10. Kris Bryant’s even better than last year.
Kris Bryant led the league in missing balls he swung at last year. That was the main contributor to his 199 strikeouts. You can live with that many strikeouts if you hit the cover off the ball when you make contact and draw walks besides, and Bryant did both of those things last season. Bryant walked 11.8% of the time last year, added 62 extra-base hits, and ended the year with 6.5 fWAR (!!!). This year, he’s tightened up his swing, which hasn’t really changed his power but has allowed him to cut his strikeouts from 30.6% to 21.7%. His line has went from .275/.369/.488 to .295/.377/.500, and he’s on pace for a goofy 9 fWAR on the year. Defensively, he’s been good at 3B and great in left. Bryant might be the best player on the team already (though I still lean toward the Riz).
9. Jake Arrieta pitched a no-hitter.
Arrieta has been worse in 2016 than either 2015 or 2014, by peripheral stats. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his strand rate and BABIP are unsustainable. The reason is BABIP is unsustainable, of course, is because he threw a motherfucking no-hitter already this season! In all seriousness, Arrieta has been slightly squeezed a little this year, and the slutter hasn’t been as filthy as it was in 2015, but he’s working around his limitations (insofar he has any). That’s what pitchers do, and it’s nice to see that he harness his elite stuff with very good decision making. It helps to play behind the best defense in baseball.
8. The Cubs have a great defensive team.
Just 2 years ago, the Cubs were trotting out Soler, Alcantara, Schierholtz, Ruggiano, and Coghlan in the outfield. Castro was making some plays, and not making others. Fielding…wasn’t that teams strong suit (nothing was). That’s not the case anymore. Fowler is a decent centerfielder who is finally positioned correctly. Bryant is good in left, and Heyward is elite++ in right (maybe the best defensive rightfielder I have ever seen). The infield consists of a very good 3B and 1B, a good SS, and an average 2B. Ross can’t hit, but he’s the best defensive catcher in the business today. We have no weaknesses defensively, and many players play many positions.
7. Hammel and Hendricks have been nails all year.
If I were to point to a weakness for the Cubs going into the season, it would have undoubtedly been directed towards the #4 and #5 pitchers. They’ve combined for 61 innings of 3 FIP baseball, with 51 walks to 20 strikeouts. Hendricks in particular has been sublime, with a 2.68 FIP attached to a 14.9% K-BB%. I’d like to see more strikeouts, though I know that isn’t his game; as it stands, you can make a not-obscene argument he’s been the team’s best starter this year anyway (I wouldn’t make that argument, but I’d listen).
6. Jon Lester doesn’t allow enough baserunners to let them steal.
Lester is very close to having a WHIP under 1 for the first time in his career. When batters make contact, they aren’t getting on (true for all Cubs pitchers), and in the rare cases they do, he strands them (92.7% LOB). Is that sustainable? Definitely not. Am I enjoying it while it lasts? Absolutely.
5. Addison Russell is a hidden superstar.
Personal time: My wife and I are expecting a boy in late August! We’ve had a lot of trouble with miscarriages, but we are 25 weeks deep now so I feel more comfortable telling everyone. That kid’s name: Russell (I swear it’s not completely due to Addy, but I’d be lying if it wasn’t a little). Now that you are abreast of my complete and udder impartiality concerning this future hall-of-famer, let me tell you why he’s so awesome. He’s currently 6th among SS in WAR (1.0, so on pace for 5 this year). He leads all shortstops in walk rate (14.6%, 4th highest on the team among starters). His only weakness so far this season has been his lack of power (.137 ISO on the year). That tells me one of three things; either pitchers will start challenging him because he’s “toothless” (though his ISO is still exactly league average for SS), that when his power develops he’ll draw even MORE walks and get better, or that pitchers know his limitations and he gets those walks anyway (partially due to where he bats in the order). Think about this for a second. The 7 players a pitcher had to face BEFORE Russell have been a grinder unlike any other in baseball. They finally get to a guy that doesn’t hit so many doubles and homers that you’re super afraid of him, and he draws walks anyway. That’s extremely, extremely impressive. It’s reasonable to expect an increase in power (he’s ONLY 22!), and even if it’s modest he’s going to be absolutely special.
4. Anthony Rizzo is Gwynning.
Rizzo received MVP votes last year for his .278/.387/.512 line with 31 HR. Maybe most impressive was the fact that he only struck out 15.0% of the time, combining that with 11.1% walks. This year, those numbers have gone from great to ludicrous. He now walks at a 16.2% pace, and strikes out 12.7% of the time. Having more walks than strikeouts is called Gwynning, and he’s doing so comfortably. With 30 games in, he has 6 more walks than strikeouts. Here’s the thing – Gwynn never hit 32 HR in a season. Steamer projects Rizzo to finish the season with 37. Yeah, he might win the MVP this year with a very outside shot at joining the .300/.400/.500 club.
3. Ben Zobrist has been the best FA of the year so far.
It is going to end up being pretty embarrassing for Berselius and I to lister to our podcasts earlier this year, where we pretty much trash on Zobrist for 5 minutes or so routinely. Yeah, my bad. Rizzo is Gwynning, but Zobrist is doing him one better – he almost has twice as many walks as strikeouts this year. His defense has been pretty good. He’s finding the power that he had in the late aughts/early tens. He can reasonably bat anywhere in the lineup. I love Castro and miss him a lot, but Zobrist has really taken the sting off of that trade (and it helps that Adam Warren has been better than advertised).
2. Hector Rondon is impossibly good.
Rondon is the last player in the league with a negative FIP. That means that by peripherals, you’d except him to to pull a negative run from the AEther once every 60 innings of so. The question isn’t “is Hector Rondon the best reliever in baseball this year,” it is “could Hector Rondon receive Cy Young votes this year?” I’m not kidding, and if you don’t believe me seriously look at his stats this year. Only Kenley Jansen has more fWAR, and he isn’t on the same plane of filth this year. Not bad for a Rule 5 pick.
1. Dexter Fowler has 2.4 fWAR this year.
Fowler signed a 1 year, $13 million dollar deal with an option. You’d be happy with a 2 WAR player for that contract, and you’d expect Fowler to be around there if a bit higher. Well, it’s May, and he’s at 2.4. He’s projected to provide another 2.4 fWAR or so over the rest of the season, so he’s just a casual 5 fWAR guy the Cubs re-signed because every other team in the league was too cheap to sign him. He’s a great clubhouse guy by every account ever, and he’s reached base 46.7% of the time this season. He surely won’t maintain a .430 BABIP over the rest of the year, but he’s walking more, striking out less, and even providing good defense in centerfield. I just love it.
To-day’s base-ball squad-ron
Zobrist 2B
Heyward CF
Bryant RF
Rizzo 1B
Soler LF
Bae-z 3B
Russell SS
The Fed C
Hendricks P
The Fathers
Jankowski CF
Myers 1B
Kemp RF
Wallace 3B
Norris C
Dickerson LF
Pirela 2B
Rosales SS
Rea P
Will the Cubs Win?
No (39)
Is Randy Wrong?
Yes (look at our lineup, then theirs, than ours again)