I've been a bit under the weather the past week so I have read very little Cubs related news with the exception of what's been posted on this site. I know Berselius mentioned something about people on his twitter feed being upset at the Cubs for failing to complete another trade. If I understood him correctly, they argue that this nearly completed trade, along with that of Ryan Dempster to the Braves, might mean the front office is responsible.
Berselius rightly points out that it wasn't the front office that leaked the information, but the players. Carlos Marmol leaked it and so did Dempster. That being said, I am sympathetic to the arguments that Berselius may not be. I actually think it's a good thing these things have happened. It's not like other teams don't have players that leak information to the media, but what we've seen with the Cubs might indicate that they're constantly evaluating their options. This is much preferred to a front office that identifies a player it wants and moves in whatever direction needed to acquire him. Some deals are good. Some aren't. If a trade becomes undesirable, they should leave it on the table and move on.
I'm not really interested in further arguing that point at the moment. There's time for that later. For now, let's figure out what we know, think we know and what we don't know about what happened last night. If you'd like, you can say we'll talk about what we're sure about (facts), quite sure about (confirmed by enough sources that it is likely true) and what we don't know.
What we know
- The Cubs are required by Major League Baseball to assemble a team for the 2013 season. Nobody can say that MLB doesn't have a sense of humor.
- The Angels held a $15.5 million option for Dan Haren. If they declined that option, they were on the hook for the $3.5 million buyout.
- Carlos Marmol is under contract through 2013 and will earn $9.8 million next year.
- The Angels were trying to trade both Ervin Santana and Haren prior to the deadline to decide whether or not to exercise the options for each player (they traded Santana to the Royals).
- The Angels ended up declining the option opting instead to pay the $3.5 million buyout.
What we think we know
- The Cubs and Angels were discussing a trade involving Dan Haren.
- Carlos Marmol believed he had been traded to the Angels for Haren.
- The Cubs pulled out of the deal.
What we don't know
- If any money was involved in the trade
- Why the Cubs may have backed out
I'm sure I missed something, but I think that about covers it up. A lot of attention will be given to the final item. That's what I'm going to do. I obviously don't know why they did (that's why it's under "what we don't know), but there are a few possiblities more likely than others.
At the point the two teams were mostly in agreement, the Cubs would have been given access to Haren's medical records. It's entirely possible there was something there that led them to this decision. The best known example of this that I can think of is Angel Guzman. The Royals initially signed him as an amateur, but after a physical they found some sort of issue (defect?) in his right arm. They chose to terminate the contract and the Cubs signed him. Don't give me any of this "terrible decision" crap. It cost them nickels and the potential reward was huge.
Perhaps related to an injury, but probably not, maybe the Cubs just happened to see that he's been losing velocity and can barely hit 90 mph anymore.
That's not atypical, but just maybe it was enough to scare them off.
It's also possible the Cubs were wanting to sign Haren to an extension and learned that wouldn't be likely. Who knows? Maybe the Cubs really wanted to sign a guy to a longterm contract who can barely hit 90 mph. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs wanted to sign him to a 2 or 3 year extension, but anything longer than that was unlikely to begin with.
It seems to me the most likely reason the Cubs backed out is because they became confident they could sign him to a free agent contract. If the Cubs were relatively certain that the Angels would decline the option this makes a lot of sense. There's more than enough reason to think the Angels were going to do just that. They traded Santana for basically nothing. They were willing to do the same for the Cubs (sorry Marmol).
Had the Cubs traded for Haren, they'd be responsible for the $15.5 million he's owed. If he's a free agent, Haren won't earn as much money. If he was worth $15+ million, the Angels wouldn't be trading him for almost nothing. It's safe to say that no team in their right mind is going to value Haren at $15.5 million.
Not only can the Cubs save some money, they also get to keep Marmol. It's not like Marmol has much value, but he's another piece the Cubs can offer in another trade.
I'm sure some people think I've been too critical of the new front office, but here's one for you: I think the Cubs played this brilliantly. I think the Cubs were ready and willing to complete the trade if necessary. They'd worked out a trade and left it to the Angels to find a better one. If they couldn't, they'd come back to the Cubs and at least they'd end up with Marmol. However, seeing as they're now minutes away from the deadline to exercise or decline the option, the Cubs pulled out of the trade knowing he'd soon be a free agent.
It never made much sense to me why the Angels expected to trade either Haren or Santana. If they're going to decline the options, and all the available information said they would, why wouldn't a team just wait a few days and sign that player for less than what he'll be paid? They get to keep whatever they'd have included in the trade too.
I think the Cubs played this one about as best they could. They were willing to pull the trigger on a deal if they thought he'd be traded. Haren is still a good pitcher and one the Cubs would clearly like. They were in a position to acquire him having offered more for him than any other team. As long as they were still a possibility, the Angels wouldn't accept another trade without first seeing if the Cubs were ready to complete the trade. This gave the Cubs the opportunity to get Haren by trading them Marmol if they had to.
They went into this trade wanting Dan Haren to be a Cub and saw the clock ticking down at which point something did not make sense: trading a player so you can pay someone more than he's worth. The Cubs became confident they could still get Haren without having to do that and backed out.
Obviously I don't know if that's what happened. Of all the possibilities, that makes the most sense to me.
Comments
FWIW, it’s probably more like trading a player that you’re paying far more than he’s worth for a player that you would be paying not quite as much more than he’s worth.
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Nobody can say MB has a sense of humor. (dying laughing)
I’m glad we didn’t get into the “so-and-so national reporter does due diligence well and so would have been assured that his tweet would be accurate” discussion like occurred after Dempster. What we thought we knew the day after the summer trade deadline, vs what later came out, was pretty different, IIRC. So the post-mortem here seems pretty good to me.
SVBQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Guess I should refresh more often
SVBQuote Reply
Sorry I’ve been away so long.
I think that the truth is either you’re theory about ensuring he’s a FA, or that the medicals were scary. Either way, what I like about this interest is that it seems obvious to me that the Cubs are going to try and get a “lottery ticket” type of pitcher with high upside on a 1-2 year commitment, as well as an innings eater type like Feldman. The good aspect of this is that, altho the chances are slim, if the dude is awesome they may linger around .500 til June, at which point they might acquire more players. Otherwise, as long as the dude pitches good, they can sell him at the deadline. I almost completely expect them to acquire a pitcher via trade this offseason, using their free money. The Marlins apparently want to trade Josh Johnson to the Cubs. If the Cubs had Johnson, Haren, Garza, F7, Wood, plus Vizcaino coming along mid-year (assuming all are healthy), that’s a nasty rotation. Either way seems smart to me.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I love this plan! I’m excited to be a part of it! Let’s do it!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It was the medicals that caused the Cubs to pull out of the deal. No one else was willing to take a chance on him. GREAT NON MOVE BY THEO!!!
clyderQuote Reply
clyder wrote:
Where did you hear this? Unless there’s been some confirmation of this, why do you sound so sure? FWIW, there were other interested teams. Even if there weren’t, it hardly means that it was because of his medical reports. It could have been, as has been said, it was more about letting him enter free agency.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s a better way to put it.
mb21Quote Reply
@ clyder:
Nice to know you changed your name, Bubbles.
akabariQuote Reply
Also, it’s more like a NICE EVERY-GM-WOULD-HAVE-MADE-THE-SAME-DECISION NON MOVE BY THEO!!!
mb21Quote Reply
So I hear the Cubs traded Marmol for Dan Haren.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
False.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think it was probably the medicals. Right before it collapsed, couple of sources were saying it was all done, they were just reviewing the financials and medicals. Plus, don’t think it’s to the Cubs’ advantage to let him go to free agency. Sure, they could sign him cheaper, but so could a bunch of other teams, some contenders, and who’s Haren gonna pick?
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
MB21 wrote:
Terrible decision.
Also: greetings, programs.
fang2415Quote Reply
Also, for the record (since people too lazy to register can’t post in the cricket thread): cricket = baseball – 2 bases – having to run on a hit – foul lines + a physical object as the strike zone + required pitch bounce + tons of different jargon +/- a bunch of random exceptions to basic rules
fang2415Quote Reply
@ Carne Harris:
He’ll probably sign with the team that offers the most money like most free agents do. It does become a bidding war, but the trade for him was effectively a bidding war too. I doubt it was the medicals because there wouldn’t likely be anything in there that would make a team call of a trade. He was on the DL for lower back stiffness. From what I can find (didn’t look too closely), he never had an MRI. Aside from missing one start in 2010 due to a forearm injury, he hasn’t had any arm related injuries. The only trip to the DL was this past season. I just doubt there was anything in there.
If the trade was completed, a physical would have been done at which point calling the trade off would be because of the medicals. I just don’t think that’s likely. I actually think it’s more likely the Cubs learned about his velocity drop at a late stage in the discussion, which isn’t at all likely.
This isn’t to say what I thought in this article is correct. I really don’t know. It could be as simple as the Cubs changing their minds. It happens. There are lots and lots of near trades each season in baseball and few of them were called off because of medicals. I don’t think there’s a reason to think this one is different.
mb21Quote Reply
I think it’s also worth pointing out that it is rather alarming that the Angels would have been willing to trade Haren for Marmol. Even that trade alone is pretty bad unless the Angels know something about Haren that the rest of baseball does not. Teams do know more about their own players than others and it’s partly why re-signed free agents perform better relative to projections than those who switched teams. Teams sign the ones they think will be worth the money and let the others go. Those are the guys who hit the free agent market (plus others of course).
If the supposed deal included the Angels sending the Cubs money then I’d have become very concerned because that just doesn’t make sense. That the Angels would be willing to pay Marmol the same amount as Haren is messed up. That alone would probably make me pull out of the deal. Something is very wrong if the Angels are willing to do that.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
The ol’ too good to be true scenario eh. If that’s the case…then how can it not be a medical issue?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It probably would be if that was true, but I don’t think it would take medical records for a GM to figure that out. If you’re willing to pay Carlos Marmol $12 million and not willing to pay Dan Haren an additional $12 million, something is wrong. Any decent GM would run away as fast as he can.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Yeah, I can see that. I wonder what else could be wrong though that doesn’t involve a lingering phantom injury issue. PEDs?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
For the record, I’m talking about the Angels paying Haren an additional $12 million because they had to pay the buyout if they declined. They were only paying Haren $12 million more than they would if they declined the option.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think they were rumored to send the amount of the buyout over to the new team anyway similar to what they did with Santana, so I think your point holds and then some.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I hope you’re right, but I doubt it. It’s not a coincidence that Santana went to KC and Haren nearly went to the Cubs, two of the worst teams in baseball. Part of it is that those are two teams that can afford to take a flier on a pitcher, but part of it also is that those are two teams that aren’t overly attractive landing spots for free agents. Not only because they aren’t expected to compete, but also because they are expected to flip players at the trade deadline when they don’t. To think the Cubs assume they’re going to be able to sign him with all that against them, Haren pretty verbal about wanting to stay in California, and other competing teams out there driving up his price, seems much less likely to me than something arose in his medicals, especially with his velo drop this year.
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
If we’re all God’s children, what’s so special about Jesus?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I believe this is better philosoraptorized.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
So the Angels would essentially have been paying Marmol $13.3 million. Without even seeing the medical records that would tell me to run like hell.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Carne Harris:
Players say all sorts of things, but put dollar signs in front of them and they’ll change their mind. Most players sign with the team that offered the most money. Every year a bad team signs a free agent to a multi-year deal and every year this free agent could have signed with a contender, but chose instead to take the most money. Perhaps Haren is one who wouldn’t, but expecting him to not to do so is the equivalent of betting on the underdog. If the Cubs offered the most money, there’s a very good chance he’ll be a Cub. This is true of all free agents.
This is partly true because the MLBPA is going to be rather pissed off if a player does not do so.
I don’t know what Haren would do so all I’ve got is how most free agents behave.
mb21Quote Reply
AFL Rising Stars Game is on if anyone cares:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7617858&content_id=25466845
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Looks like the minor leaguers are being required to wear the Great Gazoo helmets these days.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ fang2415:
You forgot -obvious cause and effect logic
B/c I couldn’t understand why anyone was doing what they were doing at any given moment. Also, why the fuck did two batters come out? In case one gets lonely?
joshQuote Reply
So, Cam Newton: better than the team record, or overhyped?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I think that’s part of the game play. One batter is there to protect the wicket, and the other is the paired runner. They both have to get to the wicket zone safely in order for a run to be recorded.
/assuming we’re still talking about cricket
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Sometimes they would hit it and just stand there. I wasn’t sure what was going on there either. I went into it thinking I could follow it, but it was very much more confusing.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
One of the goals of the game is to score runs. The other is to protect the wicket. In both cases you want to avoid outs. Not running is basically their way of avoiding a TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
SK! Tell me this is real!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Tony Zych was hit hard in .2 innings in the AFL all rising stars game which is in MLB network right now.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Not quite as hard as the relief corps for the other team, it seems.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Zych gets the win, and a Giants closer seals the deal yet again.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
THere is certainly a village called Muff and plenty of dudes enterprising enough to form a diving “club”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/projecting-the-2013-cubs-bill-james.html
mb21Quote Reply