Over the last two or three days, I've read a few articles that have mentioned that the Cubs could contend as early as next season. I don't want to single anybody out, because I have a lot of respect for both of these writers. The first time I read it, I thought "what the hell?". The second time I read it, I thought what the hell am I missing?".
If I read this from some super optimistic Cubs fan on twitter, I wouldn't give it any thought. The people I read this from are smart. They're good at what they do. I have to be missing something, so what is it?
The Cubs don't have any prospects that we could expect to get any sizable amount of playing time from next year. The Cubs have not been quick to promote their top prospects. There's really nothing going on in Chicago right now that could cause the Cubs to do so any time in the next calendar year.
Javier Baez has basically spent a year at each level so far and I expect we'll see that same sort of schedule looking ahead. That would mean we should see a promotion to Tennessee at some point this year and a promotion to AAA Iowa around a year later.
We have less information on Jorge Soler, but based on his contract it appears the Cubs are ready to give him at least 2 to 3 years in the minor leagues. Both Baez and Soler have aspects of their game they can work on and there's no hurry to get them to the big leagues. It's highly unlikely we'd see either of these players prior to September 2014 (at the earliest).
The Cubs top pitching prospects entering the season were Arodys Vizcaino and Dillon Maples. Vizcaino was recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He's since had a second surgery and won't be pitch at all this year.
Unlike Vizcaino, Maples has actually thrown pitches, but they're not finding the strike zone very often. He's shown horrible control in his career even though it's still a small sample.
Duane Underwood has only made 3 starts at Boise and is a very long way away from the big leagues. The same goes for Paul Blackburn.
Kyle Hendricks and Pierce Johnson have emerged as the system's top pitching prospects. Johnson has been very good in his first full season of professional ball. Hendricks has similarly good results at a higher level. Of the two, Johnson likely has the better future ahead of him. Like Hendricks, Johnson has very good control, but has struckout a lot more batters. Still, scouts see Johnson as a mid-rotation to back of the rotation starter at the big league levels. Dave and I gave him a grade of 6D entering the season and Myles and I bumped that up to 7D. That strikeout to walk ratio is quite good.
Hendricks will probably get to the big leagues more quickly since he's due for a promotion to AAA Iowa anytime. Johnson is still at least a year away and it's doubtful we'd see him in Chicago prior to mid 2015.
In other words, if the Cubs are going to be contending in 2014 or 2015, isn't this going to have to come from what they currently have and/or acquire in free agency? If this team is close enough to contention that we're talking next season, why are the Cubs apparently so eager to trade Matt Garza? He's young enough that an extension makes sense. Losing him only makes success in the short-term more difficult.
For that matter, why are the Cubs even entertaining phone calls about Jeff Samardzija? If the Cubs think they can contend in 2014 or even 2015, Samardzija will have to be an integral part of that run. The core of the team we see right now would more than likely be the core of the team that would lead them to the postseason.
Can we really say that the current core is that good? I sure as hell can't. Maybe I'm just not watching this team frequently enough. Perhaps the games I watch are the ones in which Starlin Castro looks like one of the worst everyday hitters to wear a Cubs uniform that I've ever seen.
I can't possibly see a successful Cubs team in the next year or year and a half in which Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija and a pre-shitty Castro aren't huge parts of the team. Anthony Rizzo has been pretty good. Maybe not great or anything, but consider his age he's been alright. He ain't that good though.
I don't get the impression the Cubs are going to go wild this offseason on free agents. I don't even think there are even enough of the kinds of free agent players the Cubs would sign that are available. Instead of gearing up for spending a bunch of money, the front office seems poised to sell a lot of players over the next month. I don't see the Cubs getting back the kind of MLB ready talent that's going to help them contend right away for the likes of Ryan Sweeney, Nate Schierholtz, Matt Garza, Kevin Gregg and possibly Scott Feldman. If that was possible, the Cubs would probably be contending right now.
I'll admit that 2014 or 2015 sounds like the year the Cubs should be contending. About 5 years ago I thought the Cubs could be contending by 2014 or 2015 if they made the right moves and got a little lucky. That doesn't mean that it's still all that reasonable.
I think the earliest we can talk about a Cubs team contending is 2015 and that will require a great deal of luck. Realistically, we're looking at 2016 and beyond.
Comments
Francouer ——–> DFA
BerseliusQuote Reply
You’re missing a metric fuckton of optimism is what. Think hype around Corey Patterson levels of optimism.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He’s just now bad enough to warrant a DFA? He must be having an awful year.
joshQuote Reply
I mean, if you wanted to be optimistic about it, and think that Castro gets his shit figured out before the end of the year (or at least by the start of next season), Rizzo takes an actual step forward next year, Vizcaino is healthy and contributes in 2014, they get a return for Garza on par with getting Segura for Greinke, they hit on one-year guys the same way they did with Schierholtz, Feldman, & co., Alcantara performs well once he gets promoted and hits his way onto the major league club out of ST next year, and Baez spends the next calendar year absolutely mashing everywhere he goes and demands a june callup…..maybe that’s a fringe contender. Maybe.
sitrickQuote Reply
I think a lot of people look at the current team’s peripherals (like the ones used by BP here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ ) and see that expecting them to be .500 so far with some luck and a better bullpen isn’t the craziest proposition. And from that, they expect the Cubs to actually be in the .500+ range next year with Castro hitting better, guys like Cabrera/Watkins/Alcantara etc helping out in mid/late 2014.
What these people miss is that building a good bullpen is extraordinarily hard. It’s rare a team can go out and buy 3-4 quality relievers (what it would take to make this bullpen good) and have more than 2 of those contracts work out. People just expect the Cubs to go “OK! Time to contend and field a real bullpen” like that’s an actual option.
Even harder would be continuing to find success in 4/5th starter signings like they’ve had with Feldman, Maholm, Villanueva. Those types of signings are likely to be busts, and the strategy that built this current .500-capable team (according to BP’s metrics) isn’t exactly sustainable.
If Theo and Jed did manage to find the right pieces for the pen and rotation in the next few seasons, I could see them being around .500 in 2014 and contending in 2015. It’s just a really unlikely outcome.
TommyQuote Reply
@ josh:
That depends on whether you consider a .209/.250/.324 line from a right fielder awful.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Aaron Harang gets his first strikeout of the day. In the 8th.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Harang might get a CG loss.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Well, they sure aren’t contending THIS year.
#obligatory
rice in limboQuote Reply
All hail Carl Newhouse.
rice in limboQuote Reply
Adolfo!
BerseliusQuote Reply
Kevin Gregg is human after all!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I agree with Tommy that alot of it comes from the peripherals that suggest they’re better than their record this year. Rizzo will be average or better, and Castro’s track record indicates the same. They’ll probably get something decent for Garza, and maybe get contributions from Vizcaino (I think he’s a closer). I do think the mid-grade signings they’ve made over the last 2 years are good, and they seem to be good at it. Valbuena is decent, and they technically have the RF platoon and DeJesus under contract next year if they don’t trade them for something better. Castillo is average, and so is Barney. F7 and Wood are taking strides, and they’ll still have Jackson (average) in the rotation. I think they’ll definitely be better next year than this, though I think its a .500 club. 2015 is likely the first year of real contention.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
The tone of dmick’s post suggests that forces in the universe have now returned to normal. All that optimism since March was really starting to freak me out. (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
100 losses in 2013, dmick?
SVBQuote Reply
SVBQuote Reply
On Usenet in rec.sports.baseball, Nelson Lu weekly posts RC/25 and PRC/25 stats for all regular position players in MLB. The Cubs have exactly ONE player above average. That player is Nate Schierholtz who just happens to be having a career season. I don’t think the Cubs planned on having him around for 2015/16/17 or whenever it is that they are supposed to be able to compete. He was another one of those flippable guys. To me, it looks like this team is going absolutely in reverse.
FrankSQuote Reply
@ SVB:
No, they’re not that bad. They were about a 70-75 team entering the season. I just don’t see next year’s team being all that much better than this one.
dmick89Quote Reply
The Blue Jays are in last place. Their record is 40-40.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Broken ribs for Sweeney, he’s out 4-6 weeks
BerseliusQuote Reply
new shit
sitrickQuote Reply
the cubs won’t be ready for 2015 or 2016. they will be luck to be at .500 in 2017. the cubs have biaz, almora, soler, but brett jackson is a bust and josh vitters as well. they try to get you to believe that they will be contenders in 2015, but in reality they have no top of the line pitching prospects. you can hit all you want but if you can prevent the runs you will lose every time. the moneyball theory is so stupid it’s laughable. the oakland a’s tried that and they changed their theory and started winning the next season. the problem could be to things, lack of depth in the minors, and the front office staff.
david chapmanQuote Reply