The Ghosts of Free Agency Future

In Commentary And Analysis by GW151 Comments

In the aftermath of the recently announced deal with the city to renovate Wrigley Field, Theo Epstein spoke to the media about its potential benefits to the team:

Our payroll now is third in the division. That’s fine. But it should be first in the division. So this is one of the ways that we’re going to get there.

It should be, we are on the same page. And this is one of the ways to get there. Still with you. I'm just struggling to figure out what the other ways are. Because this…

some aggressiveness in free agency

…I have to be honest, I don't see it.

Perhaps the greatest fault of the Cubs organization circa the late Hendry era was it's reluctance to invest in the minor league system. While other teams were stockpiling compensation picks, luring players from college with massive late-round bonuses, and throwing money around on the international free agent market, the Cubs mostly demurred.* When Theo was hired, he pledged to change all that, and no doubt he would have were it not for the new CBA, which hit like an angry Carlos Quentin and abruptly ended most of those practices. And while the new CBA was a shock, most of us figured: "hey, it's a setback, but there's always free agency." However, a new trend was slowly building and has now nearly overwhelmed the game. No one is making it to free agency any more. Prospects that the Cubs were busy not acquiring years ago are now being locked up well into their 30s, just long enough to get past the time when other teams would have any desire to sign them. 

*The exception being 2011, of course, when Hendry got either religion or a mandate from upstairs to spend big.

Don't believe me? First, I used Fangraphs to find a list of all the players who accumulated at least 5 wins above replacement between the 2010 and 2012. An average player is worth about 2 WAR per season, so this is a fairly low hurdle to clear. It captures more or less everyone who has had a good season for two out of the last three years. Then I used Cot's and Baseball-Reference to determine when each of these players could potentially reach free agency. I filtered out everyone who will be 30 or older by the time they get there. The front office has repeatedly emphasized the importance of acquiring young players close to the prime of their careers. These are the players that they want to spend money on, the building block pieces which would presumably be at the heart of any effort to lead the NL Central in payroll.

Behold, I give you free agency future:

Club Option

** Two Club Options

+ Two Player Options

2014

Phil Hughes, P, 28

Seriously. That's it.

2015

Pablo Sandoval, 3B, 28

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, 29

Billy Butler, DH, 29*

Dexter Fowler, CF, 29

Colby Rasmus, CF, 29

Clayton Kershaw, SP, 27

Johnny Cueto, SP, 29*

Yovani Gallardo, SP, 29*

Homer Bailey, SP, 29

If you think Clayton Kershaw will make it to free agency, then either you believe he's on the verge of a catastrophic arm injury, or you are blissfully unaware of the goings-on in LA over the last 11 months. Otherwise, there are some decent pieces there. We can assume a few marginal players will take a step up over the next two years to join this group. Overall, that's not likely to change the way this looks, which is decidedly fair to middling.

2016

Jason Heyward, OF, 26

Austin Jackson, OF, 29

Justin Upton, OF, 28

Alex Avila, C, 29

Gerardo Parra, OF, 29

Mat Latos, SP, 28

Jaime Garcia, SP, 29 **

Rick Porcello, SP, 27

Trevor Cahill, SP, 28 +

Jhoulys Chacin, SP, 28

And now we find ourselves in 2016, the last for which Theo is under contract. If we are lucky, this could project as really good year for the Cubs. And it could be a banner year for free agents, but that is really anyone's guess given how many things could change between now and then. Some of these guys will fall off, and they will be joined by others who breakout. If the early extension model continues, many of them won't make it to the market. My guess, though, is that by then a few marginal guys will have been overpaid to such an extent in free agency that some will decide that waiting is worth the risk. And the Cubs will aggressively pursue them. In 2016.

My point is not that the Cubs are doomed.* There are a few 30 year olds barely missing my age cutoff that would make each of these classes look better. However, avoiding guys over 30 is central to what the front office is trying to accomplish (namely, sustained success). It seems clear to me that the Cubs will be forced to do a lot of things they would rather not: pony up for guys over 30, take on good players with bad contracts from other teamsship out prospects to smaller market clubs to get a crack at extending bigger names, and pray to Jeff Samardzija Jesus that his will be done, role players be transformed, and prospects pan out. 

*The Cubs are probably doomed.

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  1. SVB

    The Hope Monster thrives on the false hope of Cubs fans, right? Build them up to feed off their hope.

    GW is trying to starve the Hope Monster. He’s saving us from Hope.

    (good analysis anyway, even if we are all crying in heaps now.)

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  2. SVB

    (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) i love the intertubz for its random shit.

    This is how Shark was transformed!!!

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  3. WaLi

    @ dmick89:
    It was a good read if it wasn’t about how dismal our future looks. I guess the question is how many decent young free agents were making it in the past? I thought most free agents were over 30.

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  4. dmick89

    @ WaLi:
    I think most are anymore. It didn’t used to be that way, but teams are calling players up later than before. I wonder how the picture looks if you change the upper age to 32 since The has mentioned that as a peak age.

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  5. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Any chance Robinson Cano actually makes it to FA this offseason? I could see the Cubs ponying up for him, even if he’s 30. His bat would be fine if he had to move to OF. In fact, I’d probly go ahead and do that given how short the careers of 2B tend to be. Sign Cano, trade Barney. Move Cano to OF in 1-2 years, and fill in with whoever emerges from the minors. Cubs have some good 2B prospects.

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  6. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    Also, if I wasn’t at work right now and had time, I’d try to dig through rosters and see some players under contract that might be obtainable for mostly salary relief but could still provide value. I’d assume the Cubs will do some of that too.

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  7. Author
    GW

    @ dmick89:

    For 2014, additional guys 30-32:

    Brian McCann, C, 30
    Chase Headley, 3B, 30
    Robinson Cano, 2B, 31
    Chris Young, OF, 30*
    Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, 30
    Shin-Soo Choo, OF, 31
    Hunter Pence, OF, 31
    Yunel Escobar, SS, 31**
    Jon Lester, SP, 30
    Josh Johnson, SP, 30
    Ubaldo, SP, 30
    Garza, SP, 30
    Gavin Floyd, SP, 31
    Ricky Nolasco, SP, 31
    Jason Hammel, SP, 30

    If you have been in a coma for the last two years, that starting pitching class looks amazing. I doubt Cano ends up going anywhere.

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  8. Author
    GW

    @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:

    andre ethier is a guy who immediately comes to mind, with yasiel puig looking pretty advanced. not that the dodgers need salary relief, and they would be better off just platooning those two. I could see that happening, though.

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  9. Recalcitrant Blogger Nate

    @ GW:

    Yea, I’m guessing Cano gets extended. The only others I’m remotely interested in are Headley, Ellsbury, Lester, and maybe Choo. But I’m not really pumped about any of them.

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  10. Author
    GW

    @ GW:

    2015, additional guys 30-32:

    Dustin Pedroia, 2B, 31*
    Brett Gardner, CF, 31
    Rickie Weeks, 2B, 32+
    Hanley Ramirez, 3B, 31
    Denard Span, CF, 31*
    Melky Cabrera, OF, 31
    Nick Markakis, OF, 31+
    Max Scherzer, SP, 30
    Brandon Morrow, SP, 30*
    Justin Masterson, SP, 30
    Chad Billingsley, SP, 30+
    Luke Hochevar, RP, 31

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  11. josh

    Look at the ridiculous money Pujy, Princy, and Hamiltony got. Surely there are young players who want to take a shot at that kind of money. Maybe not.

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  12. Author
    GW

    @ GW:

    2016, Additional guys 30-32:

    Alex Gordon, LF, 32+
    Matt Wieters, C, 30
    Howie Kendrick, 2B, 32
    Ian Desmond, SS, 30
    Matt Joyce, OF, 31
    Drew Stubbs, OF, 31
    Cliff Pennington, SS, 32
    John Jaso, C, 32
    David Price, SP, 30
    Doug Fister, SP, 32
    Ian Kennedy, SP, 31
    Jordan Zimmermann, SP, 30
    Ricky Romero, SP, 31*
    Clay Buchholz, SP, 31**

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  13. Mucker

    Would the Cubs draft Appel? They passed on him last year so maybe they don’t like him all that much. Or did they pass because of his money demands?

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  14. Author
    GW

    @ josh:

    I think you are right, and I allude to that in the article (probably not clearly), but I don’t see it happening for a few years. I mean, if Heyward (2016) or Stanton (2017) hold out, they will get silly contracts that make everyone who signed extensions insanely jealous. But that’s still years down the road.

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  15. Author
    GW

    @ Mucker:

    I think they passed because they really loved Almora. The impression I got was that he was hands-down their favorite player in the draft. In addition, the scouts are saying that Appel has improved this year. I think if he’s there, he’s the pick.

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  16. JonKneeV

    I actually like a lot of those players in the 30-31 range. Headley, Alex Gordon, Cano, Masterson, Weeks, etc. I think you could get a lot of those guys on 3 or 4 year deals. I actually prefer those than getting the Kershaw’s or Grienke’s and having to commit to 6-8 years.

    Hopefully we develop some impact all star type pitching and position players and fill in the holes with the above players. This years draft is probably the most important draft Theo will have during his 5 year (or more) stint with the Cubs.

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  17. Author
    GW

    @ JonKneeV:

    Headley: good with the glove, my guess is that the power in 2012 was an aberration. not crazy about him

    Gordon: like him. 32 year old in 2016, though. would much rather j. upton if they wait that long

    Cano: i’ll believe he leaves the Yanks when I see it

    Masterson: like him. gets slaughtered by lefties, though.

    Weeks: meh

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  18. Suburban kid

    It only took sixth starter Chris Capuano getting hurt in a brawl for Ted Lilly to make a rotation.

    How the mighty have fallen.

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  19. dmick89

    This is really good stuff, GW. Thanks for doing the extra legwork. Mind doing a bit more? Not sure how easy it is for you do or not, but could you lower the WAR to 4 over 3 years? What about 6 WAR?

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  20. Author
    GW

    @ dmick89:

    At 6 WAR, you lose Gerardo Parra, John Jaso, Cliff Pennington, Nick Markakis, Colby Rasmus, Escobar, Jason Hammel, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Luke Hochevar, and Homer Bailey.

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  21. Aisle424

    Suburban kid wrote:

    Why don’t you have it up now?

    They don’t air it live. I’m curious if they air everything because he had talked about it being about a 10 minute segment, but I was on the phone with him for about 30.

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  22. GBTS

    @ Aisle424:
    So, Mr. 424, you admit to grabbing her “sweet can.” Is there anything you’d like to say for yourself?

    Mr. 424, your silence only incriminates you further.

    Calm down Mr. 424! Nooo! Noooooooo!!!!!

    *Dramatization – May Not Have Happened*

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  23. Aisle424

    GBTS wrote:

    @ Mish:
    I feel like that guy should have moved his car.

    The owner tried to and the police stopped her because they said it could collapse at any moment. Then it did.

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  24. dmick89

    @ Suburban kid:
    It makes me laugh and I figure that’s all that should matter.

    Network boss: will this make dmick89 laugh?
    Show creater: no.
    boss: we don’t want it.

    I wish they’d do that for all comedies.

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  25. Author
    GW

    @ GW:

    Nothing really special in the older hitters that I originally left out. Maybe Corey Hart if you think he can still play the outfield.

    2014
    Stephen Drew, SS, 31
    Geo Soto, C, 31
    Mike Napoli, 1B, 32
    Corey Hart, 1B, 32
    Jhonny Peralta, SS, 32
    Kelly Johnson, 2B, 32
    Omar Infante, 2B, 32
    David Murphy, OF, 32
    Brendan Ryan, SS, 32

    2015
    JJ Hardy, SS, 32
    Alberto Callaspo, IF, 32
    Russell Martin, C, 32

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  26. Suburban kid

    Well, the overall situation or general premise is good, but the specific situations in the episodes are kinda lame.

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  27. dmick89

    Len just said a pitcher can win a game while pitching less than 5 innings if it’s a rain-shortened game. Maybe I’m just tired or something (dumb?), but how is that possible? I’m assuming this isn’t a reliever he’s talking about because, duh. In order for a game to be official, doesn’t the losing team have to bat 5 times?

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  28. Author
    GW

    @ GW:

    older pitchers omitted originally in the comments:

    2014

    Jason Vargas, SP, 31
    James Shields, SP, 32*
    Shaun Marcum, SP, 32
    Scott Baker, SP, 32
    Paul Maholm, SP, 32

    That Shields option is probably picked up. Maholm actually improves the group quite a bit (dying laughing)

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  29. dmick89

    @ GW:
    After looking through this, what do you think Theo means by spending money? I certainly don’t expect a lot of free agents worthy of long-term deals to be hitting the market. Those who have a shot (among the ones you’ve listed here) mostly inspire a big yawn.

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  30. dmick89

    A moment later Len also mentioned Kyuji Fujikawa getting a win while pitching only an inning so who knows what the hell he was really talking about. I think he confused himself.

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  31. Author
    GW

    @ dmick89:

    Maybe he means an extension for Samardzija (dying laughing)

    I honestly think he was just saying what was expected of him based on the Wrigley announcement. I don’t want to read into his tone based on the written quotes, but it seems clear that he knows there’s not a lot out there, and development is a much bigger deal.

    I mean, I think they will spend money if and when castro and rizzo plus a prospect or two get good enough to put a decent team on the field, whether through trade or signing older guys. Until then, I think we should expect more of the same, value/upside guys and hope they become more than that.

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  32. Aisle424

    @ Suburban kid:

    I like it. It’s light comedy. Nothing ground-breaking, but I basically like the characters and they seem to have a good comedic chemistry. Most of the funnier things revolve around Sheldon’s inability to function in social situations, but it makes me laugh pretty consistently. I only watch it in syndication, so I don’t know what the current season is like. It’s probably reaching that point all sitcoms eventually do where they’re out of plausible ideas, so they have to make the characters do things they never would have before, or introduce new characters, or have a baby-delivered-in-an-elevator episode.

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  33. Aisle424

    @ dmick89:

    She was never in the car. It was parked outside her house and she wanted to move it when she saw the hole. One of the cars was being driven when the sinkhole happened and that driver was taken to the hospital with a head injury, I think, but it didn’t sound like it was overly serious.

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  34. Author
    GW

    @ dmick89:

    changing the lower bound to 4 WAR turned out to be not that difficult, and equally uninspiring

    2014
    Kurt Suzuki, C, 30

    2015
    Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, 30

    2016
    Sean Rodriguez, 2B, 31
    Daric Barton, 1B, 29
    Gaby Sanchez, 1B, 32
    Alcides Escobar, SS, 29++
    Daniel Murphy, 2B, 31
    Bud Norris, SP, 32

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  35. josh

    @ GW:
    Yeah, but there is the draft, and there are trades. There are ways to build a competitive team, still. J. Upton is an example. He seemed like a DBack superstar, but then they traded him. If they can get on the verge with a good draft or two, and fill out with free agents without trying to sign the old superstars, it could still work.

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  36. Author
    GW

    @ josh:

    yeah, I’ve been trying to say that throughout. they could still get good, they just can’t do it the way they originally envisioned.

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  37. Author
    GW

    And this exercise really made me wish they had been able to get upton. I mean, I wanted it to happen at the time, but this…

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  38. josh

    @ GW:
    You’re depressing me even worse, damn it. The traditional methods sucked anyway. There was only one or two teams that did them well. Most floundered around and stayed shitty for years. I know next year will be a wash, too, but I gotta hope they get lucky enough and are smart enough to be competitive after that.

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  39. Aisle424

    @ Suburban kid:
    If you don’t find Sheldon funny, then you’re not going to like the rest of the show very much. He’s very much the key to the funniest stuff, in my opinion.

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  40. dmick89

    You guys are thinking about this sitcom thing too much.

    Does it make dmick89 laugh? Yes. Lets be real. That’s all that matters. (dying laughing)

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  41. Rizzo the Rat

    *Checks box score*

    Cubs beat one of the best teams in baseball, Castro drew two walks, Soriano hit a home run, and the Cubs’ bullpen pitched 2 scoreless innings. What’s going on here? Did someone hack the site?

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  42. mobile svb

    Based on the judgment of the official scorer if the starting pitcher appears likely to have won a game but could not because of rain delay, he can be awarded the win. So if a team is up 15-2 in the 4th and the game is delayed for 3 hr by a rain delay or darkness or continued the next day, the startee can be awarded the win e en if he doesn’t come out to pitch the 5th. Or if the game restarts but only goes 6 innings total.

    I’m pretty sure this is correct and Len was right.

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  43. SVB

    @ Rice Cube:
    Thanks…here it is.

    (b) The “must pitch five complete innings” rule in respect to the starting pitcher shall be in effect for all games of six or more innings. In a five inning game, credit the starting pitcher with a game won if he has pitched at least four complete innings and his team not only is in the lead when he is replaced but remains in the lead the remainder of the game.

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  44. SVB

    @ dmick89:
    That’s my baseball fact contribution for the year. The bill for my consulting fee is in the mail. Please make sure the peanuts you send in payment are wrapped in plastic so there is at least a Lillibridge chance that they will arrive uneaten and not stale. (dying laughing)

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  45. Rice Cube

    @ WaLi:
    I recall OV saying Vitters had a wRC+ of 7 last season, but it’s kind of hard to pay attention to baseball at this hour given the other worldly events that have transpired.

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  46. Leage of Legends Cheat

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