One thing the Cubs have a preponderance of is #5-#6-#7-type starters. From Dallas Beeler to Eric Jokisch to Chris Rusin to Travis Wood to Felix Doubront to Justin Turner to Dan Straily the really deep cuts (Yoanner Negrin or Carlos Pimentel, anyone? Dae-Eun Rhee?), the Cubs have plenty of options to plug into the back end of their rotation (of which 2 spots are more-or-less reserved). All of these options are cheaper than Edwin Jackson; most of them are younger; the outlook for the majority is brighter.
It’s time for a change of scenery for Edwin, and I think nearly everyone agrees with that sentiment at this point. Jackson has obvious talent and he hasn’t been as terrible as his 6.38 ERA this year would indicate, but even his FIP is well above the league average (4.44) and he seemingly cannot string together 3 solid innings in a row.
| 2014 Game Scores | |
| 70+ | 2 |
| 60-69 | 0 |
| 50-59 | 6 |
| 40-49 | 9 |
| 30-39 | 3 |
| 29- | 6 |
Jackson pitched 139.2 innings this year in 27 starts, averaging 5.17 innings. He is not just bad, but taxing on our bullpen (perhaps one reason Renteria always seemingly had 13-man staves this season). He hasn’t really lost a lot of speed from his pitches (maybe half a mile from last year, a full mile from 5 years ago), but his horizontal movement has changed drastically.
Chris Bosio is a great pitching coach, but perhaps Jackson just isn’t a guy he can fix for some reason. The $26 million he is still owed is a sunk cost as far as constructing a 2015 roster, and I have faith that our FO won’t give him a rotation spot just because he’s expensive (unless they are trying to pump him and dump him, which would tell us a lot about their feelings about competing in 2015). That leaves the Cubs with 3 options:
1. Demote Jackson to the bullpen (or AAA).
I doubt this will happen, but crazier things have happened. The Cubs have a great bullpen as it stands, but Jackson has great raw stuff. Perhaps you put him in the 6th or 7th, tell him to air it out, and you can reclaim some value as a serviceable reliever. There isn’t a lot of room between Rivero/Vizcaino/Strop/Rondon/Ramirez/Wright, but there’s a spot for a Villanueva-type that Jackson could potential fill. I don’t hate leaving Jackson here if you are already paying him the money.
2. Release Jackson and get the major-league minimum remuneration when the Phillies pick him up.
This seems the most likely of the three options. Jackson has been so bad for the past 2 years that his trade value is really low. You’re eating dead-weight just to unload him, so the Cubs might be tempted to just cut bait and not have the flotsam you’d get in return for Jackson mucking up the 40-man roster. It sucks that Jackson is still owed so much, but that’s a sunk cost – you might clear a few million if you trade him for someone else’s bad contract, but then you have that bad player (and likely the same problem).
3. Trade Jackson for a bad contract somewhere else.
This is a pretty likely scenario as well. The Cubs might take a chance on a change-of-scenery type of player, and there are a few intriguing options. First is B.J. Upton, who the Cubs luckily did not sign 2 years ago. He’s been terrible for the Braves, and will likely continue to be terrible. However, he was a useful player before he arrived in Atlanta, and there could be some positive movement should he leave. He can also play CF, which while slightly unnecessary given AA, could work in a pinch should he be terrible or injured. I’d imagine the Cubs would plug Upton in LF. Upton will almost certainly be jettisoned as the new Braves’ GM tears down that team. Carl Crawford would be another targetable guy, whose CF days are long behind him. That would require a significant amount of cash from the Dodgers, though I could easily see the Cubs paying a good chunk more than $26 million for Crawford’s 2015-2017. Crawford is due $62.25 million over the next 3 years, but he’s actually a useful (if oft-injured) player. I could see the Cubs splitting the difference of the two contracts and paying Crawford 15/15/15 over the next 3 seasons (which I don’t hate out of hand). Whether or not the Dodgers would want Jackson at all is another story. Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn are the two other names that jump out to you.
Nick Swisher: 15/15/14*
Michael Bourn: 13.5/14/12*
*vests at 550 PA in 2016 with a passed physical
Swisher probably can’t play LF, so let’s pass on him. Michael Bourn makes $39.5 over the next 3 years (or $27.5 over the next 2), so I can imagine a straight-swap. In fact, the Cubs probably have to kick money to the Indians for that swap to happen, which honestly I’m not opposed to. If Jackson + $15 million dollars lands us Michael Bourn for the next 2 years or Jackson + $27 million gets you 3 years, I’ll consider that a net win.
There are a lot of scenarios in which a Jackson trade is workable, and for that reason I think there’s a good chance it does happen. In any case, I’d put the odds of Jackson starting 2 or more games in 2015 for the Cubs at 5:2.