The Children Of Forest-First Men Update Sponsored by Mish

In News And Rumors by Obstructed View Staff60 Comments

Iowa

Iowa cranked out 22 hits and still managed to lose yesterday in a 10-11 slugfest. In a sure sign that he has given up his soul to the lord of the light Tony Campana hit a big boy HR. Rizzo was 3-7 and Adrian Cardenas had 4 hits. Honestly at this point I would like to see Cardenas up. The guy can hit for average and cannot possibly be worse than Blake DeWitt who may be a Lannister. Randy Wells was awful and has an ERA of 9 which is the best way of saying he is ready to battle Paul Maholm for the 5th spot. 

Smokies

Logan Watkins had 3 walks and a hit in 4 AB's. Tonight Trey McNutt will try to prove that what is dead may never die. 

Daytona

Rubi Silva needs a promotion as he continues to kill the FSL. His batting average is now as tall as the Northern Wall. Austin Kirk continues a good start working 7 innings and only giving up 1 run. He still lacks the strikeouts though only getting 1. 

Peoria 

House Peoria won 5-3 off the strength of Zeke DeVoss and Yao Lin Wang. DeVoss went 2-5 with a RBI triple. Wang who was a top prospect from Braavos worked 1.1 IP and has yet to give up a run this year. 

Misc

Proving that he is no true knight Javier Baez got into it with the other team after a HR in EXST. 

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  1. Aisle424

    I think somebody is going to end up getting a good deal in a Kevin Youkilis trade sometime soon or his value is going to plummet as Valentine fucks around with him and keeps giving ABs to Nick Punto.

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  2. Author
    WaLi

    @ josh:
    Bobby V.:

    He needs to learn the game and play it properly.

    If those things are allowed to exist, then a cancer will form within the team.

    It’s like a math genius coming into your geometry class and knowing that he understands math and he’s going to learn a new level of math while you’re teaching him geometry. The major leagues is a new level of baseball. This young man has great talent, he knows how to play the game, but he doesn’t know how to play the major league game.

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  3. Author
    WaLi

    @ WaLi:
    Said OmarBobby later:

    I’ll do what I can to help y’all. But, the game’s out there, and it’s play or get played. That simple.

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  4. Author
    GBTS

    So a question for some saber nerds based on the seventh inning of the Rays/Red Sox game.

    So Daniel Bard was clearly out of gas. He walked Carlos Pena on four pitches to load the bases, and then went 3-0 on Longoria. He was at like 112 pitches. He then walked him on the next pitch to force in a run on a ball that wasn’t even close.

    Is there EVER a situation where you have a guy intentionally swing and miss to get another pitch? Again, Bard was clearly gassed, and Longoria is inarguably one of the top hitters in the game. Would you take a chance on getting another pitch that you could drive at 3-1, knowing that you can still get the walk?

    In this scenario there were two outs in a scoreless game, so I think you’d probably just take the run 9 times out of 10. But what if you’re down by 2 or 3? What if there are no outs in the inning? Would this ever make sense?

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  5. Author
    josh

    @ GBTS:
    I’ve heard of batters doing that, but you would sure feel pretty stupid taking a fake swing at one pitch, then Bard throws you two strikes that you hack and miss on. I think you’re better off taking the sure bet.

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  6. Author
    GBTS

    @ josh:
    I pretty much agree with you. I only even thought of this because Longoria is on my fantasy team and I wanted him to drive some fucking runs. (dying laughing)

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  7. Author
    GBTS

    @ josh:
    I guess you could probably figure this out with run expectancy charts.

    Essentially, what’s expected to get more overall runs: (a) Evan Longoria facing a 3-1 fastball from a heavily fatigued pitcher with the bases loaded and two outs; or (b) the next guy (Luke Scott, I think) facing a fresh reliever with the bases loaded and two outs with one run already in?

    I mean, Longoria’s situation has to be at least like 1.5 runs or higher, right? It’s still highly probable he’ll draw a walk.

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  8. Author
    WaLi

    @ josh:
    Not only striking out, but also hitting into an out. If you don’t strike out, your chance of getting an out is still like 70% or so. I don’t see many times where this would be beneficial.

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  9. Author
    josh

    @ GBTS:
    I don’t know if it’s that easy though. For one, if dude literally swung and miss and an obvious ball, unless he’s a good actor, it’s going to be obvious to everyone that’s what he did, which is like asking to get plunked. It just seems like a bullshit thing to do, outside of a casual softball game.

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  10. Author
    GBTS

    @ WaLi:
    Career .327 batting average when the count reaches 3-1, career .562 wOBA.

    I will justify this, goddammit. (dying laughing)

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  11. Author
    WaLi

    @ GBTS:
    With 2 outs and bases loaded, the RE is 0.814. This would be the same for both Longoria and Price. Sure you could add some more for Longoria since pitcher is gassed (and it is 3-1) and take some away from Price for the new pitcher, but I doubt that difference is greater than the 1 run already scored.

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  12. Author
    Rice Cube

    I honestly think you take the walk and hope the next guy gets a better pitch. Especially if it’s the go-ahead run. I also think that if it’s later in the game, you shift from run expectancy to win probability added. A one run lead after 7 (or 6 and a half) is pretty important.

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  13. Author
    Mish

    KG

    Wellington Castillo, C, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)
    The Cubs are not a very good baseball team, but they’re not expected to be. This is a team in the nascent period of what will be a long rebuilding process. While Cubs fans seem preoccupied with what first baseman Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Brett Jackson are doing at Triple-A (and both are doing well), don’t forget about Castillo, especially since regular catcher Geovany Soto is one of the club’s better trade chips when it comes to building for the future. With three hits in all three of his games over the weekend—and home runs in two of them—Castillo is doing his best to make the front office more comfortable in jump-starting that rebuild.

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  14. Author
    dylanj

    i would like to think that if I ever met Ricketts I could nicely ask why the fuck he hamstrung Theo by voting for that ridiculous CBA. That thing has already changed the landscape of game in a huge way. All young talent is getting extended because the clubs still save money that way. FA will get older and less worth the investment so it will be harder for us to snag key FA when we are ready to make a run. That thing was the worst thing to every happen.

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  15. Author
    josh

    @ dylanj:
    They did it for the same reason rich guys do anything: they saw some way for that to make them more money. We’re seeing the fan side if it, but I guarantee you there was some monetary benefit to the owners themselves.

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  16. Author
    ACT

    In Spanish, the double “l” is pronounced like a “y” (as in “Castillo”), hence the variant spelling.

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  17. Author
    bubblesdachimp

    Anthony Giansanti ‏ @GianSanity Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    My man @javy23baez with the cycle today. #nobigdeal #extSTentourage #represent

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  18. Author
    mb21

    @ GBTS:
    Tie game? No. Down 1? No.

    That runner on 3rd represents the go ahead run late in a game or the tying run. There would never be a situation in which swinging on purpose at a bad pitch would be good strategy. It wouldn’t surprise me in that situation if you wanted to make the strikezone as small as possible rather than extending it as you’re asking.

    Down 2? No. The walk brings the run in and the tying run is on 3rd base.

    Down 3, 4? No. If you’re down 3 the walk forces the tying run into scoring position. Down 4 you put the tying run on base.

    Down more than 4? No (need baserunners).

    About the only time it would make any sense to swing at a pitch in that situation (an obviously bad pitch) is if your WE is already about as high as it could get. If you’re up 2 or 3 the difference in taking the walk and swinging at a bad pitch is pretty small because your WE is already near 1 that late in a game. You could probably argue from a strategic standpoint that there would be no real loss in doing what you say if up 2 or more runs in the 8th inning or later. No player will do it unless you’re protected by a grand slam so 5+ run lead. And if you do it at that point, Josh is right. The batter or the next batter is going to get drilled.

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