Tag: tom ricketts

Dreamcast 98: Turkey Day Musings

With Turkey Day around the corner, we jabronis got together to talk about the MLB awards, speculate on what’s going to happen with Juan Soto’s ridiculous contract-to-be, and explore the trade speculation surrounding Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger. Also some discussion on what Jed Hoyer needs to do to keep his job past 2025, plus bonus Bears talk.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

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Dreamcast 97: Buy In

RC and AC hang out to talk about team building, Jed Hoyer’s job security, the offseason approach, and fangirl over the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won the World Series. If things actually happen quick we may emergency pod, but things seem slow for now so we wait.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

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The Quest to Exceed Mediocrity

The Dodgers overcame their bajillion injuries thanks to the talent they amassed with a very enviable and ludicrous payroll. We can’t even poo poo that because it’s kind of what we wish the Cubs would do, and while the Cubs aren’t the Pirates or the A’s, there is a gulf between their payroll and those at the top. Granted, a few of those teams up top may want to trim payroll, but that isn’t the only reason why they made the playoffs and the Cubs did not. It probably isn’t what Tom Ricketts wants, but the Cubs payroll has exceeded the $230MM threshold (that’s the entire 40-man roster considerations) the past two seasons, and they did it in 2019 too before the “biblical losses” and that whole pandemic thing that really sucked. So while the team probably isn’t ever going to spend at what the New York teams do for reasons, to say they won’t spend is inaccurate. The issue is that the money spent needs to be translated into MLB wins, so that’s what Jed Hoyer and friends have to figure out in their final year under contract (or at least Jed’s, I don’t know how long the other nerds are signed for).

This is going to be a lot of surface level math but we can ballpark what the Cubs can do and let the front office army of accounting interns figure out the actual numbers themselves, hopefully they do it without “accidentally” triggering the competitive balance tax, but rather they should do it intentionally. HOwever, that’s not in my control so I just hope whatever they do actually works. Cots contracts suggests that the Cubs are projected for about $189MM in guarantees without any more additions but taking into account the arbitration raises if everyone arbitration eligible was tendered. This is also now including Cody Bellinger, who opted in to the 2025 portion of his contract. The first CBT threshold in 2025 is $241MM, giving them about $51MM to play with before they trigger the tax again. Based on the way the contracts were set up, the guaranteed payroll will drop significantly over the next few years coinciding with the negotiations for the next collective bargaining agreement, which will help them get back under the CBT and reset if they intend to blow past this coming season and next to supplement what is a solid team.

I don’t think all the guys on the arbitration eligible list will be retained, and a couple have moved on to new teams from the last time MLBTR looked at this, so you can probably add a few extra million to the piggy bank the Cubs get to crack open for this offseason. As indicated last time, we probably find out who’s going to get tossed off the 40-man roster to make room for Rule 5 and the offseason additions by Monday. Then we find out who’s going to cost the Cubs a draft pick or two if they do sign them in free agency as that’s also when qualifying offers are extended. It will be a pretty busy time for front offices to figure out where they stand before Thanksgiving.

What I decided to do with my napkin math was to consider how the Cubs are set up now. It really depends on your confidence level, but there was enough to convince me that there is in fact talent on this team as currently constructed, and also that running it all back isn’t enough. I imagine that a lame duck front office isn’t going to just sit on their hands, but there’s evidence that this team should be better than their 83-win 2024. The Pythagorean record based on run differential suggested the Cubs were extremely unlucky, winning five fewer than their expected 88 wins. Looking at the team overall, it was a surprise (though not really since he was still an elite defender) to see Dansby Swanson racking up 4.3 wins above replacement, then an oft-hurt Nico Hoerner at 3.9, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both at 3.6, and even Pete Crow-Armstrong almost reached the mythical 3 WAR mark despite not having been with the team the whole year. Bellinger had a slumpy year by his standards (probably why he opted in) but still played well enough to hit above average and accumulate 2.2 WAR. The pitchers were also quite solid, although of course they could have used more help in the bullpen at many times throughout the season.

With my napkin math and the FanGraphs stats, assuming a replacement level team wins 48 games, the Cubs position player group had 22.5 WAR and the pitchers had 14.0 WAR, so that is about where they ended up at the 83-win mark (depending on how generously you decide to round), so I guess the 2024 squad did about what should have been expected given their WAR. The Cubs were middle of the pack in both offense (ranked by wRC+) and pitching (ranked by ERA-) so again that is about right for where they ended up record-wise. What we can hope for going forward is that, given the good group of 3+ WAR players, some guys who have track records suggesting they can be that and better, and eliminating a few guys who won’t be useful going forward, not to mention the eight top-100 prospects, many of whom are in Iowa now, that is enough to at least maintain that baseline of 83 wins if not exceed it. With Craig Counsell already in the front office’s ear about new coaches (and hopefully a new training staff that can help the players stay healthy), they just need to find a way to score seven more runs than 2024 to virtually guarantee a postseason berth, since the final wild cards had 89 wins in a strangely loaded National League field.

If it were me, I’d try to do the following:

  • At least one top starter (maybe two?) to push Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon (if he’s not traded) down the line. I loved what Shota did and Steele was fine when he was healthy, but the rotation gets even better if they’re not the de facto aces.
  • Upgrade catcher so Miguel Amaya doesn’t feel any pressure and there’s no urgency to rely on Moises Ballesteros to both hit and catch at the MLB level.
  • At least one good bat regardless of handedness who can theoretically also stand at a defensive position and not embarrass himself.
  • Probably two established relievers to bolster the bullpen now that they’re parting ways with former Cubs legend Drew Smyly.

Any one of those bullets by themselves might be able to snag an extra couple wins, but all of them together would potentially make up that seven-win gulf and then some to get the Cubs back to the playoffs in 2025. This is dependent on a lot of things, including whether Ricketts wants to significantly exceed the CBT to supplement a solid core, but with that core, about $60MM to spend, and a few teams already saying they’re going to retool or ratchet back spending, the Cubs might be in the driver seat for most deals not involving Juan Soto. They just have to make it happen.

Stuff From Tom Ricketts

Hey kids! Tom Ricketts sent us an email! Let’s have fun with it!

Oct 11, 2024
Cubs Fans,

There is no way to sugarcoat it – this is not where we planned to finish the season. Like our fans, we had high expectations for our team this year and early victories delivered hope for postseason baseball. But inconsistent play and injuries upended that promise, leading us into a hole too deep to recover from despite another second half surge. Bottom line, we did not play a complete season of competitive baseball. As a result, we have again missed the most exciting and exhilarating month of the season – October.

I think we’ve all lamented the injuries that derailed the season, but the almost two months of slumping was way worse than any of us could have imagined. Given how fun the postseason has been so far, hell yeah we would have loved to see the Cubs in it even if they probably get bounced in the wild card anyway. Or maybe they would’ve caught lightning in a bottle, who knows? But we certainly won’t find out this year.

The work is underway to close the gap to make the Cubs a perennial playoff team. Our baseball operations staff is redoubling its efforts to build a team that consistently plays in the postseason and delivers the promise of sustained success to Cubs fans.

There were statements from various Cubs, Craig Counsell, and Jed Hoyer that at least suggest they will do SOMETHING. That is TBD, we will find out more once the World Series ends, free agency begins, and the qualifying offer stuff shakes out.

Though we fell short this season, we have strong foundations to build on.

Jed, Carter and our team of coaches, analysts, scouts and strategists have created one of the top player development groups in the game today – with eight prospects on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list – the most of any team in Major League Baseball. After this summer’s draft, the Cubs boast a top-flight player development system in most independent rankings, including #2 in USA TODAY’s latest evaluation.

The challenge, as always, is to translate that raw talent into major league wins, but the task is generally easier when your minor league talent has a high floor and (at this point) near-limitless ceiling.

Under the leadership of manager Craig Counsell, we continued to see players develop on the major league level. Rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga, who signed as a free agent last offseason, had one of the best seasons as a rookie pitcher in Cubs history, leading the team with 15 wins, a 2.91 ERA, 174 strikeouts and only 28 walks. He steered the way on a memorable September night at Wrigley Field where his seven hitless innings kicked off a combined no-hitter that was closed out by Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge. Rookie Michael Busch secured a starting role at first base and slugged 21 homers with a .775 OPS. Fellow rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong brought excitement to the basepaths with six triples and a 93-percent stolen base rate. PCA also kept runs off the board with his electrifying defense. Additionally, veteran Ian Happ had a career year with personal bests in home runs (25) and RBIs (86) and continues to be a clubhouse leader.

We see a list of all the really cool performances we all enjoyed this past season, and I like the last part where Tom reminds us that despite all the fan hate, Ian Happ really isn’t that bad.

Before we turn the page on this season, I also want to thank you for helping us recognize Ryne Sandberg this year. For many of us, Ryno’s play defined an era, and his statue unveiling was a once-in-a-lifetime tribute to a true Cubs legend. Ryne and Margaret are forever a part of our Cubs family, and it was important for us to stand in support of his fight against cancer by hosting Cubs for a Cure this year, which helped raise $1 million to battle this terrible disease.

We also remain committed to making a positive impact in the community through Cubs Charities. This year, more than 17,000 students participated in our youth sports and academic programs in neighborhoods across Chicago.

It is these special moments and activities on and off the field that bring the players and fans together to remind us of what we all love about Cubs baseball.

It was really cool to see Ryne Sandberg make good progress against his cancer, seems he is going to be just fine. Naturally the Cubs continue to support the community, and I found out this summer that the softball fields I used to play in were upgraded very nicely by a generous grant from the organization. I think Jason Heyward still supports the community through his charitable work as well despite no longer being a Cub. Your mileage may vary as to how much more the Cubs (and other very wealthy people) can do, but it’s better than nothing.

It is more than a game – it is a tradition that spans decades, with our fans at its heart and soul. You bring an excitement to the ballpark that is as time-honored as the ivy-lined walls and historic scoreboard. I want to personally express my sincere gratitude for your continued loyalty to our team.

Now, it is time for us to get to work to bring championship caliber baseball back to Wrigley Field.

Sincerely,

Tom Ricketts

I think the Cubs had a pretty solid attendance number this year, though they are expected to raise ticket prices because reasons. I’m sure people will continue to pay to justify those increases, much to our chagrin (for those of us who are peasants like me), but it is pretty inevitable. We will wait and see what they actually do, but for now it’s a good time to peruse the free agent list while exploring fake trades in our fantasies. However, the Cubs are in the fortunate position where they’re in charge of their own television rights and revenues, and aren’t selling the team like some folks, so at least there’s some stability that will allow them to make some moves should they choose to do so.

All is Lost

I’ve been diligently looking for work and have some interviews here and there, hopefully something sticks soon. And I guess the timing is good for when I start an eventual new job because the Cubs’ season is over:

The Cubs now sit at 79-76 on the season. The Diamondbacks and Mets currently hold the last 2 National League Wild-Card spots with the Braves still challenging behind them in the standings.

“It was a tough year, obviously,” Kyle Hendricks said after Saturday’s loss. “Just up-and-down. It just seemed like we’d catch steam and then couldn’t maintain it.

“Just a really up-and-down year. Not surprising we’re at about .500. Just how it went for us this year. When we played our good baseball, played fundamental, we could beat anybody. But we just couldn’t put it together for the full year this year.”

Marquee Sports Network

Technically there are a week of games remaining, including the finale against the Nationals that has yet to be played as I clickety-clack, but (soon-to-be former) Cubs World Series hero Kyle Hendricks is correct in that the lack of consistency and the absolutely putrid months of May and June (seriously, what was up with that) killed the season. It’s a disappointment on many levels for a team we all thought could make some noise at the beginning of the year. At least they weren’t eliminated in like July like certain other Chicago-area teams.

As the Cubs play out the string, it was interesting to see Craig Counsell and Jameson Taillon address the fact that they were so far behind the Milwaukee Brewers (seriously, who saw this gap coming?) and how they really needed to work to catch up. Taillon reiterated the need to generate a 90-win team at minimum. Whether we expected the Brewers to be this good, or whether they deserve to be this good, is immaterial, as the Cubs could have and should have done more to address the flaws that we were all witness to during this season. I think there are plenty of positives to take into the next season, including how they did make a late season surge again (a bit too little and too late, of course), but as Counsell implied, some difficult decisions will be made as Jed Hoyer enters his final guaranteed season as president of baseball operations.

I can say with some level of certainty that guys like Kyle Hendricks (sad face) and Drew Smyly (meh) won’t be back. Whether Cody Bellinger opts out or not is up in the air, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong maturing into the everyday center fielder, Bellinger’s value if he stayed on the Cubs may take a hit, so that is worth monitoring as the offseason draws closer. I’m going to take an educated guess that the Cubs also upgrade their bench, at the minimum, and find a way to get more consistent relievers although we all know that bullpen arms are volatile.

The important thing is to raise the projection in the offseason, as this team will max out at 86 wins if they run the table in the remaining time. That is probably highly unlikely as they are hard pressed to sweep a Phillies club that needs to compete for the top seed, and a Reds team with very little to lose and some bright spots of their own, but as many have lamented throughout 2024, if a few of the saves hadn’t been blown and if a few more hits had dropped, things would be really different. So the issue is not only the projection, but luck and preparation. Whoever joins the club, whether it is a promotion from the minors, a trade, or a free agent signing, needs to be onboarded effectively. Slumps need to be nipped faster. Struggles need to be addressed with more urgency. I don’t envy the people in charge who have to deal with it.

Ricketts was selling Cubs Convention tickets pretty recently, so as we wait for the regular season to end and watch another World Series without the Cubs, let’s hope they give us something to be excited about in what we hope to be the inflection point of this “retool” period. Baseball is better when the Cubs are in the playoffs, and while I am thankful that they played meaningful games almost into the final week of the season, there is a lot of work to do to get them back into the dance.

Dreamcast 83: O Hai Lisa

RC and AC talk about the big thing that happened when we were all supposed to be asleep, and some stuff about Christopher Morel, Tom Ricketts, our expectations for this season, and more.

You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.

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Tom Ricketts Talks Shop

Looks like Tom Ricketts has seen fit to talk to the media today. My vantage point is that the Cubs have drawn their line in the sand, and Scott Boras has drawn his, now they just have to compromise because Ricketts won’t undermine Jed Hoyer by directly negotiating with Boras. It also does sound like he would very much prefer Cody Bellinger return to the club.

Here’s some snippets from Meghan:

There might be more as she tacks on but you can click through if you wish.

Just a quick add-on re: intelligent spending:

Delayed Gratification, Or Why Haven’t the Cubs Spent Money Yet?

There are a million things we can probably rehash about the whole thing where Shohei Ohtani basically wasted everyone’s time, but aside from acknowledging that the most consequential free agent in MLB history was the rate-limiting reagent for the offseason reaction here, let’s not do that rehash and instead figure out what the Cubs are doing (or not doing). Of course, we have to also say that we can’t tell the Cubs what to do (as the front office led by Jed Hoyer has implied many times before). And finally, we also must note that it would be somewhat disingenuous and foolhardy to just assume Craig Counsell can squeeze a few extra wins out of this club that might be without Cody Bellinger (if he doesn’t re-sign with the Cubs, as is rumored to be his preference).

Why So Slow?

This isn’t just the Cubs, by the way…it’s a lot of MLB that hasn’t really done much, and there are a lot of names still on the board to welcome to the North Side (or elsewhere, because not everyone will or should be signed by the Cubs). Here’s a fun Passan tweet:

If you click through, you’ll see the Cubs have spent $0 in MLB free agency (the minor league deals don’t count even if they might turn out to be impactful), and given that they had a huge deal on the table that they probably just abandoned because they knew Ohtani wouldn’t seriously consider, they theoretically have a lot of money. They could push to next year, but that again would be dumb particularly if you don’t trust PCA to hit right away and there are multiple positions that need to be upgraded. Me being the eternal optimist, there is most likely a plan in the works, they just haven’t fully executed it yet.

It is also noteworthy that among the teams that haven’t spent, a few of them include the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Yankees, two of which are rumored to be in on big free agents, and the other is a Jerry DiPoto trade blitz away from being interesting. The Cubs have been linked either by concrete reports or by quantum string theory to said big free agents, including Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and their own (hopefully non-departed) Cody Bellinger. The issue is probably just agent maneuvering and haggling with front offices to maximize their client pay, which they absolutely should do, even if we’re bored as hell.

The Timing

As of this writing, we are at December 17, a week from Christmas, even though Jed Hoyer isn’t Christian so he probably wouldn’t care, but many free agents are so maybe they try to get something done. However, pitchers and catchers don’t need to officially report to Spring Training until around Valentine’s Day, and players a few days after, so there is time to get stuff done.

I went back and looked at some big signings I can recall and when in the offseason it happened. Keep in mind that as analytical front offices have become more prevalent, there may be a bit of schmollusion going on, but at some point a team knows they want a guy and they need to pay up, so perhaps it isn’t as big of a deal as I joke about.

  • Alfonso Soriano – I thought he was a perfectly fine player, warts and all, he just kind of aged poorly and couldn’t lay off those frisbee sliders. Anyway, he signed on 11/20/2006 before the Cubs won back-to-back NL Central titles, which was earlier than I thought but maybe they just wanted to get it over with before Thanksgiving.
  • Milton Bradley – ironically one of the reasons I found this here website, the much-maligned mercurial outfielder signed on 1/9/2009 so at least one major signing so far has taken until the new year before being finalized.
  • Edwin Jackson – I’m sure many are still annoyed with this particular signing, EJax signed on 1/2/2013 and hey, he did his best and he’s an Immaculate Grid Hall of Famer. By the way, Kyuji Fujikawa (remember him?) signed a month before on 12/7/2012.
  • Jon Lester – this is the first evidence of the Cubs hype video working to snag a marquee free agent, as Jon signed on 12/15/2014. Objectively, this is the best Cubs free agent contract of all time.
  • Jason Heyward – the Cubs paid handsomely for the most impactful speech in postseason history as Heyward signed one year after Lester did on 12/15/2015. John Lackey signed a week before Heyward did, by the way, as did Ben Zobrist (after the Cubs cleared some money or something with the Starlin Castro trade).
  • Yu Darvish – Berselius’ favorite pitcher was signed after I guess his market cratered a bit and he needed to be somewhere before spring training, on 2/13/2018.
  • Craig Kimbrel – To skirt the QO, the Cubs waited until after the Draft and signed Kimbrel on 6/7/2019, as an example of a deal that could happen in-season if, say, Matt Chapman somehow found himself unemployed by Draft time, which would be more difficult now that the Draft happens during All-Star weekend.
  • Seiya Suzuki – I don’t know if he posted late or something, or maybe it was because of the lockout, but Seiya signed officially on 3/18/2022. The other Japanese stars coming over don’t have that long as they are already posted and they only have the 45 days, so expect guys like Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, etc. to be signed by early to mid-January.
  • Dansby Swanson – our most recent big fish signed on 12/21/2022. Just for fun, I looked it up and Trea Turner signed on 12/8, Xander Bogaerts signed on 12/9, and Carlos Correa finally signed the following January because of the ankle time bomb thing. For those wondering why I forgot, Cody Bellinger officially signed the week before on 12/14.

Because MLB has no deadline (and really, they shouldn’t, because we don’t want to remove leverage from the players side), the next big signing could happen anywhere between now and Spring Training, so we don’t have much of a choice but to take a wait-and-see approach.

Whither Plan?

In our experience, the Cubs tend to keep things close to the chest and once details leak, the transaction is completed almost immediately afterwards. This was true when Theo Epstein was in charge, and appears to also be true under Jed Hoyer. The agents have to leak things to reporters to try to generate momentum for their clients, but Hoyer and friends are disciplined (probably to a fault, but maybe it serves them well) and basically seem like they just don’t care what Scott Boras or whoever is saying that might eventually be misquoted by a Bob Nightengale.

If you asked me to make a prediction (I kinda hate doing this because I’m risk-averse and I don’t really gamble), I’d say the player preference was to know where they stand before Christmas so we might see something happen before next weekend. Trades are also possible so there could be news on that front to augment this lineup, making it possible that the Cubs actually spend no free agent money but still improve the team substantially. You also never know if the Cubs already Zoomed with Yamamoto and invited him to the Winter Wonderland in a Santa costume. We don’t have any choice but to wait and it’ll happen. Or it won’t, it could go either way.

The “Deferred Spending” Plan

We’ve gotten to the part of the Winter Meetings where some news (like, actual maybe sort of legitimate news) might be finally leaking out and making the various beat folks confident enough to say that the Cubs are likely out on Shohei Ohtani (who’s probably going to be a Dodger but let’s wait and see) and Juan Soto (who looks to become a Yankee if they don’t screw this up). With Cody Bellinger possibly pricing himself out and no other free agents (at least those with a qualifying offer attached) that palatable (to me, anyway), the Cubs probably will work heavily in the trade market (another parenthetical just for fun).

I’ll probably look at trade possibilities and trade news as it happens, but the math from previously still works as the Cubs have spending space and money coming off the books by next offseason. There is a good core and floor to this team as currently constructed, which could be bolstered by quick one-year deals and trades, but what about that next offseason? And that isn’t to say they won’t do anything between now and Spring Training, as this division is imminently winnable with the Brewers possibly trading away their veterans, the Reds sort of stagnant even though they’ve added some solid rotation help, and the Cardinals doing whatever their plan is although they did add Sonny Gray to offset their other two acquisitions plus they might actually teach Willson Contreras how to catch.

Looking a bit forward, we have MLBTR’s free agent list for the 2024-2025 offseason, assuming nobody gets extended or decides to retire or go to Japan or whatever. The catchers (including Yan Gomes) seem like the type of deal to back up a still up-and-coming Miguel Amaya, so I’ll sort of ignore that and go for everything else. I feel like the only first baseman that would draw a competitive market would be Pete Alonso, although multiple Gold Glover Christian Walker could be a fun veteran signing.

With Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson sticking around for a few, it seems like the Cubs don’t need a starting-caliber middle infielder, but that shouldn’t stop them from finding someone for the bench. The problem is that I feel like even a guy like Brandon Drury would want to start, same with former Cubs prospect-turned-into-a-World-Series-title Gleyber Torres and super utility man Ha-Seong Kim. Would the Cubs just move one of them to third base? Or would they just sign an Alex Bregman, who would still be in his age 31 season at that point?

The outfield for the Cubs seems set for a while but that shouldn’t stop them from actually throwing some money at Juan Soto, and teach him how to play first base if necessary. That takes us to the pitching corps, and there are a ton of starters and relievers that would make sense and I definitely won’t go through them all, but that seems like a very good time to boost the rotation and supplement the bullpen depending on what they do in house. I suppose if it were up to me, and again depending on how Pitch Lab can churn out actual usable arms, I’d just let Pitch Lab fill the pitching staff and spend my money on some bats.

An Offseason Reset Before the World Series Ends

Depending on your point of view, because this is the last MLB action we will have until next Spring Training, but also because the offseason starts basically when the World Series ends, you either want one of the teams still in it to win in five or for it to go the full seven. This means the start of true free agency will come anywhere between November 6 and 9 (nice), and then we have the awards season, the GM, owner, and Winter Meetings, and probably a rush of trades (as soon as just after the World Series ends) and free agent signings at some point when the floodgates open after the big dominos fall.

The Money Situation

Per our trusty Cots Contracts and their handy-dandy spreadsheet, the Cubs have not exceeded the competitive balance tax threshold since just before the big exodus of all our previous favorite players, which means with this new core and competitive window opening (we hope anyway), they can afford to exceed next year’s threshold to supplement their team as Tom Ricketts suggested in his letter to fans. How much they are willing to go over the top remains to be seen, but they don’t have as much money as Steve Cohen and they also weren’t insane like the Padres were (before their apparent need to trim budget due to some debt thing I don’t really understand because I’m not an accountant).

What we can say is that the projected 40-man payroll next season is just shy of $191MM, but that includes contract options for certain players that are likely to be declined for some and to be determined for others, plus arbitration salary estimates that most likely will fluctuate but seem pretty close to what MLBTR projected. The thresholds are as follows, with the associated penalties:

  • $233MM Base –> 20% tax surcharge for amount above Base
  • $257MM –> Additional 12% tax surcharge for amount above $257MM
  • $277MM –> Additional 42.5% tax surcharge for amount above $277MM, plus highest selection in draft moved back 10 places (unless they’re in the top six, but that’s a 2023 Mets situation and we don’t want that ever)
  • $297MM –> Additional 60% tax surcharge for amount above $297MM

Suffice it to say I don’t think most of us expect the Cubs to balloon payroll above $277MM. This puts the Cubs somewhere around $40MM before they hit that first threshold, and $80MM before they incur that draft penalty as well. As for the option guys:

Cody Bellinger – Belli most likely declines his end of the mutual option and enters free agency. Belli is also the only outgoing Cub likely to get the qualifying offer ($19.65MM) and will most likely reject it to snag the Cubs at least their compensatory pick (which is kind of late in the order but it’s better than nothing), although they’ll do their best to keep him around.

Kyle Hendricks – There are varying reports on how close/serious the Cubs are in extending Kyle to a new contract, however, the option for 2024 is $16MM and the buyout is $1.5MM, so that could eat up to $16MM of the available space before that first threshold.

Brad Boxberger – (dying laughing) but seriously, it sucks that he was hurt which may or may not have contributed to the sucking, but no, pay that $800K buyout and thank you for your (lack of) service.

Yan Gomes – This seems like an easy pickup, Yan was clutch in many situations on offense and proved to be a more than capable game manager for his pitchers, so there’s $6MM accounted for.

Marcus Stroman – This is tougher to call, because on the one hand, Stro could probably get more guaranteed money as a free agent even if his AAV drops, but on the other hand, he seems to like Chicago, so we kind of have to pencil in that $21MM owed. If he does opt out, which I would not object to one way or the other, then that’s money the Cubs can then throw at someone else.

Cleaning Up the Roster

There are a number of prospects who are about to become Rule 5 eligible, plus you have to make room for some of the dozens of free agents the Cubs are supposed to sign, so let’s take a look at the roster (MLB, Arizona Phil, plus assume if I don’t talk about them that they’re sticking on the roster because they’re key to the MLB club or elite prospects you don’t want to get rid of just yet):

It’s OK if you leave/are claimed/whatever or the Cubs outright you: Depending on their status per AZ Phil’s table, some of these guys could elect free agency of outrighted, but if I’m listing them here, then I personally don’t care because theoretically they’re being replaced by someone better anyway. This includes Boxberger, Jeimer Candelario, Bellinger, and Michael Fulmer (free agents anyway), Tyler Duffey and Shane Greene (random guys for the 2023 Sporcle). Of these, I would not object if Belli and Candyman stuck around due to a new contract.

The tougher calls: These are guys that could be useful or that the Cubs may want to keep for a bit to see if they can tinker with them, but could very well be dumped without too much of a sweat. I’m thinking of the 60-day IL guys like Nick Burdi (fireballer nipped by appendicitis), Codi Heuer and Ethan Roberts (grrr, elbows), Brandon Hughes (I assume it’s a knee thing still), Michael Rucker, and finally Caleb Kilian and Mark Leiter Jr from the pitching group (Kilian more than Leiter, as the latter was sort of useful until his offerings didn’t work anymore). Patrick Wisdom and Jared Young are probably expendable albeit having their potential uses, and it’s anyone’s guess what they might intend to do with Miles Mastrobuoni and Mike Tauchman, though the latter two seem to be on more solid ground.

This results in at least 29 spots taken up on the 40-man roster, so up to 11 spots are available for the Rule 5 draft, protecting a Rule 5 eligible prospect, or signing/trading for someone outside the organization.

Flexibility

With upwards of $80MM to spend in free agency and plenty of prospect capital to land an elite player in trade (o hai Juan Soto), the Cubs have plenty of avenues to competitiveness to supplement the core we’ve enjoyed watching for most of this past season. MLBTR still has their free agent list for this offseason, but other than a handful of pitchers (including Shohei Ohtani who can’t pitch right away) and Cody Bellinger, it’s rather uninspiring. At least all this gives us time to think about the players we’d like the Cubs to sign, and the picture gets more clear when the QO deadline passes on 11/14 and we get closer to the Winter Meetings.