The Scrap Heap – Winter Meetings

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius285 Comments

It was an ice cold stove for most of the offseason, but things finally picked up after Shohei Ohtani signed with the Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland on the eve of the Winter Meetings.

Cubs Moves

The Cubs picked up a pair of relief pitchers and a injury project that could see some time in the pen late this year:

Brandon Morrow

This was mostly covered in last week's post, but the Cubs signed Morrow to a 2/18 deal, with a $12m club/vesting option for a third year or $3m buyout. Morrow was a solid starter for the Blue Jays before injury prone-ness cut his starting career short. I thought he had started for the Brewers at some point but must be confusing him with someone else. He had shoulder surgery in 2015 that  finally put an end to his starting career, and he was lights out in his first full season as a reliever with LADoLA, posting a 2.06 ERA and 1.55 FIP. There's a bit of injury concern as he threw 60 innings last year in his first full season back from the surgery, but I think this is a pretty great deal for the Cubs. I get the vibe that they don't intend for him to close, which could indicate that they aren't done with bullpen shopping.

Steve Cishek

The Cubs also signed former Marlins closer Steve Cishek to a 2/13 deal. Cishek is a sidearmer who is a ground ball machine (career 49.8%) but also gets a decent amount of strikeouts (career 9.58 K/9). He's struggled with walks in one or two seasons but holds a career mark of 3.29 BB/9. He's also been remarkably consistent, posting a sub-3.00 ERA in five of his seven full seasons, and even his worst season was merely a 3.58. The Cubs would have loved that in the back half of last year.

Drew Smyly

This one is more of a project, as Smyly is coming back from TJS. He's always been a projection system favorite, and I would have guessed he was a Joe Maddon favorite too but their time with the Rays only overlapped for seven starts at the end of the 2014 season. He main claim to fame metrics wise is that he has one of the most over the top deliveries in the league, which changes how his fastball plays. It's also a big reason he was such an injury risk and probably why he ended up on the surgeon's table. He might be back as a RP later this season, and I'm sure the Cubs would love to have him in the rotation next year.

Cubs Rumors

  • Having missed out on Ohtani, it sounds like the Cubs are now in on Yu Darvish. There were reports out of Japan last week that suggested this, and the US reporters reported that the Cubs were at least kicking the tires a few days later.
  • If the Cubs don't get Darvish (or maybe even if they do), it sounds like Montgomery is pushing harder to be a more permanent part of the rotation. He's been incredibly valuable as a swingman for the Cubs, but it must be a kind of frustrating role for a player to be in for a long period of time. On top of that, his relatively distant future as a free agent would look a lot rosier if he had more starts under his belt. He could be a decent trade piece of the Cubs end up deciding he's superfluous.
  • The Cubs have also been loosely connected to trade talks for Danny Salazar and Danny Duffy. It could also just be that someone overheard some Cubs scounts talking about Dennys and got confused. You never know.
  • Wade Davis is still out there, and the Cubs would love to bring him back if his market isn't quite as robust as he thought. The Cubs also made an offer to Luke Gregerson before he signed with the Rockies.
  • Alex Cobb also remains unsigned, and may be a fallback if they don't sign Darvish. I can't think of any FA over the past few years that the Cubs have been more connected to, though.

Around the league

  • Obviously, the big splash of the week was the Yankees picking up Giancarlo Stanton for Starlin Castro and a few bags of peanuts. Well, more specifically Stanton and his contract. That team could set the record for the most home runs in a season. I still think the best part of this process was the Marlins working out a deal with the Cardinals for the trade first followed by Stanton saying NOPE to playing for the BFIB. At least he's not in the NL. Bummer for Starlin, whose chances of picking up a WS ring have been drastically reduced.
  • The Dodgers brought Matt Kemp back to LA as part of a salary dump to get under the luxury tax. Given how much of a legendary albatross Kemp's deal was a few years ago, it was quite the head scratcher to see a headline to the effect of "Dodgers acquire Kemp, get salary relief". Adrian Gonzalez got Wally Pipped last year, but it's still going to be strange to see him playing for another franchise.
  • Former Cubs closer Hector Rondon signed a two year deal with the Astros. It was probably the right move to let him go, but I've still got a bit of Randy Wells Disease on Rondon and can't shake the feeling that the Cubs might end up regretting it, despite what everything else might say about it being the right move. He could just need a change of scenery.
  • In addition to Ohtani, the Suburban Hellscape Angels also signed perennially underrated SS Zack Cozart. Mike Trout might finally have a decent team around him, which should be great for baseball.

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Comments

  1. Myles

    So if the cost for a year of Machado is Russell and Montgomery, I think I probably damn the consequences and do it. That said, I’m probably operating under the fallacy that it increases the chance that he’d re-sign here. If we could extend him even at market value, that’s a big get.

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  2. Perkins

    Russell’s upside is probably Machado’s floor, but Russell also has another four years of control, so I’d be very hesitant to make that trade. I think the likelihood is that the Cubs will get more overall value from Russell and Montgomery. There’s also the open question of whether Machado can stick at SS long term (assuming they could extend him), but I guess they could always move Bryant to the outfield.

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  3. Myles

    Just spitballing. A Machado/Darvish Cubs team is something like:

    LF Schwarber
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    SS Machado
    CF Happ
    C Contreras
    RF Heyward
    P Darvish
    2B Baez

    With a rotation of

    Darvish
    Quintana
    Hendricks
    Lester
    Chatwood

    That seems like it has to be among the very best teams in baseball. On the other hand,

    LF Schwarber
    3B Bryant
    1B Rizzo
    C Contreras
    CF Happ
    SS Russell
    RF Heyward
    2B Baez
    P Quintana

    With a rotation of
    Quintana
    Hendricks
    Lester
    Chatwood
    Montgomery

    seems like a solid contender, but not even the prohibitive favorite (though still likely the favorite) in the NL Central.

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  4. Myles

    Ryno:
    Myles,

    Make the trade and trade Machado at the deadline if he won’t re-sign.

    Certainly a line of thought. The White Sox have the same idea. Would love to trade half a year of Machado for Gleyber Torres back ((dying laughing))

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  5. dmick89

    I’d be okay with trading Russell (or Baez) for Machado. The Cubs have three middle infielders that should be on the field most of the time so trading one of them for a piece like Machado makes a lot of sense. I’d hate to lose Montgomery. He’s been valuable in his role with this team, but if that’s the other piece that gets Machado then I’m good with it. The Cubs still have three middle infielders if they get Machado, but they have options at the deadline to improve other spots on the team.

    I’d definitely make that deal even though it likely favors the O’s in the long run.

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  6. dmick89

    Myles: seems like a solid contender, but not even the prohibitive favorite (though still likely the favorite) in the NL Central.

    Depends on what the Cardinals do. If they acquire Donaldson or Machado, the Cardinals probably become the favorites in that scenario. If the Cubs get Darvish there is almost nothing the Cardinals can do at this point that would see them entering the season as the favorites to win the Central.

    I think I’d still prefer the Cubs sign Darvish and Cain and call it an offseason.

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  7. Smokestack Lightning

    According to BN and their post according to Peter Gammons, Ohtani wanted Cubs, but because of his already balky UCL, was concerned about making throws from the OF.

    So, either the Cubs were screwed yet again because the NL thinks it’s cute to not have the DH, or the Cubs dodged a bullet because Ohtani is already kinda hurt in the pitching part of his body. Though, I guess at the low, low price, who cares, right?

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  8. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    As it stands right now, the Cubs rotation isn’t all that good either and their bullpen is still a question mark. The Cubs managed to win the division last year with pitching that didn’t exactly set the world on fire.

    Both teams were a little above average last year, but if what I’m reading is right about what the Cardinals would have to part with to get either Donaldson or Machado, they would be dealing from the most talented tier of pitching they have after Car Mart. Hard to see how they vault past the Cubs in that scenario.

    But it’s all likely moot anyway. Cards have apparently balked at the asking price for Machado, and the Jays seem very reluctant to deal Donaldson.

    And it would be extra mooty if the Cubs land Darvish.

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  9. dmick89

    I don’t understand how 12.3% of the MLBTR readers chose this in a poll about whether or not the Cubs should sign Yu Darvish.

    No, the Cubs should not use resources on a top starter.

    I can understand wanting to go after a different top starters. A solid argument could probably be made that the Cubs should go after Jake Arrieta and I could even imagine a convincing argument that the Cubs should go after Chris Archer (a difficult argument to make considering the cost). I could even definitely understand if the Cubs rotation was really good, but I don’t see how 12.3% think the Cubs should not go after a top starter at all. Are those people Cardinals fans or something? That’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

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  10. dmick89

    Smokestack Lightning: Both teams were a little above average last year

    Right and I should probably admit that I haven’t paid enough attention to the Cardinals offseason and their needs to make the statement I did. I just think the difference between the two teams is relatively small at this point. That can change in a hurry if the Cubs sign Darvish, but right now the Cubs don’t look to be better than an 85 win team on paper. That would be depressing as hell considering the age of some of the former top prospects that are with the team and their lack of anything resembling talent in their minor league organization at the moment.

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  11. uncle dave

    EnricoPallazzo,

    I can tell you from personal experience that fat does not make you stronger, so I’m not concerned. I’m assuming that someone with the access to elite training staff and facilities that Schwarber has wouldn’t be relying on starvation to drop weight. It’s more of a transformative thing for athletes, I think.

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  12. EnricoPallazzo

    uncle dave,

    yeah i kind of figured that “weight loss = loss in power” was just a bullshit narrative that makes for an easy column/blog post but has never really been verified. also, myles has him projected for a .500 OBP so we should be good either way.

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  13. Ryno

    Mike Jurecki @mikejurecki
    Jeff Fisher wants to get back into the NFL next year, could be eyeing three jobs if they open: Cleveland, Indy and Chicago. Fisher buyout from the Rams was $16M.

    CLE would LOVE 7-9…

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  14. JKV

    uncle dave,

    Sure fat doesn’t make you stronger. But in terms of leverage and power, weight certainly matters. If Schwarber stayed at the same weight and got leaner with added muscle weight, sure. But if he’s losing weight while not adding muscle mass, you can assume some loss in power. There’s a reason why football lineman are so large. Weight transfer adds power even in a baseball swing.

    All that said, if being leaner allows Schwarber to have quicker muscle twitch and leads to a higher average, he could have an equal or higher SLG despite a drop in ISO.

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  15. Ryno

    JKV,

    If Schwarber’s strength remains the same and fat decreases, I would think he would be more explosive (which would offset the loss of mass in his swing).

    You mentioned offensive lineman, but they’re not as fat as they used to be. Tyron Smith is a prime example.

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  16. Wenningtons Gorilla Cock

    dmick89:
    I don’t understand how 12.3% of the MLBTR readers chose this in a poll about whether or not the Cubs should sign Yu Darvish.

    I can understand wanting to go after a different top starters. A solid argument could probably be made that the Cubs should go after Jake Arrieta and I could even imagine a convincing argument that the Cubs should go after Chris Archer (a difficult argument to make considering the cost). I could even definitely understand if the Cubs rotation was really good, but I don’t see how 12.3% think the Cubs should not go after a top starter at all. Are those people Cardinals fans or something? That’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

    They wanted a tippy-top starter

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  17. Rice Cube

    The dog in a fire gif, but with Derek Jeter. That town hall meeting was probably not the best idea. Still, good for him for actually trying.

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  18. JonKneeV

    Rice Cube:
    So Zach Britton is broken (Achilles) and O’s might not trade Machado after all. That franchise sure has issues.

    At least they have Chris Davis for another 5 years…

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  19. dmick89

    I think it’s kind of funny that for weeks people have been pissed off at the new Marlins owners and when they say the commissioner was aware of the fire sale prior to purchase they all believe them, few or no questions asked. I think it’s likely the commissioner did know, but I just think it’s funny everyone is so quick to believe Marlins owners now.

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  20. Ryno

    To BCB community
    It’s been real, it’s been fun, but it hasn’t been real fun. I’m not into kowtowing to hypocrites. so you can keep your narcissistic, egotistical, and self righteous “community” to your alike minded troll selves.
    Have fun being stupid, it is the thing the community does best
    Posted by masher65 on Dec 20, 2017 | 12:48 PM

    Meet one [idiot], you met an [idiot].
    Meet a whole [forum] of [idiots], maybe they’re not the problem.
    Posted by DPWestley on Dec 20, 2017 | 12:57 PM

    That’s not how the saying goes. Because if everyone is an idiot, then they are indeed the problem.

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  21. Ryno

    My daily opinion none of you will care about:

    I’m excited about what Jimmy Garoppolo has shown in three starts with the 49ers, but the hype around him is getting out of control. It will be interesting how he fares against that insane JAX defense this weekend.

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  22. SK

    Ryno,

    Supposedly O’s are weighing an offer of Russell, Almora and Montgomery. I don’t know if this is new because I’m not good at hot stove. But it implied Cubs may be only team offering them anything and they will decide today or something?

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  23. Ryno

    Bob Nightengale @BNightengale
    The Baltimore #Orioles just said that unless someone drastically changes their offer, third baseman Manny Machado is staying put for now

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  24. dmick89

    Ryno,

    I’m sure Cubs fans were freaking out, but I can make some strong arguments that it’s not nearly enough and I can also make a few arguments that it’s too much. I’d hate to give up four years of Addison Russell for a year of Machado. Russell is never going to be the elite player that some thought he could be and if or when his defense begins to decline it will coincide with increases in salary making him much less valuable since he can’t really hit. Still, he’s quite valuable now and should be for the next couple years at least. On the other hand, if I was Baltimore I’d want a lot more than Russell in return and that a lot more is not Almora and Montgomery who are mostly just throw in pieces.

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  25. dmick89

    If you told me that the Cubs were going to make that deal and that they’d sign Darvish and Cain, I’d be fine with it because I’d assume the Cubs would make a run at signing Machado long-term. Even if they didn’t get it done, they’d get a draft pick.

    The problem is that I really doubt the Cubs sign either of Darvish or Cain even though they make too much sense not to.

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  26. Ryno

    dmick89,

    I think the key is value to the team. Russell, Montgomery and Almora have more value to CHC than they do to BAL because they’re cheap and above average right now. Machado has more potential value to BAL right now than he does to CHC because his one year could be turned into a dozen years of talented young players.

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  27. dmick89

    Myles,

    I was convinced they would when the season ended because it made too much sense. I’m not convinced they are going to offer the most money at this point and I see no reason to believe that will be enough to land him. I think they end up signing Cobb for too much money.

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  28. Ryno

    dmick89,

    Isn’t the line of reasoning something along the lines of “If we have to give up $20million per year and a draft pick for Cobb, we might as well give Darvish $26million?”

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  29. Perkins

    Edwin:
    I wonder what it takes to work at Barstool.I think one of my co-workers reads their stuff.

    I assume a lobotomy and a high level of misogyny are a start.

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  30. Ryno

    Carl @barstoolcarl
    16 hours ago
    I’d like to formally apologize to @faridyu for FALSELY REPORTING that he joined the best organization in professional sports. SORRY YU. #shooters #shoot Also, I’m a faget. #fagets #faget

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  31. Ryno

    Josh Allen:

    Kiper’s draft ranking: No. 3 QB and No. 11 overall prospect. From Kiper’s Big Board: “Allen is super raw, but he can really sling it. … I think Allen’s numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players.”

    “Coaches are going to see this guy and imagine everything he can be, and they’re going to be all over their front offices to take him. He’s just really raw, so you have to make sure he goes to a place where the coaching is solid and knows what he needs. The talent is all there.” — AFC front-office official.

    Lamar Jackson:

    McShay’s draft ranking: No. 7 QB and No. 88 overall prospect. From McShay’s preseason scouting report: “Jackson needs to continue to improve his accuracy as a passer. That’s the bottom line. Right now, he’s a phenomenal college quarterback mostly due to his running skills and athleticism.”

    “The physical abilities are off the charts. Huge arm, incredible speed. Just an athlete, plain and simple. You’d like to see more consistent accuracy from the pocket, but that can be cleaned up with some work on his mechanics. The big concern is whether he can hold up if he does as much running at the next level.” — AFC front-office official.

    This is what’s wrong with the NFL. Josh Allen’s upside is high, but he sucks. Lamar Jackson’s upside is high, but he’s shown the ability to be an NFL QB and he’s been productive.

    Allen’s being talked about as a possible first-round pick. Jackson’s being talked about as a future wide receiver.

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  32. Ryno

    Jim Bowden???????? @JimBowdenGM
    7m
    #Yankees #Pirates close to deal that will send Gerrit Cole to the Yankees….Gleyber Torres will NOT be part of the trade according to a #Pirates source

    They drafted Cole in the first round out of high school.

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  33. Berselius is too lazy to login

    Ryno:
    Josh Allen:

    Lamar Jackson:

    This is what’s wrong with the NFL. Josh Allen’s upside is high, but he sucks. Lamar Jackson’s upside is high, but he’s shown the ability to be an NFL QB and he’s been productive.

    Allen’s being talked about as a possible first-round pick. Jackson’s being talked about as a future wide receiver.

    I can’t wait until Allen is the new quarterback of the Cleveland Browns.

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  34. dmick89

    So apparently the Cubs won’t get into a bidding war for a top starter so why even bother meeting with one? On the off chance no one else is interested, we’re definitely interested. Hopefully Darvish and Arrieta go to the AL.

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  35. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89:
    So apparently the Cubs won’t get into a bidding war for a top starter so why even bother meeting with one? On the off chance no one else is interested, we’re definitely interested. Hopefully Darvish and Arrieta go to the AL.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I would think it’s not in a team’s best interest to say it’s looking to get into a bidding war.

    There’s also the high probability that the Cubs haven’t said anything meaningful about what they are or aren’t willing to do, and this is all conjecture from the rumor mill.

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  36. Ryno

    Michaela Vernava @MichaelaNESN
    Belichick on James Harrison being able to provide Steelers intel: “We’re playing the Jets this week.”
    Belichick on locking up 1 seed: “I haven’t mentioned it, no.”
    Belichick on bringing in Harrison: “It’s always good to meet someone.”

    It’s always good to meet someone.

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  37. Ryno

    berselius,

    I guess. Looking like it’ll drop us from the No. 2 pick to probably the No. 10 pick, though…

    Other than that, though, it’s been amazing. I expect some JG regression as DCs pick up on his tendencies, but he’s also doing well with one of the least talented offensive rosters in the NFL. In all seriousness, I think CLE has a better offense unit than SF.

    With a good off-season, SF could compete for the playoffs next year. Crazy.

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  38. Edwin

    This year officially sucks. In Feb 2017 my mom passed away from cancer. She was 61. And now, just to really bookend things, I’m going to get a call around noon letting me know my dog, who’s just 5 years old, is not getting better and will have to be put down. It’s been a difficult year for my wife and I for a number of reasons, and my dog was one of the few bright spots helping us get through things. And now he’s basically being ripped from our lives.

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  39. dmick89

    Edwin,

    That sucks. I’m sorry to hear about that. Losing a dog is difficult and obviously losing a parent is even worse. Sounds like it’s been a shitty year so hopefully 2018 will be better. Any idea what’s wrong with your dog?

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  40. Edwin

    dmick89,

    Something with his Kidneys. We watch him pretty close, so I can’t believe he got into anything toxic, so I’m assuming it was just some type of kidney disease. He was a rescure dog, we got him when he was about 2-3, around Feb 2016. We went up to my Dad’s for an early Christmas on the 22nd, and he wasn’t eating much, but otherwise he seemed ok. He got sick on the 24th, but it looked like just an upset stomach. He ate a little chicken and rice on the 25th, and seemed pretty much like himself, if only a little tired. Then on the 26th he just kept getting sick all day, and wouldn’t eat anything. We took him in to the Vet on the 27th, and that’s when we found out that his kidney’s and pancreas were way off. He’s been at the Vet on an IV since the 27th, and he’s somewhat stabalized, but he’s just not getting better, and hasn’t regained his appetite. The vet is going to call with an update at noon, but it’s pretty bleak.

    It just feels so sudden and unexpected. He’s still such a young dog, and he’s been such an integral part of our family, I can’t even imagine him not being around.

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  41. dmick89

    Edwin,

    If it helps any, I had a dog that got really sick and she lost her appetite completely and after she spent a few days on the IV she was all better. They never figured out what was wrong and I never had a problem like that again. She was much younger (less than 6 months old), but sometimes they do get better out of nowhere. Hopefully that happens with your dog.

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  42. Edwin

    Ryno,

    Thanks. It’s just been a nightmare these past few days. When I took him in, I was expecting it to just be stomach ache, or at least something treatable.

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  43. Perkins

    Edwin,

    That really sucks, Edwin. We lost one of our cats last year, and it was really sudden. She lost her appetite and then started hiding under our bed, and after a bunch of tests at the vet, they said she had late stage pancreatic cancer. Within a week and a half, she went from mostly normal to having to be put down.

    Losing a pet really sucks. They’re part of the family.

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  44. Edwin

    Rockies are paying quite a bit for their bullpen. $106M over the next 3 seasons for Davis, Shaw, and McGee. Seems like a poor allocation of resources.

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  45. Edwin

    Just got the call from the vet. He’s looking better, but still not eating, and his kidney values are still shot. So now the options are either give him another day on the IV and see if things get better, have him put down tonight, or take him home for the night and have him put down tomorrow. Damn it.

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  46. cerulean

    Edwin,

    I have experienced a number of deaths and near deaths—the suddenly sick while young for no apparent reason is among the worst. I hope your dog recovers. I was going to say other things, but words can go fuck themselves right now.

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  47. Myles

    So I definitely am NOT saying that there’s collusion among the 30 teams in baseball right now. I am NOT saying that. I’m just saying that you wouldn’t be crazy to start wondering if there is something going on. We are very far past the point where there should be movement in free agency.

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  48. Ryno

    Sports Illustrated’s Peter King was told by a veteran NFL scout that the Browns are unlikely to pass on Wyoming QB Josh Allen with the first overall pick.
    — rotoworld

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  49. dmick89

    Myles,

    It’s unusual, but I’m not sure we’re at that point yet. If we’re still sitting here in about the same position in a couple weeks then I think it’s time to ask that question.

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  50. Ryno

    Bob Condotta @bcondotta
    “Cliff and Kam are going to have a hard time playing football again,” Carroll says of Avril and Chancellor, but indicates it will be their decision.

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  51. Myles

    Apparently Eric Hosmer and the Cardinals are in discussions. I would love for the Cardinals to put a huge contract for an overrated first baseman around their necks.

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  52. Ryno

    Myles,

    I mean, why not? They won their first Super Bowl behind a QB and secondary in the middle of their rookie deals.

    Sports are cruel, though. The 49ers went from arguably the most talented roster in the league in 2013 to arguably the least talented roster two years later.

    Incidentally, I thought the Cubs would win at least 1-2 World Series in the mid-00s.

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  53. Ryno

    Joe Arrigo @joearrigo
    Gruden’s QB coach (Gannon), DC (Guenther) & ST coordinator (Bisaccia) are now in place. Hearing Morton is likely to join staff as OC.

    Greg Olsen, who is still coaching QB’s for the Rams in the playoffs, could have a role on the staff in an undisclosed offensive role

    OAK’s about to get a LOT better, maddog.

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  54. dmick89

    EnricoPallazzo,

    I’m fine with it. Shorter term deal makes sense for them even if you pay more per year to get it done. Arrieta won’t take it, but it’s not a bad idea. What sucks is that this likely means the best we can hope for is an overpaid Alex Cobb.

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  55. Ryno

    dmick89,

    Yeah, the NFL is pretty wack. The Tuck Rule was about as bad as the one that says this isn’t a catch:

    But I’d look at it this way: A lot of coveted NFL coordinators have agreed to join Gruden’s staff. They wouldn’t have done that if this deal weren’t finalized.

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  56. Ryno

    Due to some lifestyle changes, I will no longer be scouting potential NFL draft picks before the event. But as a service to this site, I’ll personally scout any players requested by an obstructedview poster. Before or after the draft. Just let me know…

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  57. Edwin

    Ryno:
    Due to some lifestyle changes, I will no longer be scouting potential NFL draft picks before the event. But as a service to this site, I’ll personally scout any players requested by an obstructedview poster. Before or after the draft. Just let me know…

    Mitchell Trubisky.

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  58. Edwin

    I hope the Cubs go ahead and sign Darvish so I can stop worrying about the rest of the offseason. Just sign Darvish, and maybe an OF to platoon with Almora, and I’m happy.

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  59. Ryno

    Edwin,

    ‘twould be an invalid evaluation since he’s graduated to pro QB/assistant GM. I will say that Kyle Shanahan rated him as the best QB in last year’s draft.

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  60. dmick89

    Edwin:
    I hope the Cubs go ahead and sign Darvish so I can stop worrying about the rest of the offseason.Just sign Darvish, and maybe an OF to platoon with Almora, and I’m happy.

    I can’t figure out why the Cubs aren’t more interested in Lorenzo Cain. This offseason was really easy. Sign some decent relievers, sign Cain and sign Darvish.

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  61. Ryno

    Edwin,

    There’s no elite guy, but there are a bunch of intriguing names.

    SMU’s Courtland Sutton may be the top guy. He, Oklahoma State’s Marcell Ateman and FSU’s Auden Tate are the catch-point guys.

    Alabama’s Calvin Ridley, Memphis’ Anthony Miller and Clemson’s Deon Cain all kind of fall into the non-physically imposing X category. Colorado State’s Michael Gallup might be my favorite of this group.

    OkSU’s James Washington, Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk and Washington’s Dante Pettis are tops in the Z/return category that I think stands out this year.

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  62. JKV

    Myles,

    I’ve looked at multiple sources for ILB rankings and none have Ja’Whaun Bentley ranked at all. Doesn’t mean he won’t get drafted but middle rounds would likely be a stretch.

    But I agree with you, as a Purdue fan, that he’s one of maybe a handful of players on the Purdue roster that could make an NFL roster. He’s got great leadership qualities. Probably needs to go to a defense that uses only 3 down linemen so his run defense strengths can be used to eat up blockers and stuff the run at the 2nd level. He’s been opportunistic as well in his 4 years. I think what will hamper him in the draft process is that he’s not an extremely athletic linebacker prospect, doesn’t do great in man coverage, and has a few injury concerns. We’ll see.

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  63. JKV

    dmick89,

    Nothing of note from reporters, but according to BN, Bruce Levine went on The Score and said something to the effect that he’d be surprised if the Cubs weren’t involved in Lo Cain or a Yellich trade for CF insurance if the Cubs aren’t excited about Almora.

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  64. Ryno

    JKV,

    3 DL is a rare look these days as even the teams thought of as “3-4 teams” are really just 4-3 Under teams. The majority of snaps these days are taken in nickel anyway.

    But skills like what you described have value and I could see someone like that with Bentley’s measurables having an Ahmad Brooks-like career path from ILB to SAM LB in the NFL.

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  65. dmick89

    JKV,

    Cain makes way more sense since he’s a free agent. Almora as an everyday player kind of sucks. His defense isn’t nearly as good as advertised. He’s terrible against righties, but he can hit lefties or at least he has so far. If the Cubs enter the season with Almora as an everyday player the offseason will have not been very good.

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  66. Ryno

    CK @ckparrot
    It’s official. As of 2017 the “Front Seven” in the NFL is now a “Front Six”. On average, NFL defenses marched out only 6.04 players per snap that played DL or LB in college. The rest are DBs, or hybrid LB/S players that played safety, “spur”, or “rover” type positions in college.

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  67. Ryno

    Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL
    As first reported by @joearrigo the Raiders staff will be

    HC: Jon Gruden
    OC: Greg Olson
    DC: Paul Guenther
    ST: Rick Bisaccia

    There you go, Maddog.

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  68. Ryno

    Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
    Sources: The #Raiders seek a long-term commitment from new coach Jon Gruden and they are preparing a 10-year contract for Gruden. The expectation is that it eclipses $100M.

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  69. Perkins

    Not being a fan of college football (my alma mater is DIII and beyond awful, even there), I was unaware that Dabo Swinney is a person. Upon learning of this, my wife looked him up on Wikipedia. The ensuing conversation:

    Wife: “His name is William Christopher ‘Dabo’ Swinney.”
    Me: “He has two normal names and goes by ‘Dabo’? That may be the most southern thing ever. At least he could go by ‘Bill’ or ‘Chris.'”
    Wife: “Apparently it’s from when he was a kid and his brother tried to refer to him as ‘dat boi,’ but couldn’t pronounce it, so it became ‘Dabo.'”
    Me: “Okay, THAT may be the most southern thing ever.”

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  70. Edwin

    If deals don’t start happening it’s going to start getting pretty crazy. At some point I assume teams want to know what their finalized budget is going to start looking like, and players will want to know where they’ll be reporting for Spring Training.

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  71. Ryno

    Ian Rapoport @RapSheet
    New #Bears coach Matt Nagy considered QB Mitchell Trubisky to be intriguing during the draft process. He definitely was a fan when Trubisky visited the #Chiefs. Now, the two will be linked forever.

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  72. Ryno

    Wanted to throw out a scenario that keeps popping into my head:

    If you’re SF, would you be tempted to trade JimmyGQ to CLE for the first and fourth overall picks in this draft? I’m like 95% sure I wouldn’t do it, but the thought of signing Kirk Cousins and having the first, fourth and ninth overall picks is really intriguing.

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  73. Berselius is too lazy to login

    Edwin:
    I saw the new Star Wars over the weekend.It was ok.

    Okay is exactly how I would describe it.

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  74. Ryno

    Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
    Sources: The Houston Astros have engaged with the Pittsburgh Pirates on trade talks for starter Gerrit Cole. One name bandied about as a return: outfielder Derek Fisher. For a trade to happen, Pirates almost certainly would need Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley as a centerpiece.

    That doesn’t make sense.

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  75. cerulean

    Edwin,

    I think it suffers from the same thing the theatrical release of LotR The Two Towers did—there was just too much going on and not enough space for the story to breathe. There are plot and physics headscratchers like every Star Wars movie, but the rapid pace of storytelling and introduction of even more characters in this ensemble cast left little time to feel like Star Wars. It was fine. The critical praise is too effusive and the audience panning is overrun by trolls of the white male variety. I give it 12 out of 17 stars.

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  76. Perkins

    Edwin,

    Overall I enjoyed it, though it had faults. It seemed like the dominant unifying thread was challenging assumptions and expectations. I liked that Kylo Ren didn’t just magically turn good after he and Rey teamed up against a common enemy; I loved that Luke was angry and disillusioned and cognizant of the Jedi’s flaws; and the broom kid at the end was pretty cool, and seemed like Rian Johnson was directly addressing the audience with respect to our present geopolitical situation.

    That said, the chase plot had a few issues both of the physics and narrative variety, and the diversion to Canto Bight was largely pointless and unnecessary. But in the vein of shattering expectations, I also liked that Benicio del Toro’s character was exactly who he said he was, and not another Han Solo “criminal with a heart of gold.” Holdo was also pretty annoying as a character, and a pretty awful commander, though I kind of appreciated Poe’s arc more on second viewing.

    Given that it pissed off a lot of the MAGA troll crowd, I’m also inclined to give it 12 out of 17 stars.

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  77. Edwin

    cerulean,

    The plotting just didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. Ended up feeling a bit redundant at times. Especially Benicio del Toro’s character. Or Purple Hair Lady.

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  78. Edwin

    Perkins: diversion to Canto Bight was largely pointless and unnecessary

    Pretty much this.

    Also, why have bombers in space? It doesn’t make any sense. They can’t drop any bombs because there is no gravity. And why have the bombers clustered together where if one blows up it causes a chain reaction that takes out almost all the rest? And if one bomber can basically take out one of those mega star destroying things, why even risk that many bombers in the first place? Why the fuck are the bombers so slow? Why not just turn the bombs into missles or some type of projectile so you’re not putting yourself at risk? There is enough technology to create a death star that can blow up a fucking planet, but they don’t have the technology to launch bombs? And if a cruiser ship can just hyper jumpr through a star destroyer and wreck it’s shit, why not just build cruisers, pilot them with droids (droid lives don’t matter) and kamikaze those cruisers into the enemy ships?

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  79. Perkins

    Edwin,

    All of this. The bomber thing I chalked up to the Resistance’s being poor and having outdated equipment (even the new X-Wings they use are apparently old as of that time; the Republic was using newer ones), but creating a thing that would move that slowly AND have piss poor shields and armor, despite being intended to loiter directly over a target and drop a massive payload of explosives is laughably poor design, even assuming the things were new and advanced at one point. Y-Wings were harder to kill.

    And if ramming a ship while entering hyperspace was always a possibility, they had three frigates that could have been effective suicide weapons before they had to abandon their only capital ship to do the same. And while I get that Poe had to learn a lot about command, Holdo’s actively refusing to share operational details with her officers while the only apparent plan is “keep flying until we’re all dead” is not a great technique.

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  80. Berselius is too lazy to log in

    Perkins:
    Edwin, .

    And if ramming a ship while entering hyperspace was always a possibility, they had three frigates that could have been effective suicide weapons before they had to abandon their only capital ship to do the same. And while I getthat Poe had to learn a lot about command, Holdo’s actively refusing to share operational details with her officers while the only apparent plan is “keep flying until we’re all dead” is not a great technique.

    These might have been my two biggest issues with the movie, aside from the more general complaint that it was kind of a narrative mess. It needed to either be 45 minutes shorter or 45 minutes longer and split into two movies.

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  81. uncle dave

    Edwin,
    Perkins,

    I have no military expertise whatsoever, but I think that we can all agree on one thing: “Kelly’s Heroes” sets the bar for realism in its depiction of combat.

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  82. Myles

    dmick89:
    Myles,

    It’s unusual, but I’m not sure we’re at that point yet. If we’re still sitting here in about the same position in a couple weeks then I think it’s time to ask that question.

    8 days later…finally the damn broke, and Rene Rivera signed elsewhere.

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  83. JKV

    I can’t believe Yu Darvish hasn’t signed yet. He had all those meetings, what, a full month ago? 8/10 of the top free agents on MLBTR still haven’t signed. Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month…

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  84. Ryno

    Zach Braziller @NYPost_Brazille
    Landon Collins on Bill Belichick: “The way he runs his organization, I’ve been through that process. I don’t like it. It’s too strict. …. He’s a great winner, he’s a great coach. I don’t know if [his style] is what the organization really wants.” nypost.com/2018/01/08/lan… #giants

    Heard the same about Harbaugh after he left SF.

    Coaches can’t all be championship-winning teddy bears like Nick Saban, Bill Parcells or Jimmy Johnson…

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  85. uncle dave

    JKV,

    I have a couple of competing theories on this whole mess. I think that there is some reaction to changes in the tax code that make profits more attractive relative to tax-deductible losses, which in turn is causing owners to go cold on wage spending. (Of specific note to baseball teams, they’ve long used a provision in the tax code to accelerate tax deductions on long-term contracts. Now that deductions are far less valuable, they have less incentive to make those deductions or to offer long-term deals.) So we’re all waiting for them to spend those Disney bucks, but they’re not going to do it, especially in the context of the tax code hopefully getting less friendly to corporations in 2021.

    I think that’s a minor thing, though. I’ll eat my shoe if the collusion we’re seeing now isn’t a precursor to a hard salary cap in 2021, and I’ll eat my other shoe if we don’t see spending continue to be suppressed until the new CBA is put in place and the salary baseline for the cap is established. Salary floors are typically set as a percentage of revenues, so suppressing wages during a revenue spike like we’re seeing now would be really beneficial to the owners.

    The labor climate when they’re negotiating the CBA in 2020 is likely to be as bad as we’ve ever seen it, and hopefully the low point for a while in terms of labor rights. I’m willing to wager they’re betting it all on getting their cap through with a relatively low salary floor, knowing that their window for unfettered screwage of the players may be ready to at least somewhat close.

    I hope the players push back, and I hope that the Cubs are willing to push all of their chips to the center for ’18 and ’19, because the winter of 2020 may be a very long one.

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  86. Ryno

    Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL
    Mark Helfrich as “strong possibility for #Bears OC.”

    Matt Nagy really going creative with this coaching staff.

    Whoa.

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  87. sharpchicity

    Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs. Besides Jeff Sullivan, I don’t know that i like reading anybody else over there. I’ve started to trend towards the big picture articles rather than the “Player X is throwing more curveballs,” and with that missing, I don’t know where i’ll be getting baseball news from. I’ll be interested to see who takes over the “Top 10/50” lists

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  88. SK

    uncle dave:
    JKV,

    I have a couple of competing theories on this whole mess.I think that there is some reaction to changes in the tax code that make profits more attractive relative to tax-deductible losses, which in turn is causing owners to go cold on wage spending.(Of specific note to baseball teams, they’ve long used a provision in the tax code to accelerate tax deductions on long-term contracts.Now that deductions are far less valuable, they have less incentive to make those deductions or to offer long-term deals.)So we’re all waiting for them to spend those Disney bucks, but they’re not going to do it, especially in the context of the tax code hopefully getting less friendly to corporations in 2021.

    I think that’s a minor thing, though.I’ll eat my shoe if the collusion we’re seeing now isn’t a precursor to a hard salary cap in 2021, and I’ll eat my other shoe if we don’t see spending continue to be suppressed until the new CBA is put in place and the salary baseline for the cap is established.Salary floors are typically set as a percentage of revenues, so suppressing wages during a revenue spike like we’re seeing now would be really beneficial to the owners.

    The labor climate when they’re negotiating the CBA in 2020 is likely to be as bad as we’ve ever seen it, and hopefully the low point for a while in terms of labor rights.I’m willing to wager they’re betting it all on getting their cap through with a relatively low salary floor, knowing that their window for unfettered screwage of the players may be ready to at least somewhat close.

    I hope the players push back, and I hope that the Cubs are willing to push all of their chips to the center for ’18 and ’19,because the winter of 2020 may be a very long one.

    ya think?

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  89. Berselius is too lazy to login

    I wish the Packers had scooped up Fangio, but I am not going to complain about Pettine. Just about anyone is a big upgrade over Capers.

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  90. Perkins

    dmick89,

    I think it’s equally possible that the combination of traditionally big spenders (LAD and NYY) trying to get under the luxury tax limit, mostly non-competitive divisions (NL Central and AL East are the only two without a huge separation between the front-runner and the rest), a much more robust free agent class in the 2018-19 offseason, and relative parity in the way teams gather and analyze performance data have left teams less willing to spend as freely this offseason.

    I certainly wouldn’t rule out collusion, but there are rational explanations that don’t include it.

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  91. Berselius

    Perkins:
    dmick89,

    I think it’s equally possible that the combination of traditionally big spenders (LAD and NYY) trying to get under the luxury tax limit, mostly non-competitive divisions (NL Central and AL East are the only two without a huge separation between the front-runner and the rest), a much more robust free agent class in the 2018-19 offseason, and relative parity in the way teams gather and analyze performance data have left teams less willing to spend as freely this offseason.

    Icertainly wouldn’t rule out collusion, but there are rational explanations that don’t include it.

    I’m still on the hunt for a gif of my most used P&R quote – April saying “it could be more than one thing” after Ron tells her about his hernia.

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  92. GW

    Perkins,

    My theories:

    1. The revised aging curve. In 2014, Jeff Z at fangraphs showed that players now basically peak as soon as they enter the league. Since then, this theory has been bolstered by young teams absolutely dominating.

    2. Late free-agent deals. A year or two ago, someone (drawing a blank on who) found that deals signed late in the free agency (after January, I believe) were massively more favorable to teams than those that came earlier in the period.

    I think there is a lot of wrongness baked-in to the interpretations of those theories. It seems pretty far-fetched to assume that the actual aging curve changed, as opposed to us just happening upon a period in which the talent entering the league is better than the talent that is currently playing. In which case, we shouldn’t expect it to continue. And waiting on free agent deals isn’t likely to work if everyone is doing it. But that doesn’t mean that teams aren’t operating using these models.

    Also, the players keep getting owned in CBA negotiations, as has already been mentioned.

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  93. Perkins

    GW,

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the aging curve had changed, at least relative to 10 years ago or so. I can’t find it at the moment, but I remember reading that the mean (or possibly median) age of MLB players has skewed younger since the more rigorous PED testing and harsher penalties for violations. At the least, (position) players seem to hit a performance cliff sooner than they used to.

    Taken with that, I can see why teams would be less willing to pay a big contract for a couple of years of good performance followed by a long decline phase. There may also be a critical mass of contracts over the last decade showing that the value isn’t there; the last few massive pitcher contracts have also had mixed returns – Scherzer and Lester look pretty good, but the jury’s still out on Greinke and Price looks like a disaster.

    There’s definitely a critical mass of young talent across the league, so as they age, it’s reasonable to think some of the aging curve stuff will even out. The weakening of the players’ position in the last couple of CBAs almost certainly makes the owners feel they have more leverage to wait out players. As with the rest of the country, there seems to be a growing divide between the top tier and the entry level with the middle dissipating. It’s probably not sustainable in the long term.

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  94. dmick89

    GW,

    Perkins,

    These are all possible, but I’d expect the changes to be gradual. It’s hard to believe all 30 teams came upon this new information at the same time and have acted in the same manner to it.

    I think the most likely explanation other than the owners colluding is that the players are, which also violates the rules. I guess I’d put the odds of some type of collusion somewhere between 75% and 90% and that gets higher each day. As for which side has the most to gain by colluding, it might be the players who as GW pointed out, have gotten screwed over in the last few CBAs. I still think it’s more likely the owners are because there are fewer owners than players so it would be a lot easier for them to do so.

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  95. Perkins

    dmick89,

    That’s certainly a strong possibility. I do think it possible that this offseason has been a perfect storm of the information, the free agent class, and the competitive balance situation. The top tier of free agents this year is kind of lackluster: Arrieta has some significant red flags; Darvish is good, but has a few warning signs; and Cobb is a gamble. Martinez is the top of the hitting class, and he’s not quite what I’d call a superstar.

    The bigger thing to me is that so few teams have any real incentive to spend. The Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Yankees are the only teams near the top of competitive races. The other four divisions have massive separations between the leaders and laggards, and spending nine figures to have a better chance at a play-in game likely isn’t a great investment for a team whose window isn’t fully open yet. Even if the owners are not colluding, the effect would be the same since the market is so limited. The players have almost no leverage in the current environment. I assume that will change at least somewhat next year.

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  96. GW

    Perkins: The bigger thing to me is that so few teams have any real incentive to spend. The Cubs, Cardinals, Red Sox, and Yankees are the only teams near the top of competitive races.

    Throw in the Angels, Nationals, and Rangers based on talent cycles. Probably some others on the younger end.

    The point is that if only two or three of these teams were more doing more than nothing, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

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  97. Perkins

    GW,

    That’s true, though the Nationals don’t have many needs and the Rangers aren’t likely to be competitive for the WC. The Angels could stand to spend, especially after re-signing Upton and snagging Ohtani, but they’re still well behind the Astros. Collusion is one of the most logical conclusions, especially with the way the balance of power in MLB has shifted away from the players, but I’d probably not wager much on it unless we see a similar pattern next year.

    I know if I were a GM, I’d be hesitant to give more than ~$120MM or 5 years to a starter over 31, especially after seeing the ROI in the past few years (e.g., David Price). But given the recent contracts, I can also see why Arrieta and Darvish would be holding out and thinking they should get more.

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  98. uncle dave

    Perkins,

    Re: the aging curve, I think that it’s also the case that the physical demands of baseball have also changed. The athletes are better than they’ve ever been, pitchers are throwing harder than they’ve ever thrown, and the renewed emphasis on defense and oddities like the advent of the shift have put fast-twitch athletic skills at a premium.

    It’s only one part of the equation, but the game isn’t big, old dudes waiting on hanging sliders anymore. It’s big, young dudes turning on four-seamers. That makes a difference.

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  99. Perkins

    I kind of hope Grimm takes the Cubs to arbitration. It would be hilarious.

    “You know we only non-tendered Rondon instead of you because he makes more money, right?”

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  100. dmick89

    The biggest arms — Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb — all remain unsigned, though it figures to be a seven-team race for the four right-handers.

    I thought the cubs needed one of Darvish or Arrieta and one of Cobb or Lynn. I know that won’t happen now, but if all they get is Cobb or Lynn, this offseason will be complete shit.

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  101. GW

    uncle dave

    I think it’s been pretty well established that hitters do not stand out from the general population in terms of reaction time.

    It’s easy to come up with just-so stories for the curve skewing either direction, and I’ve seen enough of these over the years. (e.g. It’s skewing older because of nutritional and fitness regimens). My point is that when the talent pool changes either way, it’s going to show up in the aging curve. Disentangling this from actual changes to the aging curve are going to be pretty damn difficult.

    My own priors are that the talent pool is going to be fluctuate a lot more than the physiology of those playing the game.

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  102. Ryno

    Field Yates @FieldYates
    Filed to ESPN: the Titans and head coach Mike Mularkey have mutually agreed to part ways, according to a league source.

    Wait… Wasn’t he extended yesterday?

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  103. Ryno

    Rice,

    I was going based off this:

    Ian Rapoport 14 hours ago
    Sources: The #Titans have offered coach Mike Mularkey an extension in the wake of their playoff run. He’s staying.

    Whether he accepted or not, TEN went from offering him an extension (bad idea) to firing him (good idea) really quickly.

    Seems like it has something to do with Josh McDaniels.

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  104. Tyrone

    So’s it sounds likes Yu Darvish met wid de Dodgers last week. Ya’ know? Assumin’ dat’s de sixd team he alluded t’on Twitter. Ah be baaad… Are dey de favo’ites t’sign him now?

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  105. dmick89

    If free agency is no longer going to be at all interesting, MLB needs to schedule a mini season in the winter. 60 games or something with the best team in each division meeting for a best of 3.

    They should expand the season anyway so this is another way of doing that.

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  106. dmick89

    Tyrone,

    I thought the Dodgers were trying to get below the luxury tax. At this point I have no clue who the favorite is. It doesn’t seem these guys are going to get anywhere near the amount we thought they were so just about anyone could sign them. I’m surprised more teams haven’t started showing interest with the price presumably falling every day

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  107. Perkins

    Rice,

    Looks like it’s 4/22 with two option years for $10MM each. Life-changing money for him, and a contract with a lot of surplus value if he remains very good and the Pirates remain bad.

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  108. uncle dave

    GW,

    I generally agree with you here and I believe that the trend towards leaning on younger players is largely due to front office groupthink, as is most every trend we see in baseball. I could see how that affects the aging curve in the aggregate, but when we’re talking about the performance of individual players at various ages, how would that have an impact? Maybe I’m not thinking it through quite enough.

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  109. Tyrone

    Tyrone,

    If you want to monitor the situation, this was his question…

    Two-part question:
    1. Who will lead the league in R+RBI this season?
    2. Which catcher gives the clearest signals (with and without taped fingers)?

    Don’t ask how I know that…

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  110. sharpchicity

    Fun fact, Duensing pitched the second most innings as a reliever in the playoffs last year behind Wade Davis.

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