Tag: starling marte

Cubs to call up Albert Almora, Jorge Soler to DL?

It won't be surprising, but Jorge Soler could head to the DL with a left hamstring injury before today's game. Word is that Albert Almora is on his way to Philadelphia to replace him on the roster if that move to the DL is needed. 

Cubs No. 5 prospect Albert Almora is on his way to join the team in Philadelphia on Tuesday, and he will likely be activated if left fielder Jorge Soler goes on the disabled list, according to a baseball source.

The Cubs have not commented on the potential move, which was first reported by MLB Network's Jon Heyman.

Almora was the first draft pick selected by the new front office of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod. Huge expectations have followed him throughout the system, but those expectations have thankfully been spread around to many players. Cubs fans weren't able to pin their team's future hopes on just one or two guys as in the past. The Cubs had a ton of prospects,  many of which we saw with the Cubs last year and this year. Almora's addition would just be another one of those top prospects joining the already young Cubs roster. 

Almora hasn't put up the impressive offensive numbers that some of the other prospects did. His numbers are no match for Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber or Jorge Soler. You'd think they'd be more comparable to what Addison Russell was doing, but they're not. Addison Russell was the far superior offensive performer in the minor leagues. 

The scouting reports have always suggested he's among the best outfield defenders in baseball though. He'll have one of the game's best in Jason Heyward to work with in Chicago if he sticks around. 

A lot of people soured on Almora after last season, but I was impressed with how a player so young improved in nearly every way. The overall numbers didn't blow your mind, but they were good and they were great when you consider his age. Last year in AA he hit .272/.327/.400 with a wOBA of .336 and a wRC+ of 105. The year before in his late season 144 PA at AA he had hit only .234/.250/.355 (.273, 64). Prior to that in 2015 in A+ he hit .283/.306/406 (.324, 100). He posted the highest walk rate in his career along with the lowest strikeout rate since 2012. 

I'll talk more about the walk rates below, but this season he's really hit the ball well. He's hit .318/.335/.444 and has a .343 wOBA and 107 wRC+. A .351 BABIP has helped him out, but when you put as many balls in play as he does, you're going to get some luck from time to time. 

Baseball America did not have Almora ranked in their top 100 prospects for the first time entering this season. He was the 6th ranked prospect in the Cubs organization. From Baseball America:

Almora played for six USA Baseball amateur teams from 2007-11 before the Cubs drafted him sixth overall in 2012, passing on the likes of Michael Wacha and Marcus Stroman while signing Almora for $3.9 million. He interrupted his season at Double-A Tennessee with another stint for Team USA, this time in the Pan American Games in Toronto, where he helped the Americans win a silver medal. In terms of tools, Almora is who he is–a contact-oriented hitter with strong forearms and wrists who has a knack for making contact and avoiding strikeouts. He has improved his selectivity but still doesn't get to his raw power as consistently as scouts would like, and he's an average runner who doesn't walk or steal enough bases to be a leadoff hitter. His bat control and bat speed help him catch up to good velocity. He remains a special defender in center fielder with premium anticipation, instincts and ball-hawking ability, as well as a strong, accurate arm. A grinder with great makeup who is regarded as an excellent teammate, Almora came on strong after his Team USA stint, hitting .302 after his return. He profiles as an everyday center fielder in the Aaron Rowand mold, and with Dexter Fowler a free agent, center field is actually a lineup spot that may be available in Chicago in the short-term.

He may figure to be the Cubs CF of the future, but I have a hard time believing that Dexter Fowler would re-sign with the Cubs without assurances they'd leave him in CF. After all, Fowler is trying to increase his value as a free agent and moving to LF is not going to help. Fowler also wants to win so I guess it won't be terribly surprising, but my bet is that Almora learns the ropes in MLB as a left fielder and that's just fine. Starling Marte is the Pirates LF and he is the better fielder between he and Andrew McCutchen. Left field is a bit different at PNC park, but putting Almora in LF is a good way to acclimate him to MLB. 

MLB.com ranked Almora 5th in the Cubs organization and 80th overall. Here's what they have to say about Almora:

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 65 | Overall: 55

Almora had the reputation of being one of the most advanced high school position players in recent years, having played for six U.S. national teams before signing for $3.9 million as the sixth overall pick in the 2012 Draft. He hasn't progressed as fast as hoped in pro ball, however, battling injuries in 2013 and struggling in 2014 before posting a steady if unspectacular season in Double-A last summer. He played on the silver medal-winning U.S. Pan American Games team in July, his record seventh appearance with Team USA.

Almora's defense has been as good as advertised. Though he has just average speed, his keen instincts, quick jumps and precise routes allow him to track down most balls in center field. He also has a strong, accurate arm that keeps baserunners in check.

At the plate, Almora excels at making contact but has yet to demonstrate that he can contribute much beyond hitting for average. He has yet to tap into his average raw power, rarely walks and won't steal many bases. His ceiling is probably a .280 hitter with 15 homers per year, and he'll have to develop more patience to reach it.

The inability to do much beyond hitting for average is what scares me. Almora really has an issue with taking walks. He's walking in only 3.1% of his plate appearances this season. He only struckout in 12.8% of them so he's going to put the ball in play. I had hoped last year's 7.1% walk rate was the start of something for him, but it doesn't appear it was. Below are his walk rates in the minors with plate appearances.

  • 2012 R: 2.5%, 80
  • 2012 A-: 0.0%, 65
  • 2013 R (fall league): 5.1%, 79
  • 2013 A: 6.3%, 272
  • 2014 A+: 3.1%, 385
  • 2014 AA: 1.4%, 144
  • 2015 AA: 7.1%, 451
  • 2016 AAA: 3.1%, 226

Despite hitting very well this season in AAA, Steamer is still not overly impressed with his offensive skills. Steamer is projecting Almora to hit .260/.290/.378 with a .290 wOBA and an 80 wRC+. It's projecting a 3.8% walk rate and a 14.6% strikeout rate. If Almora has a higher BABIP, those numbers will be higher. Steamer is projecting a roughly league average .289 BABIP, but I think it's reasonable to think that Almora might be able to beat that. He didn't in his last two stops in the minor leagues before AAA, but I'm an optimist. 

My prediction: .275/.300/.390, .300 wOBA, 86 wRC+

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (0-0) at Pittsburgh Pirates (0-0)

seriespreview

Baseball season we are in you!

The Cubs open up against last year's surprise (ish) team, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They finished at 94-68 last year, beat the Reds in the inagural NL wild card game, and took the eventual champions to the full five games in the NLDS. They had no answer for Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals fireballing bullpen, but in their defense, no one else really did either. It remains to be seen if they'll repeat their first trip to the playoffs in two decades. 

Team Overviews

These are the 2013 numbers, with NL ranking in parentheses.

  Cubs Pirates
wRC+ 87 (14th) 98 (5th)
BSR -8.7 (12th) 2.2 (5th)
UZR 37.3 (2nd) 4.4 (8th)
DRS 20 (7th) 68 (2nd)
SP FIP- 103 (10th) 94 (3rd)
RP FIP- 109 (14th) 91 (5th)

The big storyline for the Pirates last year was their bullpen, led by Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon. They had five relievers with more than 50 innings and a sub-3 ERA, and had an overall ERA-FIP split of roughly half a run. It's a safe bet that their bullpen will regress, the only question is how much. 

The other hurdle for them to repeat their playoff trip is their starting staff. A.J. Burnett was the best pitcher on the staff last year, and after flirting with retirement for a while he ended up signing with the Philadelpha Pensioners, which was kind of a head scratcher. However, it's not too much of a stretch to expect the slack to be picked up by Wandy Rodriguez, who missed half of last season, the first full season of the electric Gerrit Cole, and rookie Jameson Taillon, who could be a big contributor once they realize that Edinson Volquez's eternal quest to win the ROY is not a great plan.

News, notes, blood oaths, etc

The Pirates signed OF Starling Marte to a 6/31 deal, buying out the rest of his service time and one free agent year. Marte is a quality above-average OF and this looks like a great deal for the Pirates.

Barry Bonds and Jim Leyland will be on hand to present the NL MVP award to Andrew McCutchen. 

The Angels signed Mike Trout to a 6/144.5 extension, buying out his arb years and three FA years. Trout gets a pile of money and hits the market again at 29 for even more money. It was pretty funny seeing everyone on twitter excoriating Trout and/or his agent for leaving so much money on the table. Something tells me he's going to make a lot more money anyway.

Speaking of extensions, the Tigers signed nearly-31-year-old Miguel Cabrera to a 8-year, $248m contract that pissed off every other front office in baseball. There are even vesting options that could pay him for two more years at another $30m each in his age 40 and 41 seasons. The biggest question here is why they felt the burning need to do this so soon. Was it to spite Max Scherzer or something? They still have Cabrera under control for 2 more seasons, and they'll have a much better idea what kind of player he'll be in 2020 after a year or two. 

Some things stay the same from year to year:

Injury updates

Pirates opening day starter Francisco Liriano had some tightness in his groin in his last spring training start (there's a joke there somewhere). He threw a simulated game later in the week and was cleared for opening day, but there's always a chance it might flare up again. Pirates P Jeff Locke was bothered by an oblique strain all spring training and starts the season on the DL. 

For the Cubs, former Pirate James McDonald was put on the 60 day DL with his shoulder injury. Surprisingly, Kyuji Fujikawa was placed on the 15 day rather than the 60 day DL. The training staff must be pleased with his TJ recovery and he might be back before late May. Jake Arrieta begins the season on the DL but likely won't be there long. He threw a 50 pitch simulated game last week. Starlin Castro is returning from the strained hamstring he suffered early in spring training, but has been running and fielding normally for the past week and should be ready to go.

Probable Pitchers

ZiPS projected ERA and FIP are listed for each pitcher

Monday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.56, 3.45) vs Francisco Liriano, LHP (3.13, 3.12), 12:05 PM CT

Shark's last two opening days: 16.2 IP, 3 R, 17 K, 1 BB. Hopefully we see more of the same today.

As mentioned above, Liriano is shouldering the load as the staff leader with Burnett on the other end of the PA turnpike. Durability has been a big problem for Liriano over the course of his career, having made 30+ starts in only one season. Following back to back 5+ ERA years in 2011 and 2012, and a broken arm in the offseason, the Pirates signed him to a 1 year, 1 million 'prove it' deal loaded with incentives. His option vested based on DL time last year, and the Pirates have him for around $6m this year. The projection systems all seem to believe in him this year, projecting him at around 2.5 WAR for the year.

Wednesday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (3.99, 3.70) vs Charlie Morton, RHP (4.01, 4.06), 6:05 PM CT

I'm really hoping for a bounceback year for Jackson this year. He was the victim of some awful luck/variance last year, leading the majors in strand rate (63.3%) and had a .322 BABIP. He managed to drag his ERA to just below 5 by the end of the year, but finished with a FIP of 3.79. He also saw a drop in his pitch velocity last year, which is somewhat worrisome but also not really that surprising since that's something that regresses with age anyway, and I have no idea how to quantify it. I am pretty disappointed in the FO calling this deal a 'mistake', unless they mean it was a mistake that they didn't go harder after Anibal Sanchez.

Morton was injured in 2012 and missed most of the season. He came back to make 20 starts for the Pirates  last year, and posted a 3.26 ERA. Morton is a worm-killing machine, posting GB/FB of 3.10, 2.50, 3.37 over the past three seasons. In the offseason, the Pirates signed him to a 3/21 deal which looks pretty good. 

Thursday: Jason Hammel, RHP (4.01, 4.05) vs Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (3.63, 3.85), 11:35 PM CT

Hammel is clearly this year's Scott Feldman, except that unlike Feldman his peripherals were pretty shitty the year before the Cubs signed him. He's pitched in a lot of tough environments over the course of his career. He pitched surprisingly well in his first two seasons with the Rockies, posting a 3.70 FIP over that period…but a not so pretty ERA. Moving to the AL east in 2012 he posted a 3.43 ERA/3.29 FIP in the best division in baseball. It did not go so well last year, so now he'll get to pitch at Wrigley Field. With his luck the wind will be blowing out in every start. 

Wandy has always been one of my favorite pitchers, due to the epynomous Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame, which consists of players who gave me a bad first impression that it took me a long time to shake. I remember when he was a rookie making spot starts with the Astros, he was awful. Then later when he was just mowing down the Cubs lineup I'd always shake my head that they were being beat by Wandy Fing Rodriguez. Wandy was banged up for most of the season and made the fateful trip to see Dr. Andrews last summer but actually got good news on his forearm problems. He was also diagnosed with arthritis in his elbow which might still be bothering him. He has my second favorite curveball in baseball, behind only Sean Marshall's. 

 

It's baseball time again.