Share this Post

Comments

  1. mb21

    @ WaLi22:
    No L means he’s still alive for the rotation. it’s between him and Matt Garza who hasn’t pitched particularly well in Arizona. That’s the final spot and will be determined the final week of spring training.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  2. Rice Cube

    I understand the reasoning behind the trade and I still think it’s a good trade, but Travis Wood sucking so bad in spring training makes it hard to justify.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  3. mb21

    Rice Cube wrote:

    I understand the reasoning behind the trade and I still think it’s a good trade, but Travis Wood sucking so bad in spring training makes it hard to justify.

    I don’t care. It’s spring training. Lorenzo Cain is leading all hitters this spring in OPS. Yadier Molina is 9th. Travis Snider and Eric Burress are 11th and 12th. Andrus has a .989 OPS.

    Kevin Correia hasn’t allowed a run yet in 9 innings. Only 4 hits allowed. This guy (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mendolu01.shtml) has allowed 6 baserunners in 10.2 innings. Strasburg has a 7.45 ERA. Roy Halladay’s is 10.57. Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in a rotation.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  4. mb21

    @ Rice Cube:
    The justification for the trade is the same today as it was prior to spring training. Spring stats are useless for a number of reasons.

    1. The run environment is quite high
    2. Players are working on things and not necessarily trying to put together quality outings
    3. the sample size is ridiculously small (sorry, 424)

    There are other factors, but those 3 make them useless. I don’t care if Castro bats .000/.000/.000 in spring training over 75 plate appearances or 1.000/1.000/4.000 over 125 PA. It wouldn’t change my expectation of him one bit.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  5. mb21

    @ mb21:
    For those who don’t want to read the article:

    If Mr. Romney wins Illinois by that margin, it will take the political equivalent of the Bartman ball to cost him the nomination.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  6. Rice Cube

    mb21 wrote:

    If Mr. Romney wins Illinois by that margin, it will take the political equivalent of the leaving Prior in too long and botched double play to cost him the nomination.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  7. Rice Cube

    Doug Padilla…

    Outside the box: Jay Jackson’s solid spring continued with four scoreless innings in relief of Wood. The right-hander, who spent the last two full seasons at Triple-A Iowa, has given up just one earned run in three Cactus League outings and one intrasquad appearance. He remains alive for possibly a long-man spot in the bullpen and his chances only increase if Jeff Samardzija earns a spot in the rotation.

    Why would they put Jackson in the bullpen?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  8. Rice Cube

    Which guy had the extra option? Wells or Volstad? I don’t think they’d force one of them into the bullpen if they are serious about the F7 experiment so I guess they’d keep stretched out in Iowa if/when F7 fails.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  9. josh

    @ mb21:
    I’m ready for spring to be over so we can get to losing the games that matter. Wells, Volstad, Wood — it doesn’t matter who wins the spot, it’s going to be bad.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. Author
    Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    I think Wells and Volstad have to clear waivers before being optioned to the minor leagues. Neither would clear waivers.

    Barring disaster, Volstad is going to be in the rotation to start. I think the last spot comes down to Samardzija and Wells since Wood has shit all over himself every time he has touched a baseball this Spring.

    I’m guessing it’s Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Volstad, Samardzija with Randy Wells hitting the trading block.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. Author
    Aisle424

    josh wrote:

    Any chance this whole thing was elaborate attention-getting/performance art? Did you see the “devil” Peyton he posted?

    I’ve looked at the rest of the Twitter feed and there isn’t much going on there that indicates an intellect capable of something like that.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  12. josh

    @ Aisle424:
    I couldn’t read too much of it. It was like that language virus in that Sam Delany book, Babel-17, except instead of a murderer, it makes you randomly spout stupid fuck face horsecum.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. Author
    Aisle424

    GBTS wrote:

    I hope Travis Wood doesn’t come here and read that out of context. (dying laughing)

    I don’t think he’d get much past the headline if he did find his way here.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    @ josh:
    You guys both know the Cubs well enough so that’s not possible. There are nearly 60 completed surveys so it won’t change much even if someone entered ridiculous numbers intentionally. I know one person did and I’ll remove that one anyway. I think that person had 0 innings for Garza and Dempster and 200+ for Casey Coleman and someone else. 0 PA for some of the starters and 600+ for someone like Campana.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  15. mb21

    One of you math or statistics geeks needs to help me out. Prior to the start of the season I want to publish percentile forecasts based on the average projection. I only care about wOBA and FIP. I know how to calculate 1 standard deviation of each of those, but can someone tell me what the standard deviation is of the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles? I tried to calculate it for 80th percentile and may have fucked up, but I got 1.84. That makes sense. It’s obviously greater than 1 and less than 2. Anyone?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. josh

    @ mb21:
    I don’t think you use standard deviation to compute percentile. But I never really took stats. I can give you the definition for the derivative, if that helps. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  17. WaLi

    @ mb21:
    I’m sure someone here knows more than me about it, but I think the Z tells you how many standard deviations you are away from the mean (in a normal distribution). So for you sample – x, mean of the data – u, and standard deviation – o, the z is (x – u) / o. You then convert this to percentile using excel, your calculator, or a chart..
    http://www.regentsprep.org/Regents/math/algtrig/ATS7/ZChart.htm
    So with 20th, 40th, 60th, 80th you would except z scores of about -.85, -.26, .26, and .85

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  18. GW

    @ mb21:

    Are you using the binomial distribution to calculate standard deviation (the formula published in the book, I believe), or just the showing the spread among the various published projections?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  19. Berselius

    Mish wrote:

    I’d also point out I have some major qualms with the seeding in the Westeros Madness. (dying laughing)

    If we’re talking solely about season 1 of the show and not the books, then Syrio Forel should win by a landslide. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a character do as much with three scenes as he did.

    Syrio was great in the books too but he was amazing on the show.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. mb21

    @ GW:
    I’m not sure if it was published in The Book or not (haven’t read it in awhile), but I know Tango has published the formula on his blog so yeah. I’d assume it’s the same formula.

    I’m too lazy to calculate it right now, but I think 1 standard deviation of wOBA over 500 plate appearances is about 25 points. Somewhere around there. So there’s a 68% chance a .330 projected hitter would be somewhere between .305 and .355.

    Can I do anything with that information to create percentiles? One of the things I was thinking about doing was taking a look at this team and seeing how many players would have to be 1 or 2 standard deviations above the mean projection for this team to contend. It’s not that important, but I thought it might be fun.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  21. GW

    @ mb21:

    i’m not sure how colin and all the rest do percentiles with their projections, but should be alright to say that +1SD = 84th percentile, +2SD = 98th….

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. Mish

    @ Berselius:
    While a far more important character overall, I’m shocked to see Ghost having lost to Jaime. I assumed no one likes Jaime if it’s just based on S1.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. WaLi

    @ josh:
    That reminds me of a story…

    There was once this guy, and he had a dog. It wasn’t just a regular dog. It was a short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog. And, anyway, he was out walking this short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog. And he decided he was thirsty. Figured he go into a bar. He did that. He did just that. Went into a bar. And sitting down the bar from him was this guy with a big, black, slick, mean looking dog-all toothy and gnarly and slick and mean looking. And the guy with the big, black, slick, mean looking dog shouted down the bar to the guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog and said “Hey, that sure is an ugly little dog you got there, all short, fat, squat, ugly and yellow.” And the guy said “Yeah, well he may be ugly, but he sure can fight!” Yeah, that’s what he said. Anyway, so the guy said, “Oh yeah? Well, why don’t we take them out back, and we’ll have them fight it out. And I’ll put a five dollar bill on mine says he wins.” And the guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly little yellow dog agrees with the guy with the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog and said yeah, we’ll do that. And, so, anyway, they went out back, and they had it out. And the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog just whipped the shit out of this big, black, slick, mean-looking dog. After the fight, that short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog was looking good, or as good as he ever looked, I guess. And the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog was reduced to a pile of fur. Anyway, the guy said, “Well, you were right. He sure could fight.” The guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog said to the guy with the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog said, “Yeah, I was right. He sure could fight. Anyway, where’s my five dollars?” The guy gave him his five dollars and said, “Yeah, but I never seen a dog like that, anyway. I mean all short, fat, squat, ugly, little and yellow. What kind of dog is that? I’ve never seen one of them.” The guy said, “Well, he used to be an alligator before I cut off his tail and painted him yellow.”

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  24. josh

    @ WaLi:
    I didn’t really get that whole plot line. There were some wolves and one was weird, and Jon Snow got that one. It was like GRRM started to do a metaphor, but then got hungry and ate a sandwich and wrote about that sandwhich instead.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  25. josh

    Also, it’s fairly transparent that Tyrion is GRRM (or rather, GRRM’s wet dream of GRRM). If you’ve ever seen him in real life, you’ll know what I mean.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  26. WaLi

    @ josh:
    You pretty much nailed it. I think the whole series started off based on a short story he wrote about the wolves. Or maybe it was about the guy getting decapitated. I forget exactly. Also he has said that Tyrion is who he relates to the most.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. Mish

    josh wrote:

    I didn’t really get that whole plot line. There were some wolves and one was weird, and Jon Snow got that one. It was like GRRM started to do a metaphor, but then got hungry and ate a sandwich and wrote about that sandwhich instead.

    Um, no. All the Stark’s direwolves have importance in the stories, and Ghost may be the runt, but he is very much like his siblings. Ghost just gets the most screen time in Season 1.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment