About a quarter of the 2011 season is in the books and the Cubs have performed about as we expected overall. The pitching, particularly the rotation, has been worse than we thought. Part of that can be explained by the injury to Randy Wells who is an above average starting pitcher. The pitchers they’ve used to fill in for Wells, and Andrew Cashner too, have been horrible. Ryan Dempster has a bloated ERA thanks to more than 20% of his fly balls allowed leaving the yard. Carlos Zambrano has been below average. The only pitcher in the rotation who has been any good is Matt Garza. (click the link below to read more)
The backend of the bullpen has performed as we expected. Sean Marshall, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol have been very good, but the rest of the bullpen has also performed as expected. When the others in the bullpen consist of guys like John Grabow, Justin Berg, Scott Maine, and Jeff Samardzija, the bullpen isn’t very good. If you can get a lead or even keep it close and got to the first three relievers mentioned, the Cubs bullpen can look especially strong. If they don’t get 6 innings from their starter, the bullpen can look awful. This probably isn’t unique to the Cubs. Most teams don’t have excellent relievers filling out the bullpen. They have one, two and possibly three who you would want to use in a tight situation and the rest are kind of blah.
The Cubs offense has actually been better than expected, though that’s primarily because of a .328 BABIP (highest in baseball). That’s going to come down some. Only a handful of teams since 2006 have had a BABIP higher than .320 and none higher than .325. The Cubs have gotten unexpected production from Darwin Barney who, if you use rWAR and include EqBRR, is tied with Marlon Byrd for 2nd on the team in rWAR behind Kosuke Fukudome. They’ve gotten a strong offensive start from Starlin Castro, as well. In April, Alfonso Soriano hit a lot of home runs though his OBP was pathetic (still pathetic). Carlos Pena has picked up the home run slack in May after hitting none in April. Much of the Cubs offensive problems so far has been their inability to drive runners in. They’re hitting .295 wOBA with men in scoring position (75 wRC+).
Not too surprisingly, the Cubs defense has sucked. They’re tied with the Phillies for worst in baseball at -30 DRS. They’re 21st in UZR and 24th in Total Zone. While the Cubs batters lead the league in BABIP, the pitchers are second worst at .313. If you adjust that for park you get what Baseball Prospectus calls Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, the Cubs are tied for next to last with the Brewers and only trail the Astros.
Although the Cubs defense isn’t very good as a whole, much of the problem has been Starlin Castro. As a team, the Cubs are -10 in Total Zone. Castro makes up 90% of that. He makes up a large percentage of each of the four available defensive metrics (UZR, rDRS, fDRS, TZ). In fact, the Cubs have been -17.4 runs worse than average on defense if we average the four metrics. Castro makes up 27.1% of that.
I know it will get me in trouble around here, but it may be time to consider moving Castro to 2nd base at some point before the start of next season. Jose Reyes is a free agent after this season. He’s hitting well again. I’m not sure what kind of contract it would take to sign him, but he’s a pretty good ballplayer. Castro’s defense may yet improve, but it’s doubtful it will improve enough. Castro makes some great plays and is a lot of fun to watch. Even on defense he’s fun to watch, but fun doesn’t necessarily mean good.
It’s also important to remember that a move to 2nd base isn’t going to make Castro less valuable. Right now Castro is earning .75 wins per 700 plate apearances for being a SS. It’s the most difficult position on the field other than catcher. 2nd base is +.25, but defense improves moving from the left of the defensive spectrum to the right. On average, a SS is about 5 runs improved on defense at 2nd or 3rd base. It’s also possible Castro could be moved to CF. His range and strong arm may be of more value to him out there, but the Cubs do have Brett Jackson who is neary ready. If Castro is a 2 WAR player at SS, he’d be a 2 WAR player at 2nd base. He’d just get there in a slightly different way. Perhaps he’ll improve yet this season, but I wouldn’t count it. Most players as bad as Castro has been to this point haven’t.
Since 1950 there have been 62 players 23 and younger who have had at least 600 plate appearances and 90% of their playing time was at shortstop (see table below). Castro’s -21 fielding runs ranks 55th. Castro has had just 701 plate appearances. Every player worse had more. Some had significantly more. Wil Cordero was worst at -57. He had over 1600 plate appearances. If we do it based on playing time, only Cordero has been worse than Castro. Cordero also played other positions. Cordero didn’t play a single inning at shortstop after the age of 23. As a shortstop exclusively, based on playing time, no one has been a worse defender than Starlin Castro since 1950.
Other players nearly as bad as Cordero and Castro also didn’t last long at SS. Sonny Jackson’s last year playing SS was at the age of 25. He did play 17 games there after that, but he was a full-time CF at that point. Jose Offerman‘s best year on defense were at the age of 21 and 22 and by the time he was 26 he was a 1st baseman and then a utility infielder. Rey Quinones did not improve as he got older and because he was a poor hitter, he was out of baseball by the time he was 27. Andujar Cedeno played only sparingly after the age of 26 and wasn’t any better defensively. Derek Jeter‘s worst years were in his mid 20s and then he did actually improve though he was still not very good on defense. He should have been moved away from SS a long time ago. Mariano Duncan’s defense didn’t improve and he was no longer a full-time SS at the age of 24. Jay Bell’s defense did improve considerably. Don Kessinger’s defense also improved, especially between the ages of 24 and 30. Tom Verzyzer’s did not.
The point I’m trying to make is that defense is very much a skill and it’s unlikely a bad fielding position player is going to become a good one at the same position. It’s actually kind of remarkable that only a few of these players improved. You’d expect the worst fielding position players to improve like you expect the best fielding ones to get worse (regression to the mean). We can all hope that Castro pulls a Kessinger or Bell or even a Derek Jeter but at some point a decision is going to have to be made based on something other than hopes and dreams. I’m not suggesting the Cubs move Castro right now. I see no reason to move him there this season, but if he shows no signs of improving, I also see no reason why he should be at shortstop next season. The Cubs have an in-house option in Darwin Barney and if they want to spend some money they could go after Jose Reyes.
While we’re talking about Castro, let’s talk about his inability to take a walk. His non-intentional walk percentage (NIBB%) is 5th worst in baseball this season. Since 2008 his 4.0% NIBB% ranks 8th worst. nly 18 players since then have an NIBB% below 5%: AJ Pierzynksi, Miguel Tejada, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Cristian Guzman, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Delmon Young, Starlin Castro, Jeff Francouer, Freddy Sanchez, Ichrio Suzuki, Robinson Cano, Vladimir Guerrero, Jose Guillen, Adam Jones, Pedro Feliz and Erick Aybar. There are a few good hitters in there, but a lot of bad ones. Of those 18, none have a lower HR% (HR per AB) than Castro. Most of the players have hit at least 3 times as many home runs. Erick Aybar is the only other player of those 18 whose HR% is below 1% (Castro’s is .61%). You have to go down to 26th worst NIBB% to find Juan Pierre who has hit fewer home runs. Next up is Jason Kendall at 49th and Ryan Theriot at 56th. 97 players since 2008 have had an NIBB% below 10% (league average is around 7 to 7.5%) and only 5 of them have hit fewer home runs per AB than Castro.
None of this is to say Castro is a bad ballplayer. He’s not. He’s clearly shown he can hit for a high average so even taking so few walks his OBP will be better than average. He’s just 21 years old and has as many hits as anybody in baseball. That’s damn impressive. He’s also shown he can hit for some power, but it’s mostly gap power right now. There’s plenty of reason to think he’ll grow into more of a home run hitter, but even he doesn’t, his ISO isn’t bad. He’s hitting more than enough doubles to make himself more valuable than a guy like Juan Pierre or Ryan Theriot at the plate. Though most of the players whose ability to take a walk is as poor as Castro’s, few of them are actually as good at hitting as Castro is in terms of batting average.
I have no idea if that bodes well for the future or not. I have come to the unfortunate realization lately that Castro is never going to the superstar we wish him to become. I was well aware entering the season that he probably wouldn’t, but I still had hope that he would despite the skills that Castro lacks. Those skills he’s deficient in have become more clear to me. He is what he is. He’s going to hit for a high average, which will keep his OBP above average. He won’t walk much at all. He probably won’t hit for much power, but probably more than he has shown so far. He’s more than likely going to be moved away from shortstop. He’ll still be a very valuable player to this team, but not the superstar I think 99% of Cubs fans are expecting.
Here’s something else that will get me in trouble here: the Cubs need to consider eating the rest of Alfonso Soriano‘s contract at some point in the near future. I know it won’t happen, but as bloggers we talk about shit all the time that isn’t going to happen. Especially when we’re Cubs bloggers. Actually, half the shit we talk about won’t happen because the Cubs are a poorly run organization. It’s not that I actually think I could do better. I’m certain I could not, but I’m equally certain the organization could be run better than it has been or currently is.
Zapp talked about the possibility of disability insurance with regards to Soriano and we know that he isn’t going to qualify. At least not yet. When Soriano actually has to get in the wheel chair to get around the bases, which he’s not far from having to do, they could collect some insurance. That’s not something the Cubs can count on. It’s possible Soriano hobbles painfully around the bases for the next 3+ seasons.
Though it wasn’t going to happen, Soriano and Tyler Colvin should have been platooning this season from the start. Soriano can still hit lefties quite well, but is average vs righties. Average is OK if you can field decent, but Soriano can’t. He can out-hit his defense vs lefties, but not vs righties.
What happens when Brett Jackson gets called up? Soriano then isn’t even one of the three best outfielders. I highly doubt he is right now. Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd are each better than Soriano. Tyler Colvin can’t be much worse. If you consider Colvin’s ability to play CF, it’s fairly easy to believe that he’d be the better overall player once you factor in defense. The projections averaged a .320ish wOBA for Brett Jackson. If each player got 500 plate appearances (Jackson in CF, Soriano in LF), Soriano would be worth 1.3 WAR while Jackson would be worth 1.1. Then add in the defense and Soriano is no better than .5 to .6 WAR.
A .300 wOBA hitter in CF who is worth 7 runs above average on defense and baserunning combined is as valuable as Alfonso Soriano. That might be Tony Campana. CAIRO projected a .285 wOBA for Campana entering the season. Let’s bump that to .290 considering how good he was in AAA to begin the year. He’s known as a great baserunner and is supposedly pretty good on defense. How good would he have to be to be as good as Soriano? 13 runs above average per full season. So if Campana was, say, 3 runs better than the average baserunner and 10 runs better than the average fielder he is every bit as good as Alfonso Soriano.
I doubt Campana is that good, but the point I’m making is that the difference between the two is pretty damn small at this point. Ask yourself a question, which teams do you think would pick Soriano up if he was available for the league minimum? It’s hard for me to believe that any National League team would consider it.
I don’t know what the Cubs should do with Soriano, but I do know that I don’t want Soriano blocking any player from getting playing time. If he’s the third best outfielder, fine, but if you’re playing him or keeping him around because of the money then it will become frustrating. What stands out to me is that I’m even looking into the possibility of Tony Campana being as good or better than Alfonso Soriano. You know your team isn’t very good when that’s even worth looking into.
Comments
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Soriano —-> 1B if they can’t DFA him or sign Pujols/Fielder. They have to at least try to to get him out of the outfield and try to squeeze as much value out of his bat as possible until they figure out what the fuck they’re doing.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Moving him to 1st base would be a great idea. It would make it easier on his body, which is clearly damaged at this point. It may even improve his ability to hit a little bit. The problem is that he’s still not a very good overall hitter so even if you move him there you run into similar problems.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Moving him to 1st base would be a great idea. It would make it easier on his body, which is clearly damaged at this point. It may even improve his ability to hit a little bit. The problem is that he’s still not a very good overall hitter so even if you move him there you run into similar problems.[/quote]
That’s true, but if they’re not willing to eat the contract and they don’t want to bench him, then they have to hide him at 1B. I don’t know what else they can really do. I highly doubt they can sign Pujols or even Fielder anyway, and whatever bargain-basement 1B they get won’t be all that much better. And since the prospects coming up all seem to be outfielders, it just makes the most sense to me to toss Soriano at 1B and see what happens (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess the main obstacle to Soriano —> 1B besides the point you mentioned about his subpar bat is the fact that people equate his shit defense in LF with equally shitty defense at 1B. I’d just like to see them at least try it once or twice. Seriously, see what happens.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m fine with moving Soriano to 1st base. I’d be fine if the Cubs platooned he and Pena this season with someone else taking over in LF.
mb21Quote Reply
It would be nice if they could move Byrd over to LF when Brett Jackson is ready to take over in CF, which isn’t too far away.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It would be nice if they could move Byrd over to LF when Brett Jackson is ready to take over in CF, which isn’t too far away.[/quote]Then we could platoon Byrd and Colvin in LF, Jackson and Johnson in CF, and Pena and Soriano at 1B with two maroons in RF (Fukudome and Campana) and 2B (Barney and Baker).
I realize the roster won’t have 7 outfielders but whatever.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It would be nice if they could move Byrd over to LF when Brett Jackson is ready to take over in CF, which isn’t too far away.[/quote]
Unfortunately I don’t think Byrd comes back for another month or so, if even that. *sad face*
I think the Cubs do the stupid and put BJax in LF or stick him on the bench in favor of Soriano because Soriano makes more $. The only way he sticks in CF is if they call him up in the next couple weeks and he plays out of his mind there while Byrd is recovering. Then they’d have to figure out whether to trade Byrd or Fukudome once Byrd comes back. Maybe I’m pessimistic but I don’t think the Cubs let BJax play as their regular CF, especially if they think a guy like Matt Szczur is their CF of the future.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Buttsex only in box seats?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/5/22/2183607/baseball-players-and-the-traffic-signs-that-describe-them
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
This is great, MB. It leads into my next post, “Cubs Tickets Are Expensive.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m working on the next article of this series: Women Be Shoppin’.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]This is great, MB. It leads into my next post, “Cubs Tickets Are Expensive.”[/quote]
I suggest a Captain Obvious picture in your next post.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Joakim Noah —————-> +10 faget points.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
I don’t know if someone (me?) already posted this, but all BP content that’s over a year old is now free.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Joakim Noah —————-> +10 faget points.[/quote]
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I don’t know if someone (me?) already posted this, but all BP content that’s over a year old is now free.[/quote]
I used to fuck guys like you in prison.
JimmyQuote Reply
[quote name=Jimmy]I used to fuck guys like you in prison.[/quote]
Better than getting fucked, I’d wager.
MishQuote Reply
http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/05/23/your-suspicions-are-correct-the-cubs-do-get-screwed-by-interleague-play/
MishQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/5/23/2185169/mlb-power-rankings-chicago-white-sox-new-york-yankees-news
MishQuote Reply
Hilariously awful stat: Adam Dunn is 0-for-lefties this season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Better than getting fucked, I’d wager.[/quote]
http://tinyurl.com/3rv8xd4
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]http://tinyurl.com/3rv8xd4[/quote](dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Moving him to 1st base would be a great idea. It would make it easier on his body, which is clearly damaged at this point. It may even improve his ability to hit a little bit. The problem is that he’s still not a very good overall hitter so even if you move him there you run into similar problems.[/quote]
Actually, MB, I think that would probably only exacerbate the problem at hand. Soriano’s updated ZiPS projection for this season has him finishing with a .306 OBP. In my opinion, there isn’t any way in the world to chalk this sorta thing up as a positive of any sort. It’s the same story as Tyler Colvin– moving either of them to first base exacerbates the biggest weakness in their games.
I doubt I’m alone in thinking a .306 OBP or anywhere thereabouts is an acceptable arrangement. Assuming for a moment– and it’s a big assumption if you ask me– that he can actually capably play the position, then maybe platooning him with Pena wouldn’t be the worst idea, but let’s be real here– what do we think the chances of Soriano actually being used at first base are? At least in the near term– like, for as long as Carlos Pena is around– I think the chances we see that are slim to none. And that’s for good reason if you ask me. Looks like most people in this thread would probably disagree with me, but that’s just my take.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hilariously awful stat: Adam Dunn is 0-for-lefties this season.[/quote]
He has definitely played like a free agent who signed with the Cubs.
Fortunately the Cubs will be able to instead sign Prince Fielder this offseason and have him hit .084 through the ASB of 2012.
Chris DickersonQuote Reply
As for your thoughts on Starlin, I would only caution with this– especially if you choose to look at defensive metrics, we can’t overlook the relatively tiny sample we’re looking at. Starlin is just now approaching about 1500 innings at SS in his career. That’s probably something like half as large as sample as you’d like before reaching any solid conclusions based on defensive metrics.
Honestly, I just think it’s still way too early to write off Castro as a shortstop. Even if it ends up that he doesn’t belong there, moving him off the position based on an algorithm saying based on 1500 innings that he hasn’t been very good on defense.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14000
MishQuote Reply
@smokiesbaseball said there haven’t been any updates on Brett Jackson. Baseball America hasn’t put up the transactions for last week yet either. We’ll see soon if they put him on another 7-day DL or he’s ready to play.
From the reports I’ve seen about Marlon Byrd, idk how he could be back in 15 days. But I doubt BJax would take his place after having some time off with the injury.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]@smokiesbaseball said there haven’t been any updates on Brett Jackson. Baseball America hasn’t put up the transactions for last week yet either. We’ll see soon if they put him on another 7-day DL or he’s ready to play.
From the reports I’ve seen about Marlon Byrd, idk how he could be back in 15 days. But I doubt BJax would take his place after having some time off with the injury.[/quote]
Depending on how bad Baker’s groin injury is, I could see them calling up a jack-of-all-trades like Bobby Scales that would provide a little depth and versatility that would allow them to get through without having to DL Baker for a full 15 games. I’d think he could as easily play an outfield spot as DeWitt or Baker can.
But if Baker goes on the DL, you have to think a real outfielder will come up (maybe Lou Montanez? He’s hitting .369/.429/.573) and then pick ’em between Scales and Ojeda.
Aisle424Quote Reply
This assumes that one of the 13 pitchers also gets sent back, but that is far from a safe assumption.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]
I like the part where they killed their friend and then just stood there.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I like the part where they killed their friend and then just stood there.[/quote]
I like the part where they were being juvenile.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-marlon-byrd/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-marlon-byrd/[/quote]
That was a really long article to get around to “I always swing at the first pitch.”
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-marlon-byrd/[/quote]
He actually sounds like he could make a decent hitting instructor one day. At least on the mechanics of swinging. The discipline of patience might be someone else’s department.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]He actually sounds like he could make a decent hitting instructor one day. At least on the mechanics of swinging. The discipline of patience might be someone else’s department.[/quote]
If he stays in the Cubs org he’d be just fine.
MishQuote Reply
The Cubs are all about weird patterns in their record this year.
http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/cubs-are-pretty-consistent.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]The Cubs are all about weird patterns in their record this year.
http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/cubs/cubs-are-pretty-consistent.html[/quote]
Fo, fo, fo…Moses Malone running this numbers racket?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I didn’t know you went to Baylor, RC.
http://www.truecrimereport.com/2011/05/robert_cole_baylor_student_bus.php
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Bruce Miles twitter says BJax working out in “controlled environment” in AZ. Will be back in AA later this week.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]Bruce Miles twitter says BJax working out in “controlled environment” in AZ. Will be back in AA later this week.[/quote]
?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
So…
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I do too. This is what I said.
After two seasons you have a damn good idea just how good a fielder he is. Hopefully he shows improvement and a few players who were really bad defensively did just that, but most didn’t. With Jose Reyes available next season, if Castro doesn’t show improvement I would sign Reyes. If they can’t get him I’d probably stick with Castro for another half season or so and see what happens.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t know if he can play 1st or not, but I don’t really think it matters. It’s about like moving Koyie HIll to 1st base. You expect his offense to improve based on other catchers who moved to a difference position, but he’s still bad. Soriano isn’t as bad as Hill obviously, but there’s nothing you can do with Soriano to hide how useless he’s become. The only way to do that is to get rid of him, which also won’t happen.
mb21Quote Reply
I love how this post on how the Cubs aren’t very good concludes by putting a damper on excitement over their most exciting player. I’m not even kidding. That’s what this team does to us. Any positivity we might try to muster on our own just gets cut off at the knees by reality.
AndCountingQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I love how this post on how the Cubs aren’t very good concludes by putting a damper on excitement over their most exciting player. I’m not even kidding. That’s what this team does to us. Any positivity we might try to muster on our own just gets cut off at the knees by reality.[/quote]
Hah I thought about posting something similar as my status when I saw this post earlier. “Cubs are so bad that now I’m down on Castro because…”
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I love how this post on how the Cubs aren’t very good concludes by putting a damper on excitement over their most exciting player. I’m not even kidding. That’s what this team does to us. Any positivity we might try to muster on our own just gets cut off at the knees by reality.[/quote]MB = Worse than Twitter
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Note to GW and b: If you see this guy around Austin, do NOT try to tackle him.
He will either throw you to the ground or spin away.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know if he can play 1st or not, but I don’t really think it matters. It’s about like moving Koyie HIll to 1st base. You expect his offense to improve based on other catchers who moved to a difference position, but he’s still bad. Soriano isn’t as bad as Hill obviously, but there’s nothing you can do with Soriano to hide how useless he’s become. The only way to do that is to get rid of him, which also won’t happen.[/quote]
I think that is what will happen, eventually at least. However, if you ask me it might be sooner that some people realize. If Soriano has a third consecutive year with a downright lousy OBP, then it might be safe to stick a fork in him. I mean, to make up for his deficiency in this part of his game, he would have to hit for just an absurd amount of power, especially since it’s beginning to look like a miracle is what it would take for Soriano to ever sniff a ..290ish batting average.
I just don’t think the Cubs will find anyone, not even the LA Angels, who would consider taking Soriano off their hands. Eventually this organization is just gonna have to answer the question whether they can allow themselves to stay committed to a player who makes outs as frequently as Soriano does. We’ve pretty much arrived at the point where he is a sunk cost. At some point, the Cubs are just gonna have to bite the bullett and handle a sunk cost the way they’re meant to be.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]This is great, MB. It leads into my next post, “Cubs Tickets Are Expensive.”[/quote]Nice. That will work well my next planned article, “Cubs Attendance Is Down.”
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Nice. That will work well my next planned article, “Cubs Attendance Is Down.”[/quote]I’ll post a response to that: “Cubs ushers are old.”
AndCountingQuote Reply
Jack, I actually agree that it may happen sooner than people realize, but I’m thinking after next season. Even if he hit for Bondsian power, that OBP and defense is so awful that it’s hard to believe he would have much of any value. If you look at what he’s done since 2009, it’s been mostly awful with a couple good months. I think we can stick a fork in him right now. He looks like he needs a walker to get around the bases without any pain. It wouldn’t bother me one bit if the Cubs released him today. They wouldn’t be any worse. They might be better.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I’ll post a response to that: “Cubs ushers are old.”[/quote]That works for my “Wrigley is falling apart” article.
mb21Quote Reply
Re: Castro and a potential position switch– I think we’d agree on this much: At this point, there just isn’t enough to be gained by moving him off the position to make it worth eliminating the possibility of him growing into the position. Bottom line– moving Castro off SS is not going to make this team a playoff contender. With that understanding, does it really make sense to willingly suppress a 21-year old’s considerable ceiling?
If Castro manages to cut back on the errors– a big if, I’ll concede– then he legitimately has a chance to be one of the very best players in baseball. Why miss out on the opportunity to see if he can pull that off– so the club can marginally upgrade it’s crummy defense in a season when the playoffs are already slipping away?
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I love how this post on how the Cubs aren’t very good concludes by putting a damper on excitement over their most exciting player. I’m not even kidding. That’s what this team does to us. Any positivity we might try to muster on our own just gets cut off at the knees by reality.[/quote](dying laughing) Castro lacks two very important skills that have really stood out this year. Maybe they stood out last year and I just ignored them. That’s probably what happened. Like I said though, I still think he’s a really good ballplayer even with all the problems. The odds of him being a superstar were always slim, but I could still see a couple seasons where he’s an all-star.
mb21Quote Reply
The only reason to do it now is if the Cubs think his defense is getting in the way of his offense. As long as the Cubs don’t think his defense is negatively affecting his offense then there’s no reason to move him right now.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) Castro lacks two very important skills that have really stood out this year. Maybe they stood out last year and I just ignored them. That’s probably what happened. Like I said though, I still think he’s a really good ballplayer even with all the problems. The odds of him being a superstar were always slim, but I could still see a couple seasons where he’s an all-star.[/quote]I agree. I do think his walk rate is probably never going to be very high because he just doesn’t swing and miss enough. (dying laughing)
Not to worry, though. Bobby Valentine said he has the potential to be better than Ernie Banks. It’s gonna happen.
AndCountingQuote Reply
21 and under SS (80% playing time at SS), minimum of 500 PA.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UTCo1
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]21 and under SS (80% playing time at SS), minimum of 500 PA.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UTCo1%5B/quote%5DNOt a lot you can learn from that since there are so few players, but I figured I’d look at it and post for you guys since Castro does have a small sample so far.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I agree. I do think his walk rate is probably never going to be very high because he just doesn’t swing and miss enough. (dying laughing)
Not to worry, though. Bobby Valentine said he has the potential to be better than Ernie Banks. It’s gonna happen.[/quote]Valentine also talked about how awesome Barney is. I’ll be the first to admit that I really like Darwin Barney. He’s impressed me, but future great player he ain’t.
mb21Quote Reply
Robin Yount was horrible at the age of 19, but pretty damn good after that.
mb21Quote Reply
The Pope is still pretty Catholic.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Yeah, the numbers are interesting, but I’d just be really cautious to leap to any conclusions based on those numbers. Even if you take them at face value I’m not sure it would mean a great deal, but especially if you’re not inclined to put too much faith in these sorts of defensive metrics, I just wouldn’t let any of this form my opinion of this player’s ability to remain at his position.
Jack NugentQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Robin Yount was horrible at the age of 19, but pretty damn good after that.[/quote]
I was also just about to add– there were some pretty damn good players on that list. Who’s to say Castro can’t be better than some of those guys?
Jack NugentQuote Reply
http://twitter.com/#!/IsThereCubsGame
If this is anyone but Steve Allen, you’re stealing our bit!
Aisle424Quote Reply
Edinson Volquez is a bitch, revisited:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/23/the-reds-send-edinson-volquez-down-to-aaa/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Note to GW and b: If you see this guy around Austin, do NOT try to tackle him.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XlIZQgTtcs
He will either throw you to the ground or spin away.[/quote]
Don’t tell me what to do.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Jack Nugent]Yeah, the numbers are interesting, but I’d just be really cautious to leap to any conclusions based on those numbers. Even if you take them at face value I’m not sure it would mean a great deal, but especially if you’re not inclined to put too much faith in these sorts of defensive metrics, I just wouldn’t let any of this form my opinion of this player’s ability to remain at his position.[/quote]I don’t believe I trust defensive metrics any more than you, but I think for the group they do a pretty good job. I also think when we can factor in what we’ve seen with our eyes (fans scouting report) and official scouting reports that we can safely say that Castro isn’t a good defender and that we shouldn’t expect him to become one. Could happen, but there’s a reason scouts have said he’ll move to 2nd or 3rd base and it’s not just his size. I actually looked into size awhile back and he’s not that big for a SS these days.
As for what will really happen, I don’t have any idea. These numbers tell us what similarly bad defensive players were able to do. Some of them stuck at SS. Most of them didn’t so obviously there’s a chance Castro sticks around SS.
I still think if a good SS comes along that the Cubs can pick up (whether this offseason via trade or free agency or sometime next year) that they should go ahead do it UNLESS Castro has shown improvement. I guess that’s really the point of what I’m saying here. They shouldn’t move him now. He could improve so there’s no reason to, but it’s probably not that likely. As a result, the Cubs shouldn’t refuse to look at available shortstops as a way to improve the team in the future.
The lack of discipline is another issue altogether and it’s actually more concerning to me than the defense.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]21 and under SS (80% playing time at SS), minimum of 500 PA.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UTCo1%5B/quote%5D
Note to Ari Kaplan: approximately 5% of these go on to be serial bombers.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]http://twitter.com/#!/IsThereCubsGame
If this is anyone but Steve Allen, you’re stealing our bit![/quote]There 195 people following that account. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Isn’t the obvious move for Castro 3B? His arm would be wasted at second.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=d59nT
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]Isn’t the obvious move for Castro 3B? His arm would be wasted at second.[/quote]I was thinking about that, but what are the odds a team moves a guy with his power to 3rd? I’m thinking 2nd base or CF. I’d probably prefer CF because of his arm strength.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I was thinking about that, but what are the odds a team moves a guy with his power to 3rd? I’m thinking 2nd base or CF. I’d probably prefer CF because of his arm strength.[/quote]
Maybe this is why they’ve been trying to make Brett Jackson into a corner outfielder. Could the Cubs have this much foresight?
I’m guessing… no.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Maybe this is why they’ve been trying to make Brett Jackson into a corner outfielder. Could the Cubs have this much foresight?
I’m guessing… no.[/quote]No. That’s another example of why move him until you have to? There’s no reason to move Castro now and there’s no reason to move Jackson yet. CF makes sense for Castro. More sense than 2nd base in my opinion.
mb21Quote Reply
Anyone see Neyer’s tweet on how Al Yellon has solved all the Dodgers problems? I can’t tell if he’s being sarcastic or just stupid.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
Did the Chicago Ambulance Squad lose yet today?
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Anyone see Neyer’s tweet on how Al Yellon has solved all the Dodgers problems? I can’t tell if he’s being sarcastic or just stupid.[/quote]
http://twitter.com/#!/robneyer/status/72781009128652800
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think it’s just him promoting Al’s attempt at satire.
Nice comment though:
Aisle424Quote Reply
It’s hard to mock any other team’s ownership when we have the 3 Stooges and a Stoogette at the helm.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It’s hard to mock any other team’s ownership when we have the 3 Stooges and a Stoogette at the helm.[/quote]And a drunken Gym Teacher On a Booze Cruise as a GM, and your manager is part mongoose, part Feringi.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Who is the Stoogette?
mb21Quote Reply
The SORIAN-OBP-METER will not be improving today
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Who is the Stoogette?[/quote]Laura Ricketts. Although she appears to be the only member of the Ricketts children who doesn’t still use crayons and fat pencils in all their written communication.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The SORIAN-OBP-METER will not be improving[/quote]
Fixed.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Laura Ricketts. Although she appears to be the only member of the Ricketts children who doesn’t still use crayons and fat pencils in all their written communication.[/quote]
They are paralyzed when they don’t have the dashed-line in their lined paper so they know how small to make their lower case letters.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They are paralyzed when they don’t have the dashed-line in their lined paper so they know how small to make their lower case letters.[/quote]Although I think Todd has finally mastered cursive “r”
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Although I think Todd has finally mastered cursive “r”[/quote]
(dying laughing), fuck cursive in the ear. I wish I could have all the time back that was wasted on that in my youth.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), fuck cursive in the ear. I wish I could have all the time back that was wasted on that in my youth.[/quote]No. Shit. That goes doubly because I’m grading handwritten essay exams right now.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]They are paralyzed when they don’t have the dashed-line in their lined paper so they know how small to make their lower case letters.[/quote]Do they use wide ruled paper?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), fuck cursive in the ear. I wish I could have all the time back that was wasted on that in my youth.[/quote]Agreed. I haven’t written in cursive since I was a child. As a result, my signature looks something like this
D……?
The D is quite clear. The rest doesn’t make the least bit of sense to anyone.
mb21Quote Reply
Tom is working on this right now:
mb21Quote Reply
That’s far more legible than the crap I write so I shouldn’t make fun of it. I’m the only person who can read my writing.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Tom is working on this right now:
201320142015″Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Holy shit. Has anybody looked at the June schedule yet? The Cubs have 3 easy series coming up between the Mets, Pirates and then 2 vs the Astros to end the month. They open June with the final game of the Astros series and then hit the road for 3 in St. Louis, 3 in cincy and 4 in Philly. They come home for 4 with the Brewers and 3 with the Yankees. They go back on the road for 3 each at White Sox and Royals and then 1 at home vs Rockies and 3 at home vs Giants. The Cubs schedule in June is vs a .533 winning percentage team.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]A.K.A. “Wrigley
201320142015″[/quote]My source confirms that the piece of paper above is what Ricketts gave to the state when he applied for the loan.mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Holy shit. Has anybody looked at the June schedule yet? The Cubs have 3 easy series coming up between the Mets, Pirates and then 2 vs the Astros to end the month. They open June with the final game of the Astros series and then hit the road for 3 in St. Louis, 3 in cincy and 4 in Philly. They come home for 4 with the Brewers and 3 with the Yankees. They go back on the road for 3 each at White Sox and Royals and then 1 at home vs Rockies and 3 at home vs Giants. The Cubs schedule in June is vs a .533 winning percentage team.[/quote](dying laughing), I think the Roller Coaster Ride to .500 is fast becoming a Roller Coaster Ride to 100 Losses.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]My source confirms that the piece of paper above is what Ricketts gave to the state when he applied for the loan.[/quote]Well, since you have a source, it must be true.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Holy shit. Has anybody looked at the June schedule yet? The Cubs have 3 easy series coming up between the Mets, Pirates and then 2 vs the Astros to end the month. They open June with the final game of the Astros series and then hit the road for 3 in St. Louis, 3 in cincy and 4 in Philly. They come home for 4 with the Brewers and 3 with the Yankees. They go back on the road for 3 each at White Sox and Royals and then 1 at home vs Rockies and 3 at home vs Giants. The Cubs schedule in June is vs a .533 winning percentage team.[/quote]
I don’t think you can call anything “easy” when it comes to the Cubs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing), I think the Roller Coaster Ride to .500 is fast becoming a Roller Coaster Ride to 100 Losses.[/quote]Yeah, that’s a really tough part of the schedule. It would be even tougher if we looked at projections instead. I’d be surprised if this team avoids 90 losses. When you consider midseason trades (Fukudome most likely, maybe Dempster and/or Zambrano), 90 losses is almost a given.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder](dying laughing), I think the Roller Coaster Ride to .500 is fast becoming a Roller Coaster Ride to 100 Losses.[/quote]
As I showed earlier today, it is more accurately the Roller Coaster ride to .444.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]http://twitter.com/#!/robneyer/status/72781009128652800[/quote]
I hate my stupid brain and it’s incapacity to process large numbers. I fully understand that this is stupid on many levels, but for a minute I was like “Would I pay $10 for a 1/1 million chance at owning the Dodgers” and then I actually processed for a second and felt stupid.
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, that’s a really tough part of the schedule. It would be even tougher if we looked at projections instead. I’d be surprised if this team avoids 90 losses. When you consider midseason trades (Fukudome most likely, maybe Dempster and/or Zambrano), 90 losses is almost a given.[/quote]
Maybe too early to speculate, but who would want a high-OBP low-power RF? I guess they can’t really trade Byrd now even if they wanted to since he’s broken *sad face*
I’m sad because he’s hurt, not because he can’t be traded. Edited to make me look like less of an asshole.
/shame’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]As I showed earlier today, it is more accurately the Roller Coaster ride to .444.[/quote]
[quote name=mb21]I’d be surprised if this team avoids 90 losses.[/quote]
.444 over a full season is 72-90…
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle].444 over a full season is 72-90…[/quote]
Aisle424 is a genius.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
We have a right fielder who gets on base but can’t hit for power and a left fielder who can’t get on base but hits for power. We really are fielding 2 OFs on a daily basis. Less, if you consider Sori’s defense.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]We have a right fielder who gets on base but can’t hit for power and a left fielder who can’t get on base but hits for power. We really are fielding 2 OFs on a daily basis. Less, if you consider Sori’s defense.[/quote]And yet Quade has yet to solve the mystery of how to get Tyler Colvin MLB AB.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Lou Montanez —–> not in Iowa Cubs lineup
Presumably standing in line for the shuttle to Chicago.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Lou Montanez —–> not in Iowa Cubs lineup
Presumably standing in line for the shuttle to Chicago.[/quote]Not a bad move. He’s been hitting well, and most of the MLB team is not much better than he is right now. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]We have a right fielder who gets on base but can’t hit for power and a left fielder who can’t get on base but hits for power. We really are fielding 2 OFs on a daily basis. Less, if you consider Sori’s defense.[/quote]
Did you just refer to Reed Johnson as an actual OF?
XoomwaffleQuote Reply
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Did you just refer to Reed Johnson as an actual OF?[/quote]
Reed is a gamer.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Lou Montanez —–> not in Iowa Cubs lineup
Presumably standing in line for the shuttle to Chicago.[/quote]I remember back when he was a top prospect. He was going to change the Cubs fortunes along with Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, and Kerry Wood. That worked out well.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Lou Montanez —–> not in Iowa Cubs lineup
Presumably standing in line for the shuttle to Chicago.[/quote]That doesn’t make sense. When a position player gets injured, you call up a pitcher. Everybody knows this.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I remember back when he was a top prospect. He was going to change the Cubs fortunes along with Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, and Kerry Wood. That worked out well.[/quote]It’s A Way of Life.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]That doesn’t make sense. When a position player gets injured, you see what happens. Everybody knows this.[/quote]
Fixed for Cubdumb
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
If you don’t listen to Brown Bird, you should. And if you don’t like it, you can expect a punch from me.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
We were recently talking about tornado fatalities here. DJ insinuated the South was unprepared for the tornadoes that killed several hundred in Alabama. GW and I argued it was all about population size and provided examples of tornadoes in Kansas that killed a larger percentage of the population than the ones Alabama. The one in Joplin Missouri killed over 100. When tornadoes strike large population centers, many people are going to die. If they strike a town with 18 people not many will.
mb21Quote Reply
not to re-open the “castro is a bad defender” can of worms but…I’m gonna re-open it. My lying eyes tell me that he’s good at some parts of playing defense (range, getting to balls off the bat) and bad at others (making accurate throws and catching the ball on 2nd). it strikes me that the first part is based on physical attributes (reaction time, eye, speed on the ground) almost entirely and is less teachable. but the second part seems relatively teachable and might be places where he could improve.
but I don’t know if the metrics speak to any of this, and it could all be bullshit.
UrkQuote Reply
Random Muskat note:
I also agree with Urk above. I think Castro’s issue is that he needs to learn to calm down a bit and realize that he won’t make every single play. With reps and proper teaching (maybe a bit much to ask of the Cubs) he will learn when to just pocket the ball and when he can take a second to set before throwing more accurately.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I tend to think throwing accuracy is as much a skill as range. Sammy Sosa had a cannon early in his career, but the ball could go anywhere from a strike at home plate to 50 feet over the catcher’s head. That never improved. That’s not to say it won’t for Castro or doesn’t for some, but I think it’s a skill.
We’ll see how Castro progresses because he won’t be and shouldn’t be moved anytime soon.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Agreed. I haven’t written in cursive since I was a child. As a result, my signature looks something like this
D……?
The D is quite clear. The rest doesn’t make the least bit of sense to anyone.[/quote]
Same here. A big loopy J then a bunch of scribbled shit (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Lou Montanez —–> not in Iowa Cubs lineup
Presumably standing in line for the shuttle to Chicago.[/quote]
I’m excited to see another Young Player get some playing time with the big league club (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Same here. A big loopy J then a bunch of scribbled shit (dying laughing)[/quote]About 7 or 8 years ago I stopped even trying. I wouldn’t even say that mine is scribbled shit. It’s a D followed by a line and then some weird-ass shit at the end of the last name. I don’t bother to dot the i’s because that would just be confusing. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m excited to see another Young Player get some playing time with the big league club (dying laughing)[/quote]Definitely. When Brad Snyder gets called up it’s going to be even more fun.
In all honesty though, I am excited to see Montanez play for the Cubs. I remember Ryno and I early on when we first started talking about the Cubs always talked about him as part of the future. He got off to a really good start after being the number 2 or 3 pick in the draft and then went to shit fast. That guy had a ton of talent when he was young.
mb21Quote Reply
I think he had a few good years and then may have gotten injured. I can’t remember for sure, but at some point he just wasn’t the same player he had been for the previous few years.
mb21Quote Reply
He had a great first season and then struggled for 3 years before being really good again at the age of 23. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=montan001lui
mb21Quote Reply
Adrian Gonzalez was number 1 overall pick in 2000 (Montanez number 3). That draft’s first 14 picks other than Gonzalez sucked. Utley was 15th. Then it sucked until Wainwright at 29. Not a good first round for the MLB Draft: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2000&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Adrian Gonzalez was number 1 overall pick in 2000 (Montanez number 3). That draft’s first 14 picks other than Gonzalez sucked. Utley was 15th. Then it sucked until Wainwright at 29. Not a good first round for the MLB Draft: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2000&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round%5B/quote%5D
Yes, but how did the 16th round picks do???
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Indians are good at baseball.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Yes, but how did the 16th round picks do???[/quote]They were awesome of course. There’s no difference between the 16th round and 1st round in the MLB Draft. All luck.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]They were awesome of course. There’s no difference between the 16th round and 1st round in the MLB Draft. All luck.[/quote]
That’s the Beauty of Short Hops, mb. I’m going to withdraw all my money from the bank and buy lottery tickets because hey, you never know
BerseliusQuote Reply
I looked anyway. James Shields was the only one in the 16th round to make the big leagues. 12 WAR for the 16th round picks compared to 90+ WAR for the 1st round.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I looked anyway. James Shields was the only one in the 16th round to make the big leagues. 12 WAR for the 16th round picks compared to 90+ WAR for the 1st round.[/quote]
This would almost seem to suggest that first round picks are generally better than 16th round picks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]That’s the Beauty of Short Hops, mb. I’m going to withdraw all my money from the bank and buy lottery tickets because hey, you never know[/quote]You should do like I do. Start spending your lottery winnings before the lottery. Some places get pissed at all the bad checks, but it’s not like I don’t intend to pay them back as soon as I get the money.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You should do like I do. Start spending your lottery winnings before the lottery. Some places get pissed at all the bad checks, but it’s not like I don’t intend to pay them back as soon as I get the money.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
b, your favorite player just GIDPed to end the game. Indians are good.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]You should do like I do. Start spending your lottery winnings before the lottery. Some places get pissed at all the bad checks, but it’s not like I don’t intend to pay them back as soon as I get the money.[/quote]This is also known as the Tom Ricketts Sports Team Purchase Strategy
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Actually, I’ll spend all that money buying Dodgers lottery tickets (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Actually, I’ll spend all that money buying dishonorably discounted bleacher tickets tickets (dying laughing)[/quote]
Fixed for fury
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]This would almost seem to suggest that first round picks are generally better than 16th round picks.[/quote]1975 first round: 5.5 WAR
1975 16th round: 19.5 WAR
So much for that theory.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=1975&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=16&year_ID=1975&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round
ACTQuote Reply
Tango answers all: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14010
MishQuote Reply
Cubs baserunning cannot be translated
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]
Cubs baserunning cannot be translated[/quote]
Cubs baserunning is like dividing by zero. Cannot be done.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]1975 first round: 5.5 WAR
1975 16th round: 19.5 WAR
So much for that theory.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=year_round&year_ID=1975&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.cgi?draft_round=16&year_ID=1975&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round%5B/quote%5D(dying laughing) All of the 16th round WAR was just Dave Stewart.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Cubs baserunning is like dividing by zero. Cannot be done.[/quote]It’s an enigma wrapped in a riddle.
However, if I were to try translating it to French, it would be something like toute les blain
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Notable Cubs minor league performances:
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
From the “Get off my lawn” department, trying to parallelize saberists and May-21st-Rapturists.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/spiting_rick_reilly_is_straw_man_bill_james_baseballs_harold_camping/#When:09:23:32Z
MishQuote Reply
FanGraphs now with UBR: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/
MishQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I’m glad to see your new store is doing well, MB.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Miles:
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]FanGraphs now with UBR: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/%5B/quote%5DFrom a quick glance, those numbers look quite a bit different from BP’s EqBRR.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid]I’m glad to see your new store is doing well, MB.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If it weren’t for you, we’d be out of business.[/quote]
That’s true. (dying laughing). BTW, I finally got my van fixed, so I’ll be in later this week.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]If it weren’t for you, we’d be out of business.[/quote]
So no one buys knockers?
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]So no one buys knockers?[/quote](dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]So no one buys knockers?[/quote]SK buys them both. I have no idea what he has going on in his basement and don’t want to know. He also buys lotion and awhile back he purchased a basket.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]He also buys lotion and awhile back he purchased a basket.[/quote]
Damnit, SK!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-Elr5K2Vuo#t=0m17s
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Damnit, SK!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-Elr5K2Vuo#t=0m17s%5B/quote%5DThat was a recent PSA I enjoyed.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Tim, you could play that video a hundred times at Wrigley and never get a response.
Also, Miles has been ripping the shit out of the Cubs this year. I wonder what set him off.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] Miles has been ripping the shit out of the Cubs this year. I wonder what set him off.[/quote]
Probably the Cubs.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vAfXNzXueE[/quote]
But will he club a seal to make a deal?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Miles:[/quote]
I think MIles is right about the lack of patience, but at the same time, with opposing teams knowing how swing happy the Cubs are and that they can’t hit balls in the air, why would they want to throw non-strikes? And if they keep throwing strikes, that also reduces the number of walks that one can conceivably take…
I don’t have the ability to look at where pitches are located in the zone for Cubs players so I’m probably wrong about that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think MIles is right about the lack of patience, but at the same time, with opposing teams knowing how swing happy the Cubs are and that they can’t hit balls in the air, why would they want to throw non-strikes? And if they keep throwing strikes, that also reduces the number of walks that one can conceivably take…
I don’t have the ability to look at where pitches are located in the zone for Cubs players so I’m probably wrong about that.[/quote]
But why would you throw hittable pitches to a team that’s going to swing anyway? (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]But why would you throw hittable pitches to a team that’s going to swing anyway? (dying laughing)[/quote]
It’s like a Catch-22, eh?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]It’s like a Catch-22, eh?[/quote]All part of the genius of Mike Quade.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]FanGraphs now with UBR: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/%5B/quote%5DGuess which team ranks dead last in the MLB. Just guess.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]From a quick glance, those numbers look quite a bit different from BP’s EqBRR.[/quote]EQBRR includes base stealing, I believe.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Guess which team ranks dead last in the MLB. Just guess.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011%5B/quote%5D
The Cleveland Spiders.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]All part of the genius of Mike Quade.[/quote]
I guess it depends on the opposing team philosophy…do I want the Cubs to swing and miss at pitches a foot out of the zone, or do I pitch to contact and watch them WAG?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15111385
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]All part of the genius of Mike Quade.[/quote]
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Hey JG, I didn’t know you ate at Olive Garden.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2011/05/17/police_utah_woman_tried_to_trade_salad_for_drugs/?rss_id=Boston.com+–+Latest+news
oogQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Holy shit are the Twins bad.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]EQBRR includes base stealing, I believe.[/quote]Yeah. Fangraphs includes that in wOBA. I’d rather SB/CS be included with baserunning now that they have a metric for baserunning. The Cubs are below average at SB runs according to BP though. I’ll look through it later on, but some of the numbers are just way off. I can understand it with defensive metrics since different data sets are being used, but baserunning metrics are really quite simple.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=oog]Hey JG, I didn’t know you ate at Olive Garden.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2011/05/17/police_utah_woman_tried_to_trade_salad_for_drugs/?rss_id=Boston.com+–+Latest+news%5B/quote%5D
Their salad is like crack.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I just looked back at the ’04 team. Wow did we have shitty luck. Won 89 games and finished 3rd in the Central. Lee, Sosa, ARam, and Moises Alou all had 30+ HRs. Glendon Rusch was phenominal covering for the injuries to Wood and Prior. Maddux and Z were both good. Corey Patterson wasn’t THAT bad.
Damn you Prior.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
2004 and 2009 are quite similar. The 2009 team battled shitty seasons and injuries and still finished above .500. Didn’t every starter in 2009 spend time on the DL? Then there was Milton Bradley who sucked along with Soto, Soriano, Theriot and Ramirez spent a lot of time on the DL. Both the 2004 and 2009 teams were excellent in terms of talent and both teams had shitty luck.
mb21Quote Reply
Kinky.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/5/24/2187478/white-sox-a-j-pierzynski-former-president-bush?login=1306252387#67992790
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/one_of_the_funnier_sadder_ones/
MishQuote Reply
New rambling: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-are-not-the-1997-marlins.html
Aisle424Quote Reply