When the MLB strongarmed the NPB into this new posting system, we heard a lot of arguments as to why Tanaka would still be posted. 20 million dollars is a ton of money, even if it isn't the perhaps 75 million that the Golden Eagles were on track to get. However, as of late, the President of Rakuten hasn't really given an indication either way, with recent reports (since refuted in large part due to Brett at Bleacher Nation) saying he was NOT going to be posted. No one knows at this point. However, I'm certain that I wouldn't post Tanaka if I were in charge.
Pay me now or pay me later
What is the benefit to Rakuten if they post Tanaka this season? Surely, they get 20 million dollars. They also save the salary they would pay Tanaka, which is $8 million dollars. Let's say that a post in 2013 nets Rakuten $28 MM.
What is the benefit if they post Tanaka next season? I'd bet that even if Tanaka had a much-reduced effectiveness, he'd still get a $20MM posting fee. He'll still be entering his age-27 season, prime pitching years. With the exception of perhaps a TJS or other catastrophic injury (which he'd have to suffer in the year he's least likely to actually get it), The only cost in future earnings is the $8 million they'd have to pay him 2014. Do you know how I know that's a good deal for Rakuten (besides the fact that he's the best player on a defending Nippon Series champion)? Because they offered him that money. They could have paid Tanaka essentially whatever they wanted. Tanaka can't retire like Nomo did and defect, so he'd have to take the money. It's very hard to get actual payroll data for teams in the NPB, so I admit to some speculation on my part here, but if the question is simply "is Tanaka worth $8 million to the Eagles this season," the answer is almost certainly yes.
There's a time value of money aspect to this deal, but even if we took inflation to be 5%, that's only another million dollars that Tohoku Rakuten "loses" by waiting a year. I fail to see how the Golden Eagles post Tanaka in this situation….unless, of course, there are other motivations besides money. Reputation has a chance to supercede sound financial advice, but really, how often does that happen?
[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/2664e57f93e57341b6a82425ecc6783e/tumblr_mfgdvbf4YX1ryxt2no1_500.gif[/img]
Aisle424Quote Reply
I wouldn’t post him either and based on the latest reports, it doesn’t seem Rakuten will.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t know how Japanese player acquisition works. Do they have a draft? Do they just sign people? I assume there is some sort of free agency over there.
So assuming that free agency does exist, better Japanese players who have hopes of one day playing in the US may not sign with Rakuten if they are going to take such a hardline stance against the new posting rules.
Tanaka wants to be posted. Yes, he has very little actual leverage here, but there could be future ramifications to the team if they don’t allow him to go.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Nothing to do with anything, but do we have any way of getting the facepalm logo on an iphone case? Just curious.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
If you guys are still using cafepress it should be an available design option.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I get that, but is Rakuten acting any differently than other NPB team would? Would players have a reason to single out Rakuten as opposed to other teams, or is Rakuten doing what almost any other team would do?
I’d assume if a Japanese player is a free agent and is good enough to have a real shot at playing in MLB, they’d either just come over to MLB directly, or sign a short term “audition” deal. If they’re only 18 (or some other younger amatuer age), I’d think playing in MLB would be far enough away that they probably don’t care, and are more interested in playing in the NPB than worrying about getting to MLB.
EdwinQuote Reply
Can’t remember who made this comment a few days back, but I’d love to see Tanaka remain in Japan solely to put a thumb in the eye of MLB’s attempts to depress prices.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
we can probably create one in the store. iPhone 5? 5s? 1?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
GW and I agree with both of you.
dmick89Quote Reply
Or we could send you the png
dmick89Quote Reply
They will post him and get more than $20m with some under the table payments or something. Badler had an article with several ways Rakuten could get more than $20m.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing) 5S
sitrickQuote Reply
I think Wada can end up being a back-end rotation piece. Probably my favorite move of the offseason (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
FUCK
My major league equivalent site is now down. Ugh, I loved using that website.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
http://www.claydavenport.com/pt/WADA19810221A.shtml
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Do you want me to send you the image so you can create one yourself? I don’t even know what’s available since I’ve never looked into that stuff before. I’ve never found a case that I like so I just don’t use them. They’re either too bulky or ugly. If I used anything, it would be a wallet/case combo, but I’ve only found one of those that I like and it’s more than I want to spend.
dmick89Quote Reply
If I had to just spitball a projection for Wada, it’d be a FIP of 4.06, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9. Basically, Yovani Gallardo. If he can keep balls in the park, he’ll be a serviceable guy for sure.
MylesQuote Reply
Apparently, I’m way too high on Wada. Thanks for that, dmick.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’ve got the image, will try and get it to cafepress and see what the options are.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I think Case Mate makes custom ones too.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
Isn’t the plan to use him as a reliever? That’s what I assumed, because I think it will be ugly otherwise.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah, that’s the plan, but the Orioles originally signed him to start. If he’s just a lefty reliever, then he joins Russell, Wright, Rosscup, Hottovy, and the rest of the fungibles. In that case, he’ll likely never see time with Chicago.
MylesQuote Reply
I used SkinIt and like their custom cases
waliQuote Reply
I submitted a similar article entitled “Why I Couldn’t Post Masahiro Tanaka.” It was basically me explaining that I was not an executive with the Rakuten Golden Eagles, and thus I did not have the authority to do so. I’m glad you guys chose Myles’ post though, it’s probably better.
GBTSQuote Reply
football
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AT-V_Y832KA
Aisle424Quote Reply
Edwin wrote:
My understanding is that Rakuten was the only NPB team to vote against the new posting system.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Why I Wouldn’t Post As Masahiro Tanaka
by: Like You Care
I wouldn’t post as Masahiro Tanaka because there’s no way you’d believe an Asian would comment so much on football without referencing “Jap Plays.” No disrespect to the Orientals, btw.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Well, they are the only one with Tanaka.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yes, but it stands to reason that they have to think they’d eventually have a guy like Tanaka. At the end of the day, Rakuten is the only team making a stink about this. Whether Rakuten is right or wrong about the deal itself, if I’m a Japanese FA, I might think twice about playing for a team that may not post me to MLB if I’m good enough.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I missed this comment earlier, but the thing is, this affects so few players (only 3 so far), that it’s hard to believe any player would be looking that far ahead. This is less problematic from Rakuten than the occasional player who wants to be traded in MLB and is not. Say Starlin Castro comes and says he wants to be traded. The Cubs probably wouldn’t do it and it won’t have any affect on them signing players in the future.
I think this comes down to whether or not Rakuten can get more in surplus value by keeping him or taking $20 million. I don’t think there’s an easy answer to that, but I’d lean towards getting more value out of keeping him, but I know next to nothing about NPB.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
This deal is only in place for 3 years.
dmick89Quote Reply
Also, the other teams were in favor of this because they didn’t have Tanaka and don’t want Tanaka in the league. Other teams have apparently said they’d be willing to give Rakuten some money to post him. They want him out of the league so they don’t have to face him. Strong incentive to vote yes.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Why would it be a strong incentive to vote yes if a yes vote would lead Rakuten to not post him?
Ideally, I would think, the former posting system would benefit them now (Tanaka leaves) and later (they’ll get maximum dollars for posted players of their own). There might be other incentives involvd to vote yes, but getting Tanaka out isn’t one of them.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ fang2415:
Eh, not too many remember Don Adams and if we are comparing the two, Steve Carell has had a much better career. Adams was a one-part guy – his character is remembered but not really him, the actor. I’ve liked Carell in at least two different roles so he wins and I imagine he’ll be remembered in 2056 (but not much longer after that).
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Don Adams? He’s been dead for 8 years!
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
DON’T TELL ME DON ADAMS HAS BEEN DEAD FOR 8 YEARS!
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
But… Inspector Gadget! And Tennessee Tuxedo! He had range!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Don Adams playing “Maxwell Smart” before Get Smart!:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hd2e_tRBlY
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Doesn’t a player have to ask to be posted?
If so, by not posting him this year (when he asked) is Rakuten taking a bit of a chance that Tanaka will NOT ask to be posted next year which is the last year of Rakuten control over him?
From Tanaka’s perspective it would be a bit of a gamble to pitch next year in Japan as well, but then he would be a free agent and American clubs wouldn’t have to pay to negotiate with him so theoretically some of that $20 million posting fee would go to him in the form of an increased free agent contract. This gamble would also be offset some by the fact that he will still earn $8 million next year in Japan anyway.
If this happens then Rakuten gets nothing for him (other than 2 years of service at $8 million dollars each).
JimLQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Pretty sure that’s Sheldon Leonard on the right. For years, I only knew his name as a producer of the Dick Van Dyke Show (and other early 60s programs). Then around 2005 when I discovered the Benny show, I found out Leonard had been an incredibly great radio actor before that. His recurring character on that show — the racetrack tout — was brilliant and hilarious. Did I post that out loud?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
It’s that magical time of the year where we revisit the Jack Benny show!
This whole thread has taken me down a serious wikipedia rabbit hole. Tennessee Tuxedo (which wikipedia insists was wildly popular in Iran) —> Deputy Dawg (which I spent most of 1996 watching Mandarin dubs of, and was once featured in an episode of “Miami Vice”) —> Pixie, Dixie and Mr. Jinx (which wikipedia says was dubbed into Spanish by having the three characters speak in Mexican, Cuban, and Andalusian accents, respectively) —> oh shit, I still have work to do…
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’ve assumed, and maybe I’m wrong, that this offer by MLB was the last one they’d offer. Someone (can’t remember who) reported that this was MLB’s final offer and I think the other owners just wanted to get a deal in place so that he could go.
I don’t think declining Tanaka’s request is going to have a future impact on them if that’s what they do. I’d assume it’s like MLB and players sign for the most money (most of the time). MLB teams do stuff that piss players off all the time and to my knowledge, it’s had no impact. I could be wrong here too and if I am, then it comes down to how much that could potentially cost them and the difference in his surplus value and what they’d get in a posting via.
When the deal was first reached I didn’t think they’d post him and a day or so later I thought it likely they would. Now I think it’s likely they won’t, but it’s clearly still a possibility and won’t be surprising. I think MLB will be very surprised if he’s not posted and if that’s the case, I’d hope Selig would rip this agreement up and get a new one for one year. If the agreement costs MLB even one player of this caliber, it’s bad for baseball and Selig should step in.
He won’t.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
The other teams agreed to this system because the alternative was no agreement, meaning tanaka does not get posted. The new system also screws rakuten out of 50ish million dollars, so it’s not hard to see how every team but rakuten was in favor of this.
JordanQuote Reply
@ JimL:
I don’t think he can refuse to be posted, but he can refuse to sign a contract with any MLB team which would be the equivalent, I doubt he’d do that given hed still at least have multiple 100 million dollar offers and would only gain at most 20 million from waiting another year.
I don’t know much about NPB and I’ll look this up but I thought I read somewhere that he will be an NPB free agent next year. If this is the case, I think it becomes a no-brainer that he gets posted otherwise Rakuten gets nothing but a year of an ace, and based on the salaries I’ve seen in the NPB, 20 million is worth a lot more than an ace at 8 million. It seems like only the best and very few NPB players get over 5 million USD (many of them relievers, the SABR revolution hasn’t reached Japan I guess). So basically 20 million can get you 4 star quality players for a year, not to mention the 8 million saved.
I don’t think I agree that it’d be nice if he didnt get posted. The deal the MLB cut seems stupid but it does put more money into the hands of the players and less into the owners, which is good to me. couldve been done better perhaps but this is ok. If the Rakuten owner put all the posted money back into the team, that might be nice, but I don’t really trust owners. I think the more money that goes to the players the better. More incentive for young players to play the sport which increases the talent level in the sport which gives us all better baseball. Also, I like watching good pitchers and Tanaka is that and I will be able to watch him if he’s in the US and not if he’s in the NPB so there is that too.
Andrew JQuote Reply
@ Andrew J:
He is a free agent in Japan, but I believe Rakuten would be the team to post him next year and not a potential suitor. Not sure about that. Haven’t found anything to verify that, but from what I read that is the case.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
The whole story about the other NPB clubs voting on the agreement to screw Rakuten makes no sense. That seems like a perfect example of cutting off one’s nose to spite their face.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Chief aka Suburban kid>
And … loving it. One of my favorite sitcoms.
cwolfQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I disagree because it only hurts a very small amount of teams. I could be wrong but I believe Tanaka is only the third $20M+ player so it’s not like that many teams benefit from the big posts. I wonder how much the posting system has affected things though. I wnoder if Daisuke’s team was like the dodgers or yankees for a couple years. The value of a win is much lower in the NPB so I wouldnt be surprised if that influx of cash is a real game-changer.
Andrew JQuote Reply
uncle dave wrote:
Yup
http://youtu.be/miAlz1lCgZ4
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ cwolf:
Just watched an episode for the first time in forever becuase of this thread, and it occurred to me how the humor, although considered kind of dumb back then, is very similar to today’s humor. Smart is a moron, but a part of him knows he’s a moron even if another part of him doesn’t. There’s always a little surprise somewhere in each episode too. The one I watched, Johnny Carson made a cameo as a customs officer on the Orient Express as the train entered and immediately exited Liechtenstein. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Andrew J:
I think that cash would be a game changer in most situations, but so is Tanaka. He’s going to generate a lot of money for Rakuten. What’s more: the money or the surplus value? That’s the question and I don’t know.
dmick89Quote Reply
Youk —-> Rakuten
Kind of surprised he didn’t get a major league deal with someone. Sucked last year, but was dealing with back issues.
GWQuote Reply
Choo —–> Rangers
7/????
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
@ Smokestack Lightning:
130.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Nice little contract.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Well.
MylesQuote Reply
I just got to the fifth season of Breaking Bad and now realize where some of your prior avatars came from.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Re: Get Smart…while it had jumped the shark by that point, the episode where 99 was in labor and Max was occupied trying to fight KAOS agents was one of my favorites.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Any ideas or opinions how the Cubs minor league log jam at third base is going to play out?
I know Bryant will probably end up playing OF when he reaches the majors, but I think they want to leave him at third for as long as they can in the minors (at least until he shows he is not capable of playing the position).
Mike Olt ended last year at AAA, Christian Villanueva ended at AA, Kris Bryant ended at high A, and Jeimer Candelario ended at low A.
Bryant probably doesn’t need to go back to high A (especially given his AFL performance) but there isn’t anywhere else to promote him to. Villanueva probably needs another year at AA (at least to start). Olt could do everyone a favor and have a good spring and make the major league club but does that mean Bryant jumps all the way up to AAA? That seems unlikely. If Olt makes the big league club do you promote both Villanueva and Bryant (to AAA and AA respectively) at the start of the year? What if Olt can’t hack it and needs to be sent down in May or June? You can’t then demote the other two.
Basically the problem is both Bryant and Villanueva should ideally be starting the year at AA. Obviously Bryant is the better prospect but Villanueva is still enough of a quality prospect that you do not what to de-rail his development either. Bryant could be moved to the outfield, but then they would be giving up hope of him developing as a 3B (which is more valuable).
Hanging over all of this is Olt and his eye issues.
Too many decent prospects at one position is a good problem to have, but it is a problem none the less.
JimLQuote Reply
I think Villanueva starts at AAA and Bryant at AA. No idea where Olt starts, but at this point the most exciting thing the Cubs could do is see if he can set the single season strikeout record.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think Olt needs to be given every opportunity to win the third base job in spring training. The vision issues may or may not be fixed, and contact issues may well destroy his career a la Brett Jackson, but with all the guys coming up behind him we need to find out what we have in Olt if only to maximize his trade value. It’s not like this team is planning on being competitive so this is an experiment they can afford to have.
JordanQuote Reply
@ Jordan:
I agree, but I’ve got a question for you: at what point would they abandon that idea if it appears it isn’t going well? Me? I’d just give him the entire season regardless of his production. If you’re comfortable with that, do they move Vizcaino to 2nd and trade Barney? I’d probably do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
I actually thought they’d they’d trade Olt this winter, but I’m not sure about that now. Wouldn’t surprise me, but it’s becoming less and less likely.
dmick89Quote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s crazy money for Choo.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Vizcaino? Arodys? I had no idea he was an infielder before hahaha. I’d certainly be entertained 😀
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing) thought I wrote Valbuena.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think I want to see Olt at third, Valbuena/Murphy platoon at second, Barney on the bench. Assuming the first three guys don’t suck as bad as Barney.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I really really REALLY want Olt to win the 3B job out of spring training and move Valbuena to 2nd. I’ll be happy with any sequence of moves that puts Barney on the bench, basically.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Mel Blanc is one of my favorite people ever.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’d trade Barney rather than having him on the bench. He has to have some value. A few teams have been interested. I don’t expect much.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t know much about Olt’s defense but I’d platoon Murphy Valbuena and Barney at 2nd until the late innings and then end with Valbuena at 3rd and Barney at 2nd. I bet Barney has a better year this year, btw.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
From what I’ve read, my impression of Olt is that he is a very good fielder probably better than valbuena.
@ dmick89:
I don’t think the cubs could get anything back for barney in a trade. I only base this on the fact that I’d be pissed if the cubs traded anything more than a fringe roster guy for a guy like Barney. To me, wherever he plays, he should be a bench guy and a late inning replacement. He might as well do that with the cubs. That way at worst there is decent infield depth in case of injury
Andrew JQuote Reply
I actually really like Barney. He’s entertaining as hell to watch play 2B and generally seems like a cool guy. I do wish he didnt move to second though. I think he could be a very good SS. Maybe not elite, but pretty good. I think if he were an above average defensive SS, he would be a starter on a decent team without a star at SS.
Andrew JQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I really need to get Boras to represent me.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Having an OBP guy on a team like Choo is would be a really great asset. But I gotta think that is one ugly contract in years 6 and 7 at ages 37-38. Hopefully for Texas’ sake, OBP will age better than other things.
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t think you can give Olt the entire year at third if he’s struggling badly, even on a bad team. I’d like to see them open the year with him there with Valbuena starting a couple times a week against tough righties. Give him half a year and swap him with Villanueva if he’s doing well at Iowa. However it plays out i think either Olt or Villanueva and maybe both have to be traded sometime in the next year if you’re convinced Bryant is the long term answer at third. Olt’s value has taken a hit with his struggles this year so I don’t think you’d get much for him now. Baez/Bryant are coming fast so I think you need to find out what you have in Olt if only to increase trade value. He’ll be 26 next year and I don’t think more time in AAA does him much good.
As for Barney, I think you have to keep him around if/when he loses the starting job as you likely won’t get much in a trade and someone on the roster other than Castro has to be able to handle short.
JordanQuote Reply
@ Jordan:
Fair points. Another question, if we keep Barney around, do we also use him as a defensive replacement at SS or are we still hoping Castro improves his defense?
dmick89Quote Reply
Wouldn’t the ideal situation be one in which Baez can play SS better than Castro and the Cubs move him to 2nd base? I’ve always thought CF would be a better position for him due to his plus speed, but I’m far from convinced he could transition to the outfield. I’ve been hoping for an infield of Bryant, Baez, Castro and Rizzo, but even though the word on Baez’s defense is it’s been better than expected, I haven’t heard any glowing reports there.
dmick89Quote Reply
So no one wants to win the NFC North? Sorry, CHI and GB, one of you has to this weekend.
It seems the seeding rank for the 4 and 5 seed in the NFC is:
1. PHI
2. CHI
3. DAL
4. GB
And whoever wins next week could play SEA, CAR, NO, SF or ARI, depending.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I’m gonna feel so fucking smart when Josh Vitters sneaks up on everyone and rakes in left.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
As long as he and the other grounds crew memebers keep the field looking good, I have no problem with that.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
(dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
fucking (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
[img]http://gifs.gifbin.com/1233928590_citizen%20kane%20clapping.gif[/img]
sitrickQuote Reply
49ers can get the #1 or still miss the playoffs.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
…on the last Monday of the regular season.
Since the first round matchups are still so murky, I’ll just rank the possible opponents for SF:
1. DAL – I’d hate for all the faget Cowboy fans that live around here to have more scoreboard on me. That defense sucks and they’re the least disciplined team still alive, but they can move the ball on anyone. Romo gets a lot of shit for his INTs, but a LOT of them aren’t his fault. He’s a premier QB. Anything can happen in one game, and DAL might be the epitome of that logic.
2. PHI – As I’ve said before, there’s a certain type of defense that can shut down Chip’s offense. SF has that defense. Still, it only takes a few plays to blow a game open…and PHI runs a lot of plays. That defense is hitting its stride too. PHI could be a dangerous team if they make it in.
3. CHI – Another team that can move the ball on anyone, including SF. Their defense just doesn’t match up well with SF’s offense.
4. GB – Against Flynn, this is a cakewalk. If Rodgers plays at 85% or better, it gets a little trickier.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
(dying laughing) Comment of the year
BerseliusQuote Reply
Update on the FA contest –
1. Tommy ($33)
2. Myles ($41)
3. srbutch5 ($42)
I win if Tanaka’s post + contract exceeds $143 MM. If it’s $96 MM – 143 MM, Tommy wins (he has tiebreakers with a perfecto on the Navarro contract). If it’s under $96 MM, Enrico Palazzo wins.
MylesQuote Reply
The single closest non-Dioner guess was srbutch, who put a $155 on Tacoby Bellsbury.
MylesQuote Reply
The worst was exhoosier, who put a $50 MM on Choo. Second place was Berselius, who put a $175MM number on Cano.
MylesQuote Reply
These are always really good: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/early-look-at-the-nfl-draft-b99168238z1-236899801.html
The only two things I take issue with:
When I think of pocket passer, I think of Peyton Manning. Bortles is more Luck/Locker than Manning/Brady. And Bridgewater’s an athlete, but he’s more like Aaron Rodgers in the pocket.
and
Disagree on Dennard. I think he’s the best CB to come out of the last three drafts.
Like You CareQuote Reply
I may have asked this before, but are there any safeties in the draft that have a chance to be something special in the NFL?
EdwinQuote Reply
This is a weak draft for safeties, imo.
FS
Clinton-Dix, Alabama: Pretty much the only CF type. Most likely to be the top S out of this draft, but I’m not totally sold on him yet.
Terrence Brooks, FSU: This guy is a player. He’ll be knocked for his size, but he’s always around the ball. Good instincts and physical.
SS
Deone Bucannon, WSU: Good range for this position, but he’s more of a box safety, imo.
Ahmad Dixon, Baylor: Tremendous athlete. Needs discipline (technique, recognition and after the whistle).
Craig Loston, LSU: Similar to the other two guys here, but not as athletic. Good value.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Ryno, the Bears defense needs a complete rebuild. They had some pretty bad defensive draft picks in the past couple of seasons and Tucker doesn’t seem to be the answer. There should be plenty of 3-4 DCs available next year if the Bears want to go that route. Is there enough in this draft for the Bears to start a transition into the 3-4? At this point, McClellin isn’t a hand in the dirt player. He needs to play in a two-point stance to be successful in my opinion. Re-signing Melton should be a priority for them and he should be able to play the 5 tech and they currently have only one CB under contract and need upgrades at both safety positions. What could be available to the Bears in the early rounds to help a possible transition? Combined with free agency, the Bears could do this in a single offseason. What do you think?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
It would probably take a year (draft to draft) to completely transition the defense (acquiring the right personnel and everyone learning a new role). That said, CHI does have quite a few pieces already in place, so a good defensive off-season likely gives the team enough defense to stay competitive with GB when Rodgers comes back.
By position…
NT
I liked Paea as a 3-4 NT out of college. He probably doesn’t have the size to two-gap, but that’s not as important these days. If he can hold two blockers long enough to stunt an OLB into the A gap, that’s enough. I don’t know much about Landon Cohen, but depth is important.
Draft possibilities: Louis Nix, ND (1); Dan McCullers, Tenn. (3); Ryan Carrethers, Ark. St. (4)
Nix is a monster. Poor man’s Wilfork, imo. I wouldn’t waste a high pick here, though. Look for a late-round guy.
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5T
Here’s the key position. Melton is priority 1 for this team. He might struggle initially moving from penetrating 3T to 5T (loses some of his speed advantage and his responsibilities increase), but he’s talented enough to do what Watt does in HOU (more direct play disruption rather than tying up blockers). Peppers and Wootton should add 10-15 pounds of muscle in the off-season. If they do, there would be worse three-man lines than Peppers/Wootton – Paea – Melton.
Draft: Stephon Tuitt, ND (1); Ra’shede Hageman, Minn. (1); DaQuan Jones, Penn. St. (2); Josh Mauro, Stan. (3)
Here’s where you draft high. You can’t draw a 5T better than Tuitt and Hageman. If you’re going 3-4, you need one of those guys.
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There’s around a 0% chance Peppers is a Bear next year, FYI
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Then Wootton adding weight and drafting AT LEAST one 5T would be mandatory to switch to a 3-4.
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OLB
Looking at CHI’s roster, I wonder if they aren’t already planning to incorporate more 3-4 looks into the defense. David Bass, Shea McClellin and Cornelius Washington are all guys I had pegged as ideal 3-4 OLBs in the last two drafts. They’re set at that position.
Draft: Trent Murphy, Stan. (1); *Kony Ealy, Mizz. (1); Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas (2); Aaron Lynch, S. Fla. (3)
Barr and Mack will be long gone, so these are the guys to focus on.
*Ealy to CHI makes so much sense regardless of scheme. Bears fans should start watching film on him now.
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I kinda put all my eggs in the “bring back Brian Urlacher and turn him into a football playing Cyborg” basket.
EdwinQuote Reply
I give up. That CHI defense is a fucking mess.
If I were the GM, here’s what I’d do with that team:
1. Let Cutler walk. He’s a good QB, but they need that money elsewhere.
2. Sign TJ Ward. He’ll cost, but CHI’s secondary needs so much work.
3. Sign the best value CB available. Chris Harris would be ideal, but I don’t know that DEN will let him go.
4. Let Peppers go.
5. Tell Cory Wootton to eat up and hit the weights.
With the pieces CHI has on defense, I’d switch to a 3-4. They’d need to add a 5T, ILB and CB at least to be competitive. For me, it comes down to this: CHI needs a DE. The value is better, imo, in finding a DE to play in the 3-4 over the 4-3.
Draft (based on nfldraftscout rankings):
1. Stephon Tuitt – Tuitt, Paea and Melton is a formidable front 3.
2. DeOne Bucannon, S, WSU – Safety becomes a strength when paired with Ward.
3. EJ Gaines, CB, Mizzou – Fierce CB. I love this kid. He completely shut down Mike Evans.
4. Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson – Trestman would make this kid a household name.
5. Lamin Barrow, ILB, LSU – Raw, but looks the part. His initial role would be to consume blockers and let Bostic make plays
ROLB – Bass
RDE – Melton
NT – Paea
LDE – Tuitt
(dying laughing)B – McClellin
CB – Harris
CB – Gaines
S – Ward
S – Bucannon
Offense basically stays the same with McCown starting until Boyd is ready to step in.
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I’d rather the Bears keep Cutler. He might be expensive, but I think it’s worth it. I think it’s too small a sample size to pencil in McCown as a legit QB you want starting 16 games, and the track record of QB’s taken later in the draft isn’t that great. Even with Trestman being a QB guru, I’d rather him work with Cutler than assume he can turn any draft pick into an NFL starting QB.
I guess the short version is I’d rather risk overpaying Cutler than risk going back to the QB carousel the Bears used to have, even having a coach like Trestman.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Edwin:
It’s a risk either way. Cutler will be 31 when the draft rolls around, so you’ll be back on the carousel soon anyway. The choice is:
McCown, draft QB and 1-2 FA defensive upgrades
Cutler, McCown and the draft pick.
That defense is awful. It needs so much help that they’ll need to dip into free agency to fix it by next season. As long as Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett and Forte are healthy, McCown can drive the offense just fine.
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Ryno, that is great analysis. I agree with everything you put down here today. Regarding Cutler walking, I think it’s the only play. I think McCown has shown that this offense revolves around the weapons, more than it does the QB. For the Bears to give Cutler $15 million or more a year is careless. Cutler just isn’t good enough to warrant that pay day. This Bears team would probably be fighting for a bye if the defense wasn’t a steaming pile of shit. The defense is the reason this team probably won’t make the playoffs and all available resources should go into rebuilding that with re-signing Slauson and finding a C as the only real need on offense.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Thanks. That’s my take as well. The OLine will improve. Forte still has a few productive years left. The receiving options are all beasts. All the QB has to do is recognize the defense, make the right reads and get the ball to his playmakers with room to run. The offense is top 5 in football and simply needs to be reloaded at times.
The defense gives up 6.2 yards per play, which is the worst in the NFL. It needs impact players all over, and FA is the only way to add that quickly.
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@ Edwin:
That’s awesome. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
And now Romo is out for the season.
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I don’t know if it’s resolving cognitive dissonance, but the DAL fans are now saying Orton’s probably better anyway.
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New Christmas Shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/javier-baez-not-the-only-baez-cubs-fans-should-root-for.html
Aisle424Quote Reply