Apparently, the Cubs were not done dealing. They've just sent David DeJesus to the Washington Nationals for a player to be named later. I'm trying to wrap my head around this trade, and I really can't.
First, let's break down what this means for the Nationals. The Nats already have a stacked outfield, with Denard Span, Jayson Werth, and Bryce Harper. Denard Span plays center and is the worst of the 3 by far, and also has a .427 (yes, .427 OPS) against lefties. DeJesus, however, has developed a nasty split as well, and can't hit lefties either. Werth also doesn't hit lefties, so he'd only "platoon" with Bryce Harper, and Harper isn't going to sit so David DeJesus can play. DeJesus becomes the 4th outfielder who is bad in the games the Nationals outfield would want him to play in. I'm only speculating, but this makes a lot more sense if the Nationals are expecting one of their outfielders to miss significant time in the near future; I'm not aware of any PED suspicion for anyone in the Nationals' OF at the time, so that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.
The word on the street is that the Nationals may not even expect to pick up DeJesus' option for next year (and they are on the hook for $1MM of salary this year and the $1.5MM buyout afterwards – the Cubs didn't send any money), so they've really spent 2.5 million on a 4th OF if this is true. That might make sense for a team that's right in the hunt this year or certainly in the playoffs, but is that the Nationals? Washington is 9.5 out of the wild card. Baseball Prospectus has the Nationals at 1.2% to make the playoffs this year and an expected record of 80-82. Maybe DeJesus adds another win over the rest of the year (a charitable number at that). Is being 10 out of the WC any better than being 11? In fact, the Nationals are only 3.5 games back of the bottom 10 (and a protected 1st-rounder). They should be striving towards THAT goal, not this one. This move makes no sense for the Nationals at all if they don't pick up DeJesus' option, which means that I have to operate under the assumptions that a) he's a straight replacement over Denard Span, who is moved to the 4th OF spot and b) the Nationals are picking his option up (or at least intend to at this point).
Unfortunately, I think this move makes even less sense for the Cubs. DeJesus either cleared waivers or at least cleared several teams in the NL, many of which actually had a glaring need for an outfielder (*cough* San Francisco *cough*). The Cubs received a PTBNL, and it's not likely to be a good prospect considering when the Cubes traded him. Essentially, the Cubs only receive $2.5 million in salary relief.
DeJesus leaves a huge gap for the Cubs, both at the top of the lineup and at centerfield. Lake probably can't play there full-time, if his bat even is enough to play in the majors (an open question). Even if Lake sticks at center, the Cubs have no one in LF for next year (right now, the starter there is replacement-level player #4506, Brian Bogusevic). Sure, maybe the Cubs hold on to Ryan Sweeney next year, and maybe he becomes a serviceable role 4+/role 5 type of outfielder, but a) I doubt that Sweeney is anything better than a really nice 4th OF and b) he's not beholden to the Cubs at all, as he's a FA at the end of the year. DeJesus was a capable CF on a middling team, and wouldn't kill you. Bogusevic is a quad-A guy that is much, much worse.
What I'm truly afraid of is that this is a sign that the Cubs don't think they are competitive in 2014. If they wanted to go for it, they'd definitely keep DeJesus. If they signed Ellsbury or Choo or Granderson or Beltran, they could keep him as a 4th OF, or not pick up his option, or trade him afterwards (and this all presupposes that Lake is going to be better than DeJesus, which I'm still very uncertain of). It's true that the outfield is the one place in 2013 that you can reasonably expect to fill, but that doesn't guarantee that the Cubs won't be left without a dance partner. We had the possibility of a Choo/DeJesus/Schierholtz OF yesterday, and now we have a chance at a Bogusevic/Sappelt/Schierholtz or a Lake/Sweeney/Schierholtz one.
To summarize, the Cubs traded a cheap, fairly productive outfielder that fit in the 2014 plans to a team that has an outfield that can't hit lefties for what is likely going to be no return at all. I don't really get it.
Comments
@ sitrick:
My main counterargument is *shrug*.
My subcounterargument is that maybe the Cubes are harder up for money than we thought, or they think they have a bead on a young arm in the Nats org that they can steal away.
joshQuote Reply
“What the hell is role 7?”
It is the 20-80 scale.
Role 2: organizational filler. (Jonathan Mota)
Role 3: organizational filler/cup of coffee/replacement level (Brian Bogusevic)
Role 4: spot starter/backup player/division 2 starter (division 2 is a team not expected to compete for a world series) (Luis Valbuena)
Role 5: good division 2 starter/serviceable division 1 starter (one of the best players on a bad team, one of the worst starters on a good team) (Anthony Rizzo)
Role 6: division 1 player, occasional all-star (Starlin Castro before this year, the Cubs don’t have on anymore. Shin-Soo Choo)
Role 7: perennial all-star, occasional serious MVP contender, fringe HOF’er (Robinson Cano)
Role 8: perennial MVP contender, median HOF’er (Miguel Cabrera)
MylesQuote Reply
@ josh:
yeah, you won’t hear me complaining if AJ Cole is coming back.
GWQuote Reply
i think you are reading it right, myles. they have soured on span and will pick up dejesus’s option for next year.
GWQuote Reply
I’m not terribly thrilled about this trade either and don’t expect much of a return. I wouldn’t have minded DeJesus back in CF next year.
dmick89Quote Reply
yeah this is a pretty confusing trade for both parties. they’re really has to be more to this than just a $2.5m salary dump…
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
As far as making sense for the Nats: let’s not forget this is the team that signed Jayson Werth to a contract for roughly a billion dollars.
joshQuote Reply
I’m totally indifferent. They needed money, obviously.
joshQuote Reply
DDJ is slightly better than Span offensively, unless I’m reading it wrong.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
not sure how that’s relevant. dejesus has a cheap option, and that team really has to compete for the present. if they are really down on span’s bat, then the pickup makes a lot of sense
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
They’re maybe not the brightest. Their decisions may not always have a rational basis. Etc. Etc.
joshQuote Reply
As to why the Cubs would do it. No clue. Money seems to be all they got. Maybe they had a payment due. I’ve sold guitars I really liked before to make rent payments.
joshQuote Reply
also, werth is injury-prone, and harper has been pretty dinged up in his short career, as well, so depth is pretty important to them.
GWQuote Reply
You guys will feel silly when the PTBNL turns out to be Strasburg and Harper.
MishQuote Reply
josh wrote:
if this is the sole motivation behind the trade, then they’re in deep shit.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’m fine with that. It would at least be something interesting to talk about with this club.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
i don’t think they are the sharpest team in the game, but they are far from the worst. werth was an overpay to get him to leave philly and go to a bad team, with eyes on the arrival of harper and strasburg. they turned into a contender in short order. they have been really lucky in the draft, but have also made some smart picks along the way. the cubs can only dream about a stras/storen/harper/rendon stretch of picks.
GWQuote Reply
I’m with josh. I really don’t care. A DDJ is pretty easy to find on the FA market and the FO has shown so far that they can find players who can perform that had marginal roles on other teams (see Schierholtz/Feldman). Plus he has trouble staying healthy and is a good bet to continue regressing.
I mean, $2.5m doesn’t help you sign Robinson Cano. But it does help you in some capacity.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ GW:
And they got to pick those guys up by losing big time. Which is what the cubs are trying to do.
I really don’t care. I was trying to give a jokey response to what Myles said about the trade not making sense to the Nats. Fine, it makes sense and my joke is invalid. Fine job of killing the humor. I have a kitten, if you were hoping to strangle that as well.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
oh, please. if they were trying to lose big time they would look like the astros. they aren’t trying to do that, nor could they outlose the ‘stros if they tried. and the nats lucked in to two generational talents in consecutive drafts. if that’s the plan, you had better be right with your god before embarking.
GWQuote Reply
If this is a pure salary dump trade, you can forget all about Cano, Choo, Price, Stanton…they can’t afford anyone if they need to save 2.5 mil. Which I’d kinda be alright with, because hey, Javy’s not getting traded!
sitrickQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
It depends on what they get in return, but PTBNL’s usually aren’t all that good. If they get a good deal, fine. If they don’t, I probably won’t like it. I don’t like just getting rid of players and getting nothing in return when the player has value. A bad trade is a bad trade regardless of where you are in the standings.
I’m not saying this is a bad trade. I’m guessing it ends up being one, but it might not be.
dmick89Quote Reply
I agree with the consensus that, with the present data, this is a head scratcher. I don’t think that “it helps our draft position next year” is a valid reason to make a trade like this.
However, I do think that making room for Elroy Jimenez in our Opening Day OF is a valid reason. So, grain o’ salt.
(Seriously though, I think the FO has offseason moves in mind that can’t be made in the 2014/2015 offseason, so they’re probably not counting on ’15’s draft pick to be exceptionally valuable. This also could be part of a race for Rondon.)
MJKQuote Reply
@ GW:
They’re trying to medium lose. They want the losing dial set at about 7, 7.5. You can’t go Full-on Nats with an established franchise like the Cubs. Also, Wrigley is small and there are few places to hide. That 2.5 Mil is probably going into a panic room for when the Cubs announce next year’s roster.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
All trades are bad trades. This is an established fact. Any evidence to the contrary was PLANTED BY THE DEVIL.
joshQuote Reply
I’m going to go home and sob for three hours now over the loss of the nobody fucks with DeJesus memes.
joshQuote Reply
It’s generally been established as OV/ACB canon that the only good trade is a fire sale trade, no?
sitrickQuote Reply
MJK wrote:
Agreed. Not to mention, a bad trade is still a bad trade (if that’s what this is).
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh, so that’s what Role 7 is.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
i think it’s worth mentioning that the cubs seem to have a good working relationship with the nats (hairston, henry rodriguez, and now dejesus all happened really quickly), so it’s possible that they were just on the same page.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Considering how quickly this seemed to happen (no leaks that I’m aware of), I’d say there’s a pretty good chance they both were on the same page. Still not sure that means it’s a good one, though. We’ll have to see.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
yep
GWQuote Reply
josh wrote:
[img]http://www.legaljuice.com/cat%20shooting%20gun%20kitten%20kitty%20shot%20cute.jpg[/img]
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Be careful. That kitten has friends.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Doesn’t the player TBNL have to “not be on their 40 man roster?”
2883Quote Reply
@ 2883:
Pretty sure that is right.
dmick89Quote Reply
Does anyone think the Cubs might go after Kevin Slowey this offseason? He seems to fit the mold of pitchers the Cubs have been picking up lately (Nice K/BB ratio, decent FIP/xFIP, used to pitch for the Twins).
EdwinQuote Reply
@ 2883:
it’s not clear to me. leury garcia was the ptbnl in the alex rios trade and he was on the 40-man. he couldn’t have cleared waivers, right?
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
He cleared waivers http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=chicagowhite-sox&id=16864&city=chicago&src=desktop
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
thanks. my guess is that’s a courtesy move from other teams since the rangers would just pull him off and send him in the offseason if he was claimed.
GWQuote Reply
Now watch the Cubs score 12 tonight with this shitty lineup. They’re already 25% of the way there (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah there’s not any reason to piss another team off for nothing.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Shitty? Dioner Navarro is batting 3rd!
dmick89Quote Reply
Hoyer said money was the main factor in the trade. Wow.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/369565218760032256
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s disappointing and does not bode well for this offseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jed-hoyer-confirms-money-the-big-issue-in-david-dejesus-trade.html
I actually mean “shit” this time.
dmick89Quote Reply