Since trades happened, a podcast also has to happen as we discuss…
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Thought this was an interesting note, one I don’t think I’ve ever seen before from the Cubs or any other team in season:
I think I fully expected the Cubs to sell, but maybe, given their not-atrocious record and the window being open just a crack, they are really just trying to facilitate a build up even if it’s gradual. Thus far it’s adding guys like Nate Pearson and Isaac Paredes, while subtracting Christopher Morel (sad face) and avoiding touching their top 10 prospects.
I really don’t know, but we have two days until the deadline, so let’s have some fun.
RC is back in Chicago, and took some time in between building lots of furniture to talk with AC about the Cubs…
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I think we would all have liked the Cubs to sweep the Cardinals, but sweeps are hard no matter the team, and winning the season series while basically forcing the other guys to sell off all their good players is fun too. But it hasn’t been just the bad teams that the Cubs have done well against, as I remarked on this FB thread and also as shown from the B-Ref breakdown below:
I believe the Cubs have done enough to get some additions pending the efforts of Jed Hoyer’s front office. Even as the Dodgers are being goddamned useless against the Reds this weekend, the Cubs have gradually trimmed the deficit and are within striking range of the Wild Card and the division, though obviously they’d want to win the division since a couple of the teams in front of them in the wild card race are also in the division. The Cubs also leaked earlier that they weren’t trading Cody Bellinger, which is awesome, but because this team is inherently flawed on the offensive side and might need more than one meh lefty reliever and could also use some insurance if some of the starters have a bad time, some additions are needed.
My guess is that because this team isn’t quite ready to go all-in like the Rangers just did this weekend, they’re going to want to add at the margins and preferably guys with multiple years of club control or cheaper rentals. You can probably go over to MLBTR and check all the rumors, but on my end, I’m anticipating that the top 10 organizational prospects are untouchable this year (explore again this offseason), but there is still plenty of depth to make something happen.
On the internal side of things, at some point they’ll probably call up some of the guys from Iowa (i.e., Matt Mervis and friends, and hell, maybe even David Bote since they’re paying him anyway) to shore up the lineup, as well as pitchers to help eat some starts down the stretch. I think there’s a nonzero chance they eventually determine that certain guys on the big league team are no longer useful and do minor trades or DFA to clear spots.
We have a little under 48 hours to go as of this writing, so it hopefully will not be a disappointment, although I don’t anticipate anything splashy. Taking a wait and see approach.
UPDATE 7/31 6:27 PM Eastern: Oh hello, old friend:
Morosi confirms Michael Cerami’s report on the platform formerly known as twitter:
UPDATE 8:03 PM Eastern: Not even going to pretend I know who this pitcher is but good luck to Nelly:
The Cubs acquired José Cuas from the Royals for OF Nelson Velázquez.
— Andy Martínez (@amartinez_11) August 1, 2023
UPDATE 8/1 9:13 AM Pacific: Decided not to do time zone math anymore, Cubs and Rays did a trade and now we expect the guys going to Tampa to become perennial Cy Young winners:
UPDATE 3:28 PM Pacific: Guess the Cubs are intent on just Jeimer and maybe Cuas whenever they call him up, as there were no real buzzer beaters to speak of:
Stay tuned for some pod.
UPDATE 3:36 PM: In addition to subtracting Trey Mancini, the Cubs don’t have to pay too much for the remaining service time they’ll get from Jeimer:
After the Draft, RC, Berselius, & BVS hang out to talk about the Cubs strategy, the All-Star festivities and what we liked versus what they need to change, and the usual stuff about whether this team is good enough to avoid a sell-off and make a pleasantly surprising postseason run.
You can check out the podcast page or just click on the embedded players below. You can also use the sidebar to get to our Apple Podcast pages and leave a nice review and rating if it pleases you.
Since the last time I looked at the odds (extreme Han Solo voice), the Cubs have slipped a bit in the standings but remain in third place, now six games back of the Brewers and seven behind the Reds. While it’s possible the Reds or the Brewers can win the division, I don’t think Cincinnati is as good as their record suggests (albeit with their very exciting play thanks to EDLC) and the recent series with the Brewers, in which the Cubs might have swept were it not for some brain farts and bad luck (it could’ve gone either way), suggested that the Brewers weren’t that good either. What remains is for the Cubs to take advantage of the fact that every team is flawed, while also making sure they minimize their own flaws. The odds have updated some thanks to the Reds almost running away with it, but the Cubs aren’t that far back when considering this part of the calendar, so they still have a shot at winning the division and a laughably small chance of clinching a first round bye. Having just won their first ever series against the Yankees in any stadium in the New York Metropolitan Area, the Cubs might have at least stemmed the need to sell, although I guess we can look at that later or talk about it on the podcast.
There was a flurry of moves as Sunday starters bowed out and replacement pitchers and other injury replacements were announced, but for the Cubs, only Justin Steele will actually play in the game since Marcus Stroman elected not to pitch and Dansby Swanson is on the injured list with a heel issue which we hope will resolve itself by the time he’s eligible to be activated. I did think it was a bit funky to have three representatives from a team that isn’t even at .500, but I guess that speaks to the talent of the club and how the record doesn’t reflect that talent because of “baseball” or whatever. Steele and Stroman are among the pitching leaders in the NL and Swanson may still be the WAR leader amongst NL shortstops (what, you want me to look it up?) so this plus the prospects knocking on the door make me think they should buy and not do any sort of major sell-off, although I imagine the days for certain players like a Patrick Wisdom might be numbered, and guys who could hit free agency soon like Cody Bellinger and even Kyle Hendricks could be good moves to free up roster spots for said prospects to get some reps before they hopefully get serious about winning this coming offseason. Anyway, the Home Run Derby is on Monday and then they play the only All-Star Game in which the defense actually tries.
So Rob Manfred got an earful from the very perceptive fans in the crowd on Day 1, where the LSU duo everyone was salivating over got picked first and second overall, while the Cubs made some fun picks with their two of the day, which covered the first 70 picks. The second day will cover rounds 3-10, and the third and final day completes the draft with rounds 11-20 ever since they gutted the draft among killing something like 40 minor league affiliates and readying to restrict minor league club roster sizes. Most of the news is compiled over at MLB dot com.
The first was at #13 because the new draft lottery hates the Cubs, where they picked Matt Shaw, listed as either a second baseman or a shortstop or just an infielder, from the University of Maryland. He was apparently the Cape Cod League MVP last summer and hit a bunch of homers so there’s a hit tool, and the scouts suggest his arm won’t allow him to stay on the left side so he’s likely going to be a second baseman if he sticks, which makes things interesting down the line especially if he graduates as rapidly as Nico Hoerner did.
The final pick, thanks to Willson Contreras moving to the other side of the rivalry, was at #68 with Jaxon Wiggins, a right-hander from Arkansas who had Tommy John Surgery. I think of this as their Cade Horton pick for this year, and we can see what Horton is doing so far in the minors. Wiggins seemed to sit comfortably in the mid-90s with the ability to sniff triple digits but we’ll see if the Cubs got some value out of this one. Between Wiggins and Shaw I believe the Cubs will save some money for the later rounds to squeeze whatever value they can out of each slot before they screw some seniors (hey, phrasing)
The Cubs have a relatively smaller pool with $8,962,000 (plus 5%) to spend amongst their first 10 round picks, plus they can max out at $150K without dipping into the pool for anyone from rounds 11-20.
When they return home on Friday, the Cubs will take on a resurgent Red Sox club which might be fine were they not stuck in the AL East. After that one, it’s a long-ish quasi-home stand where they hopefully exact revenge on the Nationals and Cardinals before traveling to the South Side and finishing their season series against the Cardinals before July even ends. Then back home to play the current division leader Reds, which coincides with the trade deadline. Inclusive of the trade deadline on August 1, that’s 18 games remaining to build on this 42-47 record. This year’s Cubs has been a bit of a mystery because they can’t decide if they’re good or not, which probably means they’re a “bad” team by default, but also maybe they just need to do what Berselius says and just play better. So this is probably going to be about three weeks of agony or jubilation depending on what happens. It could go either way!
Today’s an off day and what better way to spend it then discussing the recent trade between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners. The Cubs sent off 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and RHP Paul Blackburn in return for LHP Mike Montgomery and RHP Jordan Pries.
We’ll spend this post focusing on the more prominent name in Montgomery. Mike was drafted out of high school in the supplemental round (36th overall) of the 2008 draft when the Royals lost free agent David Riske to the Brewers (side note: Riske went on to give up 41 runs in 66.2 innings with the Brewers before getting run out of baseball).
Mike progressed quickly through the minors reaching AA by age 20 and AAA by age 21. Here’s how the prospect world viewed him during the those years:
Baseball America:
Pre-2010: Rated #39 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #19 Prospect
Pre-2012: Rated #23 Prospect
Prospect Ratings by MLB.com:
Pre-2012: Rated #31 Prospect
Prospect Ratings by BaseballProspectus.com:
Pre-2010: Rated #36 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #21 Prospect
Montgomery dominated the low minors. While Mike still progressed to AA and AAA, his FIP skyrocketed as he rose through the Royals system. He posted a 4.88 FIP in AAA in 2011 with his K/9 down to 7.71 and BB/9 jumped to 4.12 where we was previously around 8 K/9 and 2 BB/9.
That trend continued in 2012 and the Royals traded him along with Jake Odorizzi and Will Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays for Wade Davis and James Shields. 2013 wasn’t much better in the Rays organization, but things started to turn around a little bit.
| Year | WHIP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1.624 | 6.07 | 6.7 | 3.8 |
| 2013 | 1.457 | 4.83 | 6.7 | 3.9 |
| 2014 | 1.310 | 4.29 | 7.0 | 3.4 |
| 2015 | 1.194 | 4.13 | 8.0 | 2.6 |
*I’d have normally done FIP but BR does have FIP for the MiLB and FG doesn’t summarize by year.
Here’s what Sickels had to say when he saw him back in 2011 (the first year he started to struggle):
In that inning, Montgomery’s fastball was 90-92 MPH, thrown high in the zone with little movement. His slider was flat, and he was telegraphing his curveball; you could tell it was going to be the curve before he released it. He was fooling nobody, his location was off, and he gave up the four runs. However, in the second inning, and for the rest of the game, he looked like a different pitcher. His fastball kicked up to 91-93, with life low in the strike zone. His slider got much sharper, he did a better job selling the curveball, and he mixed in some solid changeups.
For a bigger summation of various scouting reports, the Royals Review blog over at SB Nation did a good job here.
Prior to 2015 the Rays traded Montgomery to the Mariners for RHP Erasmo Ramirez. He broke into the majors in 2015 starting 16 games with a 4.67 FIP. The Mariners put him in the bullpen in 2016 where he’s had much better success to the tune of 7.88 K/9 | 2.63 BB/9 | 3.20 FIP. Specifically, he has a .241 wOBA against left handed batters so far in 20 innings and 78 batters faced.
Baseball America rated his changeup the best in the Royals system in 2011 and 2012. However, so far in 2016 his changeup usage is down to 9.1% compared to 20.4% in his 16 major league starts in 2015. He changeup in 2015 was actually his worst pitch in 2015 with a -3.1 runs above average. He’s throwing more fastballs and curveballs with fewer cutters and changeups. He fastball velocity is up to 93.4 compared to 90.9 as a starter.
This is all to say, well, I have no freaking clue what to expect for him. From the scouting reports I’ve read, no one can put a finger on why Montgomery struggled for years. He doesn’t have an injury history. I’m sure Chris Bosio will get his hands on him and hopefully do his magic. I don’t think he will be Clayton Richard bad which is a plus. He does have some upside and the pedigree. Don’t forget that not too long ago Andrew Miller was a failed starting pitcher. Crazier things have happened.
OMG! OMG! OMG! This is the most exciting thing ever!!!
Cubs acquire relieve Justin Germano from Boston for cash; Jairo Asencio designated for assignment. Coleman scratched from Iowa start.
— Paul Sullivan (@PWSullivan) July 19, 2012
OK, maybe it's not so exciting.
But Coleman is probably heading to St. Louis, which probably means something is actually going to happen with Dempster soon. Probably.
Or not. We're taking a wait and see approach.
The Cubs are now saying that Coleman is only being sent to St. Louis in case Germano can't get there in time for the game. This smells like bullshit to me since A) they wouldn't have to DFA Asencsio until they are ready to activiate Germano and 2) When did a journey from Boston to St. Louis become such an ordeal that he might not make it by tomorrow's game? Maybe Germano is Amish and he can only travel by horse and buggy? There just doesn't seem to be any real reason to have Coleman standing by as a contingency for the Germano acquisition.
The Untouchables (h/t @thecubreporter) head to Pittsburgh to lose in beautiful PNC Park. Pittsburgh improved itself at the deadline by adding former foes Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick to the squad. The Pirates picked up Lee for an unranked by BA A-ball first baseman, and Ludwick was acquired for a PBTNL.
The Cubs largely failed to improve their farm system, moving Fukudome for a relief pitcher and yet another toolsy impatient raw position player. I’m annoyed with the Cubs for declaring certain players untouchable (mainly Marshall and Marmol), but for all the complaining about the Cubs lack of movement at the deadline, most of the guys that the interwebs were begging the Cubs to move have next to no value. Yes, if Hendry shopped guys like Byrd, Pena, Baker, Johnson, or even Ramirez he probably would have found someone. But what would be the point? None up those guys have much more value than Lee or Ludwick, and the Pirates basically gave up nothing for them. Even if the Cubs sent money along with those guys they couldn’t expect much more than a C prospect or two at best. Dempster’s traditional numbers this year would make him impossible to trade for good value even if he was willing to waive his NTC, which seemed the most unlikely of any of the Cubs vets. No one seemed particularly interested in salary relief either.
I would feel a lot better if Hendry was more visibly trying to move these guys to see if someone would overpay, but in the end I think we got the same result.
As usual, team stats and NL ranks are listed.
| Cubs | Pirates | |
| wOBA | .312 (9th) | .297 (14th) |
| UBR | -11.6 (16th) | -4.6 (14th) |
| UZR | -17.7 (13th) | 8.7 (3rd) |
| SP FIP | 4.10 (11th) | 4.18 (13th) |
| RP FIP | 4.06 (15th) | 3.70 (6th) |
The Pirates have had a great year and I’m glad to see excited fans at their awesome park. But those numbers do not look like the numbers of a winning ballclub. Looking at their record and stats, it makes me relieved that the Cubs record reflects how terrible the team actually is. As much as we’re gnashing our teeth now, I could imagine that we’d be gnashing them even more if this team was somehow hanging on to a .500 record and convincing themselves that they have a good squad.
Taking a closer look at the Pirates numbers, Andrew McCutchen (.388) is the only regular with a significant wOBA. Their second best regular is catcher Chris Snyder, who is on the DL following back surgery. In the rotation, they’ve received solid pitching from most of their starters, and Jeff Karstens has a monster ERA-FIP split of nearly two runs.
Monday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.59, 4.09, 4.24, 3.87) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (3.16, 3.78, 3.95, 3.89), 6:05 PM CT
Checking back in with Z: his strikeout rate still sucks, his walk rate looks surprisingly decent, and his ground ball rate is slowly climbing up to what it was in the past two seasons (though still not nearly as good as his prime).
Maholm is having another quietly decent year. He’s never been a guy to blow batters away (career 5.59 K/9) but he gets teh ground balls. Like Z, his rates have been slipping alarmingly in the past 2-3 seasons.
Tuesday: Randy Wells, RHP (6.16, 5.27, 4.37, 4.22) vs Kevin Correia, RHP (4.24, 4.28, 4.19, 4.25), 6:05 PM CT
The Pirates signed Correia to a 2/8 deal in the offseason to be their nominal ace. He was a decent reliever/swing man early in his career with the Giants, then put up unsurprisingly better numbers as a starter in Petco Caverns in 09-10. He’s seen a big drop in his strikeout rate since joining the Pirates.
Wednesday: Matt Garza, RHP (3.99, 3.09, 3.12, 3.83) vs Charlie Morton, RHP (4.04, 3.86, 3.97, 4.16), 6:05 PM CT
Morton is a groundball machine that saw some tough luck in his first few stints in the majors. He struggled to find the plate in his first season in the bigs with Atlanta, but since being moved to the Pirates his control has greatly improved. He put up a 7+ ERA in 2010, largely a product of a .353 BABIP and a 18.1% HR/FB rate (his xFIP was 4.11). His numbers this season are much more in line with what was expected of him, and to top it off he’s posted a GB rate of nearly 60%.
Garza was knocked around in his last start, but 4+ months into the season I still can’t believe his GB rate (laughing). He managed to induce 12 groundballs against the Cardinals offense.
Thursday: Rodrigo Lopez, RHP (4.40, 4.83, 4.52, 5.00) vs James McDonald, RHP (4.17, 4.49, 4.25, 4.08), 6:05 PM CT
The less said about Lopez, the better.
McDonald came to the Pirates from the Dodgers in the Octavio Dotel trade. He was largely used as a reliever with the big league club, but the Pirates moved him into their rotation as soon as they acquired him. He’s a flyball pitcher that often has time finding the plate.
Cubs lose three out of four
Continue reading “Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (43-65) at Pittsburgh Pirates (54-52)”
