Tag: tom ricketts

Tom Ricketts’ Letter to Fans

Presented without comment, we just got the customary after-season letter from the Cubs chairman, Tom Ricketts, and we can analyze this later but the gist is that they’re going to do stuff to compete again, I suppose.

Cubs Fans,

This wasn’t the way we wanted the season to end and every year we miss the playoffs is a difficult one. However, this season, where we dug ourselves an early hole and then played as well as anyone in the league only to fall just short of our goal, was particularly disappointing. That said, we took a major step forward in 2023 and look to build on it for next season.

Let me start by acknowledging and thanking you and all Cubs fans for the unwavering support you brought to the ballpark this season. Your energy helped fuel the team’s performance and created an incredible atmosphere at Wrigley Field.

Baseball was exciting as the team showed historic resilience. This was the first team in franchise history to reach 10 games over .500 after finding itself 10 games under .500 earlier in the season. This accomplishment was led by a combination of homegrown talent and veteran players who delivered All-Star caliber performances and fought to the very end.

What also happened for the team this year was the emergence of a new core and a new identity.

Justin Steele rose as a contender for the N.L. Cy Young Award, anchoring the pitching staff and finishing with 16 wins and a 3.06 ERA, the third-best ERA in the N.L. Seiya Suzuki was second in the N.L. with a .349 average in the season’s final two months. Ian Happ posted career marks in RBI (84), runs scored (86) and walks (99). Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner proved to be the elite up-the-middle defenders we envisioned entering the year. Swanson’s 18 defensive runs saved led all shortstops, while Hoerner’s .283 average was second and his 175 hits were third among all second basemen, not to mention his career-high 43 stolen bases. The addition of Cody Bellinger brought power and clutch hitting to the lineup as he finished in the N.L. top-10 in average (.307), slugging (.525) and OPS (.881) while providing outstanding defense in center field and at first base.

Our goal is to win championships.
While we are encouraged by many of the individual performances this year, almost making the playoffs is not success. As an organization, we need to build on our progress and become a team that can finish the race. To do that, we will continue to be active this offseason to supplement our roster and look for contributions from our pipeline of elite homegrown talent.

Over the long term, the key to winning championships is consistently competing for a place in the postseason. While baseball playoffs are not random events, they do allow all teams a reasonable chance of winning. To have a team that can play October baseball on a regular basis, it is critical we draft and develop a pipeline of young, talented players.

Our future is bright.
Recent investments in our player development organization are beginning to pay off and our farm system is ranked among the top five in MLB. While the teams in the system were generally successful, including Double-A Tennessee’s Southern League championship, what is important is we are producing players who will help us win at the major league level.

After several years where we failed to produce impactful pitching, this season’s young arms made significant contributions to the team in both starting and relief roles. While we anticipate further success from our current players, we also see a strong pipeline of pitching prospects on the horizon.

With respect to position players, Pete Crow-Armstrong was named the Minor League Defensive Player of the Year by MLB, and the Cubs now have six players in MLB​.​com’s top-100 prospect list.

We respect our past.
Without question, we have much to look forward to in the future. But as stewards of this organization, we also have a great responsibility to this iconic team. It’s why fans from across the world come to Wrigley Field to experience Cubs baseball. And why we will never lose sight of the history, heritage and tradition that make our beloved ballpark such a magical place.

This season, we were honored to welcome Cubs greats Shawon Dunston and Mark Grace as the newest members of the Cubs Hall of Fame. We were happy to announce Ryne Sandberg would be joining Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Fergie Jenkins, Ron Santo and Billy Williams on Statue Row. I remember watching Dunston, Grace and Sandberg from the bleachers, and celebrating their accomplishments brought back special memories that I know so many of you cherish as well.

Of course, no recap of the 2023 season would be complete without acknowledging our great broadcaster and the longtime radio voice of the Chicago Cubs, Pat Hughes. As one of the best to ever enter the booth, Pat was the winner of the prestigious Ford C. Frick Award. Now, Pat will forever have his place alongside the other Cubs greats at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.

While the pain from our season finish still lingers, we know it’s time to move forward, and we can say with confidence that the future of the Cubs looks bright. Our experience this season will strengthen the organization, and we are positive we’ll arrive at Spring Training with an edge and the desire to finish the race in 2024.

Thank you to each and every Cubs fan for your continued support.

Tom

Tom Ricketts’ letter in email to Cubs fans

In summary:

  • Didn’t do as well as we would have liked
  • Will do more in offseason to improve team
  • Check out our farm system

The Plan, Revisited

I recall, nearly six months ago when the Cubs basically passed over every impact free agent save for Dansby Swanson (who was a consensus Plan B), we tried to figure out what the plan was even as the sound bytes were flying:

  1. There was a plan in place by Jed Hoyer and the front office with the blessing of ownership, but the marquee (pun intended) free agents decided that the Cubs were not in competition shape. This is probably bullshit because the Rangers threw a ton of money at Marcus Simien and Corey Seager and now Jacob deGrom and that team was trash for the past few seasons. Then the Giants, who aren’t in much better shape, threw all the money and years at Carlos Correa, so if they had the money, the free agents would come. Which brings us to…
  2. Jed had a plan, but it did not involve setting or matching the developing market. This is what I would call stubbornly stupid because the pieces available out there filled a need and the club (either for real or through smoke and mirrors) had the financial resources to make it so. And that suggests…
  3. Jed had a plan, and thought the money was there, but it was really smoke and mirrors after all.
From six months ago

The fear then was that this team would be hard pressed to go .500, but I guess most of us still had the rose-colored glasses on and wanted to believe that a team with a suspect offense could still get by with pitching and defense. And for a while it seemed to work through April, and then May happened and as of this writing, the Cubs have to win out to salvage their West Coast road trip. The thing is that despite being (by percentage points) the fourth-worst team in the NL, the Cubs are still somehow within 7.5 games of first place and 6.5 games back of that final wild card spot, with caveats that they still have to leapfrog all the teams in front of them, but this shouldn’t precipitate a hard sell off and we’ve argued that they should definitely not go full fire sale on the last Dreamcast.

I am unsure who to blame at this point. If this is a purely personnel problem, that’s on Jed Hoyer and/or Tom Ricketts (and various Ricketts siblings) for not ponying up the cash to really take advantage of what has turned out to be a terrible division in a so-so league. If it’s a performance problem where the players aren’t playing up to their potential (I still refuse to believe this is the true talent level, but I guess the projection systems have to be right sometimes), then that’s a David Ross problem and even with another year left on his contract, he probably needs to be replaced, particularly if he keeps putting out those weird lineups (but with Bellinger out and everyone scuffling and the bullpen being bad, what else can he do?).

What I will come back to is that they cannot sell. Marcus Stroman has that opt-out, and while he has been splendid and turned out being the undisputed number one on this staff, he shouldn’t be number one going forward. By trading Stroman, they’re going to have to replace number one AND number two, depending on if Jameson Taillon ever gets going or if Kyle Hendricks does enough to trigger that club option. There’s so much talent in the minors right now, even if it’s not on an Elly de la Cruz level, that they need to have a baseline for them to come up and thrive with a solid veteran presence.

As we’ve said for a while now, there’s still time for a turnaround, but time runs out at some point.

Cubs Opening Day 2023 Preview

Well, folks, after a month of generally entertaining (and brisk) Cactus League games, we have mere hours until first pitch on Opening Day at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers for a brief home opening series before they head on the road because schedules are wack, and while it is probably true that the Brewers still have a better team than *waves hands* whatever the Cubs have right now, a three-game set can go either way and I’ll be hoping for a Cubs sweep to give Kato Kaelin another aneurysm. There are a whole host of blogs in the archives I’m too lazy to backlink now but they’re there, and I’ll just rehash some of the previous talking points along with some new thoughts as we count down the hours until the defense takes the field. I suppose you could read the beat writer spot on the first matchup too, but I can’t tell you what to do.

Opening Day Feels

In the past, I’ve been critical of the Cubs for not going all-in like certain other teams (your mileage may vary as to whether that is the best course of action, but good players are expensive and some of us are a bit more impatient than others), but I understand the plan and we’ll talk about that later. This close to Opening Day, I just want it to get here and to enjoy whatever audio or video I can snag since I’m not in Chicago anymore and MLB doesn’t like making stuff free to watch anymore (at least, not live). I’ll probably be angry at everything later as most fans are wont to do, but on day one, with everyone at 0-0 and with a chance to go all the way, at least several months from mathematical elimination, hope is high and excitement abounds.

The Plan

As has been evident ever since the Cubs jettisoned Willson Contreras and acquired Tucker Barnhart, Cody Bellinger, and Dansby Swanson, the name of the game this year to to shore up pitching via a stronger battery and make sure there were defensive upgrades behind that pitching. All spring, I was impressed with how well Dansby and Nico Hoerner could get to balls, with how the defense looked not just competent, but exemplary, and how this seemed to translate to some confidence on the mound for the pitchers even if they were just getting their spring work in. I’ve been on record as saying that the offense is probably going to be meh at best, but if the vacuum cleaner middle infield and the upgraded outfield can gobble up baseballs and convert them into outs, we’re looking at a very strong chance for this team to steal a lot of one-run victories, though I don’t think the staff is good enough to get too many 1-0 shutouts. At the very least, the defense is more than viable and the offense has thump if they can run into a baseball instead of swinging over them.

The Rules

I know previously on the Dreamcast, we suggested that even with the shift restrictions, balls up the middle would still get gobbled up. But through an entire spring training across both leagues, what we’ve seen is that because the infielders can no longer camp in the grass, those balls, if hit hard enough, will still get through because there isn’t as much reaction time. This bodes well for the Cubs, actually, because there were plenty of balls that I thought would get through in the games I was fortunate enough to watch but were gobbled up at the last second by Swanson or Hoerner, so that middle infield would appear to be an advantage for the eternal Cubs optimist (and probably in reality too).

The bigger bases have been enticing more steals, and the Cubs were mostly running wild all spring, with a pretty decent success rate. I think despite the past success in holding and throwing out baserunners that Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart had, they didn’t seem to have as much success this spring. However, I did notice a lot of backpicks from the catcher (which does not count as a disengagement/attempt), far more than pitcher pickoff attempts, which seems to be by design, and anecdotally I noticed a lot of this from other teams as well. My guess is that the team didn’t show everything that they would use in a regular season game (because why would you?) and we’ll be pleasantly surprised with some new ways for the battery to hold and remove baserunners once the season begins. Or opposing baserunners could just take advantage of pitchers who don’t pay attention and catchers who can’t throw them out, I don’t know. It could go either way.

As for the big rule change, the pitch clock caused far fewer violations per game than I thought, and it seems the Cubs staff was well prepared for it, with only very rare instances of automatic balls or strikes. There were some clarifications late in spring training from MLB and also a reiteration of the new replay review rules, but with adjustments happening so quickly, this would seem not to be a problem. I often saw guys like Marcus Stroman start the motion with several seconds remaining on the clock, not to the extent of a Max Scherzer trying to super-game the system, but enough to be at least somewhat disruptive to batter timing. I guess the quick adjustment from Cubs players is a testament to the preparedness of Cubs coaching, whatever you might think of Grandpa Rossy.

I’d Like to Just Watch the Games, Please

There were reports that games on AppleTV+ this year would be available only to paid subscribers, and of course MLB.tv continues to have blackout restrictions, though that isn’t too big of a deal for me because I’m in the Bay Area so I’ll just get blacked out for when the Cubs come to visit the A’s and Giants this year. That said, I’m displeased that Marquee still doesn’t have a paid streaming-only service (I’d gladly pay at least $10/month for that) and MLB hasn’t just bought out all the failing RSNs already to provide zero-blackout service. It sucks being in a valley with no signal on the rabbit ears, and even if I could get signal, the Cubs aren’t broadcasting on over-the-air channels anymore anyways. As others have said, the problem with baseball isn’t with the timing (though that was a small part of it), but in the fact that many users can’t even access the product (not to mention a full third of the league is actively tanking, if not more).

Anyway, the Roster

After a few reports and various updates to the previous post, I think we can confidently say this is the Cubs Opening Day roster, which will obviously change significantly by the time we get to even next week (probably the earliest we can realistically expect Seiya Suzuki back), but at least we can say we know which 26 guys earned a plane ride to Chicago, based on gut feeling and also on reports from Cubs dot com, Marquee, and the Athletic, with my notes thrown in…

Rotation

  1. Marcus Stroman
  2. Jameson Taillon
  3. Justin Steele
  4. Drew Smyly
  5. Hayden Wesneski

I think at some point later on, Wesneski will supplant a couple of the guys above him, but this is how it shakes out for now. I think Smyly will generally be okay, but his margin of error is super slim and he seems to ping pong between “ooooh” starts and “OMG WHY” starts and that’s kind of scary.

Bullpen

  • Adbert Alzolay
  • Brad Boxberger
  • Javier Assad
  • Julian Merryweather (he exists despite berselius’ objections)
  • Michael Fulmer
  • Keegan Thompson
  • Michael Rucker
  • Mark Leiter, Jr

The consensus appears to be that even with no lefties, Leiter is better than the other lefty nonroster invitees and should be able to stick around until Brandon Hughes recovers from a knee ailment. Lots of multi-inning capable guys here which should alleviate some of the stress with the bullpen, and make this setup potentially advantageous in comparison to other teams that might not have as many long relievers.

Catchers

  • Tucker Barnhart
  • Yan Gomes
  • Luis Torrens

Since these guys can’t hit (although Gomes has socked a good number of dingers this spring), their primary purpose will be to call a good game (since the Cubs are insisting that only the catcher has the PitchCom call buttons) and control the running game, so hopefully they prevent more runs than they forget to score on offense. Torrens can apparently play more than just catcher, and the Cubs wanted to keep him with the team so he’s on the roster now. Incidentally with all the outrights and trade of Zach McKinstry and what not, there is an extra spot to let Leiter on without having to dump someone else (yet).

Infield

  • Eric Hosmer (probably the first to dump if he sucks)
  • Nico Hoerner
  • Dansby Swanson
  • Patrick Wisdom (also OF)
  • Edwin Rios
  • Nick Madrigal
  • Miles Mastrobuoni (the utility guy, as it were)
  • Trey Mancini (can also be in corner outfield and DH)

Best news is that both Madrigal and Mastrobuoni have options so one of them is likely shipped to Iowa when Suzuki returns, although they could just as soon DFA Hosmer if he super sucks (but we’ll see). Edwin Rios and Patrick Wisdom also each have an option year remaining should they want to use that.

Outfield

  • Ian Happ
  • Cody Bellinger
  • the other guys I said above who can stand in OF here or there

At least there are a couple Gold Glovers to pick up the slack. The versatility of this roster allows for some matchups even if the bats aren’t all that exciting, though I think they’ll make enough contact to keep the opposing defense on their toes. And if they do get on base, there’s enough speed to take the extra base on a hit or to swipe a bag now that the bags are a bit closer.

We are getting together soon to do a pre-Opening Day podcast episode, but for now, we just wait for baseball at beautiful Wrigley Field. In the immortal words of famous bard Tom Petty, waiting is the hardest part. And now, a haiku:

Offense impotent

Pitching and defense might help

Steal some extra wins

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

A Winning Pitch (We Hope)

We’ve reached the phase right before Spring Training where it’s mostly claims and minor league contracts while the residue of the free agent barrel lingers until teams and agents finally settle on something. For all intents and purposes, the roster is set (very similar to what we did last time, minus some DFAs and outrights and what not) and the only real questions are at the margins. For example:

  1. Who will be the backend starter(s), especially if Kyle Hendricks isn’t going to be ready for Opening Day, or ever?
  2. Who gets the last couple bullpen spots?
  3. Who is the pitching depth ready to be called up in case of injury/ineffectiveness/Act of God?

We will stick with the pitching theme for this post, as we determine which 13 guys likely get listed on the lineup card come Opening Day, and who their backups are on the taxi squad if a call-up is warranted.

The Rotation

Based purely on gut and the fact that he basically pitched like we thought he would by the end of the season, it seems pretty clear that Marcus Stroman, barring any setbacks, will be the Cubs’ Opening Day starter. I will list the five guys (not the burgers) I believe will be in the rotation on day one, and we can look at taxi squad spot starters later.

  1. Marcus Stroman
  2. Jameson Taillon
  3. Justin Steele
  4. Drew Smyly
  5. TBD (Hayden Wesneski or Adrian Sampson as the placeholder)

I think the top three are likely set in stone, and I also don’t think the Cubs sign Drew Smyly just to throw him in the bullpen, so that makes sense as a top four, with David Ross potentially switching guys around to alternate handedness within a series.

I say “TBD” for the number five spot because while it makes sense that it should be Hayden Wesneski (and again it’s not Hendricks simply because he is rehabbing, otherwise I think they let him start the year on the active roster as a courtesy and also because he can’t be outrighted without permission), I can see a situation where they keep Wesneski stretched out on a regular rotation in Iowa while someone like Adrian Sampson shows what he did last year wasn’t a fluke. We might also see Keegan Thompson in this spot, but I think he worked better in the bullpen as a long reliever than as a starter. So if Wesneski gets this spot, that completes the rotation, but if he doesn’t, he’s in Iowa as he has options remaining (see AZ Phil’s chart for the others as I refer to them later on in this post).

I do like that with this rotation, they generally induce plenty of groundballs and keep the ball in the park, which plays to the defense that the Cubs have assembled, particularly with the shift restrictions. Having Gold Glove-caliber defenders up the middle should help the rotation keep the runs against numbers down, and since few of these guys have blow-you-away stuff, inducing grounders and converting them into outs should help them stick around into the sixth or seventh innings more often.

The Bullpen

We get eight spots in the bullpen assuming a five-man rotation, at least until September or in doubleheaders where they get an extra guy. No more LOOGYs because of the three-batter minimum, so these guys have to be able to sustain at least to the end of their inning. Here’s a list of the eight-ish guys, with no regard as to their actual role in the order they are presented.

  1. Adbert Alzolay
    • Adbert has no options remaining so this is his year to prove himself before he is arbitration eligible. Adbert has thrived in a relief role where before he was kind of a meh starter, so this makes sense for him.
  2. Brad Boxberger
    • He’s one of the free agent signings this offseason and they’re going to give him plenty of runway to show what he has left in the tank, which if he can pitch as well as he did last year, is quite a bit. Boxberger’s deal was relatively inexpensive so this is probably one of the spots that can go to an internal option if the Cubs are forced to cut bait, which is obviously not ideal so let’s not deal with that.
  3. Brandon Hughes
    • The Cubs have a paucity of capable left-handed relief options, so this is pretty much a lock for Hughes, who did very well as Grandpa Rossy’s primary (and often only) lefty guy. Which probably means the Cubs should sign another lefty, so keep reading.
  4. Michael Rucker
    • Depending on whether he eventually gets DFA for another signing (see below), Rucker does have options remaining so this spot is probably in flux.
  5. Keegan Thompson
    • Thompson was one of the more reliable long relief guys after he made the full transition to the bullpen, but he might be able to function in a piggyback capacity with another bullpen guy (probably Adbert) if necessary.
  6. Rowan Wick
    • If Wick regains a form that we saw just a couple seasons back, then he likely finishes the season in the bullpen. If not, he does have one option year remaining.
  7. Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Sampson
    • Estrada pitched a few times at the tail end of the season and struck out a third of the batters he faced. Sampson made a number of starts that were, shall we say, shrouded in mystery because based on his repertoire he probably shouldn’t have gotten the results he did, but the results are the results. Both have options remaining so this spot is also fluid.
  8. Insert free agent LHP here
    • There are a few lefty relievers still waiting to find a new home, including former Cub Andrew Chafin, whom I think the Cubs should prioritize if they do want to try. The Cubs have already outrighted Anthony Kay so it would seem kind of goofy if they had to put him back on the roster, at which point they would no longer be able to outright him without permission. I think this is a free agent signing because aside from Hughes, there are no other left-handed obvious relief guys on the 40-man roster and that doesn’t include the lefty starters in Steele and Smyly.

The Taxi Squad

This represents everyone who is currently on the 40-man roster, who still have options remaining and/or the Cubs don’t care if they bail after a DFA, and who hopefully won’t suck (in this guy’s opinion anyway). Keep in mind that the maximum number of times a guy can be yo-yo’d back and forth between the minors and MLB is five, and that pitcher must stay in the minors for at least 15 days (except in case of injury replacement), so they’ll have to be creative with reliever usage and phantom IL stints. This won’t include the ones I’ve mentioned above already.

  • Javier Assad
    • A late-season starter, Assad had some success in his role although at times I thought he was inefficient, didn’t necessarily show off anything magical, and might have gotten away with some good luck. But he is still on the roster for a reason, as even a guy like this who can eat some innings without being shelled can be valuable.
  • Ben Brown
    • The return in the David Robertson trade, Ben Brown was protected from the Rule 5 draft and seems to be one of the potential call-ups should a spot start be needed.
  • Codi Heuer and Ethan Roberts
    • Still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Heuer figures to be a bullpen boost once he is healthy midseason. Similarly, Roberts was doing well until his own injury and hopefully regains that form when he fully recovers.
  • Ryan Jensen
    • Jensen was also protected from Rule 5 despite not having pitched above Double-A. I only list him because he’s on the roster and might be someone the Cubs want to look at come September.
  • Kyle Hendricks
    • I wouldn’t count on Hendricks doing much this year due to his recovery from a shoulder injury, but we’ll see what happens.
  • Caleb Kilian
    • I feel like Kilian stays in Iowa to figure out his command issues for a bit before they give him another shot, but I do expect to see him in Wrigley at some point assuming he does figure it out, because the stuff is filthy if he knows where it is supposed to go.
  • Julian Merryweather and Anthony Kay
    • Lumping these guys together because I think they try to outright Merryweather prior to DFAing Rucker or whoever else to accommodate whoever else they decide to sign, but Merryweather has a live arm and just needs to figure out how to make that fastball work for him and not get consistently destroyed. Kay just got outrighted so they could keep him in the organization, so I expect to see him get a shot later on in the year if he shows out.

That represents all the names on the 40-man, and we haven’t covered the guys who are lurking in Iowa. Most of the Iowa roster, as it stands, is filler and former top picks like Brendon Little, along with a bunch of reclamation projects, so there might be some diamonds down on that part of the farm without having to raid Tennessee just yet.

I would be interested to know your list of 13, but we’re still a few weeks from Spring Training, so maybe we will take a wait-and-see approach. Although this pitching staff is probably not as sexy as some others, I imagine they’ll at least be competent, so hooray for the plan!

The Division is a Pipe Dream

Projections are just projections, and as they say, it’s in the hands of the players to play well and buck the narrative. Although it hasn’t been officially published yet, as we all surmised, the Cardinals are likely to repeat as NL Central division champs again:

Fuck.

FanGraphs already has the projections for the other four teams in the division, including the Cubs. The Cardinals entry will probably be live in the next day or so, but for now we can just add up all the crude WAR and put these teams in their projected order in the Central.

  1. St. Louis Cardinals (48.6)
  2. Milwaukee Brewers (44.4)
  3. Chicago Cubs (35.4)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates (27.4)
  5. Cincinnati Reds (26.3)

Keep in mind that some of the more recent signings hadn’t been made yet for the other four teams before the Cardinals preview tweet. For example, the Reds just released Mike Moustakas while the Pirates reportedly brought back Andrew McCutchen and the Cubs are supposed to add Trey Mancini. Also keeping in mind that some of the players on the Cubs are either unproven per the ZiPS algorithm (so they’re understandable a bit more conservative on the projection) or are due for a step forward (we hope). But seeing that gap between the Cubs and the top two is somewhat discouraging.

This is about what we expected, though, and while the Cubs should be given plenty of credit for spending and winning the sneaky prize or whatever, it is difficult to stop wondering “what if” they had gotten some of the big names before settling on the players they did. I think there is a plan in place and I sincerely hope they’re right in using defense as their divisional market inefficiency. We’ll get a preview in about a month in snippets of spring training action, and we’ll see it for real come Opening Day.

Ate at Arby’s, On to the Next

Previously, we talked about the remaining arbitration-eligible Cubs and the impending deadline:

Cubs (10)

That deadline has since passed, and you can see every arbitration case has been settled before they have to bring in the agents and front office bad-mouthers:

Cubs (6)

Via MLBTR

Checking the Cots Contracts tracker, it would appear the Cubs are about $22MM below the first luxury tax threshold, and as has been implied at the Convention, Tom Ricketts seems willing to spend more but not necessarily exceed that threshold at this time. As usual, the MLBTR projections were pretty spot-on, and while Ian Happ’s report came kind of late in the evening of the deadline, the fact that he got above his projection probably bodes well for any potential extension talks, which I would not object to given how sparse next year’s free agency appears to be.

The folks at Bleacher Nation are covering the Cubs Convention and have also suggested that the Cubs may still be pursuing Trey Mancini, which I surmise won’t take a huge contract and would safely keep them under the luxury tax. I still don’t think they necessarily need to add more to the bullpen with the in-house pitching, but former reliever Andrew Chafin is available and I guess they could use a lefthander to help out Brandon Hughes. I low key wanted them to make an offer to Andrew McCutchen, who just seems like a fun guy and can still provide solid production if not anywhere near his former MVP level, but he’s back with the Pirates, and the Cubs have too many outfielder/DH types anyway, so I get it. Then again, since the Pirates are happy perpetually sucking, he might get traded midseason and become a Cub after all (dying laughing)

The Cubs.com beat reporter, Jordan Bastian, wrote up the opening ceremony at the convention, which I’m bummed to have missed even if this team isn’t the ideal super-juggernaut we had hoped for at the start of this offseason. Nevertheless, I am only about 75% joking when I say that the Cubs will play 162 1-0 games and hopefully win 90 of them, as games where you don’t get blown out are games where you have a shot at flipping the script. With the pitching and defense in place, I think the Cubs can do that, but it sucks that they’re punting the “destroy everything in our path” lineup construction to the next seasons. The rah-rah mantra remains that they’re trying to win this season, and I guess we will see if they can hold the .500 line and add at the deadline.

Eat at Arby’s: Or Just a Quick Look at the Cubs Arbitration Guys

This Friday is the Cubs Convention, and also happens to be the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to submit their salary figures for 2023 (other key dates remain but this is probably the biggest one coming up). The gist is that if they can’t come to a compromise, the team submits one number, the player submits another, and then sometime in February before Spring Training gets into full swing, both sides meet in front of an arbitrator where the team says how much the player sucks and doesn’t deserve their number. Since the Cubs are a file-and-trial club these days, with very few exceptions (such as with former Cubs All-Star Willson Contreras, who I still think they should have kept around), they will go to arbitration if a compromise isn’t announced sometime Friday.

As luck would have it, the fine folks at MLBTR have their remarkably quite accurate arbitration projections for every eligible player, including the Cubs (some of these names we won’t care about because they’re gone):

Cubs (10)

Of these, Ortega was non-tendered and is going to the Yankees on a minor league deal. The group of Brault, Mills, and Franmil Reyes were outrighted but elected free agency. Wieck got a two-year minor league deal to continue rehabbing his injury with the Cubs, while Wick without the E got a deal just above his MLBTR projection.

This leaves Happ, Hoerner, Codi Heuer, and Nick Madrigal. Heuer of course is still rehabbing his Tommy John surgery while Madrigal is hopefully recovering from the myriad injuries that have plagued him throughout his career, the latest of which was the groin pull that ended his 2022. The expectation is that Heuer will be a boost to the bullpen once he fully recovers, but with the signing of Dansby Swanson and the acquisition of numerous utility guys this offseason, Madrigal might be trade bait, although I think if he’s ever healthy, his high contact bat (allegedly) might be useful as a bench option. It could go either way.

Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are two Gold Glove-caliber defenders who hit well last season as rare bright spots in an otherwise lost season. Logically, they are the subject of extension speculation, as Happ will be entering free agency shy of age 30 and Nico is still quite young as well. I’ve written before about how Happ should stick around, but the prevailing thought is that with next offseason’s relatively weak free agent class and the fact that Happ is the Cubs union representative, he is going to have to be wowed to forgo free agency. The other consideration, of course, is inflation and the eye-popping contracts that were thrown around this offseason for elite shortstops and outfielders. While we can’t really call Nico or Happ “elite” with a straight face, there is a market for solidly good position players, and the Cubs will have to open up their purse-strings a bit to get any extensions done, as with a “normal” offseason this time around, they might really just go full file-and-trial, so the clock is ticking. Ideally they’ll just agree to an arbitration salary so they can negotiate between now and the spring training report date (probably around Valentine’s Day) to get the extension done if both sides, as indicated previously, are serious about keeping the relationship going. For Happ and Hoerner, at least, the Cubs will have to pay up because there’s little room for team friendliness these days.

Cubs New Year’s Resolutions for 2023 and Beyond

Well, well, here we are at the end of 2022, and it’s been fun to hang out with all you jabronis here at Obstructed View, very much appreciate you letting me rant on a semi-regular basis about the Cubs and baseball. The Cubs, of course, have done what they could and/or wanted to since they missed out on a bunch of the big names earlier in the offseason, but they apparently have a plan and are sticking to it. While normally I’d say we should take a wait and see approach, I think that they can still do a bit more if they wanted to (and they probably should), and we’ll tackle the rumors and stuff after the new year when something more concrete comes out. So I present to you some resolutions that they should make and hopefully keep to actually sustain a run of success this time.

Get Good Players

Whether you agree with the deal or not, getting Dansby Swanson was by default an upgrade to the roster, so the Cubs are starting to do the thing where they get capable players who at least raised the floor of this club as currently constructed to .500 or so. The bargain bin list I did earlier can help them bolster the club some more, although I guess allegedly whatever money they don’t spend rolls over, or at least you hope it gets deployed at midseason trade time. The point is that the Cubs should not use the minor league lightning-in-a-bottle approach to fill the roster anymore, they need actual established good players, and that means they need to spend (although again there’s not much left to spend on this offseason, so this is probably something they need to do next offseason).

Keep Your Good Players

This is something that has frustrated me since the great sell-off over the past couple seasons where the 2016 championship core was left to rot and then we lost our most recent set of heroes. With the farm system on the uptick again, and a reorganization of the coaching structure, my hope is that the high-impact players see their skills and potential maximized, and are put in the best position to succeed for more than just their arbitration years.

In addition, just like Atlanta has done with seemingly every single one of their homegrown players, give out some extensions to the good ones already on the team! Continuity in personnel is good for any organization, and it also helps fans, even me, connect better with their favorite team if they know someone is going to be around for a long time.

Don’t Waste Opportunities

As Theo Epstein once said, every season is sacred, and with a team that we can see is on the rise, let’s hope the Cubs continue to give David Ross and friends everything they need to surprise this year and go full juggernaut next year. Brett compiled some media speculation that Rafael Devers might be a Cubs target, and while that might seem far-fetched, it’s no more outlandish than us pondering a Shohei Ohtani trade or our early offseason wishlist for every good player. With this shitpile of a division, the Cubs have annual opportunities to get to the postseason, and it is very frustrating to see them squandered. I kind of get that this year is another transition-type year where contention is within grasp, but they don’t have any excuses next year. Give me something I want to actually throw my money at.

Happy New Year, jabronis.

Diving Into the Bargain Bin

The Cubs have probably finished building their roster via free agency for the most part, and we covered the biggest signing plus the basic plan for 2023 in our last podcast. Based on the official signings and Cots Contracts, the Cubs still have about $20MM to spend (if they choose to) before they hit the first luxury tax threshold, but I doubt they will splurge, barring a surprise Carlos Correa pillow contract because his ankle bone isn’t connected to his leg bone or whatever. I thought I’d check out the free agent list and see if there was anyone else worth grabbing before the Cubs pivot to trades to round out the roster before spring training.

What the Cubs Don’t Absolutely Need

Based on the plan in place at this time, the Cubs don’t need the following (but an upgrade is obviously always nice if they can swing it!):

  • Catcher: The Cubs’ tandem of Tucker Barnhart and Yan Gomes is pretty much set for all glove, minimal bat
  • Middle Infield: Expecting Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson to gobble up anything hit their way
  • Outfield: From left to right, Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki most likely eat up the majority of the available playing time
  • Pitching: Starting rotation is pretty much set with Marcus Stroman as the headliner and no obvious ace-level pitchers still available, similarly with the bullpen now that the top relievers are gone

I’m also going to assume the Cubs can fill a bench from in-house options so they probably won’t spend too much for that.

Who the Cubs Should Probably Try to Get

By process of elimination, this means the Cubs will focus mostly on first base, third base, and designated hitter, if they feel they can’t rely on Patrick Wisdom and friends or don’t want to put all their eggs into the Matt Mervis basket. The MLBTR list has names, but whether those names are going to engender a feeling of awe is debatable. Here’s my priority list:

First Base

When looking through free agent lists, it’s kind of disappointing when you see all the names that used to be good, but you just can’t see them actually being good in 2023 unless miracles happen. That said, I think I’ll prioritize two names:

Trey Mancini – we’ve discussed him before and I think after Michael Conforto came off the board, this was probably most Cubs fans’ top pick at this point due to his demeanor and his potential residual upside.

Miguel Sano – I forgot that he existed for a bit, but he was good for the Twins for a while (when he was healthy, which is harder since he’s a pretty big dude) and then he just kind of stopped being good. I’m interested in any power potential he has, but I guess at that point you might as well go with Patrick Wisdom.

Third Base

I also think this is something the Cubs stopgap with an internal option, assuming Wisdom remembers how to play good defense, but after Brandon Drury went off the board, there just don’t seem to be any other tolerable options. The main name that pops out at me is Evan Longoria, who could be good for a short-term “prove you’re still useful” type contract, but again this is probably another spot the Cubs seem happy to punt until they get a prospect breakout or hope that Wisdom can make things happen.

Designated Hitter

I feel like this is not so much a locked in spot a la a David Ortiz (you wish), but just a resting spot to rotate guys off of defense every now and then. But if the Cubs want to throw some money and hope to catch lightning, there are a couple names that I was at least somewhat intrigued in:

Nelson Cruz – now in his 40s, Cruz is of course known for his prodigious power that has waned as time caught up to him. He’s kept in good shape for an older gentleman so I wonder if a reasonable deal can be set up to bring him in. It helps that he seems like a really fun dude.

Andrew McCutchen – speaking of a fun dude, and someone who is younger and also still fleet of foot albeit not so good in the field anymore, I think Cutch would be a positive influence on the younger players and the team as a whole. I really wanted the Cubs to try to sign Cutch years ago after he left the Pirates, but better late than never I guess!

They’ll Probably Stay Put

I think we should actually keep our ears open for trade rumors at this point if the Cubs don’t end up signing Trey Mancini, but don’t hold me to that. This current version of the 2023 team is probably going to be more watchable than the one this past season, but hopefully there is a plan to be slightly more than that, although that plan did convince Swanson to sign, so it could go either way?

Dreamcast 55: How the Cubs Saved Christmas

Hey everyone, happy holidays! The Cubs pulled off a last minute present just in time even if it wasn’t our first choice in signing Dansby Swanson. Among the various fun topics from AC’s various very good questions include:

  • The fallout from the Carlos Correa drama session
  • How we feel about the Cubs as currently constructed
  • What the Cubs still need to do
  • …and more!

Please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts and share us with your friends. Thanks for listening, and hope you get plenty of fun presents.

You should be able to see the embedded player from both this WordPress and our Podbean embedded player for this episode below:

Obstructed View Podcast
Obstructed View Podcast
Dreamcast 55: How the Cubs Saved Christmas
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