Why the hell do people care if so and so plays in September?

In News And Rumors by dmick89Leave a Comment

I’ve seen a lot of comments lately from Cubs fans upset that the Cubs are still playing the veterans (on other sites). Of course they are. What young player has pushed a veteran out of a job? Bryan LaHair isn’t young so let’s stop with that. Yes, I think he’d be as good as Pena, perhaps a bit worse, but he’d cost league minimum. We don’t need to see what he can do everyday in September.

Anyone remember what Ronny Cedeno did in 2005 the last time he was called up? He hit .385/.467/.423 and earned the every day job in 2006. Yeah, that worked out well. Using that to estimate his ability is so much better than using the previous years in the minor leagues.

Anyone remember what Ryan Theriot did at the end of the 2006 season to earn a spot on the 2007 roster? He hit .347/.423/.537 in August and September. Once again, using a small sample and ignoring everything else is just plain dumb.

Or Gary Gaetti who hit .320/.397/.594 after the Cubs acquired him in August, 1998. He was re-signed based on that and completely ignored was the 107 OPS+ with the Cardinals in 1998 and 85 OPS+ he posted in 1997.

These are small samples and if you base decisions on small sample performance you are doing it wrong. Who exactly do the Cubs have should be benched right now? Name one team that just benches productive veterans at the end of the season in favor of 28 year old career minor leaguers.

Has Tyler Colvin and his 42 OPS+ earned playing time over Marlon Byrd‘s league average OPS+ (101)? Has 29 year old Luis Montanez and his 76 OPS+ earned more playing time? Has Tony Campana? Have any of them earned the playing time over Alfonso Soriano? Carlos Pena has a 126 OPS+. What exactly has he done to deserve being benched?

If you want the Cubs to just bench a guy like Pena, you do realize that it’s going to be nearly impossible for the Cubs to attract any free agents. If the team sucks and even if they’re playing well, they get benched. Albert Pujols could have a 200 OPS+ and Cubs fans would him benched in favor of the next 30 year old 1st base prospect. It’s fucking ridiculous.


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  1. binky

    Quade has been doing an okay job of working in the younger guys. He still wants to win. It’s still more fun to win for everyone, fans and players included.

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  2. mb21

    [quote name=josh]Quade has been doing an okay job of working in the younger guys. He still wants to win. It’s still more fun to win for everyone, fans and players included.[/quote]There was a time where I just wanted young players to play regardless, but they have to earn it. It was silly for me to think that they should be treated differently than others. If they want to play, earn it. Take someone’s job. They’re not giving it to you and the coach should give it to you either.

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  3. binky

    [quote name=mb21]There was a time where I just wanted young players to play regardless, but they have to earn it. It was silly for me to think that they should be treated differently than others. If they want to play, earn it. Take someone’s job. They’re not giving it to you and the coach should give it to you either.[/quote]The only argument the other way would be if it was someone like BJax v. a guy like Sori, who the Cubs had decided to offload. If you want to get a glimpse of the future, fine, but right now the Cubs are in a position where what future they have is a few years off and they’re going to need major trades and free agents to be competitive next season.

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  4. binky

    If LaHair earns his way onto the team next year with consistent production, great. But he’s not going to be the Cubs 1B 10 years from now.

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  5. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]There was a time where I just wanted young players to play regardless, but they have to earn it. It was silly for me to think that they should be treated differently than others. If they want to play, earn it. Take someone’s job. They’re not giving it to you and the coach should give it to you either.[/quote]Just to play devil’s advocate, how can they earn it if they don’t play?

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  6. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ACT]Haven’t you heard? Pena is batting under .200 with runners in scoring position! Play the kids (i.e. the guys approaching 30)![/quote]That’s the funniest part of this sentiment among Cub fans. Most of the “kids” they usually want to see play are over 25. (dying laughing)

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  7. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=BrettBN]I’d like to see DJ LeMahieu get a few starts at 2B. That’s only one that gets me irked.[/quote]He’s probably a worse defender than Barney, and until he shortens up that swing, he won’t be any better at plate.

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  8. GBTS

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He’s probably a worse defender than Barney, and until he shortens up that swing, he won’t be any better at plate.[/quote]
    Tables ——-> turned

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  9. Rice Cube

    [quote name=AndCounting]{GIF of person clapping.}[/quote]

    I think Quade has to play to win to try to keep his job and/or audition for the next job so I don’t really mind the lineups he posts anymore.

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  10. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Just to play devil’s advocate, how can they earn it if they don’t play?[/quote]I don’t mean just earn it at the big leagues. I mean earn it over a period of time much larger than 1 month. I don’t care whether that’s in the minor leagues or the big leagues. Brett Jackson is a guy who earned some playing time, but the Cubs were careful with him because of service time (as they should have been). It’s not like he doesn’t have any flaws that he can’t work on and it’s not as if he’s vital the 2012 Cubs contenders. If the Cubs play it right they don’t call him up until about mid June and they add him to the 40-man roster at that time.

    We could argue that LaHair earned some playing time, which he got, but he hasn’t earned playing over a productive Carlos Pena. You just can’t bench a guy who is productive because you want to see what someone else can do. You can cut down their playing time somewhat, but if you just bench them there is no chance you’re going to attract major free agents. The thought of them being benched when the team is bad even if they’re productive will make them take less money elsewhere.

    I think you know what I mean here.

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  11. mb21

    [quote name=BrettBN]I’d like to see DJ LeMahieu get a few starts at 2B. That’s only one that gets me irked.[/quote]I figure LeMahieu is only 22 and while he had a good stretch in AA, he kind of sucked in the very hitter friendly PCL. Still just 22 and already at the big leagues though. It’s probably more important to give Barney some playing time so you can better evaluate him. DJ is so young that you can wait awhile with him. fWAR has Barney about league average per 700 plate appearances thanks to some above average defense and very good baserunning. The question with him is whether or not he can even keep his bat at this level and whether or not the scouts think he’s as good or better defensively. That seems more important to me at this point. I think Barney is ultimately a backup, but I also think DJ is also.

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  12. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]

    I think Quade has to play to win to try to keep his job and/or audition for the next job so I don’t really mind the lineups he posts anymore.[/quote]It’s not just that though. I’m sure Quade knows he’s gone regardless of whether the team wins or loses, but sometimes you remain loyal to the veterans who have been loyal to you. Sometimes you reward the outgoing free agent veterans with more playing time so that they can increase their value. There’s a delicate balance for a team not in contention. If you don’t trade the veterans as the Cubs did not, you can only justifiably bench them in favor of someone who is clearly superior. The Cubs have to be a place where free agents want to sign so that means they have to treat their players well.

    I’m talking with regards to September largely because I think what a player does in September is as irrelevant as what he does in April or May. If the Cubs evaluated Sandberg on his month with the team. They’d have seen a player who hit .203/.229/.304 and benched him for good. There is literally no difference between what a player does in September and what he does in April. You just cannot make decisions based on one month of playing time. If we did, Sandberg is a backup, the Cubs don’t win the division in 1984 or 1989. He’s not in the Hall in Fame. The Cubs were a hell of a lot less interesting to watch for nearly two decades and the Cubs would have screwed themselves out of outstanding production.

    Imagine if Sandberg had instead done that in September. Every single fan would be saying he should be traded or benched, but he did just that in April. Nowadays when a young player struggles early in the season we get mad at the manager for not playing him. People get mad that a manager made a decision based on a small sample of games. Turn the clock forward to September and people get mad that the team isn’t making decisions based on small samples. it’s very odd.

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  13. AndCounting

    I think most of these guys are getting just enough playing time. It’s nice to see them play a little without playing enough for any of them to look like total crap. I think the only Cubs starter who can really say he had a disappointing year offensively is Soto, and none of these call-ups are begging to get behind the plate.

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  14. Berselius

    Ryno, MB do you think this UT to the Pac X rumor will work out? Or is this yet another triangulation move for them?

    Also, (dying laughing) at the commenter(s) over at Frank the Tank who are convinced UT will align itself with the WAC since they’re the only conference that will allow LHN. Here’s their suggested annual schedule

    ——————

    Week 1: Rice or Sun Belt Conference opponent at Austin – Longhorn Network

    Week 2: WAC opponent at Austin – Longhorn Network

    Week 3: Pac 12 opponent from California (USC, UCLA, Cal, or Stanford) – ESPN Networks

    Week 4: Navy (at Austin or Fed Ex Field) – ESPN Networks

    Week 5: Oklahoma at Fair Park in Dallas – ABC

    Week 6: WAC opponent at Austin – Longhorn Network

    Week 7: Notre Dame (at Austin or South Bend) – ABC (at Austin), NBC (at South Bend)

    Week 8: WAC opponent at Austin – Longhorn Network

    Week 9 : BYU (at Austin or Provo) – ESPN Networks

    Week 10: Army (at Austin or Yankee Stadium) – ESPN Networks

    Week 11: WAC opponent at Austin – Longhorn Network

    Week 12: BYE

    Week 13: Texas A&M – ESPN

    WAC opponents: Texas-San Antonio, Texas-El Paso, Texas State, and Texas-Arlington or alternate opponent

    —————–

    That sure screams Championship Material to me
    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  15. Rice Cube

    [quote name=AndCounting]I think most of these guys are getting just enough playing time. It’s nice to see them play a little without playing enough for any of them to look like total crap. I think the only Cubs starter who can really say he had a disappointing year offensively is Soto, and none of these call-ups are begging to get behind the plate.[/quote]It sounds like they will call up Steve Clevenger soon so that will eat into Koyie’s playing time.

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  16. mb21

    The other thing is that despite what fans think, a baseball team’s business isn’t run in the manner they think it should be. As Alvin always said, these guys are human beings. They’re not just a stat sheet. They talk to one another and influence others into signing or staying away. If there’s ever a time to consider the human aspect, it’s this. You’re not just benching a guy who is productive. You’re benching someone who has done his job well, even better than expected, and telling him in the process that he’s a failure. That’s just fucked up.

    Sometimes I wonder how these people who complain would like to be treated in the manner they want baseball teams to treat their employees. Imagine you’re really good at your job and get fired for someone else who is cheaper. You’re better. You probably don’t have to imagine. It’s happened to some of you, I’m sure. Did it feel good? Did you tell any of your friends to go work at that place?

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  17. mb21

    b, I don’t buy the current rumors. A month ago Larry Scott basically said the LHN is a deal breaker. Now a month later he’s managed to convinced every current member that Texas can make $40-50 million per year in tv revenue while the rest of them are making, what $15-20 million? yeah, good luck with that.

    Only way Texas keeps its LHN and joins a conference is if they join the SEC. Any other scenario results in the LHN being changed considerably with all revenue split evenly among all conference members. If the Pac wants to put itself in the same situation the Big 12 put itself in when it was created, go for it. It will be as dead as the Big 12 was when it formed. Just a matter of time. And if Texas is seen as the bad guy at that point, there won’t be a single conference that would have the least bit of interest in adding them.

    The Pac added more revenue sharing when they added two members last year. They basically matched what the B10 does. They’re not suddenly going to change and have less than any conference. People are fucking nuts if they think USC is signing up for this. They’re nuts if they think UCLA, ASU, Arizona, Oregon or any other member signs up for this.

    However, if it somehow works out that way, within 10 years the Pac is done.

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  18. binky

    [quote name=AndCounting]I think most of these guys are getting just enough playing time. It’s nice to see them play a little without playing enough for any of them to look like total crap. I think the only Cubs starter who can really say he had a disappointing year offensively is Soto, and none of these call-ups are begging to get behind the plate.[/quote]Exactly. LaHair has been getting some outfield starts to show off his bat. I really think Q has done a nice job of letting the vets get their PAs so they can get good contracts and doing a little auditioning for the young’ens. I think there are some things you can learn about a guy by playing him on the MLB level, mostly in terms of potential and problems. If he’s got a huge hole in his swing, suddenly that’s obvious on the MLB level because those guys know how to exploit a tiny weakness. You at least get some preliminary scouting data and some professional reps. But I think Q has done a good job of shuffling without ostracizing any veterans, really.

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  19. binky

    [quote name=mb21]The other thing is that despite what fans think, a baseball team’s business isn’t run in the manner they think it should be. As Alvin always said, these guys are human beings. They’re not just a stat sheet. They talk to one another and influence others into signing or staying away. If there’s ever a time to consider the human aspect, it’s this. You’re not just benching a guy who is productive. You’re benching someone who has done his job well, even better than expected, and telling him in the process that he’s a failure. That’s just fucked up.

    Sometimes I wonder how these people who complain would like to be treated in the manner they want baseball teams to treat their employees. Imagine you’re really good at your job and get fired for someone else who is cheaper. You’re better. You probably don’t have to imagine. It’s happened to some of you, I’m sure. Did it feel good? Did you tell any of your friends to go work at that place?[/quote]I think that partially applies to the young guys too. You can get a feel for how well the communicate if you play them a little, how Campana’s speed translates into defense, etc. How well a guy’s personality fits with the team. His work ethic. How well he responds to not being the superstar anymore. I think you get that kind of information about a LaHair or a LaMahieu this time of year. I agree totally you don’t bench the vets. That’s just a bullshit way to run a team, especially if there’s any chance they’re coming back next year. Right now, I wouldn’t rule out seeing a single current Cub back with the club next season.

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  20. mb21

    Last I checked there were 39 if they moved someone to the 60 day DL. Can’t remember who it was though, but he was done for the season. Marcos Mateo?

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  21. binky

    So let me get this straight: for the last two weeks the Rays have to play two series against the Yankees, and the Red Sox have to play two series against the Orioles? I bet Rays nerds never thought they’d be rooting so hard for Vlad Guerrero at this point in the season.

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  22. Mish

    Sickels is going division-by-division with some sleeper draft picks from this year:

    CHICAGO CUBS: The Cubs spent a lot of money on over-slot bonuses, so it is harder to stay within what I’m trying to do with this series of articles, but one guy who stands out is sixth round pick Neftali Rosario out of Puerto Rico. He hit .294/.351/.490 in rookie ball and has the tools to be a good defensive catcher. He needs some work with the strike zone and just general experience, but looks like a possible bargain for a $150,000 bonus.

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  23. Mish

    [quote name=josh] I bet Rays nerds never thought they’d be caring at this point in the season.[/quote]Fixed.

    FTR, I did think the Rays would win 87-89 games before the season started, but still finish well behind the Sox and Yankees. I still don’t expect them to win a berth, but hey, it’s baseball.

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  24. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]So let me get this straight: for the last two weeks the Rays have to play two series against the Yankees, and the Red Sox have to play two series against the Orioles? I bet Rays nerds never thought they’d be rooting so hard for Vlad Guerrero at this point in the season.[/quote]The baseball gods smile upon Tampa Bay (BOS down 2-0 against the O’s)

    Not without a bit of smiting though…2-1 O’s now.

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  25. binky

    [quote name=Mish]Fixed.

    FTR, I did think the Rays would win 87-89 games before the season started, but still finish well behind the Sox and Yankees. I still don’t expect them to win a berth, but hey, it’s baseball.[/quote]It’s definitely going to be tough. Too bad they don’t have just one more series against Boston.

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  26. Mish

    [quote name=GBTS]The Yankees should totally throw these games.[/quote]The Yankees are pretty much safe, but the struggle of the Sox/surge of the Rays have masked their own struggles of late.

    If there is a God (there isn’t (dying laughing)), somehow the Yanks and Sawks will lose out and TBR will win the ALE and the Angels the WC.

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  27. binky

    [quote name=GBTS]The Yankees should totally throw these games.[/quote]”Hey Boston, we’ll see you in postseason….if only I could could figure out how to swing this wooden stick thingy. Uh-oh! I can’t remember!”

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  28. Rice Cube

    http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/dispute-a-rule-7-05-and-the-flinging-of-leather/

    The question: now that the baseball glove is here to stay, why not give the fielder the right to use it to the best of his ability? What could be more exciting than to see an outfielder, perched at the wall, aim a glove at the sky to knock down an anticlimactic 470-foot home run? Being able to throw one’s mitt accurately, when running down a triple in the corner, might add another tool, bring out another form of excellence to admire and enjoy. I say revoke 7.05, or at least 7.05a, and rediscover your inner little-leaguer.

    I would find this entertaining.

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  29. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Back-to-back jacks for the O’s. 5-1[/quote]Does this late-season mini-collapse by the Sawx change one’s opinion of Theo Epstein? Jeff Passan and Craig Calcaterra were having Twitter wars about it earlier.

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  30. Aisle424

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Does this late-season mini-collapse by the Sawx change one’s opinion of Theo Epstein? Jeff Passan and Craig Calcaterra were having Twitter wars about it earlier.[/quote]
    Not even a little bit. Theo puts his team in a position to make the post-season every damn year. Sometimes shit like this is going to happen. The Carl Crawford contract is going to be an albatross for a few years though.

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  31. binky

    [quote name=Aisle424]Not even a little bit. Theo puts his team in a position to make the post-season every damn year. Sometimes shit like this is going to happen. The Carl Crawford contract is going to be an albatross for a few years though.[/quote]Why do people denigrate CC so much? Is it just age? He seems like a solid player. Obviously, he’s had an atrocious year, but he had a lot of good years in TB.

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  32. mb21

    Win some, lose some. That’s the free agent market. There are going to be Soriano’s and Zito’s whether anybody likes it or not. About the only way you won’t see those contracts is if MLB has a salary cap and that may not even be enough. There will also be a fair share of DeRosa and Byrd type contracts. No GM is going to bat 1.000 when it comes to signing free agents. I thought signing Crawford to that deal at the time was a bit nuts, but mistakes happen.

    I’m just trying to figure out what makes Theo more likely to be available: reaching the postseason or not. Or neither?

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  33. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]

    I’m just trying to figure out what makes Theo more likely to be available: reaching the postseason or not. Or neither?[/quote]How’s Theo’s relationship with Sawx ownership? If it’s not so hot and his team doesn’t make the playoffs, then I could see him getting ousted…but that is mostly speculative.

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  34. AndCounting

    [quote name=mb21]I’m just trying to figure out what makes Theo more likely to be available: reaching the postseason or not. Or neither?[/quote]I don’t think it matters and that he’s available either way. Didn’t he leave once already? It’s not like the Red Sox will have trouble filling his slot either. I guarantee you, the Carl Crawford contract wouldn’t stand in the way of anyone jumping at that job.

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  35. mb21

    [quote name=AndCounting]I don’t think it matters and that he’s available either way. Didn’t he leave once already? It’s not like the Red Sox will have trouble filling his slot either. I guarantee you, the Carl Crawford contract wouldn’t stand in the way of anyone jumping at that job.[/quote]I agree. Especially if the Cubs offer him the President title. Not sure how he turns that down. The question at that point is do the Red Sox promote Cherington or steal Friedman?

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  36. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]Win some, lose some. That’s the free agent market. There are going to be Soriano’s and Zito’s whether anybody likes it or not. About the only way you won’t see those contracts is if MLB has a salary cap and that may not even be enough. There will also be a fair share of DeRosa and Byrd type contracts. No GM is going to bat 1.000 when it comes to signing free agents. I thought signing Crawford to that deal at the time was a bit nuts, but mistakes happen.

    I’m just trying to figure out what makes Theo more likely to be available: reaching the postseason or not. Or neither?[/quote]
    I agree, but that money doesn’t just disappear and every team has a finite amount it can spend. Some are more than others, but we’ve seen how fast a couple of bad contracts can strangle a team.

    Overall, I would slow dance with Alvin if it meant someone like Theo were to take over the Cubs. I trust his metrics and decision making process a heck of a lot more than the gut-instinct guys like Hendry,

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  37. Rice Cube

    AJ Burnett only lasted 4+ innings today against the Twins. Larry Rothschild’s magic only goes so far, I guess.

    If you were to make an educated guess that Theo Epstein is the next Cubs GM, does this tell you in which direction the club goes in 2012 (rebuild vs. contend vs. hybrid plan)?

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  38. Rice Cube

    It’s too bad they couldn’t bring Mariano Rivera in right now as he’d only get a win instead of a save.

    /useless stat’d

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  39. AndCounting

    I will say that if the Red Sox do somehow manage to miss the postseason, the Cubs could make a move to sign him earlier, maybe before the first round of games starts. Don’t know how much practical difference it would make, but the chatter would accelerate at that point.

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  40. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]AJ Burnett only lasted 4+ innings today against the Twins. Larry Rothschild’s magic only goes so far, I guess.

    If you were to make an educated guess that Theo Epstein is the next Cubs GM, does this tell you in which direction the club goes in 2012 (rebuild vs. contend vs. hybrid plan)?[/quote]My question would be, can they bring in a Theo or someone similar in time to make those decisions, or are they going to have to ride next year out a few months and hope some good trade opps come up in the regular season?

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  41. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]My question would be, can they bring in a Theo or someone similar in time to make those decisions, or are they going to have to ride next year out a few months and hope some good trade opps come up in the regular season?[/quote]I think this is a good point and I guess it depends on how fast of a learner the new GM (maybe Theo) is between the end of the World Series and the winter meetings. At the same time I am sure Ricketts has an agenda that he’d like the new guy to stick to for at least the first few months before he’s let loose to do his magic.

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  42. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]I wonder what it would take for the O’s to be in contention. I wonder why the O’s even exist.[/quote]I don’t think a team is allowed to be contracted if they’ve actually either been to or have won a World Series since the Cubs’ last appearance in 1945.

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  43. Mish

    [quote name=josh]I wonder what it would take for the O’s to be in contention. I wonder why the O’s even exist.[/quote]
    My best friend (a Boston native/Red Sox fan) told me before the season that he expected the O’s to finish third in the ALE, and easily beat out the Rays (at least in head-to-head, he was right). He just thought with guys like Vlad, Reynolds, Lee, and Hardy added that they’d easily take on the Jays and Rays…

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  44. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think a team is allowed to be contracted if they’ve actually either been to or have won a World Series since the Cubs’ last appearance in 1945.[/quote]Fair enough. I suppose they still draw in Baltimore. The Ghost of Cal Ripkin, I guess. The Marlins on the other hand…

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  45. binky

    [quote name=Mish]My best friend (a Boston native/Red Sox fan) told me before the season that he expected the O’s to finish third in the ALE, and easily beat out the Rays (at least in head-to-head, he was right). He just thought with guys like Vlad, Reynolds, Lee, and Hardy added that they’d easily take on the Jays and Rays…[/quote]Losing Roberts didn’t help them much. D. Lee, Gregg, and Vlad didn’t help much either.

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  46. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Fair enough. I suppose they still draw in Baltimore. The Ghost of Cal Ripkin, I guess. The Marlins on the other hand…[/quote]They swindled their way into a new stadium so the crowds will be there I suppose. Plus they apparently want to buy up free agents so they might not suck, especially with a healthy Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez headlining their rotation. Who knows…

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  47. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]They swindled their way into a new stadium so the crowds will be there I suppose. Plus they apparently want to buy up free agents so they might not suck, especially with a healthy Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez headlining their rotation. Who knows…[/quote]Fine, every team has a right to exist! I looked it up and apparently the O’s won the AL East in 1997? I definitely don’t remember that.

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  48. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Fine, every team has a right to exist! I looked it up and apparently the O’s won the AL East in 1997? I definitely don’t remember that.[/quote]The Yankees were the wild card that year as they flip-flopped with the O’s from the previous year. The O’s made the ALCS two straight years but couldn’t advance. The Indians lost to the Marlins in 7. At that point the Marlins fire-saled and sucked until 2003. That’s baseball!

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  49. Rice Cube

    Useless fact:

    The Marlins have only made the playoffs twice, and both times won the World Series. If they make it to the playoffs in 2012, put all your chips on Fish.

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  50. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]The Yankees were the wild card that year as they flip-flopped with the O’s from the previous year. The O’s made the ALCS two straight years but couldn’t advance. The Indians lost to the Marlins in 7. At that point the Marlins fire-saled and sucked until 2003. That’s baseball![/quote]That’s right, the Red Sox were still a nonfactor at that point.

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  51. Dr. Aneus Taint

    [quote name=Berselius]Ryno, MB do you think this UT to the Pac X rumor will work out? Or is this yet another triangulation move for them? [/quote]
    I’m not sure anymore. I do know that they have their sites set on one conference in particular and are using the others to leverage the LHN into the deal. I don’t know if it’s the ACC or the Pac 12, though.

    The ACC makes more sense for everything but football (and even that’s close), imo, but I’m sure they’d like to stick with OU.

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  52. binky

    [quote name=Mish]http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/create-a-meme-maybe-its-just-society/[/quote]All I have to say is, I’m glad no one records all the stupid shit I say in the course of an average day. I bet on my last three job interviews, there would be some pretty hilariously stupid quotes.

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  53. Berselius

    [quote name=GW]http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/?src=twrhp

    much better than silver’s last foray into realignment.[/quote]
    He makes a good point about what has long bothered me about the NYC market. NYC doesn’t have a team (no, Rutgers doesn’t count) and could largely give a damn about specific college football. It has fans of every school living there.

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  54. GBTS

    @keithlaw
    …where he plays half his games RT @JaysFanForeverr: half of Granderson’s HRs have came in that little league park they call Yankee Stadium

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

    I love Keith Law.

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  55. binky

    [quote name=ACT]http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6993492/chicago-cubs-reliever-kerry-wood-season-torn-meniscus
    Latest Kerry Wood injury: out for 2011, may retire.[/quote]I didn’t know he was even hurt!

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  56. ACT

    I was wondering why he hadn’t pitched in a while. Anyway, the Cubs got a good deal on him this year, and I wouldn’t mind if they offered him a similar deal next year.

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  57. binky

    [quote name=ACT]I was wondering why he hadn’t pitched in a while. Anyway, the Cubs got a good deal on him this year, and I wouldn’t mind if they offered him a similar deal next year.[/quote]Yeah, assuming he comes back from the injury, they should definitely give him another year. that sucks. I’ve always liked Kerry. I guess that solves the potential roster mystery from earlier.

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  58. mb21

    [quote name=ACT]I was wondering why he hadn’t pitched in a while. Anyway, the Cubs got a good deal on him this year, and I wouldn’t mind if they offered him a similar deal next year.[/quote]Sure, at that price, why not? But he’s not an especially good reliever these days.

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  59. GBTS

    [quote name=ACT]Lackey gave up a ton of runs? There’s something you only see every fifth day or so.[/quote]And Matusz is giving them right back? You don’t say.

    I’m actually stunned at how bad he’s been. He showed flashes last year.

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  60. melissa

    Cuey has to play whatever lineup he feels gives him the best chance to win because the final 37 games are of the utmost importance as he proved last season. (dying laughing)

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  61. Berselius

    [quote name=GBTS]And Matusz is giving them right back? You don’t say.

    I’m actually stunned at how bad he’s been. He showed flashes last year.[/quote]
    Keith Law joked a few weeks ago that any pitcher that puts on an Orioles uniform instantly loses 3 mph from his fastball.

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  62. Berselius

    [quote name=melissa]You just come here to disagree with me don’t you. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    Truly, indeed, what a sad life you must lead.

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  63. mb21

    I just got around to reading Nate’s article. Some of those numbers are just plain silly. Good intentions, but useless. I’m surprised he didn’t realize that. I’m getting the feeling Nate just doesn’t understand college football and should stay away from it.

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  64. mb21

    Berselius, it’s not about how many fans in New York are Rutgers fans. It’s about how many are going to switch carriers if their cable company doesn’t pick up the BTN (if they were to join the Big Ten of course). Obviously the fans in New York are fans of many teams, but it’s also clear that Rutgers has the largest market. If half of the Rutgers fans are going to switch to a cable company that does carry the BTN, almost all of them will add it. It doesn’t matter how many fans there are. It’s whether or not people are paying subscriber fees for the network. My guess is that parts of the state would carry it and parts would not.

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  65. mb21

    I’m as big a Hawkeyes fan as there is and I couldn’t even look a single person straight in the face and say that Iowa has nearly as many fans as the Huskers do. Whatever method resulted in showing that they do is flawed. There are several other examples like that.

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  66. GW

    [quote name=mb21]I just got around to reading Nate’s article. Some of those numbers are just plain silly. Good intentions, but useless. I’m surprised he didn’t realize that. I’m getting the feeling Nate just doesn’t understand college football and should stay away from it.[/quote]
    i thought it was excellent. I would say put 20% error bars on it and call it good.

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  67. GW

    I don’t think anyone is going to use that to compare individual teams rigorously. It’s a macro analysis to establish the pecking order in various parts of the country.

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  68. mb21

    The research is excellent and interesting, but it didn’t lead to accurate results. If you developed a new baseball stat called WAR and it showed Ryan Theriot as better than Hanley Ramirez you don’t just put error bars on it and call it good. Obviously that’s an exaggeration, but some of the results are just plain silly.

    I don’t know if adding error bars makes it any better. I wouldn’t know what they should be, but if we’re talking about how much money people are willing to spend, I can guarantee you that Nebraska fans are willing to spend 10 times as much or more on Nebraska football than Iowa. Probably 15 times as much.

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  69. melissa

    [quote name=Berselius]Truly, indeed, what a sad life you must lead.[/quote]
    You aren’t the first to tell me this. (dying laughing)

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  70. GW

    [quote name=mb21]The research is excellent and interesting, but it didn’t lead to accurate results. If you developed a new baseball stat called WAR and it showed Ryan Theriot as better than Hanley Ramirez you don’t just put error bars on it and call it good. Obviously that’s an exaggeration, but some of the results are just plain silly.

    I don’t know if adding error bars makes it any better. I wouldn’t know what they should be, but if we’re talking about how much money people are willing to spend, I can guarantee you that Nebraska fans are willing to spend 10 times as much or more on Nebraska football than Iowa. Probably 15 times as much.[/quote]
    Haha. Lots more factors in play for college football than just plate appearances and defensive opportunities.

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  71. GW

    [quote name=mb21]The research is excellent and interesting, but it didn’t lead to accurate results.[/quote]
    And I would contend that it did lead to accurate results. College football is huge in the midwest and southeast. Much less so on the west coast and in new england. This lays some ballpark figures on that.

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  72. binky

    [quote name=GW]i thought it was excellent. I would say put 20% error bars on it and call it good.[/quote]Wait, this wasn’t a joke?

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  73. GW

    [quote name=josh]Wait, this wasn’t a joke?[/quote]
    (dying laughing). baseball stat mavens are so spoiled. the larger world is not so easy to deconstruct.

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  74. binky

    [quote name=GW](dying laughing). baseball stat mavens are so spoiled. the larger world is not so easy to deconstruct.[/quote]Sure it is. There are two kinds of people: Elvis men and Beatles men. Watch Pulp Fiction — it’s all right there.

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  75. GW

    [quote name=josh]Sure it is. There are two kinds of people: Elvis men and Beatles men. Watch Pulp Fiction — it’s all right there.[/quote]
    point well taken. According to my calculations, Nebraska —> Elvis, Iowa —-> Beatles

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  76. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=josh]Sure it is. There are two kinds of people: Elvis men and Beatles men. Watch Pulp Fiction — it’s all right there.[/quote]

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  77. GW

    [quote name=edsbs]I hate that the Sun Belt and Big East probably won’t join forces. The SUNBEAST conference would be unfuckwithable.[/quote]
    (dying laughing)

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  78. mb21

    [quote name=GW]And I would contend that it did lead to accurate results. College football is huge in the midwest and southeast. Much less so on the west coast and in new england. This lays some ballpark figures on that.[/quote]Well, of course. You could look at tv contracts to figure that out. What exactly did this show us that we didn’t already know? We knew football was big in the Midwest in Southeast. We know this because the Big Ten and SEC have huge tv contracts. We know the Big Ten would have fans fairly spread out since they have more alumni than any other conference.

    The results did not tell us anything we didn’t already know. They did, however, tell us a few things that were ridiculous and untrue.

    If the entire point of that exercise was to inform us that there are more college football fans in the southeast and Midwest then it succeeded in confirming what everybody already knew. Sorry, I fail to see how that’s the least bit enlightening. Who didn’t know that people out West don’t care about college football? If there was a single person, just tell them to look at the Pac tv contract. Anybody who wanted to know, already knew.

    All I got out of Nate’s article was that he ran some interesting numbers that confirmed what we already knew. However, his interesting numbers resulting in a fair amount of absurd inaccuracies.

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  79. GW

    [quote name=mb21] However, his interesting numbers resulting in a fair amount of absurd inaccuracies.[/quote]
    The name of the game was quantifying the distribution of fanbases throughout the major tv markets. TV deals themselves are less helpful because of the changing landscape of those deals, and the fact that they tend to be calculated in 20 year intervals.

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  80. GW

    unless you were willing to spend literally hundreds of thousands of dollars on a scientific survey of college football fans, you’re going to have to resort to some educated guesses

    .

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  81. GW

    [quote name=Berselius]He makes a good point about what has long bothered me about the NYC market. NYC doesn’t have a team (no, Rutgers doesn’t count) and could largely give a damn about specific college football. It has fans of every school living there.[/quote]
    yes, but a rutgers/nd addition would give the B1G forty-some odd percent of the market, according to his calcs. might be enough for significant carriage.

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  82. mb21

    unless you were willing to spend literally hundreds of thousands of dollars on a scientific survey of college football fans, you’re going to have to resort to some educated guesses

    Exactly, GW. Thanks for pointing that out. What qualifies Nate to make educated guesses on college fan bases? I trust Nate’s educated guesses on a number of things, but realignment isn’t one of them. As far I’m concerned he’s clueless. I think what he’s written on the topic has more than proven that.

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  83. mb21

    [quote name=GW]yes, but a rutgers/nd addition would give the B1G forty-some odd percent of the market, according to his calcs. might be enough for significant carriage.[/quote]So a team that has a national tv contract now joins the Big Ten and they have to join with Rutgers in order to get the BTN in new York? That makes no sense. If ND joins they have no reason to add Rutgers. They have an East Coast presence with Notre Dame. The goal at that point is going South or Southeast specifically, which is what Delaney has hinted at before. Georgia Tech would likely be the addition along with Notre Dame. Or some school from that region.

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  84. GW

    [quote name=mb21]Exactly, GW. Thanks for pointing that out. What qualifies Nate to make educated guesses on college fan bases? I trust Nate’s educated guesses on a number of things, but realignment isn’t one of them. As far I’m concerned he’s clueless. I think what he’s written on the topic has more than proven that.[/quote]
    (dying laughing). to each his own. his educated guesses weren’t subjective. they were based on the data he could scrape up, adjusted by known revenues.

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  85. mb21

    The reason the Big Ten needs a southern team is because without one there’s little chance that the BTN is going to be shown in the southeast even if it goes national. Adding Notre Dame gets the BTN on all across America with the exception of the SEC country. You can’t get all of that, but a team like Georgia Tech would get a sizable portion. It’s not surprising that there were rumors about GT and the Big Ten last year.

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  86. GW

    [quote name=mb21]So a team that has a national tv contract now joins the Big Ten and they have to join with Rutgers in order to get the BTN to go national? That makes no sense. If ND joins they have no reason to add Rutgers. They have an East Coast presence with Notre Dame. The goal at that point is going South or Southeast specifically, which is what Delaney has hinted at before. Georgia Tech would likely be the addition along with Notre Dame. Or some school from that region.[/quote]
    if texas goes p12, I wouldn’t be surprised if rutgers was the pair. it gives penn st an east coast partner, sets up a few rutgers/nd or rutgers/psu matchups in the meadowlands. could be gatech, but they are second fiddle to georgia in that state, and would be quite an outlier.

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  87. mb21

    [quote name=GW](dying laughing). to each his own. his educated guesses weren’t subjective. they were based on the data he selectively chose to scrape up, adjusted by known revenues.[/quote].

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  88. mb21

    [quote name=GW]if texas goes p12, I wouldn’t be surprised if rutgers was the pair. it gives penn st an east coast partner, sets up a few rutgers/nd or rutgers/psu matchups in the meadowlands. could be gatech, but they are second fiddle to georgia in that state, and would be quite an outlier.[/quote]Sets up some rivalries is a great idea, but is Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State going to vote in favor of Rutgers when in reality it decreases the amount of money they’d get in tv revenue? GT may be second fiddle to Georgia, but they likely get the BTN on in most of Georgia whereas Rutgers would add literally nothing other than rivalries and that’s a big if. GT will at least bring with it some tv revenue. Rutgers won’t.

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  89. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Campana CS —> [/quote]I haven’t seen the replay yet, but Pat and Zonk thought he was safe. Then again, they burned me with their inaccurate summation of that retracted homer yesterday, so I’m gunshy.

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  90. mb21

    [quote name=GW]if you have better data, you should send it to him[/quote]Better data so we can get a picture of exactly what we already know? If I had better data I’d send it to someone who understood a lot more about college football than Nate does.

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  91. mb21

    My guess is that if the Pac expands as rumored, the Big Ten will eventually add Notre Dame and Missouri and be done with it. Going south will probably be difficult and I highly doubt they have much interest in Rutgers. Of all the times I’ve heard Delaney talk about expansion in the last year or two, never has he mentioned expanding eastward. The idea of adding Syracuse or Rutgers was always media driven. The idea of adding Pittsburgh was laughable.

    Missouri gives you St. Louis and Kansas City and if I have some time tomorrow I’ll calculate their value to the Big Ten and see if it makes any sense.

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  92. binky

    [quote name=Mucker]Sorry, I fucked up the link. It should be ok now.[/quote]That did go a long way. It probably took the four fans there to see it like twenty minutes to run up those stairs and get it.

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  93. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mucker]Sorry, I fucked up the link. It should be ok now.[/quote]Holy crap, did that bounce into the tunnel? (dying laughing)

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  94. Mucker

    [quote name=josh]That did go a long way. It probably took the four fans there to see it like twenty minutes to run up those stairs and get it.[/quote]I remember seeing McGwire crush a couple up in those stands. Stanton has serious power.

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  95. Mucker

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Holy crap, did that bounce into the tunnel? (dying laughing)[/quote]I saw it come bouncing down from like 10-15 rows up but I don’t know if it went in the tunnel.

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  96. GW

    [quote name=mb21]My guess is that if the Pac expands as rumored, the Big Ten will eventually add Notre Dame and Missouri and be done with it. Going south will probably be difficult and I highly doubt they have much interest in Rutgers. Of all the times I’ve heard Delaney talk about expansion in the last year or two, never has he mentioned expanding eastward. The idea of adding Syracuse or Rutgers was always media driven. The idea of adding Pittsburgh was laughable.

    Missouri gives you St. Louis and Kansas City and if I have some time tomorrow I’ll calculate their value to the Big Ten and see if it makes any sense.[/quote]
    As an Illini fan, I would be happy with Missouri, but I would bet against it. My guess is they stay at 12.

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  97. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]Doesn’t look like Baltimore is going to help out the Rays either.[/quote]They ensured the Red Sox would at least not gain ground.

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  98. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]They ensured the Red Sox would at least not gain ground.[/quote]True. And Marmol strikes out 2 in a row, to complete what I like to call “The Marmol.”

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  99. Rice Cube

    [quote name=josh]True. And Marmol strikes out 2 in a row, to complete what I like to call “The Marmol.”[/quote]He usually doesn’t give up the home run though, but got the job done.

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  100. ACT

    [quote name=josh]I haven’t seen the replay yet, but Pat and Zonk thought he was safe. Then again, they burned me with their inaccurate summation of that retracted homer yesterday, so I’m gunshy.[/quote]I saw the replay. He was clearly safe. Then again, he recently had a blown call in his favor, so it all evens out.

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  101. ACT

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Bad Marmol has shown up tonight.[/quote]Not really. Bad Marmol can’t find the strikezone. I don’t know who that imposter was, giving up all those hard-hit balls, but I’m glad Marmol showed up eventually.

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  102. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]Not really. Bad Marmol can’t find the strikezone. I don’t know who that imposter was, giving up all those hard-hit balls, but I’m glad Marmol showed up eventually.[/quote]
    Anything Marmol does that does not result in an out —-> Bad Marmol

    /Cub fan’d

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  103. binky

    [quote name=ACT]I saw the replay. He was clearly safe. Then again, he recently had a blown call in his favor, so it all evens out.[/quote]I don’t remember that one. I do remember LaHair getting called safe when he was out, then out when he was safe a play later. I wonder if umps make an effort to balance the scales sometimes or if it’s just variance.

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  104. binky

    [quote name=ACT]Marm’s slider wasn’t working, then Riggins visited the mound, and the slider came back like magic.[/quote]”Marm……eh…..t’row the slider…..you know: good.”

    I have no idea what Riggins sounds like.

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  105. mb21

    [quote name=GW]As an Illini fan, I would be happy with Missouri, but I would bet against it. My guess is they stay at 12.[/quote]I’m not sure how much of a choice they’ll have. Or rather how much of a choice Notre Dame will have. Missouri would at least create enough revenue that would make sense for the Big Ten to add them.

    I don’t know. I just figure people thought they were done at 10 and then done at 11. The problem with that is that much of what these conferences do is a reaction to what the others do. The Pac was done at 10 and so on. I don’t think there’s any such thing as done when it comes to expansion.

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  106. Rice Cube

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/cbsports-big-east-big-12-officials-talk-merger-20110919,0,3167199.story[/quote]If the Big East and the Big 12 merged, that would be like three time zones worth of travel (dying laughing)

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  107. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If the Big East and the Big 12 merged, that would be like three time zones worth of travel (dying laughing)[/quote]In basketball they’d all play each other once a decade. (dying laughing)

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  108. Rice Cube

    I’d prefer the Pirates beat the D’Backs so the Giants can gain a half-game, which is slightly more important than the Cubs’ draft position at the moment.

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  109. ACT

    2 months ago to this day, the Pirates were in first place and 13.5 games ahead of the Cubs. Indians were tied with Tigers for first, and now are 13 games back.

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  110. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]2 months ago to this day, the Pirates were in first place and 13.5 games ahead of the Cubs. Indians were tied with Tigers for first, and now are 13 games back.[/quote]Baseball is a cruel mistress.

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  111. Berselius

    I agree with GW. I don’t think the B10 expands anytime soon barring ND reading the writing on the wall (not looking likely).

    I’m not from NY but I did grow up on the east coast and no one gives a shit about Rutgers, especially in football. They’re like Iowa State. Syracuse was the gem of the NY market, if there is any one school that is besides ND. But as you point out subscriptions are all that matters. I’m too lazy to add Nate’s numbers up but I would be shocked if alums from the current Big Ten didn’t outnumber Rutgers supporters in the NY market anyway.

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  112. Rice Cube

    [quote name=ACT]I’m still not convinced the Diamondbacks aren’t a mirage.[/quote]If this were 2001 they’d shut you right up.

    [quote name=Berselius]I agree with GW. I don’t think the B10 expands anytime soon barring ND reading the writing on the wall (not looking likely).

    I’m not from NY but I did grow up on the east coast and no one gives a shit about Rutgers, especially in football. They’re like Iowa State. Syracuse was the gem of the NY market, if there is any one school that is besides ND. But as you point out subscriptions are all that matters. I’m too lazy to add Nate’s numbers up but I would be shocked if alums from the current Big Ten didn’t outnumber Rutgers supporters in the NY market anyway.[/quote]Re: NYC market, it’s kind of amusing how the two “New York” NFL teams are actually in New Jersey.

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  113. Nate Silver

    [quote name=mb21]I’m as big a Hawkeyes fan as there is and I couldn’t even look a single person straight in the face and say that Iowa has nearly as many fans as the Huskers do. Whatever method resulted in showing that they do is flawed. There are several other examples like that.[/quote]
    Well then, looks like you’ve proven me wrong.

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  114. binky

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Classy player is classy:

    What an asshole. I hope they fine that pencildick a gamecheck.[/quote]That cameraman took the ricochet off the noggin and didn’t miss a beat.

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  115. Rice Cube

    If Greedo did shoot first from that range, he was a really really lousy shot. That still makes no sense to me though I think they CGI’d it to make it look like Han moved his head a centimeter to his right.

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  116. binky

    [quote name=Rice Cube]If Greedo did shoot first from that range, he was a really really lousy shot. That still makes no sense to me though I think they CGI’d it to make it look like Han moved his head a centimeter to his right.[/quote]They did. They shifted the frame slightly. The same thing they did so that Han could step on Jabba’s “tail” in restored scene between the two, since originally Jabba was played by a human standin when they filmed that scene, which was just a shitty scene. Even if they had pulled out the old animatronic puppet Jabba that was a shitty scene.

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