understood him correctly, they argue that this nearly completed trade, along with that of Ryan Dempster to the Braves, might mean the front office is responsible.

Berselius rightly points out that it wasn't the front office that leaked the information, but the players. Carlos Marmol leaked it and so did Dempster. That being said, I am sympathetic to the arguments that Berselius may not be. I actually think it's a good thing these things have happened. It's not like other teams don't have players that leak information to the media, but what we've seen with the Cubs might indicate that they're constantly evaluating their options. This is much preferred to a front office that identifies a player it wants and moves in whatever direction needed to acquire him. Some deals are good. Some aren't. If a trade becomes undesirable, they should leave it on the table and move on.

I'm not really interested in further arguing that point at the moment. There's time for that later. For now, let's figure out what we know, think we know and what we don't know about what happened last night. If you'd like, you can say we'll talk about what we're sure about (facts), quite sure about (confirmed by enough sources that it is likely true) and what we don't know.

What we know

  • The Cubs are required by Major League Baseball to assemble a team for the 2013 season. Nobody can say that MLB doesn't have a sense of humor.
  • The Angels held a $15.5 million option for Dan Haren. If they declined that option, they were on the hook for the $3.5 million buyout.
  • Carlos Marmol is under contract through 2013 and will earn $9.8 million next year.
  • The Angels were trying to trade both Ervin Santana and Haren prior to the deadline to decide whether or not to exercise the options for each player (they traded Santana to the Royals).
  • The Angels ended up declining the option opting instead to pay the $3.5 million buyout.

What we think we know

  • The Cubs and Angels were discussing a trade involving Dan Haren.
  • Carlos Marmol believed he had been traded to the Angels for Haren.
  • The Cubs pulled out of the deal.

What we don't know

  • If any money was involved in the trade
  • Why the Cubs may have backed out

I'm sure I missed something, but I think that about covers it up. A lot of attention will be given to the final item. That's what I'm going to do. I obviously don't know why they did (that's why it's under "what we don't know), but there are a few possiblities more likely than others.

At the point the two teams were mostly in agreement, the Cubs would have been given access to Haren's medical records. It's entirely possible there was something there that led them to this decision. The best known example of this that I can think of is Angel Guzman. The Royals initially signed him as an amateur, but after a physical they found some sort of issue (defect?) in his right arm. They chose to terminate the contract and the Cubs signed him. Don't give me any of this "terrible decision" crap. It cost them nickels and the potential reward was huge.

Perhaps related to an injury, but probably not, maybe the Cubs just happened to see that he's been losing velocity and can barely hit 90 mph anymore.

That's not atypical, but just maybe it was enough to scare them off.

It's also possible the Cubs were wanting to sign Haren to an extension and learned that wouldn't be likely. Who knows? Maybe the Cubs really wanted to sign a guy to a longterm contract who can barely hit 90 mph. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs wanted to sign him to a 2 or 3 year extension, but anything longer than that was unlikely to begin with.

It seems to me the most likely reason the Cubs backed out is because they became confident they could sign him to a free agent contract. If the Cubs were relatively certain that the Angels would decline the option this makes a lot of sense. There's more than enough reason to think the Angels were going to do just that. They traded Santana for basically nothing. They were willing to do the same for the Cubs (sorry Marmol).

Had the Cubs traded for Haren, they'd be responsible for the $15.5 million he's owed. If he's a free agent, Haren won't earn as much money. If he was worth $15+ million, the Angels wouldn't be trading him for almost nothing. It's safe to say that no team in their right mind is going to value Haren at $15.5 million.

Not only can the Cubs save some money, they also get to keep Marmol. It's not like Marmol has much value, but he's another piece the Cubs can offer in another trade.

I'm sure some people think I've been too critical of the new front office, but here's one for you: I think the Cubs played this brilliantly. I think the Cubs were ready and willing to complete the trade if necessary. They'd worked out a trade and left it to the Angels to find a better one. If they couldn't, they'd come back to the Cubs and at least they'd end up with Marmol. However, seeing as they're now minutes away from the deadline to exercise or decline the option, the Cubs pulled out of the trade knowing he'd soon be a free agent.

It never made much sense to me why the Angels expected to trade either Haren or Santana. If they're going to decline the options, and all the available information said they would, why wouldn't a team just wait a few days and sign that player for less than what he'll be paid? They get to keep whatever they'd have included in the trade too.

I think the Cubs played this one about as best they could. They were willing to pull the trigger on a deal if they thought he'd be traded. Haren is still a good pitcher and one the Cubs would clearly like. They were in a position to acquire him having offered more for him than any other team. As long as they were still a possibility, the Angels wouldn't accept another trade without first seeing if the Cubs were ready to complete the trade. This gave the Cubs the opportunity to get Haren by trading them Marmol if they had to.

They went into this trade wanting Dan Haren to be a Cub and saw the clock ticking down at which point  something did not make sense: trading a player so you can pay someone more than he's worth. The Cubs became confident they could still get Haren without having to do that and backed out.

Obviously I don't know if that's what happened. Of all the possibilities, that makes the most sense to me.

Bimillenial Facepalm – 11.2.1

Cubs "losing" a bunch of players to free agency/waivers

Team MVP Shawn Camp was the only officially official free agent on the roster, but a few other players have opted for free agency after being kicked off the Cubs 40-man roster. Apparently they don't realize that "cut from the Cubs roster" is not going to be a net positive for them in future negotiations. 

So far, the team has "lost" the following players to free agency/other organizations

As Aisley pointed out, given Mather's -1.5 fWAR last year he's probably going to have to pay some team $15m to play for them next year (laughing)

Brenly Replacement Search Continues

Dan Plesac has joined Eric Karros as a candidate for the position. Please, no Plesac. I'm really hoping to hear that Doug Glanville is actually being considered, rather than just being wishcast by various fans. 

Thoyer Conference call with season ticket holders

Brett has a paraphrased transcript over at Bleacher Nation. Nothing too earth-shattering there. They admit that they inherited some really shitty pitching depth and mentioned that they're not planning to bullpen Arodys Vizcaino, which is great news. They also said they're not interested in doing any deals like the Cubs did with Carlos Pena that defers a huge chunk of money. But there's no real reason for them to do that right now anyway because they have so little payroll.

Javier Baez Update

Baez broke the tip of his left thumb, but it was a non-displaced fracture so it sounds like it's relatively not a big deal. It will end his AFL season, however. Logan Watkins was given his spot for the rest of the league's short season.

 

Cubs float a balloon about bringing back Ryan Dempster

In that same article, Carrie Muskat mentioned that Hoyer has been in contact with Dempster's agent. Hoyer was quick to down-play this, and said it was more of a "I bumped into him" kind of situation. Though it's hard to accidentally bump into someone when you pick up your phone and call them. Maybe he and Demp's agent were just discussing candlesticks as wedding gifts for a mutual friend of theirs.

Vague trade rumor of the moment

Bruce Levine mentioned last week that the salary-dumping Marlins have approached the Cubs about trading Josh Johnson. If (almost) all he costs is money, it's something I think that Thoyer would be interested in. He turns 29 in January, but has surprisingly little mileage on his arm. Of course, that's due to an injury or two…

The Cubs should strike while the iron is hot here, because if the Marlins secure the funds for a new ballpark they might keep Johnson and go on another spending spree.

(That's probably a top ten all-time Onion article)

Additional vague trade rumor of the moment

The Cubs are interested in Dan Haren, and according to Heyman they have been involved in "talks". The Angels have to decide today if they're going to pick up his option. I would be shocked if a deal gets done here though. The Angels don't have a ton of leverage.

Minor league coaching hires

The Cubs have hired Anthony Iapoce as the new minor league hitting coordinator. He was previously an instructor in the Blue Jays system, and a career minor leaguer with the Brewers and Marlins before that. The Cubs also grabbed Vandy pitching coach Derek Johnson as the new minor league pitching coordinator. Vandy went to the College World Series in 2011, and eight of their pitchers were drafted (two in the first round), and he also worked with David Price before he was drafted.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

Off-topic comments thread I recently enjoyed

There was much discussion of board and role-playing games in the comments yesterday, as well as arguments for and against plastic cutting boards. Needless to say, it's been our busiest day in weeks here at OV. The 2013 Cubs, everyone!

The Top 20 Cubs performances in a 2012 game

I was curious which players had the best games in 2012 for this shitty team we follow. I used Win Probability Added (WPA) from Baseball Reference to compile the list. There's no reason to write more of an introduction than that so here they are.

20. Travis Wood, .395 WPA

Despite Wood's up and down season, he ended up having an OK year and this is only the first of three times he'll appear on this list. In this game Wood threw 7 innings and didn't allow a run in a 6-1 Cubs victory over the Mets on June 25.

19. David DeJesus, .396 WPA

On September 8th the Cubs beat the Pirates 4-3 and DeJesus drove in the tying run in the 8th. He went 2-4 with a walk overall.

18. Travis Wood, .411 WPA

On July 1st the Cubs blanked the mighty Astros behind 7 scoreless innings from Wood. He walked noboby and struckout 4.

17. Anthony Rizzo, .413 WPA

The Pirates return to mediocrity or worse had already hit by the time September 16th rolled around, but hte Cubs came back from a 6-1 score to beat them 13-9. Rizzo was 3-5 with 6 RBI. He hit 2 home runs and a double. Surprisingly, this is the only appearance for him on this list.

16. Travis Wood, .425 WPA

Travis Wood's 2 best games cames agains the Astros. This one was on September 12th. He threw 7.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run as the Cubs won 5-1. Wood had the 5th, 6th and 7th highest single game WPA for a Cubs pitcher this past season.

15. Paul Maholm, .430 WPA

On May 9th Maholm bettered Tim Hudson as the Cubs beat the team he'd later play for. Maholm threw 7 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs. He walked 3 and struckout 3.

14. Alfonso Soriano, .432 WPA

Soriano hit a 2-run home run in the 6th inning to give the Cubs an 8-7 lead on May 28th. They'd win 11-7 and Soriano went 3-4.

13. Darwin Barney, .434 WPA

In one of the very few Cubs games that actually made me excited enough to care about Cubs baseball, Barney hit a game-tying 2-runhome run in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs against the Cardinals on September 21st. It had 2 of the better performances by a Cub this year. We'll get to the other one later.

12. Ryan Dempster, .445 WPA

I guess I haven't been keeping track because this seems like the first game on the list in which the Cubs lost. On May 3rd the Cubs took a 3-0 lead into the 9th inning behind Dempster's great start. Carlos Marmol didn't record an out before the score was tied and Rafael Dolis lost it in the 10th.

11. Alfonso Soriano, .448 WPA

Although Soriano was homerless in April, he did go 3-5 on April 24th. The final of those hits was a walk-off single in the 10th inning against the Cardinals.

10. Bryan LaHair, .449 WPA

Soriano's walk-off hit was made possible by LaHair's game-tying home run in the 9th inning. LaHair was 2-4 with a walk and a home run on the day.

9. Alfonso Soriano. .464 WPA

On June 8th against the Twins, Soriano hit a game-tying home run in the 8th inning. He went 3-5 on the day, but the Cubs lost in the 10th.

8. Ryan Dempster, .506 WPA

On Opening Day the Cubs hosted the Nationals and Dempster threw 7.2 innings, allowed only 2 hits, a run, walked 3 and struckout 10. The Cubs lost 2-1 and Stephen Strasburg who would later be shut down for good because the Nationals were liking their 2012 season too much.

7. Alfonso Soriano, .512 WPA

The Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 8-1 on July 13th thanks to Soriano's 4-4 day with 2 home runs. Not too surprisingly, Soriano appeared on this list more times than any other player though 7th was the highest.

6. Bryan LaHair, .522 WPA

In a June 7th loss in Milwaukee, LaHair hit a game-tying pinch hit home run in the 8th inning. The Cubs would lose 4-3 in the 10th.

5. David DeJesus, .532 WPA

In the game that Barney hit the game-tying home run in the 9th, DeJesus had the walk-off single scoring Brett Jackson in the 10th. DeJesus was 4-6 and had 1 RBI.

4. Darwin Barney, .545 WPA

Barney went 2-3 with a couple walks on May 30th when the Cubs beat the Padres 8-7. Starlin Castro tied the game in the 8th and Barney hit a walk-off home run in the 9th.

3. Jeff Samardzija, .600 WPA

Samardzija's 8 inning, 1 hit, 0 run, 1 BB and 5 K performance on July 23 in Pittsburgh was the single best performance by a Cubs pitcher all season. The teams combined for 6 hits and 2 runs, but the Cubs squeaked away with a win by having only 4 hits. One of the most boring games of the year had one of the best starts of the season. Funny how that works out.

2. David DeJesus, .627 WPA

The Cubs lost 8-7 in 13 innings to the Brewers, but DeJesus was 2-4 with 5 RBI. DeJesus didn't even start the game either. The Cubs trailed 1-0 in the 7th when DeJesus came to bat with the bases loaded. His grand slam gave the Cubs a big lead late in Milwaukee, but Cubs bullpen. Down 1 in the 9th, DeJesus tripled home Ian Stewart.

Joe Mather: better than Josh Vitters
1. Joe Mather, .755 WPA

If you can't laugh that Joe fucking Mather had the best game of any Cubs player all season, you have no sense of humor. One of the worst players in all of baseball in 2012 actually managed to have the best game of any Cub in their entire shitty season. I don't know about the rest of you, but that makes me laugh. I've been laughing about it since I decided to write this article. If yiou're wondering why he's here, he had a 2-run single in the bottom of the 9th against the Cardinals driving in the tying and winning runs with 2 outs in the game. Mather was 2-3 with a walk.

Season in Review: Jeff Samardzija

Now that Jeff Samardzija's season is over, let's take a moment to look back and express amazement that for about half the season Samardzija was the guy you most wanted to see on the mound for the Cubs. Well, assuming you weren't rooting for the Cubs reverse standings position. Here's his final numbers on the season.

 

Player GS IP H K BB HR BABIP ERA FIP xFIP fWAR bWAR
Shark 28 174.2 157 180 56 20 .296 3.81 3.55 3.38 3.4 1.8

 

This sure was a nice surprise for the Cubs this year.

Here's another Cubs pitcher we recently enjoyed who seemed to suddenly turn things around.

 

Player GS IP H K BB HR BABIP ERA FIP xFIP fWAR bWAR
Rich Hill (2007) 32 195 170 183 63 27 .271 3.92 4.32 4.00 3.1 3.2

 

I had remembered that Hill had a big problem with walks, but he was actually quite stingy with them across all levels as he shot up the minors. He walked 17 batters in 23 innings or so during his cup of coffee in 05, and posted a solid 3.53 BB/9 in 100 innings in 2007 but was most famous for shooting his mouth off after the Barret-Pierzynski fight. He followed that up with a 3.1 fWAR, 2.91 BB/9 season in 2007 after which the Cubs declared him to be one of The Untouchables. We all know what happened after that. He hurt his back, couldn't find the plate, and the rest was history (see also: 2011-2012 Randy Wells). Even if you believe in TRANSFORMATION, there's always the lurking fact that evolution did not select the throw 98 mph fastballs trait.

Samardzija has done a lot to improve his stock, but the projection systems have mixed opinions. Here is The Hardball Times's updated forecast ($) for the next five years for F7, as well as their final estimate of his current true talent level.

Year IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 WAR
current   4.43 8.4 4.2 1.1  
2013 137 4.47 8.5 4.1 1.1 0.2
2014 137 4.54 8.5 4.1 1.1 0.1
2015 145 4.55 8.6 4.0 1.1 0.1
2016 140 4.60 8.5 3.9 1.1 0.0
2017 141 4.67 8.4 3.8 1.2 -0.2

ZiPS is a much bigger believer in Samardzija, pegging his current true talent level at a 3.83 FIP. However, it has been suggested that ZiPS weights current season projections too heavily. I don't have a BP subscription so I don't know what Samardzija's updated PECOTA is, but it's certainly better than the ~5.5 FIP as a reliever that it had projected going into the season.

Not surprisingly, Samardzija is a weird guy to project. I'd be interested to see what player comps PECOTA spits out. It's pretty unusual to see a guy be a shitty reliever for several seasons, then suddenly turn into a credible starter. Another Cubs pitcher that was being thrown around as a comparison earlier in the year was Ryan Dempster, but that's only a cursory comparison. Dempster had past history of being a solid starter, was injured, and then had some success as a closer before being turned into a starter. Samardzija, on the other hand had been so terrible that he probably would have been non-tendered in the offseason if the Cubs actually had a rotation with a shot at pitching the Cubs into respectability.

One of the worries that has been expressed by some around here is that the Cubs will sign Samardzija to an extension. I'm one of the Samardzija Transformation believers, so I'm not too worried that the Cubs would get burned by the deal. At least, relative to signing a contract with any player. But I think that Thoyer will wait. What's the hurry? Samardzija is only reaching his first year of arbitration. He'll be a little more expensive than most first time arb elgibles due to the deal the Cubs had to give him to sign him away from football, but he won't be that expensive. They can take a wait and see approach, and if he's still kicking ass and taking names next year, then they can drop some money on him to keep him around. Given the Cubs current payroll constraints over the next few years, it's not like this is a situation where they really need to take on some risk to save enough money to sign the next Xavier Nady.

The Cubs will probably avoid losing 100 games

The Cubs currently sit at 58-89 even though 2 weeks ago it looked like a sure thing that they would lose 100. But after the Cubs have won 7 of their last 11 games it's now looking unlikely.

Baseball Prospectus has the Cubs going 6-9 over the rest of the season which would put them at a cool 64-98 on the season. That would be the worst record this team has had since 1980 when they were also 64-98. That's the only time in the divisional era of MLB in which the Cubs have lost that many games.

There have actually only been two seasons in which they've lost more than 98. The '62 and '66 teams each lost 103 games. Interestingly, the '62 team didn't even finish in last place in the National League. They finished in 9th. This year they won't finish in last even though it's one of the top 5 worst seasons in franchise history. They won't even be close to last.

If the season was called off right this moment, this team would finish having the 22nd worst season in franchise history. The Cubs have started a season 0-14 so maybe they can finish the season 0-14 at which point they would be tied with the two clubs in the 60s for the most franchise losses.

Baseball Reference is quite handy. You can sort the team's records any which you want and they include a column for the top player (player with the most rWAR). Horrible teams like the '66 Cubs don't often have an MVP type player, but Ron Santo's rWAR in 1966 was 8.7. That's the 17th highest single season total for a Cub in history. That team lost 103 games.

Thanks to Darwin Barney's absure +27 DRS, he currently has 4.7 rWAR. Starlin Castro is closest among the hitters at 2.7 so even if you adjusted Barney's defensive metric down to a more believable 10 or 12 runs saved, he would still have the most rWAR among Cubs position players. You could lower his DRS to +7 and he'd be tied with Castro at 2.7 rWAR.

If you include pitchers, Ryan Dempster had 3.5 rWAR with the Cubs and after him is Jeff Samardzija at 1.9.

This says nothing about Barney's ability to play because he is a good ballplayer, but when he's your most productive player you're probably not going to be contending, but at least they're not likely to lose 100 games anymore. They've got that going for them.

Cubs “shifting gears” because we have to

According to Paul Sullivan, the Cubs are going to shift gears with regards to what they're doing at 3rd base. You're not alone if that doesn't make any sense.

About 10 days ago this article was published on ESPN by Doug Padilla: Cubs' rebuild takes priority over hot hand

MILWAUKEE — The Chicago Cubs lineup Monday showed they are staying committed to their rebuilding project.

Despite the fact that Luis Valbuena was as hot as anybody during the just-concluded series at Cincinnati, rookie Josh Vitters was back in the lineup at third base for the series opener at Milwaukee.

Manager Dale Sveum could have simply reinserted the left-handed hitting Valbuena into the order since the Brewers had right-hander Mark Rogers on the mound, but decided against it.

“Valbuena got hot again and was really swinging the bat but my priority is still going to be getting Vitters quite a few at-bats,” Sveum said.

Since that article the Cubs have played 8 games. Josh Vitters has started 4 of them and Valbuena the other 4. What's particularly odd is that Sveum said his job was to get Vitters more at-bats and two days later he opted not to. And now 10 days later it appears they're going to "shift gears" and primarily play Luis fucking Valbuena over Vitters.

I was probably among the few after Vitters' call up that didn't mind he wasn't playing every day. The Cubs determined that he'd benefit more from being at the big league level than sticking around at the minor league level and that's good enough for me. I did assume Vitters would eventually get more playing time, but instead of that, he's getting less.

Here's what's being said today.

"I'll still mix and match," Cubs manager Dale Sveum said Thursday. "You might see Valbuena in there a little bit more. We're just giving Vitters some time to kick back here now and see what happens. You're trying to evaluate, but you're trying to win ballgames at the same time. We're having trouble scoring runs, period, so the at-bats — Valbuena is getting on base, he's swinging the bat well, playing good defense."

Sveum admitted it's a change from earlier.

"I have shifted gears a little that way, because we're not getting anything out of that position," Sveum said. "A guy who hasn't struck out much is striking out quite a bit and not making contact. We're just going to evaluate and keep plugging along to determine what do we have and moving forward and evaluating these guys in situations that hopefully they're going to succeed."

We can't just blame Dale Sveum for doing this. Sveum isn't doing anything without Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein's approval. What Sveum is doing is endorsed by the front office. This in itself is not all that surprising.

Even though Josh Vitters was going to be at AAA Iowa this year, the Cubs went out and took a chance on Ian Stewart who had multiple years of club control. The Cubs wanted to acquire a 3rd basemen at the trade deadline. They were looking for one who was more highly thought of than Christian Villanueva who the Cubs acqured from the Rangers along with Kyle Hendricks for Ryan Dempster.

The Cubs have had no problem getting rid of some of Jim Hendr's top picks. In the Ian Stewart trade, they shipped former 1st rounder Tyler Colvin to Colorado. They flipped Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo. Hayden Simpson was playing for the US team in the Little League World Series.

Josh Vitters wasn't especially good at baseball prior to this season and in all likelihood still isn't very good. I have no idea what his numbers are to this point, but he's looked overmatched by big league pitching. Since Vitters is again relegated to the bench it's likely we'll not see Vitters as the 3rd basemen when the season begins. After all, Theo has gone on record many times saying that you can't learn much from spring training statistics. It's entirely possible the scouts rave about a transformed Vitters in the way they did with Jeff Samardzija, but two transformations would break baseball.

It will be interesting to see what the Cubs do this offseason at 3rd base. I had been assuming that Ian Stewart had played his final game as a Cub, but I'm not so sure now.

New Cub Christian Villanueva

The main piece aquired in the Ryan Dempster trade was 21 year old Christian Villanueva. Villanueva was signed as an international free agent out of Mexico by the Rangers in 2008 and just recently turned 21. He's played the entire season in High A. 

His first season in the US was in 2010 in the AZL. Over 210 plate appearances he hit .314/.365/.431. That was good for a .370 wOBA and 127 wRC+. He didn't show much power and hit just 2 home runs. His ISO was .117. He's only 5'11, 160 so he's not going to hit for a lot of power, but he has started to hit for some power.

Promoted to A ball in 2011 he continued to hit the ball well. Over 529 PA he hit .278/.338/.465. His wOBA was .365 and wRC+ was 122. He hit 17 home runs and posted a .186 ISO. 

Following the increased power, Baseball America ranked him 9th in the Rangers organization and 100th among all prospects. Their scouting report entered the season said this:

Scouting Report:  Villanueva has a short, compact swing with a balanced load and good bat control. He has an advanced approach at the plate, though he can get pull-happy at times. There are mixed opinions on his power, as he presently has line-drive sock but some scouts see at least average potential. He doesn't project as a basestealer, but he has sneaky quickness and instincts that allowed him to swipe 32 bases last year. Villanueva is equally as impressive at third base as Mike Olt. A plus defender, Villanueva has soft hands and easy actions. Despite average speed, he has a solid range thanks to his first-step quickness and instincts. He has above-average arm with good carry and accuracy. 

The Future:  Scouts compare Villanueva with countryman Vinny Castilla. With Adrian Beltre in Texas and Olt ahead of him in the system, Villanueva spent time during instructional league at second base, where there would be reduced pressure on his bat. He'll play in high Class A in 2012.

With the exception of his defense, he doesn't stand out in any one area. He's a solid hitter and has some power and some speed. He definitely has the glove to make up for whatever offensive deficiencies he may have. His walk rate is one area to watch. It's down below 6% this year after being a mediocre 7% last year. However, he does make up for what might be a lack of patience by getting hit by a shitload of pitches. He was hit 12 times last season and he's already been hit 20 times this year. It's led to his OBP being a 70 points higher than average, which is good. 

After the trade, BA wrote this about Villanueva:

The Rangers are loaded at third base with Adrian Beltre in the majors and stud prospect Mike Olt in the minors, which made the well-regarded Villanueva expendable. Signed out of Mexico, he ranked No. 100 on our Top 100 Prospects list entering the season. Villanueva has a broad base of tools that include a solid bat, potential average power, fringe to average speed with good instincts on the bases and standout defense with soft hands and a strong arm at third base. He's just 21 and in high Class A, so he still needs time to develop. He'll have to tighten his strike zone, and some scouts question if he'll grow into enough power to be a big league regular at third base.

Josh Vitters is really the only Cubs 3B prospect that's anywhere close to being ready so this is a nice addition. As far as I know, there's been no word on where any of the prospects the Cubs acquired will be sent, but I haven't spent a great deal of time looking around for that either. 

You can check out this nice article about Villanueva over at Fangraphs too. 

New Cub Kyle Hendricks

Minutes before the deadline yesterday the Cubs matched up with the Rangers for the second time in less than 24 hours as they traded Ryan Dempster. In the trade the Cubs acquired Kyle Hendricks and Christian Villanueva. MILB.com lists the 22 year old right handed Hendricks at 6'3", 190 lbs. He's been described as the throw-in, but he has very impressive numbers.

Hendricks wasn't highly thought of in high school or in college. He was undrafted out of high school and went to Dartmouth. An econ major at an Ivy League school, perhaps he'll advice the Ricketts family on why they should pay for the renovation to Wrigley themselves, but I won't hold my breath. He ended up being selected near the bottom of the 2011 draft (39th round), but took to professional ball with ease. 

Other than 1 appearance and 3 innings at AA Frisco last season, he spent the rest of the season in A ball. In 35.2 total innings last year, he allowed just 24 hits, walked only 6 and struckout 38. His ERA was 2.02 and his FIP even better at around 1.5. 

The strikeouts were misleading. Hendricks is not a strikeout pitcher. He sits in the 87 to 89 mph range and can get it up into the very low 90s on occasion. Since he was a college pitcher and those numbers were in A ball they had to be taken with a grain of salt, but he's been equally impressive at the higher level (High A) this season. Baseball America mentioned recently that he had made a couple changes entering this season.

Since then, he’s made two changes and he’s again one of the best performers in his league, having spent the entire season with high Class A Myrtle Beach in the Carolina League.

“I changed my mechanics a little bit at the very beginning of the year, trying to get more directional and trying to get everything going towards home plate,” Hendricks said. “And then other than that, I’ve been working with the pitching coach just on pitch sequences, learning the hitters and just watching and learning from the swings they take on certain pitches so that I can make adjustments on the mound as you go and really thinking while you’re out there instead of just throwing.”

He also added a cutter and in his first full season as a professional he's continued to get impressive results. He's struckout fewer this year, which is no surprise considering the lack of velocity, but the guy throws a ton of strikes. His K/BB ratio in 130.2 innings this year is a ridiculous 112/15. He has hit 6 batters, but still, that's just 112/21. You know how many times over the years I've wanted to have a pitcher with that kind of control on the mound? He's struckout nearly 22% of the batters this year, which is actually pretty good and walked under 3%. 

Through his first 166 innings as a professional you have to be happy. He might run into trouble in the higher minors when his strikeout rate drops. A lot of analysts seem to think that's likely. His strikeout rate will drop, but I'm thinking if the guy can walk 3% of the batters he faces he's going to reach the big leagues in some capacity. Time will tell if it's a starter or a reliever, but right now he's pitching well. You figure out what to do later on if the results start getting too bad. 

Baseball America wrote this about the Dempster trade yesterday.

Hendricks has had a fine season with Myrtle Beach, as detailed in a recent BA Prospects Blog post. He throws an upper-80s two-seam fastball, a four-seamer that bumps 92 mph and mid-80s cutter to go with a curveball, slider and changeup. None of the pitches grades as plus, but he has feel for his craft and for the strike zone. He ranked second in the Carolina League in ERA, WHIP and innings as well as third in strikeouts, while leading the league in walk ratio (1.0 per nine innings). At a listed 6-foot-2, 165 pounds, he has room to get bigger and stronger.

I mentioned earlier that he was listed by milb.com at 6'3", 190, but Baseball Reference does list him the same as they point out there. Fangraphs also lists him at 6'3", 190. 

We'll look at the centerpiece of this trade tomorrow. 

Theo on Dempster

Theo talked about Ryan Dempster a bit today.

"Ryan never got the opportunity for more than an hour to fully contemplate Atlanta with a deal actually in place," Epstein said. "I feel for him. Instead of having time to contemplate it privately, he had everyone telling him what to do and asking questions about it. I think it's hard to criticize him."

"He didn't say 'no' — he said, 'not now,'" Epstein said. "He said, 'No, I'm not going to go to Atlanta until I see about L.A.' Atlanta very reasonably didn't want to wait around and risk not getting a pitcher. He had a place he wanted to go, and a clear No. 1, which is his right, and he wanted to see that through and I don't hold that against him."

"It's not fair for anyone to criticize Ryan unless they've been in that spot," Epstein said. "It's a right he's earned. Do we wish he would've had 12 places that were an ideal destination for him instead of one? Sure. That Atlanta deal that we had lined up, I felt was an outstanding deal for the organization. Would we have liked to have executed it? Absolutely."

"Once he came into our office and actually heard the conversations we had with L.A., he came to realize, 'OK, that's not actually going to happen, let me consider a couple other places,' and the deal got done with about three minutes left," Epstein said.

"If someone really wants to go to a place, you can tell them over and over again that it's probably not going to happen, but unless they're convinced of that, they may not want to move on to their second choice," Epstein said.

"I know it started to be characterized in the media as contentious, and it wasn't at all," Epstein said. "Had we made that trade with Atlanta, we don't get [Arodys] Vizcaino for Maholm and Johnson. Everything worked out in the end."