Tag: ryan flaherty

Cubs 5, Diamondbacks 7 (4/24/14)

Did The Cubs Win?

OSS: Cubs celebrate 100 years of Wrigley Field in fitting fashion.

Three Up

1. Jeff Samardzija was brilliant (again). He deserved to win (again). He didn’t win (again).

2. Hector Rondon has to be the best Rule 5 pick of the past 5 years, right? A short reflection of the past Rule 5 drafts:

2013: too early to tell.

2012: Rondon is a legitimate back-end reliever. Josh Fields is a relief janitor for the Astros. Ryan Pressly didn’t break 2014 with the Twins, though he was serviceable last year.

2011: Ryan Flaherty and Marwin Gonzalez were both stolen from the Cubs, they both stuck, and they are both decent 25th men on the roster.

2010: Brad Emaus! For only having 42 forgettable PAs in one year for the Mets, I sure do remember him for no reason. No one else of note.

2009: No one of note.

2008: Donnie Veal took equal turns being ineffective, barely effective, and hurt. However, Everth Cabrera is the clear winner here. I’d rather have Everth Cabrera in 2008 than Hector Rondon now.

Anyways, I liked Rondon when we took him last year. The dream of a rotational presence is over (the slider never developed past “change-of-pace”), but Rondon still throws a 95.5 mph fastball that touches 97 in spurts. His huge problem last year was walks; he figured that out late in the season, and ever since, he’s been the Cubs’ best reliever. He’ll close games before the year is through.

3. I’m going with Darwin Barney. He only went 0-1 with a walk, but he had a really nice squeeze that ended up with him on first via a poor throw (incorrectly charged as an error to Goldschmidt – it should have been on Miley). He made one bad defensive play early on that eventually led to the first run of the game, but he made up for it and more with 3 web gems in the game.

Three Down

1. Starlin Castro‘s bobble gave the Diamondbacks 4 outs. If he makes that play, the Cubs win 5-2 or 5-3. He also went 0-4 and struck out 3 times. The relievers didn’t bail him out, but you can more-or-less put this game at Castro’s feet.

2. Pedro Strop has pretty much relinquished his chance at being the closer. He had very spotty control yesterday, especially of his breaking pitches. He missed badly early on in the inning, which led to him getting squeezed later.

3. James Russell marches onward towards his ignominious release. He’s a LNOGY at this point.

Quick Hits

Where the fuck was Sammy Sosa yesterday? He’s done for the Cubs than any current member of the franchise, and that’s including Ricketts and Epstein. I get that he left in poor circumstances, but suck it up and mend the fences. It’s pretty fucking petty not to have Sammy out there. He was never my favorite Cub (for some reason, I was always on Team Grace. That…didn’t work out. That guy is a piece of shit), but I still always loved him. He’s the best Cub of my lifetime.

The whole ceremony seemed a little off to me. I liked seeing all the Cubs HOF, but it was sad to see Ernie Banks so frail. He looked a little lost out there to me. The balloons were cool, but not that cool, and it was awesome that the wind blew them away immediately. I’m not sure what it was like at the stadium, but you absolutely could not hear the crowd singing “Happy Birthday” in the 5th inning, so that was pretty awkward. Lastly, the Diamondbacks are literally the most recent team in baseball. Couldn’t the Cubs have played the Reds? Too much to ask?

Anthony Rizzo is a joy to watch play these days. He swings at so few bad pitches now. He also has more walks (13) than strikeouts (12). That won’t stick, but Rizzo is quickly making his contract look like a steal.

Next Game

Today, 2:20 CT, Edwin Jackson vs. Mike Bolsinger

Will the Cubs Win?

 

 

 

ALDS series preview: Orioles vs. Yankees

Did anyone think the Orioles would be in the playoffs? Did anyone think the O's might actually pull off the AL East division win? Well, they're in the playoffs and they very nearly won the AL East. The O's essentially replaced the Red Sox so the AL East still had 3 very good teams as it has for the last several years. How good are they? I don't really know. They're better than they're pre-season projections, but not as good as they played this year. That's about all I've got.

Can they beat Yankees? You bet. These aren't the same Yankees we're used to seeing every season. In 2011 Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner each had more than 5 fWAR. CC Sabathia did too. Granderson and Sabathia each had 7.1 fWAR. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez each chipped in 4.3 fWAR.

This year, Robinson Cano's 7.9 fWAR makes him a stronger MVP candidate than Miguel Cabrera. He was also the only position player on the Yankees who had more than 4.0 fWAR. Sabthia led the pitchers with 4.8. In 2011 the Yankees had an impressive 4 players with more than 5 fWAR and 2 of them were over 7. Only Cano topped 7 this year and nobody else topped 5.

This year's team had only 5 players who had 3 or more fWAR. Future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter had a very solid season at this age as he added 3.2 and Nick Swisher had 4.0. Hiroki Kuroda had 3.9 and only he and Sabathia produced more than 1.9 fWAR.

So this isn't the same type of team we've seen the Yankees play in October with year after year. They're older and not as good as they once were. Still, they have some fantastic talent that I really enjoy watching. Robinson Cano is one of my favorite players in the game. Sabathia is a workhorse and he's a good one. Ichiro is now a Yankee so that makes it even better. I even like Jeter. I miss Mariano Rivera and while the Yankees didn't actually miss him that much this season thanks to Rafael Soriano, replacing his post-season success will be a very difficult task. 9th inning leads in the past weren't anything to fret over. That won't be the case this offseason.

For the Orioles, Adam Jones was worth a team best 4.6 fWAR. Jones is what Felix Pie could have been if things worked out for him. A low walk guy with some pop. This year though, Jones hit for a lot of power, still didn't walk much and even despite a below average UZR was damn productive. Matt Wieters was next with 4.1 fWAR though he only had a 106 wRC+. JJ Hardy's 77 wRC+ managed 2.8 fWAR thanks to more than 10 UZR. Chris Davis (2.1) was the only other position player with more than 2 fWAR. Only Jason Hammel (2.9 in 116 innings) and Wei-Yin Chen (2.2) had more than 2 fWAR among Orioles pitchers.

Storylines you may or may not care about

Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter.

The Orioles are actually in the playoffs. No joke.

Brad Pitt is not the GM of either of these teams.

Projected Lineups

Orioles

Yankees

Rotations

Yankees: CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes

Orioles: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez (nothing else announced)

Statistics

  • wRC+: Yankees 113 (1st), Orioles 95 (11th)
  • FIP- (SP): Yankees 98 (4th), Orioles 106 (7th)
  • FIP- (RP): Yankees 85 (4th), Orioles 86 (5th)
  • UZR: Yankees -10.8 (10th), Tigers -26.5 (12th)
  • DRS: Orioles -13 (11th), Yankees -22 (12th)
  • BsR: Yankees -0.3 (8th), Orioles -4.4 (11th)

Using Oliver, SG has calculates the Yankees have a 55-60% chance of winning the 5-game series. That's about what I'd think. I think the Yakees have the advantage in this series, but I just don't know how much of one.

Worst Moves of the Epstein Era

Since opening day is here (well, not here, but somewhere), it seems like an appropriate time to catalog the numerous failures of the Cubs under The Epstein Regime. Sure, no actual games have been played, but it’s never too early to make like mb and don your three wolves tee and start excoriating optimistic chumps. After all, future blogging historians will surely one day glorify the prescient among us who sagely pointed to the moment when the plane diverted its course towards the mountain. What’s that? …Well, sure. Most people don’t care, but there must be a core few that tirelessly track the forecasts of anonymous internet users… Nobody, you say?  Yeah, but still.

By way of reassuring readers regarding my temperament, none of these moves have put me into a full Ted Lilly-, Carlos Zambrano-, or H.L. Mencken-type fury. And objectively, these moves range probably range from “practically meaningless” to “that definitely only bothers you.” Nonetheless, annoying.

10. The bunting contest. How about a home run derby? When did that become out of the question?

9. Moving Samardzija to the rotation. Not likely to end well (and I needed ten of these).

8. The rise of the Regulartron. Yes, there is undoubtedly some money to be made here. But color me completely unconvinced that it outweighs the brand value of that time machine on the North Side. And nothing drives me crazier than the constant blather of these things.

7. Leaving WGN. Hasn’t happened yet, obviously. I am among those out-of-staters dreading paying for MLB Extra Innings because the Cubs left the sole remaining national affiliate in favor of a glorified SportsChannel/FoxsportsChicago/CSN. If they can work out a deal with the new NBC network or find another way around the regional restrictions, I will promptly redact, but there is a lot of downside here among casual fans in particular.

6. Trading Zambrano. Yeah, I know, the veterans were tired of him and that was the last straw and all the rest. But couldn’t we turn the page on The Hendry Era by getting rid of someone like oh, say:

5. Reed Johnson. No? OK, fine.

4. Caving on Theo’s compensation. I’m sure that some folks are completely enamored with Kurcz and Carpenter, but I’m not one of them. However, Bud was obviously reticent to step in here, due to the future consequences of his decision. Why not call his bluff? We know that Theo put on his lawyer pants and drew up a pretty good case, complete with the glaring absence of any precedent. What’s the worst that could happen? Losing “uberprospect” Josh Vitters? It would have been worth it on the off-chance that Bud decided to tell Lucchino and Co.: “You will take Michael Brenly and like it.”

3. Ryan Flaherty. There’s no space on the 40-man for a 25 year-old lefty-hitting middle infielder with some pop? Did all of Koyie Hill’s detached appendages require their own spot?

2. Sitting out free agency. A wise man once said, “The bottom line is you can’t go out and buy young players, there is no opportunity to do that anymore.” So, what exactly is the plan? It’s nice to say that the organization needs to rebuild from the ground up, but what does that really mean in practice? Developing homegrown talent takes years, especially if your current minor leaguers more or less stink, and your only hypothetical advantage is scouting and developing marginally better than everyone else. Sure, free agents are expensive. Thing is, they are likely to get more expensive as their supply dwindles due to teams increasingly coercing young talent to sign long-term deals. It’s not like the Cubs were reluctant to spend money this offseason, as they seem to have offered in the neighborhood of $100 million dollars for three Cubans (allegedly), a McDonalds, and a vocational high school in the Dominican Republic. It would have been nice to sign a few vets likely to still be contributors if and when the young talent starts coming up, instead of the Maholms and DeJesuses of the world.

1. Failure to put a specialized strategist on the bench. As far as I can tell, “smart” front offices around the majors swooned over Dale Sveum for his tendency to pore over spray charts. That’s all well and good, but is it so out of the question to put someone on the bench who is actually numerate? It’s not like no one has ever considered the effects of various individual strategies on seasonal basis. There would still be plenty of room for leader-of-men types that inspire confidence by instigating bean-ball wars. Theo and Co. had the capital to really take a chance here, and instead they went traditional with Sveum et al.; the bench remains sacrosanct and decidedly quant-free. What we did get was a voluminous manual full of corporate speak, to be read and digested by a group of functional illiterates. The Cubs Way indeed.

Who do the Cubs trade for Theo Epstein?

The Cubs hired Theo Epstein 4 months ago and it was about that time that we were told the two sides were on the 5-yard line regarding compensation. I can only assume that Ken O'Keefe is running the offense. Every week we're told that Bud Selig will resolve the compensation issue soon. Each week goes by without a resolution. Recently the Boston media has wondered if Reed Johnson and Jeff Baker might be the start of compensation.

I'll admit that I have no freaking clue who they end getting, but there are certain rules regarding transactions. That's what this is. You can call it compensation, but it's a trade. For Andrew Cashner, the Padres sent the Cubs Anthony Rizzo as compensation. Same thing. For example:

Florida Marlins traded RHP Jhan Marinez and SS Osvaldo Martinez to Chicago White Sox and Bristol White Sox traded RHP Ricardo Andres to Greensboro Grasshoppers.

That's the official transaction listed on the Miami Marlins website on September 29th when they traded those two players for Ozzie Guillen. It's quite clearly a trade.

Because of this, there are a few things to consider. First, players who are drafted cannot be traded until one year after they signed their contract. This eliminates all of the 2011 Cubs draft picks. Second, teams cannot trade a recently signed free agent until June 15th. This is why there are no sign and trades in baseball. Draft picks aren't signed and then traded and free agents aren't either. It's not allowed. A player could theoretically approve a trade as far as I know. At least with regards to free agents. It's entirely possible Reed Johnson could approve a trade to the Red Sox, but why would he?

He chose to sign with the Cubs because he likes Chicago. He could have chosen to sign with the Red Sox this offseason, but didn't. I see no reason to think he'd be willing to accept a trade.

In the article by Nick Cafardo linked earlier in the post he wonders if Anthony Rizzo might be in play. You've got to be kidding me. He's a top 100 prospect. The Marlins didn't get close to a top 100 prospect in return for Guillen and there was a possibility of tampering charges being filed. I actually find it hard to believe that a player on the 40-man roster would be traded to the Red Sox for this. I can't imagine Bud Selig deciding it's fair to send a rostered player to Boston when the Cubs could have used that roster spot to protect someone else earlier on. Someone like Ryan Flaherty. He absolutely would have been protected if Josh Vitters wasn't on the 40-man roster.

But who knows? Bud Selig is an idiot so I don't have any idea. He could give the Red Sox Matt Garza and Starlin Castro and it wouldn't even surprise me. I'd shrug my shoulders and say to myself, Bud being Bud.

When the media told us 4 months ago the Cubs were on the 5-yard line it would have been helpful to know that they were on their own 5-yard line, both teams had infinite timeouts and the Cubs had the ball for eternity.

2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 3

Wreckard took a look at how the 2007 Cubs improved compared to the 2006 team and what kind of improvements this current team would need to make for next year. In the first part of this series. we took a look at payroll and named several players the Cubs should keep if they plan to contend next season. The second part focused on Aramis Ramirez‘s club option and whether they should retain him, as well as taking a look at two in-house platoon candidates to replace him. We also listed the players by position that make sense to be a part of next year’s team if they were to try and contend. In this one we’re going to find out how good that team would be.

To start with, you need to understand that at this point there’s not as much information available to get accurate projections like we will have access to after the season. I’m using ZiPS rest of season projections for wOBA for hitters and FIP for pitchers. I’ve included my own playing time estimates and for Ryan Flaherty, I’ve estimated his projected wOBA vs right handers to be .310. It may in fact be higher, but that’s good enough for now. For defense, I’ve used what I think the player is worth so you may disagree, but it’s not going to make much difference overall. We’re trying to get a ballpark figure for how much the Cubs need to improve this offseason to contend next year. That’s all.

Hitter Pos PA wOBA WAR
Geovany Soto CA 550 .349 3.7
Darwin Barney 2B 550 .300 1.0
Starlin Castro SS 600 .329 2.3
Ryan Flaherty 3B 400 .310 0.8
Jeff Baker 3B 200 .350 1.2
Alfonso Soriano LF 550 .329 0.4
Marlon Byrd CF 550 .338 2.8

If you recall, we came up with 2.3 WAR for Ramirez next season. Flaherty and Baker combine for 2 WAR. The Cubs save $11 million or more by letting Ramirez walk and lose only .3 WAR. The numbers for Baker, for what it’s worth, are vs lefties, which is really all he should be facing anyway. Even if the two combined for just replacement level next year, they still save the $11 million while losing $11 million in value (2.3 WAR). As long as they’re above replacement level, which is likely, it makes sense to go with the platoon over Ramirez. We need a 1st baseman and a right fielder. Below are the pitchers.

Pitcher IP FIP WAR
Matt Garza 200 3.60 3.5
Carlos Zambrano 190 3.74 3.0
Ryan Dempster 200 3.56 3.6
Randy Wells 175 4.03 2.1
Carlos Marmol 75 2.91 2.4
Sean Marshall 75 2.82 1.9
Andrew Cashner 60 4.35 -0.1

If you’re wondering how Ryan Dempster could still be projected as highly as he is, it’s because his 5.00 ERA has been rather unlucky to say the least. His FIP is 3.70, but his xFIP is 3.37 and his SIERA is 3.44. After a BABIP over the last 3 years of roughly .295, it’s balloned to .331 this season. His LD% is actually the same as it was in 2008 when his BABIP was .280. He left about 73% of the runners on base the last 3 years, but only 67% this season. 

It’s actually quite remarkable that Dempster has been allowed to stick in the rotation. Only 10 qualified starting pitchers have an ERA worse than he does and in year’s past, Lou would have yanked such a pitcher from the rotation long ago. Mike Quade has, on occasion, been critical of Dempster, but he’s left him in the rotation. That’s a pleasant surprise based on the actions by this organization in the past.

This roster, plus league minimum guys to fill it out, as well as the rest of the 40-man, would make about $100 million. The Cubs current payroll is $135 million. This roster would be projected to win about 77 games (28.5 WAR plus 48.6 replacement level wins). We haven’t factored in age yet.

We could probably take about 2 wins away if we factor in age and I gave all the starters a ful season’s worth of playing time so let’s knock off another 2 for injuries/ineffectiveness. 73 wins. That’s where the Cubs are starting with the roster above. In the next part we’ll look at available players and how much they’d add to this roster. 

Continue reading “2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 3”

2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 2

In part 1 we found that there were currently 13 players on the Cubs roster that the Cubs want to keep assuming they try to contend next year, which they will. We left off talking briefly about Aramis Ramirez and the club option the Cubs hold for $16 million (or a $2 million buyout). Using Ramirez’s .354 rest of season ZiPS and 550 plate appearances, I get about 2.7 WAR for Ramirez. We must adjust that for age and it comes down to about 2.3 WAR. The value of the win next season is estimated to be about $4.8 million. That makes him worth $11 million next season. 

That’s $3 milion more than the Cubs would have to pay if they kept him (the $2 million buyout is guaranteed). If there aren’t any other options, then Ramirez may be worth it, but it seems a good position to use as a platoon for next season. Jeff Baker kills lefties. He has a career .387 wOBA vs lefties and it’s nearly 100 points lower vs righties. We’d have to regress both numbers to get a reasonable projection, but I don’t see any reason he can’t post a .350 wOBA vs lefties next season. What about his platoon partner?

With the exception of 84 AA plate appearances in 2010 and 33 plate appearances so far at AAA, Ryan Flaherty has been a very good hitter in the minor leagues. I can only find his splits data for the current team (Iowa Cubs) and since it’s only 33 PA it’s useless, but word is that he’s a very good hitter against righties. Since we know little about him, let’s just say a league average wOBA for him against the right-handed pitchers. I’d be surprised if it isn’t higher, but whatever. 

Flaherty would get about 400 PA while Baker would get 200. We end up with a wOBA around .335 or so between the two. I didn’t include defense or baserunning in Ramirez’s projection, which would of course lower it so I won’t do it here either. Needless to say, it’s difficult to believe that these two wouldn’t be better fielders and better baserunners than Ramirez. In the end, they’re probably not quite as valuable, but the total amount paid, including the buyout for Ramirez, would be $5 million or less. That’s a savings of $11 million and they probably haven’t gotten much worse. They can use that $11 million to buy additional wins elsewhere. In fact, they could buy about 2 and a half wins. 

Now that we have 14 players on our roster, we need to organize them by position.

C: Geovany Soto
1B:
2B: Darwin Barney
3B: Ryan Flaherty, Jeff Baker
SS: Starlin Castro
Util If: 
LF: Alfonso Soriano
CF: Marlon Byrd
RF:
OF: 
SP: Matt Garza
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: Ryan Dempster
SP: Randy Wells
SP:
CL: Carlos Marmol
SU: Sean Marshall
RP: Andrew Cashner
RP: LM1, LM2, LM3, LM4 

The last four relievers are league minimum guys bringing the roster to 18 and leaving holes at 1st, RF, 4th OF, and SP, as well as a backup catcher, middle infielder and the so-called 5th outfielder. None of the backup spots do we really want to spend much money on so we’ll use league minimum guys for those 3 spots. 

Next time we have to figure out how good or bad these players make a team and what kind of additions the Cubs need to contend. It may turn out that we have to pay Soriano a shitload of money just to free up a spot where we can add a much better ballplayer. That may be the only way this team can contend, though it makes it less likely we can do so while only increasing payroll a small amount in 2012. Before that, let’s figure out how much these players are going to be paid.

The players currently under contract or arbitration eligible will be paid roughly $93 million. Adding in league minimum guys and the 40-man roster, you’re right around $100 million. That’s a rough estimation of how much the players listed above will be paid next year. This year’s payroll is $135 million so we have plenty of flexibility here. Before we look at free agents or trade possibilities we need to figure out how good this team is and we’ll do that next time. 

Continue reading “2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 2”

2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 1

As much as I’ve written about the need to rebuild, it’s not going ot happen. The Cubs have some decent players on their roster and some you’d really like to get rid of. Since they’re planning on contending, we have to first figure out which of the current players on the roster are worth keeping around. To do that, we also have to keep in mind the payroll limitations so we’ll start with payroll. (click the link below to continue reading)

Continue reading “2012 NL Central Champion Cubs, part 1”

Bruce Levine’s 5 most likely to be traded, yo

Happy Breaking Bad Day … bitch!

After xoomwaffle posted this link to Levine’s article earlier today I started writing something and then lost interest about a half sentence in. That’s been happening a lot lately. I started writing something yesterday and lost interest about 3 paragraphs in. A few days ago I began writing something where I was comparing Starlin Castro to similar players his age since 1901. After a few paragraphs I saved it and haven’t gotten around to it. Thanks to Aisle 424 this site has still been regularly updated.

I have a serious problem when it comes to writing about the Cubs anymore. I stopped paying attention the Cubs in 2010 about the middle of May. I watched a few games here and there, but mostly just because I didn’t have anything else to do. I’d never had less interest in the Cubs in my life. Even when they had really shitty teams I’d still watch almost all their games. There were reasons to watch.

Those shitty teams had greats like Bruce Sutter. My first memories of watching the Cubs are from the 1979 and 1980 seasons. There have been many other greats along the way to watch. I wish I had seen the eary part of Rick Reuschel’s career, but I remember him being my favorite player in the early 80s. There was also Lee Smith. There was of course Ryne Sandberg and later Greg Maddux. In 1992 the Cubs had a young Sammy Sosa while also having Ryne Sandberg, Greg Maddux and even Mark Grace. I was never a big Grace fan, but there’s no denying that he was a very good ballplayer.

Then they had Sosa and Kerry Wood in the late 90s, early 2000s. Mark Prior came along. Carlos Zambrano did too. The Cubs have always had a star player for as long as I’ve been a fan. Even before I was a fan they had star players and were still a bad tea. The point is that there was always a reason to watch the Cubs. That changed a few years ago.

As great as the 2008 season was, it was the first season I remember when the Cubs didn’t have a star quality player on their roster. They had several very good players and that was the most enjoyable Cubs season in my life, but Zambrano had passed his prime already. Geovany Soto was young and had a huge season. Zambrano has only deteriorated, Soriano is a shell of his former self and Geovany Soto’s promising start was never fully realized.

Starlin Castro came long last season and certainly his future is bright, but he’s not a star. He’s fun to watch and has been the only reason to watch this horrible franchise play a game they are inept at over the last couple seasons. To give you an idea how bad that is, Castro has been slightly worse than average at the plate and is terrible on defense. A guy who has essentially been a league average player by one type of WAR and well below average by another type has been the only reason to watch this team.

That’s what this team has become. Along with the star players, my interest in how this team performs is gone. I do hope they can put together some kind of plan to become a better franchise, but I actually don’t care either way. This franchise has rarely been one worth watching because of the overall product on the field. What they sold to us was that we could watch a star or two play on a regular basis. That’s gone. None are coming up through the farm system either. There are a few players who might make decent complimentary ballplayers, but none are stars. Sure, I’ll enjoy watching Brett Jackson or even Ryan Flaherty play for awhile, but their skills aren’t going to overwhelm anyone so they’ll fit right in with the rest of this team.

There’s no doubt that Cubs fans want the team to be better in just about every way possible, but there’s also little doubt in my mind that Cubs fans actually give a shit one way or the other. I know I don’t. I find it very hard to believe that someone who actually cares that much would root for this team. So there has to be something else to entertain us. There has to be something that draws us in and gives us a reason to watch. Based on attendance and what I’m sure are very low ratings on tv compared to recent years, people just don’t give a shit about this team.

The one thing I am somewhat interested in is who the Cubs may trade and who they may get in return, which finally brings me back to the point of this article.  In recent days we’ve heard everyone from Jeff Baker to Tony Campana were untouchable. I’m joking about the last one and don’t actually care about the Cubs having no interest in trading Baker. It seems kind of silly to say you’re not going to, but the reality is that Baker is likely more valuable to the Cubs now and in the next few years than he is in a trade.

Levine names Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd and John Grabow as the 5 most likely to be traded.

Levine clarifies Ramirez’s contract and says there is no clause that makes 2012 guaranteed. He’s paid $1 million if traded. Ramirez has previous said he had no interest in being traded, but it’s always hard for me to believe that an MLB player would decline a trade to a contender. Ramirez is owed enough money this season that the Cubs return would likely be very little.

The same is true with Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Pena. John Grabow is owed about $2 million the rest of the way so I figure if the Cubs trade him they’ll have to send $38.5 million along with Grabow and get a 29 year old prospect in Low A who throws a 139 mph fastball, but throws strikes less frequently than Carlos Marmol does.

Marlon Byrd does have some value so the Cubs could get something decent in return for him, but they’re not going to get a top prospect or anything. The reality with the Cubs roster is that they really don’t have anyone who would bring much in a trade other than Matt Garza, Sean Marshall and Starlin Castro.

I know Levine didn’t include Kerry Wood, but I think there’s a decent chance he’s traded in the next few weeks. It would certainly be nice if the Cubs could trade guys like Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano, but that’s not happening. As much as the Cubs would like to get rid of each and their contract, they aren’t going to find a team that wants either player unless the Cubs send a shitload of money in any deal.

The Cubs are what they are. They’re an old team with overpaid players who have underproduced and have little to no value to any other team. The few good players they do have are guys you’d like to have on your roster if you have any intention of contending in the near future, which I’m sure the Cubs think they can. They are retarded so I’m sure they believe they’ll win 108 games next season. To make things worse, they don’t have much talent in the minor leagues. Without spending a lot of money in the near future the Cubs are going to remain at the bottom of the worst division in baseball.

It’s a way of life.

Continue reading “Bruce Levine’s 5 most likely to be traded, yo”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4

Over the last week we’ve looked at the top 20 Cubs prospects according to John Sickels and how they’re performing this season. We’ve also looked at 15 or 16 additional players worthy of some discussion for one reason or another. Many of the 2010 draft picks, especially the high school ones, have very little playing time to their name. Few of the 2011 draft picks have any playing time and less than 20 of the 50 have been signed.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may been wrong. The farm system does appear to be in better shape than I had thought.

The Cubs top prospect, Brett Jackson, is having another great season. Strikeouts are an issue, but he’s getting on base, which is what he’s going to be asked to do at the big league level as he’ll almost certainly be the leadoff hitter. Jackson has needed little to no time to adjust to new levels throughout his professional career and has shown the potential of being a very productive player.

Trey McNutt, the highest ranked pitching prospect entering the season, has suffered some injuries, but none of them arm-related. It hard to figure out too much when looking at his stats when you consider the blister problems as well as the performance after coming back from a collision. He’s not even thrown 50 innings yet.

Ryan Flaherty is hitting the ball exceptionally well. DJ LeMahieu has even done the same and was promoted to the big leagues to sit on the bench for awhile. Robert Whitenack emerged early this season as the breakout performer in the organization only to have his season cut short with elbow surgery.

Jeffrey Beliveau has continued to improve his control while also striking out a ton of batters. He’s very difficult to hit and even righties have struggled against him. He looks like a late-inning reliever for sure. Chris Rusin is in AAA now and has the best control in the organization. He’s not a top of the rotation starter, but if he continues to progress, he could provide some value at the backend of the rotation. Nicholas Struck is only 21 years old and already in AAA. He has more potential than Rusin and considering his age for the levels he’s played in, it’s difficult to estimate his true talent level going forward, but he’s more than held his own against older competition.

Austin Kirk has been ridiculously tough to hit and Matt Szczur has hit everything he’s seen. It seems clear the organization is in a better position than I initially thought.

While there are still no impact players, the system does have a number of players who could contribute some value in the near future.

I hadn’t intended to write this part in the series, but a few thoughts came to mind as I was writing these last three parts and I thought I’d share them. Anyone who has been around here or read my stuff knows that I haven’t thought too highly of the Cubs farm system this season. I felt that way entering the season, but prior to the season I was a bit more optimistic than I had been. After looking over the performances thoroughly I think I may have been too kind previously. The farm system appears to be in worse shape than I had thought.

Brett Jackson’s strikeouts haven’t held him back thus far, but he’s going to have BABIP his way to a decent batting average at the big league level. He’ll walk plenty so his OBP will still be solid, but it could easily be league average or worse. He’s going to strikeout more at the big league level than he has so far, which is not a good sign. He’ll also walk less, have less power, his defense will be worse and there’s already discussion about whether or not he can remain in CF. A leadoff hitter, which is what the Cubs have him pegged as, who doesn’t get on base at an above average rate would be terrible for any offense. If he has to move to a corner, much of his value is gone. There are a lot of question marks with Jackson.

Trey McNutt has had a number of blister issues and a collision that has kept his inning total to less than 50 and those 50 have been unimpressive to just plain bad. His strikeouts declined after his late-season promotion last year and they’ve continued to decline even further. His current strikeout rate leaves one little reason to hope he’ll be anything more than a bullpen arm and maybe not even a good one at that. We already saw what a big decline in strikeouts did to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA.

While Ryan Flaherty continues to hit, he also continues to be passed over for other players like DJ LeMahieu. He’s without a position having played less than half his games at 2nd base. He’s old for his level and the only time he’s been challenged was at the beginning of the 2010 season and he failed miserably.

Beliveau has excellent strikeout numbers and a good walk rate. He’ll more than likely provide value to the Cubs in the future, but they already have Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall at the backend of their bullpen. Beliveau’s value will be limited. At 21, Nicholas Struck is already at AAA, but at 5-11, 185, endurance becomes an issue. Beyond that, he’s allowed nearly a hit per inning and struckout only 7.1 per 9. Solid numbers overall, but not a top of the rotation or even a middle of the rotation pitcher in the future.

Robert Whitenack emerged early as this season’s breakout pitcher, which kind of says enough as it is. Anyway, after his fantastic start, he went down with a torn elbow ligament and will miss a year. Chris Rusin has been solid, but again, he’s a backend of the rotation starter and that’s if he progresses as one would expect.

Matt Szczur has little to no power, but makes a lot of contact. He has decent on-base skills, but even if he progressed as one would expect, he’s no impact player and he’s years away from making any impact anyway.

Alberto Cabrera, ranked 10th by Sickels, has been bad. Number 9 prospect Austin Reed has given up more than a hit per inning at Boise. Number 8 prospect Robinson Lopez strikes out less than 6.5 per 9. Josh Vitters, ranked 7th, hasn’t got a chance in hell of being a Major League player. At number 5 is Hayden Simpson. After getting rocked at Peoria, he’s getting rocked in Rookie League. Jay Jackson was number 4. Enough said. Christopher Carpenter was number 3 and he’s now a reliever so yawn. We already talked about Trey McNutt and Brett Jackson.

Marquez Smith is number 11 and nobody even wanted him in the Rule 5 Draft. DJ LeMahieu is 12th. No power whatsoever. On-base skills are lacking. At 13th was Rafael Dolis and he’s now a reliever and only Ok considering he’s been at AA for awhile now. Brooks Raley is 15th and he strikes out fewer batters than Casey Coleman. Su-Min Jung isn’t any good.

If there weren’t a dozen or more players in the top 20 who have fallen flat on their faces this season, you could bet good money some of them would be out of the top 20. As it is, most probably remain in the top 20 because they’ve all sucked.

It’s true the organization has had some risers this season, but they’ve had more decline. Plus, even the ones who have risen have decent potential. None of them are impact players.

Tim Wilken has had 5+ years to do something with this organization and we get this?

Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 4”

Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 3

We’ve taken an extensive look at the top 20 Cubs prospects this season by Sickels so it’s time to look at some others who weren’t ranked.

John Gaub

Gaub is coming of a season in which he walked almost a batter per inning and allowed a tons of runs, but this season he’s been pretty good. His strikeouts are through the roof. He has Marmol-esque strikeout potential. He’s struckout 54 in 36.1 innings, but his command is what has held this 26 year old back. He’s also walked 23 at AAA. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Gaub get a call-up at some point later in the season. The Cubs are still trying to win games so, you know, moving on to the more important things of trying to figure out what you can and can’t do next season will just have to wait until they’re no longer trying to win games.
Continue reading “Midseason look at the Cubs top prospects, part 3”