In 2014, Willson Contreras was starting his 6th season in the Cubs minor league system. He was starting A+ ball for the first time ever. The previous year, in A ball, he hit .248/.320/.423, for a wRC+ of 97. He wasn't a horrible prospect, but he profiled as perhaps a backup catcher at the major league level, and one who might never get through the filter of AA. In 2015, his seventh (!) year of minor league ball, he hit .333/.413/.478, exploded onto the prospect scene, and hit even better the next year en route to a midseason callup. Now, Contreras is either the 2nd or 3rd most valuable position player in the Cubs' franchise, and there's a decent chance that he gets a 9-figure contract at some point in his career.
Who saw it coming? In 2013, Contreras (as a 20 year old, in fairness) had a .174 ISO, his highest pre-2015 mark in his career. He'd never walked in 10% of his plate appearances in a season he had more than 100 PA. It's hard to come up with players that are decidedly average for 6 YEARS and then explode for an insane, career-making line. In 2014, John Sickels DIDN'T LIST WILLSON CONTRERAS among his prospects (of which he named 37). Didn't have room for Contreras, while Mike Olt, Shawon Dunston Jr, and Josh Vitters still had some run left in them. In 2015, he wasn't on the list. In 2016, he was 4th.
Like Contreras, Victor Caratini has toiled in some anonymity in the Cubs system for awhile. Like Contreras, Caratini is a mostly catcher (Contreras played a little 1B and some thought he'd have to move there eventually, and Caratini may be a corner outfielder when it's all said and done). Caratini had some better years than Contreras in his first taste of the minors, but he was also much older. In Caratini's first 4 years, his high ISO was .140 (Braves rookie ball), and he was 19 in rookie ball (which is older than it looks). Caratini laid down a line of .342/.393/.558 in AAA last year, which led to him getting a late call-up (where he acquitted himself just fine: .254/.333/.356). Caratini was 15th in the Cubs 2015 Sickels list:
15) Victor Caratini, C, Grade C+: Age 21, stolen from the Braves in summer trade, shows excellent strike zone judgment and is a solid defender. Lack of home run power keeps him from higher ranking but he’s very interesting.
In 2016, he was 15th again:
15) Victor Caratini, C, Grade C+: Age 22, hit .257/.342/.372 with four homers, 49 walks, 75 strikeouts in 393 at-bats in High-A, tools to be a strong defender, good plate discipline, not much home run power.
He went to 10th before last season, and now Sickels has him 5th (and said he could have been 1st!)
5) Victor Caratini, C-1B, Grade B: Age 24, second round pick by Braves in 2013 from Miami Dade JC, traded to Cubs in 2014, hit .342/.393/.558 with 10 homers, 27 walks, 48 strikeouts in 292 at-bats in Triple-A, then .254/.333/.356 in 59 at-bats in the majors; switch-hitter with impressive feel for hitting, raw power not rated as special but had big production boost in ’16 with career-highs in most categories; has a good eye and walk totals should increase in time; defensive tools aren’t naturally outstanding but he’s developed into a steady and reliable receiver through hard work, also playable at first base; fits profile of player who has offensive surge in his late 20s. ETA 2018.
Among the "heavy lies the crown" problems that the Cubs have now is that there is just no spot for the Cubs to naturally include Caratini in 2018. He'll spend the season mostly in AAA, just like Jeimer Candelario did in 2017, and it'll be hard if not impossible for the Cubs to see what they have with him without an injury to either Anthony Rizzo or Willson Contreras. The 2014 Cubs are giving Victor Caritini 500 plate appearances because you just aren't that concerned about getting Beef Castle 500 PA.
If the Cubs have to go out and acquire somebody at the 2018 trade deadline, it's almost certainly going to be with pieces like Victor Caratini (who the Cubs stole from the Braves for Emilio Bonifacio, James Russell, and cash). A Victor Caratini for Pat Neshek trade basically writes itself.
It's awesome when the Cubs (or any team, really) stumbles upon a late bloomer. Caratini has been pretty much an org guy for his entire career, until his age-24 season. There, at catcher, he exploded offensively, and demanded the Cubs take notice. That's fairly interesting.
Comments
Apparently The Walking Dead is still a thing.
JKVQuote Reply
’tis the season of being New Shit Upped…
TyroneQuote Reply
Shut. The fuck. Up.
TyroneQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
That’s a pretty good deal if LA can re-sign/structure him.
TyroneQuote Reply
I think that it’s well-known that Caratini is an authority on Baroque art, but he also has an impressive collection of early bluegrass LPs, and if you’ve ever had his Pad Thai you’d want to eat with him every Friday night.
He’s a renaissance man, really. Just splendid.
mobile daveQuote Reply
Chatwood’s start was so good they cut it short.
JKVQuote Reply
Caratini just injured Felix Hernandez.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
#FlyTheT
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lester ———> opening day starter
Berselius is too lazy to log in on his phoneQuote Reply
Interesting strategy, giving Opening Day to our #4 starter.
mylesQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
myles,
Darvish is the best starter, but I’m not sure there’s a clear second best. I think you could make arguments for any of the non-Chatwood starters.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m not overly concerned about Lester’s being the opening day starter; it strikes me as more of an honorific based on his tenure and performance ceiling. But it’d be really great if he bounced back a bit and pitched better than he did in 2017.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This could be an interesting article premise, because the only clear #1 to me is Jose Quintana (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
I’d rank the starters:
1. Darvish
2. Quintana
3. Lester
4. Hendricks
5. Chatwood
If Hendo gets some of his old velocity back, I might move him up a notch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Happ!
PerkinsQuote Reply
If you told me I could start 2018 with either Darvish or Quintana, I’m definitely taking Quintana. The best indicator of future arm trouble is past arm trouble, and Yu Darvish has had way more of that. I’d overlook that if Darvish was just so much better than Quintana on the mound than he is, but they are pretty close. Darvish is a hair better, though Quintana is a hair more consistent (which is an underrated trait of great pitchers).
mylesQuote Reply
Happ wants to play every day, man.
mylesQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
That’s probably how I’d rank them too, but I don’t think Quintana is that much better than Lester.
dmick89Quote Reply
Poor Willson.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I do! Both projection systems on Fangraphs give Q a .4 run/game edge.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think if I ever saw Orlando Brown in real life, I’d just kick his ass real quick.
TyroneQuote Reply
WTF, man?
TyroneQuote Reply
Football is an interesting game in that going backward is going forward in some ways. This is not one of those ways.
TyroneQuote Reply
Righting that very odd wrong.
TyroneQuote Reply
Ryno, what is Minkah? A S or a CB? You like him at CB in the NFL?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I hadn’t watched a second of film before this comment, but I figured Minkah was a good place to start. I watched a couple games from 2016 and 2017 and here’s what I think:
Good
Smart: He knows his responsibilities on every play and he processes quickly.
Physical: Handles WRs easily and looked the part when lining up at LB and even EDGE.
Zone coverage: Able to stick to WRs and read QB.
Sure tackler
Ball skills: Plus high pointer, ballhawk
Not So Good
Man coverage: Struggles with his back to the ball.
Hips: Not really fluid, got turned around a few times.
Drops head on tackles at times going for hits.
I read recently that Nick Saban is anti-backpedal, which is surprising, and I think that shows on Minkah’s tape. He’s really good in zone coverage, against the run and tracking the ball in the air, but he didn’t show the ability to be a standout outside CB in the NFL, imo. Not saying he can’t improve in that area (especially if he wasn’t coached to pedal and swivel), but I’m not spending a first rounder on him as a CB. DB drills at the Combine will be huge for him.
Based on what I’ve heard/read, I expected Jalen Ramsey-lite with Minkah. The tape shows something more like Jamal Adams-lite, though. Nothing at all wrong with that, but I’ll have to watch some Derwin James to see who the top safety in this draft is.
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
I always thought he was Tyrann Mathieu-lite. Not really a CB but could handle Nickle or Dime. I’m with you though. I can’t see the Bears drafting him at 8 to play CB. And their Safety play was pretty good this past year with Amos and Jackson. I want Nelson and depending on how Edmunds does at Combine, I wouldn’t mind him. Maybe even Vea. You think Vea fits in the Fangio D? Seems like he’s a Ngata clone.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I thought Mathieu was a great fit as a nickel DB. He could play slot CB or either S role pretty well. I don’t think that’s Minkah, who looks like he’s pretty much a FS only on tape.
Quenton Nelson is one of the few elite prospects in this draft. Him and Roquan Smith for sure, with Derwin, Chubb and Edmunds as possibilities.
Vea’s a beast, but he doesn’t know what he’s doing. His technique is a mess because he’s strong enough to pretty much do whatever he wants and get away with it.
Fangio is good at adapting to the players he has, but his teams have never made 0-1T a priority. With the amount of snaps taken in nickel, you can find a competent nose anywhere. For me, a guy like Mo Hurst has much more value.
TyroneQuote Reply
In a vacuum, I’d rank the defenders:
Chubb
Roquan
Edmunds
Derwin
Hurst
Minkah
Derwin could move to the top or bottom of this list after I watch his late-2017 tape.
TyroneQuote Reply
Nelson just as good as a pass blocker as he is a run blocker? I know he’s the best run blocker in the draft and might be one of the best in the NFL as a rookie but how does he look as a pass blocker? With the way teams are trying to get pressure up the middle, I don’t think drafting Nelson at 8 is an issue but there are a lot of people who disagree. What’s your thought?
MuckerQuote Reply
TyroneQuote Reply
Mucker,
Nelson’s so good in every aspect that he might be the best OT in this draft. Sometimes it just takes one guy to take an OL to the next level. Think Zack Martin with DAL, but Nelson’s better. I think that’s worth the 8th overall pick.
Then you add in the lack of elite prospects in this draft and Nelson should be top 3 on every team’s board (unless you need a QB).
Plus, like you said, teams are more concerned about generating interior pressure. Lawrence Taylor made OTs more valuable, but all the impact 3Ts today are helping interior OL catch up.
TyroneQuote Reply
Solution: Give the kids guns.
TyroneQuote Reply
Tyrone,
I agree. I’m all aboard the Nelson train. If Long is healthy, an interior line of Long, Whitehair and Nelson is nasty.
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
If they can find someone to catch the ball, they’ll set up Trubisky nicely. Too bad they’re in the same division as MIN and GB.
TyroneQuote Reply
Rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Darvish, Quintana, Chatwood
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Fire sale.
TyroneQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/spring-training-game-6-athletics-cubs/
mylesQuote Reply