Who is going to win: Cubs or Pirates?

In Commentary And Analysis, Playoffs by dmick89243 Comments

The Wild Card between the Cubs and Pirates is at 19:08 Central time. Look into that what you will. Or don't. I can't tell you what to do. The experts here at Obstructed View have picked tonight's winner for you. What do you say? Tell us in the comments.

dmick89: Cubs 2-0

The Cubs have lost 8 of 9 starts by Gerrit Cole, but he hasn’t gone up against a team with someone pitching like Jake Arrieta has been. Everyone else has failed against this version of Arrieta. Kris Bryant hasn’t played as well on the road and has looked pretty bad at the plate at times, but I think he makes an adjustment against Cole and takes him deep early in the game. I don’t think Arrieta will need anything except for maybe a clean 9th by Hector Rondon.

If this game is tied late, the Pirates have a pretty big advantage in my opinion. 

josh: Cubs

It will be a close game. But it's hard to bet against Arrieta. The Cubs are going to have to play smart and get a run or two early, or knock Cole out quick. I expect a low-scoring affair with many, MANY Ks.

Secretly I think the Pirates may win. They looked really good against the Cubs a week ago. And I don't trust our bullpen. But I'm a homer.

myles: Cubs 3-1

Just about anything can happen in a 1-game series, but Jake Arrieta is about the safest bet to shut down a lineup on any given day as exists in baseball these days. Pair that with a team too young to care that they are too young to be there, and I think the Cubs squeeze a victory from the grasp of a tremendously talent pitching staff and a potent, if boring offense.

Arrieta goes 8, Rondon goes 1

sitrick: Pirates

There's a good argument for the Cubs having the advantage in every aspect of this particular game. 2-1 Pirates in 11. Now is the winter of my discontent.

Just had a laugh thinking about the absolute worst case scenario.

Figure Jake goes 8 innings and feels something in his elbow pop around pitch 110, offense does nothing, javy breaks his nose diving into first for no reason, Bryant takes a line drive directly in the solar plexus, Soler's legs turn to dust fielding a routine popup. Coghlan hits a teaser rally homer to tie the game only to have Strop give up a 2 out walkoff grand slam in the 10th. Addison starts crying and Castro walks off the field giving everyone in the dugout the finger.

andcounting: Pirates

This pick is really just a passive-aggressive attempt at manipulating fate. If I'm being honest, I'd say I'd expect the Cubs to win 3-0 on homers by Schwarber, Castro, and Arrieta. But since I hardly ever speak honestly, I'll say the Cubs lose 10-9 to the Pirates on a Starling Marte walkoff. In a rare glimpse of honesty, I expect really great, heart-pounding, stroke-inducing baseball. I expect this game to literally dislodge a blood clot and cut off my brain's oxygen supply. Win or lose, I will likely lose the capacity to intelligibly react.

aisle424

There are three scenarios I can see happening:

1) Jake Arrieta is Jake Arrieta one more time and the Cubs scratch a run or two and win.

2) The game is a draw between the starters and the Pirates walk-off against our bullpen.

3) The Cubs bring their hitting shoes and kick the crap out of Cole.

The Cubs win 2 of those 3 scenarios so I'm picking the Cubs but bracing myself for option 2.

So, of course, the Pirates will destroy the Cubs to make me look stupid.

berselius: Cubs 1, Pirates 0, Ulcers 6

Arrieta cruises but runs into trouble in the 8th but gets bailed out by Strop. Rondon makes it interesting in the ninth but closes it out. Cubs run is on back to back Bryant and Rizzo doubles.

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Comments

  1. Author
    dmick89

    WaLi:
    Apparently the pirate strategy for Arrieta is being passed out on leaflets (dying laughing)o(dying laughing)

    (dying laughing) Really? Pirates fans are going to look dumber than Cubs fans ever have.

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  2. Josh

    dmick89: irate strategy for Arrieta is being passed out on leaflets (dying laughing)o(dying laughing)
    (dying laughing) R

    what’s the strategy “Try hitting the ball. Don’t get fooled when h throws one of those where you think it’s a strike but it’s not. Maybe glower? Has anyone tried glowering?”

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  3. Millertime

    How do you pass out on leaflets? That sounds dangerous, and in no way a viable baseball strategy.

    Also, the Cubs will win, because that’s just what they do now.

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  4. Not Jorge

    Josh,

    Even funnier. This is the FAN strategy. They’re doing something different every inning including chanting ARR-I-ETA, yelling BALL every time he throws a ball, etc.

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  5. Author
    dmick89

    And it’s a fan thing that still plans for Arrieta to be pitching in the 6th inning. I think Cole will still be pitching in the 6th, but I’m hoping they get him out of there before that.

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  6. Suburban kid

    Leaflet guy is like the nephew of the Pirates version of the It’s Gonna Happen Guy crossed with the Can the Cubs Mend My Broken Heart Guy.

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  7. GW

    Sportsbook has the Cubs to win at 55.5% after opening at 51.2%, with 69% of the money on the Cubs. I don’t have a BP subscription, but I bet they have better odds for the Pirates, since it always takes PECOTA a while to start believing in transformations like Arrieta’s. O/U is 6. For those who love Pavement (check) and lack a soul (debatable), I think the bet is the Pirates and the under.

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  8. WaLi

    GW,

    My website had Pirates +1.5 and O/u 5.5. Took both(just a few dollars) . Also had a weird bet runs + errors + hits o/u 20.5. Seemed like a no brainer under

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  9. Author
    dmick89

    GW:
    Sportsbook has the Cubs to win at 55.5% after opening at 51.2%, with 69% of the money on the Cubs. I don’t have a BP subscription, but I bet they have better odds for the Pirates, since it always takes PECOTA a while to start believing in transformations like Arrieta’s. O/U is 6. For those who love Pavement (check) and lack a soul (debatable), I think the bet is the Pirates and the under.

    I’d bet Pirates, but that’s just because there’s no way I’m ever betting on the team I want to win. 55.5% is too high, but I buy 51.2%. I think some projection I saw today had the Pirates at 51 or 52. That seems about right when you take HFA into consideration and assume Arrieta isn’t the greatest pitcher in history.

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  10. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    I’m assuming that the money moved the line. I can’t think of a game (that I cared about, at least) that’s seemed more like a toss-up than this one does.

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  11. uncle dave

    If my boss doesn’t get off the phone so I can get through the last conversation of the day I’m going to have to fucking kill him.

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  12. Smokestack Lightning

    Damn. Anybody else think Schwarbs should have been at second?

    If nobody else does then I don’t either.

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  13. Smokestack Lightning

    Pretty cool that Starlin smashed his way back into the lineup. I had him totally written off.

    And of course he grounds out to the P.

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  14. josh

    I have an mlb tv subscription but would have to login with my tv provider to see the game. The fuck. I have to pay twice?

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  15. cerulean

    josh:
    I have an mlb tv subscription but would have to login with my tv provider to see the game. The fuck. I have to pay twice?

    Use a VPN from outside the country. It’s the fucking cable cabal throwing its weight.

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  16. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I second this. 6 strikeouts and only 38 pitches through 3. Crazy.

    Been a long, long time since I’ve been this impressed with a Cubs pitcher.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    Thinking Jake’s gotta be going the distance unless the Cubs tack on another 2 or 3 runs, yes?

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  18. Smokestack Lightning

    (dying laughing) @ Sean Rodriguez. Sit the fuck down. He’s just trying to get somebody important thrown out.

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  19. Suburban kid

    dmick89,

    When he was punching the cooler, he was doing it wrong so his fists barely touched it. Not sure if that was cooler-punching incompetence or he was just doing it for show.

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  20. Suburban kid

    Announcers: “Jody Mercer is up. (A-Ram takes a pitch). That’s actually Aramis Ramirez. He came up with the Pirates, went to Milwaukee, and is now back with Pittsburgh for a shot at the postseason.”

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  21. cerulean

    I just realized on that replay that a player who started with Pittsburgh and then went to Milwaukee and is now back with Pittsburgh *failed to hustle down the line*. Lazy Mexican.

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  22. Author
    dmick89

    cerulean:
    I just realized on that replay that a player who started with Pittsburgh and then went to Milwaukee and is now back with Pittsburgh *failed to hustle down the line*. Lazy Mexican.

    (dying laughing)

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  23. cerulean

    dmick89:
    Even when Arrieta isn’t at his best like those couple of innings, he’s still awesome.

    Mark Prior is the only Cub pitcher in my lifetime that has done anything remotely close.

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  24. uncle dave

    I saw Clemens knock out the Mariners in 2000 and Verlander do the A’s in 2012, and you just knew that once you got behind you were done. Weird to have that guy on your team.

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  25. Author
    dmick89

    If the umpire can throw a pitcher out if he thinks he was throwing at a batter, how is it that Watson didn’t get ejected? I know umpires usually issue warnings first, but I have seen the occasional pitcher ejected without a warning. I know it’s a postseason game too, but that was an obvious example of a situation in which the pitcher should have been ejected. I don’t get it.

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  26. Author
    dmick89

    Clint Hurdle just made it sound as though he thought Arrieta intentionally threw at Cervelli. How any manager could think in this situation is just insane. He probably shouldn’t be an MLB manager.

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  27. josh

    Hey. Hey guys. Member when we were wondering if Schwarber was too fat or too not a defensive player to contribute to a major league team.

    That was awesome.

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  28. cerulean

    dmick89:
    Clint Hurdle just made it sound as though he thought Arrieta intentionally threw at Cervelli. How any manager could think in this situation is just insane. He probably shouldn’t be an MLB manager.

    That is just politicking. I imagine most managers in that moment would intimate such, whether they believed it or not.

    Now if he ordered the hit on Arrieta, that’s indefensible. But I doubt that.

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  29. Author
    dmick89

    josh:
    dmick89,

    Umpire discression, I guess. I bet about half the time he gets tossed for that. It was blatant.

    Yeah, that’s it, it was plainly clear he hit him intentionally. Automatic ejection if I understand the rules.

    I’m just glad that Arrieta didn’t try to get payback. He’s got all next season to do that.

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  30. josh

    dmick89,

    I think Maddon is too smart for that. That may be a time when a good manager does things behind the scenes without getting credit. Calm Jake down, remind him of his mission, promise to let him go as far as he could etc.

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  31. cerulean

    From ESPN

    Arrieta’s 11 strikeouts tied Kerry Wood’s single-game Cubs’ postseason record and matched the most by a pitcher in a winner-take-all postseason game. He joined Orval Overall (1908 Cubs), Sandy Koufax (1965 Dodgers), Justin Verlander (2012 Tigers) and Madison Bumgarner (2014 Giants) as pitchers with a 10-strikeout shutout in a postseason clincher.

    Bill James’ Game Score is a metric that measures pitcher effectiveness (usually on a scale of 0 to 100) based on innings pitched, strikeouts, runs, hits and walks allowed. Arrieta’s Game Score was a 90, the highest in a postseason game in Cubs history.

    It’s the 22nd postseason Game Score of 90 or better, the fourth since the start of the 2010 postseason when three pitchers (Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee) had games of 90-plus.

    Damn.

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  32. berselius

    Only complaint the whole game was not bringing in Rondon for the ninth, but even then ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

    Arrieta obviously the POTG, but wow at Bryant’s defense at 3b in the last few innings.

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