When the Cubs opened camp this Spring Training, one of the only real battles for a roster space figuring to take place was at the back-end of the rotation. 1 through 3 was definitely set (Lester, Arrieta, Hammel), and the 4th starter was almost certainly going to be Kyle Hendricks (though Muskat and others whispered that even he might break camp with Iowa instead of Chicago). The 5th spot, however, was wide open. Perhaps a month ago, my two top picks for that spot have both played themselves more-or-less out of the running for it. Let’s look at each of the contenders, and try to handicap this.
Jacob Turner
Turner has no shot at the 5th spot now. He’s injured and will start the season on the DL. It’s an elbow injury, too, which means that the rehab for that injury is anyone’s guess. This might turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as it might make it more likely the Cubs can sneak him down to AAA (he’s out of options). More likely, though, Turner has thrown his last pitch for the Cubs. Honestly, he’s been awful in the majors his whole career, so it’s not a total loss, but he was such a well thought-off prospect that it was nice to dream on him. Odds: 0
Tsuyoshi Wada
Wada was a nice story last year. A 33-year old rookie, Wada carried a 3.25 ERA and a 3.75 FIP over 69.1 innings last season. Nothing in his peripherals really made you think he was a regression candidate, either; he didn’t walk that many, didn’t give up a freakishly low amount of BABIP or HR%, and was just overall solid. Wada is younger than I thought, and could have a decent 3 or 4 years in the tank. However, Wada suffered an injury just like Turner did, though less severe. His groin injury may only keep him out of commission for a start or two, but starts like this are precious. He has a shot at the #5 spot, but it’s slipping. Odds: 11/1
Edwin Jackson
Jackson has actually looked…ok?… this spring. He was knocked around in his first start, but was dominant in the second. People around the Cubs have said he’s looked improved, and given him some of the nebulous, worthless platitudes thing spring. Whether that’s to try to build up trade interest or a sign of actual progress remains to be seen, but I’m beginning to think that Jackson has an increasingly better chance of staking claim to the #5 spot then he did before. He’s not the favorite, but he’s second in command. Odds: 3/1
Travis Wood
Wood has the best chance of anyone to break camp with the Cubs this April. He has a pedigree of past success (as recently as 2013), and his 2014 was bad but not as bad as Jackson’s. Wood was incredibly strand-unlucky last year – his peripherals weren’t all that much worse than in previous seasons. I think Wood’s BABIP luck finally caught up with him last year, but that merely makes him below-average and not un-rosterable. Pair that with a hiccup-free spring and Wood has the easy inside chance to lock up the #5 spot. Odds: 7/4
The Field
Felix Doubront hasn’t acquitted himself all that well this spring. It doesn’t seem like he has much of a chance to make it as the #5 starter, though of the field he has the best chance of making me look stupid. Eric Jokisch is going to use another option and sit in AAA until injuries make him necessary. If a random wild card shakes loose from another team, they might go here. Odds: 231/1
The AAA rotation figures to be pretty loaded. Wada, Jackson (if that’s where he truly ends up), Doubront, Pierce Johnson, and Eric Jokisch are a formidable staff. There are also a ton of pitchers knocking on the door, like Corey Black, C.J. Edwards, and Ivan Pineyro… and this doesn’t even count pitchers in AAA last year like Dallas Beeler and Chris Rusin!
What I’m trying to say here is get ready to say goodbye to the fringier elements of our 40-man roster. Edwin Jackson is probably off this team to make room for better AAA options (opening staff: Wada, Doubront, Rusin, Beeler, Johnson), and when the prospects need to be challenged at AAA, the Rusins and Beelers will fall off the 40-man roster and into other organizations. This is the price of having a ridiculously strong farm system. I imagine it’s a price they will gladly pay.