Tim, Adam and Julie talk about the just concluded Crosstown Cup series, potential trades or extensions of our starting pitchers (particularly Jeff Samardzija), and wonder what the hell is going on with the Cubs having a +11 run differential and a record of 7 under .500.
Listen to internet radio with Wrigley Talk Friday on BlogTalkRadio
Comments
I half-expect them to explore a Samardzija trade but I have no idea what he’d bring back because I’m not sure how other teams would perceive him.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Oh you guys and your two-syllable pronunciation of Samardzija. Needs to be at least three…
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Interview with Colin Wyers on Sabermetrics: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/5/31/4382914/talking-to-a-sabermagician-colin-wyers
My favorite part:
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I like it when you post these, 424. Otherwise, I tend to forget.
dmick89Quote Reply
Off topic, but Rany seems pretty mad these days:
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2013/05/how-hell-did-this-happen.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Wow. his breakdown of all the Cardinals homegrown talent was pretty sobering.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I agree with everything he said about the Cardinals. That organization is successful for a reason. They’re pure black magic plus science.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Great podcast! I enjoyed it.
I really don’t think the “original plan” was always a firesale. I think people have latched on to the idea that there’s a master plan of “Firesale for X years, compete in year Y.”
I think this year is a much better example of how “parallel fronts” is supposed to work. They put together a team they thought might be competitive (and the underlying stats say they’ve succeeded) with short-term commitments. If it doesn’t work, then the trade value of those guys is a backup plan, but I don’t think every single player was signed with “can’t wait to flip him!” in mind.
I’m fascinated by the slim possibility that we creep back into the race by the deadline and don’t do a firesale (and I think there’s a good statistical case that it’s at least possible enough to be on our radar, though unlikely).
I really, really can’t see any scenario in which Samardzija is traded. Trades, at their fundamental level, are about an imbalance of valuations. It’s not that you rip people off when you get Y for X, it’s that they need X more than they need Y, and you find yourself in the opposite situation.
Nobody’s going to need Samardzija more than we do. and there’s not going to be anything offered that we need more than Samardzija. We desperately need starting pitching in the short and medium term, and that’s Samardzija. He’s under team control (at a reduced arbitration price) for the next two years. I don’t think there’s any pressure to extend or trade him anytime in the next 18 months. Pitchers are fickle enough that it makes sense to wait as long as possible before making that sort of decision.
I think many fans have severely underestimated the team’s desire to try again in 2014. They tried this year, and it looks like it was only negative variance that sunk them. They are going to take another shot in 2014. Toward that end, I don’t think the fire sale is going to involve many, or even any, players under contract for 2014. Garza, Feldman, Gregg is plenty of firesale.
KyleQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I wonder how much of it is drafting the right guys and how much of it is player development. I’ve long wondered if there’s something that good organizations do to develop talent that, say, the Cubs miss out on. Maybe we’ll see an improvement on the rate of players who come out of the Cubs org and wind up being useful now that we have actual adults running the club. I dunno. It seems like the Cards strike gold on eighth-round picks quite a bit. Don’t know if that’s black magic or luck or what, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cubs get a piece of the action for once.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
To be fair, they don’t always remember either. But it was nice for the Cubs to win five in a row, which meant a rare podcast featuring all three bloggers.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I agree with Kyle in that I don’t see Jeff Samardzija being traded. Just too good at this point to trade.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I can see their point about Samardzija contract demands instigating a trade, but even if they do have to go to arb each year with him they’d still be getting a discount (just less of one than if they extend him).
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, if they have trouble signing him to an extension the Cubs might look and see if they could get enough in return. I just don’t see that happening. I think they reach a deal this offseason and it will be a lot more than the Cubs would have paid entering this season. He’s become one of the best pitchers in the game. I can’t believe I just said that.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s no way I see the Cubs trading F7 either, especially since he seems to be proving he’s TOR. I don’t think they’ll have any problem affording him. I worry more about whether any of the “progress” this years team is making is sustainable, if most of its based on overperformance from 1 year stop gaps like Feldman and Schierholtz.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I also think whatever improvement there has been offensively (has there even been any?), is not due to the players you most wanted it from. Who really cares if Schierholtz, Navarro and Rasmus are having good seasons? Castro isn’t. Rizzo isn’t much better than a year ago. Castillo can’t hit. Barney is still a bad hitter. These were the guys the Cubs were looking to build around and if you’re behind honest, that’s a pretty shitty group of hitters to build around. Rizzo has been good, but the others haven’t. I don’t think there’s any reason to think Castillo or Barney will be. I don’t think there’s much reason to think Castro will be much better than average.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Right. I mean, the rotation is much better than last year, but if Garza isn’t extended and Feldman is traded or doesn’t resign, or either just isn’t really this good, then the progress is really just Wood, which is somewhat unsustainable, although he seems like an acceptable 4. Jackson will probably be better than he’s been, and they’ll have him next year. I suppose they’ll have Appel or Gray in the rotation by next year so that’s improvement. Their success in identifying 1 year stop gaps is encouraging, and because their using a good decision making process, they can probably continue to do that, but they’ll really need to figure out something sustainable for the OF for next year. Bert Jacksons a bust, and then who else? Sweeeney is a 4th OF. DDJ and Schierholtz will be gone. Hairston is technically under contract, but he’s sucked minus the GS. I guess they will end up with a FA OF, but the options aren’t really that good. I kinda hope Scott Baker comes back strong after July and agrees to a cheap 2-yr extension. I can see Logan Watkins and Junior Lake on the team next year, but I don’t know that they really help. They’ll still have control of Valbuena, but who knows if what he’s doing this year is real or not.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
The weekend JOTs are back (new shit): http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-6-01-13.html
sitrickQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
I’m getting a malware warning when I open that link.
Suburban kidQuote Reply