There’s still nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster

On April 26th I wrote an article about why there was nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster despite his 7+ ERA. This was an article that I took a little heat for two days later after Dempster had the worst start of his career. Considering that I looked at the available information and compared it to league norms or his career level, I didn’t really care. I wasn’t making an opinion one way or the other. It was simply an article that painted a picture of what was most likely to happen going forward.

Not too surprisingly, Ryan Dempster has been his typical self since that article. Since the beginning of May, Dempster has thrown 75.1 innings and allowed a 3.11 ERA. He’s allowed only 5 home runs, walked 21 and struckout 69, which is good for a 2.96 FIP. He’s not just been his typical self, he’s been better. His xFIP still remains the best it’s been in his career as a starter as he’s been unlucky with the home run ball, but not nearly as unlucky as he was two months ago.

This post isn’t an I-told-yo-so post. It’s an example of why we need to be careful about drawing conclusions with small samples. It’s also an example of why we need to look much further than runs allowed and why that’s especially true in small samples. The signs of Dempster pitching as well as he had in the past were there. There weren’t any obvious signs of decline and everything pointed him to being the same pitcher he had been since 2008.

It’s just so easy for fans to draw unnecessary conclusions (myself included). Dempster didn’t pitch well in April, but much of it was bad luck. Whether that was bad luck due to the location of his pitches or something else isn’t something we know. We just know that based on his past and the league trends that he was highly unlikely to continue being as bad as he was. Pitchers that bad don’t pitch in Major League Baseball and most of his other stats were in line with the rest of his career.


174 thoughts on “There’s still nothing wrong with Ryan Dempster”

  1. Touch of Grey, Mish. I’d prefer some of the older stuff, but any Dead is fine with me. Better than 99% of the other shit they play.

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  2. Seems like Dempster has always had a problem with one bad inning around the 5th. It seems to usually be a make-or-break type thing. I’m not really sure how that factors in, though.

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  3. [quote name=josh]Seems like Dempster has always had a problem with one bad inning around the 5th. It seems to usually be a make-or-break type thing. I’m not really sure how that factors in, though.[/quote]He was just bad early in the season. Everything he threw was hit hard and the often times it was hit a long, long way.

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  4. If the score stays as it is, SK wins and gets an attaboy for coming within one run of the Cubs runs scored.

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  5. [quote name=mb21]If the Cubs score 2 and hold the Giants, Megan wins.[/quote]
    And Z is off the hook for the crappy loss. I would be in favor of this.

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  6. [quote name=mb21]The Cubs will have to face the Amish guy if they don’t score this inning.[/quote]
    He’s a sea captain.

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  7. [quote name=Rice Cube]And Z is off the hook for the crappy loss. I would be in favor of this.[/quote]This isn’t looking good for the Cubs. Yesterday they at least had a hint of life early.

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  8. [quote name=Rice Cube]It would be quite amusing if the Amish had a Navy.[/quote]Yeah, I’d laugh for about 3 days if I heard that.

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  9. Russell has only thrown 24 innings in relief this season, but he’s been pretty damn good in the bullpen. .600 OPS allowed. .250 OBP.

    Small sample size blah blah blah

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  10. [quote name=Mish]This post better have been inspired by my Dempster tweets this morning.

    Also, Shakedown Street FTW.[/quote]I didn’t see your tweets. My bad.

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  11. Manu_P_Mishra Manu Mishra
    And Dempster’s ERA in May/June closely resemble his DIPS numbers.
    8 hours ago

    Manu_P_Mishra Manu Mishra
    After posting a 6.49 FIP in March/April, Ryan Dempster has pitched to the tune of 2.68 in May and 3.10 in June (4.13/2.93/3.08 xFIP) #Cubs

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  12. So if you were the Cubs, do you pick up Ramirez’s option, or do you buy him out? Not sure who would play 3B next year anyway.

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  13. [quote name=Rice Cube]So if you were the Cubs, do you pick up Ramirez’s option, or do you buy him out? Not sure who would play 3B next year anyway.[/quote]buy him out.

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  14. [quote name=josh]Think Kerry Wood will be in high demand with that miniscule contract?[/quote]Probably not. He’s been about a replacement level pitcher for nearly 3 years now. He’s a little better than that, but not much. I’m sure some team wouldn’t mind taking a flyer, but they aren’t going to give much up.

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  15. Did these bleeding idiots actually boo Z off, when he left injured? I hope this franchise never has another winning season. These idiots deserve perpetual misery.

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  16. [quote name=josh]Think Kerry Wood will be in high demand with that miniscule contract?[/quote]
    Just saw a MLBTR blurb that says Kerry Wood expects to stay a Cub.

    I agree with buying Rami out. I wonder if he’d waive his option and just accept the buyout to be traded to a contender.

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  17. [quote name=mb21]Probably not. He’s been about a replacement level pitcher for nearly 3 years now. He’s a little better than that, but not much. I’m sure some team wouldn’t mind taking a flyer, but they aren’t going to give much up.[/quote]Not to mention that he took a cut-rate deal to come here, with the understanding that he could stay until he decides to hang up his spikes.

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  18. [quote name=josh]Does Castro have the right skills for 3rd?[/quote]
    I think he needs more power.

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  19. [quote name=Rice Cube]Just saw a MLBTR blurb that says Kerry Wood expects to stay a Cub.

    I agree with buying Rami out. I wonder if he’d waive his option and just accept the buyout to be traded to a contender.[/quote]Doesn’t sound like it. Z’s talk about how he wouldn’t not accept a trade if they wanted to trade him was aimed at both Derrek Lee (who did accept a trade) and Aramis Ramirez who had just said he would not.

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  20. [quote name=josh]Does Castro have the right skills for 3rd?[/quote]Like to see more pop from him. Theoretically, he should be able to handle the defensive duties.

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  21. [quote name=mb21]Castro could play anywhere, but I think his range would be more valuable in CF.[/quote]
    That doesn’t make sense though for this team…unless you stick Brett Jackson in a corner, which also doesn’t make sense.

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  22. [quote name=Rice Cube]That doesn’t make sense though for this team…unless you stick Brett Jackson in a corner, which also doesn’t make sense.[/quote]Unless B-Jax isn’t ready to come up.

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  23. [quote name=dylanj]Brett Jackson may never come up. He can’t hit.[/quote]
    He’s having issues for sure.

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  24. As high as I’ve been on Jackson over the years, his strikeout rate really does concern me since ACT posted that one link a month or so ago.

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  25. I wouldn’t say Jackson can’t hit. Despite his recent struggles he still has an OBP over .360 and OPS of nearly .800. And he plays CF so it’s not like he has to have a .900 OPS to be valuable.

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  26. If Brett Jackson can’t cut the proverbial mustard, well, that is about the most discouraging news I’ve heard in a long-ass time.

    If he’s a bust, you have to absolutely gut this system. They have produced no stud position players (Castro excepted, and I think it’s safe to say the jury is still out there). I was tremendously excited about Jackson because the Cubs haven’t produced a player with his skill set in forever. But if he doesn’t make it, then… UGH.

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  27. Jackson will be alright. He’s in a shitty slump and his walk rate is holding steady. But he is never going to be a guy who hits for a high average.

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  28. I agree, SS. I love his tools. He’s the first on-base machine I’ve seen this team develop in years. If they can’t make it work with him, changes need to be made.

    Castro is going to be good, but not a superstar. He’s already a good ballplayer, but he doesn’t have the power, patience or defense to become a MVP type player.

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  29. [quote name=mb21]As high as I’ve been on Jackson over the years, his strikeout rate really does concern me since ACT posted that one link a month or so ago.[/quote]Tyler Colvin has struck out in 18.4% of his MiLB PA. That went up to 25% in 518 MLB PA.

    Jackson has struck out in 23% of his MiLB PA. This does not bode well for his future.

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  30. Brett Jackson also takes walks. Tyler Colvin did not. Strikeouts arent as big of a deal when you get on base.

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  31. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Tyler Colvin has struck out in 18.4% of his MiLB PA. That went up to 25% in 518 MLB PA.

    Jackson has struck out in 23% of his MiLB PA. This does not bode well for his future.[/quote]No. His K% will increase at the big league level and it’s already too high. He’ll have to have an unusually high BABIP to be as good as I thought he could be. I still think he’ll be a good player, but the odds of him being among the league’s best is slim.

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  32. [quote name=mb21]I agree, SS. I love his tools. He’s the first on-base machine I’ve seen this team develop in years. If they can’t make it work with him, changes need to be made.

    Castro is going to be good, but not a superstar. He’s already a good ballplayer, but he doesn’t have the power, patience or defense to become a MVP type player.[/quote]
    Part of me thinks it’s ok that Castro doesn’t become a MVP-type player. That’s ok.

    But part of me thinks, holy Mick Kelleher, why can’t this team develop a MVP player? How is that possible? Why can’t they draft a Pedroia, a Miguel Cabrera, a Joey Votto, a Ryan Braun, etc etc? Why is that simply not possible for them? I really don’t get it.

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  33. [quote name=dylanj]Brett Jackson also takes walks. Tyler Colvin did not. Strikeouts arent as big of a deal when you get on base.[/quote]That’s true. There are a lot of players who have struckout a ton and still been very good and very, very few who don’t walk much. However, the link ACT posted showed clearly that prospects who strikeout a lot fail at a much greater rate than similar prospects who strikeout less. Without a high BABIP, Jackson needs to have a lot of power like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena. A .230/.310/.400 line is only acceptable. He does have above average speed so he can probably sustain a higher than usual babip early in his career.

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  34. [quote name=dylanj]Brett Jackson also takes walks. Tyler Colvin did not. Strikeouts arent as big of a deal when you get on base.[/quote]Brett Jackson has walked in 13% of his MiLB PA. Colvin has walked in 5% of his (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  35. [quote name=Steve Swisher]Part of me thinks it’s ok that Castro doesn’t become a MVP-type player. That’s ok.

    But part of me thinks, holy Mick Kelleher, why can’t this team develop a MVP player? How is that possible? Why can’t they draft a Pedroia, a Miguel Cabrera, a Joey Votto, a Ryan Braun, etc etc? Why is that simply not possible for them? I really don’t get it.[/quote]Yeah, i don’t care if Castro becomes even an all-star. He’s valuable right now. He should probably be playing somewhere other than SS, but he’s still valuable. There’s little doubt he’s going to be quite valuable before he reaches free agency.

    This team can’t draft a guy like that because they take the 170th ranked prospect with their first round pick.

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  36. [quote name=mb21]That’s true. There are a lot of players who have struckout a ton and still been very good and very, very few who don’t walk much. However, the link ACT posted showed clearly that prospects who strikeout a lot fail at a much greater rate than similar prospects who strikeout less. Without a high BABIP, Jackson needs to have a lot of power like Adam Dunn and Carlos Pena. A .230/.310/.400 line is only acceptable. He does have above average speed so he can probably sustain a higher than usual babip early in his career.[/quote]I dunno. I think Jackson could be a Granderson-type, and he succeeded with an ungodly K-rate for a long time.

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  37. [quote name=Steve Swisher]Part of me thinks it’s ok that Castro doesn’t become a MVP-type player. That’s ok.

    But part of me thinks, holy Mick Kelleher, why can’t this team develop a MVP player? How is that possible? Why can’t they draft a Pedroia, a Miguel Cabrera, a Joey Votto, a Ryan Braun, etc etc? Why is that simply not possible for them? I really don’t get it.[/quote]If you’re trying to say this organization is depressing, I think that you might be onto something.

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  38. Granderson had more power (more doubles, more triples, more home runs) and struckout less than Jackson did. And walked about the same number of times.

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  39. Granderson in AA walked 80 times, struckout 95 times in 553 PA.

    Jackson in AA has walked 65 times, struckout 125 times in 508 PA

    Granderson was just a lot better. 44 XBH for Jackson and nearly 60 for Granderson.

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  40. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Mike Quade really likes John Grabow.[/quote]I like John Grabow these days. He should pitch every day. Every inning. Until his arm falls off. Then make him pitch right handed until that one falls off.

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  41. [quote name=mb21]I like John Grabow these days. He should pitch every day. Every inning. Until his arm falls off. Then make him pitch right handed until that one falls off.[/quote]He can just spit the ball at them.

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  42. The shirt goes to either SK if they lose (assuming giants only score in one inning) and Megan if they win.

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  43. [quote name=josh]He can just spit the ball at them.[/quote]I was going to say they should make him use his feet, but that’s fine too.

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  44. [quote name=dylanj]I still think Drew Stubbs is a best case scenario for Jackson. That would be awesome imho[/quote]How so? I don’t really know much about Stubbs.

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  45. Is Campana currently diving for a ball in the outfield? I mean, that intentional walk could get away from Hill. He should probably dive to be safe.

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  46. [quote name=Muckey]Using Grabow is conceding defeat IMHO.[/quote]
    Who else is left in the pen? I think it’s just Carpenter, and he might not be available

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  47. I’d have run on Campana even at that depth. That kid has a worse arm than Theriot.

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  48. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Nice of the Giants to hand a struggling pitcher an out. Bunts. So dumb.[/quote]I disagree here. A bunt in that situation is the right thing to do. It might be the only thing to do. (dying laughing)

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  49. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d have run on Campana even at that depth. That kid has a worse arm than Theriot.[/quote]
    Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones would be proud (dying laughing)

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  50. The Giants offense is fucking shit smeared shit sandwich with a heaping, steaming side of shit-fried shit.

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  51. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Giants offense is fucking shit smeared shit sandwich with a heaping, steaming side of shit-fried shit.[/quote]
    So you’re saying they’re shitty? I’m not following you here.

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  52. Josh, Drew Stubbs is an OK hitter, but his value is defensively. He has already struckout 111 times this season, which leads the league. If I thought Jackson could field like Stubbs I’d say it’s OK he’s only as good at the plate as he is, but it’s not at all likely he’s anywhere near as good defensively.

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  53. Which position player do you think ends up pitching? I’m rooting for Campana (dying laughing)

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  54. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Giants offense is fucking shit smeared shit sandwich with a heaping, steaming side of Cubs.[/quote].

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  55. [quote name=Berselius]So you’re saying they’re shitty? I’m not following you here.[/quote]All you seem to do here is mock me and be condescending. Go Away.

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  56. [quote name=Berselius]Which position player do you think ends up pitching? I’m rooting for Campana (dying laughing)[/quote]That would be awesome. Then, like Doug Dascenszo, fans would forever remember him.

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  57. [quote name=Berselius]Which position player do you think ends up pitching? I’m rooting for Campana (dying laughing)[/quote]
    I don’t think they can, the Cubs are out of OFs.

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  58. from the twitters:

    Clayton Kershaw has two hits against LHP this season. Adam Dunn has one.

    (dying laughing)

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  59. [quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think they can, the Cubs are out of OFs.[/quote]
    They’ll just put Koyie at 3b again, I guess

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  60. There’s a rumor percolating that a big reason Doug Davis was signed was that Jimbo wanted to get Doug his 10 years of MLB service.

    That so laughably idiotic that I can’t believe it, but it’s telling of the way the Cubs do their business that I seriously considered for at elast a moment. (dying laughing)

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  61. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]There’s a rumor percolating that a big reason Doug Davis was signed was that Jimbo wanted to get Doug his 10 years of MLB service.

    That so laughably idiotic that I can’t believe it, but it’s telling of the way the Cubs do their business that I seriously considered for at elast a moment. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    If it’s true, then good for Hendry. It’s not like throwing Ramon Ortiz or anyone else of his ilk out there instead was going to make a difference. Might as well help a guy out.

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  62. [quote name=mb21]That would be awesome. Then, like Doug Dascenszo, fans would forever remember him.[/quote]He was my mother’s favorite player (she’s not a big baseball fan). She liked quoting Harry or someone who liked to say, “he’s a good little ballplayer.”

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  63. Honestly, I don’t have a problem with the Cubs signing Davis so he can get his 10 years of service time, which is when you get a pension. If the Cubs were going to contend I’d care, but this team wasn’t going to contend so doing something like that would be pretty cool in my opinion.

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  64. [quote name=Berselius]If it’s true, then good for Hendry. It’s not like throwing Ramon Ortiz or anyone else of his ilk out there instead was going to make a difference. Might as well help a guy out.[/quote]Agreed. I’d like to think that people in baseball could be decent and do something like that, but I don’t think most of them are so I doubt that’s why.

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  65. [quote name=ACT]He was my mother’s favorite player (she’s not a big baseball fan). She liked quoting Harry or someone who liked to say, “he’s a good little ballplayer.”[/quote]Many memories of my dad yelling “LITTLE DOUGIE!” When Dascenzo….ran out onto the field, or made a play, or pretty much anything.

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  66. I’m kinda with MO on this one. Even for a bottom feeding team, a rotation slot is too valuable to give away to charity.

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  67. [quote name=mb21]Honestly, I don’t have a problem with the Cubs signing Davis so he can get his 10 years of service time, which is when you get a pension. If the Cubs were going to contend I’d care, but this team wasn’t going to contend so doing something like that would be pretty cool in my opinion.[/quote]Sure. But I’d like HEndry to be focused on things other than “let’s get Doug Davis his 10 years in.” (dying laughing)

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  68. [quote name=josh]Many memories of my dad yelling “LITTLE DOUGIE!” When Dascenzo….ran out onto the field, or made a play, or pretty much anything.[/quote]He had a really long streak of errorless games as an OF, which is less impressive when you consider that he played a lot of partial games there.

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  69. [quote name=Suburban kid]I’m kinda with MO on this one. Even for a bottom feeding team, a rotation slot is too valuable to give away to charity.[/quote]There was at least a chance he was good. He had a few flashes of good, mostly in that one game against the yanks.

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  70. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Sure. But I’d like HEndry to be focused on things other than “let’s get Doug Davis his 10 years in.” (dying laughing)[/quote]
    If it was something he did in spring training then it would bother me more. But Davis was signed in May after roughly 192895 pitchers in the Cubs system went down and it was clear the team was going to suck.

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  71. [quote name=Suburban kid]I’m kinda with MO on this one. Even for a bottom feeding team, a rotation slot is too valuable to give away to charity.[/quote]Yeah. I really don’t think Hendry did it, though. This has got to be typical Chicago sports media fabulism.

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  72. I might feel differently if it was Matt Clement, or Ted Lilly, or someone who was part of an important Cubs team, but Doug Davis? Fuck that.

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  73. [quote name=Suburban kid]I’m kinda with MO on this one. Even for a bottom feeding team, a rotation slot is too valuable to give away to charity.[/quote]Who were they taking it from? They had to sign someone and they had to trade for yet another starter. McNutt was injured and then sucked. So if you’re going to choose between two less than average pitchers, why not choose one for that reason?

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  74. Hilly, Reedy, Bakery coming up. (dying laughing) CUBBIEEEEZZZZZ!!!! WHOOOOOOO!!!!!

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  75. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah. I really don’t think Hendry did it, though. This has got to be typical Chicago sports media fabulism.[/quote]Agreed. I could see it being a choice between Davis and someone similar and Hendry choosing Davis because of the pension, but other than that it’s not like he wanted Wells and Cashner to get hurt along with Jay Jackson, Trey McNutt just so he could sign Davis to get him that pension.

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  76. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Hilly, Reedy, Bakery coming up. (dying laughing) CUBBIEEEEZZZZZ!!!! WHOOOOOOO!!!!![/quote]
    Jim Hendry just perked up

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  77. I saw something that the Cubs let Davis have his last start on Sunday to get his 10 years in. I think it goes by days on a roster so that makes more sense to me. BTW, I think the same article said 10 years pension = $180,000 / yr at age 62 or 63.

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  78. [quote name=Berselius]Jim Hendry just perked up[/quote]CRULLER JIM WILL TEAR YOU APART

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  79. [quote name=Suburban kid]All you seem to do here is mock me and be condescending. Go Away.[/quote]
    (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  80. [quote name=cwolf]I saw something that the Cubs let Davis have his last start on Sunday to get his 10 years in. I think it goes by days on a roster so that makes more sense to me. BTW, I think the same article said 10 years pension = $180,000 / yr at age 62 or 63.[/quote]If he gave him that last start for that reason, that’s pretty damn cool.

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  81. [quote name=mb21]Who were they taking it from? They had to sign someone and they had to trade for yet another starter. McNutt was injured and then sucked. So if you’re going to choose between two less than average pitchers, why not choose one for that reason?[/quote]True, the organization as a whole was injured. In that case, helping a guy get his pension in return for sucking for the Cubs until our own shitty pitchers got healed is fine.

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  82. [quote name=Suburban kid]True, the organization as a whole was injured. In that case, helping a guy get his pension in return for sucking for the Cubs until our own shitty pitchers got healed is fine.[/quote]Yeah, I don’t have a problem with it, on the whole, but that’s such a Cub reason to sign a guy. It almost makes sense. (dying laughing)

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  83. [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Koyie Hill’s swing :: Koyie Hill’s fingers[/quote]

    What, I have to write something here?

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  84. [quote name=mb21]Knowing the Cubs, this game will go until the 19th and Chris Carpenter will have to career ending surgery.[/quote]And then they’ll bring back Mike Bielecki

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  85. [quote name=mb21](dying laughing) jherky wins it.[/quote]
    Enjoy your T-shirt, jherky! (dying laughing)

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