Will The Cubs Resemble Hoyer’s Padres?

In Commentary And Analysis, Unobstructed Views by GW147 Comments

Those of us who follow the Cubs a little too closely know by and large what to expect from the 2012 version: mediocrity will hold sway. Bountiful and unabated mediocrity. The question that has kept us on the edge of our seats over the past roughly five months is: “how will the new front office put its stamp on this team?” The answer is still unclear, but seems to involve terms like “incrementally” and “deliberately.” Since we’ve been talking about playing time around here lately (there’s still time to enter the OVBlog over/under challenge), I decided to poke around the pasts of our front office heroes and see if anything could be learned about what to expect on the field.

Playing Time Distribution

My first instinct in confronting questions like these is always to put my nose in a spreadsheet and take in the sweet numerical aroma. While Theo’s Red Sox never looked like anything resembling this year’s Cubs, Jed’s Padres are a fair comparison. They, like the Cubs, have been short on impact talent (on the offensive side, at least), and have experimented with a variety of players in trying to fill that void.

Hoyer took over the Pads following the 2009 season and kept a low profile. Despite a surprising run at the playoffs in 2010 and the splashy Anthony Rizzo trade the following offseason, his name was rarely mentioned in national circles right up until rumors of his imminent hiring with the Cubs started to swirl.

One of the nice things about Hoyer’s time with the Padres, for those of us trying to tease out his influence in the product on the field, is that longtime manager Bud Black was retained by the new GM. Any changes in playing time following Hoyer's arrival are likely to have been influenced (directly or indirectly) by Hoyer’s guidance than by the whims of a newly-arrived manager. As an initial look at the Hoyer-era Padres, I focused only on the offense, and compared the distribution of plate appearances for the two years pre-Hoyer to his two years with the club. The results are not altogether unexpected.

Lots of Experimentation, Few Iron Men.

Hoyer’s Padres weren’t shy about mixing it up on the field. In 2011, only Jason Bartlett managed 600 plate appearances; in 2010, that mark was reached by two players, Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley. There was thus lots of room for experimentation. In 2010 and 2011, the Padres averaged 12.5 players with between 150 and 550 PAs, as compared to 10.5 (slightly above league average) in the two years prior.

The distribution of these plate appearances ran the gamut of the player universe. Veteran “contributors” Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada were acquired for the 2010 stretch run. Fringy younger players like Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, and Tony Gwynn Jr. were given extended looks. Retreads like Jerry Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Jorge Cantu, and Alberto Gonzalez filled out the bench, and found their way on the field more often then one might hope. The Pads even managed a seemingly successful reclamation project in stealing underachieving Cameron Maybin from the Marlins.

One of the side effects of this mix and match strategy is that very few players ended up in the 1-49 PA bucket. In fact, the Padres had the fewest number of “1-49ers” in the league in ‘10 and ‘11, after being among the league leaders in ‘08 and ‘09. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot to make of this, and it may be due in part to limiting the at-bats of relief pitchers (always a good thing).

Implications for the Cubs

We have already seen the Cubs experiment in a variety of ways. Sabermetric darling David DeJesus looks to be the regular right fielder for the next two years. Ian Stewart is currently playing the role of reclamation project, and will most likely get a full season’s worth of at bats on the chance that he turns things around. The first baseman’s job, on the other hand, is currently PCL-oldster Bryan LaHair’s, and don’t be surprised if he only gets 200 PA to prove himself. Even then, someone not named Rizzo could very well be given a shot, especially if the young first basemen starts out cold in the PCL. If the Padres are any guide, I expect to see lots of turnover, time-shares, and chances taken in the years to come.

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  1. josh

    Looks like the Hope Monster has been visiting Brett, re: Darwin Barney: http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/04/04/police-are-still-investigating-the-starlin-castro-sexual-assault-allegation-claim-and-other-bullets/

    That said, while walks are a good skill, there have been guys who are successful without a lot of them. Ichiro doesn’t take a ton of walks. He swings at pitches out of the zone less frequently than Ichiro, and makes about the same contact in and out of the zone (all according to fangraphs, of course). His biggest problem seems to be he could be slightly more aggressive on balls actual thrown for strikes, and while Ichiro has murdered fastballs, Barney hasn’t had much success against fastballs yet.

    Granted, we’re talking a much smaller sample size for Barney as opposed to Ichiro, and I guess it seems like while a guy can have success without taking a lot of walks, it means he has to make good contact. Barney seems like he’s making a lot of contact, but that’s not translating into hits, i.e., lots of weak-ass grounders. Ichiro also had speed to beat out a few of his WAGs. Perhaps adding more power, to get the ball out of the infield, will help, but sustaining that over the course of the marathon season is pretty tough. My best guess is Barney comes on strong at first and then fades.

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  2. josh

    If the Padres are any guide

    My only rebuttal here would be that we also have to consider Theo’s input. Overall, I agree with the point, though.

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  3. Mobile Rice

    @ josh:
    It’s a good thought though, and as a corollary, what happens when you apply Jed Hoyer’s philosophies to a situation where you have about 4-5 times as much money but are handcuffed by new CBA restrictions?

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  4. Berselius

    @ Rice Cube:

    I don’t find it that surprising at all. I had a hard time picking the NL winner not because there are so many great teams, but because all of them had some big flaw that bothered me (age, with the Phillies).

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  5. Rodrigo Ramirez

    Retreads like Jerry Hairston, Chris Denorfia, Jorge Cantu, and Alberto Gonzalez filled out the bench

    I kept reading this as “retards” (dying laughing)

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  6. mb21

    I just wanted to say that I read an article that blogs are dead. I thought OV still had some life yet, but they pulled the plug without even consulting us. Fuckers.

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  7. Berselius

    mb21 wrote:

    I just wanted to say that I read an article that blogs are dead. I thought OV still had some life yet, but they pulled the plug without even consulting us. Fuckers.

    We need to upgrade to web 3.0 and move this to a tumblr account, or something

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  8. mb21

    Regarding relievers batting for the Padres, I think they have to be below average. From what I can tell they had 4 relievers bat for a total of no more than 6 plate appearances in 2010 and none in 2011. Let me look at the Cubs to compare.

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  9. mb21

    The Cubs had 7 or 8 relievers in 2010 that had at least 1 plate appearance. I’m not going to bother looking at 2011 so it definitely appears that Hoyer just doesn’t let relievers bat. Good news. That could be a big part of the difference for 1-49ers, but not all of it.

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  10. Berselius

    I’d bet Petco Park has a bigger effect on relief pitchers batting for the Padres than Hoyer or Black. That’s a place where offense goes to die so more starters should be going deep into games anyway

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  11. mb21

    “I’m not up there trying to walk,” Barney said. “I’m not up there trying to do anything but win that at-bat. If guys are going to throw me strikes, fortunately I don’t swing and miss that much so I’m going to put the ball in play …. You can get on base a lot of different ways than just walking,” Barney said. “You want to be aggressive and you don’t want to be tentative. The walks will come. I’m not too worried about that, and I don’t think anyone else is. If they feel that way they’ll let me know.”

    Brett mentioned concern over this quote, but I like it and I’m not Barney’s biggest fan. If you go to the plate looking for a walk you’re not doing your job. There’s two things about Barney that people have to consider. First, pitchers are going to throw him strikes and second, he’s going to put them in play as he mentions. This means even if he was selective, which he actually has been, he’ll have fewer hitter’s counts. He’ll be batting 0-2, 1-2 a lot more than he should be. At that count he’s no more effective a hitter than a pitcher is. Pitchers aren’t the least bit afraid of throwing a strike to him in any count. He has no power so pitchers will challenge him and throw him lots of strikes. He can either swing at these or end up in pitcher’s counts at which point we have a .200/.215/.230 hitter on our hands.

    As ACT pointed out recently, Barney wasn’t swinging enough last year so being aggressive is a good idea for him. He needs to hit the ball more often early in the count than he did a year ago. Pitchers aren’t going to walk him.

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  12. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    The point is that GW’s groupings have one for players who batted 1-49 times. That group will include all relievers who bat.

    One of the side effects of this mix and match strategy is that very few players ended up in the 1-49 PA bucket. In fact, the Padres had the fewest number of “1-49ers” in the league in ‘10 and ‘11, after being among the league leaders in ‘08 and ‘09. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot to make of this, and it may be due in part to limiting the at-bats of relief pitchers (always a good thing). — GW

    The Padres have had roughly 6 fewer players bat between 1 and 49 times than league average. Is this from limiting relievers? I think some of it is, but it’s also clear they give more players 150 to 449 plate appearances than other teams do.

    Regarding more innings for the starter, they’ve been right at league average the last 2 years.

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  13. josh

    @ mb21:
    I think that’s probably right. I can’t see him being walked much. Hitting it out of the infield, I think, is probably the one thing he can do to improve his batting average. How, exactly, he does that, I don’t know. Maybe the weight increase will help, at least in the short term

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  14. dylanj

    man Tenn finally released its roster and the cupboard is bare. Outside of a few pitchers there is nothing there this year.

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  15. mb21

    @ josh:
    Barney is another guy like F7 that has to improve so much that it’s just difficult to believe it’s going to happen. It’s actually more believable with F7 because he throws hard. Barney is limited by size. To get pitchers to be more selective with him he’s going to have to start turning on the ball and ripping some doubles down into the corner. Maybe a few more home runs over the course of the season. He’ll also have to be able to then hit the outside pitch down the right field line or pitchers will just stay over there. I have no idea how he handles secondary pitches, but that could be another issue he has to solve.

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  16. dylanj

    All the fun this year is going to be in Iowa and Boise. Peoria and Daytona have a few interesting guys but are mostly poor and Tenn is total shit. I was surprised to see Baez not get a shot in Peoria. a 2nd round of EXST and Boise for a top 10 pick. Le Sigh

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  17. mb21

    http://deadspin.com/5898856/annals-of-bullshit-the-myth-of-the-myth-of-cal-ripkens-historic-home-run?tag=mlb

    I still don’t understand this article.

    The bigger sign of what’s wrong with The Sun—and baseball, and 21st century civilization—is the part about the grooved pitch. It didn’t happen.

    This isn’t a debate. This is a fantasy. Check the box score.

    OK…

    HR: C Ripken (15, off S Boskie; 4th inn, 0 on, 0 outs to Deep LF); B Bonilla (24, off S Boskie; 4th inn, 0 on, 0 outs); R Palmeiro 2 (34, 1 off B Patterson, 1 off S Boskie; 1st inn, 0 on, 2 outs to Deep CF-RF; 7th inn, 0 on, 2 outs to Deep CF-RF).

    Is this whole article on Deadspin about the “grooved pitch?” If I recall, it was a 3-0 count when he hit that home run. Pitchers do have a tendency to throw fastballs a couple mph slower than usual when behind the count 3-0. Would it be better to just say Boskie grooved a 3-0 fastball to Ripken who hit it out of the park? Forget the maybes.

    I guess I don’t understand.

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  18. josh

    @ mb21:
    He doesn’t hit any pitch particularly well, according to fangraphs, except maybe curveballs, though that’s probably a small sample size issue more than anything. He probably shouldn’t be a #2 hitter…

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  19. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    I think the Cubs should take Barney out of that spot, move everyone up one spot, swap Soto and Byrd, and put Barney back in the #8 spot. I think they’re trying to get “speed on the bases” though so that’s why Barney is up there. From the article on ESPN it sounds like Barney’s job is to just move the previous runner over so he’ll probably bunt a lot, much to our chagrin.

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  20. mb21

    @ dylanj:
    That’s how teams do it, DJ. There’s no surprise here. He had a grand total of 18 plate appearances last season. Maybe if he had 150 or so and had done well he’d go to Peoria, but the guy had 6 PA at Boise last year in 2 games. Brett Jackson had nearly 250 plate appearances after signing in 2009 and he’d already proven he’s good enough to reach Peoria where he had 128 of those plate appearances. This was a college guy drafted in the 1st round and he didn’t move to Peoria until he had 120 plate appearances below a full season league. 18 PA is nothing, but it’s not like he played well either (.667 OPS, OBP under .280). I’m guessing the Cubs would like to see better performance before they send him to a full season league.

    If he does well when Boise kicks off their season he could get to Peoria for the final month of the minor league season. I wouldn’t count on it. My guess is they leave him at Boise all season with the possible exception of a call-up for the last few games of the Peoria season. There’s no reason to rush the guy. Make him prove he deserves to be called up. Even after Jackson had proven he should have been called up the Cubs kept him back to work on a couple things.

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  21. mb21

    @ josh:
    I didn’t read it like that, but even if he is suggesting it, it’s not like that stuff doesn’t happen. Jose Lima more than likely grooved some pitches to Sosa late in 1998. Knowing it’s a 3-0 count I think it’s only natural to assume the pitch was grooved. I assume it was. I don’t assume it was grooved so he could hit a home run and be even more a hero than he already was to O’s fan, but it was a 3-0 pitch. Pitchers groove 3-0 fastballs all the time.

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  22. Berselius

    @ mb21:

    I think Calcaterra tracks those on HBT, though it might be for that specific phrase and not just “Player X lost Y pounds” or “Player Z added N pounds of muscle”

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  23. josh

    @ mb21:
    I don’t think the blog article was very well written. That was the best I could get out of it was that he was mad at the reporter, and the only way I could see you could get angry about that quote would be if the blogger thought the reporter was implying Cal didn’t “earn” the homerun properly. If that wasn’t his point, I have no idea what he was talking about.

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  24. Author
    GW

    Berselius wrote:

    the standard deviation must be huge

    the data I’m looking at includes all PAs. i agree that its unclear if there’s anything to it, but it was just weird, and popped out at me when I was looking at it.

    1-49 PA
    YR AVG STDEV PADS
    ’08 17.7 3.7 29
    ’09 17.3 3.8 24
    ’10 17.1 3.5 10
    ’11 15.5 2.6 9

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  25. Berselius

    @ dylanj:

    This is the first year in a long time that I’ve had it and haven’t had any complaints, though there’s still time for the inevitable early-season hiccup in their software to piss me off.

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  26. mb21

    @ GW:
    I’m just curious as I said. It’s probably something I can dig through and post later on, but if it’s something you have planned to do I don’t want to steal your thunder. Thunder is important around here!

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  27. Author
    GW

    @ mb21:

    I can give it a look. I figured out how to use CSE forumulas in excel, and it makes this sort of thing a hell of a lot simpler.

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  28. mb21

    @ dylanj:
    No, I got milb.tv one year and rarely watched it. Most of the feeds are horrible. I’m not even getting mlb.tv this year. I’m still getting MLB Extra Innings, but there are some games not shown on MLBEI so I’ve been getting mlb.tv to make up for that. We’re thinking about getting rid of our cable at some point down the road. With all the instant streaming available these days it doesn’t make as much sense as it once did to have cable.

    There are only 2 tv shows that I watch that I almost always watch when they first air. Breaking Bad and Justified combine for 26 episodes per year. Actually, BB is entering it’s final season, which is split over two years so just 21 episodes of those 2 shows this year and next.

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  29. WaLi

    @ mb21:

    We came to the same thought. We got rid of cable in December this past year. We just moved away from Illinois (to NC) so we no longer got the Chicago stations and aside from Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, and Dexter (among a few other shows) we don’t really watch much TV . WGN doesn’t play Blackhawk games outside of Chicago and we couldn’t get CSN. We just started using a newsgroup and we have netflix (which we will soon cancel). We figure we can get NHL Gamecenter for ~$20 a month for 6 months, and MLB.tv for $25/month for a different 6 months, the newsgroup is $10/month, and internet is $40/month, so in total it costs about $75 compared to the $175 we were spending on cable. And we get to watch the teams we want.

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  30. josh

    @ WaLi:
    My wife and I went without cable for 9 of our 11 years. We only have basic now, and only because my internet was substantially cheaper with bundled pricing (eating the cost of the cable and then some). I have more time to do things I want to do now, anyway.

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  31. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    newsgroups are awesome. I figure aside from Breaking Bad and Justified I’m going to use those to get the shows I want to see. As for baseball, I’ll just get mlb.tv. I don’t like it as much as Extra Innings, but whatever.

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  32. Berselius

    We thought about dropping our cable earlier this year but ended up keeping it. Last fall we didn’t have cable (or even a TV) and just watched hulu/streaming and were able to see most of the shows we watch, but not in a particularly timely fashion. The only think it sucked for was sports, but usually I’d just go down to the bar or find some radio broadcast to watch Badgers/Packers games. Luckily I didn’t have to worry all that much about missing the Cubs (dying laughing).

    Our main reason for getting rid of cable was quality of service issues, but once we finally convinced TWC to take a more serious look at our line they found someone stealing cable and degrading everyone else’s signal in the process. We thought about switching to internet only but to get speeds that makes streaming video worth a damn cost just about as much as the bundled package with cable. And if we had tv service we’d want a dvr anyway, because they are awesome. So we stuck with what we had and doubled down by ordering HBO (dying laughing). At least we’re making sure to get our money’s worth with the channel beyond GoT.

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  33. Rice Cube

    @ Aisle424:
    They should put a pressure switch in the center dot of the Target symbol so that every time a player hits it with a gapper, Bob Brenly gets dropped in a dunking pool in the WGN booth.

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  34. mb21

    Berselius wrote:

    We thought about switching to internet only but to get speeds that makes streaming video worth a damn cost just about as much as the bundled package with cable.

    That’s weird. It’s not like that here. We can cut our bundle by about $75 if we keep internet at our current download speed (24 Mbps). It works perfectly for streaming. While the $75 per month saving is nice, what we’re thinking is that we just don’t watch things as they air. Whatever we have on the dvr we can get elsewhere. I’d have to wait about an hour or so to watch the two shows I typically watch as they air, but other than that it’s no different.

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  35. Berselius

    @ mb21:

    I was probably overestimating how much bandwidth I need (especially consider I don’t really like to download stuff anymore), and from what I’ve seen the speeds I’m getting now are higher than what they quote in their packages.

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  36. josh

    @ Berselius:
    I have the slowest speed cable modem and I can watch streaming movies on Netflix with no problem unless I’m currently downloading or uploading a large file. Upload times are slow, which sucks for uploading pictures onto Flickr and suchlike, but the only time I really notice download lags are when I’m downloading really large files, like games. But Champaign-Urbana is probably a relatively low-traffic area, so YMMV.

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  37. WaLi

    @ Berselius:
    I was using the slowest speed (10 mbps I think) and was getting like 1.2 mb/s. When I canceled cable we upped the speed to the next speed (20 mbps) for 10$ more, so started downloading at 2.4 mb/s. This is good enough to download an hour long show @ 720p (GOT, Shameless) in about 25 minutes or less and a 30 min show (Parks and Rec, Californication) in about 10 minutes.

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  38. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    How far away is your computer from your modem? You’re only getting 10% of your allowable download speed. We pay for 24 mbps and get somewhere between 10 and 24.5 mbps depending on how far away we are from the modem and router. We basically have those in one corner of the house and if you go to the opposite corner you’re still getting somewhere between 10 and 12 mbps. In any other room it’s over 20.

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  39. jtsunami

    Can we talk about how ridiculous the Angels are mismanaging Mike Trout? How can you put your best OF whose time clock is already ticking back to AAA. I would give up way too much for him.

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  40. Berselius

    There’s hilarious thinly sourced speculation flying around twitter about the Cubs players pictures put up on the wall on the way up to the pressbox. Inclusion of Lendy Castillo and Tony Campana somehow equals ZOMG TRADE HAPPENING and Castillo made the team.

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  41. bubblesdachimp

    Doug Padilla ‏ @ESPNChiCubs Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    INF Luis Valbuena claimed off waivers. Will make roster. Only 11-man pitching staff to start.

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  42. bubblesdachimp

    ChicagoCubsOnline ‏ @TheCCO Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    RT @ESPNChiCubs Camp and Castillo make 6-man bullpen says Jed.

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  43. Author
    GW

    @ mb21:

    i always confused him with asdrubal cabrera prior to cabrera’s breakout last season. 26 yr old shorstop who has been a part-time guy for cleveland the last few years. showed some pop at AAA in 2011

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  44. bubblesdachimp

    ChicagoCubsOnline ‏ @TheCCO Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    RT @PWSullivan Cubs claim Luis Valbuena off waivers. Lopez will not start season but will be called up quickly. Six-man bullpen for now.

    ChicagoCubsOnline ‏ @TheCCO Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
    RT @PWSullivan Valbuena can play short, back up Starlin. Campana also here in case LaHair has to go on DL.

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  45. bubblesdachimp

    There seems to be some confusion about Dolis.

    Maybe i am wrong but i assume the pen is

    Marmol, Wood, Russel, Dolis, Camp, and Castillo

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  46. mb21

    @ Mish:
    I don’t support intentional beanings, but I don’t support taking away the inside pitch as much as has been done in recent years. Pitchers should feel as comfortable throwing inside as they do outside. If you take that way you’ve given the batter a huge advantage.

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  47. Author
    GW

    @ mb21:

    an .850 OPS is nothing to sneeze at in the international league, especially if he can play ss competently (i’m not sure)

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  48. mb21

    @ GW:
    Most of his work in the minors since 2008 has been between good to impressive (OPS over 1.000 in 2010). However, we’ve got over 800 MLB plate appearances also. He has a 72 OPS+ and he’s been well below average defensively (Total Zone and UZR agree on this).

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  49. josh

    @ mb21:
    They might have even put him on the DL. He was really sick. It sounds like they plan to call him up before the end of April, basically give him the first month in the minors as Spring Training.

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  50. WaLi

    MB, I was mixing up Mbps (megabit per second) and MB/s (megabyte per second, sorry for the confusion. So I am getting about the right download rate.

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  51. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    I’m trying to remember the last time I downloaded Shameless. Are you downloading a file that’s about 500 MB or a larger one? I know there’s some mkv files, but those are usually quite large.

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  52. Author
    GW

    @ mb21:

    still wouldn’t be surprised if he’s better than barney (although I know that’s a pretty low hurdle). they are the same age, as well.

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  53. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    Maybe Valbuena hit well against Strasburg in the minors.

    There you go.

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  54. Aisle424

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