The Quest to Exceed Mediocrity

The Dodgers overcame their bajillion injuries thanks to the talent they amassed with a very enviable and ludicrous payroll. We can’t even poo poo that because it’s kind of what we wish the Cubs would do, and while the Cubs aren’t the Pirates or the A’s, there is a gulf between their payroll and those at the top. Granted, a few of those teams up top may want to trim payroll, but that isn’t the only reason why they made the playoffs and the Cubs did not. It probably isn’t what Tom Ricketts wants, but the Cubs payroll has exceeded the $230MM threshold (that’s the entire 40-man roster considerations) the past two seasons, and they did it in 2019 too before the “biblical losses” and that whole pandemic thing that really sucked. So while the team probably isn’t ever going to spend at what the New York teams do for reasons, to say they won’t spend is inaccurate. The issue is that the money spent needs to be translated into MLB wins, so that’s what Jed Hoyer and friends have to figure out in their final year under contract (or at least Jed’s, I don’t know how long the other nerds are signed for).

This is going to be a lot of surface level math but we can ballpark what the Cubs can do and let the front office army of accounting interns figure out the actual numbers themselves, hopefully they do it without “accidentally” triggering the competitive balance tax, but rather they should do it intentionally. HOwever, that’s not in my control so I just hope whatever they do actually works. Cots contracts suggests that the Cubs are projected for about $189MM in guarantees without any more additions but taking into account the arbitration raises if everyone arbitration eligible was tendered. This is also now including Cody Bellinger, who opted in to the 2025 portion of his contract. The first CBT threshold in 2025 is $241MM, giving them about $51MM to play with before they trigger the tax again. Based on the way the contracts were set up, the guaranteed payroll will drop significantly over the next few years coinciding with the negotiations for the next collective bargaining agreement, which will help them get back under the CBT and reset if they intend to blow past this coming season and next to supplement what is a solid team.

I don’t think all the guys on the arbitration eligible list will be retained, and a couple have moved on to new teams from the last time MLBTR looked at this, so you can probably add a few extra million to the piggy bank the Cubs get to crack open for this offseason. As indicated last time, we probably find out who’s going to get tossed off the 40-man roster to make room for Rule 5 and the offseason additions by Monday. Then we find out who’s going to cost the Cubs a draft pick or two if they do sign them in free agency as that’s also when qualifying offers are extended. It will be a pretty busy time for front offices to figure out where they stand before Thanksgiving.

What I decided to do with my napkin math was to consider how the Cubs are set up now. It really depends on your confidence level, but there was enough to convince me that there is in fact talent on this team as currently constructed, and also that running it all back isn’t enough. I imagine that a lame duck front office isn’t going to just sit on their hands, but there’s evidence that this team should be better than their 83-win 2024. The Pythagorean record based on run differential suggested the Cubs were extremely unlucky, winning five fewer than their expected 88 wins. Looking at the team overall, it was a surprise (though not really since he was still an elite defender) to see Dansby Swanson racking up 4.3 wins above replacement, then an oft-hurt Nico Hoerner at 3.9, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both at 3.6, and even Pete Crow-Armstrong almost reached the mythical 3 WAR mark despite not having been with the team the whole year. Bellinger had a slumpy year by his standards (probably why he opted in) but still played well enough to hit above average and accumulate 2.2 WAR. The pitchers were also quite solid, although of course they could have used more help in the bullpen at many times throughout the season.

With my napkin math and the FanGraphs stats, assuming a replacement level team wins 48 games, the Cubs position player group had 22.5 WAR and the pitchers had 14.0 WAR, so that is about where they ended up at the 83-win mark (depending on how generously you decide to round), so I guess the 2024 squad did about what should have been expected given their WAR. The Cubs were middle of the pack in both offense (ranked by wRC+) and pitching (ranked by ERA-) so again that is about right for where they ended up record-wise. What we can hope for going forward is that, given the good group of 3+ WAR players, some guys who have track records suggesting they can be that and better, and eliminating a few guys who won’t be useful going forward, not to mention the eight top-100 prospects, many of whom are in Iowa now, that is enough to at least maintain that baseline of 83 wins if not exceed it. With Craig Counsell already in the front office’s ear about new coaches (and hopefully a new training staff that can help the players stay healthy), they just need to find a way to score seven more runs than 2024 to virtually guarantee a postseason berth, since the final wild cards had 89 wins in a strangely loaded National League field.

If it were me, I’d try to do the following:

• At least one top starter (maybe two?) to push Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon (if he’s not traded) down the line. I loved what Shota did and Steele was fine when he was healthy, but the rotation gets even better if they’re not the de facto aces.
• Upgrade catcher so Miguel Amaya doesn’t feel any pressure and there’s no urgency to rely on Moises Ballesteros to both hit and catch at the MLB level.
• At least one good bat regardless of handedness who can theoretically also stand at a defensive position and not embarrass himself.
• Probably two established relievers to bolster the bullpen now that they’re parting ways with former Cubs legend Drew Smyly.

Any one of those bullets by themselves might be able to snag an extra couple wins, but all of them together would potentially make up that seven-win gulf and then some to get the Cubs back to the playoffs in 2025. This is dependent on a lot of things, including whether Ricketts wants to significantly exceed the CBT to supplement a solid core, but with that core, about $60MM to spend, and a few teams already saying they’re going to retool or ratchet back spending, the Cubs might be in the driver seat for most deals not involving Juan Soto. They just have to make it happen.