Starlin Castro has not been a good defensive shortstop to this point in this career. His career UZR is -11, his DRS is -15 and his Total Zone (TZ) is -27. His 60 errors since 2010 leads all MLB players. Ian Desmond is close at 58, but has played a little more than Castro. Those two are nowhere close to the next most errors of 47 (Cliff Pennington). Those 3, along with Mark Reynolds (46) and Elvis Andrus (41) are the only players with 40 or more.
Ian Desmond leads the league in fielding errors with 41 and Castro is 2nd with 30. Castro's 30 throwing errors is 4 higher than Alcides Escobar's. Castro makes especially poor throws and is an equally poor fielder.
One way to look at how Castro may perform defensively as he ages is to compare him to other similar players. The problem is that there aren't many similar players. In fact, there have only been 7 other shortstops (75% of games played at SS) since 1947 (integration) who have had 800 or more plate appearances through age 21. Those 7 are Elvis Andrus, Edgar Renteria, Alex Rodriguez, Jim Fregosi, Garry Templeton, Alan Trammell and Robin Yount. Needless to say, Castro is a rare player. It's obvious you just don't see shortstops at his age with the kind of experience he already has.
Among these 8 players, Castro's TZ is worst at -27. Robin Yount is just ahead of him at -26. Then you have Trammel (-9), Templeton (-7), Fregosi (-5), A-Rod (-1), Renteria (1), and Andrus (6). It also becomes clear by looking at this that young shortstops just aren't very good defensively. The 8 have a combined TZ of -66. Obviously this group didn't force their way on the MLB roster because of their defensive skills. For what it's worth, they also weren't especially good hitters other than A-Rod. A-Rod was 62 batting runs above average, Templeton 13, Fregosi 8, Castro 6, Trammel -20, Renteria -26, Andrus -31 and Yount -45. I'm not concerned with their offense right now. Castro isn't going to be A-Rod, but who thought he would be?
I'm wondering how the others did after their age 21 season. Andrus has played just one year beyond that and was worth 9 TZ. We'll throw him out since he only has that season.
Renteria was worth +5 over the 3 seasons following his age 21 season. He showed only modest improvement. A-Rod was worth 19, but to be fair, that includes a +16 season. Fregosi's TZ was 31. Templeton's was 12. Trammell's was 27. Yount was worth 22.
Yount gives us the biggest reason to be optimistic about Castro's defense. His improvement was considerable, but it's also important to point out that Yount's -26 through age 21 included twice as much playing time as Castro has had. Castro is coming from a point that we really haven't seen before, but there have been so few SS with this much playing time that it's hard to estimate what he may do in the near future.
It's clear, as well as obvious, that these players improved defensively. It's not clear by how much. Renteria barely improved. Yount, Trammell and Fregosi improved by a considerable amount. I can't help but notice Garry Templeton's name again.
Castro performed offensively almost exactly the same as Templeton did in High A and in AA at the ages of 18 and 19 respectively. Castro returned to AA at the age of 20 and hit the shit out of the ball while Templeton was assigned to AAA and hit very well there. Castro had about 300 fewer plate appearances at the age of 20 in the minors than Templeton, but throughout the minors these two were very similar to one another.
Their first two seasons in the big leagues?
| Player | From | To | Age | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Garry Templeton | 1976 | 1977 | 20-21 | 0.314 | 0.331 | 0.427 | 0.757 |
| Starlin Castro | 2010 | 2011 | 20-21 | 0.304 | 0.343 | 0.422 | 0.766 |
Castro's OPS+ was 107, Templeton's 106. Templeton had 5 rWAR and Castro had 2.8 rWAR. The difference was the defense, which is listed above. Templeton had 19 batting runs above average to Castro's 6 and Templeton did it 350 fewer plate appearances. Templeton had an 85 OPS+ over the rest of his career and 20 rWAR. Let's hope that in 10 years we look at these two players and the only thing they have in common are the final 2+ seasons in the minors and first 2 seasons in the big leagues.
As for Castro's defense in the future? Your guess is as good as mine. He'll improve, but more than likely will never be better than average even if he improves as much as the others who improved the most. If he improves like Renteria did, Castro won't be playing SS much longer.
Comments
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20655513&topic_id=8879838
So, uh, isn’t that blatantly foul?
GBTSQuote Reply
I think it rolled into fair territory without touching anyone.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That makes sense.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
It was hard to see from the angles they showed, but I think it hit the dirt to the side of the plate, which meant it would’ve been foul…right? If it actually hit the plate first then it would’ve been fair.
I guess I should look up the rule. Vin Scully seemed a bit confused about it too.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
My problem is that the umpire gestured foul. In my mind, the minute an umpire makes a ruling that a ball is foul, it should be dead. if the ball is spinning around with the possibility of going fair, don’t make a call. Those players were hung out to dry. They probably would have gotten 2 on the play even if the ump had signaled accurately, and maybe even 3, but they were sitting sucks as it played out.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It looked like the ump held his hands up which means “dead ball” as far as everyone was concerned. That’s why the runners didn’t try to advance and were confused.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Exactly.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, it should be like NFL where even if the ref mistakenly blows the play dead, it’s dead, not matter what the right call was. Not fair to the runners at all.
joshQuote Reply
Ibanez just hit the ball 900 feet.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That’s significantly shorter than Hanley.
GBTSQuote Reply
Also, to actually respond to the post, I think age is the most significant factor here. MB is right, we just don’t have a lot of comparables. If he were already 26 or 27 I’d say move him off short for good. No reason to not let him continue to try and improve at this age.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/dodgers-turn-first-2-5-4-3-triple-023719180.html
2-5-6-3 triple play, but everyone seemed to think that the ump ruled it foul.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I wonder if there are other players out there that came up young at SS with a decent bat and then shifted pretty quick to 3B or 2B. If it were 1:00 a.m. I could probably think of a few, but at the moment I’m drawing a blank, aside from the aforementioned Yount, but he went to CF. Chipper? Jose Bautista? I don’t really believe the Cubs will keep him at SS unless they are doing their Dunston dance.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
I don’t think they keep him there much longer either. You never know how someone may improve, but after the end of this season if he hasn’t shown much improvement I’m not sure there’s much of a point in keeping him there. Right now though, I don’t see any reason to move him. Let’s see if he can show improvement this season and go from there. So far it’s not looking good.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Based on position differences, how much less value would we see from him moving positions?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I agree with this and I’ve thought about it before too. It seems absurd they could call it foul and then later fair. However, there are many plays like this and going with the immediate ruling would lead to more bad calls than we already have. You have base hits down the line that are rules foul and then fair as umpires huddle together. The times an outfielder makes a diving catch and it’s ruled and out and after discussion they realize he trapped the ball. Most of the time it results in one less base and maybe one less run. Sometimes it results in a triple play. So I don’t know what to do.
I do agree and have for a long time. It’s just crazy that they can call one thing and then call another, but I think it has to continue happening the way it has and the way it did in that video. It sucks on occasion, but I’d rather they just get it right.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
Here are the positional adjustments used for WAR: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_to_calculate_war/
These adjustments are not uncontroversial (BaPro uses different adjustments).
ACTQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Theoretically, none. Say he’s a -10 fielder. The position adjustment at 2nd, 3rd and CF is 5 runs lower than SS, but his defense will improve by about 5 runs. At SS he’s a -10 fielder with a positional adjustment of +1.25 WAR per full season. At 2nd, 3rd or CF he’d be a -5 fielder with a positional adjustment of -0.75 WAR per full season. His defense improves by half a win and his positional adjustment gets worse by half a win.
mb21Quote Reply
Here’s a later positional adjustments study Tango did (using runs, not wins):
+12.5 C
+7.5 SS
+2.5 2B/3B/CF
-7.5 LF/RF
-12.5 1B
-22.5 DH
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/only_the_nose_knows/
So, a move to 2B or 3B looks like a loss of half a win/5 runs per year.
ACTQuote Reply
Ignore my previous comment, I was wrong.
mb21Quote Reply
As ACT points out, SS is .75 and 2B/3B/CF is .25. Same thing, but lower than I mentioned above. Not sure why I had it that high.
mb21Quote Reply
@ ACT:
Plus the better fielding so it doesn’t really matter. In theory you could move Castro to 1st base and it wouldn’t matter in terms of his value. He’d just go from a -10 fielder to a +10 fielder and his pos adjustment goes from 0.75 WAR per full season to -1.25.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I should have clarified that I was just looking at what his bat would be worth at different positions. We really don’t know exactly how Starlin would do at another position and it probably depends on which position he takes.
ACTQuote Reply
You can’t really determine how good someone will be at a position by adding/subtracting runs. Not just because of different skill sets and a learning curve, but because it doesn’t really work linearly. You can’t say there’s a 10-run difference between LF and CF, so an average CF is +10 in LF and an average LF is -10 in CF. If that were the case, you could have them switch positions with no net loss, when in reality you save far more runs having the better fielder in CF.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
There is some difference though. It is just an estimate on how much better he will perform based on comparables, isn’t it? So most SS who move to 2B/3B/CF will be better in defense by 5 runs.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It’s just theoretically, but I’m not sure what you’re saying is accurate. If you have two guys and you know that one is 0 runs in CF defensively and +10 in LF and the other is +10 in LF and 0 in CF, I don’t think it makes a difference where you play them. A run saved is a run saved. Teams play their best outfielders in CF for the same reasons they play their best infielder at SS.
If CF/LF save a combined 10 runs, it doesn’t really matter if 15 of them are in LF and -5 are in CF or if 35 are in CF and -25 in LF.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
That’s the part I disagree with. If an average CF is +10 in LF, and average LF is probably worse than -10 in CF. It’s just not linear like that. CF has far more chances than LF, and that’s why managers put their best fielders there (do you really think the manager could switch his LF and CF with no net loss? What about SS and 1B?)
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
In the link you posted, Tango kind of alludes to this, that the numbers don’t work when jumping from SS to 1B.
WaLiQuote Reply
Bobby Valentine —> Already pissing off his players.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120416&content_id=28823234&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
(dying laughing) Only 25 weeks to go!
GBTSQuote Reply
Sorry to hear your new restaurant venture isn’t going well, mb
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/police-arrest-3-suspected-of-murder-and-cannibalism-in-connection-to-human-stuffed-pastries/2012/04/14/gIQACp0YHT_story.html?hpid=z15
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Basically, yes. You never know how one player will do defensively if he changes positions, but generally speaking they’ll improve enough defensively that the lower positional adjustment doesn’t matter.
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
This makes me miss living in RI even more. Listening to WEEI on my commute was a great source for comedy.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I was going to argue what WaLi ended up linking (1b is slightly different). But Just change 1B to LF and your argument still stands
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Don’t worry, I’ve got a … “gut” feeling those women are around here somewhere.
GBTSQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
Those are really two different positions. It’s like asking if I think a C and SS could switch places.
What you’re saying is you think the 10 run difference between LF and CF is different because of the number of chances the outfielder would have. What I’m saying is that when you factor that in the difference is 10 runs. A league average CF might be +15 if he had an equal number of chances that he’s used to in CF. I don’t know. A league average LF might be -5 if he had the same number of chances as he had in LF. Again, I don’t know. What I do know is that generally speaking the LF/RF will typically be 10 runs worse in CF. That’s a combination of the different skills required to play CF as well as the additional chances.
How one player may do, I don’t have any idea. Some starting pitchers are no better in relief. Some relievers are as good as a starter. On average, there’s about a .8 to 1 run per 9 inning difference between the two roles. Where one pitcher will fall I have no idea, but that’s the average difference.
mb21Quote Reply
That’s quite a pedagogical method, b.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/fielding_position_adjustments/
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I guess the one thing you can’t account for with position changes is how much that player will be targeted. If you put a Prince Fielder at SS/CF, I bet you’ll see a lot more balls hit his way.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I teach college students, I have to attach Chipotle applications instead.
BerseliusQuote Reply
From the link above:
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
That would be interesting to see. I’m not sure the batters could really do it unless they just tried to bunt it past the pitcher and 3B. Would be funny though. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Strasburg v. the Astros tonight. Over/under on strikeouts is hamster.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Not if you’re at a state college.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Not from the experiences I had at the state colleges at which I’ve babysat students (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Sometimes I mix it up and attach Starbucks or Urban Outfitters apps instead.
BerseliusQuote Reply
update coming. Now with 100 % more game of thrones
dylanjQuote Reply
new shit up
dylanjQuote Reply