The Cubs’ uphill battle in the context of a single game

In Uncategorized by mylesLeave a Comment

If we make an assumption that the Mets and the Cubs are evenly matched (and who knows how good that assumption is), I thought it'd be interesting to see what the probability they come back from this deficit. It turns out to be 18.4%. Using a Win Expectancy Finder, that's roughly equivalent to…

Top of the Fourth, down 3 runs, runner on first base, no out.

Top of the First, down 4 runs, no outs and no one on.

Bottom of the Ninth, down 1 run, no one out and no one on.

An enterprising announcer could correctly note that it's like the Cubs are at the bottom of the ninth right now.

 

UPDATE: After last night's loss, it's now down 3 in the bottom of the 8th, or down 2 in the bottom of the ninth.

Share this Post

Leave a Comment