Michael Busch was kinda scuffling, but my eternal optimism always thinks anyone can be a hero at any time in baseball. And boy did he pick his moment:
There was rain in the area and since Busch is apparently part cat, he decided he didn’t feel like being wet longer than needed and also decided that it was best if he left no doubt:
Too bad the Brewers also won but the Cubs are taking care of their own stuff so we have to be thankful for that.
I was at a weekend conference in Chicago where I couldn’t actually go to a Cubs game, but did see them win the series against the Brewers. I followed most of the tough opening loss to the Padres before I had to go on airplane mode, but it’s good to know that the Cubs are holding serve while continuing to weather the storm (sort of like the planes I was on this weekend as they got bumped all over by turbulence due to funky weather).
Anyway, good news everyone!
Seiya Suzuki will also be heading to rehab soon and may be back shortly after. PCA may have played himself into staying with the club even when Seiya returns, but we certainly will see. Feeling pretty good about this team going forward even with all the frustrating moments we’ve all sat through.
Lineup tonight:
Let’s go win a baseball game…or don’t, I can’t tell them what to do.
The new international free agent signing period starts Wednesday. The Cubs were unable to stay within their allotted bonus pool limits last year, and won’t be able to spend more than $250,000 on a single player this year, despite having nearly four million dollars to spend. What that adds up to is the that the team is likely to trade some of that money, which can be moved only in the form of slots starting on July 2nd.
| Slot | Value |
| 1 | $2,288,700 |
| 2 | $458,000 |
| 3 | $309,300 |
| 4 | $206,700 |
For the last few weeks we have heard a few rumors that could be construed as related to the start of the IFA period. The Cubs have been telling teams they expect to deal Jason Hammel early and Jeff Samardzija late. Last year the Cubs received bonus pool space in connection with the Scott Feldman trade on July 2nd. We might see something similar with Hammel, with the pool space heading in the opposite direction. Hammel need not be involved, though. The team could deal a slot for minor league depth independently of its major league talent.
The trend in IFA has been towards locking up players ever-earlier. Some of the players who have agreed to deals with teams in this class did so ten months ago, so most teams know exactly what they need in space, and have likely been negotiating pool space trades for some time. I tried to round up as much information as I could to see which teams are clear trading partners for the Cubs. Obviously, the details of most deals are not yet known, so these are just guesses. On the other hand, big money deals disproportionately eat up pool space, and those are the ones that tend to leak. So, who will the Cubs deal with?
The Yankees are going to spend in the neighborhood of $15 million on prospects. They are more likely to trade space away then to trade for it. The Rangers are in the same boat as the Cubs, albeit with a far lower bonus pool to work with.
The Red Sox and Rays are interesting cases. Both teams seem to have commitments beyond what they could possibly trade pool space for.* Both have bad records this year, however, and are on track to have larger pools next year that they will be unable to use. It’s very uncommon for teams to back out of commitments, though, so don’t expect anything with those two.
*Teams can bring their budget up to 150% of their original allotment via trade.
The rest of these teams either seem to be involved in the market, but with big enough pools that exceeding them is unlikely (Astros, Marlins, White Sox, Twins), or haven’t been connected to any of the bigger names.
These teams have been connected to some big names, but their projected signing bonuses seem comfortably within their budgets (a million or so of projected excess space).
Here’s where we get to some interesting cases. The Brewers have reportedly agreed with Gilbert Lara for approximately $3.2 million. Their budget is around $2.6 million and max penalties in the absence of a trade start at $3.0 million. I suppose it’s possible that they are interested in a deal for Hammel + pool space. There’s not much depth in their system beyond Jimmy Nelson, though, and adding $600k+ in space will likely require something substantial in return.
The Rockies have been connected to Pedro Gonzalez, Antonio Arias, Yeremy Rosario, and Javier Guevara, which looks like it would put them right in the neighborhood of their $3.48 million max-penalty limit.
The Padres are a mystery. They are connected to a handful of big names that would put them right around the $3.77 million that they could possibly trade up to. Usually that’s the mark of a team that’s going over no matter what, and is not interested in acquiring space. On the other hand, they just fired their GM. If any team is going to back out on some agreements and/or make some trades to preserve flexibility for the next guy, it’s the Pads.
The Phillies, Blue Jays, and Royals seem to be within about a half million of their original budgets. They are probably under budget, but my confidence level in the reported information isn’t that high. Any of them could well be planning to trade for some space and go over. Also, the Blue Jays have been connected to the Cubs in trade talks for the last decade or so, so it seems mandatory that they be mentioned in this space.
The Dodgers haven’t really been connected to anyone. I just think it’s silly to rule them out when discretionary spending is at issue.
There are probably places on the Internet where one can freely complain about the Cubs without pushback; Obstructed View is not one of them. Being an astute bunch, any mindless grumbling here is likely to be met with some pointed questions:
Do you really want an aging corner-outfielder like Shin-Soo Choo on the roster for the next seven years, especially with where the team is right now? Is a player who relies on his legs as much as Jacoby Ellsbury a good bet at $153 million? $175 million for a pitcher who has yet to throw in the Majors in Masahiro Tanaka?
What exactly is it that you want the Cubs to do?
It’s a fair question, and deserves an answer. While I didn’t have any particular beef with the acquisitions of Justin Ruggiano, Jose Veras, Wesley Wright, George Kottaras, or Jason Hammel, they are, as a group, ah… uninspiring. I was unequivocally underwhelmed by the 2013-2014 offseason. So what were the alternatives?
In that spirit, here’s a list of moves I liked this offseason. In general, the acquiring teams made solid additions at reasonable prices. Note that I’m not saying that the Cubs should have made these moves, at least not in every case. Trades are subject to a receiving team’s preferences and specific questions of fit. In some cases, it may even be hard to see how the Cubs could have managed it. No, this list is more about the type of moves that were made. Moves that would have made me say: yeah, there’s some upside there. The Cubs still suck, but the front office is clearly on top of it.
I did omit a few transactions that seemed implausible from the Cubs’ perspective. Obviously, there’s no equivalent of a Prince Fielder/Ian Kinsler trade that could possibly happen involving the Cubs. And while I liked the Jose Abreu signing, it’s hard to see how the Cubs would have managed it. Call this the “best moves off the offseason that were within the realm of possibility for the Cubs.”
These are in no particular order, since our slideshow plugin seems to be down.
My inclination is that the Angels would have turned down Luis Valbuena plus something, but they probably shouldn’t have. Despite being a World Series hero, Freese is older and not as good defensively. Bourjos is a wizard in center, and a great "get" for the Cardinals. A similar trade involved the A’s acquiring defensive whiz Craig Gentry, but they were forced to give up an OK prospect in Michael Choice.
For much of his career, Josh Johnson has been one of the better pitchers in baseball. He was dealing with bone spurs last year and got hammered, so the Padres were able to sign him cheaply. Even in 2013, though, he managed to put up decent peripherals. He’s unquestionably a better value than Jason Hammel. This deal also comes with an inexpensive option year for the Padres if Johnson completes less than seven starts. That’s a trick the Cubs need to steal.
A heist for the Nats.
I realize that improving the Major League roster is somewhat of an anathema for the Cubs right now, but Fowler is a solid outfielder in his prime, and his price tag wasn’t very high.
I’ve mentioned these two before:
(The Sox) acquired Adam Eaton, a young center fielder with good speed and on-base skills to go along with some pop for a back-end of the rotation type in Hector Santiago. They turned Proven Closer Addison Reed into major league-ready third base prospect Matt Davidson.
Any one of the above moves would have been my favorite of the offseason by default. A few more:
Yes, I realize that there are questions about his defense. And I know that the Cubs have real infield talent close to arrival from the minor leagues. Still, I would have loved to see the team acquire another second base option to try out in 2014 instead of just relying on Darwin Barney again. (In fact, let’s get a time machine and try someone else out for 2013, as well). Part of the reason for this is just my general skittishness about prospects. I’m not confident that handing the job to Arismendy Alcantara next year is the way to go, and I’d prefer that Javier Baez stay on the left side of the infield for the time being. See if he can stick at shortstop with an eye on how Starlin Castro bounces back. Then stick him at third when Mike Olt busts*. As an alternative to Guerrero, Nick Franklin is the definition of expendable now that the Mariners have signed Robinson Cano. Even Aledmis Diaz might be worth a look.
I’m not Jim Johnson’s biggest fan by any stretch, but he’s pretty good, and, more importantly, seems like a decent bet to turn down a qualifying offer next year. Weeks is basically a failed prospect at this point; the O’s were just shedding salary. Oh well, I guess a mid–market team like the Cubs can’t afford to take on salary the way that Oakland can.
Burns is not quite Billy Hamilton, but he’s very fast and has legitimate plate discipline. Jerry Blevins is the man who once brought you Jason Kendall.
It’s a little curious the Cubs didn’t make an effort to improve their depth at the minor league level this offseason, which seems to be the main criticism of the system right now. Very strong at the top, but not all that deep. One would think that role players like James Russell and Darwin Barney might be useful in that regard, the way that Blevins was for the A’s here.
OK, I’m not being completely on the level here. The main pieces in this trade were actually Alex Torres and Logan Forsythe (meh). Baseball America really liked this move from the Rays’ perspective, but I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the Padres’ system. I needed a “minor leaguers for other minor leaguers” trade to expand on my previous point, and this was the closest thing to it that I could remember off the top of my head. Onwards.
When Theo and Jed took over, I expected a lot of turnover in the minor leagues; trades of old-regime farmhands for different ones- players who were more in line with the organization’s new philosophy. You know, old GM is in love with his “guys,” new GM sees things with objective eyes and cutting-edge analytics, and cleans house… that sort of thing. That hasn’t happened.
Take a look at this list. That’s John Sickels writing less than three months after Theo took over. It was the deepest of the reputable prospect lists I found, so I’m using it here. Context: There are 24 ranked prospects and 20 “others” listed by Sickels. Anthony Rizzo (#2), Zach Cates (#16), Dave Sappelt (#18), Ronald Torreyes (#19), Lendy Castillo (other), and Jeff Bianchi (other) were Thoyer acquisitions. So only 38 of the 44 were Hendry “guys.” And since then, Thoyer has completely cleaned house by trading away… 2 of the 38. Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz were traded to the Red Sox as compensation for Theo Epstein.
Safe to assume that DJ LeMahieu would have been on that list as well, so that’s three trades. And partial “house-cleaning” credit is assigned for not protecting Rule V draftees Ryan Flaherty and Marwin Gonzalez, who probably would have made the list. They fit the theme in that their Rule V selection means that Thoyer thought less of them than the rest of the league. So we’ll say that of the 41 Hendry guys on my hypothetical “Hendry Prospect List” (38 + DJ, Flaherty, and Marwin), three were traded and two were lost to Rule V. Only one was traded for another player. I find that remarkable.
Well, you might say, those types of trades are rare, and a lot of those guys were just let go when they turned out not to be prospects at all. I would agree that many of them are strictly org depth, but part of my expectation here was that the depth would be partially replaced by other depth. Players more in line with the “Cubs Way” attitude. And by my count, only 5* of the remaining “Hendry Prospects” have since left the organization. Jeff Beliveau and Robert Whitenack were DFA'ed and picked up by other teams. Rafael Dolis was signed by the Giants as a minor league free agent. Hayden Simpson and Jay Jackson were released.
*I might be wrong about a few of them, depending on who actually shows up in 2014. It’s tough for me to tell with minor league free agency and the like. The number is 4 if we go by players who played out 2013 in the org.
So… 31 of the 41 “Hendry Prospects” are still around. Obviously I haven’t done this for any other team, but that seems like no more than average turnover. What’s the lesson here? I have no idea. I just found it interesting.
It was nice to see the Cubs beating up on another team for once this year. They get to face another team that may be worse than they are in the Padres. The Padres have had a weird season so far. They opened the year with a series loss of the Mets, and have been swept by the Giants and the Rockies (twice!). However, they are currently coming off a sweep of the world champions, and managed to sweep the Dodgers in LA a week ago. Aside from the sweep of the Dodgers, they've only won a single game on the road.
2013 NL Ranks in parentheses
| Padres | Cubs | |
| wRC+ | 96 (8th) | 83 (14th) |
| BSR | 0.4 (6th) | -1.5 (9th) |
| UZR | -7.9 (14th) | -2.8 (10th) |
| DRS | -12 (14th) | -5 (12th) |
| SP FIP- | 136 (15th) | 99 (6th) |
| RP FIP- | 118 (14th) | 104 (10th) |
It's strange to see a Padres team with a decent offense and lousy pitching. Their rotation is a long way from the days of Jake Peavy and Mat Latos. Sadly, the Cubs are missing the chance to be inexplicably shut out for eight innings by Jason Marquis this series.
Kyuji Fujikawa is supposed to throw a bullpen session today, before heading out on a short rehab assignment.
Cameron Maybin's wrist is in terrible shape. He has a bone bruise, cartilage problems, and possible ligament damage. There's no timetable on his return. The Padres have a bunch of pitchers in various stages of recovery from TJS, but none of the names jump out at me.
Chase Headley is the main asset that the Padres have to dangle, and he'll probably be traded by the end of the year. It looks like he was a super-two player, so he has one additional year beyond this one. Headley has been underappreciated due to playing half his games in Petco. He's 21st in the NL over the past three seasons in BB%, third among 3b behind David Wright and Chipper Jones. However, last year's .498 SLG was the first time he's been above .400 in that stat for a whole season. For his career, he has hit .301/.371/.464 on the road, which disproportionately includes a lot of other NL west pitchers' parks, so he could be the real deal on a different team. He's also a plus defender at 3b. For all the talk of the Cubs being best positioned to land David Price, Headley seems like a much better guy to go after and lock up.
Expect an article or two from the Cubs media about the Cashner for Rizzo trade during this series. Cashner was bullpenned by the Padres for much of last year until another set of injuries hit him, and he started this year in the bullpen again before moving back to the rotation two weeks ago. If they can keep Cashner on the field, it could look like a pretty good trade for both teams. Cashner gets bonus points for his high BAR (Beard Above Replacement).
2013 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and ZiPS projected FIP listed for each pitcher.
Monday: Clayton Richard, LHP (7.94, 200, 5.49, 4.47) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.03, 74, 2.72, 3.35), 7:05 PM CT
It's fair to say that things haven't started out so well for Clayton Richard. He has a 9:11 K:BB ratio, given up four HRs, and has only pitched 17 innings combined in four starts. His ERA far outpaced his peripherals last year, and he was striking out a miniscule 4.4 batters per nine. As you might guess from that strikeout total, he's a sinkerballer.
Shark has 'lost' his past four starts, pitching a total of 23.2 innings with 30 strikeouts. Clearly he doesn't have TWTW. I would be surprised if he doesn't reach double digits in strikeouts in this game.
Tuesday: Edinson Volquez, RHP (6.39, 115, 4.40, 4.08) vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.76, 84, 3.74, 3.58), 7:05 PM CT
I was about to write that Edinson Volquez has fallen a long way, but after looking at his numbers I realized that his star never rose much to begin with. He had a good year with the Reds in 2008, posting 3.9 WAR, but he's struggled in every other season, whether from injuries or disappointment at continuing to lose the ROY vote or who knows what. Volquez gets strikeouts, but he also walks a lot of batters, which leads to short outings (also, runs). He averaged just over 5 IP per start last year.
Jackson struggled again in his last start against the Marlins. He's been uncharacteristically walking a lot of batters this season, and I haven't seen any suggestion as to what might be up. He had a grip problem a few starts ago, but in general he's been kind of off. All of his pitches are down a MPH or two.
Wednesday: Andrew Cashner, RHP (3.26, 103, 3.41, 3.71) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (3.92, 148, 5.19, 4.04), 7:05 PM CT
Feldman had his first decent start of the year, pitching into the seventh and only giving up two runs. He still only struck out two batters, but it was better than some of the keystone kops stuff going on in his other starts. This was the first one where he did not have a throwing error. On the season, Feldman has given up 16 runs, 9 of them earned. He's got his work cut out for him if he wants to stay in the rotation.
I discussed Cashner a bit above. He started the season in the pen but moved into the rotation two weeks ago. He's been a walking injury ever since he hit the bigs with the Cubs. IIRC he did not have surgery after his 2011 injury, and the Padres took it easy with him in 2012 by having him pitch in relief. He was sent to the minors to stretch out half way through the year, and promptly suffered a lat strain. His MPH was way down when he returned, and he was shut down two starts later with a strained tendon "behind his armpit". I guess that's a shoulder? To make matters worse, he badly cut his hand in a hunting accident in the offseason. Suffice to say, the Cubs may have been right and starting pitching is not in his future.
Thursday: Eric Stults, LHP (5.67, 112, 3.93, 4.30) vs Travis Wood, LHP (2.25, 100, 4.27, 4.29), 1:20 PM CT
Stults shut down the Mets in his first start, but hasn't fared so well in his other starts. To his advantage, he's only walked four batters this year – it looks like he's mostly just getting burned by sequencing. He throws mostly fastballs which set up his changeup, which is his out pitch.
Wood continued his streak of solid starts by limiting the Marlins to two runs in six innings, striking out five and walking one. He's still due for some regression (.195 BABIP), but in general he's been a bright spot in the rotation. Since coming to the Cubs, he's relied on his cutter much more than in the past, which seems to be a trend around here even with Dempster gone.
Will the Cubs complete the hat trick of being swept by some of the worst teams in the NL? This time they have the additional challenge of getting swept at home.
NL Rank in parens
| Padres | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .278 (15th) | .296 (14th) |
| UBR | -4.4 (15th) | 4.1 (1st) |
| UZR | -1.7 (9th) | 9.9 (5th) |
| DRS | -7 (9th) | 6 (5th) |
| SP FIP | 3.98 (11th) | 3.95 (10th) |
| RP FIP | 3.74 (11th) | 4.68 (16th) |
The Cubs have already been swept by an NL team that has even worse offensive numbers. Now it's the Padres chance to bring up that average by feasting on the Cubs bullpen. The Cubs pen is the only one in the NL with a FIP above 4, and they have that beaten and then some.
Anthony Rizzo replacement Yonder Alonso has been their best hitter on the season with a .350 wOBA. As for the rest, the Padres have had four players post a sub .300 wOBA in over 100 PAs this year. The Cubs only have two (Stewart, Soto), though Soriano and Barney just miss the list. Cameron Maybin leads the Padres with 14 SB, and he, Wil Venable, and replacement level SS Andy Parrino lead the team in baserunning numbers. Not surprisingly, Alonso and C Nick Hundley are the major sinks in baserunning numbers. RF Chris Denorfia is projected to be their best defender, while Venable and Alonso are the worst.
Monday: Jeff Suppan, LOL (4.21, 5.13, 5.43, 5.11) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.86, 5.31, 4.28, 4.00), 1:20 PM CT
Jeff Suppan has made five starts with the Padres, throwing 25.2 innings and striking out just five batters. Any of those batters who weren't pitchers should just retire immediately.
Travis Wood followed up his serviceable start to the season with a pretty good one against the Astros. He looked a little shaky early but then bore down and had great stuff the rest of the way. I was surprised to see that he only struck out three batters in the start, and he was pulled in the 6th inning after throwing 97 pitches.
Tuesday: Eric Stults, LHP (1.96, 3.59, 4.51, 4.27), vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.00, 2.96, 3.18, 3.95), 1:20 PM CT
Stults was a swingman/AAAA starter for the Dodgers for many years, and bounced around to the Rockies and White Sox before the Padres picked him up earlier this season after a DFA. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a HR yet this year, and has a K/BB ratio of one. On the other hand, he looks like the kind of guy the Padres always seem to get serviceable production from (cf. Kevin Correia).
Shark had another solid outing without any run support against the Astros. He was hitting 95 to 96 on his fastball on the stadium gun, and his splitter looked as nasty as it has all season. His walk rate sits at a bafflingly low 2.84 BB/9. ZiPS has him projected at a sub-4 FIP even with a projected 4.50 BB/9, and if that walk rate has Transformed then wow.
Wednesday: Anthony Bass, RHP (3.55, 3.52, 3.46, 4.01) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.14, 2.70, 3.24, 3.88), 1:20 PM CT
Bass has been amazeballs as a starter this year, and has nearly doubled his strikeout rate from relieving last year. He was hammered in his last start by the Mets.
Dempster pitched into the 8th inning in his last start, giving up one run and taking the loss. He just doesn't want to win.
