The 2015 Cubs (with ZIPS projections)

ZiPS and the Cubs have a love affair this season. pwRC+ is simply wRC+ adjusted for position. I took 85% of positional average for bench players.

The first observation I’d like to make is that the Cubs are loaded for bare in the infield. Both La Stella and Alcantara rate as elite backups, and capable starters. That jives, more-or-less, with my uninformed opinion of them both. I think we’ll see a lot of subbing for Baez with La Stella if we have a strong need for a walk as opposed to a double or home run.

Alcantara is perhaps better suited to back up the outfield, but 40-man considerations sort of prevent that. I’ve made my best guess as to the 25-man fielders, but there are three outsiders that have a chance. If Olt makes the team, it will be as a COF/CIF (and that would portend either Baez or Alcantara starting the season in the minors after Bryant is called up). Junior Lake might displace Sweeney or Denorfia from an outfield slot. Lastly, I think Jonathan Herrera has a good shot to displace Alcantara from the last UTIL spot (and Mendy would start the season in AAA). Herrera is not on the 40-man, but he’s the type of guy this organization has typically found a place for at varying parts of the season.

I’m not sure I need to tell you to temper your enthusiasm, but I will. Inevitably, many of these players will outperform or underperform these projections. Even if they would all hit each of these, it’s a lock injuries will rob us of some of these players. You just can’t assume that we are ahead of the game for 7 of the 8 positions because that is a recipe for heartbreak down the road. The best we can say, is that right now, we look to be an above-average offense, if only slightly. We are also well-equipped to handle the injuries that will inevitably occur.

Hot damn, does ZIPS love that bullpen. Bullpens are the most volatile part of any part of a baseball team, and ours will be especially so. Still, having 4 viable candidates to fill out the 8th and 9th is a good feeling. I’ve ordered them in what makes the most sense to me, but literally any permutation of Rondon/Strop/Ramirez/Motte makes sense for those 4 spots. Rosscup could be the first man up or the LOOGY (if he’s not the man, it’s Joe Ortiz), and Rivero might start the season in AAA as well. If Rivero makes the pen, he’ll bump someone off the 40-man, so it’s also possible that Schlitter or Beeler make the cut.

The rotation looks a little shaky at the back end, but ZIPS loves Hendricks hardcore. I don’t share the same zest, but I think he can be an average pitcher for the back of a rotation. I have Travis Wood winning the #5 spot, but it could go one of several ways (Jacob Turner, Tsuyoshi Wada, Felix Doubront). If Wood doesn’t get it, he’s probably the swingman. One of those other options could also shunt Rivero to AAA. Really, that last spot in the bullpen is ANYONE’S game.

That brings us to Edwin Jackson. I’m not sure there’s room for him anywhere. He’ll probably get a look in Spring Training to start, or relief. However, I’m just not sure you’d want him on the team even as a reliever. He’s simply not part of the future, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was cut soon. He’s a sunk cost that isn’t likely to reclaim his lost value, and in any case the Cubs are probably too good to spend starts on him just gambling. I’d say it’s 15% he makes the staff, 20% he makes the bullpen, and 65% he’s off the team in some capacity.

ZIPS has some heavy regression in store for Arrieta. It makes sense on two levels. The first is just the extreme unlikelihood that a player gets so, so much better in a single year. The second is his success is predicated heavily on a new pitch, a slutter. Teams will have studied the pitch, and I hear it’s relatively awkward to throw. Much like curveballs kill your arm, there’s some chance that this slutter will be thrown less or at least less effectively. I’d take the under on 96 (lower is better), but I’d probably take the over on 90.

Farm Considerations

C.J. Edwards – 103 FIP-
Tsuyoshi Wada – 107 FIP-
Blake Parker – 86 FIP-

Addison Russell – .315 wOBA
Albert Almora – .289 wOBA
Kyle Schwarber – .318 wOBA (14 points higher than Montero)
Welington Castillo – .316 wOBA
Mike Olt – .299 wOBA (32.6 K%)
Junior Lake – .295 wOBA
Dan Vogelbach – .306 wOBA
Billy McKinney – .292 wOBA

Summary

I’d say the Cubs look like a good offensive team and a good pitching team. I’ve predicted 82-84 wins earlier this offseason, and the Fowler acquisition maybe pushes that up a win. We shouldn’t be expected to make the playoffs, but I expect we’ll at least compete.