OSS: Cubs and Yankees set a record for the most strikeouts in a game in an 18 inning marathon.
Three Five up:
- Kyle Schwarber made an amazing defensive play on a foul ball in extras, falling into the stands and somehow not getting hurt on that concrete wall. He also doubled twice and drew two walks
- Rizzo was the Cubs WPA leader by far on the day, taking a 100 mph Chapman fastball off his forearm to tie the game and hitting a leadoff double in the 12th that never amounted to a run. He also drew two intentional walks, as the pitchers' spot ended up right behind him later in the game.
- Javier Baez homered for the first run, and worked the best PA we've seen out of him all year during the Cubs rally in the ninth. Baez vs Chapman is about as obvious a mismatch as you can get (other han maybe Baez vs Rich Hill), but he stayed patient, worked a long at bat, and pushed a single to left to bring the Cubs within one.
- Jon Lester gave up the requisite first inning run, but then was just absolutely locked in the rest of the way. He threw around 120 pitches but looked about as fresh in the last inning as when he was cruising through the middle.
- They lost the game in the end, but the bullpen did a pretty great job in this one considering that they threw 8.2 innings yesterday. Between them they threw 11 innings, allowing 3 runs, 13 Ks, and three walks.
Three Four down:
- So many runners left on base, so many strikeouts. It's hard to pick one play in particular. The most negative play on the day for either team was Kyle Schwarber's strikeout with runners on second and third and one out in the ninth.
- If Heyward couldn't even make a PH appearance in an 18 inning game, the Cubs should have DL'ed him rather than have Lackey and Hendricks take at bats at key moments.
- Russell had an 0-fer for the day, but did draw two walks. This put him on base twice as often as Willson Contreras, who effectively tied him in negative WPA.
- As usual Joe West's strike zone judgement was a dumpster fire, for both teams.
Next up: Up too late for a real preview, but here are the pitching matchups
Monday: Jake Arrieta vs Antonio Senzatela, RHP, 7:40 PM CT
Tuesday: John Lackey vs Kyle Freeland, LHP, 7:40 PM CT
Wednesday: Kyle Hendricks vs German Marquez, RHP, 2:10 PM CT
I wish this series wasn't so inconveniently scheduled, I've enjoyed my trips to Denver the past two years.
Comments
Really glad I didn’t stay up for that ending.
PerkinsQuote Reply
*Fart Noise
EdwinQuote Reply
I’m still mad. I’ve learned to put aside counterfactuals in most things, but have a hard time not going back to that fucking strike-that-should-have-been-called-a ball on Russell. Also, Jason Heyward better hit the goddamn DL if he’s unavailable enough in a game like that that Kyle Hendricks has the last at-bat.
I guess I’d be more mad if I’d started watching before the 11th inning. Counting my (dying laughing) blessings.
URKQuote Reply
URK,
I’d be more mad if I couldn’t look down at my World Series Champions tshirt.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Let’s go with an unconventional 5th starter: Carl Edwards Jr.
He and Cease are basically the only two pitchers in the organization with the stuff to be a #3 starter or better besides the actual starting pitchers. Cease has no chance of making it to the major league club this year. Edwards Jr. has an easy pitching motion. Can we at least TRY him there? I understand that he’s 160 pounds. I understand that he only has 2 pitches that he’s shown at the major league level. Those two pitches are really, really good. If he can throw the changeup even 5 times a start, he can lean on the curve and heat to get him through 5-6 innings a start, I’d think. If it doesn’t work, you can send him back to the bullpen (unless he gets an owie). He just seems to have a starter’s delivery and the results have been there.
MylesQuote Reply
Yeah, I’m also having trouble getting too emotionally spun up over this. But it would be nice if the Cubs remembered they’re supposed to be good and pulled away from the pack sometime before October.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Myles,
I’d imagine that throwing the fastball/curveball that often might over expose those pitches, so while I’m sure they’d still be effective, I don’t know if it would work over 5-6 innings. Maybe instead of being really really good, they end up just being good, and then the lack of a 3rd pitch really exposes him. Plus, if he’s relying on his curveball that much I’d be worried about blisters or arm injuries cropping up.
Also, he hasn’t pitched a starter’s workload in a long time, so I’m not sure how many innings he’d be able to be stretchd out to. Last season he pitched about 68 innings, in 2015 it was 60, in 2014 it was 53, and in 2013 it was 116. The last time he even started was 2014. I don’t see the Cubs making that switch in-season.
EdwinQuote Reply
It’s ok, Cubs starters are ready to start going deeper (heh) into games.
http://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/44068/cubs-starters-want-more-innings-but-must-earn-them-first
EdwinQuote Reply
Oh, no worries then. If they are ready to go deep into games, I’m sure that will happen with no issues.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I think the first step is bringing in a RP to pitch the first inning, and the starter can come in for inning number 2.
EdwinQuote Reply
Myles,
doesn’t really matter how many runs you give up in the first as long as you last long enough to pitch a scoreless 8th. that’s just basic sabermetrics.
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
has anyone read keith law’s new book?
KenricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I haven’t, but it’s on my list.
Just finished the Cubs Way. Started really strong, kind sagged at the end, would have preferred some type of prologue, but overall pretty good.
Want to hate read A Season For The Ages at some point.
MylesQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Perkins,
Yeah– I’m already not really mad anymore, just a little disappointed. It’s just a sportsball game. But, having given up on the game before the 9th, then tuning in in the 11th, and especially seeing Schwarber’s catch, all led to heightened emotions, like sportsball is supposed to do.
it would be really great to see this team go on a tear like I know they can though. I hope there are some roster/DL moves today and am curious what they’ll be.
URKQuote Reply
Myles,
I wouldn’t buy it. Just pick a day at Costco and skim it haha.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
I still get pissed, though not as much as I used to. Since the first home series I’ve barely even thought of the WS Championship. Most Cubs fans wanted to see a championship, but I’ve wanted Yankees-like dominance of the NL. A championship is part of that and so is 2015, but the job isn’t finished yet. Not even close.
dmick89Quote Reply
That’s certainly fair, and I’m hoping for the same thing. I’d say that the 2016 World Series has made me less inclined to be reactive and more inclined to give the team the benefit of the doubt. I’m also operating under the assumption that they treated April like spring training since the rest of the NL Central is pretty far below them by true talent level.
I’d feel a lot better though, if the starters could pitch deeper into games and quit giving up runs in the first, and if the offense could remember how to hit with RISP. I’m not entirely frustrated so far, but I am pretty confused. I was expecting this season to be another steamroll of the NL Central, not to see the Cubs around .500 in early May within a couple of games of the other teams.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Hitting with runners on is important, but the lineups these days are filled with a bunch of sub-.700 OPS guys. I’m still not that worried about the offense.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m of the same mind, but wondering if the length and intensity of last year’s run, not to mention the outsized meaning of the win, doesn’t just elevate the risk of regression physically but emotionally and psychologically as well, and we’re seeing that bear some early season fruit. Seem to recall it being similar with the Red Sox in 2005 (and they ended up winning 95, IIRC—but were quickly ejected out of the playoffs).
Winning any World Series is incredibly difficult. The Cubs finally winning one was the Holy Grail of sports. It’s hard not to think, at least for a little bit, that it’s all downhill from here. I know if I had played through last year’s brutal, glorious postseason crucible, I might have a little trouble getting up to do this shit all over again so soon. (dying laughing) I’m not exactly super thrilled as a fan right now. Baseball could have been delayed a little while this year and I would have been fine with it.
And, of course, it could be baseball is always incredibly difficult, and slumps occur all the time, and this team is simply experiencing one early. The talent is still there to easily win the division, even if the SP and defense don’t appear likely to be near as good as last year.
I guess what I’m trying to say: It’s all Dodgers-in-5 from here on out.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Schwarber
Bryant (RF)
Rizzo
Zobrist
Montero
LaStella (3B)
Baez (SS)
Arrieta
Almora Jr.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I am with you 95.27%.
I would not mind seeing a halfway compromise: A Montgomery/Edwards tandem every third or fourth or fifth game would be awesome in my opinion. One starts, the other gets the win, and switch. 3–4 innings/60–75 pitches each. If it’s in the regular rotation, they could be available for some scattered innings in between. 120–140 innings on the year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Another idea would be to have Montgomery and Lackey do that. Have Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks go on days 1, 2, and 4. Have Lackey start on day 3 (and Montgomery relieves him) and do the opposite on day 5. It’s an idea posited in The Book as a way of gaining some offense (you pinch hit for the day’s starter at his first plate appearance on the tandem days) and minimizing the exposure of your lesser starting pitchers.
Where I could see this going off the rails is Joe’s love of an eight man bullpen and the attendant short bench. Also I think Lackey would have some choice words about the arrangement.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I think Edwards would have a difficult time as a starter. He’d lose some velocity and be a lot more hittable. Add in the lack of a third or fourth pitch and it wouldn’t be fun in my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
Yeah, Lackey would not be happy and for what it’s worth, he’s still good enough to start like a regular starter.
dmick89Quote Reply
I am a little surprised that there was no roster move today. Maybe the Cubs were hoping that this would be a rainout.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Delayed start to the game
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
A couple rainouts look likely in Denver. I’m ok with that.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Too bad for me that they won’t be rescheduled for a weekend
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Heyward to the DL, Dylan Floro called up
dmick89Quote Reply
Matt Szczur ——>Padres
dmick89Quote Reply
Game is postponed, which seems like an act of mercy after last night’s marathon.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Looks like a day-night doubleheader tomorrow, which is probably good for the Cubs. Tough to take both ends of one of those, and there’s a decent chance the Cubs were going to get swept.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Rich Hill thinks tertiary pitches are overrated. But Rich Hill also thinks it’s hard to be an effective pitcher on the bench, so…
ceruleanQuote Reply
The Padres have done alright with Cubs’ castoffs. Here’s to that continuing.
ceruleanQuote Reply
You guys always want to talk to me about football, but sometimes baseball is just more relevant. If you’re interested in knowing more about Alex Scherff, I spent a while talking to him yesterday for a story. Long story short: He good.
RynoQuote Reply
Given what’s going on in New York, I bet Matt Harvey could be had cheaply. Not sure how much he has left in the tank, though.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Ryno,
https://youtu.be/Nm3GjsMXtgQ?t=10s
RynoQuote Reply
Did you ask him if teams were worried about his decision making skills after committing to aTm?
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
You bet your ass that’s the first thing I asked him. I hope, for his sake, it’s just a front to get a bigger ML contract.
RynoQuote Reply
To day’s base ball squadron:
Schwarber
Bryant (RF)
Rizzo
Zobrist
Montero
LaStella (3B)
Baez (SS)
Arrieta
Almora Jr.
I wonder if Montero starts getting more starts with Willson’s offensive struggles and the offense’s overall ineptitude.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That’s a weird, weird delivery.
MylesQuote Reply
If you stopped the video as the ball came out of Scherff’s hand, you’d guess he was throwing batting practice. Reminds me of Rich Harden in that respect.
MylesQuote Reply
Some serious weather moving through here, hope it dodges Denver tonight
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
How has Jake’s velocity been today?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Looks like he’s around 92-93, but I haven’t seen every pitch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Two outs for a run, but I’ll take it since the Cubs are finally scoring first.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
So he’s still off a bit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not a smart play by Javy there.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I’m starting to think the cubs suck a little bit.
dmick89Quote Reply
There’s a nonzero chance the Cubs are under .500 by the end of the day.
PerkinsQuote Reply
1st inning runs yaaaaay
1st innng runs boooooo
joshQuote Reply
If the Cubs didn’t have those comebacks (something that’s not sustainable) they’d have a pretty shitty record.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I blame Theo
joshQuote Reply
arghleblarghle
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
dmick89,
Yeah, but the pitching can only improve at this point, right?
joshQuote Reply
War Bear!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I had the odds at about 75% before the game started. About 90% now.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have to wonder if Arrieta is regretting not signing that contract extension after 2015.
PerkinsQuote Reply
josh,
UPDATE: I totally missed the first 2 innings.
joshQuote Reply
Judas.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Woooooooooooooooow
joshQuote Reply
I feel better about the Arrieta non-extension every day.
uncle daveQuote Reply
At this point, I think you just leave Jake out there until he can’t throw. No need to tax the bullpen.
PerkinsQuote Reply
This game could end up being 103-114
joshQuote Reply
So rumor is Doug Fister is close to signing with an NL team. Who wants to bet it’s the Cubs?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I don’t think 6 runs win this one.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yep. Not really a good idea at the time either.
dmick89Quote Reply
Perkins,
Certainly not for the Cubs.
joshQuote Reply
This is a good start to the inning
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Perkins,
Worst spot for the Cubs offense is runners in scoring position.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Boy you’d think so.
joshQuote Reply
Is 2017 over yet?
dmick89Quote Reply
Ugh.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89,
Careful what you wish for.
joshQuote Reply
dmick89,
HAVE YE LOST FAITH!?
joshQuote Reply
Why take out Arrieta? No point in taxing the bullpen any more than you have to.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Leave him out there for 130 at this point. He’s of little use otherwise.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Arrieta was in line for a monster contract from the Cubs. He’s getting a pillow somewhere at this point.
MylesQuote Reply
I don’t know why they keep letting Brett Anderson pitch.
ceruleanQuote Reply
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
uncle daveQuote Reply
Seriously. Jordan Zimmerman went 5/$110 MM. Jake would almost certainly have been in that realm. There is absolutely no chance he gets that at this point. He might not get half that.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
If his velocity doesn’t come back, he’d be lucky to get a two year deal.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
The good news:
The bad news:
ceruleanQuote Reply
Myles,
I’ve not been paying nearly enough attention to answer this, but with Arrieta and Zobrist seemingly in a steep decline, what does that do to the perception of the Cubs’ window of contention? I think that they’ll ultimately make the postseason this year (if for no other reason than a lack of competition within the division), but do you push your chips in to compete over the next couple of years or stutter along the best you can and hang onto Happ and Eloy?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Yep. This team doesn’t look to be very good from what I can tell. They won’t be bad, but they are far from anything resembling good.
dmick89Quote Reply
This is Coors field. Scoring 10 runs in an inning is not out of the question.
joshQuote Reply
uncle dave,
I think if the Cubs had interest in trading one of those two they’d probably have added a starter in the offseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I mean, yeah, they definitely haven’t played real well yet. OTOH, the divisions sucks.
joshQuote Reply
Dylan Floro has a 27 K/9 going and a 33.3% K rate. Fail to see the problem here.
MylesQuote Reply
Indeed. The Rockies are proving this true.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Admittedly, they may need to work some midseason magic to get some better pitching.
joshQuote Reply
I think there is a solid chance the Cubs cash in a few of those prospects for pitching, but only if it’s a long-term acquisition. My pet theory is Johnny Cueto, but that’s not grounded in anything other than speculation. This team doesn’t look to be a juggernaut in any sense, but that makes it more likely to me that they’d improve, not less (unless you’re in the dmick camp and think that the year might be lost).
MylesQuote Reply
josh,
I think they gave a good chance of winning the division.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
Doesn’t Cueto have an opt out this coming offseason?
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
dmick89,
I guess I’m optimistic the guys will play better and that Jed will fill in a gap or two.
joshQuote Reply
Damn, you’re right. They’d probably have to negotiate something before hand, which makes it phenomenally less likely (and appetizing). I’m stumped on who they’d get, then.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I don’t think l it’s lost, but I think I’ve adjusted my season win prediction to about 85-87.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles,
nolasco
joshQuote Reply
Myles,
Keuchel
joshQuote Reply
josh,
Holy shit, Ricky Nolasco is still pitching?
joshQuote Reply
The pickings get slim after Cueto, unless you think Cole is gettable (which is probably a year away from being true), you are a true believer in J. A. Happ ((dying laughing)), or you are buying the bounce-back Sonny Gray.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Trading within the division *GASP*
joshQuote Reply
I’ve come off 114 (dying laughing)
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
Let’s saaaay Felix Hernandez.
joshQuote Reply
How the fuck are the Rockies suddenly defensive wizards?
joshQuote Reply
Floro continues to strikeout 3 out of 4 outs and nearly half of batters faced.
Why are you looking at me like that?
MylesQuote Reply
10 runs!
ceruleanQuote Reply
I just don’t think the Cubs are this bad. The defense has been pretty bad and pitching. But I feel like both those areas will improve. If they can keep up hitting, they should improve. Right!?
joshQuote Reply
To me this just seems like some bad luck and a slow start.
joshQuote Reply
I think there is a country song that goes something like this:
Somehow, that’s more than an apt description of the current score.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Obnoxious game of name the players:
Player A: .245/.284/.347 (2013)
Player B: .228/.291/.366 (2017)
MylesQuote Reply
Walk walk walk your way to better health.
joshQuote Reply
Myles,
Trout and Baez
joshQuote Reply
Myles,
Actually the second looks more like Zo now that I look
joshQuote Reply
A is Starlin Castro, B is Addison Russell
MylesQuote Reply
Myles,
I’m the worst at this game
joshQuote Reply
Can’t wait for game 2.
dmick89Quote Reply
If it’s just half as fun we’re in for a treat.
MylesQuote Reply
dmick89,
Candelario is in the cleanup spot!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
May as well start calling up the prospects.
dmick89Quote Reply
What happened to the Cubs offense?
dmick89Quote Reply
Ugh. Bad result from Baez.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Lackey!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Thank you, Rockies defense!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Hey, runs!
PerkinsQuote Reply
More, please.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Arenado is so annoying.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
What was the mysterious ‘injury delay’ that showed up on gameday?
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
What an outing by Lackey.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Just what this team needed.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
So Candelario is looking good in the box score. If he keeps this up, we’re looking at a decent starting pitcher.
ceruleanQuote Reply
ceruleanQuote Reply
Hell of an outing by Lackey.
PerkinsQuote Reply
cerulean,
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Javy!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Javy! (About damn time a Cubs hitter did something besides ground out.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Bryant!
PerkinsQuote Reply
Chris Brian —> overrated.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Bryant!
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Finally, a sideways E
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
I wonder how the firing of Comey will impact the decades long investigation into the MLB surveillance of the American people—I mean into performance-enhancing drugs.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Looks like Brett is still with Dreamhost
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Get away day’s base ball squadron
CF Jay
RF Bryant
LF Schwarber
1B Candelario
C Montero
SS Russell
3B La Stella
2B Baez
P Hendricks
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Somehow, I’m reminded of this:
https://youtu.be/LIgurTFaq6U
uncle daveQuote Reply
Who said this?
dmick89Quote Reply
What was the roster move to keep Candelario up? Was Floro sent back down?
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Si.
Rice in limboQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
False.
https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/862370006780268544
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Is that 50 errors for Baez already? Seems like it.
dmick89Quote Reply
This team is about as enjoyable to watch as the 2005 team.
dmick89Quote Reply
In my head I’m hearing Bob Uecker in Major League saying, “One hit? That’s all they got, one Goddamn hit?”
PerkinsQuote Reply
Oh god.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
You have got to be shitting me.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Didn’t even take two months for me to start laughing at the cubs again. Glad to know things don’t change for too long.
dmick89Quote Reply
Joe must really be committed to giving Rizzo a breather.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Why did Jay show bunt before taking a pitch right down the middle?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I don’t know. I just had vague recollections that this was something some people were saying at some time. Probably BFIBs mostly.
ceruleanQuote Reply
On the plus side, Hendricks looked pretty good again (though the gun still had him sitting around 85). Too bad the offense is still dildos.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I was only home for about half the game and he did look better, as he has the last couple outings. Despite that, I don’t expect him to find much success this season unless his velocity comes back. I think he’s more likely to find it than Arrieta is without his velocity returning because Hendricks has better control. The Cubs pitching staff is probably to the point where Lackey is the second best starter and that’s not good. Especially if the offense can’t figure out how to hit with runners on. I’d consider moving Zobrist up to leadoff and Schwarber 2nd with Bryant 3rd and Rizzo 4th. After that it’s a big mess of average to below average hitters so they can do whatever they want.
dmick89Quote Reply
Upside down 7.
34 games in and the Cubs have gone nowhere. But if they go 30–4 the next 34, they will be on pace with last year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
32-2 seems likely to me based on what I’ve seen so far.
dmick89Quote Reply
Seems a little far fetched. 28–6 is more plausible.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Jameson Taillon is on the shelf for suspected testicular cancer. Shitballs.
At least the Cubs are only playing poorly and no one has testicular cancer.
ceruleanQuote Reply
“Manhood”
ceruleanQuote Reply
iZombie gets a well deserved fourth season.
dmick89Quote Reply
These are not conversations I expected to be having at any point this season, let alone as late as May.
For some reason, the defense is what stands out most to me. They went from historically good to below average with very little turnover and a young roster. Some of that is probably on the SP due to increased hard contact, but it’s hard to shake the sense that their positioning or their focus is severely lacking. My lying eyes have seen a lot of errant throws and “olé” misses on thrown or hit balls.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
Considering the drop in velocity for Hendricks and Arrieta, I’m not as surprised by the defense being worse as you are. It’s been noticeable and the really bad plays have stood out. They seem to be coming at a higher frequency this year, but I think last year’s defense got more credit than they deserved. The pitchers deserved a lot of that credit, but it was still a good defense. I think by the end of the year this team will be about average.
What stands out the most to me is how the starting pitching can’t seem to give the offense enough time to take an early lead. The Cubs of 2016 seemed to always have that early lead and the offense has been put in a huge hole early on multiple times this season. Along those same lines is how much worse the starting pitching is and especially from Arrieta and Hendricks whose velocities are so far down they’re unlikely to be very good this year without it recovering. Second, the offense came through last year with men on base and they haven’t this year. I think situational hitting is a lot of luck. I didn’t expect the Cubs to keep coming through like they did last year, but they’ve gone from one extreme to the other.
Combined, you’ve got the team down early (often down by multiple runs) and an offense that can’t come through when it needs to. You’ve got almost no shot of being a good team when that’s the case. Add in the worse defense and it’s really surprising this team is even .500. I suspect if the Cubs keep digging themselves an early hole that they won’t be able to finish the season .500 or better. I’m guessing things start to even out, but pitching is a big concern for me right now. It’s gone from a strength last year to a huge weakness this year.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
To be a fly on the wall in Theo Epstein’s office right now. I assume the superfriends are doing everything they can to acquire a frontline starter, but I’m not sure the farm system has what it takes.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Eddie Butler —–> Friday starter
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Myles,
It’s effortless, which is surprising given his height.
Here’s my story on him: http://on.nbcdfw.com/oBktYpz
RynoQuote Reply
4th place. I didn’t even figure this team would see that spot later that the first week or two of the season. I’d have been disappointed if they were in fourth place after the first week.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
Good piece. Too bad he probably won’t be around when the Cubs pick.
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
I don’t think he’s that good, and probably won’t stick in the starting rotation very long.
So it’s very likely he throws a complete game shutout while taking a no hitter into the late innings.
EdwinQuote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
Thanks.
I don’t know, he doesn’t go in the first round in any of the mocks I’ve seen. BA ranked him 51st overall in this draft, iirc.
Plus, he’s 19 so he’d be eligible for the 2019 draft as a sophomore in college. I asked him if that would weigh into his decision of whether to sign with a pro team after this draft and his response made me think he’s leaning toward going to school.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
Good article. He could still be around when the Cubs pick in the 2nd round due to his commitment to college. If he is, I hope they take him.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Come to think of it, have the Cubs taken any HS arms with high picks in the Superfriends era?
Berselius is too lazy to loginQuote Reply
In AAA last year for the Rockies, he struck out 3.5 per 9 innings. It’s difficult to only strikeout that many batters. His 7.17 ERA at the mlb level last year isn’t that surprising. I think he’ll struggle to allow fewer than 6 runs per 9.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius is too lazy to login,
No, but maybe we wouldn’t be having these rotation issues right now if they had. He is old for a high school pitcher so that’s something to consider, but I doubt they take him unless he’s still around in the 3rd or 4th at which point he’d probably just go to college.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Thanks.
He hasn’t said anything about being unsignable. I got the feeling talking to him that he’s leaning toward school, so I’m sure pro teams will too.
RynoQuote Reply
Justin Grimm has been worse than half a win below replacement level by fWAR.
In 14.1 innings.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
At least the Cubs aren’t starting him against a division rival.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I’m predicting the Cubs pass the magical 5 games back by the end of this series.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice work. Good piece, and he seems like a thoughtful guy. Hard to get over how nonchalant that delivery is. Seems like he’ll add a few mph in the next couple years.
MylesQuote Reply
Cubs pitching BABIP this year: .296.
MylesQuote Reply
I am still not worried. I knew shit would happen at some point, particularly with the lack of depth in the rotation, but I didn’t expect it to be this early. As a team, they are out of sorts, but no individual performance has me questioning their abilities like Heyward at the plate did last year. As for the rotation, these Cubs are stacked with young, coveted players.
Wasn’t there this team with a bunch of rookies and a new manager languishing just above .500 two-thirds of the way into the season that finished more than 30 games over? Oh yeah, the 2015 Cubs.
Of course, they got swept by the Mets, so maybe start worrying, Mets fans probably should. Hey guys, remember when the Mets had a rotation that rivaled the on-paper effectiveness of Wood, Prior, Maddux, Zambrano, and Clement?
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think this is what concerns me the most. It’s happened this early and I think the lack of depth is a really big deal considering the velocity loss for two of its best pitchers. If that loss is real, and I have no reason to doubt that it isn’t at this point, there’s not really any reason to expect much of anything positive out of those two this season (and maybe even beyond this year for Hendricks). I’m not that worried about the offense. I figure they’ll hit better with men on and that part of their game will start to even out. Since I think the loss of velocity is real, the rotation I’m looking at is Lester, Lackey and some below average to terrible pitchers after that. So even if (when?) this team gets to the playoffs, they don’t stand much of a chance of doing anything with that rotation.
dmick89Quote Reply
Relevant:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-is-up-with-the-cubs-rotation/
PerkinsQuote Reply
Something else interesting on Hendricks: he basically swapped his four seam and cut fastball usage percentages, relative to last season (in favor of the four seam). The four-seamer is down four ticks relative to the last couple years, and the cutter is down two ticks.
I’m wondering if part of that is just incorrect classification, or maybe he’s lost some run on his fastball and that’s making it less effective. His usage of the sinker, curve, and change have remained relatively constant (though the change has been way less valuable, probably due to the diminished separation from the fastball).
Basically Hendricks should start taking some horse steroids or something to get the velocity back up.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Yeah, I’m really only worried about the starting rotation’s velocity (which is really weird).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
A couple great examples of how quickly a good rotation can fall apart.
dmick89Quote Reply
Even with the injuries, the 2004 Cubs had the best starting pitching in the league.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
The most spectacular rotation collapse I can remember is the Mets circa 1996. Wood and Prior have nothing on Wilson and Pulsipher (though Isringhausen did find success as a short reliever).
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
They did have the mighty Glendon Rusch.
PerkinsQuote Reply
He did–rather improbably–have a very good year. And if Wood and Prior had been able to repeat their 2003 performances, the rotation might have been in 2011 Phillies territory.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
Oh yeah, the 2011 Phillies. I remember how quickly that group declined as well (though all but Hamels were on the wrong side of 30 by quite a bit, IIRC).
This discussion is making me remember the wisdom of building through position players. It’d be really nice if the position players other than Bryant could start coming through.
PerkinsQuote Reply
dmick89,
Hendricks is fine. He’s not Matt Harvey. He never relied on absolute velocity. He was not getting separation in relative velocity early on, but he pitched well in Coors with little hard contact and none of that hard contact up in the air, so his deception had to be working.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Carlos Zambrano is only 35 years old. Crazy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Keith Law and Buster Olney were talking about Theo getting Greinke from AZ. Let’s party like it’s 2015.
He has been really good this year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I think Dallas Keuchel is good again.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
I wonder what it would take to get him. Have to think the salary relief for AZ would bring down the asking price by a bit.
PerkinsQuote Reply
I bet he still throws harder than some players in the current rotation.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
cerulean,
I think Cueto is more likely. They’d have to work out an extension (he has an opt out after this year), but if they go after a starter, I think he’s their primary target.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I think an extension is a pretty big barrier for midseason deals because you effectively have three parties who must concede some element on the deal to make it a win-win-win. If Theo ends up prying Cueto away, it will be an overpay in money and talent. Greinke would take quite a bit of talent, but would probably only be $24M a year (Dbags eating $10M per) instead of nearer $30M a year it would probably take to get Cueto to opt out of his opt out.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Will there be a special new post celebrating Eddie Butler day? It may be the only chance we get.
EdwinQuote Reply
cerulean,
If I’m the Dbacks, I’m not willing to eat any salary in a Greinke trade. It’s why I think he ends up staying put. I wouldn’t be willing to give up anything of any value to acquire him since he has no surplus value. I’m also not too willing to give up anything of value for Cueto either. If the Cubs go after pitching, it should be young pitching, but I doubt any team is too willing to trade it. My bet is the Cubs rotation remains the same the rest of the year. It’s something the Cubs should have addressed in the offseason.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I think they’ll go after someone they think can rebound. Maybe someone like Alex Cobb, if Cobb starts to show signs of improvement. If they go after a young pitcher I’m thinking Micael Fulmer or Marcus Stroman could be good fits. Although with how Fulmer is pitching so far I bet he would be pretty hard to pry away.
EdwinQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/series-preview-chicago-cubs-17-17-st-louis-cardinals-19-14/
berseliusQuote Reply