Tag: ryan dempster

A few things that don’t make sense

Carl Crawford and a prospect to the Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell is something that Bob NIghtengale is suggesting is in the works that doesn't make the least bit of sense. Carl Crawford, a truckload of money and all the Red Sox prospects for Hanley Ramirez makes sense, but other than that this is just ridiculous.

I've read several times over the past few days that the Cubs really really want to trade Ryan Dempster so that they can focus on trading Matt Garza. This sounds as absurd as the Crawford/Hanley trade proposal. Can the Cubs not chew gum and spit at the same time? They have to trade one to work on trading another. It's like a check list? One down. Now we can move on and talk about another player. Can't talk trade about more than one player at a time. What the fuck? Obviously this is bullshit, but why do people keep saying this? 

The Kansas City Royals inquired about Matt Garza. Obviously the Royals were told that the Cubs had to first trade Ryan Dempster before they could talk Garza trade. No, seriously, why the hell would the Royals want Matt Garza? 

This ad in the local paper doesn't seem right. 

 

Red Sox aggressively pursuing Ryan Dempster

I was thinking that Ryan Dempster would probably not be traded, but with as many as 10 teams interested I'm thinking the odds of him being dealt are increasing. I'm also thinking the odds of the Cubs acquiring a better package than he's probably worth is going up as well. 

I plan to look at these teams and what the Cubs may be looking to get in return either later tonight or tomorrow morning. I may update this post or create a new one. 

Why Matt Garza’s trade value is lower than I think

Earlier today I wrote why Matt Garza's trade value may be higher than I think, or rather higher than the trade value numbers show. Since I wrote about why they may be higher it only makes sense to also spell out why they may be lower. I'm going to do the same thing for Ryan Dempster tomorrow, but some of that is written here already (why he's worth more). 

While Matt Garza threw 133 innings for the Twins in 2006 and 2007, he didn't have his first full season until he was traded to the Rays in 2008. Since then, his FIPs have been 4.14, 4.17, 4.42, 2.95, 4.16. These are  a lot alike with the exception of his first season in Chicago.

It's certainly more valuable than his best season was more recent, but one might look at these numbers and be tempted to throw out 2011. I would never encourage anyone to do this. The numbers happened and they matter. They tell us something, but it's easy to see how some team may look at the years 2008 through 2012 and see that he's been about a 4.2 FIP pitcher with the exception of one season (2011 when he was damn good). 

Fangraphs bases its WAR on FIP and his fWAR has been (since 2008) 2.9, 3.1, 1.6, 5.0, 1.2. He's essentially on pace for about a 2.5 fWAR season if he reaches his ZiPS projection the rest of the way. Not surprising since it's based on FIP, these numbers are all relatively similar with the exception of one season.

He has a 108 career ERA+. That's only 8% better than the league. His ERA+ since 2008 has been 119, 110, 100, 116, 99. Since 2008 his ERA+ is 109. For comparison, Ryan Dempster's is 118. Dempster has had 2 full seasons (2008 and 2009) in which his ERA+ was higher than Garza's best season. Dempster's this year is likely to be higher than any of Garza's best.

Garza has 13.8 fWAR since 2008. Dempster has 18.4. 

Baseball Reference uses runs allowed to calculate WAR. They factor in fielding by using the team defense and then assigning that to each pitcher based on his innings pitched. Garza's rWAR since 2008 has been 3.1, 3.3, 1.3, 2.5, and .5 this year. When you get away from the fielding independent stats, his WAR last season wasn't even the highest in his career. Looking at it this way makes two seasons stand out (2010 and 2012). The others have been close to the same while those two years have been quite a bit worse. 

He has 10.4 rWAR since 2008. Dempster has 15.8. 

Since 2008 Baseball Prospectus has Matt Garza being worth 7.6 WARP while Dempster has been worth 13.1 WARP. 

Ryan Dempster has been a better pitcher over the last 5 years. It's not really even that close and it doesn't matter which value stat you look at. Dempster has only a few months left on his contract and someone wouldn't be crazy to expect acquiring Dempster to be a better trade than one for Garza. Dempster could probably be had for a little less, but maybe not. 

If people believe Matt Garza is worth a whole lot, why do people think Ryan Dempster is going to be worth a lot less? Just because Garza has one year at approximately $12 million in salary left? I don't know. Garza isn't as good as a lot of people think and there's definitely reason to believe he may be worth less in a trade than the numbers show. 

I wouldn't bet on that. I also wouldn't bet on him being worth more.

Brewers and Phillies prepare offers to keep Greinke and Hamels

The Brewers are willing to offer Zack Greinke around $100 million over 5 years while the Phillies are prepared to offer Cole Hamels an equally large contract extension. Greinke and Hamels were likely going to be the two best starters available at the deadline if their respective teams made them available.

My first thought was that this was potentially good news for the Cubs who figure to be active on the trade front in the coming weeks. If Greinke and Hamels are off the market, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster might become more appealing.

My second thought was that both teams had explored a trade and didn't like what teams were willing to give up. This could be bad news for the Cubs who hope to better their farm system through the trades they'll make this month.

My next thought was that this was just posturing by the teams. That seems to be the least likely of all I thought about. It would not look good for either team to leak info about long term contracts because if they weren't sincere it probably would piss off the player. However, it's a distinct possibility.

It was easy enough for me to figure out which seemed the most unlikely, but I'm not sure which is the most likely. Let's talk about the other two in more detail.

This could be good news for the Cubs if both were taken off the market. That was my initial thought, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. Dempster and Garza may be the best two pitchers available at that point, but that doesn't mean teams are going to give up more to acquire them. Imagine that Ryan Theriot is the best player available in a trade. Do we really think teams are going to give up a lot to acquire someone like that? It might help the Cubs in that there are fewer arms to acquire, but it also may make teams more content to stand pat knowing their competitors won't get all that much better. 

If both the Brewers and Phillies had briefly explored trade options for Greinke and Hamels and found no acceptable offers, this is obviously bad news for the Cubs. They would be unlikely to find what they currently consider an acceptable offer for Garza or Dempster. If either are traded they would more than likely be acquiring less talent in return than they'd hoped. This doesn't mean it's less talent than we've projected they'll receive. It just means it would be less talent than they were expecting. 

Both of these seem plausible. It might make guys like Dempster and Garza more appealing though I'm not convinced it means they'll bring more in return. It might also mean the Cubs can expect less than they were intiially expecting. There's still the off chance that this is just posturing though that seems highly unlikely to me. 

What do you guys think? 

Rumor: Dodgers interested in Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza

According to Jon Heyman the Dodgers are the most likely destination for Ryan Dempster and the Dodgers might also be interested in Matt Garza. 

 

The Dodgers are talking to the Cubs about acquiring either one of their two coveted starting pitchers, Ryan Dempster or Matt Garza, sources say.

The Dodgers have long been known to be targeting Dempster and are seen as a favorite for him. But it turns out they've had conversations about Garza, as well.

About a month ago we looked at Dempster's trade value. We found he didn't have a lot of trade value (less than a million bucks). It didn't matter if he was traded that day, July 1st or closer to the deadline. He makes quite a bit of money and right now has a higher projected FIP than he did at the time. He's owed $6 million the rest of the way and if the Cubs want a decent prospect in return they'll send most or all of that $6 million. Doing so would give them a surplus trade value of around $6 million for Dempster. It's a lot lower than some fans think, but many of those same fans were back to calling him Dumpster last season. 

The situation is the much the same for Garza. The Cubs would have to send most of the money he's owed this season to get much back. 

Money isn't really a big deal for the Cubs so they won't hesitate to send money in a deal to better their return. 

Let the Piling On Starlin Commence in Three… Two… One…

Shit is about to come down on Starlin Castro, and it shouldn't be shocking to anyone that the source of the impending storm is located in a Paul Sullivan piece in the Tribune.  Whether he is trying to stir the pot purposefully is a matter of opinion, but whether he is doing it intentionally or not, this pot is getting stirred as we speak.

Starlin Castro headed to the All-Star Game on a positive note Sunday with a pair of hits, including a three-run home run. 

Well, that's a nice lede. It looks like this will be a really positive blurb about a solid performance from our 22 year-old star shortstop. Nice first half, Starlin.

Asked if he has seen any growth in Castro, Ryan Dempster cracked: "Obviously he's not turning around and looking in the outfield when pitches are going this year. That's always a good step."

HA HA HA HA HA! Yes! That's a good one, Ryan! Let's present the beat writer who thinks the job title is called that because they are supposed to beat dead horses with a dead horse to beat! You're hysterical!

Actually, I should just be thankful Dempster probably didn't say it in his Harry Caray voice and I'm sure he was just joking around, because, you know, that's what Ryan Dempster does because he's hilarious.

Dempster was joking about the game last year when Castro had his back to the plate during one of James Russell's pitches.

Thank you for the context so the two people reading this who didn't already know this tidbit can get caught up. So far, what started as a positive little piece about Starlin is getting dark kind of fast.

"Kidding aside, he's making huge strides," Dempster said. "His ability to read the plays, to know when a pitcher is going inside, turning double plays he's been unbelievable, his range has been great. … When you're the shortstop, you're the leader of the defense, and he's really taken over."

OK, now that we're getting serious and Ryan says some very nice things about his teammate and how he has been maturing. His teammates must be recognizing some positive changes in Starlin as he's growing into his role as a team leader.

Castro knows he's one of the game's elite shortstops, and said he wants to make an annual trip to the Midsummer Classic.

Now this is getting to be too much. He's improving his game and maturity PLUS he has aspirations to be an All-Star type of player every year? This is turning into a puff piece! Better dial it back!

"You see the commercials — it's not a break," he said with a grin. "I want to go to the All-Star Game every year. I've got time to be in my house in October to rest. But now, I don't need it."

Oh. Shit. Now we have a shortstop who seems to be conceding he won't be playing in October very often. That will get people pretty riled up. I'm sure Paul will follow that up with an explanation or some context (like he did with the Dempster quote for no reason) so that we can understand that he was probably just talking about this October. Because, let's face it, the Cubs aren't playing baseball this October and anybody who thinks that is a possibility needs to have their head examined, so what's the problem with Starlin admitting that in a human moment?

Paul? Anything? Can you provide some context?

No? You're just going to leave that quote hanging out there for the masses to assign their own meaning?

Ok, then. The beatings will now begin!

Dale Sveum’s First Half MVPs: Shawn Camp and James Russell

NEW YORK — Who's your first half Most Valuable Player for the Cubs? Manager Dale Sveum picked relievers Shawn Camp and James Russell.

Camp was 2-4 with a 2.86 ERA and one save, while Russell was 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA entering Sunday. Russell had a 2.30 ERA in 101 games since the start of 2011, the second-lowest mark by a National League left-hander.

"Those guys have been phenomenal in the first half," Sveum said. "Without those two guys, we would've been in a lot of trouble. The combination of both of them has been tremendous. They've been consistent all season long. To have the numbers they have, and handle a position they've been put in [that they aren’t used to] speaks volumes for what they've done for this team this year." — cubs.com

Both players have been worth .3 fWAR while Russell has been worth .6 rWAR and Camp has been worth .7 rWAR. They've each had good seasons, but it annoys me when a manager picks a reliever as the team's MVP. I know the Cubs suck, but it's not the least bit true that one of these two is the team's MVP. The two of them combined are not the MVP either. 

I'm not sure what team Sveum is watching, but WITH those two guys in they're in a lot of trouble. With everyone on their roster they're in a lot of trouble. 

Here are the players on the Cubs who have a higher fWAR this season: Alfonso Soriano (2.1), Starlin Castro (1.9), Ryan Dempster (1.9), Jeff Samardzija (1.8),  Bryan LaHair (1.2), Darwin Barney (1.2), Matt Garza (.9), Paul Maholm (.7), Anthony Rizzo (.7), Reed Johnson (.5), Tony Campana (.5), David DeJesus (.4).

And here are the guys who have a higher rWAR: Darwin Barney (3.6), Starlin Castro (2.8), Ryan Dempster (2.3), Travis Wood (1.2), Anthony Rizzo (.9), Alfonso Soriano (.9), Tony Campana (.8), Bryan LaHair (.8).

I don't think there's much doubt that the MVPs of this team have been Starlin Castro and Ryan Dempster. 

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (29-49) @ Atlanta Braves (41-37)

The red hot Chicago Cubs travel to Atlanta fresh off sweeping the super-talented Houston Astros. The Braves lost 2 of 3 to the Nationals over the weekend. 

Teams at a glance

Stat Cubs Braves
wOBA .297 .317
wRC+ 80 (16) 98 (5)
UZR 2.5 (6) 35.7 (1)
BsR 1.2 (7) 6.0 (2)
SP ERA 4.32 (15) 4.22 (12)
SP FIP 4.05 (11) 4.35 (14)
RP ERA 4.48 (11) 3.73 (8)
RP FIP 4.66 (16) 3.75 (7)

After the dominating pitching the Braves had in the 90s I still can't get used to them having a starting rotation that isn't all that good. They're pretty bad as starters, about league average in relief, but they do make up for it with an excellent defense and one of the best baserunning teams in the NL. The Cubs have improved considerably on the bases on their defensive metrics indicate they've also improved there too. The starters have been horrible and the relievers just as bad. The offense too. Other than that they're kicking ass.

Injuries

Lendy Castillo is on the Rule 5 Draft DL. There's probably nothing wrong with him, but he's not good enough to pitch at the big league level so they put him on the DL. I can't help but think that this is detrimental to a player's future. I think MLB needs to do something about rule 5 picks so that this doesn't happen in the future. Perhaps there is something wrong with Castillo, but this seems to happen to all rule 5 picks who suck and most of them do. The player's should have negotiated this into the CBA because this seems rather deplorable to me. Not the Cubs. They're just doing what every team does. I'm talking about what these teams do. It's a system that's broken and could be easily fixed.

Marcos Mateo and Ian Stewart are out for the rest of the season. Blake Parker probably is, as well. Ryan Dempster is out with a lat injury and is expected back after the all-star break. A couple bad starts from him and he may be untradeable prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Who would have guessed that after his incredible start? It happens. Especially to the Cubs.

Brandon Beachy, Peter Moylan and Arodys Vizcaino are out for the season. Robert Fish was placed on the 15 day DL back on April 2nd, retroactive to March 26th, and has yet to appear in a game this season. 

Who's hot and who's not?

Everybody on the Cubs is hot. Nobody on the Braves is. 

Monday, 6:10: Jeff Samardzija (5.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 3.64 xFIP) vs. Tommy Hanson (3.59 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.41 xFIP)

Samardzija had a very rough June. To give you an idea just how rough it was, batters slugged .570 against him. Small samples don't tell us a whole lot, but that's getting hit hard. It's really hard to figure out what to make of Samardzija. One one hand he's had 5 out of his 15 starts in which he's allowed 5 or more runs. If this was Carlos Zambrano the fans would be going ape shit crazy wondering why he can't keep the Cubs in a ballgame even though Z's rate of 5 or more was nowhere near 33%. On the other hand he's been damn good in his other starts. To this point anyway, you seem to get a really start from Samardzija or the offense has little to no chance to even make it close. His peripherals are still solid though that walk rate has been inching up for awhile now. Did he show improved control over 70 to 80 innings or has he really improved his control? If he has improved it there's no reason he can't be a solid back of the rotation starter. If he hasn't, it's not going to work out. 

Hanson's ERA is in line with what he's done the last couple years, but his FIP is way higher. He's struckout fewer batters this year, walked more, allowed a higher BABIP and allowed more home runs per fly ball. He's stranded 82.2% of the runners keeping his ERA low, but he really hasn't pitched like a 3.5 ERA pitcher has. At least not yet.

Tuesday, 6:10: Chris Volstad (7.46 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.65 xFIP) vs. Jair Jurrjens (6.07 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 6.01 xFIP)

Volstad is back to make his first start since being demoted to Iowa where he wasn't really that impressive. He posted an ERA of 4.44 though his FIP was about 3.6. ZiPS projects him to be a 4.57 FIP pitcher going forward. 

After getting rocked to start the season Jurrjens spent the next two months on the DL. In two starts since returning he's 13.1 innings, allowed 9 hits and 3 runs, struckout 4 and walked 4. Neither pitcher on Tuesday strikes many out, but neither walk a lot of guys either. 

Wednesday, 6:10: Paul Maholm (4.84 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.42 xFIP) vs. Randall Delgado (4.52 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.14 xFIP)

I had so much fun filling in for Berselius that I'm going to cut this preview short. 

Series Preview: Boston Red Sox (31-32) at Chicago Cubs (21-42)

Wait, the Red Sox have a losing record? That was a surprise to me. Pythagoras disagrees with their record, as they have a +26 run differential, second in the AL east and 4th in the whole AL. If their non-winning trend continues they might have to watch out for some sleeper cell cultists. Luckily the Red Sox are playing the Cubs and not one of their much more formidable AL East foes.

Team Overviews

Respective league ranks in parentheses

  Sox Cubs
wOBA .331 (3rd) .298 (14th)
UBR -0.9 (11th) 3.4 (3rd)
UZR 13.8 (4th) 3.8 (7th)
DRS +35 (2nd) +1 (4th)
SP FIP 4.43 (10th) 4.00 (11th)
RP FIP 3.74 (8th) 4.74 (16th)

Aside from injuries, it looks like the Red Sox main problem this year has been starting pitching. Their top three pitchers have pitched well but have significant ERA-FIP splits, and the back end of their rotation (Buchholz, Bard) has been a mess, to be putting it lightly. The Cubs maintain their lead for the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Toronto is 0.2 points back, and they're far ahead of everyone else.

Injuries

It's been a while since we did a injury status roundup for the Cubs, so here it is

  • Ian Stewart hit the DL due to more problems with his wrist. They're talking like he might have nerve damage, which I would guess means surgery and thus no more Stewart this season. He's a good bet to be nontendered in the offseason. I still like the trade though. Stewart still had a lot more upside than Tyler Colvin.
  • Geovany Soto is rehabbing from his knee surgery and could be back next week. He's playing for the I-Cubs and the team wants him to get a few full 9 inning outings behind the plate before they bring him up.
  • Lendy Castillo has been out for a month with a "groin strain". I have heard zero news since then, it sounds like they have him in the top secret Rule 5 Rehab Center.
  • Blake Parker and Marcos Mateo are done-zo for the year with elbow problems
  • Alfonso Soriano *should* be on the DL, as he's had knee problems for the past month and has a hard time stopping while running. His bat is doing just fine though.

The Red Sox have had injury problems of their own, especially in the outfield

  • Kevin Youkilis is day to day with a sore ribcage, and is expected to have limited availability in this series.
  • Berselius vendetta target Carl Crawford has been out the whole season due to wrist surgery in March. He just started a throwing program and the Red Sox hope he'll be back after the all-star break.
  • CF Jacoby Ellsbury dislocated his shoulder in mid-April, and is on the 60-day DL. He's rehabbing in Florida right now and could be back before the all-star break. It's too bad the notoriously lazy Aramis Ramirez isn't the gritty youngster that Ellsbury is. He took 8 long weeks to return from his shoulder seperation. If Ellsbury took that long he wouldn't have been back until….today.
  • CF Jason Repko managed to emulate Ellsbury by separating his other shoulder only a week later
  • Marlon Byrd was brought in to stop the bleeding, and he posted better numbers than he did in Chicago, but still was awful enough that they had to DFA him anyway.
  • OF Cody Ross broke his foot in mid-May, and could make his way back next week
  • SP John Lackey is out for the year with TJS. This is probably an addition by subtraction situation though, considering how awful he was last year.
  • Theo compensation RP Chris Carpenter is out indefinitely with elbow surgery
  • Former A's closer Andrew Bailey had thumb surgery and hit the 60-day DL to start the season. He could be back around the all-star break
  • Former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks had multiple back surgeries this offseason and might be done with baseball. The Red Sox are supposedly trying to buy out his contract.
  • Former Cub Rich Hill made seventeen appearances before hitting the DL again. He could be back in July
  • Former Cub Mark Prior is pitching well in Pawtucket and could get a call-up soon.

Position players

David Ortiz has been the main force in the offense, posting a .405 wOBA in 265 PAs, good for 19.1 wRAA. It looked like he might be on the decline a few years back but he got right back to where he was earlier in his career. Here are his yearly wOBAs since joining the Red Sox in 2003 – .400, .408, .418, .427, .448, .372, .340, .380, .405, .405. The dude can hit. Luckily without the DH the Cubs might not see much of him this series. Or maybe we'll get to see his statue impresion at 1b, especially with Youkilis ailing. The biggest negative contributers to the offense are the glove-focused SS Mike Aviles and surprisingly Kevin Youkilis, who has posted only a .293 wOBA this year. Marlon Byrd had the largest negative effect on the offense, posting -5.1 wRAA in his relatively brief time with the team.

Aviles has been the best baserunner on the team, and not surprisingly Ortiz has been the biggest negative on the basepaths. Without Ellsbury, this hasn't been a particularly SB happy team. No one is in double digits.

Adrian Gonzalez is the best rated defender on the team, but he's been spending a lot of time in RF lately so that's mostly gone. Pedroia is a good defender, and some of the no-bat guys the Red Sox have filling in for their injured outfield can at least play defense.

Pitching Matchups

ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP listed for each pitcher

Not surprisingly both weekend games were picked up for national broadcast, but I'll be stuck watching the Rangers obliterate the Astros on Saturday.

Friday: Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP (4.24) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.31, 3.27, 3.56, 3.92), 1:20 PM CT

I just listed Matsuzaka's projected FIP since he's only made one start. It seems like he's been injured forever, but he did manage to make eight starts last year before getting TJS in June. He's been making rehab appearances in the minors since April, and while he managed to keep his walks down (his main problem in the majors) he gave up a ton of HRs. He had a decent debut against the Nationals last week, striking out eight but allowing four runs in five innings, and only walking one batter.

Could this be Dempster's last start? Given the lack of news around this team that's all the beat writers have been focusing on. After the breathlessly reported conversation that Theo and Dempster had in the stands a few days back there was a lot of speculation. It was defused the next day by claims that they were just talking about charity events, but later reports said they certainly did talk trade scenarios. Dempster was originally going to start on Saturday but they flipped him and Samardzija to give F7 and extra day of rest, which they said they were going to to with F7 all season. If they trade Dempster, the sooner the better both because he has more value now (more starts to give) and because some other pitchers on expiring deals (Hamels, Greinke) might hit the market in the next few weeks. I still think the Cubs are better off keeping him around and trying to get the picks, but they should definitely shop him.

Saturday: Jon Lester, LHP (4.57, 3.66, 3.82, 3.66) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.96, 3.09, 3.39, 4.11), 6:15 PM CT (FOX)

The ERA-FIP splits on these Red Sox starters is especially baffiling when you consider how good their defense is. Lester hasn't been too unlucky BABIP-wise – he has a .316 BABIP but is a ground ball pitcher. His strand rate sits at a Volstad-esque 64.6%, so maybe he's also having trouble in the stretch. He's also had problems striking batters out this year. He has 6.92 K/9 following three seasons where he averaged more than strikeout per inning. According to Fangraphs's pitch values, a big difference could be that he lost the handle on his cutter. Early in his career it was his best pitch, this year it looks like it's his worst. He's been throwing a lot less of it, accordingly.

Samardzija was hammered in his last start, giving up eight runs in 3.2 innings to the Twins. I wasn't too surprised, as he had made comments before the game that he was going to pitch to contact because of the dimensions of the park or something. Listen, Jeff, if something ain't broke don't fix it. Just do what you've been doing in every other start. It's safe to say that seems to be working. Hopefully he learned that lesson.

Sunday: Josh Beckett, RHP (4.14, 3.78, 3.89, 3.92) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (4.91, 4.76, 4.41, 4.21), 7:00 PM CT

I thought the Tigers would be all over Paul Maholm but he pitcher very well, striking out seven in six innings and allowing two runs. The bullpen promptly blew the lead for him but the suddenly Jaramillo-less Cubs offense managed to come back with a booming display of scoring on two conscutive errors by the Tigers SS. His outing pushed his ERA and FIP below 5 for the first time this season, so he's got that going for him.

Beckett has always been stingy with walks, but has been especially so this year. But like Lester he's also seen a significant drop in his strikeout rate, going from averaging ~8.3 the past few seasons to 6.5 K/9 this year. I'm also extra confused by the chicken and beer complaints with him last year, because his final ERA and FIP were 2.89 and 3.57, respectively. I guess he must have just pitched poorly down the stretch. Or maybe he's a system SP, ala Tom Brady (laughing). Never change, Boston sports fans.

How much is Ryan Dempster's Trade Value?

Ryan Dempster entered the 2012 season in the final year of his contract. He was coming off season in which his ERA had ballooned to 4.80, but his FIP and xFIP were in line with what he'd done as a starter since 2008. His FIP was 3.91 and he had an xFIP of 3.70. The projections had him at a 3.92 FIP this year. The WAR projection was 2.4.

Berselius did using FIP and Fangraphs uses it to calculate WAR and so far this year he's been worth 1.7. Unlike last year, his ERA is significantly lower than his 3.26 FIP. He currently has the 4th best ERA in baseball, but he's not nearly that high in the FIP rankings. Still, Dempster has had a very good season, but it's been viewed as better than it really is thanks to the shiny ERA.

Dempster has apparently said he's willing to accept a trade so it's likely one will happen. There will be several interested teams, but he's making quite a bit of money and is owed $3 million in deferred money. I think we can assume the Cubs are on the hook for that no matter what so Dempster's salary this season is $14 million and that's what we want to focus on when trying to figure out his trade value.

There are 3 rest of season projections available: Oliver (The Hardball Times), ZiPS (available on Fangraphs), and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). Below is a table that averages the 3 projections.

From this point forward they're projecting 114 innings, a 4.00 ERA and a 3.82 FIP. I also included July 1st and August 1st as starting points to give us an idea of what his value may be depending on when he is traded. Currently we're expecting 1.7 additional WAR. That actually seems high to me. Oliver and PECOTA provide WAR projections, but ZiPS does not. Oliver gives Dempster 0.6 the rest of the way while PECOTA has him at 1.5. So keep that in mind. The 1.7 is a high estimate. Realistically it's probably closer to 1.2 or so, but you can see how that affects the trade value.

Even at 1.7 the rest of the year Dempster's surplus trade value is only $0.3 million. It's the same if he's traded in a couple weeks and only $0.2 million if he's traded at the end of July. So even if you estimate high you find he essentially has no trade value. This doesn't mean the Cubs won't get anything in return.

They could and probably will send the majority of the money he's owed to the team trading for him. Assuming this, if they traded him right now and sent $8.2 million they'd get back $8.5 million in value. In a couple weeks they'd get back $7.3 million and if they wait until the deadline only $4.8 million in return.

These farm system values were in 2009 so we should add some inflation, but it gives you an idea what the Cubs may be looking at for the return in a Dempster trade. I'll paste the most relevant information below:

Top 10 hitting prospects $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters $12.5
Top 10 pitching prospects $15.2
Top 11-25 pitchers $15.9
Top 26-50 pitchers $15.9
Top 51-75 pitchers $12.1
Top 76-100 pitchers $9.8
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels) $7.3
Grade B hitters $5.5
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $2.1
Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.5

The bolded red line is the maximum that we should expect the Cubs to get in return if they traded Dempster today. That's using the high WAR estimate so realistically it's probably closer to the Grade B pitcher or hitter. if they wait until the deadline the Cubs may be looking at only a grade C pitcher or a couple grade C hitters.

The Cubs farm system isn't going to improve much while trading Dempster. He's off to a great start, but it appears a lot better than it really is because his ERA is flashing in front of our eyes during every broadcast.