Tag: shawn camp

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (26-38) at New York Mets (24-37)

seriespreview

The Cubs have had a crappy year, but it's been just about as bad for the Mets. I'm sure Ron Santo is smiling somewhere that at least if the Cubs are going to be bad, the Mets are just as awful. They've gone 2-8 in their last ten games, and there's been a roster shakeup or two. Manager Terry Collins's seat must be pretty warm. Oddly enough, his last job outside the Mets organization was as the manager of the Northwoods League's Duluth franchise. Summer college leagues are a scam if I ever saw one – the players can't get paid thanks to the NCAA doing NCAA things, and I know the Madison franchise always seemed to draw plenty of people (who drank plenty of beer).

Matchup

  Cubes Meats
wRC+ 89 (12th) 84 (13th)
BSR 0.5 (8th) 7.2 (1st)
UZR 6.3 (6th) -16.0 (14th)
DRS -5 (11th) -18 (13th)
SP FIP- 93 (4th) 95 (5th)
RP FIP- 106 (12th) 115 (15th)

The Mets bullpen is pretty awful, but their starting staff is pretty good. Luckily the Cubs will miss Matt Harvey and the soon to be promoted Zack Wheeler, the two of the only three bright spots on the roster. The other, 3b David Wright, has been the primary source of the Mets first place baserunning numbers. Wright has been worth half a win on the basepaths this year. He was a very good baserunner earlier in his career, stealing as many as 34 bases in a season, and has 12 so far this year.

Injury Updates

SS Ruben Tejada is on the DL with a quad injury, but everyone else on the Mets injury report is a pitcher. Mets SP Dillon Gee has been bothered to various degrees by finger tendinits all year. The Mets are going to a (ugh) six man rotation after calling up Wheeler to accomodate Gee and Niese, who has been similarly banged up. Most of the other injuries are to relievers, but the biggest one of all is Johan Santana, who his out for the year following shoulder capsule surgery.

Not an injury here per se, more an injustice. The Mets DFA'd Rick Ankiel the other day following a 20 inning game of offensive futility against the Marlins, eventually losing 2-1. You go twenty innings and don't try to pitch Ankiel? I just don't know, Mets. 

For the Cubs, Zach Putnam was diagnosed with a bone spur in his elbow following an MRI. Shawn Camp is pitching for Kane County right now, and could be back soon, unfortunately. Though if whatever his injury was is gone and he pitches like he did last year, that would be cool. Not holding my breath here though. Steve Clevenger has been rehabbing in Iowa for nearly two weeks now. I wouldn't be surprised if his rehab time is up soon. No new news on Scott Baker or Arodys Vizcaino since their last setbacks. 

News, notes, blood oaths, etc.

The Cubs signed 11th round pick Jordan Hankins. He was an infielder in college, but they're converting him to catcher. Maybe that's just to get his time behind the plate in so they can convert him to a pitcher later, since they've had a lot of success there (laughing). 

Brett's got a story breaking down the latest Wrigley renovation news. The short version of it was that there was no interesting news, which is good news considering all the posturing and whatnot that surrounds this process. It sounds like there's still going to be lots of negotiating/palm greasing for all the construction around Wrigley, but the team will be able to start improving the stadium itself this offseason (priorities: outfield signage/tyranovision, player facilities).

Pitching Matchups

Friday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.76, 85, 3.58, 3.63) vs Shaun Marcum, RHP (4.96, 78, 3.92, 3.46), 6:05 PM CT

I don't have anything new to add about Jackson that I didn't say in a recent facepalm, so here's that paragraph again:

The 'real' Edwin Jackson showed up for the first time this season, striking out eight while allowing one run, one walk, and four hits in seven innings. More importantly, his fastball averaged 94.78 on the day, much closer to his career avg of 95 mph than the paltry low 93.x mph he had been throwing earlier this year. The velocity bump showed up in the rest of his pitches that well. We had a false start of excitement in his rain-shortened start against the White Sox last week – his stuff looked a lot better (maybe more movement), but the Cell has a hot gun and a historically bad offense. He was pummeled for 12 hits and five walks by the DBacks in his next start, averaging 92.4 on his fastball. He said the key to his good start was that he was just "having fun out there", so I guess he got a pep talk from Brett Favre before the game.

The Mets signed Marcum to a 1/4 contract this offseason, which is a little puzzling if you see his numbers over the last three seasons. Granted, he did miss the last month or so of last season with an elbow injury, but still. He's had some problems with strand rate this year, which is not surprising considering how his defense rates behind him.

Saturday: Scott Feldman, RHP (3.22, 100, 3.85, 3.91) vs Jon Niese, LHP (4.24, 114, 4.53, 3.80), 12:10 PM CT

Paul Maholm 2.0 has had two meh starts in a row, giving up two runs in six innings to the Angels and five runs in six innings to the Reds. Between those two starts, he struck out just three batsmen. He should be pitching for a contender a month or two from now.

Niese has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate and a big jump in his walk rate this year. He has no significant changes in velocity, so that's not the problem. It looks like he's lost command of his cutter and curveball, as both have been hit way harder than in previous seasons.

Sunday: Matt Garza, RHP (6.26, 126, 4.13, 3.86) vs Jeremy Hefner, RHP (4.11, 132, 4.35, 4.51), 12:10 PM CT

Garza was simply destroyed in his last start. I'd say more about it, but his numbers seem to be messed up for that start in the BB database, so I'll stop in case any drunk baseball execs are reading this and forgot what happened in that start.

Hefner's a pitch to contact type of pitcher, so he cold do well against this lineup. The Cubs tagged him for four runs in four innings in their last matchup. He's coming off four straight quality starts, striking out 21 in those 25 innings with four walks. 

Sweeney up, Sappelt down

From cubs.com:

The Cubs are expected to call up outfielder Ryan Sweeney from Triple-A Iowa and option Dave Sappelt to the Minor Leagues on Monday.

This is an interesting move. On one hand, Sweeney is almost certainly the better baseball player at this point. Sappelt just hasn't really made an impact at the major league level, for one reason or another. Additionally, this allows Sappelt to play every day, which might actually help him in the long run (I care less about Sweeney playing every day; his development is just about over). The interesting wrinkle, though, is that Sweeney and DeJesus are both left-handed (Sappelt is a rightie). Sveum has aggressively platoon players this season and it's worked well for DeJesus hiding from lefties. That's no longer on option (though Sappelt was floundering against lefties worse than DeJesus likely would've).

The upshot is that DeJesus will probably see a significantly higher number of left-handers than he was before, and slightly less righthanders. Sweeney is more of an "every 4th or 5th start, first PH off the bench" type. In that role, he could have some real value. He could also draw the occasional relief start in the corners. 

Sappelt had options, so we don't lose him. He's 26, so he's not young anymore, but I think he's still got the talent level of a solid 4th OF. Sweeney already is one.

It's worth thinking about who on the 40-man roster is expendable (and the 25-man, too). I can easily eliminate 3 pitchers (Camp, Loe, Rusin) and not lose anything (I'm not sure any of the three would even be claimed), and you can throw in Rondon if you like. The only other 2 guys I could easily lose are Ian Stewart and Julio Borbon. Stewart is broken, and Borbon is replacement-level incarnate, maybe a hair above. At least three of those sports will need to be filled when Vizcaino, Baker, and Clevenger return.

2013 PECOTA Projections

The 2013 PECOTA projections are out and I thought I'd post some of the Cubs below. Since you have to be a subscriber in order to download the spreadsheet, I'm only going to include PA and wOBA, which I calculated using the basic formula. For pitchers I'll only show IP and FIP (I calculated this too).

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Batters

Name PA wOBA
Starlin Castro 623 0.325
David DeJesus 555 0.328
Scott Hairston 456 0.318
Anthony Rizzo 631 0.341
Welington Castillo 374 0.321
Alfonso Soriano 552 0.316
Ian Stewart 365 0.312
Nate Schierholtz 349 0.321
Darwin Barney 551 0.291
Luis Valbuena 256 0.307
Dioner Navarro 191 0.302
Brett Jackson 131 0.298
Steve Clevenger 137 0.283
Dave Sappelt 152 0.295
Junior Lake 46 0.280
Josh Vitters 250 0.286
Matt Szczur 250 0.284

PECOTA is projecting the Cubs only score 664 runs so it's not a powerhouse offense or anything. Castro is expected to have the most value at 3.4 WARP and no one else, using the depth charts section of Baseball Prospectus, is projected with more than 1.9 WARP.

2013 PECOTA Projections for Cubs Pitchers

Name IP FIP
Matt Garza 180.0 3.88
Scott Baker 138.0 3.91
Edwin Jackson 186.0 4.04
Kyuji Fujikawa 56.3 2.65
Carlos Marmol 61.0 3.04
Scott Feldman 138.7 4.32
Travis Wood 106.0 4.12
Carlos Villanueva 101.3 4.19
Jeff Samardzija 195.3 4.58
Shawn Camp 65.7 3.89
Manny Corpas 44.0 4.09
Arodys Vizcaino 36.3 4.69
Jaye Chapman 36.0 4.45
Marcos Mateo 36.7 4.56
Casey Coleman 50.0 4.72
Trey McNutt 36.0 4.92
Rafael Dolis 18.7 5.02
James Russell 61.0 4.79
Chris Rusin 63.3 4.79
Brooks Raley 54.3 5.10
Alberto Cabrera 23.3 4.96

PECOTA loves Kyuji Fujikawa and still really likes Carlos Marmol, but there's still going to be a closer controversy there if both perform as PECOTA expects. As for Jeff Samardzija, I'd not put a whole lot of weight in these forecasts. He beat them all last year because it was clear he had improved. The projections are still weighting the seasons prior to 2012 in which he mostly sucked. PECOTA doesn't think much of Arodys Vizcaino.

PECOTA likes the Cubs pitching. Only the Reds in the NL Central are projected to allow fewer than the 706 runs the Cubs are projected to allow.

Overall, PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to finish in 5th place in the NL Central with 77 wins.

How many games will the 2013 Cubs win?

Over at The Cub Contrarian, Kyle used an estimated WAR for players to get a team win total. I thought I'd do the same thing, but I'm going to do it two ways: projections and my wild ass guesses.

Wild Ass Guess

Catchers: Welington Castillo (1.0), Dioner Navarro (negative infinity)

I could easily see Castillo being a 2 WAR player, but I'm not buying it. I could also see him being replacement level, but I think he'll end up adding some value, but not a whole lot. Dioner Navarro is a waste of a roster spot and perhaps the most overpaid player in baseball history in that he's earning infinitely more than he deserves to be paid.

1st Base: Anthony Rizzo (3.0) backups (0.0)

I think Rizzo is a very good young player, but I don't believe he's a future superstar. I think he'll make some all-star teams and provide a lot of value while being paid little. That sounds like what the Cubs need.

2nd Base: Darwin Barney (2.5), backups (0.0)

Barney isn't much of a hitter, but he's a fantastic fielder. Put him in the 8th spot (9th would be better if the pitcher wasn't batting) and let him do his thing with the glove.

3rd Base: Ian Stewart/Luis Valbuena (1.0), Josh Vitters (can't count that low)

Don't say I'm not an optimistic person because I just predicted that this horrible duo would actually provide positive value. Not much and I'm inclined to go with replacement level, but I'm just too optimistic a person for that nonsense.

Shortstop: Starlin Castro (3.5), backups (hopefully there aren't any)

Like Rizzo, I think Castro is a very good young player, but future superstar probably isn't what he'll become. Coming off his worst offensive season he'll be trying his hardest. Hopefully he can take some more pitches and walk more. If he can do that, he could become a very good hitter. As it is now, he's a bit better than average at the plate. Defense is still a big question mark.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano (1.5)

Soriano had a pretty good season last year, but I think we'll see him drop back down this year.

Center Field: David DeJesus (1.0)

I think DeJesus declines at the plate and I don't expect much out of him in CF either.

Right Field: Nate something or other (0.5)

I just don't think Nate is very good.

Other backups (0)

I don't ever expect much of anything out of the backups. Their job is to basically hold the job down a day here and a day there. Inconsistent playing time makes it worthless to try and predict what these guys will do in my opinion.

Rotation: Jeff Samardzija (2.5), Matt Garza (2.0), Edwin Jackson (2.5), Scott Baker (1.0), Scott Feldman (0.0), Others (1.0)

I don't think Feldman will be in the rotation long. He's not all that good. The top 3 aren't anything special, but they're not bad either. Baker will probably have a worse year than projected due to returning from TJS, but he could still provide some positive value

Bullpen: (2.0)

Like the bench, I find it useless to try and predict what you're going to get from a reliever in such a small sample. I do think we'll see Carlos Marmol have a better year than last year before being traded near the deadline. I have no clue what to expect from Kyuji Fujikawa. Shawn Camp is OK and so is James Russell. As long as Rafael Dolis doesn't actually close games this year, I'll consider the bullpen outstanding.

Total: 24.5 WAR

Replacement level is generally thought to be a .300 winning percentage, which is equal to 48.6 wins over 162 games. Let's get started.

So my wild ass guess is that the Cubs win 73 games. Kyle on The Cub Contrarion got 80-82, but he was using a .330 replacement level team and was even more optimistic than the optimistic me.

Projections (CAIRO)

In table format…

Player oWAR pWAR Fld WAR
Anthony Rizzo 1.7   1 1.8
Darwin Barney 0.3   9 1.2
Luis Valbuena 1.0   0 1.0
Ian Stewart 0.6   -4 0.2
Starlin Castro 2.5   -4 2.1
Alfonso Soriano 0.9   -2 0.7
David DeJesus 0.9   -2 0.7
Nate Schierholtz 0.6   -1 0.5
Backups 2.0     2.0
         
Jeff Samardzija   *1.5   *3.1
Matt Garza   2.6   2.6
Edwin Jackson   2.8   2.8
Scott Baker   *0.2   *1.6
Scott Feldman   1.1   1.1
Bullpen   2   2.0
Total       23.4

CAIRO only projected 30 innings for Scott Baker so I used the newly released ZiPS projection of 1.6 instead. For Samardzija, CAIRO was still projecting some relief appearances since he'd been a reliever in 2011 so I also used the 3.1 ZiPS projection.

The projections version (better than my wild ass guesses) makes the Cubs a 72 win team.

Cubs roster updates

Last Update (2/21/2013): Removed Tony Campana from the 40-man roster. Added Scott Hairston to the 40-man roster.

Earlier this week the Cubs re-signed Shawn Camp to a 1-year, $1.35 million contract. They also made a series of moves in preparation of protecting players from next month's Rule 5 Draft. They added Logan Watkins to the roster along with Trey McNutt, Christian Villanueva and Robert Whitenack. They traded Jake Brigham to the Rangers for former top draft prospect Barrett Loux and a player to be named later.

Brigham was on the 40-man roster and Loux is not so that saved them a save. They also sold Bryan LaHair to Japan to aid them in their battle against ham. The Cubs roster now sits at 40 players.

While Loux was highly thought of prior to the draft, he wasn't expected to go in the 1st round and definitely not in the top 6 picks. He did and my guess would be it was so the Diamondbacks could save a little money. Been there, done that. Usually doesn't work out.

Here was Loux's scouting report at the time of the draft:

The Tigers spent heavily to sign high school pitchers Rick Porcello ($7 million contract in the first round) and Casey Crosby ($748,500 in the fifth) in 2007, and thought they also met the $800,000 asking price of Loux, their 24th-rounder. He changed his mind about signing and instead opted to attend Texas A&M, where his 2009 season was halted by bone chips in his elbow. After having the chips removed, Loux is healthy again and racking up strikeouts with a 90-92 mph fastball that touches 95. The 6-foot-5, 220-pounder throws with such ease that his fastball appears even harder. If he had a standout second pitch, he'd be a first-round pick, but he may have to settle for the sandwich round because his curveball and changeup are merely effective. His curveball was his best pitch in high school but hasn't been as sharp since his elbow surgery. He'll show an average changeup, though not on a consistent basis. Some teams have medical concerns about Loux, who missed two months of his high school senior season with a tender shoulder.

Loux will be 24 in April so he's not really a young prospect and has only two professional years of experience. He did perform rather well in AA last season, but the sub 20% strikeout rate could be a concern. He does throw strikes. He had a decent 3.48 ERA and the same is true for his 3.66 FIP. He was not ranked in the Rangers top 10 last year and may not find himself ranked in the Cubs top 10 this year.

However, he does become one of the more interesting starting pitching prospects in the Cubs organization simply because they lack anyone else who could be ready before the end of the century.

Below is the updated 40-man roster with salaries for each player through 2020.

Pitchers DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Scott Baker 9/19/81 R-R 6'4" 215 5.5              
Michael Bowden 9/9/86 R-R 6'3" 215                
Alberto Cabrera 10/25/88 R-R 6'4" 210                
Shawn Camp 11/18/75 R-R 6'0" 205 1.35              
Casey Coleman 7/3/87 L-R 6'0" 185                
Rafael Dolis 1/10/88 R-R 6'4" 215                
Scott Feldman 2/7/83 L-R 6'6" 230 6              
Kyuji Fujikawa 7/21/80 L-R 6'0" 190 4 5.5            
Matt Garza 11/26/83 R-R 6'4" 215 Arb 4              
Edwin Jackson 9/9/83 R-R 6'3" 210 11 11 11 11        
Carlos Marmol 10/14/82 R-R 6'2" 215 9.8              
Trey McNutt 8/2/89 R-R 6'4" 220                
Brooks Raley 6/29/88 L-L 6'3" 185                
Hector Rondon 2/26/88 R-R 6'3" 180                
Chris Rusin 10/22/86 L-L 6'2" 195                
James Russell 1/8/86 L-L 6'4" 200 Arb 1              
Jeff Samardzija 1/23/85 R-R 6'5" 225 Arb 1              
Carlos Villanueva 11/28/83 R-R 6'2" 235 5 5            
Arodys Vizcaino 11/13/90 R-R 6'0" 190                
Robert Whitenack 11/20/88 R-R 6'5" 185                
Travis Wood 2/6/87 R-L 5'11" 175                
Catchers DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Welington Castillo 4/24/87 R-R 5'10" 210                
Steve Clevenger 4/5/86 L-R 6'0" 195                
Dioner Navarro 2/9/84 S-R 5'9" 205 1.75              
Infielders DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Darwin Barney 11/8/85 R-R 5'10" 185                
Starlin Castro 3/24/90 R-R 6'0" 190 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 16
Junior Lake 3/27/90 R-R 6'2" 215                
Anthony Rizzo 8/8/89 L-L 6'3" 220                
Ian Stewart 4/5/85 L-R 6'3" 215 Arb 2              
Luis Valbuena 11/30/85 L-R 5'10" 195                
Christian Villanueva 6/19/91 R-R 5'11" 160                
Josh Vitters 8/27/89 R-R 6'2" 200                
Logan Watkins 8/29/89 L-R 5'11" 170                
Outfielders DOB B/T Ht Wt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
David DeJesus 12/20/79 L-L 5'11" 190 4.25 6.5            
Scott Hairston 5/25/80 R-R 6'0" 205 2.5 2.5            
Brett Jackson 8/2/88 L-R 6'2" 210                
Dave Sappelt 1/2/87 R-R 5'9" 195                
Nate Schierholtz 2/15/84 L-R 6'1" 205 2.25              
Jorge Soler 2/25/92 R-R 6'3" 205 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33
Alfonso Soriano 1/7/76 R-R 6'1" 195 18 18            
Matt Szczur 7/20/89 R-R 6'1" 195                

I used to enjoy taking a look at how much the Cubs were scheduled to be paying out and how much they might have left based on a realistic estimated payroll. This was fun for me becuase if I knew how much money they had, I could estimate how many wins they could buy. Buying wins is a lot more fun when the wins actually mean something and the Cubs have no intention of buying wins now. They're trying to buy wins for later through the farm system and maybe getting lucky here or there.

Knowing how much the Cubs already have under contract is kind of irrelevant at this point except unless I'm interested in bookkeeping. I'm not.

This will probably be my last look at the Cubs roster in this way. I was never very good at updating it throughout the season, but it had always been available on the menu here and at ACB. And I had always taken a thorough look prior to the next season. Usually more than a couple times. This post will find its way onto the menu until later in the 2013 season. I might again be interested in this, but it won't be until keeping track of the money provides some incentive for me to do so. The Cubs will suck in 2013 and in all reality 2014 too. Maybe in 2015 and 2016. It's going to be awhile before this team contends and there's no point in figuring out how many wins the Cubs can buy. It just doesn't do anything for me when the Cubs won't be buying those wins.

Bimillenial Facepalm – 11.2.1

Cubs "losing" a bunch of players to free agency/waivers

Team MVP Shawn Camp was the only officially official free agent on the roster, but a few other players have opted for free agency after being kicked off the Cubs 40-man roster. Apparently they don't realize that "cut from the Cubs roster" is not going to be a net positive for them in future negotiations. 

So far, the team has "lost" the following players to free agency/other organizations

As Aisley pointed out, given Mather's -1.5 fWAR last year he's probably going to have to pay some team $15m to play for them next year (laughing)

Brenly Replacement Search Continues

Dan Plesac has joined Eric Karros as a candidate for the position. Please, no Plesac. I'm really hoping to hear that Doug Glanville is actually being considered, rather than just being wishcast by various fans. 

Thoyer Conference call with season ticket holders

Brett has a paraphrased transcript over at Bleacher Nation. Nothing too earth-shattering there. They admit that they inherited some really shitty pitching depth and mentioned that they're not planning to bullpen Arodys Vizcaino, which is great news. They also said they're not interested in doing any deals like the Cubs did with Carlos Pena that defers a huge chunk of money. But there's no real reason for them to do that right now anyway because they have so little payroll.

Javier Baez Update

Baez broke the tip of his left thumb, but it was a non-displaced fracture so it sounds like it's relatively not a big deal. It will end his AFL season, however. Logan Watkins was given his spot for the rest of the league's short season.

 

Cubs float a balloon about bringing back Ryan Dempster

In that same article, Carrie Muskat mentioned that Hoyer has been in contact with Dempster's agent. Hoyer was quick to down-play this, and said it was more of a "I bumped into him" kind of situation. Though it's hard to accidentally bump into someone when you pick up your phone and call them. Maybe he and Demp's agent were just discussing candlesticks as wedding gifts for a mutual friend of theirs.

Vague trade rumor of the moment

Bruce Levine mentioned last week that the salary-dumping Marlins have approached the Cubs about trading Josh Johnson. If (almost) all he costs is money, it's something I think that Thoyer would be interested in. He turns 29 in January, but has surprisingly little mileage on his arm. Of course, that's due to an injury or two…

The Cubs should strike while the iron is hot here, because if the Marlins secure the funds for a new ballpark they might keep Johnson and go on another spending spree.

(That's probably a top ten all-time Onion article)

Additional vague trade rumor of the moment

The Cubs are interested in Dan Haren, and according to Heyman they have been involved in "talks". The Angels have to decide today if they're going to pick up his option. I would be shocked if a deal gets done here though. The Angels don't have a ton of leverage.

Minor league coaching hires

The Cubs have hired Anthony Iapoce as the new minor league hitting coordinator. He was previously an instructor in the Blue Jays system, and a career minor leaguer with the Brewers and Marlins before that. The Cubs also grabbed Vandy pitching coach Derek Johnson as the new minor league pitching coordinator. Vandy went to the College World Series in 2011, and eight of their pitchers were drafted (two in the first round), and he also worked with David Price before he was drafted.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

Off-topic comments thread I recently enjoyed

There was much discussion of board and role-playing games in the comments yesterday, as well as arguments for and against plastic cutting boards. Needless to say, it's been our busiest day in weeks here at OV. The 2013 Cubs, everyone!

Cubs offseason begins now

The end of the World Series marked the start of the baseball offseason. We'll hear tons of rumors over the next few month, some of them may even have to do with the Cubs. Most of them won't and most of them will be nonsense, but it's still fun. In the past this time of the year was quite busy. The Cubs would have an important free agent or two. At the very least we could discuss whether the team should offer such players arbitration. Though arbitration remains for free agents, it's quite different this year.

The Cubs only have one free agent, Shawn Camp. Manny Corpas also would have been a free agent, but he already declined a minor league assignment and is a free agent. It's still worth pointing out some of the changes that the new CBA brought. There are no more type A and type B free agents. In order to receive compensation for a free agent lost, the team must provide the free agent with a qualifying offer. This is determined by the average of the top 125 highest paid players. This year the qualifying offer is no less than $13.3 million. Obviously the Cubs will not make a qualifying offer to Camp so it will be no sooner than next year before this is even in the discussion for the Cubs.

Teams have until five days after the World Series to make a qualifying offer and the player then has 7 days to accept or reject it. If a player accepts the offer he goes back on his team's 40-man roster and will earn $13.3 million next season, or more if the team offers more than that. If a player rejects it he is then a free agent and the team that made the qualifying offer would then get a compensation pick if the player signs elsewhere.

That compensation pick will take place between rounds 1 and 2. The team that signed the player will lose a 1st or 2nd round pick depending on where they are slotted to pick in next year's draft.

The signing team will lose a 1st round pick as long as it doesn't have a top 10 pick. If it does, they lose their 2nd round pick. Unlike before, that lost pick is not given to the former team. It's just lost. Every other team moves up a spot in the draft.

This new system makes it especially difficult to accrue multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. For a rebuilding team like the Cubs, this CBA made their job quite a bit harder. In the past you'd even see relievers, not even closers, offered arbitration when those players qualified as type A or B free agents. Then the team would get a draft pick. Those days are over. Only the most elite relievers will receive a qualifying offer. There are few of them in the game.

This doesn't affect the Cubs this year. There's nothing to discuss as far as Shawn Camp is concerned. Perhaps the Cubs re-sign him, but there is no chance they make a qualifying offer. Unfortunatley, the Cubs won't have a pick after their 1st, which will be 2nd overall, until after the compensation picks between rounds 1 and 2.

Since Chris Volstad was placed on waivers and claimed by the Royals, the Cubs have only 5 arbitration eligible players. Matt Garza is eligible for the fourth time while Ian Stewart a third time. Luis Valbuena, James Russell and Jeff Samardzija are all eligible for the first time. Matt Swartz projected their salaries awhile back. The total for these 5 is $17.0 million, but I'm still guessing that Ian Stewart will be non-tendered. Swartz projected $2.3 million for Stewart.

At the Major League level, the Cubs only have four players under contract: Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Marmol, David DeJesus and Starlin Castro. Jorge Soler and Gerardo Concepcion are also under contract and on the team's 40-man roster. Those 6 will be paid about $38.25 million next year.

The arbitration eligible players and players with guaranteed contracts will be paid around $55.25 million.

Offensively, the Cubs have holes at 3rd base and CF. The rotation is one big hole after Garza and Samardzija. They've got plenty of money to spend so it will be interesting to see how they fill these holes.

Trade Deadline Rumors (Rangers acquired Dempster???, Russell, Garza, Camp, Baker, Webster, BJ Upton, Hope Monster, Buster Olney’s twitter account, Soriano staying put)

This was posted earlier. Updates will be added for the next few hours (scroll down).

According to Jon Heyman, Ryan Dempster has been traded to the Dodgers. More to come if it's confirmed.

Dodgers getting Dempster…..final dotting of i's and crossing of t's being worked on……

— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) July 31, 2012

Still no word on whether it's official or who may be coming to the Cubs, but I'm sure Dempster will be traded to the Dodgers at some point today. 

UPDATE 1: CBS Sports is reporting that the Cubs are still shopping Matt Garza. 

UPDATE 2: On twitter there are rumors that this could be a larger deal and some are suggesting James Russell could be included. 

If Dempster to Dodgers is multi-player package, James Russell might be another guy on the move.

— Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) July 31, 2012

UPDATE 3: George Offman confirms the deal is close and includes more than just Dempster.

UPDATE 4: Phil Rogers reportedly said on MLB Network that the Cubs really want Allen Webster.

UPDATE 5: Phil Rogers, who is normally full of shit, suggests that not only Dempster and Russell, but Shawn Camp, Jeff Baker and maybe even prospects could be included)

UPDATE 6: Kevin Goldstein tweets that the Cubs really want Webster and are trying to add to the package to get him.

UPDATE 7: Jayson Stark said that it looked like Garza would be traded today. Nick Cafardo agrees.

UPDATE 8: Buster Olney says the Diamondbacks are working hard to acquire an ace and that a Justin Upton and Matt Garza trade makes some sense. Holy shit. 

Justin Upton does have the Cubs on his no-trade list so there's that issue to work out. 

UPDATE 9: Yankees are talking to the Cubs, but no financials have been discussed and the Cubs would have to send money. 

UPDATE: 10: Dodgers are looking at other pitchers than Dempster.

UPDATE 11: Bruce Levine tweets that Dempster told him he'd accept a trade to the Yankees and Rangers along with the Dodgers.

Cubs are reportedly talking with one other team besides the Dodgers.

UPDATE 12: Who flinches first? Dodgers or Cubs? I'm going with Cubs. 

UPDATE 13: Muskat says that Casey Coleman maybe in the clubhouse warming up in case Dempster is traded. He might be. He might not be. It could go either way.

UPDATE 14: Alfonso Soriano is desperate to get out of Chicago. Here's what MLBTR has on him today:

Alfonso Soriano has provided the Cubs with a list of teams to which he would accept a trade, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter). The Giants aren’t on it. Soriano was interested in waiving his no-trade clause to join the Dodgers, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). However, the Shane Victorinotrade likely reduces Los Angeles' interest in Soriano.

Now you know. 

UPDATE 15: There's just a little over 1 hour until the deadline. We might hear about a completed deal after the deadline, but we should know everything within 90 minutes. 

UPDATE 16: One of my favorite blogs, RLYW, briefly talks about Dempster and he doesn't see any need for the Yankees to acquire him. 

I don’t see Dempster filling a need, but it doesn’t hurt the Yankees to pretend they’re involved if only to make the price for Texas a bit steeper.  Anyway, I think Dempster is a non-issue but we can use this entry for general trade deadline discussion.

SG is a pretty smart guy and I imagine a lot of Yankees fans feel this way. 

UPDATE 17: Nothing new, which really isn't an update, but what the hell?

UPDATE 18: Kaplan says the Cubs have several balls in the air. 

UPDATE 19: Cubs and Tigers are trying to work out a deal for Soriano, but it's unlikely to happen today. A trade is August is possible.

UPDATE 20: It appears the Dodgers are out on Dempster, which would leave only the Yankees.

UPDATE 21: Soriano is staying put for at least this week.

UPDATE 22: Heyman says the Yankees may have acquired Dempster. They may not have too. 

UPDATE 23: Heyman says that Buster Olney says that the Rangers acquired Dempster.

Dale Sveum’s First Half MVPs: Shawn Camp and James Russell

NEW YORK — Who's your first half Most Valuable Player for the Cubs? Manager Dale Sveum picked relievers Shawn Camp and James Russell.

Camp was 2-4 with a 2.86 ERA and one save, while Russell was 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA entering Sunday. Russell had a 2.30 ERA in 101 games since the start of 2011, the second-lowest mark by a National League left-hander.

"Those guys have been phenomenal in the first half," Sveum said. "Without those two guys, we would've been in a lot of trouble. The combination of both of them has been tremendous. They've been consistent all season long. To have the numbers they have, and handle a position they've been put in [that they aren’t used to] speaks volumes for what they've done for this team this year." — cubs.com

Both players have been worth .3 fWAR while Russell has been worth .6 rWAR and Camp has been worth .7 rWAR. They've each had good seasons, but it annoys me when a manager picks a reliever as the team's MVP. I know the Cubs suck, but it's not the least bit true that one of these two is the team's MVP. The two of them combined are not the MVP either. 

I'm not sure what team Sveum is watching, but WITH those two guys in they're in a lot of trouble. With everyone on their roster they're in a lot of trouble. 

Here are the players on the Cubs who have a higher fWAR this season: Alfonso Soriano (2.1), Starlin Castro (1.9), Ryan Dempster (1.9), Jeff Samardzija (1.8),  Bryan LaHair (1.2), Darwin Barney (1.2), Matt Garza (.9), Paul Maholm (.7), Anthony Rizzo (.7), Reed Johnson (.5), Tony Campana (.5), David DeJesus (.4).

And here are the guys who have a higher rWAR: Darwin Barney (3.6), Starlin Castro (2.8), Ryan Dempster (2.3), Travis Wood (1.2), Anthony Rizzo (.9), Alfonso Soriano (.9), Tony Campana (.8), Bryan LaHair (.8).

I don't think there's much doubt that the MVPs of this team have been Starlin Castro and Ryan Dempster. 

Daily, er, Monthly Facepalm – 5.31.12

Cubs slip from last place

The Cubs sweep of the Padres puts them one game behind in the race for the #1 pick. The Cubs are tied with the Twins for the second pick.

Buried in this Hobbitton Times article about the sweep was a nugget about Ryan Dempster putting a hole in the wall next to his locker after his poor start. ZOMG, he's so emotional and out of control. Time to start concern trolling him about needing a psychologist, right Paul?

Sveum ♥ Mather

Dale Sveum continues to bat Joe Mather third in the order. Joe Mather. 

"I thought I'd put somebody in there that might juice the team with a home run, or a three-run homer or two-run double, something like that. Just going to see if he can spark the team now and do some things," Sveum said. "Since I've put him in there, he's pretty much had a quality at-bats, hit some balls really hard right at people."

Mather has the second highest SLG on the team. Arranging a Cubs lineup this season is pretty much just deckchair rearranging, but Joe Mather's hot tear to start the season has only managed to drag up his wOBA projection to .300, just a hair behind Darwin Barney. I think he should definitely be in the lineup against LHP, but ugh. (via Muskat + Kruth)

Tweets from the other day

Is that like saying cause/effect?

So many levels. That a guy who was DFA'd in spring training is our MVP, that the offense sucks, and that Dale Sveum thinks a middle reliever is the most valuable pitcher on the team.

Phil Rogers suggests a Soriano landing spot

Apparently Travis Hafner is injured again. It's probably only news at this point if Hafner is *not* injured. Cleveland is playing well in a division that was supposed to be dominated by the Tigers and could be interested in a "suddenly" power hitting DH. This isn't that much of a surprise though, aside from his defensive resurgance pretty much all that's left of Soriano's game is his power. Offensively he's the reverse of the empty batting average hitter – instead of a zillion singles with no walks and xbh, most of his (small) offensive value is just hitting HRs. I do wonder how much DHing could help him at the plate though – he's clearly been hurting for weeks now in the OF without getting any relief.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

Cubs work out possible first round pick

Carlos Correa worked out at Wrigley yesterday. He's a 17 year old SS from Puerto Rico. I bet he and Geovany Soto know each other, since it's just a small island and everyone knows each other /GROTA Rob. Sveum himself threw BP to Correa. He might not drop to the Cubs – Klaw thinks the O's will grab him at 4.

Anthony Rizzo back soon

According to Brett at Bleacher Nation, Rizzo is expected to return from his sore wrist today.

Jason McLeod spoke to the media yesterday

Brett was all over it. Summary of his summary: the Cubs are looking for pitching, Rizzo is in "finishing stages".