Now that the Cubs have 4 start-worthy outfielders (and Theo has said that they aren't making any additional moves), it's time to find playing time for all of them. This will be a short attempt at finding an amenable situation for all 4.
We have 486 OF games to split between them plus the number of games that Schwarber starts behind the plate and the DH games. I assume that Schwarber will catch a certain pitcher all year minus a few games, and that the 5th outfielder will get around 10 starts this season. The simple math is 486 + 25 + 7 – 10 = 508 games.
I think it's possible that Heyward gets 160 starts, but I'm going to conservatively project him for 145 games. The tougher lefties might give him a problem. Schwarber has the same problem, and he might sit against half the lefties he sees (it depends on how much development you want him to get in that area, I guess). I have Schwarber down for 130 games this year. Fowler will start every game against lefties, and he's good against righties too. Soler is about average against lefties and righties, but that just means he's better against lefties relative to the rest of his compatriots. There are 233 games left for the the two of them; I'd start with 123 for Fowler and 110 for Soler.
There are only certain combinations of outfield that make sense here. First, only Fowler and Heyward can play center out of this group (Baez can theoretically play the position, as can Bryant. I assume that won't happen unless injuries occur). Schwarber and Soler will play either corner, though Schwarber prefers left and Soler prefers right. I can see the positions:
Schwarber catching, vs. lefty (5 games)
Schwarber C
Soler LF
Fowler CF
Heyward 80%/Victorino or Murton 20% RF
Schwarber catching, vs righty (20 games)
Schwarber C
Soler LF
Fowler CF
Heyward RF
Schwarber not catching, vs lefty (45 games)
Schwarber 75%/Soler 25% LF
Fowler 70%/Heyward 30% CF
Heyward 60%/Soler 30%/Victorino or Murton 10% RF
Schwarber not catching, vs right (85 games)
Schwarber 80%/Soler 20% LF
Fowler 80%/Heyward 20% CF
Heyward 75%/Soler 25% RF
Schwarber DH (7 games)
Schwarber DH
Soler LF
Fowler CF
Heyward RF
Totals:
Schwarber 133
Heyward 150
Fowler 130
Soler 95
That seems about right.
If you're worried about Soler's development given him only playing 95 games, don't be. This assumes nobody will be injured. If there's only a 10% chance that any of Schwarber, Hewyard, or Fowler missed significant time individually, that's almost a 30% chance (.9^3) that one of them does go down. Soler himself is injury-prone – perhaps the additional time off will help prevent that. Also, I'm sure that whichever outfielder isn't starting will be the first bat off the bench, so you get maybe 1/4 of a game back for each game you aren't scheduled to start. Lastly, I'm just not convinced that there isn't another trade in the works that sorts some of this out (and as we'll see, getting Baez regular time is excruciatingly difficult as well).
In summary, the 4OF system is definitely workable, and you can get about 100 starts to the 4th OF without missing too much of a beat (and you can get it even higher if you really work at it). As long as you don't have to worry about getting the 5th OF (or Baez) many starts out there, the Cubs can probably make everyone happy.
Comments
thanks myles. i was hoping to see something like this.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
although i would be kind of shocked if murton or victorino makes the roster.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Same, especially Murton. I’ve been surprised by some of the writeups of the Victorino signing (e.g. at Rotoworld) which seem to assume that he’s a lock for the roster. I think the team just carries 4 OF unless I see any signals that Maddon wants to go back to a 7-man bullpen.
berseliusQuote Reply
I intentionally gave the 5th OF 5 starts or so for this reason. It’s not at all likely (and could just as easily be Baez or Bryant) or subsumed by the 4 starters. It’s just hard to imagine a team without a 5-man outfield corps.
mylesQuote Reply
Joe might want a speedy, defense first OF on the roster. I hope not, though. As others have said, you’ve got the 4 above, plus Baez and Bryant.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
myles,
I went to figure out what the Cubs OF situation looked like post-Schwarber and was surprised to see that Norf still hasn’t caught on anywhere.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That IS surprising. I mean, I’d much rather have him than Victorino if I could choose.
mylesQuote Reply
http://www.theonion.com/article/im-trump-all-way-says-man-who-will-die-mishandling-52449
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
By my count, once Montero returned to the lineup in early August, Schwarber started three games behind the plate and one of them was after the Cubs had clinched a spot in the playoffs. He played catcher late in the game as a replacement in two other games. I don’t know if this means anything in terms of what we should expect in games played for him in 2016, but Maddon didn’t trust him behind the plate too often once he had a healthy Montero back.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the whole Schwarber as a catcher is a thing in the past after the trade deadline. I think the Cubs will want to keep that option available prior to the deadline. Maybe Jorge Soler is hitting the shit out of the ball and Schwarber is struggling a bit. In that case, Soler is probably getting the bulk of the playing time in LF and Schwarber is the trade piece the Cubs are dangling at the break. I think that’s unlikely, but as long as that’s an option, you’d want to have it available that Schwarber can catch since he’d be of more value.
I agree with Myles. I still think there’s a decent chance a trade gets done. You don’t really need four starting outfielders and I want Schwarber to play every day. I don’t want him to be part of a platoon.
I think Dexter Fowler probably plays 150+ games if he’s healthy and I think Heyward will play the same number if healthy. Fowler played 156 last season and one of the reasons he signed with the Cubs on a one-year deal was so that he could re-enter free agency after 2016. I’m sure he asked for assurances that he’d be playing every day in CF.
dmick89Quote Reply
I can see Maddon giving between two and four starts off a month to both Fowler and Heyward, so between 140 and 150 starts, yet have 155+ appearances as pitch-hitters, defensive replacements, etc.
I think Fowler gets at least a dozen more starts in the outfield than Schwarber, two dozen would not surprise me. I do wonder about how serious they are with developing his catching and whether that will affect his playing time or effectiveness. Even if the chances of him sticking much behind the plate are slim, with this depth, they don’t really need him to be out there every day. While the injury threat still hangs over Soler, I can see him getting 20 fewer total starts than Schwarber but the same number in the outfield. And Schwarber or Soler off the bench is a good problem to have in my mind.
Guys, did they really put this team together? This is nuts.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Italy. My grandfather was the only heir of a well-to-do family. He fled WWII. I like to think that he went all Sound-of-Music on Mussolini when he came knocking, but we have no idea. Those memories died with him before the Beatles. I imagine they weren’t all that pleasant to recollect.
Three fucks for cancer, also-ran fascism, and WWII.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I thought this would be an article about a revolutionary new style of baseball defense.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
Russell has enough range to cover SS & short CF so it sorta works out that way.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Jake Arrieta ——-> Opening Day Starter
In other news, the sky is blue.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Ryno, any post-Combine thoughts?
MuckerQuote Reply
I’m more interested in the 4 and 5 starters. I’m assuming it’s going to be Hammel and Hendricks, but I’d rather Hendricks go 4th. Not that it really matters, but I like him more than Hammel.
dmick89Quote Reply
When Jake Arrieta is merely great and not AMAZEBALLS this year, do we get out our pitchforks? Same thing with Lester.
umbraQuote Reply
On a full count, 2-out pitch, why even have a catcher? Is that against the rules?
umbraQuote Reply
If anyone is on base, they could just keep on running. As Ronny Cedeno once learned.
berseliusQuote Reply
What about a 3-2 count with bases loaded and 2 outs in the Bottom of the 9th of a tied ballgame?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
Players are reluctant enough to bunt against the shift, I wonder if they would there. Plus I’m not sure you could do a substitution/big position change mid-AB. Though if it’s just the C wandering to 1B or something, who knows.
berseliusQuote Reply
Mucker,
With 2 outs, a batter can advance to 1st on a strikeout when the catcher drops the ball.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
oh shit is THAT the purpose of that rule? that finally makes sense.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Chapman ———-> 30 game suspension
berseliusQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Correct
dmick89Quote Reply
Is it bad that I want Kawasaki to make the team?
I feel like he adds 2 tWAR (team chemistry)
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Denorfia ——– Yankees (minor league deal)
Cardinals signed Kolten Wong to a 5 year eatension.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cubs
CUBS
CUBS!!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
My doctor says eating my tension is what killed Grandpa. That was like a 55-year eat tension.
umbraQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I don’t know how much he’ll add, but I want to see him around for nothing more than entertainment value.
uncle daveQuote Reply
It’s Gonna Happen
umbraQuote Reply
Man, I learn something new everyday. I always thought a batter couldn’t advance on a dropped 3rd strike if there was a runner on 1st. I guess as long as runners can advance, then a batter can go to 1st.
MuckerQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
For real?
dmick89Quote Reply
starlin castro is on pace to bat .667 this year and adam warren has yet to win a single game for the cubs. smh
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
dmick89,
FYI I believe one of the balk rules is that the pitcher can’t actually deliver a pitch unless the catcher is in the catcher’s box.
There was also a situation in KBO where the manager tried to shift the 3B behind the catcher to back up wild pitches, but that’s apparently not allowed either.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That’s right. The pitcher has to throw at someone covering a base or it is a balk. Good call, RC.
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh yeah, I hate the Mets.
umbraQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
ummm…how shitty was this pitcher that the manager wanted to sacrifice a fielder on the off chance that there was a wild pitch?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I’d guess it was late in the game (9th inning probably) with a runner on 3rd base.
dmick89Quote Reply
Are we back? Site still isn’t loading on my phone, but probably a caching thing.
berseliusQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
LF Schwarber
3B Bryant
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
C Montero
CF Baez (!)
2B La Stella
DH Vogelbach
SS Kawasaki
SP Wood
berseliusQuote Reply
yes, you have been re-undiscredited.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
un-rediscredited?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Pretty massive fucking fail yesterday, gentlemen. Once again, you have managed to significantly underperform my already extremely low expectations for this blog.
I’d say no dinner for any of you motherfuckers. But clearly, not even that is enough of a motivating factor anymore.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I’m skipping both second breakfast AND elevensies today.
berseliusQuote Reply
That almost sounds like a compliment.
dmick89Quote Reply
Amusing, but wrong.
MylesQuote Reply
(dying laughing) That’s one of Alvin’s best lines.
dmick89Quote Reply
Right!
MylesQuote Reply
Wait. It’s “Correct!,” isn’t it.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Correct. Also, “you are correct.” Alvin had multiple ways of saying the same dumb thing.
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s what makes him special.
dmick89Quote Reply
I can’t argue with you today.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
To-day’s base ball squadron
CF Fowler
2B Zobrist
RF Heyward
1B Baez
DH Victorino
SS Russell
3B La Stella
C Ross
LF Juan Carlos Perez (?)
SP Johnson
Sounds like Neil Ramirez will pitch today too
berseliusQuote Reply
Lovely words to hear but still aint got nuthin on Chicago Cubs Baseball is On the AIr!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
HUGE FUCKING SMILE
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
+1 LSA Rec’d turn it green NAMBLA
berseliusQuote Reply
I love having Len on the airwaves again, but it doesn’t feel like baseball until Pat Hughes is at the mic. It sounds like Len and Coomer are doing the weekend games on 670 this week, unless I heard things wrong.
berseliusQuote Reply
Isn’t today’s game on MLB Network? I had it marked on my calendar to turn the tv on at 3 pm. I’ve been looking forward to today.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Pat doesn’t lower himself to doing more than a couple practice games (and when he does he doesn’t take it seriously).
That makes the real deal mean even more. Come on April.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
MLB.com, not MLB network.
MylesQuote Reply
ST did produce two of my favorite Santo moments (I think in the same game) – Ron yelling at some guys in front of him to sit down, and Ron declaring the PA who brought him some pizza the Player of the Game.
berseliusQuote Reply
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/schedule/broadcast/index.jsp?c_id=chc
berseliusQuote Reply
http://www.isthereacubsgametoday.com/
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Probably not (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
It could go either way
berseliusQuote Reply
This comment is nice.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
Actually, it was.
To be perfectly honest, I nearly had an anxiety attack at the thought this blog was gone and I’d have to sign up over at, like, BN, or something.
So don’t ever do that again.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Fixed for genuine gravitas.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The funny thing is that we renewed the domain instantly, but through some weird-ass third party that deals with hostgator (and dmick would know better than me), this shit happened anyway. You might remember that the same exact issue happened this time last year.
MylesQuote Reply
It happened either last year or the year before. I wasn’t as worried this time since the moment I saw it, I knew exactly what happened. Last time I thought I had lost the domain forever and I remember writing an email to the group here about how I fucked up and how shitty I felt. I can’t remember if I ever sent it. Last time the situation got resolved sooner.
I need to figure out what the hell I can do to stop this from happening again. I don’t quite understand it, but I’m also not exactly sure what I can do. I’ll probably contact Hostgator later on today.
dmick89Quote Reply
Momentarily I thought maybe Trump shut us down for saying negative shit about him. He was just getting us warmed up for his attack on free speech and all.
dmick89Quote Reply
The guide on my TV be wrong, but it says the Angels/Cubs are on MLB Network at 3.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing), Russell still nearly made that play
berseliusQuote Reply
So you’re saying Russell NEARLY got the job done. Send that bum to Iowa.
/internet commenter
MylesQuote Reply
I thought that Trout ball was headed to Colorado
berseliusQuote Reply
Some wacky offspeed stuff for this early in ST
berseliusQuote Reply
Let me know how Addy looks at the plate. Just listening today.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Looked like Weaver was throwing a bunch of changeups, his timing looked messed up.
berseliusQuote Reply
#NeverBCB
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
#MakeYellonAlvinAgain
MylesQuote Reply
(dying laughing), Grandpa Ross kicking ass and taking names
berseliusQuote Reply
Wow, Russell.
berseliusQuote Reply
Russell’s home run was a bomb.
dmick89Quote Reply
Russell leads the team in moonshots, Alcantara leads the team in hits, Ross leads the team in acrobatics, and who the fuck is Andreoli!?
Spring Training is bizarro baseball. But I’ll take it.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I watched part of the Cubs game last night after I got home. Nice to see them again, but just makes me want April to get here even more. Also, Pierce Johnson didn’t look too bad in my opinion. If he and Underwood can take some steps forward this year, the Cubs pitching could be even stronger next season.
dmick89Quote Reply
Cahill hitting 93-94 on his fastball in the first, higher than his usual numbers as a SP
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
That’s about what he was hitting in relief last year. I think he’s preparing as a reliever for the most part, so that’s not all that surprising. Wasn’t there an article that found reliever speeds get up to full speed more quickly than starters in spring training? Maybe I dreamed it. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
I was impressed with Cahill’s effectiveness out of the bullpen. I’m not sure if I expect it will continue this year based on past results, but he was a lot better than I’d ever seen him before.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not baseball, but worth a listen.
The Donald Trump presidency:
https://overcast.fm/+F6hCLQME4/42:42
ceruleanQuote Reply
new shit
http://obstructedview.net/projecting-the-2016-cubs-first-base/
berseliusQuote Reply