Tom Ricketts has been vocal since buying the Cubs about the need to strengthen the minor league system. It’s getting harder to doubt his sincerity given the construction of a new facility in the Dominican Republic, the increased number of overslot draftees in 2011, and the newly competitive nature of the organization in plucking sixteen year-olds out of foreign countries.
But I’m not specifically interested in discussing the Little Ricketts Dominican Achievers (and proud we are of all of them). What has me intrigued is whether his fingerprints are present in the type of player currently being acquired by the Cubs. Take a look at these names:
Marc Sawyer (15)
Bryan Jost (44)
Ryan Keedy (16)
Rebel Ridling (25)
Sean Hoorelbeke (33)
Greg Rohan (21)
Justin Bour (25)
Andrew Clark (31) – unsigned
Ryan Cuneo (20)
Karsten Strieby (30) – unsigned
Benito Santiago (31) – unsigned
Jacob Rogers (44) – unsigned
That is the complete list of first basemen drafted by the Cubs since Tim Wilken took the helm as fearless draft leader in 2006 up through 2010. Five drafts, twelve first basemen, eight signed, and none picked before the fifteenth round. This is no surprise to anyone who has followed Wilken’s career. He drafts athletes who can move rightward along the defensive spectrum if need be, and the progression from first base is roughly: First Base –> American League –> American Legion Coach.
I do like guys who can hit, and I like up-the-middle guys. Middle guys are usually the best players on the field, so you can move them more easily if the need arises. I know that in Toronto we had 10 of them in instructs (instructional league) one year that went on to play in the big leagues. Some, like Michael Young, Orlando Hudson, and Cesar Izturis, are still there, but others, like Casey Blake, moved to a corner or the outfield.
Of course, Wilken has to follow orders, but the mandate from Hendry seems to have been along the lines of: “Fuck this. You do it.” Wilken’s drafts with the Cubs have not strayed far from his stated philosophy on talent. Cubs fans have learned to expect middle infielders, athletic pitchers and outfielders, and the occasional wide receiver or decathlete. Simply put, first basemen are the opposite of what the Cubs have looked for in a potential draft pick since Wilken took over. So what happened this past June?
Dan Vogelbach (2)
Trevor Gretzky (7)
Paul Hoilman (19)
Roderick Shoulders (25)
That’s four first baseman (three of whom will require overslot money to sign), and two of them in the first seven rounds. It’s certainly possible that Wilken recognized his previous neglect of the position, and decided to make it a priority in 2011. Or perhaps the available prospects were more athletic than in prior years. But just look at this guy:
If DJ Lemahieu stood to his right, they would form a “10.” He moves like a pregnant yak. Not exactly what I would picture as Wilken’s platonic ideal of a first baseman.
I think we have to consider the possibility that Ricketts is subtly steering the scouting department. Carrie Muskat reported that he was present during the draft, and at least influenced the selection of less signable high schoolers. Furthermore, Tom Ricketts was a rich, young financial executive in 2003. That demographic voraciously consumes the Malcolm Gladwell “pop-business” genre like it’s manna from heaven. Is there any chance that Ricketts, who was clearly interested in baseball at the time, didn’t read Moneyball? Now let’s reconsider Dan Vogelbach. Not only is he a poster boy for the “not selling jeans” mantra, he most likely is selling barely-legal pastries from the back of his four wheeler. To me, that pick has “yuppie boss wants a power hitter” written all over it.
It’s not easy to spot a change in draft philosophy, given the variation in available prospects each year. Wilken, in particular, has been all over the map in terms of the typical high school vs. college, and pitcher vs. hitter tendencies. I bring up first basemen because it seems his one obvious avoidance prior to this year.
Of course, all of this is more speculative than forensic, at least until an enterprising beat reporter decides to investigate. Moreover, whether or not a scouting course correction would be good for the franchise is a matter for debate. From where I sit, the minor league system is teeming with mediocrity, and a shift in philosophy would be welcomed. However, Wilken maintains a fair number of defenders even on this blog. At the very least, it’s an encouraging sign for those of us who are desperate for both middle of the order prospects and any sign of leadership within the new regime.
Comments
If we get maples, gretzky, dunston, and vogelbach signed.
GREAT draft IMO. i mean if we can offer a 16 year old 1.1 million based off batting practice, we can offer Dillon Maples 1.6 million
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Great stuff, GW. I’m interested to see how much the Cubs spend on the draft when it’s all said and done. They need to be top 5. If they do that, along with their recent international signings, that’s a great sign for the future of this organization. I’m not a Wilken fan at this point. He’s been around 5 years and the minor leagues aren’t any better than when he took over. They may even be worse. They probably are. I wasn’t a fan of John Stockstill, but I’d rather have him.
mb21Quote Reply
I think Wilken has been alright…
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Right or wrong before the Garza trade we were a top 10 (#8 i believe) farm system in baseball
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Hoilman so far (17 games in Boise) .235/.459/.510
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Fixed that for you. Otherwise, this was very interesting.
If Ricketts is dabbling into the draft process and forcing such a dramatic change in philosophy away from what Wilkens likes to do, one has to wonder how long he’d remain with the Cubs (whether Hendry stays or not).
Aisle424Quote Reply
yeah, 424, that’s a good question. If GW is right that Ricketts heavily influenced the draft, I doubt Wilken even wants to stick around anyway. He’s got a solid reputation and he doesn’t want some goofball fucking it up. If someone is going to fuck it up, I imagine Wilken wants to be the one doing it. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]yeah, 424, that’s a good question. If GW is right that Ricketts heavily influenced the draft, I doubt Wilken even wants to stick around anyway. He’s got a solid reputation and he doesn’t want some goofball fucking it up. If someone is going to fuck it up, I imagine Wilken wants to be the one doing it. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Kind of makes you wish there was an enterprising young beat reporter out there to ask some of these questions instead of just berating Zambrano for not being in a full body cast.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Pregnant yak…nice.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Kind of makes you wish there was an enterprising young beat reporter out there to ask some of these questions instead of just berating Zambrano for not being in a full body cast.[/quote]
Methunk this was the kind of question that Bruce Miles would ask, but I guess not.
I’d almost suggest e-mailing the questions to Muskat as she’s pretty good about getting back to people directly, but I doubt she has more than a cookie-cutter answer anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Methunk this was the kind of question that Bruce Miles would ask, but I guess not.
I’d almost suggest e-mailing the questions to Muskat as she’s pretty good about getting back to people directly, but I doubt she has more than a cookie-cutter answer anyway.[/quote]
It’s not about asking questions, necessarily. It’s about doing some of the research that GW did to see an anomaly. Then they are in a position to ask the questions that research digs up. But they don’t give a damn about what happens behind the scenes because most fans don’t give a damn unless it involves sex or drugs. The beat writers are pretty much just feeding the beast the candy it likes best instead of making it eat vegetables.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I don’t see why Wilken has this wünderkind reputation. I know he drafted Halladay, Wells, Stewart, etc. But what Cubs look like phenoms? Tyler Colvin looks suspect, at best.
I don’t buy that he went cheap in picking Hayden Simpson — I think he was trying to be another Jerry Krause and prove how smart he is by picking a no-name. But that doesn’t look like a great move.
Brett Jackson and Szczur look like definite maybes, but we’ve heard about can’t-miss prospects (Felix Pie, anyone?) forever. He’s had enough time to give us some strong players, and we simply haven’t seen the results.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
Yeah, SS, there’s really little that can be said in terms of Wilken’s performance with the Cubs. He’s had several drafts at this point, the Cubs have actually been sellers along the way and the farm system is not at all good. I see no reason to keep him around. He hasn’t improved the minor league system. It’s more than likely worse right now than it was when he took over.
mb21Quote Reply
Szczur is still so far away that it’s hard for me to even take what he’s doing seriously. Jackson is probably a major league player, but he has flaws. He’s not going to be a superstar by any means. He can probably be a league average player, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that from him at this point.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It’s not about asking questions, necessarily. It’s about doing some of the research that GW did to see an anomaly. Then they are in a position to ask the questions that research digs up. But they don’t give a damn about what happens behind the scenes because most fans don’t give a damn unless it involves sex or drugs. The beat writers are pretty much just feeding the beast the candy it likes best instead of making it eat vegetables.[/quote]
Perfect example right here: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-becoming-alarmed-over-cubs-arm-injuries-20110705,0,1321957.column
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
So…..they finally managed to get Ramon Ortiz in a Cubs uniform. And to think, some people doubted it would ever happen.
binkyQuote Reply
I read something a couple of years ago where Tyler Colvin was rated by external sources as being one of the best athletes in the minor leagues. That doesn’t always translate into success, apparently. You have to also teach them to play baseball.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Perfect example right here: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-becoming-alarmed-over-cubs-arm-injuries-20110705,0,1321957.column%5B/quote%5DI immediately stop reading any article that talks about the Cubs possibly being responsible for injuries when I read Kerry Wood’s name. First of all, that happened 13 years ago. Second, he fucked up his arm in high school.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m interested to see how much the Cubs spend on the draft when it’s all said and done. They need to be top 5. If they do that, along with their recent international signings, that’s a great sign for the future of this organization. [/quote]
Yeah, I was pretty enthused with their selections, but as far as I know, they haven’t signed anybody in the top 15 rounds so far, which is curious.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]Yeah, I was pretty enthused with their selections, but as far as I know, they haven’t signed anybody in the top 15 rounds so far, which is curious.[/quote]
Did you ask this question?
.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube].[/quote]
haha, no. I’m southside gw (way south of wrigley).
GWQuote Reply
There’s this one too…probably just speculation by Bruce, but maybe the Ricketts know that Wrigley’s time is up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If it is indeed in the past, there’s no longer any argument to be made in terms of the Cubs needing a new ballpark. I’m not sure it’s a thing of the past as Levine says, but I do think Wrigley as a draw is not nearly as big a deal as some do.
mb21Quote Reply
fwiw, the astros had signed 16 of their first 20 picks by June 16th.
GWQuote Reply
6 first round picks have already signed as well.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]Perfect example right here: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-becoming-alarmed-over-cubs-arm-injuries-20110705,0,1321957.column%5B/quote%5D
Rosenbloom is barely a reporter. He’s basically been a blogger whose stuff appears in print for as long as I can remember. He does no research and goes for the quick hit and the cheap laugh with everything he does. Al Yellon is more of a journalist than Rosenbloom is.
Aisle424Quote Reply
12 of the 27 supplemental 1st round picks have signed.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]fwiw, the astros had signed 16 of their first 20 picks by June 16th.[/quote][quote name=mb21]6 first round picks have already signed as well.[/quote]
Yeah, but which guys have signed? The Hayden Simpsons of this draft who were just happy to be selected when they were? Or other over-slot selections.
If I’m the Cubs and I have a shitload of over-slot guys that I know are going to be a bitch to sign, I’m probably not wasting a ton of time on the guys who I know are going to sign for whatever I offer.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/05/doctors-clear-albert-pujols-to-return-from-fractured-wrist/
Wow.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/05/doctors-clear-albert-pujols-to-return-from-fractured-wrist/
Wow.[/quote]
I wonder if Albert had some of Bartolo Colon’s stem cells injected in his wrist. It doesn’t seem possible for a broken wrist to heel in 2 weeks.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]I wonder if Albert had some of Bartolo Colon’s stem cells injected in his wrist. It doesn’t seem possible for a broken wrist to heel in 2 weeks.[/quote]Screws and painkillers.
binkyQuote Reply
226 of the 481 players drafted through the 15th round have signed. That’s 47%. Only 2 rounds have fewer than 10 players signed (1st, 3rd). Here they are by round:
Round Signed Total
1ST 6 33
1 SUP 12 27
2nd 11 30
3rd 9 30
3 SUP 0 1
4th 14 30
5th 10 30
6th 14 30
7th 17 30
8th 18 30
9th 20 30
10th 17 30
11th 15 30
12th 17 30
13th 18 30
14th 13 30
15th 15 30
Total 226 481
Not including Cubs draft picks in the first 15 rounds, 226 of 466 players drafted have signed (48.5%). That’s odd.
mb21Quote Reply
Is it possible the Cubs drafted these hitters as they see them almost as a market inefficiency? What I mean is that a few teams have highly sought hitters that appear destined for 1B or DH(Montero, Fielder, ETC) and thus the Cubs could bring them along as trade-bait. That or they realize drafting a kid that can actually hit is more valuable than an athletic player that may or may not hit but sure looks good running to 1st.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]I wonder if Albert had some of Bartolo Colon’s stem cells injected in his wrist. It doesn’t seem possible for a broken wrist to heel in 2 weeks.[/quote]It doesn’t seem possible at all and this isn’t the first time he’s come back from injury in half the amount of time they expected. I remember him tweaking something at Wrigley Field and they said it would take 4 to 5 weeks. It was a common injury and others missed that much time. Pujols was able to come off the DL and play the first date he could return. The man has superhuman healing abilities.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
Not including Cubs draft picks in the first 15 rounds, 226 of 466 players drafted have signed (48.5%). That’s odd.[/quote]
How many are represented by Scott Boras? Half serious, half joking, of course.
I thought the Cubs also drafted a bunch of guys who had serious college commitments and will have to work on them to get them to sign over going to college.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Yeah, but which guys have signed? The Hayden Simpsons of this draft who were just happy to be selected when they were? Or other over-slot selections.
If I’m the Cubs and I have a shitload of over-slot guys that I know are going to be a bitch to sign, I’m probably not wasting a ton of time on the guys who I know are going to sign for whatever I offer.[/quote]Most of the ones who have signed in the first and second were good draft prospects. The Cubs still have plenty of time so there’s no reason to worry, but it is curious as GW said.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]It doesn’t seem possible at all and this isn’t the first time he’s come back from injury in half the amount of time they expected. I remember him tweaking something at Wrigley Field and they said it would take 4 to 5 weeks. It was a common injury and others missed that much time. Pujols was able to come off the DL and play the first date he could return. The man has superhuman healing abilities.[/quote]
The term “fractured wrist” is bad but is also ambiguous. If he were really lucky, it’s just a hairline fracture of one of the seven or whatever little gliding bones in the wrist and it’d still work, albeit with a bit of pain and discomfort. I’m just going off what I recall from anatomy ten years ago though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Now I really wish the MLB.tv free game of the day was Reds-Cards so I could watch and see how well Albert’s mutant super-healing performed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]If Ricketts is dabbling into the draft process and forcing such a dramatic change in philosophy away from what Wilkens likes to do, one has to wonder how long he’d remain with the Cubs (whether Hendry stays or not).[/quote]
Right, I think it would depend on the extent. If Ricketts just wanted to influence a pick or two, maybe Wilken makes that tradeoff for an increased budget. If we can see his involvement in power hitters, though, he could be involved in less obvious personnel issues. Or even be unhappy with the current management. (All the usual caveats about us not knowing anything apply)
GWQuote Reply
lineup tonight
Reedz
Bakey
Rami
Sote
Sori
Lon
Clos
Barn
Moaney
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Now I really wish the MLB.tv free game of the day was Reds-Cards so I could watch and see how well Albert’s mutant super-healing performed.[/quote]
I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t go yard.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Ortiz, Carpenter —–> MLB
Mateo —> DL
Coleman —-> Iowa
BerseliusQuote Reply
I get to see the cubs play live and castro isnt playing…
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I hate my life
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I get to see the cubs play live and castro isnt playing…
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I hate my life[/quote]
What’s he getting punished for now?
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]What’s he getting punished for now?[/quote]
He did go 0-for yesterday with three strikeouts. But maybe he just needed a day off.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]What’s he getting punished for now?[/quote]unclean thoughts
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]226 of the 481 players drafted through the 15th round have signed. That’s 47%. Only 2 rounds have fewer than 10 players signed (1st, 3rd). Here they are by round:
Round Signed Total
1ST 6 33
1 SUP 12 27
2nd 11 30
3rd 9 30
3 SUP 0 1
4th 14 30
5th 10 30
6th 14 30
7th 17 30
8th 18 30
9th 20 30
10th 17 30
11th 15 30
12th 17 30
13th 18 30
14th 13 30
15th 15 30
Total 226 481
Not including Cubs draft picks in the first 15 rounds, 226 of 466 players drafted have signed (48.5%). That’s odd.[/quote]
Interesting. And not all of the Cubs picks are supposed to be tough signs, mainly just the ones bubbles mentioned in post 1. Maybe it’s safari season for the cubs negotiating team.
GWQuote Reply
I would assume there’s little chance Maples signs a professional contract. The same is likely true for Shawon Dunston. Vogelbach doesn’t have a lot of leverage so I would expect the Cubs get him for slot. If the Cubs want to sign Maples it’s probably going to cost several million. It would be nice to see, but I don’t expect he’ll be signed.
mb21Quote Reply
Before GW mentioned it, I had no idea the Cubs hadn’t signed a draft pick higher than the 16th round. I just assumed they probably had, but that there were still several unsigned. It’s weird, but I don’t know if it means anything.
mb21Quote Reply
Zeke DaVoss just signed yesterday.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
About 60% of the players drafted in the rounds 7 through 10 have signed. It’s just weird that the Cubs haven’t signed any. That’s a lot of players who have signed. Still a lot who haven’t and it could be nothing (probably is), but it’s odd.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]About 60% of the players drafted in the rounds 7 through 10 have signed. It’s just weird that the Cubs haven’t signed any. That’s a lot of players who have signed. Still a lot who haven’t and it could be nothing (probably is), but it’s odd.[/quote]False.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]About 60% of the players drafted in the rounds 7 through 10 have signed. It’s just weird that the Cubs haven’t signed any. That’s a lot of players who have signed. Still a lot who haven’t and it could be nothing (probably is), but it’s odd.[/quote]
It’s even stranger when you realize that some of the Carlos Silva money was going to pay for all these picks.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I find it hard to believe we pay Acosta and Malave $2.7m and skimp out on the American specs.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Did they sign DeVoss or are they just close to an agreement? I haven’t paid attention for a couple days.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=jtsunami]I find it hard to believe we pay Acosta and Malave $2.7m and skimp out on the American specs.[/quote]It would be nice if they just acted like a large market organization and outspent most teams in almost every way. That sadly won’t happen though.
mb21Quote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/draft.jsp?c_id=chc
If DeVoss was signed, Cubs.com hasn’t updated it yet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Did they sign DeVoss or are they just close to an agreement? I haven’t paid attention for a couple days.[/quote]I believe he is signed. He was at Wrigley taking BP apparently. Also, that South African kid is signed although it hasn’t been updated on the Cubs site.
jtsunamiQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
Why is the fat kid from Sandlot pictured in the top post? (dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
jtsunamiQuote Reply
jtsunamiQuote Reply
YOU THROW LIKE A GIRL.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mitch atkins is starting tonight for the o’s
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]mitch atkins is starting tonight for the o’s[/quote]
Another Young Player Hendry shouldn’t have let go.
/shakes head
BerseliusQuote Reply
Do the Cubs have any chance of signing Baez?
PFDQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Another Young Player Hendry shouldn’t have let go.
/shakes head[/quote]
I can’t remember- who did they get for him?
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I can’t remember- who did they get for him?[/quote]
Nobody. They just let him go.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Not that I care. Mitch Atkins isn’t going to make the Cubs regret letting him go.
Aisle424Quote Reply
matt loosen is already up in AA
dylanjQuote Reply
i emailed bruce miles about the draft picks and he said its much ado about nothing that they haven’t signed a bunch yet since many are overslot. he also said the cubs are going to sign the good ones fwiw
dylanjQuote Reply
Pujols activated, not in lineup, presumably available to pinch-hit though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Not that I care. Mitch Atkins isn’t going to make the Cubs regret letting him go.[/quote]
Yea, I was just curious. Thanks.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i emailed bruce miles about the draft picks and he said its much ado about nothing that they haven’t signed a bunch yet since many are overslot. he also said the cubs are going to sign the good ones fwiw[/quote]There are a few overslot, but not that many.
mb21Quote Reply
The Cubs signing the good draft picks means they’ll sign the bottom 40 and call it quits. Does anybody actually trust this organization to know a good baseball player when they see one?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The Cubs signing the good draft picks means they’ll sign the bottom 40 and call it quits. Does anybody actually trust this organization to know a good baseball player when they see one?[/quote]Have you seen how fast Tony Campana is!!?
binkyQuote Reply
http://www.sharapovasthigh.com/2011/07/heres-video-of-drunk-brewers-fan.html
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]The Cubs signing the good draft picks means they’ll sign the bottom 40 and call it quits. Does anybody actually trust this organization to know a good baseball player when they see one?[/quote]
They do like to cut things short when they love it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]They do like to cut things short when they love it.[/quote]They’re going to have to do so much signing in a short period so they’re sure to cut it short.
mb21Quote Reply
I just really want them to sign Vogelbach. I think that guy is going to be fun to watch either on a “Wow did he hit that ball FAR” kind of way or “everybody watch fatty fall down” kind of way.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Whoa whoa whoa what gives?
The only good yak is a pregnant one.
LukasQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I just really want them to sign Vogelbach. I think that guy is going to be fun to watch either on a “Wow did he hit that ball FAR” kind of way or “everybody watch fatty fall down” kind of way.[/quote]I would assume they sign Vogelbach. He was picked 68th, but ranked 109 by Baseball America. He does have a strong commit to Florida.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/minor-leagues/midseason-look-at-the-cubs-top-prospects-part-2.html
mb21Quote Reply