Much has been written here in the last few days about the Cubs rotation injuries and what it means for the overall strength of the rotation. Most, or actually all of that has been negative. Sure, losing Garza can't be spun as a positive so I'm not going to do that.
As the resident optimist, I am here to assure you that the Cubs rotation is still better than last year and better by a wide margin compared to the rotation the Cubs ended the season with (Garzaless, Dempsterless and Samardzijaless).
The first thing we have to do as fans when trying to compare a rotation right now to a rotation from a previous season is to compare apples to apples. We want to compare this rotation to, for the purposes of this post, to last year's rotation by comparing the strength of each prior to the start of the season. Come July we can compare how the groups have performed, but right now, we have to compare pre-season to pre-season.
For last year's rotation, I'm only going to say two words: Jeff Samardzija.
I can't just say two words because, like Boyd Crowder, it takes me 40 words when 4 will do. See how I've already turned those two words into a bunch of crap? I'm good at that.
When the Cubs announced that Jeff Samardzija would be in last year's rotation it was maddening, funny and everything in between. He was the worst possible starting pitcher on the roster based on what we knew at this point a year ago. Clearly the Cubs knew something we didn't and good for them, but we didn't know that and anybody who wants to say that 40 innings of decent work in the bullpen in 2011 predicted the kind of season he had last year is full of it.
Ryan Dempster was the opening day starter last year. He was followed by Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija (not only did he make the roster, but he was the number 3 starter!), Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm. Based on their previous years, I think most people expected little to nothing from Samardzija and Volstad. Most of us figured Travis Wood would come up soon enough to replace one of them. He did. Volstad kind of sucked and went to the minors.
Using the OV projected playing time for 2012, the 5 members of the rotation were projected to be worth 7.9 WAR. The most recent CAIRO projections for the projected starting 5 this season is 7.8 WAR. Those 5 are Edwin Jackson (3.2), Matt Garza (2.4), Jeff Samardzija (1.6), Scott Feldman (1.2) and Scott Baker (0.4).
Our OV projected playing times for those 5 last year was 873 innings, CAIRO, due to recent injuries to some of these pitchers, is only projecting 607 innings. The projections are based on the last few years and, take Jeff Samardzija for example, he was a reliever prior to 2012 so he's only projected to throw 135 innings. Scott Baker is projected to throw only 30 innings.
Adjust those innings upwards and the rotation we expected this season is better than last year's. It's not a great rotation, but CAIRO and PECOTA have Samardzija projected much lower than a couple of the others.
Scott Baker has recorded an out this spring before having to undergo another MRI. Matt Garza is battling an injury and will miss at least the first monty of the season. The rotation is shaping up to be Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva. Samardzija, Jackson and Feldman are projected by CAIRO to be worth 6 WAR.
The CAIRO for Travis Wood is 1.9 WAR and it's 1.0 WAR for Villanueva. So the expected Cubs rotation is projected to be worth 8.9 WAR, which is better than last year's rotation to begin the season.
Even if the Cubs lose another pitcher or two to the DL, they're likely to be better than they were at the end of the season. Guys like Chris Rusin, Brooks Raley and others can't be expected to be nearly as bad as they were. Even a guy like Josh Vitters would improve upon his season last year because you can't do anything but improve.
Comments
dmick89 wrote:
Is a bear Catholic?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I have thread confusion. B’s is on top, but this is active?
Anyways, Bill James also thinks that ground ball pitchers are more injury prone, which I find interesting coming from a guy who has been watching baseball as analytically as long as he has.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
This is the active one. I posted mine about 20 seconds after Myles posted his last night and then unpublished it so it still had the timestamp from last night.
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
That was what I thought was most interesting. I’m skeptical of whether or not they’re worse pitchers, but I’m not as skeptical of the anecdotal evidence that they are injured for more frequently.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s also not something that’s a new argument for James. This is from the article:
dmick89Quote Reply
I should also point out that James later says that he’s been too radical in his belief that GB pitchers are worse.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
That’s interesting. Does it have to do with them keeping the ball down then?
WaLiQuote Reply
Chicago Cubs baseball is on the air! EJax pitching
WaLiQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
yeah, i remember that from a few years ago. it’s something that would be tough to tease out from the data, but could be true.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
It’s one of those things I hope the front office is or already has looked into. The more you know. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Anyone know if the Res Sox had fewer gb pitchers?
dmick89Quote Reply
GW wrote:
We’ve got big problems with race conditions here.
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
“Res Sox” is a funny word
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I hope the Cubs move to Rosemont and change their name to Res Sox.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t really know why, but I’m finding this thread to be entertaining (arguing about Dunkin Donuts pricing): http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/why-does-dunkin-donuts-charge-a-5-cent-levy-for-extra-consumption
dmick89Quote Reply
I think I saw Wanda
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
“Al likes ’em crispy” (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
not that i can tell, really.
gb:
lester
buchholz
aaron cook
julian tavarez
masterson (extreme gb, traded early-on)
melancon (traded for)
bard (sort of)
brad penny (ditto)
matt clement
average-ish:
beckett
lackey
doubront
dempster (though he used to be much more gb oriented)
andrew miller
curt schilling (leans toward the fb-side)
fb-leaning:
andrew bailey
papelbon
daisuke
aceves
GWQuote Reply
Mine doesn’t need a hat in space.
/Space Cowboy’d
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ McElroy:
might want to recheck your geiger counter, chief.
GWQuote Reply
Here’s my contribution to the cowboy hat collection.
SK, did you pencil this one in for me?
SVBQuote Reply
@ GW:
I couldn’t find a cowboy hat picture for McElroy. This was the best out there. (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
No Tracy Ringolsby avatar yet? C’mon.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ GW:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-bill-james-right-about-ground-ball-pitchers-and-injuries/
someone over at fangraphs gave it a shot. I don’t buy it, though. need to control for playing time and talent in some way.
GWQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Nah, I’ll need to read your comments for a few more years before I can predict your avatar choices. I thought you’d go with some sort of gaucho.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Ronny Cedeno —> Astros
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Good move for them, the Astros are a replacement-level team so Cedeno is probably the average player on that squad.
Cubs > Angels’ backup team
MylesQuote Reply
uncle daveQuote Reply
New Aside
MylesQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Motherfucking snow
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
BerseliusQuote Reply
Nerd humor du jour:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJlbPXZEpRE
Rice CubeQuote Reply
One of the rare occasions where I’m glad to see Kaplan carrying water for the Cubs
BerseliusQuote Reply
Scott Baker > Strain, out for “at least” one more month
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Life > goes on > same as it every was
Suburban kidQuote Reply
About to do my fake team draft and I note that Yahoo has ranked Josh Vitters at 1,139. I’m surprised he’s that high.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Vernon Wells —> Yankees (probably)
Wow.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I think Benadryl should figure out a bigger pain in the ass way to open those fucking pills. Jesus
dmick89Quote Reply
I once heard that Josh Vitters likes to shit in old people’s mouths while they are sleeping.
joshQuote Reply
I just saw the thread from yesterday, I hope it’s ok to post late.
I always thought that GB% was more important according to the individual pitcher, as opposed to just looking at GB% by itself. Or at least, I don’t think that it’s bad to be a fly ball pitcher, as long as you can generate above average K% and have a good BB%. If a pitcher struggles with control, or can’t generate K’s, maybe it’s more valuable/important for that pitcher to have a higher GB%?
EdwinQuote Reply
josh wrote:
He’s probably terrible at it too.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
Would you say that he was shitty at shitting?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
Yes, I tend to think whether or not GB pitchers are more valuable is kind of an irrelevant topic. I know Theo has said he would like ground ball pitchers (told Posnanski recently), but I would also assume Theo wants guys who can strike batters out and walk as few as possible. In the end, that’s going to determine success more than GB or FB tendencies will.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m pretty sure that Vitters will make it back up to the bigs this season and he’ll be far better than last year. You guys should lay off. He’s this year’s F7 transformation. In fact, he’s changing his name to Vitzerbrincicncs. (Too bad Harry and Ron aren’t around to pronounce that!)
@ dmick89:
I figured it out.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m just saying, he’s no better than replacement level (possibly even worse) at shitting in old people’s mouths. He had a lot of promise coming out of the draft. People were hailing him as the next Moises Alou, but so far I’ve yet to hear about any real tangible results. If he hasn’t done it by now, he probably never will. Man, prospects just always go on to break your heart.
EdwinQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
True that.
dmick89Quote Reply
What are you talking about, Vitters has a great (s)hit tool
MylesQuote Reply
They knew to listen to me. That’s why they’re so successful.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
I always figured you left the blog due to your consulting with the Chicago Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Lohse ———-> MIL
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Saw that. So now the damn Cardinals will have #17 and #20 in the draft, correct? Am I doing this right?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
No, I don’t think I am…. Does the 17th pick just go away now, and the Cards get a pick in the Comp round?
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
No. I don’t see a cowboy hat.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
If anyone knows of job openings in Indianapolis, I’d love to hear about them.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Capt Reynolds had a hat, but it blew off when he stuck his head outside of Serenity while they were cruising through space
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Jim Callis to the rescue:
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Did you just say Josh Vitters has a great ass?
AkabariQuote Reply
Also I finally registered just so I could have a cowboy hat
AkabariQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
I figured you had been registered for awhile.
dmick89Quote Reply
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I told them to start JefF7. They did and hired me.
I told them to change his legal name to JefF7. They wouldn’t, so I quit.
RynoQuote Reply
Akabari wrote:
Stop it.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Akabari:
You are Committed©
WaLiQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
That sounds like a good price for him.
How do the Cardinals get the 28th pick in the draft??
WaLiQuote Reply
i see you fuckers are all picking avatars with sweet hats now so you can look as cool as jay johnstone with his budweiser umbrella hat.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Compensation. They made a qualifying offer to Lohse so the Brewers lose 17, everyone after that moves up a space, and the cards get a pick in the compensation round.
EDIT: With MLB.com link (That hasn’t been updated yet, as the signing isn’t official)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/order.jsp
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
More importantly: Koyie Hill -> Marlins
MJKQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I work for Angie’s List. We are hiring like crazy right now.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Guess I didn’t realize there would have been a move up of 3 teams and that of all the teams that lost a free agent, they all had a worse record than the Cardinals.
WaLiQuote Reply
(dying laughing), all the Brewers people I follow on twitter are livid about this signing. With two wild cards out there now, moving from 82 to 84 wins is a nontrivial jump.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=job+opening+indianapolis&l=1
WaLiQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
MB —–> Larry King
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ MJK:
How/Why is Koyie Hill still a thing?
In a related note, I suck at photo manipulation
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
Huh. I actually know a few people that work there (I do trivia with one dude on Thursday nights). I could give it a shot. I’m more just frustrated with the job I do have more than anything else.
WaLi wrote:
I’d prefer my job queries go through altavista, thanks.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Where do you live, Pawnee?
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
I think the issue is that they are paying Lohse 3/33 (giving up a first-round pick) to replace Shaun Marcum, who signed for much cheaper and much shorter. Of course, the problem with that is that the market is a moving target (you can only sign the players available when they are available), so that comparison only works if Marcum was available at the time Lohse was signed (not to mention Marcum is a recent injury concern).
If the Brewers think they have a shot at a WC spot this year, then I don’t see a huge deal with them making this signing; however, I don’t think they have a good shot, so it’s a poor move. I think it’s a move from 77 to 79, not 82 to 84.
MylesQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
No, I live in a place called 1997
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I just checked BPro’s projected standings, and they have the Cubs and Brewers tied for last in the NLC at 78 wins. Um.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
So what you’re saying is that the Cubs should have signed Lohse? Come on, Theo
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
When I lived there, I used HotBot.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Holy crap, dogpile.com still exists
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
If you want to commute to Champaign IL… okay, I don’t actually know of any jobs, I’m just lonely.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Love the Hope Monster’s hat
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing) nice avatar
WaLiQuote Reply
So I’ve searched the last 5 days of posts and I can’t find the beginning of the cowboy hat meme… so no participation from me!
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I think two people changed avatars to cowboys at roughly the same time and it grew from there is what happened.
joshQuote Reply
but anyway, it’s called a bandwagon, not a thorough-investigation-wagon.
joshQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I think there is going to be an OV Convention where we are going to watch Brokeback Mountain. You are only invited if you change your avatar to a person wearing a cowboy hat.
At least that is what I was promised by SK.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ josh:
Hug.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Awesome avatar.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/are-ground-balls-overrated-by-sabermetrics.html#comment-148893
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Uh oh. Every blog I ever started commenting in shuts down within 2yr. It has been about one yr for me here. Read fast SK. AC is already gone…… 🙁
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
SK started reading my old Cubs blog back in (2006 I think). He didn’t even believe it when I said I was closing ACB down and starting a new blog with a few others.
dmick89Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/starlin-castro-to-bat-2nd.html
dmick89Quote Reply