Now that Spring Training is a small blip on the horizon, I figure we might as well start blogging again. Hopefully the 4 daily readers we have are still with us!
When people compare teams, they generally look at their stars. That's entirely reasonable; each team's best player necessarily provides the greatest benefit, so it's incredibly important that you have some of them. That said, if you have 2 great players and 7 awful ones in your lineup, you still aren't going to score many runs. Nobody is driving them in, and they have nobody to drive in. A short simplification proof follows:
Let's say you have 2 players. They both get a "hit" 35% of the time, and if they get consecutive hits, they score. You would expect this pairing to score (.35)^2 = 12.25% of the time. If you have a guy who gets on 40% of the time and a guy who gets on 30% of the time, they average the same amount (35%), but now they only score (.4)*(.3) = 12% of the time. With the exception of home runs and rare other cases, you generally always need 2 successes (or more) in an inning to score a run. This underscores the importance of having a lineup with depth.
To that end, I looked at the 5th best player on each team in the NL Central by Steamer projections (I'd've used ZiPS or WARP, but ZiPS isn't available yet and WARP is proprietary). That seems to me the best surrogate for team depth, because after the 5th or 6th part of the average team's lineup, scoring runs is kind of a freeroll.
5. Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker (.249/.322/.397, .314 wOBA)
Man, is this team bad. Joey Votto is a perennial MVP candidate; after him, their next best hitter is projected to have a .323 wOBA (somebody named Adam Duvall). I'm not sure this team is worse than the Cubs were 4 years ago, but they have to be close.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Josh Harrison (.282/.321/.414, .318 wOBA)
Steamer is pretty down on the Pirates, with only McCutchen and Marte being standouts. That said, the Pirates' depth goes far down, and they have 9 people projected to be league-average or better.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: Stephen Piscotty (.267/.327/.407, .319 wOBA)
The Cards have the same composition as the Pirates do, except without the top-end. Steamer isn't a fan of Holliday or Carpenter (at least to get to MVP levels), but they don't have any really embarassing positions as far as I can see.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: Jonathan Lucroy (.273/.339/.417, .330 wOBA)
The Brewers are unfairly benefitting from me choosing 5 instead of, say, 7. The Brew Crew have 6 people projected to be better than league-average, and they have no top-end, but the collection of the 5 will probably score more runs than people give them credit for. I'm not about to project even a league-average offensive season from Milwaukee, but their offense shouldn't be dreadful.
1. Chicago Cubs: Ben Zobrist (.273/.356/.424, .340 wOBA)
Zobrist (.340 wOBA) and Heyward (.352 wOBA) were both added this offseason, which really pushed the Cubs upward. That said, 1 through 3 are all homegrown (Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, respectively). Crazily enough, Soler is 6th on the list (.326) and Baez is next (.318). Steamer sees a struggle for Russell (.247/.307/.394), but the top 5 is so good that the Cubs have a good chance of leading the NL in runs this year.
The Cubs' starting 5 is miles ahead of the next best team in the division, though the backend is at least not projected as well as the Pirates or the Cardinals. Monday, I'll take a quick look at the pitching staves.
Comments
We just moved into our new house in Crown Point, and there’s a McDonald’s across the street and to the right. It’s like I’m in the Frontier League of restaurants.
mylesQuote Reply
Haha nice. Crown Point actually has some OK-ish family run restaurants in the square. It’s one of the better places to live in The Region.
I’m from Highland. If you ever want some recommendations, let me know.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I grew up in Crown Point! We actually just moved back from Indianapolis half a year ago, and were living with my parents-in-law until we bought this house.
I literally live a block and a half from station 21, which is a pretty good local place.
mylesQuote Reply
What about the Cleveland Steamer projections?
I’ll show myself out.
berseliusQuote Reply
Speaking of hometown replacement level restaurants, I was expressing my bafflement at a friend from grad school who hit up a bunch of breweries in my hometown last week. I still think of it as a town that was justifiably excited to get a Subway when I was in high school (dying laughing).
berseliusQuote Reply
That joke stinks!
#miltonberle
MylesQuote Reply
My other favorite pizza hut milf blog has been pretty sparse lately, so until that blog starts to clean up it’s act, I guess I’m stuck with this one.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I’ve taken some time during my hiatus to investigate what makes a blog popular and I’ll be working on some new posts soon:
Cubs’ Players Wives Ranked: Who Do We Want to Bang Most?
Women in Sports Media: These Bitches Need to Shut Up
Which Cubs Player is the Biggest Credit to His Race?
Why Are Other Teams’ Fans So Gay?
Best Upskirt Photos from the Bleachers – A Slideshow
aisle424Quote Reply
aisle424,
Won’t Barstool be mad that you jacked all their stuff?
MillertimeQuote Reply
Millertime,
I think they’re too busy being dicks to Julie to notice.
PerkinsQuote Reply
aisle424,
Looking forward to sharing all of those to my Linkedin network.
uncle daveQuote Reply
aisle424,
Instead of imitating Rant Sports, why don’t we just insult them again so they bring all their traffic here to make stupid comments?
JonKneeVQuote Reply
aisle424,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20160205&content_id=163745274&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc
dmick89Quote Reply
The plus side of not obsessing about your favorite team day in and day out is that when shit does happen you can enjoy it. Wake me up when the first practice game is on.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Don’t tell me what to do.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
Yeah, it’s been nice not obsessing about them as I did for so many years. I would like to write more, but I just have so little time these days.
Also, what berselius said recently is 100% right. Whatever I’d add has already been said.
dmick89Quote Reply
This piece just reinforces the notion that not only is this likely the greatest Cub team of our lifetimes but also the best positioned (outside of maybe 2008).
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I can’t think that way. I’m still finding it hard to believe they went to the NLCS. They were so very bad so recently. Several of their key position players have less than a season’s worth of track record. So, I’ll be very very pleased, happy and even surprised if their projections play out this way.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
And now they’ll say Peyton Manning won two Super Bowls.
He needs to retire for the sake of his teammates, namely the defense that actually won the Super Bowl. I don’t know if it’s possible for a player to be fellated more for basically not damaging his team’s chances of winning.
RynoQuote Reply
Eli, how much do you think your older brother helped the Broncos win the Super Bowl?
RynoQuote Reply
I guess I can’t embed images anymore…
http://i.imgur.com/Jgocr0b.gif
RynoQuote Reply
When Von Miller wasn’t setting up TDs with strip sacks, he was doing this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CaswdgbXEAAakZd.mp4
But no, let’s all talk to Peyton after the game.
RynoQuote Reply
“Being on the Broncos in 2015 makes Peyton Manning the best QB ever.”
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Certainly the best QB pitchman ever, at least.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, least.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Maybe the guy in the HOF for a few highlight catches in the Super Bowl shouldn’t comment on possibly the most physically dominant WR ever.
Swann: 336 R, 5462 YD, 51 TD in 116 games over 9 seasons
Johnson: 731 R, 11619 YD, 83 TD in 130 games over 9 seasons
Sit this one out, Lynn.
RynoQuote Reply
berselius,
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–gvhpYPgc–/c_fit,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/cn8b8gr5epqmxcwax5or.gif
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/yulieski-gurriel-lourdes-gurriel-defect-cuba.html
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Looks like no bonus pool strings attached for either, if the younger one waits to sign.
berseliusQuote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
Have to say I’m a bit surprised you’re so upset that the media would focus on one of the best players to ever play the game in what was likely his final game.
Von certainly deserves all the attention he can get, but the end of PM’s career is the end of an era.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I agree.
dmick89Quote Reply
Post about Posts mark 2.83c(iv) is incoming (dying laughing)
https://twitter.com/BleedCubTweets
berseliusQuote Reply
It is wise to manage expectations, but be sure you don’t manage them to the point where you miss the fun.
Case in point: I’m a lifelong Broncos fan. Did not think for one second all year that the team could win the SB as half a team, which is what they basically were. Spent the whole season mostly pissed off after every close win (which is to say every win), as I thought it was all nonsense, despite the strong record. Thought we’d be lucky to pull out a playoff win at home (and we kinda were). Thought we had no chance to beat Brady twice in the same season, and especially not with a below replacement level QB doing replacement level QB things. Did my best not to think about the SB for two weeks because I’d definitely seen this shitshow before: a Broncos SB annihilation. Went into the game talking about how this was all gravy, never expected to get this far, blah blah, fully at peace with another 40 pt blowout SB loss. Ws pleased to see the D come out roaring early, but after the Broncos’ offense squandered multiple opportunities to put the game away early, I felt in my bones that Cam was going to find a way on one drive late and steal the game away, and so once again tamped down my hopes. Didn’t realize they were actually going to win the fucking game until about 4 minutes to go, and you know what? I was immediately pissed all over again because I realized I hadn’t enjoyed a single moment of the first Broncos championship run in almost 20 years, and all because I had spent the whole season managing expectations, because I was soooo smart and thought I knew what a SB-winning team looked like.
So, be a pal to your soul and don’t do that.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
False.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Was hoping you guys would be making fun of Al and his “reboot.”
rvonQuote Reply
rvon,
I’m assuming I’m one of these people. Darn it.
dmick89Quote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
don’t tell me what to do
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
it me. inappropriate attitude haver.
aisle424Quote Reply
I can’t argue with you today.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
The bolded part is my favorite.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sort of OT, I know y’all don’t really have an active site anymore. However, I want to thank you guys for really shaping how I digest modern baseball. I started viewing Another Cubs Blog in 2008 as a 22 year old guy, and I adapted a lot of your philosophies and general thinking about the game of baseball. I now pride myself in being an objective baseball/sports consumer based on many of the views expressed here.
I never went to BCB, until today after some chatter on bleachernation.com, I stayed away because of your disdain. What I saw today was enough to know you fellas were spot on, and I will never go back there.
rvonQuote Reply
I don’t think even this is enough to get that pitchers analysis posted this month.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Yeah, tell.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, in announcing he will no longer be a dick, Al reserves the right to be a dick.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
rvon,
Hopefully it picks up when the season starts again. The future is shrouded in mystery. You never know.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
*makes weekly call bitching to telecoms*
berseliusQuote Reply
I don’t really see Al as being relevant anymore.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Smokestack Lightning,
I’m always upset about everything.
I get that angle of it, but he hasn’t even announced his retirement yet.
iono. The media just bothers me.
RynoQuote Reply
This. The media is front and center in everything. They never report anything of value, it’s all hearsay and drama filled.
Sports have become man’s soap opera.
MuckerQuote Reply
BTW, Andy Dalton needs your help finding his suitcases: http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/QB-Andy-Dalton-Needs-Help-Finding-Suitcases-368324131.html
RynoQuote Reply
I still think it’s kind of strange that one of my main takeaways from that awful Trueblood piece ended up being this. (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
Mucker,
Reporting facts is boring = no revenue.
They’re not qualified to analyze and their opinions suck.
RynoQuote Reply
I don’t know that he was ever relevant.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I didn’t know he existed until you guys kept making fun of him all the time when I started reading ACB.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yeah, I always kind of thought of him as someone who was basically the Cubs.com forum moderator.
dmick89Quote Reply
If that’s all it takes for Fowler, I hope the Cubs are still in on him.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Some questions should the Cubs sign Fowler:
Who plays center field more, he or JHey?
Who plays right more, he, JHey, or Jorge?
Who plays left more, he, Schwarb, or Jorge?
Who gets injured making these questions moot?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think Joe Maddon may faint when he considers the incredible number of options such a signing would represent. Also makes you wonder how all those egos will get juggled around.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
There’s only two veteran egos to deal with.
I’m happy for them to be every day starters with Schwarber the main guy in LF. Then Soler gets put in against some lefties, also on days that Schwarber catches, and on days off for the veterans. Soler is the most injury prone so it seems a no-brainer to make him the one who gets the most rest. I guess that makes Coghlan a fifth outfielder, although he and Baez could both play IF/OF as necessary. Or they can try to trade Cogs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I actually wouldn’t mind if they simply abandoned the Schwarber Catcher project, and just made him a full time OF.
MillertimeQuote Reply
I trade Soler for pitching. He’s more valuable in a trade than he is to the Cubs as part of some revolving outfield that inevitably takes playing time away from Heyward and/or Schwarber.
dmick89Quote Reply
For all the things that have gone right for the Cubs this offseason, I think the Soler non-trade is the one that didn’t. The price of pitching has been pretty unbelievable thanks to the combination of a pair of $200M men and Miller deal.
I feel like the deadline will be a better time to make that trade for pitching with one of these bubble teams, so holding onto Jorge until then, hopefully after he is both healthy and mashing, seems like a strategy. The risk that Soler is really, really good is greater to me than him being not so good, so I like keeping him, especially since the rumors seemed to point to the other GMs not being all that intrigued by Soler headlining a trade—meaning he wasn’t all that valuable from that perspective.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Millertime,
If he can be serviceable behind the plate, he is far more valuable. If he can’t be, fine, give it up. But the way they have been talking about him, they seem pretty optimistic, and that optimism doesn’t seem like talking him up to trade him.
ceruleanQuote Reply
myles,
My wife and I like Tequila. Pretty nice place, although the prices seem to be rising.
FrankSQuote Reply
Tequila is a restaurant on the Square in Crown Point.
FrankSQuote Reply
Yeah, you can’t control how other teams view Soler, though it’s perhaps a warning when it comes to what our expectations should be. That said, we really don’t have any idea how other teams valued him. I don’t believe discussions ever went very far, or at least we weren’t made aware of any that did. If I had to guess, I’d say the Cubs valued him much more highly than other teams did, but I think the Cubs value Soler tremendously. So it’s feasible that other teams valued him quite highly, but not as much as the Cubs.
I’m perfectly happy with Soler in RF, but I’d prefer Heyward in RF and Fowler in CF. Last thing I want to see is some injury for Heyward because he’s trying to cover so much ground in the outfield and he’s going to have since he’ll be flanked by Schwarber and Soler.
dmick89Quote Reply
Jenrry Mejia ———> 3rd failed PED test ————-> lifetime ban from MLB
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yet douchebags like Aroldis Chapman can still make tens of millions of dollars.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/BoysOfSpring/status/698260501608792064
Excellent: Heyward in Cubs gear at Sloan 10 days early
Bogus: Your comment is awaiting moderation
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Sorry about that. Heyward looks pretty good in Cubs blue.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
He is a tall, very fit, very strong looking man. Any color would probably look good on him, but that blue does work quite well for him.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I usually tend to shake out in agreement that a goodly number of professional athletes are douchebags, but if you’re referring to the assault allegations, I think it’s unfair to label him based on that, when nothing came of it.
I prefer to think of him in douchebaggy terms just because of all the Cubs he struck out.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
It probably is unfair, but I just assume that these guys do it when they’ve been accused of it.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing), I won’t argue that it’s probably the safer bet…
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply