Here we are at the end of January, trying to avoid work while awaiting the coming of Spring Training. We’ve talked at length about the tall mountain the Cubs must climb to not just be plucky underdogs but actually get into the postseason, and a lot of that is because of the barely above average offense they have constructed. There are likely ways to upgrade the roster come midseason, whether a call up or a trade, and there have been attempts to cobble together an “optimal” lineup from what we have to work with. I guess with what is available, with the expectation to just try to get better next year somehow while treading water this year, the lineup from the previous post is likely the best we can do for now.
I have seen a number of different lineup projections from various outlets and everyone seems to have their own idea of who might work best as a leadoff hitter, or they just decide to throw a guy there and hope it works. This is also motivated by the announcement that Dexter Fowler is retiring, and not so coincidentally, aside from Anthony Rizzo, Fowler was arguably the best leadoff hitter the Cubs have had in recent memory. Theoretically, it shouldn’t really matter who leads off because the lineup is a continuum that will continue to cycle throughout the game, but practically, a guy who can get on base, take the extra base, and generally set the table from that first plate appearance on is critical to an offense. I don’t think that type of player exists on this iteration of the Cubs roster, but someone has to bat first, so here we go.
For this exercise, I’m going to assume that the Cubs aren’t stupid enough to lead off with a pitcher now that Jon Lester is done (and you know, they have the designated hitter) nor any of the catchers because they’re not Jason Kendall (or even Willson Contreras) and you want those guys to have as few opportunities as possible to kill the rally (and I don’t mean with a homer). We can do this in sorta alphabetical order amongst the guys I think are most likely to make the team…
Cody Bellinger – Per his splits, he’s barely ever led off, and given his power potential and the high likelihood he probably won’t put the ball in play, let’s just say “no” to this one.
Ian Happ – Aside from the one season where he led off the entire regular season with a homer, I can’t recall a good memory of Happ as the leadoff option. I think he’s improved a bunch from both sides of the plate as a capable switch-hitter and not just a guy who bats righty every now and then, and has reduced his whiff rate significantly, but I think he should stay in the middle of the lineup (ditto Seiya Suzuki so let’s remove that possibility for now too). I wouldn’t rule it out, and Michael at BN has suggested Happ as the leadoff guy against righties while the other guy coming up does it against lefties…
Nico Hoerner – This is probably the best option now that I think about it. Nico has barely ever led off in his brief career, but he has good bat-on-ball skills, he seems to use all fields very well, he is pretty speedy when he’s healthy, and by default, there doesn’t appear to be any better options.
Eric Hosmer – one of the Marquee guys suggested it and I’m just going to say no, although as Berselius said on the Dreamcast one time, at least he can’t ground into a double play leading off. I’m just listing him here because someone who gets paid to do this stuff suggested it and I feel like it’s a bad idea.
Nick Madrigal – I desperately want to believe in Madrigal’s bat, but he is just such a limited player if the bat doesn’t play since he can barely play second base and a move to third base would expose the noodle arm. He also apparently increases his risk of injury because he runs like Barney from the Flintstones, and probably slower than they animated Barney on the old cartoons. *IF* the bat does play, at least he can get on base, but that might be a station-to-station strategy because I doubt he can be relied on to take that extra base consistently.
Dansby Swanson – Per his splits, Dansby has led off at times, more so than Bellinger, but his career stats at leadoff as well as last year’s stats suggest he doesn’t thrive in that role, so batting Dansby second as in most of the proposed lineups I’ve seen is probably the best.
Everyone else – Unless they have an insane Spring Training, I don’t think any of the other guys on the roster should bat leadoff, and arguably should be in Iowa. But the Cubs have to carry at least 13 position players so someone has to warm the bench, and we should reduce the chances that they’ll make an out. Of these guys, though, if he could ever stop striking out so much, Christopher Morel is probably the best option due to his positional flexibility, while the two lefties in Miles Mastrobuoni and Zach McKinstry would be the other options if they can reward the front office’s faith in their bats (at least until they’re optioned to Iowa or something).
So yeah, it’s probably Nico Hoerner ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Comments
Evan Drellich wrote a book about the Astros cheating scandal and it figures to be a doozy –> https://throneberryfields.com/2023/01/31/i-was-floored-it-was-a-massive-story/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Far be it from me to tell anyone what to believe, but please don’t convert to Madrigalism.
andcountingQuote Reply
Nick Ahmed chat today, must be nice to have the clout to get some guys to chat for your site –> https://live.jotcast.com/chat/live-chat-with-mlb-shortstop-nick-ahmed-14948.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
My philosophy is that if Nick Madrigal really is leading off, he’s either figured it out or the Cubs are completely fucked
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Those two outcomes are on extreme ends of the spectrum of possibility.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
I was thinking about it more and also because I previously put Madrigal at leadoff in my other lineup ideas because I just didn’t know what else to try since I figured the other good hitters need to drive in runs, but if the #1 guy barely ever gets on base then we might as well move everyone up. The other non-Nico options I’ve already discussed in this current post, but there is some truth behind the hyperbole. If Madrigal does what we think he might be capable of and hits for a .300 average (albeit with very little power and probably few walks if ever), then at least he represents a potential run. He isn’t exactly a superior defender nor does he run very fast, so that kind of profile suggests he should be a bottom of the lineup kind of guy to drive some of the previous guys in while getting on base himself rather than being straight leadoff, because a contact bat is good but you also don’t want to give that many PAs to that type of player, right? So if he becomes the true leadoff guy, it’s because he hits for a high average or they’ve just run out of options.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Could see him leading off as DH when you give Hosmer or Mancini a full day off.
However, I think this
is less true than normal this year and with this line up because we will be hoping the 8th and 9th hitters will manage to eke out a . 550 OPS. I assume those spots will be the Cs, Hosmer, Madrigal, and McKinstrey. Any one-out rallies after the 7th hitter will die (plus the old C hits into a 6-4-3 play). So Nico will lead off yet another inning.
BVSQuote Reply
BVS,
This was basically the feeling I had when I coached baseball (I didn’t tell the kids though) because if we didn’t score with the first five batters, we could basically anticipate four outs before we got to try again (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Something other than fascism brewing on Twitter:
The data seems to show that lower-arm-angle pitchers almost invariably have lower ERA than FIP, possibly due to FIP ignoring the consistently softer contact induced by submariners.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Weird arm angles probably make it harder to pick up the ball due to the funk from both the angle of delivery and whatever spin they’re throwing on the ball, hm!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
andcounting,
Rice Cube,
I do wonder whether weird arm angles are more prone to injury but I don’t know how to begin looking up that data
Rice CubeQuote Reply
In other news, MLB Network just got dumped by YouTube TV and Tom Brady allegedly retired again. Gisele might still be single though…and apparently still very tall.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
We kinda know this already, but what would new is the realization that the foremost predictive pitching stat undervalues pitchers with lower arm angles.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
We’re gonna need Will Carroll to consult on which pitchers can raise their arms above their shoulders.
berseliusQuote Reply
andcounting,
I assume this will be something the front offices have already asked the scouts to look out for, while they ask the medical staff to figure out how to keep these types of pitchers from breaking themselves because of a motion that might at first glance seem unnatural.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
berselius,
Since I’m not that kind of doctor, I don’t profess to knowing much more than that the foot bone is connected to the ankle bone, but what’s Will Carroll’s deal anyway? I don’t think he’s a doctor of anything…?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
This gif now available for overuse
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is kind of a critical point in MLB’s media trajectory. If they just hired a new guy to head up the management of their media interests, this is not a good start. I had hoped they’d make every effort to make their content as accessible as possible. If they could just see that all MLB content is advertising, they might learn to question the wisdom of making distributors overpay to carry it.
andcountingQuote Reply
andcounting,
Trusting MLB to do the right thing is probably a fool’s errand.
New stuff –> http://www.obstructedview.net/the-new-rules-and-player-health/
Rice CubeQuote Reply