zach cates – Obstructed View

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13

Chris Rusin threw 6.2 innings, allowed 5 hits and 4 runs. He walked 2 and struckout 3. He also hit a batter. Zack Putnam struckout the only batter he faced. Rafael Dolis gave up 2 hits and struck a batter out in an inning of work. Blake Parker pitched the 9th and allowed a walk and a hit. He struck a batter out.

The I-Cubs only had 6 hits and a walk in this one. Logan Watkins had one of the two extra base hits as he went 1-4 with a double. Ian Stewart also doubled and was 2-4. Donnie Murphy was 2-3.

Tennessee Smokies 7 @ Chattanooga Lookouts 5

Dallas Beeler had another strong outing. He went 6 innings, walked 2 and struckout 6. He gave up 4 hits and 3 runs. Trey McNutt struckout 2 in an inning of work.

All of the position players in the lineup had a hit. The top of the order did this:

Matt Szczur 3-5, double
Ronald Torreyes 2-5, double
Arismendy Alcantara: 3-4, 2 doubles, home run

Jair Fernandez was 2-4 and Anthony Giansanti was 2-4 with a double and a triple.

Daytona Cubs 6 @ Lakeland Flying Tigers 5

Zach Cates walked 2 and only struckout 1 in 5.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits and 3 runs. David Cales threw 2.1 innings, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked a batter and struckout 4. Hunter Cervenka struckout 2 in an inning of work.

The Cubs acquired Cervenka, along with Michael Bowden, in the Marlon Byrd trade with the Red Sox. He’s appeared in 9 games this season and has thrown 17.2 innings. He’s allowed just 7 hits and 4 runs. He’s struckout 16, but he has walked 10. He’s had a tendency to walk a lot of batters so there doesn’t see to be much improvement there. He’ll either need to improve that or he may only have a career of a LOOGY ahead of him.

Zeke DeVoss and Dustin Geiger were 2-5. Geiger doubled. Javier Baez had another good day at the plate going 3-5 with a double. That’s two days in a row he’s had good results. More of it, please.

Jorge Soler continues to rake. He was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout. Wes Darvill was 3-5.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Cedar Rapids Kernels 0

Pierce Johnson had his best start of his career last night. He threw 6 innings and struckout 9 batters while walking only 1. He’s having a great year so far. Over 8 starts and 40.2 innings, he’s walked 12 and allowed only 1 home run. He’s struckout 45. Pierce turned 22 a week ago and it won’t be long before he’s in the Daytona rotation if he keeps this up.

Justin Amlung walked 2 and struckout 3 in 2 innings. Jeffry Antigua struckout 2 and and allowed a hit in 1 inning. The Cougars pitchers struckout 14 batters and walked only 3.

Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 2-4. Vogelbach had a double and a strikeout while Shoulders struckout twice and hit his 9th home run of the season. Jeimer Candelario doubled in 4 plate appearances. Oliver Zapata was 3-4 with a home run.

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Rays 2

The VSL Cubs had allowed a ton of runs so far. They’ve allowed 22, 8, 15, 15 and now 2 runs. It’s nice to see them play a game that I can be certain is actually baseball.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-30-13

Round Rock Express 2 @ Iowa Cubs 7

Guillermo Monosco threw 5 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run on a walk, 6 strikeouts. The run he allowed was on a solo home run. Yoanner Negrin threw 2 innings, allowed 3 hits and a run. He struckout 3. Casey Coleman allowed a hit in an inning pitched and Rafael Dolis struckout 2 in an inning.

Logan Watkins took a walk in 4 plate appearances. He also struckout. Brett Jackson’s new swing struckout 3 times. Brent Lillibridge was 2-4 with a home run, his 2nd at Iowa. Brian Bogusevic just keeps hitting. He was 3-4 with 2 doubles and a triple. Brad Nelson was 2-2 with a home run and 2 walks.

That was Bogusevic’s 1st home run, which is kind of surprising when you consider the season he’s had at Iowa so far. In 24 games he’s hitting .420/.500/568. He has 7 doubles, a triple and that home run.

Palm Beach Cardinals 4 @ Daytona Cubs 11

Zach Cates threw 6 hitless innings last night. He pitched 6 innings, allowed 0 runs, walked 3 and struckout 7. On April 19th, Cates threw 0.2 innings, allowed 3 hits and 3 walks and 6 runs. Other than that awful outing, he’s pitched 22 innings, allowed 14 hits, 4 runs, 0 home runs, 8 walks and 22 strikeouts.

David Cales threw an inning, allowed 2 hits and a walk and struckout 1. Starling Peralta hadn’t appeared in a game since April 11th (only his 2nd start of the year) and came out of the bullpen last night. It didn’t go well. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks in 1.2 innings. He gave up a home run and all 4 baserunners scored. Frank Del Valle finished the night and gave up a hit and a walk in 0.1 innings.

Tim Saunders was 1-3 with a walk, 2 strikeouts and an HBP. Zeke DeVoss batted 2nd last night for what I’m pretty sure was the first time. Guess what. He walked. He was also 2-3 with a double. Javier Baez was 1-5 with a double and 2 strikeouts. Guess what. Baez had an error. His 12th. He’s now on pace for roughly 67 errors this year.

Jorge Soler was 1-4 with a double. Ben Carhart was 2-4.

Kane County Cougars 13 @ Lake County Captains 9

Lendy Castillo makes me laugh. The Cubs picked this guy in the rule 5 draft last year. He was on the MLB team for part of the season. Usually with rule 5 picks, if they stick around, they’ll often get sent to AAA the following year. Maybe AA. Not Castillo. He didn’t even go to A+. He went to fucking A ball. Last night he sucked and in his 4 starts this year, only once has he allowed fewer than 5 runs. I’m guessing he’s sent to Boise when the short-season leagues begin. Maybe by that time they’ll send him to do DSL.

Justin Amlung threw 3 innings, allowed only one hit, a home run, walked 1 and struckout 2. Nathan Dorris threw 2innings, struckout 4 and allowed 2 hits.

RF Pin-Chieh Chen was 4-6 with a double. That improved his batting line to .242/.338/.303. Gioskar Amaya was 0-4 and it completed a terrible month for him. 24 strikeouts to 3 walks and a .560 OPS.

Dan Vogelbach was 4-6 with his 5th home run of the season. Vogelbach’s power didn’t come on right away, but it’s here. He’s hit 4 home runs in the last 10 games and has his slugging percentage up to .494.

Rock Shoulders was 2-5 and Willson Contreras was 2-4 with a walk and a home run. Yaniel Cabezas, a catcher, was 3-6. Cabezas is 24 years old.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-25-13

Iowa Cubs 9 @ Omaha Storm Chasers 3

Barrett Loux isn’t very good at baseball. He threw 4.2 innings, gave up 8 hits and walked 4. That’s almost 3 baserunners per inning. Esmailin Caridad walked 2 and struckout 3 over 2.1 innings. Cory Wade gave up 2 hits and a walk in .2 innings. Rafael Dolis got the save with 1.1 innings of work, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts.

I-Cubs pitchers gave up 10 hits, one of which was a home run, and walked 9 batters yet somehow gave up only 3 runs.

Logan Watkins was 0-2 with 2 strikeouts. He walked 4 times. The Cubs had 10 walks on the night.

Hide your children was 4-5 with a walk. Ryan Sweeney had the big night again going 4-5 with a triple and a home run. He walked and struckout also. Darnell McDonald was 2-5 and Edwin Maysonet was 2-4 with a walk.

Pensacola Blue Wahoos 1 @ Tennessee Smokies 2

Dallas Beeler threw 7 shutout innings and allowed 7 hits. He walked 1 and struckout 2. The right hander was selected by the Cubs in the 2010 draft in the 41st round. In 4 starts so far this season he’s thrown 31.1 innings and allowed only 17 hits. He’s struckout only 7, but also shown really good control in walking only 7. He’s been a bit BABIP lucky to date and doesn’t have the ability to strike a lot of batters out. He struckout 70 last season in 136 innings.

He made 9 starts for the Smokies in 2011 and returned there for the entire season last year. He’s now made 40 starts in AA so will probably see a promotion to Iowa at some point before too long.

Zach Rosscup allowed a walk, hit and a run in his inning while Brian Schlitter didn’t allow any hits or walks. He struck a batter out in 1 inning.

Ronald Torreyes had a great night as the leadoff hitter. He was 3-3 with a walk. He had a single, double and a triple. The rest of the Smokies combined for only 3 hits. Jae-Hoon Ha and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4. Ha struckout twice and Villanueva struckout once. Catcher Rafael Lopez was 1-3 with a double.

This week’s prospect profile will be Jae-Hoon Ha who deserves more attention than I’ve given him.

Lakeland Flying Tigers 3 @ Daytona Cubs 5

Zach Cates allowed 4 hits and no runs in 5 innings. He walked 1 and struckout 4. Yeiper Castillo struckout the side in the 6th. Austin Reed’s struggles continue. He gave up 3 hits and 3 runs in 1 inning pitched. He also walked 3. More on him in a moment. David Cales threw the final 2 innings, allow no hits or runs, walked 2 and struckout 4.

Austin Reed was a 12th round pick in 2010 and after a season as a starter, the Cubs move him to the bullpen in 2012. He wasn’t going to have any success as a starter considering he barely struck anybody out. He had a decent season in relief last year at Peoria, but so far this year he’s given up 15 hits in 7 innings. He’s allowed 9 runs, walked 6 and struckout 6.

Everybody in the Cubs lineup had a hit and they had 12 in total so let’s just stick with the guys who had more than 1. Javier Baez homered in the 1st inning and singled in his final at-bat. He struckout once and was picked off. Hopefully we’ll start to see him improve at the plate, but to be honest, I’m not concerned about that. I’m confident he’ll hit better, but the question is whether he’ll walk enough and strikeout less. Without improvements there, he’s going to struggle at some point. Maybe it’s this year. Maybe it’s next year, but he can’t continue to strikeout as much as he has to this point in his career and walk as infrequently as he has.

Chad Noble was 2-3 with a home run and a walk. Anthony Giantanti was 2-3 with a walk.

Kane County Cougars 4 @ Fort Wayne TinCaps 6

Lendy Castillo sucks. There. After 6 shitty innings by Castillo, Justin Amlung struckout 2 in an inning of work. Steve Perakslis gave up a hit in 1 inning. He also struck a batter out. Did I mention that Lendy Castillo is terrible? He is.

Pin-Chieh Chen was 1-4 with a walk. Dan Vogelbach was 0-4 with a walk and his 2nd stolen base of the year. Go figure.

Rock Shoulders, Marco Hernandez and Willson Contreras were each 1-3. Both Shoulders and Hernandez took a walk. Bijan Radenmacher was 2-4.

Lendy Castillo still sucks. In case I have not been clear, Lendy Castillo blows ass. Ass.

JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-22-13

Iowa Cubs 5 @ Memphis Redbirds 2

Brooks Raley gave up 5 hits and 2 runs in 5.1 innings. He walked 2 and struckout 3. Zach Putnam, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker finished the game without allowing any runs. He did give up 3 hits and walked 3 while striking out 5.

1B Brad Nelson was 2-4 with a home run and a strikeout. I expected to be writing his name in these recaps frequently, but he's gotten off to a slow start. Nelson is the perfect example of a quad-A talent.

Brian Bogusevic was 2-4 with a double. Ian Stewart and Logan Watkins were both 1-3 with a double. Watkins also walked twice.

Montgomery Biscuits and Gravy 3 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 9

Eric Jokisch gave up 8 hits and 3 runs, only 1 of which was earned, in 6.1 innings. He struckout 3 and walked 2. He has an impressive 1.11 ERA over his first four starts and this last one was actually his worst. He's struckout 20 and walked 5 over 24.1 innings. He's allowed 19 hits.

Brian Schlitter threw the final 2.2 innings, didn't allow a hit or a run and struck a batter out.

Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a home run. Everyone else in the lineup had one hit with the exception of Ronald Torreyes who went 0-3.

Matt Szczur and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4 with a double. Jae-Hoon Ha and Rafael Lopez were each 1-3 with a double and a walk.

Daytona Cubs 7 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 4

In Austin Kirk's 4th start of the season he threw 5 innings and allowed 4 hits and runs. He also gave up a home run. However, He struckout 8 and walked 2. It was his best strikeout to walk ratio of the season. In 18 innings he's struckout 16 and walked 10.

Zach Cates walked a batter in 1.1 innings. He didn't allow any hits or runs. Hunter Cervenka walked a batter and struckout 2 in 2.2 innings.

Javier Baez had a good day at the plate. He was 3-5 with a double and a strikeout. Over his last 10 he's started to hit, but still has not gotten on base nearly enough. His batting average is just over .300 and his OBP is .289. He's slugged over .550 so he's made up for it, but over that span he has 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. On the season he has 24 strikeouts and 2 walks and a .250ish OBP.

Zeke DeVoss was 0-3 with 2 walks. This guy can get on base. He's struggled a bit over the last 10. His batting average is barely over .200 and his slugging is under .300, but his OBP is over .425.

Dustin Geiger was 3-5 and Jorge Soler was 0-5. That's the first 0-fer I can remember for Soler.

Peoria Chiefs 9 @ Kane County Cougars 6

Michael Heesch is off to a pretty good start this season. He threw 6 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2, struckout 5 and did allow a home run. In 3 starts this year, he's thrown 14 innings, allowed 11 hits and 5 earned runs. He has allowed 9 overall runs, a 5 walk and 12 strikeout rate isn't too bad. It's not great by any means, but it could be a lot worse. He's had 2 pretty good starts and a terrible start.

I've known 3 guys in my life named Brian Smith. I met one in high school, another while in Iowa City and the other one in Des Moines. There's a writer on Fangraphs named with the same name, though his name is spelled Bryan. There's also a Brian Smith with the Cougars and he sucked in his most recent outing. He allowed 3 hits, walked 2 and gave up 5 runs though only 1 was earned.

Smith is a left-handed reliever born on December 12, 1992. In 8 innings this year he's walked 7 and struckout 7.

Matt Iannazzo pitched 2.1 innings, gave up 5 hits and walked 3 and escaped while allowing only 2runs.

Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a home run and Marco Hernandez was also 2-4. His two hits were doubles. Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with a walk and Gioskar Amaya was 2-5. Jeimer Candelario had 2 walks and a hit in 5 plate appearances.

JoT: Cubs Minor League Recap 4-14-13

Alburquerque Isotops 1 @ Iowa Cubs 4

Chris Rusin made his 3rd start of the season for the I-Cubs on Sunday. He had his best start of the year. He had allowed 7 runs (6 earned) over his previous 11 innings of work while striking out only 6 and walking 6. On Sunday he threw 7 innings, allowed just 4 hits and a run while striking out 4 and walking no one.

Zach Putnam got the 2-inning save and didn't surrender any hits or runs. He walked 1 while striking out 3.

The Cubs had just 6 hits and Brian Bogusevic was the only Cub with more than one. He was 2-4 with a run scored. Brett Jackson got the day off and Bogusevic started in CF and led off. Darwin Barney filled in for Logan Watkins. Barney was 0-1 with a strikeout and 3 walks.

Ian Stewart began his rehab at Iowa and was 0-3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts.

Brad Nelson, Darnell McDonald and Luis Flores were each 1-4. Chris Rusin added a hit in 3 plate appearances.

Chattanooga Lookouts 3 @ Tennessee Smokies 7

Dae-Eun Rhee is off to an interesting start. He walked 3 and struckout only 1 in his first start last week, but allowed just 2 hits and a run in 4.1 innings. On Sunday he threw 6 innings, allowed just a single hit and no runs or walks while striking out 3. He's allowed just 3 hits in 10.1 innings, but has gotten a little lucky as far as BABIP goes. Better to be lucky than unlucky.

Rhee was once a prospect who had a high ceiling, but was derailed with injuries very early in his career. He either never fully recovered or simply didn't have the stuff to make it as a lot of people though.

Zach Rosscup strukcout 3 and walked 0 in an inning of work. He did allow 2 hits and a run though. Kevin Rhoderick allocked 2 hits and 2 runs while walking 1 and striking out 1 in an inning of work. Brian Schlitter struck out a batter and allowed a hit in his inning.

Jae-Hoon Ha was 3-3 with a double and a walk. LF Rubi Silva and 2B Ronald Torreyes also had multi-hit games. Torreyes was 2-3 with a walk and Silva was 2-4 with a strikeout.

Torreyes came of the DL on Friday and has 4 hits and 3 walks in 9 plate appearances. He was the best player the Cubs got in return from the Reds for Sean Marshall after the 2011 season (they also got Travis Wood). The guy can hit, but got off to a slow start in High A last season. He did turn it around late in the season and ended up with a respectable line.

He's just 20 years old and already in AA so he's very young for the level. He might be the youngest position player in the Southern League. Among players with 17 at-bats (qualifed hitters), Arismendy Alcantara is the 2nd youngest player and Torreyes is younger than him, as well as the player above Alcantara.

I'll have a prospect profile for Torreyes next week. I think Myles may have overlooked Torreyes in his prospect rankings.

Alcantara and Matt Szczur were each 1-4. Alcantara struckout once and Szczur struckout twice. Szczur stole his 5th base of the season. Jonathon Mota was 2-4.

Daytona Cubs 3 @ Tampa Yankees 1

Zach Cates walked 3 and struckout 4 in 6 innings of work. He allowed 4 hits and a run. Austin Reed pitched the next 2 innings and allowed 3 hits, no runs, no walks and struckout 2. Peacekeeper Frank Del Valle got his 2nd save and struckout the side in the 9th.

Stephen Bruno, Dustin Geiger and Micah Gibbs were each 2-4. One of the hits for Gibbs was a double. The only other hits in the Cubs lineup belonged to Ben Carhart (1-4) and Javier Baez (1-4). Each player doubled.

Kane County Cougars @ Wisconsin Timber Rattlers double header postponed

Journeymen of Tomorrow: 4-9-13

Iowa Cubs 2 @ Round Rock Express 4

The Iowa Cubs are off to a fantastic 0-6 start after losing yet again last night.

Chris Rusin threw 6 innings and allowed 7 hits and 4 runs. He walked 4, hit a batter, allowed a home run and struckout only 2. To give up only 4 runs was rather lucky. In two starts Rusin has walked and struckout 6, allowed 7 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits in 11 IP. He's also hit a batter.

Zach Putnam and Rafael Dolis each threw an inning and allowed a hit. Putnam struck a batter out.

Brett Jackson's new swing was 2-4 with a double and a strikeout. Darnell McDonald was 1-3 with a home run and a walk while Ty Wright was 2-4.

The Cubs had only 7 hits so there's just not a lot to talk about.

Clearwater Threshers 5 @ Daytona Cubs 4

Zach Cates only threw 3.2 innings and allowed 6 hits, but he struckout 7 and didn't walk a single batter. 3 runs ended up scoring, but thanks to 4 Cubs errors, only 1 of them was earned. Cates isn't a strikeout pitcher though. He was acquired along with Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. Last season he struckout only 46 in 65.1 innings of work.

Eduardo Figueroa pitched 2.2 innings, allowed a hit and walked 2. He gave up 2 runs and struckout 3. Sheldon McDonald also threw 2.2 innings. He didn't allow any runs. He gave up 2 hits, walked 2 and struckout a batter.

Dustin Geiger had a bad night. A really bad night. He was 1-4 at the plate with a strikeout, but committed 3 throwing errors. That's hard to do.

Zeke DeVoss hit his first home run of the season. Tim Saunders was 0-2 with a walk before being replaced by Taiwan Easterling who went 0-1. Not sure what happened to Saunders. If anything.

Javier Baez has been struggling. He was 1-5 with a triple and 2 more strikeouts. He's struckout 8 times in 22 plate appearances and hasn't drawn a walk yet. He's struckout in over 20% of his plate appearances in the minor leagues so far and it increased to 24.4% last year at Daytona. The season is young and the sample size is small, but that's a lot of strikeouts so early in the season. And no walks.

On the other hand, Jorge Soler has struckout only 3 times and has 3 walks so far this year. He's also hit a couple home runs. Soler was 2-4 with a walk and a strikeout last night.

LF John Andreoli was 1-2 with 2 walks. He moved to CF when Easterling replaced Saunders.

Clinton LuMberKinGs 5 @ Kane County Cougars 6

After getting hit awfully hard in his 2013 debut, Pierce Johnson rebounded and had a fairly decent outing. He threw 5 innings, allowed 6 hits and walked 2 while striking out 4 and allowing 2 runs. It's not at all a great outing, but it's much improved over his opening day start.

Jeffry Antigua pitched 3 innings, allowed 4 hits and a run while walking 0 and striking out 1. Eduardo Orozco pitched an inning, didn't allow a hit, but walked a batter who scored (another one scored also) and struckout no one.

CF Oliver Zapata has cooled off. He was 0-5 today with a strikeout and is 0-9 in the last 2 games with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Gioskar Amaya was 2-5 and struckout in every plate appearance he didn't get a hit.

The 2 through 6 hitters in this lineup combined for 11 hits. Along with Amaya's 2-5, Dan Vogelbach was 3-5. Jeimer Candelario was 2-5, Rock Shoulders was 2-3 with a home run (2nd on the season) and a walk.

In the 6th spot, Marco Hernandez was 2-4 with a couple runs scored. We haven't said his name much so far this year. He was 1-18 with 3 strikeouts prior to today's game. He also had a stolen base today.

RF Bijan Radenmacher was 2-3 with a double and a walk. After an 0-9 start, he's 5 for his last 10 with a walk.

How good is Anthony Rizzo?

Not long after the Cubs hired Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, the two traded Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates. Rizzo had just completed his age 21 season with the Padres and to say it didn't go well would be putting it nicely. Still, he had hit well in the minor leagues and obviously Theo and Hoyer loved what this kid had to offer.

Rizzo was sent to AAA Iowa to begin the season and hit the crap out of the ball. He was promoted to Chicago midway through the season and put together a very strong season. He turned 23 in early August, but for baseball purposes it was his age 22 season (age as of June 30th). It was an old age 22 season, but still 22 according to the way people have traditionally organized it.

For the purposes of much of this post, I'm going to ignore the 51 OPS+ over 153 plate appearances in 2011. Instead, I'm primarily going to focus on the 368 PA of 119 OPS+ baseball. I was curious where that season would rank among first basemen at a similar age if his 2012 was the only season he had.

The question is, what criteria do we use to compare his 2012 to historical results? I went with careers spanning multiple seasons on Baseball Reference's Play Index. It was the first choice to make. Then I had to pick age and obviously we'd want to include younger players because it's even more impressive to do what Rizzo did (or even close to it) while being younger than he was. I also wanted to include the age 23 season for players because Rizzo was close to that and because there really isn't a whole lot of difference between the two. 16-23 it is.

I wanted the first part of a player's career since I'm ignoring Rizzo's 2011 and treating 2012 as his first season. Knowing I'd have to choose plate appearances later, I decided to go with a player's first season through his third season. I'm interested in how he compares to 1st basemen so while a shortstop hitting even close to as well as he did would be far more impressive, it's not relevant to what I want to know.

I decided to go with a player who played at least half his games at 1st base figuring if the player could still play half his games elsewhere, he might be a better overall player, but also a player who will eventually play first base full time. I could probably safely reduce that to 25% and still get a pool of players who were primarily 1st basemen throughout their careers.

Rizzo had 368 plate appearances last season so I used a minimum of 300 PA.

Here's the list:

Player	Age	From	To	PA	OPS+
Johnny Mize	23-23	1936	1936	469	162
Mark McGwire	22-23	1986	1987	699	157
Jimmie Foxx	17-23	1925	1931	2568	154
Ron Blomberg	20-23	1969	1972	564	150
Jim Bottomley	22-23	1922	1923	748	150
Alvin Davis	23-23	1984	1984	678	147
Lou Gehrig	20-23	1923	1926	1235	144
Willie McCovey	21-23	1959	1961	900	142
Hank Greenberg	19-23	1930	1934	1167	140
Jeff Bagwell	23-23	1991	1991	650	139
Will Clark	22-23	1986	1987	1046	139
Don Mattingly	21-23	1982	1984	980	139
Orlando Cepeda	20-23	1958	1961	2543	137
Earl Torgeson	23-23	1947	1947	487	136
Babe Herman	23-23	1926	1926	554	136
Prince Fielder	21-23	2005	2007	1391	132
James Loney	22-23	2006	2007	486	132
John Mayberry	19-23	1968	1972	931	132
Hal Trosky	20-23	1933	1936	2083	132
Eddie Murray	21-23	1977	1979	2043	131
Bob Robertson	20-23	1967	1970	594	128
Stuffy McInnis	18-23	1909	1914	2545	128
Kent Hrbek	21-23	1981	1983	1246	127
Ed Konetchy	21-23	1907	1909	1655	127
George Sisler	22-23	1915	1916	939	123
George Scott	22-23	1966	1967	1322	122
Don Hurst	22-23	1928	1929	1167	122
Vic Saier	20-23	1911	1914	2060	122
Jason Thompson	21-23	1976	1978	1823	121
Joe Hauser	23-23	1922	1922	408	121
Joe Judge	21-23	1915	1917	901	121
John Olerud	20-23	1989	1992	1507	120
Keith Hernandez	20-23	1974	1977	1321	120
Dick Hoblitzell	19-23	1908	1912	2724	117
Bob Chance	22-23	1963	1964	493	116
Wally Pipp	20-23	1913	1916	1211	116
Ike Davis	23-23	2010	2010	601	115
Freddie Freeman	20-22	2010	2012	1279	113
Nate Colbert	20-23	1966	1969	595	113
Joe Cunningham	22-22	1954	1954	356	113
Fred Merkle	18-23	1907	1912	2066	112
Billy Butler	21-23	2007	2009	1510	111
Justin Morneau	22-23	2003	2004	427	109
Dick Gernert	23-23	1952	1952	407	109
Chris Chambliss	22-23	1971	1972	957	108
Bill White	22-22	1956	1956	568	108
George Burns	21-23	1914	1916	1507	108
Al Oliver	21-23	1968	1970	1119	107
Tony Horton	19-23	1964	1968	1280	107
Pat Burrell	23-23	2000	2000	474	106
Brad Fullmer	22-23	1997	1998	590	106
Hal Chase	22-23	1905	1906	1138	105
Darin Erstad	22-23	1996	1997	834	104
John Ellis	20-23	1969	1972	729	104
Chris Davis	22-23	2008	2009	736	103
Travis Lee	23-23	1998	1998	630	103
Mike Ivie	18-23	1971	1976	912	103
Art Shires	21-23	1928	1930	762	103
Joe Nealon	21-22	1906	1907	1051	103
Mark Teixeira	23-23	2003	2003	589	102
David Ortiz	21-23	1997	1999	402	102
Sean Casey	22-23	1997	1998	363	102
Ted Kluszewski	22-23	1947	1948	408	102
Daric Barton	21-23	2007	2009	799	101
Tony Perez	22-23	1964	1965	335	101
Ed Stevens	20-23	1945	1948	1059	101
Eric Hosmer	21-22	2011	2012	1161	100

Dick Hoblitzell's name is bolded in red because Anthony Rizzo's 2012 would slide right above him and right after Keith Hernandez. If that's all Rizzo had done so far, it would be good for 35th. However, Rizzo's 2012 season had just 368 PA and only Joe Cunningham, Sean Casey and Tony Perez had fewer plate appearances than Rizzo in 2012. The number of plate appearances are also important because if a player has 2000 plate appearances prior to 23 then he was probably more qualified to play than someone who had just 368. Rizzo, though, has over 500 in his career so far so we have to consider that, but there are still many on the list with more than he had.

If we were interested, and clearly I am since I'm writing this, we could take a look at those who performed offensively most similar to Rizzo did in 2012 to get an idea of how he might perform over the next 5 seasons (years before free agency). Here it is:

	OPS+	Notes
George Sisler	160	HOF
George Scott	101
Don Hurst	112
Vic Saier	118	played only 4 more seasons over 5 years
Jason Thompson	128
Joe Hauser	117	played only 5 more years over 7 years
Joe Judge	120
John Olerud	137
Keith Hernandez	135
Dick Hoblitzell	106	played only 6 more years
Bob Chance	88	played only 4 more seasons over 5 years
Wally Pipp	105
Ike Davis	NA	Active player

One Hall of Famer in George Sisler and only Bob Chance was worse than average at the plate over the next 5 years. The average OPS+ of these players from the first table was 120 and over the next 5 years the average was 119. I don't believe first basemen have generally had long careers, but I thought it was interesting that in this group, 4 of the players played less than 6 years after the age of 23 and 2 of them didn't even make it 5 seasons.

Prior to now, we've been ignoring Rizzo's 2011 season. So far in his career he has a 100 OPS+, which puts him right after Eric Hosmer on the first list, which is why I cut the list off where I did. Looking at the entire career we find he'd rank 68th on the original list. Several of these guys weren't your average 1st baseman. They piled up the triples and stolen bases, something that Rizzo will not ever do. He has 1 career triple and only 5 stolen bases. That's not a bad thing, but many of these guys were adding value in ways that Rizzo never will.

If we consider the whole career and now look at the most similar players, this is what we get for production over their next 5 years.

	OPS+	Notes
Sean Casey	111
Ted Kluszewski	118
Daric Barton	101	3 seasons
Tony Perez	131	HOF
Ed Stevens	31	played only 1 season
Eric Hosmer	NA
Anthony Rizzo	NA
Paul Konerko	114
Elbie Fletcher	130
Ken Harrelson	118
Billy Goodman	106
Joe Pepitone	109

The average of this group is 107.

I'm willing to give Rizzo's 2011 less weight than we typically would, but it still happened. What this means is that I think he'll do better than this group, but maybe not as well as the earlier group. But Rizzo is just one player so he could end up being in the Hall of Fame like 2 comparables. He could end up being out of the league for various reasons in short time too. It's probably somewhere in the middle. Expecting a Hall of Fame career is a bit riduclous and anticipating his career ends soon is equally ridiculous.

Revisiting the Cubs offseason transactions

Since the Cubs changed management this past offseason I thought it might be fun to look back at the transactions and see how they've turned out so far. Keep in mind these are a final analysis. There's still much time left for some of these deals to look different than they currently do. I considered breaking this into parts, but decided to post it at once instead.

NOVEMBER

► November 30, 2011: the Cubs signed David DeJesus

Contract: 2-year, $10 million. The pact pays DeJesus $4.25 million each in 2012 and 2013. There is a $6.5 million option for 2014 or a $1.5 million buyout.

At the time: DeJesus was worth $15.2 million over 2 years using CAIRO, Bill James and Oliver projections (as well as an increase to them due to him switching leagues). This was prior to any projection for him as a Cub. The PECOTA projection had him worth 1.8 WARP in 2012 and 1.1 WARP in 2013 so it closely matches our early estimate. Picking up the option was probably not going to happen unless DeJesus exceeded expectations.

Early analysis: DeJesus was going to help improve the Cubs defense and baserunning, which had been horrible for some time. He was a solid bat coming off a down season so there was even a reason to think he might actually exceed expectations. Considering the cost, there was really nothing to dislike about the contract.

Performance: He's played in 96 games and about one-third of them have come in CF. He's hit .262/.352/.378. His .320 wOBA comes out to a 95 wRC+, which is the exact same as it was in 2011. UZR thinks he's been a below average fielder (-4) and his UBR only slightly better than average on the bases (0.4). His DRS is -4 in CF and 0 in RF so the two metrics are in agreement about his defense (FRAA has him at -2.9 also).

Overall he's been worth .7 fWAR, .4 rWAR and .2 WARP (Prospectus). Average them if you wish and you get .4. PECOTA projects another .5 WARP the rest of the way, which would give him .7 WARP on the season. We should probably expect by the end of the season he'll be just above 1 WAR, which makes him worth the money he was paid in 2012 and not likely worth the additional $5.75 million he's owed. Things could change by this time next year, but for now this hasn't been a very good deal for the Cubs.

DECEMBER

► December 8, 2011: Cubs trade Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu for Casey Weathers and Ian Stewart

Contracts: Colvin could be arbitration eligible after this season, but is currently making about league minimum. DJ LeMahieu would be under club control for 6 years. Stewart was 2nd year arbitration eligible and had already agreed to a 1-year, $2.2 million contract. Casey Weathers had no MLB service time.

At the time: The trade included 3 picks drafted in the 1st round. The two the Cubs acquired were top 10 picks and Colvin was selected 13th overall. LeMahieu was picked in the 2nd round.

Early Analysis: I don't remember having much to say about this trade. I know it wasn't a great trade and it wasn't a bad trade at the time. It was just OK. I think Baseball Prospectus said at the time that there were no winners except for the players who get to move to new teams. The Cubs probably got a bat that was a safer bet to produce, but it came at a higher price.

Performance: Ian Stewart has hit .201/.292/.335 (.265 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and is done for the season. Both DRS and UZR agree he's a slightly better than average fielder, which is a huge upgrade from Aramis Ramirez. However, Ramirez more than made up for his defensive issues and Stewart has not come close. His FWAR is 0.0, rWAR is -0.1 and WARP is -0.7 (average of -0.2). Considering the salary, the Cubs haven't come close to getting what they've paid for and he's now someone who is likely to be non-tendered.

Casey Weathers spent much of the season injured and overall he's in AA at the age of 27. He's thrown 28.2 innings and has an ERA of 5.97 and an FIP approaching 7. The guy walks everybody on the planet. You could face Weathers and you'd be 0-0 with a walk. Get this, Weathers has a really good strikeout rate, but his walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate. Hard to believe.

DJ Lemanieu has had a couple stints with the Rockies this season and it hasn't gone well in 31 games. He was league average at AAA, which doesn't say a whole lot.

Tyler Colvin has once again found his power stroke. In 258 PA he's batting .282/.318/.560 with a .367 wOBA, which is good for a 121 wRC+. He's played primarily in RF, but has also logged a lot of innings in CF, LF and 1B. The defensive metrics are in agreement that he's been below average. FRAA is the highest for him and it's -0.1. He's been worth 1.3 fWAR, 0.6 WARP and 0.8 rWAR (average 0.9). He'll surely regress some (ZiPS has him at .338 wOBA the rest of the way compared to .303 for Stewart).

This is a trade the Cubs would like to have a do over on. It's not one of those trades they'll regret forever. Tyler Colvin has proven he belongs on an MLB roster although he may not be an everyday starter. Factoring in the salary you'd obviously prefer the left handed hitting outfielder who is working at league minimum to someone like Stewart. Add in the fact that Lemahieu might actually provide some depth to an organization at some point and the secondary players involved in the trade make this an obvious win for the Rockies. Not a huge win, but a win.

This trade took place on the final day of the Winter Meetings (Rule 5 Draft). The Cubs also took Lendy Castillo from some organization who probably doesn't regret losing him one damn bit.

► December 12, 2011: Cubs sign Joe Mather

Contract: He's not yet arbitration eligible. He entered the season with just over 1 year of service time and won't be eligible for arbitration until 2014.

At the time: Mather was signed along with 9 other players over a 3 week span in December for the purpose of filling out their spring training roster. Even if he managed to make the team he wasn't expected to provide much of anything.

Early Analysis: There was none. It was a transaction that most people though was irrelevant along with the many others they signed.

Performance: Mather has hit .221/.273/.356. His wOBA is .273 and his wRC+ is 63. He's played all around the field, but primarily at CF and 3B. He's chipped in 51 innings in LF, 7 in RF and all of 2 at 1st. His defense has been average to a bit below average on the season. His fWAR and WARP are both -0.4 and his rWAR is -1.3. The average of the 3 is -0.7. He's only been on the roster because the Cubs suck and the only reason I'm even including him here is because he's stuck at the MLB level all season, but that's not an indication of how he's played. If they were paying him anything more than league minimum he'd be gone and even at league minimum he barely deserves the shot he was given.

► December 23, 2011: Cubs trade Sean Marshall to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes

Contract: Marshall was owed $3.1 million in 2012. The Reds subsequently extended him through the 2015 season, but that's irrelevant to us. Wood had just over a year of service time so was still a couple years of service time away from being arbitration eligible. Sappelt had 5 to 6 more years before free agency and Torreyes is in High A.

At the time: Before it was known who the two minor leaguers were, this was a fantastic trade for the Cubs. Wood only for Marshall would have been a good haul. Getting Sappelt and especially Torreyes in the deal only sweetens it.

Early Analysis: Marshall probably should have been the Cubs closer instead of Marmol over the last 2 to 3 seasons. The Cubs didn't do it and despite Marshall being a setup man, he was still damn valuable. He was just a reliever and the limited innings obviously limited his value, but the Cubs turned a relatively small trade surplus into 3 players.

Performance: Marshall has kept doing what he'd done in Chicago. He has an impressive 2.36 ERA and 2.32 FIP to go along with 1.1 fWAR. His rWAR is 1.3 and his WARP 1.0 (average 1.1). He's provided value above his salary this year to the Reds.

Travis Wood has had an up and down season. He was terrible in spring training and lost his grip on the rotation. He spent some time in AAA posting a solid, but unspectacular 3.76 FIP even though his ERA 4.57. At the big leagues he hasn't been very good overall. His 4.77 ERA looks good compared to his 5.62 FIP. That's good for -0.2 fWAR. His rWAR is -0.1 and his WARP is 0.2 (average 0.0). Wood is still 25 and there's more than enough reason to think he can contribute something over the next few seasons, but back of the rotation is probably his ceiling at this point. He might be better off as a LOOGY.

Dave Sappelt hit .256/.311/.345 at AAA this year. That's a .300 wOBA and a 71 wRC+. At 25 years old he probably doesn't have much of any career at the big league level ahead of him.

Torreyes is only 19 and already at High A where he has hit .271/.332/.399. That's a .338 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Considering how poorly he started, that's quite good. After May his OPS was just a little over .500. He had an OPS of .923 in June and .849 in July. He's kept hitting in August. Considering the age, he's had a damn good season so far.

The Cubs probably won't get much out of Wood and probably nothing from Sappelt, but they'll probably get enough from Wood to make the trade a good one by the time it ends. There's always the possibility Wood surprises though with his stuff I just wouldn't count on it. The real hope for making this as fantastic a trade as it was at the time is for Torreyes who could have a bright future in front of him.

JANUARY

► January 3, 2012: Cubs sign Reed Johnson

Contract: 1-year, $1.5 million

At the time: After hitting .309/.348/.367 (.354 wOBA, 116 wRC+) in 266 PA in 2011, re-signing Reed Johnson was a no-brainer. In 2011 his average WAR was 1.0 and as a 4th outfielder hitting primarily against lefties it was a safe bet he'd produce again.

Early Analysis: For $1.5 million there was no reason to be anything other than happy to get a guy of his quality to return.

Performance: In 183 PA Reed hit .302/.355/.444 prior to being traded to the Braves. His wOBA with the Cubs was .346 (112 wRC+) and he did exactly what the team expected (140 wRC+ vs lefties).

► January 5, 2012: Cubs trade Carlos Zambrano to Miami Marlins for Chris Volstad

Contract: Carlos Zambrano and all but the league minimum (about $17.5 million) were sent to the Marlins for Chris Volstad who somehow turned 3 mediocre to bad seasons in a $2.7 million first year arbitration salary.

At the time: The Cubs should have paid no more than about $10-11 million AND received Chris Volstad or someone like him. This was a bad trade when it was made. If you looked only at the CAIRO projections it matched up perfectly, but there were other projections. That's about the best that can be said: using one projection system the trade wasn't bad.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded away someone who was projected to be worth about 1.1 WAR for someone who was projected to be about replacement level or maybe a little bit better. Not only that, the Cubs send the Marlins buckets of cash and had to pay Volstad more than he ever deserved. It was the Cubs who signed this contract on January 17th. I can't even imagine what Volstad was asking for. There's almost no way he would have won in arbitration. Take the chance. Offer the guy what he's worth, which is about a million bucks or less. Fuck this $2.7 million shit.

Performance: Volstad has somehow managed enough of a decent FIP (4.27) to be worth .6 fWAR. That's rather impressive considering he's given runs away for free this year. Here, take some runs. I'm Chris Volstad and I don't need them! I've got a decent FIP. Volstad's rWAR is -1.3 and his WARP is 0.0. Average them together and you get -0.2. Not surprisingly, he's been terrible and he's done while making way more money that he should have. And oh yeah, the Cubs sent a billion bucks to Miami too.

Zambrano got off a solid start this year, but his FIP at this point (4.56) matches his FIP from a year ago (4.59). He's struckout a few more batters, but walks a lot more. Z has been worth .8 fWAR, .5 rWAR and -0.2 WARP (average 0.4).

The value difference is only about a win, but the Cubs are paying $20.2 million for below replacement production.

► January 6, 2012: Cubs trade Andrew Cashner with Kyung-Min Na to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates

Contract: All the players were auto-renewal (league minimum)

At the time: How could you not love turning a relief pitcher into a 22 year old 1st basemen? I don't even care if he had half the potential that Rizzo had, you'd have to love it.

Early Analysis: The Cubs traded a former top prospect in Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo. The two other players involved were just there for the fun of it. We'll talk about them, but not much. I don't think this needs much analysis. This was an obvious win for the Cubs at the time of the trade. I'm shocked that 1) Josh Byrnes would even consider such a trade and 2) that the Padres owner would even allow it. If you get a chance to trade a highly touted pitching prospect for a highly touted position player you make that trade almost every time. You better than have an explanation why you would or wouldn't make such a trade and preferring Yonder Allonso and Andrew Cashner over Rizzo ain't one of them.

Performance: Cashner has, like always, had some injury issues. He was moved back to the rotation, which helps lessen the damage of this trade if Cashner could ever stay healthy. That's unlikely. All Rizzo has done was tear up AAA .304/.346/.528 (.369, 128). He's been worth .9 fWAR, .9 rWAR and .8 WARP in less than 150 plate appearances. He's probably not this good, but for a guy who is 22 and who will only get better he's awfully damn valuable.

Zach Cates is 22 and has split the season between High A and Low A. He's been terrible. Kyung-Min Na has been equally terrible.

► January 10, 2012: Cubs sign Paul Maholm

Contract: 1 year, $4.75 million with a club option for $6.5 million or a $0.5 million buyout (minimum earned salary would be $5.25 million)

At the time: Based on the available projections Maholm's average projected WAR was a little over 1. This gave him a value of about $6.5 million for one year.

Early Analysis: Maholm was quietly putting together a solid career in Pittsburgh. This was a good signing at the time and the projections prior to the season that I listed above underestimated his talent. Berselius ran them, as he did for other pitchers, and he came up with 2.3 WAR. What's not to like about signing a guy to produce a win when you can reasonably expect more than 2?

Performance: As Berselius has been saying throughout the season, Paul Maholm did Paul Maholm things. In 120.1 innings he didn't walk many (2.5 per 9), strikeout a lot (6 per 9), had a 3.74 ERA and 4.13 FIP. His fWAR was 1.5, rWAR was 1.4 and for some unknown reason BPro's WARP was 0.0. PECOTA also projected only .6 WARP so if you went strictly on that projection and their value metric it didn't work out so well.

Then again, the Cubs acquired one of the best pitching prospects entering the season for Maholm so yes, it worked out wonderfully. Although Arodys Vizcaino is recovering from Tommy John surgery, there's every reason to think he can bounce back and return to being the dominant pitcher he was. The question remains whether he can do that as a starter or as a reliever at the big league level. Either way, the Cubs ended up getting tremendous value for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson. That trade alone more than justifies both contracts.

► January 13, 2012: Cubs sign Kerry Wood

Contract: 1 year, $3 million with a club option and no buyout

At the time: I wasn't as excited about this as a lot of Cubs fans were. I didn't think Kerry Wood deserved much of anything from the Cubs. I just didn't think he was good enough for the $4 million he wanted.

Early Analysis: What I just said can be put here too. It was only $3 million so it's not a big deal, but I'd have passed.

Performance: Wood retired in May after not pitching well early on. Presumably he didn't collect any additional paychecks so this ended up being for nothing. Cubs lost a little bit, but who really cares?

FEBRUARY

► February 2, 2012: Cubs sign Gerardo Concepcion

Contract: While the deal wasn't official until March 11, we learned in early February the Cubs and Concepcion had agreed a 5-year contract paying him $6 million. He was also added to the 40-man roster and as a result immediately began using his available option years.

At the time: This was a 20 year old who had struckout under 5 and walked just under 4 in his one year in Cuba (age 18). Giving this guy a contract worth millions was mind boggling and it was even more bizarre he'd be put on the 40-man roster.

Early Analysis: Everything about this signing was based on projection. The scouts loved him. The numbers weren't fantastic, but we only had a small sample. It was a ton of money and a huge commitment that, in my opinion, was destined to fail from the start.

Performance: I'm not sure what's worse about his performance. Is it the 70 hits allowed 52.1 innings in Low A? Is it the 30 walks (5.2 per 9, 12%)? The 28 strikeouts (4.8 per 9, 11.2%)? The 4 balks? Seriously, it's gotta be the balks. How can you balk 4 times in Low A? Among qualified pitchers (apparently somewhere around 70 innings) there is only 1 pitcher who has balked more than 4 times (David Goforth, 7). He's done so in more than twice the innings. If it's not all of that, what about the 6 home runs? This guy is fucking terrible. He makes Hayden Simpson look like Cy Young. What a shit contract at the time and it's looking even dumber now. One scout from another team who recently saw him said the Cubs keep trying to say it's the mechanics, but if you were at a junior college game and saw this guy pitch you'd leave. Even Hayden Simpson kept people in their seats at D2 games.

► February 21, 2012: Cubs trade Chris Carpenter and Aaron Kurcz to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein

Contract: Carpenter and Kurcz were auto-renewal player

At the time: The Cubs acquired one of the best GM's in the game and gave up only a relief pitcher. There are arguments that the Cubs shouldn't have even been willing to give anyone up, but losing an injury prone relief pitcher for Theo is no big deal. The Cubs hired Theo in October so he'd been on the job 4 months by this time anyway.

Early Analysis: see above

Performance: Carpenter has been injured, but Kurcz has been damn good at the age of 21 at AA. He turns 22 tomorrow and so far this year in AA he's struckout 12.9 batters per 9 though he has walked 4.8 per 9. He's struckout 32.1% of the batters faced and walked 12.1% of them. That's an excellent K-BB%. He's thrown 50.1 innings and has an ERA of 3.04 and an FIP of 3.10.

If you could sum Year One up in any way, I would probably go with this: throw crap at the wall and hope some of it sticks. While the Cubs did acquire a fantastic prospect in Anthony Rizzo, most of what they did this past offseason was rearranging the deck chairs. Along with the great trade for Rizzo, the Cubs sure acted dumb when they acquired Concepcion for about $6 million more than he was worth. Overall, you've got to be pleased with how the offseason turned out. Those expecting every transaction to turn to gold have quickly learned that isn't happening, but most of us already knew that.

The Children Are Our Future – Minor League Update Sponsored by TGI Friday’s

AZL Cubs

Shawon Dunston, Jr.'s minor league career has not gotten off to a fast start. He was 0-4 last night. After spending 71 plate appearances at Boise he was demoted to the AZL Cubs where he's been an improved hitter, but nothing that gets you excited. On the season he's hit .228/.291/.347. Albert Almora was 1-4 with a double and now has 3 hits in 17 at-bats. Jorge Soler was 2-4 and after 6 games he's hitting .292/.320/.542. Lendy Castillo threw 4 solid innings on assignment after contracting David Patton Syndrome. The Cubs will have to activate Castillo within 14 days or they have to offer him back to Philly. Considering he's been in the AZL for two weeks, I don't think the Cubs care one way or the other. Nor should they.

Boise

Gioskar Amaya was 2-5 with a triple and is now hitting .322/.388/.534. He and Marco Hernandez were similarly ranked by evaluators prior to this season, but Amaya has separated himself from Hernandez who was 2-4 last night, but after a miserable time in Peoria, he only has a .600 OPS at Boise. Hernandez was playing SS while Amaya was at 2nd last night. Dan Vogelbach has 8 hits in 4 games and 3 of them are doubles. Dude can hit.

Peoria

Wes Darvill was 2-4, but isn't hitting very well. Javier Baez continues to do what Baez does. He was 2-3 with a home run and a walk. The home run was the 11th of the season in just 50 games. He's added 8 doubles and 5 triples too. He's OPS'ing over 1.000 now. Zach Cates threw 5.1 innings, allowed 3 hits while striking out 7 and walking just 1. Sheldon McDonald and combined for 3.2 innings allowing just 2 hits, no runs, walking nobody and striking nobody out.

Daytona

Ronald Torreyes was hitless and the Daytona Cubs just got a less less interesting when Jae-Hoon Ha when unfortunately injured. Matt Szczur was promoted to AA to take his spot so there's not much to talk about with this team in my opinion. Robert Whitenack had a solid start, which reduced his ERA to 6.63 so there's that.

Tennessee

Szczur led off and played CF last night, but was 0-4 with a couple strikeouts. His promotion was deserved on its own and it's unfortunate how he got to Tennessee, but he's there. He hit better than anyone could have expected at Daytona. He transformed himself into one of the organization's more patient hitters (13.4% walk rate) and he has the tools to play CF and be a productive leadoff hitter at the big league level. Junior Lake was 2-4 with a couple doubles and is now hitting .293/.343/.438. Greg Rohan and Juan Apodaca each added a couple hits and Logan Watkins had 1. Zach Rosscup struckout 6 in 3.2 innigns of relief and didn't allow a hit. He did allow a couple walks and a couple runs.

Iowa

Not sure why it's even said anymore, but Brett Jackson struckout again last night. Just once this time. He's struckout in 10 consecutive games and has totaled 17 strikeouts over that time. July 17th is the only game in July in which he's played and didn't strikeout. Jackson's game log on First Inning goes back to June 21st and that July 17th game is the only game he didn't strikeout. Josh Vitters was 1-4 with a walk and some guy named Chris Volstad, can't be the Chris Volstad, actually pitched a very good game. He threw 8 scoreless innings, allowed 4 hits, 3 walks and 5 strikeouts.

Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been busy

The Cubs were having a rather quiet offseason until December 23rd when they traded Sean Marshall. In a span of one month they’ve traded Marshall, DJ LeMahieu, Tyler Colvin, Carlos Zambrano, Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Ha. All of them except Ha were on the team’s 40-man roster. A new front office trading current players is nothing new.

On July 5, 2002 Jim Hendry was promoted to GM. At the deadline they traded Darren Lewis. A few weeks later they traded Tom Gordon and Jeff Fassero. At the beginning of September they traded Bill Meuller. In November Hendry traded for Paul Bako. He then traded Todd Hundley. As the season neared he released former top prospect Kevin Orie. In free agency he added Shawn Estes, Ramon Martinez, Troy O’Leary, Tom Goodwin, Mark Guthrie and Mike Remlinger. The 2003 Cubs were significantly different than the 2002 team.

New executives tear bad teams apart and that’s what we’ve seen Theo and Jed doing. Let’s briefly go over the trades again.

On December 8th the Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. LeMahieu and Colvin are more than likely nothing more than back-ups, but Stewart does have some upside. I wouldn’t call this trade a win for either team except to say the Cubs added more upside than they gave away.

The second trade occurred on December 21st, but wasn’t officially official until the 23rd. Sean Marshall was traded to the Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. It was a great trade for the Cubs. Sean Marshall had a $6.5 million trade value and they received at least $20 million in value in return and possibly as much as $40-50 million. I still have no idea why the Reds would make this trade.

A few days ago the Cubs traded Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins for Chris Volstad. I’m not the biggest fan of this trade. I figured there was as much chance of Zambrano being a Cub next year as there was that I’d be the starting pitcher on Opening Day, but Volstad just doesn’t impress me. Aside from his 2008 rookie season he’s been pretty bad. He gives up home runs like people give out candy on Halloween. That’s not likely to improve in the hitter friendly Wrigley. He does keep the ball on the ground, but it seems every time it’s in the air it’s a home run. Let’s hope for a 100% ground ball rate. That being said, the money is a wash and the Cubs got something for someone who teams had little interest in.

Yesterday the Cubs completed a trade sending Andrew Cashner and minor leaguer Kyung-Min Ha to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and minor league Zach Cates. I like this trade a lot more today than I did yesterday. There was very little chance that Cashner was going to be used as a starter and even if he did it’s not like we can count on him to make even 20 starts. He has become a relief pitcher at this point so getting an every day player who is much younger and has more upside is nothing but a good thing.

In the meantime the Cubs have reportedly maintained interest in re-signing Kerry Wood, but before they can sign him they would have to remove someone from the 40-man roster. The most likely candidate would be one of the three left-handed relievers with little to no experience. Jeff Beliveau was added to the roster this offseason so that’s out. John Gaub and Scott Maine are the other two so I would think one of them would be taken off if they signed Wood. Or they could make another trade.

At this point there’s no reason at all to keep Matt Garza. Keep negotiating with multiple teams as I assume they are still doing and at some point I expect them to accept the best offer. I also expect the Cubs to trade an outfielder as they have 7 of them on the 40-man. They cannot trade Reed Johnson or David DeJesus as each were signed to free agent contracts this offseason. There’s little to no chance that they would trade Matt Szczur. That leaves Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, Tony Campana and Dave Sappelt. I can’t imagine they’d trade Sappelt as he’s valuable simply because he’s a cost-controlled player. They’d love to trade Soriano, but is any team going to take him? He has almost no value at all. I’d bet that Byrd gets traded yet this offseason, which will open a spot for Brett Jackson when he’s ready to be called up.

The Cubs have built themselves a very good and young offensive core to build around in the future. Brett Jackson is only 23 and is already the best outfielder in the Cubs organization. Anthony Rizzo had a disappointing rookie season, but he still has a great deal of potential. At just 22 years old he has a chance to be a middle of the order hitter for this team for many years. Starlin Castro is probably better than both of them and he’s also the youngest of the group.

If this group can develop as we hope and remain prison-free, the Cubs have a very good offensive core. We may soon see a lineup that includes the three of them at the top. Brett Jackson has more power than your typical leadoff hitter, but he gets on base an awful lot. He makes the pitcher work and has a lot of 5 and 6 pitch at-bats. He has plus speed so he can move himself into scoring position without help. Castro is more of a number 2 hitter even though he hit third a lot last year. He could develop into a legitimat middle of the order hitter. Rizzo has the potential to be a number 3 hitter. I expect we’ll see a lot of Jackson, Castro, Rizzo combinations in the order in the future. Hopefully they can all develop into middle of the order threats.

There is not this kind of young and talented core to build around when it comes to the pitching staff though. Dillon Maples may be the best pitcher in the organization and he hasn’t even thrown a professional pitch yet. Trey McNutt is the second best. Both of them may actually profile better as relievers. The good news is that there are several very good starting pitchers who will soon become free agents so the Cubs can begin to acquire top shelf pitching prospects and add veterans for the time being.

Continue reading “Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer have been busy”