The future Cubs

In Commentary And Analysis, Minor Leagues by dmick89180 Comments

In a couple years the Cubs infield will include future stars like Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill and Brendan Harris. Sammy Sosa will be joined by Corey Patterson and David Kelton. Before long Nic Jackson will take over in CF while Patterson replaces Sosa. Future Hall of Famer Kerry Wood will be at the top of a rotation that includes Mark Prior, Juan Cruz, Angel Guzman and Carlos Zambrano.

This was a decade ago and it doesn't even seem like it was that long ago. The Cubs farm system was stacked. And I mean stacked.

Mark Prior was the number 2 prospect in all of baseball and Cruz was the 6th ranked prospect. He was a future top of the rotation starting pitcher who would help create the best rotation since Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz. It might even be better because the Cubs rotation was going to be 5 deep.

That future infield was going to be awesome. Choi ranked 22nd and was the long-term solution at 1st. Bobby Hill ranked 48th and although Brendan Harris was never ranked in the top 100, he was a highly regarded prospect coming off a .900+ OPS season in HIgh A and AA at the age of 21. He was going to be the 3rd baseman that finally filled that hole that had existed since Ron Santo retired.

Sammy Sosa was at his peak. Corey Patterson was the 2nd ranked prospect in all of baseball. Nic Jackson was going to man CF down the road and he was the 68th ranked prospect. Kelton ranked 45th and would play LF. I remember when Ryno and I first started blogging we'd talk about these guys almost every day. We'd come up with imaginary lineups. The Cubs had a top prospect at every single position they needed one from. 

And that rotation? Wow. That was the best part. Kerry Wood had returned from injury. I'd never seen any player before get so much attention while playing college baseball than Mark Prior got. Juan Cruz may have been better than both of them. Angel Guzman was the 47th ranked prospect. I'm not sure if you remember, but during spring training 2003 some analyst said that Angel Guzman was the best starting pitcher in the Cubs organization. He was better than Wood. Better than Prior. Better than Cruz who was already better than the first two. That was the top 4 in the future Cubs rotation. Add Carlos Zambrano to the mix and you're talking about one of the most stacked farm systems we've seen.

That farm system was like being a Rays fan in recent years. Then they went down one by one. Hee Seop Choi didn't end up being nearly as good as they thought. The same was true with Bobby Hill, Brendan Harris and David Kelton. Nic Jackson suffered some injury and was never the same. Sammy Sosa continued to produce, but at a lower level. Juan Cruz didn't work out as a starting pitcher. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Angel Guzman were repeatedly on the disabled list. For different reasons, none of them lived up to the expectations placed on them with one exception: Carlos Zambrano. So out of all the ones who didn't it's only natural for Cubs fans to despise the one who did.

Anyone who was much of a Cubs fan a decade ago heard all these names. They heard them often. The scouting reports were impressive. They had the numbers to back it up. They were legitimately good prospects in the deepest and best farm system in baseball. It wasn't a question of whether or not the Cubs would win a World Series with these guys, but when? How quickly would it happen because for the first time it seemed inevitable. It's important to point out that it was Jim Hendry who built this farm system. He took the pathetic Cubs farm system and turned it into one of baseball's best.

Anyone who was much of a Cubs fan a decade ago knows to take prospects, their scouting reports and their numbers with a grain of salt. Some of us followed these guys more closely than others, but one by one they went from being top prospects to afterthoughts. Ryno and I spent so much time talking about these Cubs players and I learned a valuable lesson: prospects fail. Almost all of them fail. Teams have about 6 minor league teams. Some might have more. A few might even have less. If we included the Latin American teams they each have it's closer to 8. That's about 6000 players in minor league baseball. There are only 750 MLB jobs. 87.5% of those 6000 will fail. Of the 750 MLB jobs, there are only a few star players per team. Maybe another few who are average and some who are decent, but not regulars. The rest are interchangeable with players in the minor leagues.

Each step along the way talented players are weeded out. Even ones we thought would become stars get stuck in A ball or maybe they don't even get that far. For those who do progress, along the way starting pitchers become relievers and position players move to the right of the defensive spectrum. Players get injured. Some of them never play again. Some of them are never as good as they once were. Some of the players quit because they get sick of riding a bus. Some players simply don't have the necessary focus and their skills erode.

Once a prospect has proven himself one of the better ones in baseball, we often forget that it's a hell of a lot easier to move down the rankings than it is up. If you're ranked 45th, there just isn't much room to move up. Not to mention that prospects are always ranked with last season's stats being weighted most heavily. And we know from research that a player who performed well one year typically performs worse the following.

What is the point of all of this? The Cubs have currently begun to build a much more solid foundation of young talent. It's exciting in many ways and depressing too. I can't help but think of the early 2000s and how it all went to shit. The current farm system doesn't even compare to the one I've been discussing. Despite the Cubs improved farm system, they're still middle of the pack among all MLB teams. It's a step forward, which is what is important, but it's not an especially good system. It's not bad either. In a few years all of these top prospects will be replaced by other top prospects while most of the current ones are trying to re-establish themslves in the minor leagues.

That's just how it goes. Hopefully the Cubs get a little lucky and more prospects succeed than you'd expect. It would certainly be nice after watching last decade's prospect fail over and over. It's fun right now to think about how the Cubs may look with Anthony Rizzo at 1st and Brett Jackson in CF. An even younger and more established Starlin Castro at SS. That's a very nice and young core of talent to build around. It's even more fun to think about Javier Baez, Dan Vogelbach and Shawon Dunston, Jr. joining them. The Cubs don't have much as far as front line starting pitching goes. Trey McNutt needs to rebound and there are some who view him more as a reliever anyway. The same is true for Dillon Maples. There's a lot we don't yet know about Gerardo Concepcion.

It's definitely fun thinking about how good the Cubs can be while also being quite young, but it's not realistic either. If one of Jackson or Rizzo has a decent MLB career that would be pretty good. Odds are they both aren't significant contributors. For that matter, odds are that both have relatively short and unimpressive careers. I'm as high on Brett Jackson as anyone and he undoubtedly has the potential to be a star, but he still has to prove he can do it at the MLB level and that's no easy task. Many far superior prospects have tried and failed.

Some of these guys are so far away it's difficult even imagining them wearing Cubs uniforms. Most of them will get stuck at some level and be forgotten about. Some of them will probably even be traded. That's one of the two major differences between the current farm system and the one a decade ago. The one in the early 2000s had significantly better talent. The other difference is that much of the Cubs minor league talent is years away. A decade ago those guys I mentioned weren't far away from the big leagues.

Patterson, Cruz, Zambrano, and Prior had already reached the big leagues. Kelton, Choi, Harris and Hill were in the high minors. Jackson was in HIgh A. Take Brett Jackson and Antony Rizzo and multiply them by 5 and that's what the Cubs farm system was a decade ago. They had impact talent ready to contribute at nearly every position. Sometimes I forget how exciting it was to follow the Cubs minor leaguers back then. I hope the Cubs can build something that even resembles that system. Hopefully that system will result in more successes than the one a decade ago did, but it's entirely possible (maybe even likely) that we see similar results.

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  1. Berselius

    In a couple years the Cubs infield will include future stars like Hee Seop Choi, Bobby Hill and Brendan Harris. Sammy Sosa will be joined by Corey Patterson and David Kelton. Before long Nic Jackson will take over in CF while Patterson replaces Sosa. Future Hall of Famer Kerry Wood will be at the top of a rotation that includes Mark Prior, Juan Cruz, Angel Guzman and Carlos Zambrano.

    Thanks MB, now I’m going to have to leave work and starting drinking heavily at the nearest bar.

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  2. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    (dying laughing) all of this talk about Cubs prospects has reminded me of a time when the Cubs actually had a good farm system. Bubbles penciling in his 2017 lineup and rotation the other day reminded me of Ryno and I doing that all the time with that group. I didn’t include Felix Pie, but after 2002 he was the top prospect in the Arizona League. After the next season he was ranked 72nd. Pie in 2002/2003 reminds me of Baez and Vogelbach. Let me know when they get to High A.

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  3. josh

    There’s a lot we don’t yet know about Gerardo Concepcion.

    Such as his real name and age.

    I still remember that collision between Wood and Choi. Bad times.

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  4. Mercurial Outfielder

    The team seemed to have a plan and were executing it very efficiently. Back when I thought the Cubs could mend my heart

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  5. dylanj

    the biggest thing I’ve learned is that I think people overvalue guys who tear up the low leagues. When you see a guy like Rizzo or Jackson who can succeed at a young age and high levels there is better chance of them doing SOMETHING in the in bigs vs a kid who had a awesome season in A ball. Looking at the top lists there seems to be a fetish of having guys just drafted or who have one good low A season ranked very high. I prefer guys who can do well in AA or AAA or can string a couple of years together.

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  6. Mercurial Outfielder

    I’m really trying to resist the urge to C: BTFTC the living hell out of that comment, josh. (dying laughing)

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  7. Pezcore

    The simularities between Nic Jackson and Brett Jackson are kinda scary. Two centerfielders, low-top 100 prospects at age 23, just had a 100 strikeout season in AAA…

    BJax did well at AAA, while NJax sucked…

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  8. Mish

    Not to diminish your point (because I do think it is valid), but to be fair, Zambrano and Prior generally did pan out, with the latter being shelved due to the injuries. And Hill and Choi were turned into the offensive core (Lee and Ramirez) for the next 6 years. So maybe while those players themselves didn’t pan out, they did provide value to the organization in what they brought back.

    All that stuff about the Cubs portending to be dominant in the future is still spot on, though.

    Just sayin’.

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  9. Aisle424

    Seriously though, I think it is wise to reign in our expectations of these guys. That said, I would rather have a system that is stacked with highly rated prospects than guys who manage to scrap their way into not being cut. Eventually, you would think the deck would get hot and we’d start seeing the run of prospects that succeed like the Rays current stretch and how many of the high-rated prospects from the 80s succeeded (though mostly not with the Cubs).

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  10. mb21

    @ dylanj:
    Obviously age and level are important and it gives us more of an idea what the player can do in the future, but I don’t know how much it matters. A lot of the guys I named had already done well in the high minors. As I said, that’s the difference between then and now. The Cubs have two guys have done well in the high minors and that’s it. Even those two can’t touch a few of the prospects the Cubs had then.

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  11. AndCounting

    Awesome, MB. This has been the frustrating thing about this offseason. I don’t know how much Thoyer could have done to make the Cubs contenders this year, and I’m glad they’re working to improve the farm system. But the Cubs are pretty much guaranteed to be bad this year and they have increased the odds of being good later. But that’s not a reason in itself to be overjoyed. I think having a good system and sound philosophy will prove keys to success over time, but they’ve really done nothing to instill much confidence in the next five years. Great possibilities, but pretty low probabilities.

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  12. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    Definitely. The Cubs were better off a decade ago than they are now. It’s that simple. Hopefully they can begin to build a similar system and regardless of what happens, you’re a better organization because of it. If you have two guys like Rizzo and Jackson you need to get damn lucky for them both to reach their potential. If you have Prior, Cruz, Guzman and Zambrano you’re going to get 1 who reaches his potential (injuries included). You need Rizzo, Jackson, Baez, Vogelbach and they all need to be in the high minors performing well. There’s so much that can happen to Baez and Vogelbach that in all honesty they’re nothing more than organizational depth at this point. Talented prospects for sure, but so far away from the big leagues that you can’t take them that seriously. When the Cubs get 4 or 5 Rizzo’s and Jackson’s in the high minors with talented prospects in the low minors that’s when you’re going to be good.

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  13. AndCounting

    To finish my point ( try not to do that too often) the Cubs just haven’t made any moves that make them definitively better right now. Until they do that by adding players who can be expected to contribute on the major league level immediately, I can’t get excited about this team. The outlook is unquestionably greater, but the present reality isn’t dance-of-joy worthy.

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  14. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    (dying laughing) I like it. I’m just not going to get my hopes up for these guys like I once did. I’ve mentioned it several times, but I’m probably more optimistic for Jackson than anyone else. I think he can be a legitimate superstar. I also think he can strikeout 495 times per season and be useless. I’m not nearly as optimistic about Rizzo. He’s a 1st baseman and although he’s quite young and has played well along the way, he didn’t exactly tear shit up until he got to the PCL.

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  15. Ron

    I thought spring was supposed to be filled with hope and aspirations. Thanks for killing it. Oh and Hendry may have scoured and recruited them but when it came time to manage them via trades and such as the GM he didn’t do so good.

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  16. Mucker

    MB, how high was that Cub system ranked as a whole? Do you remember? With all those top 100 prospects, seems like they would have been a highly ranked system.

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  17. mb21

    @ Mucker:
    They were number 1 a couple times and number 2. They were the best farm system in baseball. They had more minor league talent than any team did. They had one of the best farm systems any team had ever had up to that point. The young talent the organization had a decade ago is something we’ll probably not see in Chicago in our lifetimes. The amount of young impact talent was impressive. The depth in the organization was equally impressive. Felix Pie wasn’t mentioned in the article, but he was already a top prospect. He was already going to be replacing the awesome Corey Patterson down the road.

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  18. josh

    @ mb21:
    Why can’t we see it again? What did Jim Hendry do that can’t be repeated? More importantly (though futile), I’m curious to know what the hell happened to destroy our system.

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  19. mb21

    @ josh:
    Pitchers get injured. A lot. You’ve seen it. Many teams have seen it happen to them. It will continue to happen. Jackson was injured too and was never the same. Patterson, Hill, Choi, Kelton and Harris just never worked out as expected.

    Why won’t we see it again? For the same reason we’ll probably never see another 2008 Cubs. They were so damn good that it’s unlikely they’ll be that good again. The same is true for the minor leagues. Hopefully they will be, but I’m not betting any money on it.

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  20. josh

    @ mb21:
    Right, but some team has to be the best. I don’t see why it can’t, with some time and proper leadership, be the Cubs again.I guess I was more wondering why, if Hendry built that group, it didn’t continue. Did the emphasis switch? Or just a run of bad luck?

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  21. fang2415

    Mark Prior was the number 2 prospect in all of baseball

    Corey Patterson was the 2nd ranked prospect in all of baseball.

    False.

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  22. ACT

    mb21 wrote:

    For the same reason we’ll probably never see another 2008 Cubs. They were so damn good that it’s unlikely they’ll be that good again.

    I think that’s overstating things. 97-win teams aren’t rare at all. The Cubs have enough money that I’d be surprised if they don’t luck into another season like that in my lifetime.

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  23. mb21

    @ Rice Cube:
    Exactly. A true 81-team will occasionally win 97 games. The 2008 Cubs were awesome when they entered the season. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the Cubs ever field a team as good as that one on Opening Day. I won’t be shocked if they do, but that was easily the best Cubs team in lifetime and I’ve been following this team for 30+ years.

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  24. Berselius

    Mucker wrote:

    2008 seems like fucking eons ago. What a disappointing season that was. That was a season I recently didn’t enjoy.

    It was a season I recently enjoyed, despite the last 3 games. Sounds like you forgot to savor every moment.

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  25. Mucker

    Berselius wrote:

    Mucker wrote:
    2008 seems like fucking eons ago. What a disappointing season that was. That was a season I recently didn’t enjoy.
    It was a season I recently enjoyed, despite the last 3 games. Sounds like you forgot to savor every moment.

    (dying laughing) yeah I should have said that was an ending to a season I recently didn’t enjoy.

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  26. Mucker

    Aisle424 wrote:

    I had a good new dancing gif for when we like something, but now I may never have a chance to use it.

    Is it Chris Farley as Barney the Chippendale dancer?

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  27. Berselius

    Rice Cube wrote:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7857/cubs-spring-preview-catchers

    Levine said Soto was almost traded to the Pirates last season. That was a transaction I do not recall.

    Almost as puzzling as this bit on Castillo

    The 24-year-old has big-time power and can throw with the best of them, but the Cubs are not sure of his pitch-calling ability. Castillo called for a slider from Justin Berg in a 2010 game and Giants outfielder Pat Burrell hit a game-changing home run in San Francisco. After that game the previous front office soured on Castillo. He has the tools but maybe not the tool box.

    One pitch? Jeez.

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  28. mb21

    @ GW:
    I don’t believe the Cubs front office made a decision on one pitch any more than I believe Tony Campana is going to lead the league in HR next season. Castillo had an .815 OPS in the PCL in 2010 (league average .780), but he had OPS’s of .638, .777, .661 the previous 3 seasons. In 2010 at Iowa he had an OBP of .317 compared to a league that was nearly .350. His .340ish wOBA was good for a below average 98 wRC+. That’s why he didn’t get the job in 2011 (just wasn’t very good the previous few seasons).

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  29. josh

    What the holy fuck. The Giants just signed Ramon Ortiz? The Cubs got outbid on Ramon Ortiz by another professional baseball team? What’s the hell is going on in MLB?

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  30. Berselius

    josh wrote:

    What the holy fuck. The Giants just signed Ramon Ortiz? The Cubs got outbid on Ramon Ortiz by another professional baseball team? What’s the hell is going on in MLB?

    The Cubs need to hurry up and nail down the 11th starter spot before the market dries up.

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  31. ACT

    @ mb21:
    The 2008 Cubs were also lucky in many ways. Their position players were almost injury-free (except Soriano), Demp had a fluke year, Kerry had his best year as a reliever, and almost nobody had a bad year.

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  32. ACT

    Don’t get me wrong. They were an excellent team, but I doubt that if we reran the season, they’d get 97 wins half the time. I think you have to regress their record toward .500 to get their true talent level, which is hardly historic.

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  33. ACT

    One final comment: by “luck,” I didn’t necessarily mean an 81-win team winning 97 games. I meant that, through random year-to-year fluctuations in talent, The Cubs are likely to put out really good teams every now and then. I don’t think the 2008 team, great as it was, is so high a standard that we’re unlikely to see it again. That was a consistently strong team, but also one with no legitimate superstars (as well as a couple of players who put up star-quality numbers who weren’t really that good.)

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  34. ACT

    mb21 wrote:

    The average projection for the 2008 Cubs was about 92 to 94 wins. Any team that wins 97 got a little lucky.

    Right. Really good, but hardly a once-in-a-lifetime team.

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  35. GBTS

    Suburban kid wrote:

    1992, Aisley. That’s when that gif girl was born. I have items I recently placed in the fridge older than that. You shouldn’t let me view this.

    You have stuff from 1992 that you recently put in the fridge?

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  36. Berselius

    GBTS wrote:

    You have stuff from 1992 that you recently put in the fridge?

    I think he meant that he put it in the Fridge while watching new episodes of Twin Peaks and/or Dallas

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  37. mb21

    It sucks that Whitney Houston died, but does every fucking channel have to play I Will Always Love You every 4 minutes? It’s driving me fucking nuts.

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  38. Mish

    Rice Cube wrote:

    Who says “Opps”? The only time I’ve heard people say that regularly is on Deep Space Nine.

    This comes up every so often. I say Oh-Pee-Ess, personally, and won’t ever call it OPS. I think the first time I heard it called “Opps” was by Jon Miller, but I found out soon thereafter that many people use that. A lot of people also say “wubba” for wOBA, which I don’t do either.

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  39. jtsunami

    mb21 wrote:

    Baez, Vogelbach, Maples, Dunston, Jr. and all those guys are nothing but potential at this point.

    Actually they are human beings.

    /snark

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  40. Mucker

    Yeah, I usually try to sound out all the stats. I’ll say av-guh for AVG, hur for HR, sulg for SLG, so for SO, seej for CG, etc. It helps me remember the stats better.

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  41. AndCounting

    For the basic stats I prefer old-school slang terms with mild innuendo.

    HR = dingers
    AVG = knock rate
    RBI = for her pleasures

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  42. WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:
    I guess. I’m not sure of the video I posted because I can’t see youtube @ work. I suppose DJ Kitty goes on the scoreboards or whatever like a rally thing. I hope we can get something similar on our regular-tron.

    Also, how was this missed? http://www.joesportsfan.com/st-louis-cardinals/this-week-in-homosexual-mascot-marriages-fredbird-and-the-rally-squirrel/

    Rally squirrel + Fredbird = ??? Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

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  43. WaLi

    @ Rice Cube:
    Yeah I guess they put it on their scoreboard to rally the 3 fans in attendance. I hope we can get something like that on our regular-tron. May be able to boost each player’s WAR by at lesat .1

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  44. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    It could have to do with transferring servers. It takes between 2 and 48 hours for the new nameservers to propagate. You can even find yourself on this server and then hours later be back on the old one.

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  45. WaLi

    mb21 wrote:

    Or in the case of your comments, they were marked as spam for obvious reason.

    no worries.

    So is it just a quiet Thursday afternoon or are the server issues kicking out all your best customers?

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  46. Mish

    Can we make a pact that the Kate Upton GIF is carried forward to all posts for the foreseeable future (in the comments is fine)? I have lost way too much time watching it and would like to continue to do so.

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  47. SkipVB

    Cubs have nothing committed to players in 2015 or beyond. Hooray, with this group. Other teams sure do. The link is a glimpse on teams in 2015 who will feel like they are the Cubs of 2011.

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