Where We Stand Now: ASB 2015

In Commentary And Analysis, Playoffs by dmick89

I figured the All Star break was as good a time as any to break out a new Where We Stand Now post. The Cubs sit in 3rd place in the NL Central, but 3rd place isn’t as bad as it sounds. They’re still a game up for the final Wild Card spot, but they’ve been a bit unlucky while the Cardinals and Pirates have both been a little lucky.

Team W L PCT RS RA
St. Louis Cardinals 56 33 0.629 355 264
Pittsburgh Pirates 53 35 0.602 356 292
Chicago Cubs 47 40 0.540 335 319
Cincinnati Reds 39 47 0.453 331 379
Milwaukee Brewers 38 52 0.422 360 409

Here are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order winning percentages. Descriptions can be found on Baseball Prospectus or briefly in this post from last month.

Team W1 L1 PCT1 RS RA Diff
St. Louis Cardinals 55.7 33.3 0.626 355 264 0.3
Pittsburgh Pirates 51.7 36.3 0.587 356 292 1.3
Chicago Cubs 45.4 41.6 0.522 335 319 1.6
Milwaukee Brewers 39.7 50.3 0.441 360 409 -1.7
Cincinnati Reds 37.7 48.3 0.438 331 379 1.3
Team W2 L2 PCT2 RS2 RA2 Diff
Pittsburgh Pirates 51.2 36.8 0.582 360 300 1.8
St. Louis Cardinals 51.3 37.7 0.576 370 312 4.7
Chicago Cubs 48.5 38.5 0.557 346 304 -1.5
Cincinnati Reds 41.7 44.3 0.485 358 370 -2.7
Milwaukee Brewers 37.5 52.5 0.416 341 409 0.5
Team W3 L3 PCT3 RS3 RA3 Diff
St. Louis Cardinals 51.5 37.5 0.579 378 317 4.5
Chicago Cubs 49.4 37.6 0.568 370 318 -2.4
Pittsburgh Pirates 49.4 38.6 0.561 364 318 3.6
Cincinnati Reds 40.8 45.2 0.474 364 386 -1.8
Milwaukee Brewers 37.9 52.1 0.421 335 398 0.1

The Pirates take over the Cardinals in the 2nd order winning percentage, but the 3rd order percentage is perhaps the best measure of how the teams have actually played. The Cubs have been unlucky (about 2 to 3 games worth of bad luck) while the Cardinals have been quite lucky (so have the Pirates). 3rd order winning percentage doesn’t really count, but it’s a promising sign anyway.

I’ve posted below the Wild Card outlook with PECOTA rest of season win projections.

2015 Season To Date PECOTA Rest of Season Real + PECTOA RoS
Team Division W L PCT W L W L PCT
Los Angeles Dodgers * NLW 51 39 0.567 44 28 95 67 0.586
St. Louis Cardinals * NLC 56 33 0.629 39 34 95 67 0.586
Pittsburgh Pirates ** NLC 53 35 0.602 38 36 91 71 0.562
Washington Nationals * NLE 48 39 0.552 42 33 90 72 0.556
Chicago Cubs ** NLC 47 40 0.540 41 34 88 74 0.543
New York Mets NLE 47 42 0.528 38 35 85 77 0.525
San Francisco Giants NLW 46 43 0.517 38 35 84 78 0.519
San Diego Padres NLW 41 49 0.456 37 35 78 84 0.481
Arizona Diamondbacks NLW 42 45 0.483 35 40 77 85 0.475
Cincinnati Reds NLC 39 47 0.453 35 41 74 88 0.457
Miami Marlins NLE 38 51 0.427 36 37 74 88 0.457
Colorado Rockies NLW 39 49 0.443 34 40 73 89 0.451
Milwaukee Brewers NLC 38 52 0.422 35 37 73 89 0.451
Atlanta Braves NLE 42 47 0.472 30 43 72 90 0.444
Philadelphia Phillies NLE 29 62 0.319 29 42 58 104 0.358
* = Division Winner
** = Wild Card Winner

 

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